Hindalco Industries Limited (500440) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the earnings conference call of Hindalco Industries First Quarter Results for FY '27. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Subir Sen, Head of Investor Relations at Hindalco. Thank you, and over to you, Mr. Sen.

Thank you, and a very good morning and evening, everyone. On behalf of Hindalco Industries, I welcome you all to the earnings call for the first quarter of financial year 2027. In this call, we'll refer to the first quarter financial year '27 investor presentation posted on our company's website. Some of the information on this call may be forward-looking in nature and is covered by the safe harbor language on Slide #2 of the set presentation. In this presentation, we have covered the key highlights of our consolidated performance for the first quarter of financial year 2027 versus the corresponding period of the prior year. A segment-wise comparative financial [Audio Gap]

[Audio Gap] stronger cross cement road construction and for back, although fly ash catches were temporarily impacted by the rail [indiscernible]. A key milestone was the Dalton or backfill project. The first initiative of we are supporting situated forest restoration while contribution to the [indiscernible] of additional -- in our copper business, we and traction driven by demand on the bits and ready-mix industries. . Together, these initiatives demonstrate how we are turning industrial byproducts into valuable resources while advancing our sustainability growth. We have made consistent progress in improving water efficiency across our operations. to a series of focus interventions such as adoption of 0 liquid discharge systems, optimization of pooling our operations and reuse practices. These initiatives have helped us significantly reduce dependence on fresh water sources, while improving overall process efficiency. In our aluminum business, higher recycling rates of 29% this quarter, up from 27% a year ago, along with focused optimization initiatives at our Aditya operations helped us reduce fresh water consumption on a year-on-year basis. Sequentially, water consumption was higher in this quarter, mainly due to the seasonal impacts of the summer months. In our copper business as well, specific water consumption improved year-on-year, largely due to lower freshwater required during the planned shutdown. These efforts reflect our continued focus on improving resource efficiency and reducing environmental footprint of our operations. Together, these efforts score our strong commitment to sustainable water stewardship and resource conservation across the value chain. We remain deeply committed to preserving and enhancing our biodiversity in and around our areas of operation. Biodiversity conservation remains an integral part of our sustainability agenda. As of the end of Q1 FY '27, our cumulative tree plantation has crossed 6.3 million trees with nearly 80,000 samplings planted during the quarter, to strengthen green belt coverage and enhance local biodiversity around our operations. We launched the [ Madhu Palanam ] initiatives at Baphlimali bauxite mines to promote apiculture, support poly maker conservation and further enrich local ecosystems. In addition, at Aditya Aluminum Biodiversity park, we have created artificial islands within the water body to support Avian conservation and provide a conducive habitat for Bird Life. These initiatives reflect our commitment to go beyond compliance and actively contribute to ecosystem restoration and biodiversity enhancements in the region where we operate. Renewable energy remains a key pillar of our decarbonization strategy. As of the end of Q1, we have 470 megawatts of renewable energy capacity across solar, wind, hydro resources, along with 35 megawatts of pump storage tie-ups under our round-the-clock renewable energy program. We remain on track to add another 414 megawatts of solar and wind capacity as well as 90 megawatts of RE RTC pump storage capacity during the year. With these additions, our renewable portfolio is expected to reach 884 megawatts of solar wind hydel capacity, along with 125 megawatts of RE RTC capacity by the end of FY '27. These investments underscore our commitment to reduce carbon intensity strengthening energy security and building a more sustainable and future ready Hindalco. Our aluminum specific greenhouse gas footprint stood at 19 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of aluminum in Q1, lower than the comparable period last year. What is encouraging is this is not a onetime improvement, but a part of a sustained structural reduction in our emission intensity. This reflects the progress we are making through our decarbonization initiatives greater use of renewable energy, improved recycling and ongoing operational efficiency. As we move forward, we remain focused on building a globally competitive low-carbon aluminum business, that meets the evolving expectations of our customers while creating long-term sustainable value. Let me now give you a glimpse of the current broader economic environment on Slide 11. IMF projects global growth at 3% in 2026, moderating from 3.5% during 2025. A significant drag is arising from the Middle East and Central Asia region, which is expected to witness slowing growth down to 0.7% in 2026 from 3.7% a year ago due to the direct disruption associated with the conflict. While the war has created a negative supply shock through higher energy and commodity prices, Its impact has been partially offset by strong technology-led investments and demand. The U.S. economy is projected to grow by 2.3% in 2026 versus 2.1% in 2025, supported by favorable financial conditions, fiscal support, technology investments and its next energy exporter status. China is expected to slow from 5% to 4.6% as higher energy prices, persistent uncertainty and structural headwinds weigh on activity. Global growth remains vulnerable to renewed geopolitical tension, commodity price volatility, tighter financial conditions trade fragmentation and a possible correction in the technology-related expectations. Global inflation is projected to rise from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026, reflecting higher energy, food and fertilizer prices and signaling a temporary pause in the global disinflation process. Indian economy continues to navigate this challenging global environment. RBI projects GDP growth in FY '27 at 6.7% and against 7.7% in 2025. The performance of high-frequency indicators suggest that growth momentum remains buoyant. Industry activity continues to hold driven by strong progress in manufacturing. Sustained momentum in the service sector continues to support economic activity while agriculture remains on a stable footing. Domestic demand conditions remain healthy with both rural and urban consumption showing steady growth. Investments remained stable led by government CapEx. However, downside risk persists particularly from geopolitical uncertainties, volatility in global financial markets, external headwinds and weather-related disruptions. Inflation is expected to rise 5% in FY '27 from 2.1% in FY '26. With upside risk emerging from global commodity price shocks, uncertainty around the monsoon and El Nino conditions. Reflecting this balance of opportunities and challenges, the RBI has retained a neutral policy stance allowing it the flexibility to support both sustainable growth and price stability. Moving on to the industry outlook on Slides 12 to 14. On Slide 12, from a pricing perspective, the quarter was marked by significant volatility. Even before the Mid East conflict escalated aluminum prices had strengthened to around INR 3,150 per tonne largely due to the closure of the Mozal smelter. Heightened concerns over potential supply disruptions then drove prices sharply higher, picking at nearly $3,850 per tonne before moderating down to $3,200 following the cease fire. Looking ahead, we remain constructive on aluminum. The market is expected to have a deficit of 1 million tonnes in calendar year '26 compared to pre-conflict expectations of about 0.3 million tonnes. While demand remains relatively subdued, supply-side constraints continue to support market balances and prices. That said, higher prices are likely to incentivize the supply response, including smelter restarts in Europe and West Asia and faster ramp-ups in Indonesia and Southeast Asia, which should help rebalance the market over the medium term. Looking at the global aluminum market in quarter 1 of calendar year '26 Chinese aluminum production grew about 3% year-on-year to nearly 11 million tonnes supported by capacity additions in regions such as Yunnan and inner Mongolia. This was partially offset by capacity rationalization in Shandong. Outside China, production declined by around 8% to 7 million tonnes largely due to disruptions related to the Middle East conflict and the closure of Mozal, although higher output from Indonesia and Europe provided some support. As a result, global aluminum production stood at 18 million tonnes, down 1% year-on-year. On the demand side, China continues to see healthy growth with consumption up 2% to around 12 million tons, driven by strong demand from new energy vehicles and robust exports of semi-fabricated and finished products. However, the property sector remains weak. Outside China, demand declined by around 2% as softer conditions in Europe, North America and Middle East more than offset growth in India. Overall, global aluminum consumption increased 1% year-on-year to approximately 19 million tonnes. While demand is continuing to outpace supply, the global aluminum market remains in deficit by roughly 1 million tonnes this quarter, providing continued support to market fundamentals. Turning to India, demand continues to be relatively resilient and remains ahead of most global markets. We estimate aluminum demand in quarter 1 of FY '27 at around 1.5 million tonnes representing growth of approximately 3% year-on-year. The key growth drivers for automotive demand supported by GST 2.0 related benefits and continued vehicle production growth along with stable demand from the packaging, industrial machinery and consumer durable segment. The only area that saw some moderation was the Electrical segment, where certain contractor-led projects were deferred due to price volatility during the quarter. Overall, India continues to outgrow global aluminum demand and remains 1 of the most attractive long-term growth markets for the industry. Within domestic products, flat rolled products performed particularly well with demand growing by more than 10% year-on-year, driven primarily by strong demand from packaging and consumer durable. Turning to the Indian copper industry on Slide 14. In India, refined copper demand remained somewhat subdued during the quarter, driven by inventory optimization by customers and a more cautious purchasing approach amid uncertainties arising from the West India conflict. Total demand, including domestic supplies and scrap in quarter 1 of FY '27, stood at 359 Kt compared to 396 Kt in the same period last year, reflecting a 9% year-on-year decline. In quarter 2 of calendar year '26, the global copper production grew 2.6% year-on-year to 7.2 million tonnes, while consumption increased more modestly to 7.5 million tonnes, resulting in a net global deficit of around 0.3 million tonnes for the quarter. On the copper concentrate side, the quarter remained quite challenging. Availability of concentrate was tight across the industry and treatments and refining charges stayed at historically low levels at times even negative levels at the range of minus $0.26 to minus $0.30 per pound. This reflects a broader trend where global smelting capacity continues to grow faster than the availability of mine supply. While stronger byproduct credits provided some support to smelter economics, concentrate supply remains the key constraint. Looking ahead, we expect these tight market conditions to persist with concentrate availability and TC/RC is likely to remain under pressure throughout the rest of this year. Coming to Slide 16. Our consolidated business segment EBITDA was up 58% year-on-year at INR 13,481 crores this quarter. The consolidated profit after tax was up 75% on a year-on-year basis at INR 7,013 crores this quarter. At Hindalco India business, our business segment EBITDA was up 73% year-on-year at INR 8,606 crores this quarter, whereas our quarterly profit after tax was INR 5,301 crores, up 86% on a year-on-year basis this quarter. Before we get into the details of our quarterly segment-wise performance, I would like to highlight to structural tailwinds that we believe will provide incremental support to our profitability and long-term growth trajectory. In India, our move to the new tax regime is a structural benefit that permanently lowers our effective tax rate to 26%, creating an uplift to profitability ratios of EPS and return on equity. Secondly, Novelis' dollar-denominated earnings get a significant uplift in consol financials in an environment where the rupee depreciates against the U.S. dollar. Together, these advantages improve the quality, predictability and growth potentials of our earnings, supporting long-term shareholder value creation. Coming to our business-wise performance this quarter on Slide 17. the India upstream aluminum shipments were up 3% year-on-year, and revenues were up 44% year-on-year. Our quarterly EBITDA was a record INR 7,390 crores, up 81% year-on-year. backed by favorable macros and our strong performance across the value chain. This delivered an all-time high EBITDA of $ 2,331 per tonne this quarter. EBITDA margins were at a record 55% and continue to be amongst the best in the global industry. Our hedging positions in aluminum for the rest of FY '27 stands at around 29% on the commodity at $3,004 per tonne and 18% in the currency at INR 91.63 per dollar. Our Indian downstream aluminum business continued to deliver a strong performance, where quarterly shipments were up 3% year-on-year at 104 Kt. Aluminum downstream delivered a quarterly EBITDA of INR 298 crores, up by 30% year-on-year this quarter versus INR 229 crores in the prior period. This was driven by higher volumes, product mix and premiumization. The resulted EBITDA per ton stood a little more than $303 a tonne this quarter. On India's copper business performance this quarter, our overall metal shipments were at 105 Kt, down 16% year-on-year due to the planned maintenance shutdown. The CCR volumes were at 96 Kt, down 8% year-on-year due to tighter market conditions. Our quarterly copper EBITDA stood at a record INR 918 crores, up 36% year-on-year. on account of better realizations in byproducts and operational efficiencies. Our planned maintenance shutdown during the quarter impacted anode production through the concentrate route. Excluding the shutdown effect, our EBITDA per tonne this quarter would have been around $1,000, reflecting the underlying strength of the business. Novelis recorded shipments of 916 Kt, reflecting a decline of 5% year-on-year over 963 KT shipments in the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter stood at $516 million or $563 per tonne, reflecting a 24% and 30% increase, respectively, year-on-year. This includes an $18 million net positive impact from the Sweco fires and is inclusive of $47 million insurance proceeds received during the quarter. With another quarter of solid execution behind us, that run rate cost savings are now at $225 million as we accelerate all cost efficiency initiatives. Looking ahead, we remain committed to our 3-year goal of permanently reducing our cost structure by $350 million to $400 million by FY '28 exit. Additionally, scrap prices continue to move in a positive direction, supporting margin improvement. Turning to Slide 19. We continue to maintain a strong and resilient balance sheet. As of June 2026, our consolidated net debt-to-EBITDA stood at 1.95x below our stated threshold of 2 times. Despite the temporary impact of the Oswego fire incident, our businesses continue to generate healthy cash flows, demonstrating the strength and resilience of our portfolio. We remain disciplined in our capital allocation approach and committed to maintain net leverage at around 2x on a consol basis. At the same time, we continue to strike the right balance between investing in high-growth opportunities that enhance our long-term value and deliver attractive returns to our shareholders. Details of the operational and financial performance in each of our business segments this quarter compared to the corresponding period of last year as well as the previous quarters are covered in further slides and the [indiscernible] to this presentation. Now let me conclude today's presentation with some key takeaways. At Novelis, our first quarter performance once again demonstrated the strength and resilience of the underlying business despite the temporary impact of the Oswego fire last year. We have successfully restarted the mill in June, and it is now stated ramping up steadily towards normal operating levels. We view the impact of the outage largely as a timing issue rather than a structural 1 with a significant portion of the current year's headwind expected to be recovered over the course of the next fiscal year. Importantly, our long-term EBITDA per tonne guidance of $600 remains unchanged. This confidence is supported by the accelerated execution of our $350 million to $400 million structural cost reduction programs which is delivering sustainable improvements in productivity, efficiency and margins across the businesses. At the same time, we continue to make significant progress on our growth agenda. The 600 kt Bay Minette greenfield rolling and recycling facility, which is on track for completion this year represents a transformational milestone for Novelis. With the initial commissioning of key assets already underway, Bay Minette will further strengthen our operating footprint, expand our recycling capabilities and position Novelis for its next phase of long-term profitable growth. Coming to our India business, we have once again delivered an exceptional quarter, achieving record and industry-leading EBITDA per tonne in margins across both our upstream and downstream aluminum businesses alongside a record EBITDA performance in copper. This reflects the strength of our integrated business model, relentless focus on operational excellence, disciplined cost management and consistent execution across market cycles. On the growth front, all our key upstream expansion projects, including the Aditya Alumina refinery and aluminum smelter expansions are progressing well and remain on track. These projects are degree to our strategy of doubling upstream capacities while strengthening our integration and cost leadership. We are also making steady progress on our captive coal mine development projects, including Chakla, Bandha and Meenakshi. As these mines become operational, they will strengthen our resource security lower production costs and support margin expansion and further enhance the earnings profile of our upstream business. On the downstream side, we continue to make good progress on our growth projects. The Aditya FRP plant is ramping up well and is already making a meaningful contribution to our all production. We also commissioned our Aditya battery foil and the Taloja AC Fins facilities last quarter, and both projects are progressing well with customer qualification process and currently underway. In specialty alumina or precipitated hydrate facility is advancing through customer approval stages, bringing us closer to commercialization. In copper, the business continues to demonstrate resilience and its strong execution. Our copper smelter expansion, e-waste recycling projects and other sustainability-led initiatives are progressing as planned. In addition, the inner Group tubes project will further strengthen our downstream portfolio and enhance our value-added product capability. Looking ahead, our strategic priorities are clear in India. We are accelerating our upstream expansion in both aluminum and copper while building a significantly strong downstream portfolio with the ambition of delivering a fourfold increase in EBITDA downstream EBITDA by FY '30. At Novelis, we remain focused on executing the mid- to long-term 330 strategy. which is aimed at driving sustainable growth, higher profitability and stronger returns. Overall, Hindalco is exceptionally well positioned for the future, backed by our integrated business model, strong resource base, disciplined capital allocation and growth investments across the value chain, we remain committed to our purpose of engineering better futures while creating long-term sustainable value for our stakeholders. Thank you very much for your attention, and the forum is now open for questions.

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Satyadeep Jain with AMBIT Capital. .

Thank you. Mr. Pai, I just wanted to check on and clarify. In the Novelis 10-Q, it is mentioned that Novelis will pay up to 0.25% of revenue as royalty to an entity, not profits a promoter entity. Can you clarify what that is? And why is that a being paid from Novelis?.

So I think that as far as the brand royalty is concerned, let me just give you an update. I think the ownership of the Aditya Birla brand has remained with the Birla Group Holdings Private Limited. And in the past, this BGH has not charged any royalty for the use of ABG marks all these years, making it 1 of the exceptions among large Indian conglomerates. So what is happening is that this brand royalty, this framework marks the transition from family-driven stewardship to structured governance. So I think investing in the brand, keeping it better for the future. So I think Novelis declared it in its 10-Q Hindalco comes under SEBI regulation. So under SEBI LODR all our related party transactions will be disclosed biannually through exchange filings due in October. So I think even Hindalco will be paying that same type of royalty to Birla Group Holdings Private Limited. .

And Hindalco would also make 0.25%.

Yes. And it's capped at INR 225 crores. And I think it's important to note for us this royalty amount is below what we say is our materiality pressure. .

That INR 225 crores is for 6 months for this year, right? But otherwise, on a same basis.

For the year. .

For this year because it's a from September, but otherwise for next year should be that INR 225 crores cap.

It's for 12 months capped at INR 225 crores.. .

Okay. For Novelis you're saying, right? .

And Hindalco will be exactly the same. .

Okay. So this is going to apply -- I'm sure you can't talk about other entities, but it's going to apply generate to all the other entities also.

I cannot. ..

Yes. So the other 1 was just I know Novelis again, we thought we'll get more clarity on. There have been many investor questions on the $70 million of tariff, in fact, at Novelis, I know -- tried to clarify that on the call. But is that -- if we exclude that $70 million, it looks like EBITDA per tonne would have been more than $600 per tonne for Novelis. Just trying to understand what -- why did the tariff impact increase significantly from $24 million last quarter to $70 million? And why is that not excluded from EBITDA to report an adjusted EBITDA .

Steve, Dave, do you want to...

Okay. So yes, certainly. No, we did not take it out of adjusted EBITDA, number one. Number two, I mean I can basically just amplify what I said on the call the other day. You are to think about this as related to the fact that we are not able to produce enough yet in the U.S. We have to depend on more imports. As far as capacity is concerned, theoretically, if all the assets start running optimally, we will have enough onshore capacity. But given the fact that we have had to reconfigure so many things post Oswego fire and particularly in this quarter, we have had to really keep our customers. So this is related to keeping customers as much as we can for lease service. So net-net, this is an impact that will stay with us for some time. Now be careful about literally sort of adding that back and taking the EBITDA per ton at over $600. I mean I would not recommend you if you do those kind of adjustments. There are many moving parts on a macro level, metal prices and so on. I mean, we just need to be careful. For the next couple of quarters, there will be some level of tariffs. I cannot say exactly how much. I mean we still need to work on reconfiguring our supply chain. So be careful about just literally adding it back all around telling you is that it's not like the 70, unfortunately will go to 0 until the time we have just set all our supply chains back in order. So that's really the best answer that I can provide to you. .

So just, let's say, once Oswego is up and running in 2 quarters from now. So this $70 million, basically, when Oswego production was impacted, some of it was being fulfilled by procuring metal from the competitors in U.S. It seems like this quarter, you used some of the other facilities to bring more import into U.S. Is that correct? And so the impact was mainly to fulfill Oswego shipments in 1Q? And what about the other rules and all other materials that you were seeing tariff impact in the previous quarters. That impact was not there at all this quarter?

Satyadeep we are really getting into the weeds and to explain the entire supply chain is really complicated. I think . Let's just bring this back into sort of why this quarter, why not so much earlier quarter? Look, as much as possible, we are trying to sort of at dependence on third parties and use our own system because there are benefits of quality of reliability of more consistent eases much as possible. We are sort of trying to use our system, our network to bring in materials. Earlier, we had to really really get a lot of third party and that goes in the cost of the fire. So be careful. What we get from third parties goes in the cost of the fire, which is below the line. This is from our own network. We don't basically classify this tariff below the line in cost of fire. And that is the difference. So I'm not kind of -- it's very difficult to explain the entire material flow and the supply chain. I can only sort of give you a direction and guidance to say that we'll have to live with some level of tariffs in the coming quarters. And it is not like Oswego is up and everything sort of just start going back to normal. No, it takes time. It takes time. There are materials in the pipeline. There is production that is already happening. So it is not like you can time things so perfectly, right? So that's why I'm staying away from giving very specific guidance -- let's just take the next quarter, by that time, you will have a little more clarity, and we will talk about it again. for now, I would leave it at this .

Next question comes from the line of Pinakin with HSBC.

Just 2 quick questions. Keeping prices aside for a moment, -- there was an operational impact in aluminum downstream and copper. Should we expect these volumes to recover from 2Q on one?

Yes. I think the volumes in Q2, both for copper and downstream aluminum will be higher. I mean, as I said in my prepared remarks, the electrical sector was a little bit weak. In copper, we had a planned shutdown of a smelter -- so I think for making the volumes in 2 quarters, both for aluminum downstream and copper will be higher.

Got it. My second question is, at the consol level, we still see an exceptional hit of roughly INR 300 crores in this quarter. There was no exceptional onetime impact in Novelis. So given Oswego has restarted, should we continue to see exceptional losses from second quarter in the consol, how should we look at this? .

Pinakin it's a difference between U.S. GAAP and Ind AS. In Ind AS, we have to show it as exceptional. I think in U.S. GAAP, it comes in -- so we can explain that to you off-line. It's a difference between U.S. GAAP and Ind AS/

So given Oswego plant in [indiscernible], should we expect this quantum to reduce or at the consol level where we see a similar .

No, no, no. As the Oswego plant restarts, then it should go away. .

It should go away. Got it.

The insurance recoveries will start to come in this.

Okay. Okay. Okay. And my last question is just on the net debt guidance for the year. As we heard from the Novelis call of their expectations of leverage come down below 4x at the consol Hindalco level, should we expect the net debt to be steady at these levels as of March and come down because the underlying cash flows are very, very strong .

Yes. I think on the India side, Pinakin, this is a high CapEx year for us. So I don't expect our net debt-to-EBITDA to materially change across the coming quarters. So I think that Novelis net debt to EBITDA starts to come down in Q4, then the consol should go down.

The next question comes from the line of Sumangal Nevatia with Kotak Securities.

So first question on the downstream aluminum business, the $300 margin multi-quarter high. So is it something unsustainable there? Or with the ramp-up now of the FRP plant, should we sustainably see these sort of levels in the future as well? .

So I think we have been sort of targeting more around the $250. There is also with the metal premiums and all going off, we have gone up we have been able to hold our pricing in the downstream. So I think we will have to -- because the downstream pricing net to the customer is metal plus MJP plus the conversion premium. So high MJP has helped us get those margins on the downstream also up. So I would say more around $250 is a more sustainable number. .

Understood. Just a couple of more clarifications. On the royalty, for how long is it fixed, then I mean, will it come for a review every now and then in terms of percentage of sales? .

I don't know, Sumangal, I think that I would expect this to be there for a while at these levels. .

Okay. Okay. But generally, we've seen there is an agreement for 3 years, 5 years and then it is reviewed. So no such time period, you have any clarity today? .

I don't have the clarity I can check and get back to you.

Sure, sir. That's fine. And I just want to understand for next year FY '28, what sort of domestic coal -- sorry, captive coal production are we expecting for the full year from Chakla and Bandha.

Chakla back to commence, we are expecting about 1 million tonnes from Chakla, Bandha will only start from the middle of the year. So I would say about 0.5 million tonnes for Bandha.

So 1.5 million tonnes for next financial year, FY '28, I'm asking.

Yes. Yes.

Okay. And just last thing, do we expect any contribution from Aditya refinery and the Phase 1 center any time next it's largely going to be end of year and then FY '29 contribution?

I think FY '29 because it commissions December to January of this fiscal -- sorry, next fiscal. So I would put FY '29 as the full -- meaningful numbers coming in.

Got it. And just 1 last bookkeeping. There's an intercompany profit in the India financials. What exactly is this increased significantly quarter-on-quarter INR 750-odd crores .

Yes, I think that's because -- yes, intercompany elimination because an upstream sells to downstream and there is a mismatch between the price at which it was bought and then we have to revalue the LME goes up. So that is sitting in that correction there. Better we will explain to you offline.

Sure. I'll follow up. .

Next question comes from the line of Pallav Agarwal with Antique Stockbroking Ltd.

So the first question was, is there any revision to our quarterly EBITDA guidance? Do we expect sulfuric acid prices to stay elevated? .

Well, they are staying elevated. So I think it would be fair to say a similar number like Q1 for Q2.

Okay. And maybe some tapering off in the second half? .

I hope not. Because with the TC/RC so low, we are counting on sulfur. See, sulfur prices are impacted by West Asia crisis. So it's sulfuric acid prices are driven by the sulfur index. If you follow the sulfur index, it's pretty high right now.

Sure, sir. Also, if you could just give us the quantum of external alumina sales this quarter. .

The external Alumina sales, we actually missed 1 ship. So it was 138 kt. So next quarter, we will be selling about 190 Kt. We missed 1 ship sale. That's why the volume is 138 kt this quarter.

Sure. And lastly, are we seeing an uptick in global alumina prices because there was historic lows. So are we picking up? .

They are slightly picking up. I mean, right now, it's around 330, 340. So yes, it's a slight uptick, yes. .

Next question comes from the line of Indrajit Agarwal with CLSA.

Firstly, a bookkeeping question. How has the cash cost being quarter-over-quarter in this quarter? And how do we expect this next quarter? .

Yes. So I think this quarter, it was up by 5% Q1 versus Q4. Actually, around 4%. I think I had guided 5%. It came in more or less at the same level. And in the get, I think actually, we benefited from some of the low-cost inventories during quarter 1. And quarter 2, the coal prices in the northern region have gone up in the monsoon period. So we are expecting maybe another 5% to 6% increase Q2 to Q1. .

Sure. Secondly, if you can help with what is in the MJP physical market .

See MJP. Sorry, go ahead, please finish your question. .

That has been elevated for a site. So how do you see that panning out? .

So the MJP is up because the Middle East supplies to Japan and Korea have been impacted. So I think that as long as that metal is out of the market, the MJP will stay slightly high, and probably next year, it will come down once Middle East smelters are back.

So are we changing our domestic and export sales mix because of this? Or not .

I think that we certainly are trying to on the exports we try to get as much as we can. But no, I mean, we -- because of our downstream requirements as well and the Indian market is also still giving us a fairly good return. So I think we will try to catch a bit more exports, but not significantly change, no.

Next question comes from the line of [ Amit Lahotia ] with Aditya Birla Capital Institutional Equities.

My first question is on the copper business. So given the TC/RCs continue to remain active and byproduct prices are also normalizing, especially gold -- and then China is not closing its excess smelting capacity. How do we think about the backward integration plan in the medium term? Can we look for more copper deposits within the country and move towards self dependence for the concentrate supply? That's my first question. .