Icade (ICAD) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Hello, everyone. I'm delighted to be here with you and Icade's management for this Annual Investor Day in the beautiful Pont de Flandre business park, which is an integral part of Icade story. Further to what I said in late July, Icade's 3 business lines once again proved their resilience, thanks to solid financial results and a strong performance as of September 30 in a more challenging environment. Olivier and the Executive Committee members will provide more details in a few minutes, with special emphasis placed on the sound fundamentals underpinning all of our markets and the strength of our balance sheet. We look to the future with confidence. Icade is well on track to deliver its financial year 2022 targets and objectives. This is the case for our 3 business lines and our look on strategy, which was recently approved by SBTi. Thanks to Icade's focus on ESG, Icade is among the most sustainable French companies according to Le Point magazine's annual ranking published last week. The Board and the management are ready to face the challenges of a changing financial environment and committed to ensuring performance over the long term. The Board and the management are also actively working on the Icade mid-term strategy. We'll provide further information about this in the coming months. I thank for your attention, and we'll now turn it over to Olivier.

Thank you. Thank you very much, Frederic, and good morning, everyone. So welcome to our 2022 Investor Day. So we are delighted to welcome you for those who are physically present here in the Pont de Flandre, our office campus located in Paris. And for those who are not with us, the campus Pont de Flandre is a bit like a very small Canary Wharf with more than added -- no, you are not agree, I think it's a bit Canary Wharf. Now with more than 100,000 square meters and more than 5 hectares, this campus is a bit unique in Paris. I really don't think that you will find another private piece of land of 5 hectares inside Paris. It's even better than a building in Champs Élysées, and we can compare we have both at Icade. So welcome also to those that are behind their screen in Paris, London or Amsterdam. So the program of the day is a presentation of about 1 hour and 45 minutes by some of the ExCo member, followed by a Q&A session. And then we will have a lunch buffet. And at 1:30 p.m., a visit of the campus Pont de Flandre for about 40, 45 minutes. So the agenda of the day. Our 2022 Investor Day is the opportunity for us, for Icade. So first, to have a look backward at the strategic plan that is coming to an end in December this year. Second, to provide a detailed update on our operational activities. And third, to update our guidance for 2022 and to elaborate on first outlook for 2023. So let's start now, moving to Slide 6. So I know we all know that what is important is the future. Nevertheless, I think it's useful, not to say necessary, to remind what we have delivered during the last 4 years. As already said, 2022 is the last year of the current strategic plan that started in 2019. And as a reminder, this plan followed a successful first 2016-2018 plan that had been completed 1 year ahead of schedule. And the second plan that was announced in July 2018 was based on 4 pillars that you have on the screen. So for the office division, it was to be a leading player in the office market in the Greater Paris region and also in major cities outside of Paris. Second pillar of the plan, to be a European leader in healthcare real estate. Third pillar to be a key player in property development. And finally, to have Icade acting as best-in-class in CSR and innovation. And the plan aim also to deliver an attractive cash-on-cash return, dividend yield and value creation. So while 2019 started off very well with a total return of 10.8%, it is clear that the other triggers of the plan have been impacted and disrupted by significant shocks and crisis. As we will see in the following slide, I really do think it's fair to say that even if some targets were not reached, Icade has been able to cope with the complex environment that was ours during the last 3 years. So where are we at the end of 2022? What have we delivered? Let's move now to Slide 7, and let's start with the Office division. So the current plan included, in particular, an acceleration of the rotation within the portfolio in order to recycle the capital deriving from disposal of mature asset in our billing development pipeline. So 2019 demonstrated more than a good operational execution, with more than EUR 1 billion sold in 2019 and a pipeline amounting to more than EUR 2 billion at the end of 2019 and more than 210,000 square meters of offices let or relet. Then we had the COVID-19 crisis and the impact on leasing activity due mainly to lockdowns, increasing work from home and corporate's focus on other matters than their corporate real estate portfolio. But look at what office portfolio has delivered during the last 3 years with such headwinds. In terms of disposal, the team managed to dispose for an additional EUR 1.1 billion of assets at pricing and cap rates always below 5%, reflecting the attractiveness of the portfolio. And most, not to say all the transaction, more than EUR 2.1 billion were executed above NAV valuation. Our investment policy has been adapted as soon as 2020. with the slowdown in office scheme launched on a speculative basis. And recently, an opportunistic selectiveness in new investment in order to take into account the new financial environment and to side the first appealing opportunities that we do see that are available on the market. Finally and maybe it's the most important, our leasing activity remain very strong throughout the period with close to 750,000 square meters signed or renewed since 2019. So Icade is every year among the 3 most active landlords in the letting market. And we also demonstrated our ability to keep our significant tenant such as AXA, which is our most important tenant in the office portfolio. So we do think that our Office portfolio has proved to be more than resilient. Even more than resilient, it remains, in our view, very attractive in the current environment, both in terms of the cap rate at 5.6% on average and a strong cash generation. So Emmanuelle will explain how we are adapting our asset management policy to the current environment. Let's now -- to Slide 8 and to summarize what happened about Healthcare. So we delivered the growth, and that was the plan. When we look at the numbers and the portfolio valuation at the end of June 2022, it more than doubled over the period at EUR 6.8 billion. We delivered also a successful diversification in nursing home and also in diversification abroad outside of France with 4 new countries. The sanitary crisis has clearly reinforced the private Healthcare sector in France and in many European countries and particularly for acute care asset. And as a reminder, acute care asset are the bulk of our portfolio. The last 4 years also highlighted, clearly, the cyclical nature of this asset class with continuous cap rate compression in the market over the period. So it's fair to say that we have not delivered the liquidity event that we said at the IPO that we had announced for Icade Santé, not a good news, clearly, as we were looking for EUR 800 million of new equity to finance the growth of the portfolio. But to be positive, 1 year after the postponement of the IPO, we still continue to benefit from the appealing cash flows of the portfolio as we have not diluted and as we kept our stake of 58% in Icade Santé. And I can confirm that the liquidity is still on our road map. Xavier will come back to that. Let's move now to Slide 9 and talk about Icade Promotion, our development subsidiary. So the beginning of the plan was marked by the arrival of a new management team for the division led by Emmanuel Desmaizières. Emmanuel and the team have elaborated an ambitious road map focused on growth and profitability. So although the business was significantly impacted by the COVID crisis in 2020 and 2021, just to remind you the shutdowns on all our construction site, the recovery post-COVID crisis was very quick and very strong. Development business fundamentals, notably driven by a strong demand for residential products. It's at least one -- not to say the only positive impact of the COVID-19 crisis. And Icade's good commercial performance allowed us to just postpone by 1 year our financial goals by the end of 2025. And Emmanuel will come back to the road map of Icade Promotion in a few minutes. So to summarize this introduction on the current plan, on Slide 10, I would like to emphasize that -- so Icade remain operationally very active over the period in all our 3 businesses and prove, in our mind, its ability to adapt its business model to a very fast-changing environment. In terms of financial performance, Icade posted a solid annual growth of its net current cash flow per share over the period of plus 4%, instead of a target of plus 4.5%. But close to that, clearly, the impact of the different crisis. And our dividend policy remains among one of the most attractive of the sector. So now let's talk about the future. For sure, it's more important than the past. There is a new financial environment, new level of inflation, new level of interest rates ahead of us that we have already started to integrate. And I now leave the floor to my colleagues, starting with Emmanuelle Baboulin, Head of the Office Property Division, who will elaborate both on the office market and also the dynamics of our portfolio. Emmanuelle, the floor is yours.

Thank you, Olivier. Good morning, everyone. I'm indeed going to give you some key points about our activity, our portfolio and the strategy of the office investment business line. First of all, some figures about the office market. The market is clearly favorable to qualitative assets. In Paris region, the take-up is normalizing. It's closing the gap with a 10-year rate. For 2022, 2.1 billion square meters are expected, an increase of 10% compared to 2021 and only 5% under the 10-year average. 55 transactions above 5,000 square meters are expected this year. And in September, 42% of the transaction are done for surfaces above 10,000 square meters. The headline rents are growing, especially for qualitative assets, despite a rising vacancy in most markets. Furthermore, it's fair to say that the incentives granted to the tenants are increasing in all markets, exceeding 30% in certain sectors like La Défense, a slide in Appendix gives you details for the different occasions. The markets in French regions remain dynamic, especially in Lyon and Marseille where Icade has new and qualitative assets and ongoing developments. The take-up in these cities is increasing. The expected take-up for 2022 is 7% above the 10-year range in Lyon and almost 20% above in Marseille with a large supply of new buildings. In the same time, the vacancy is decreasing and the prime rents in these cities keep rising plus 6% over a year. About the investment market, EUR 28 billion are expected in 2022. Investors remain selective, 65% of the investments are dedicated to core office assets. Foreign investors represent 35% of the investments, of which 50% are from North America. All these indicators reflect a dynamic market, and that still benefits to Icade. Now let's focus on Icade's activity on Slide 13. As Olivier highlighted, we continue to be very attractive on leasing activity. We signed, over the last 9 months, more than 78,000 square meters, of which 50% will be effective in the last quarter of this year or beyond. 40% were signed during the last quarter, reflecting a real acceleration. It demonstrates our ability to attract new tenants, and it allows us to expect an increase of our financial occupancy rate by the end of 2022. 21 leases already signed for 65,000 square meters will start in the future and will generate EUR 22 million in annualized headline rates that will contribute positively in occupancy rate. Another interesting point to notice is a very limited tenant departures in 2022. Beyond attracting new tenants, the teams are very active to retain our tenants. We managed to renew 15 leases for 30,000 square meters without rental pay reduction and with a limited negative reversion. In addition, we currently have discussions for lease renewals, anticipating the future break for 65,000 square meters. The successful leasing activity is not fully reflecting in the financial statement yet and will sustain the cash flow generation in the coming years. Now a focus on Orly/Rungis business park, where the leasing activity is very dynamic. 40,000 square meters have been signed or renewed since the beginning of the year, of which 26,000 square meters only in Q3. We presented more than EUR 6 million in annualized headline rates. The rents are increasing, especially for light industrial premises. Indeed, we observed a constant increase of the level of rent over the 5 last years. It's now at EUR 160 per square meter. We can notice that the take-up in the park has increased between 4,000 and 6,000 square meters per year for 3 years. The scarcity of light industrial premises and labs as well as a strong demand for this surfaces are growth opportunity for Orly/Rungis business park. I'm on Slide 15. At the same time, the asset rotation continues actively and successfully. We already achieved the full year disposal plan. It represents more than EUR 600 million with an average yield of less than 4.5%. These disposals have been completed in line with the gross asset value as of December 2021. We already signed preliminary agreements for EUR 100 million for assets, which will be sold in 2023. In addition, we have signed an opportunistic investment of EUR 63 million. This asset located in Nanterre is fully let to first-rate tenants and present a potential for redevelopment and value creation to be generated in the future. I would like now to talk about our pipeline. I'm in Slide 16. We have refueled our pipeline with new projects like M Factory, I will tell you more later. We also launched projects coming from our own portfolio, such as Next in Lyon. We have a specific business case on it. We obviously adjusted the pipeline to the market conditions with divestified and attractive projects like data centers, hotels or prime retails. Eight projects have been already launched, representing EUR 700 million of investments, more than 100 square meters and EUR 37 million of potential rent. Seven projects not yet committed represent EUR 900 million of investments. The pipeline has a yield on cost of 5.2%. The projects already started our pre-let for more than 50%, that is 11 points more than in June. Four projects will be delivered in 2023, and 3 of them are already fully pre-let. Furthermore, we are increasing the share of developments in regions CBD, in particular in Lyon and Marseille, where the vacancy rates are very low and the demand important. As of today, our pipeline development margin is anticipated at 20%. One of our ongoing developments is a new office building of 6,000 square meters at the heart of Marseille Euromed. For this project, in order to develop a mix of uses, we sold a plot of land to Icade Promotion for the development of 129 residential units. This building is already pre-let 1 year before its delivery, which is expected at the end of 2023. It will generate EUR 1.8 million of rent, and the expected value creation is EUR 10 million. The yield on cost is 6.6%. Another example on Slide 18 is a building named Next in Lyon Part-Dieu. This asset, which was acquired in 2017, was fully let to Framatome until the end of 2021. And just after Framatome left, we began the demolition works before the refurbishment, 15,800 square meters of new offices with a wonderful rooftop and co-working spaces. We managed to fully pre-let this building this year, almost 2 years before its delivery. We demonstrate our capacity to transform the building to make it more efficient and perfectly adapted to the new ways of working. The rent is 40% more than the former one, EUR 5.2 million. The expected value creation is EUR 20 million with a yield on cost at 5.3%. We also have significant value creation potential deriving from our land banks located in Rungis and Portes de Paris business parks. They represent a residual constructability of 500,000 square meters with very conservative valuation at EUR 100 million. To accelerate their development, we diversify the projects. For example, in Rungis, we worked on a new plan, which includes light industrial premises, residents, co-living and retail in synergy with Icade Promotion and in agreement with the city Mayor. In Portes de Paris, we started studies for a new data center, a turnkey for a historical tenant of the business park. Indeed, Equinix has been one of Icade's long-term tenants in the Portes de Paris business park for the past 20 years. Equinix is a leading provider of data center services, and it's experiencing strong growth. They need new spaces. So we use an obsolete building and a deserted multi-storey carpark to build a new building of 10,800 square meters to be used by Equinix. We already have an agreement for a lease of 9 years without break option, generated EUR 2.2 million of annual rental income for an investment of around EUR 30 million. The completion is expected in 2025. The yield on cost is over 5.5%, and a double-digit levered internal rate of return is expected. At the same time, we keep increasing the services providing to our clients with a platform, especially designed to ensure the best work experience and optimal well-being. Thanks to innovative technology to ensure the best connectivity on dedicating building app and occupancy management solution, we facilitate the lease of our buildings users and optimize the uses of workplaces. We help companies to adopt the best practices that lead to higher performance and a greater ability to attract talent. At least our business line, Imagine'Office, provides flexibility with turnkey office solution. As of October 2022, it represents 870 workstations very well located, on-demand meeting rooms and adaptable spaces. The opening of 3 or 4 new locations is expected per year to enhance the flexibility offered to our clients. The market trends are clear, more flexibility, more services and managed offices. In that respect, we follow not to say anticipate, the new needs of the users. As a conclusion, let me remind you our objectives: At first, secure cash flows by active asset management activity, including anticipating lease renewals; continue strong asset rotation, accepted to be net disinvestor while keeping on creating value with new projects and investments to upgrade the quality of our assets; diversifies the development pipeline to cope with the new environment, with new products such as data centers, laboratories, light industrial premises or residentials; make opportunistic investments on assets, offering high yields and value creation; improve further the services provided to our tenants; and obviously, increase the environmental performance of our portfolio and maintain high level of investment on the reduction of its carbon footprint. Flora will tell you more about this point. Thank you for your attention, and I now leave the floor to Xavier.

Thank you, Emmanuelle, and good morning, everyone. I see many familiar faces. But for those who don't know me, I'm Xavier Cheval, I'm the CEO of Icade Santé, the Healthcare Property Investment division of Icade. I'm very happy to be here with you today and to give you an update on where we stand right now on our road map for the coming months. So my presentation will flow through the following sections: First, an overview of today's business environment in the Healthcare sector, which remains supportive to operators; second, a reminder of real estate business model and how it proves to be resilient in the current context; third, considerations on where the investment market stands given the current long-term rates; and last but not least, what are our strategic priorities and actions for the coming months. Starting on Slide 24. So I would like first to remind you that Healthcare real estate is a monovalent and fit for one purpose, which is hosting the activities of the care operators or tenants. So our first topic of interest has to be the underlying healthcare market, its long-term trends and how it may be currently challenged. Looking long term, continuous need for care drives demand for our specific assets. This is supported by demographic data about the aging of the population. If you look at the chart, the number of seniors over 70 will increase by 50% in the coming 30 years in Western Europe. And this is further confirmed if you consider that healthcare spending is fueled by innovation and is peaking after 65, notably for hospital care. It represents an average 3 to 4x the expenditures of an adult between 28 and 64 years old. So more elderly people means more need for facilities, whether hospitals or later nursing homes and despite public-funded policies on prevention and home care. As the recent COVID-19 crisis has emphasized it, healthcare is a top priority for public policies. Healthcare is considered as a key area of focus and budget efforts. Looking at the French market, where 85% of our portfolio lies, the government announced increases by 4% to 5% of the funding for nursing homes and hospitals for 2023, which supports the growth in the sector, global turnover. So in the context of high inflation for operators, it is certainly required that the government takes action, and we actually see a combination of general measures regarding tariff increases and specific measures supporting our tenants' businesses and the cost of energy. So for instance, for acute care operators, EUR 250 million of public support has been granted to the private-for-profit sector in 2022 to offset part of the cost of energy hikes. On the other hand, nursing home residents will benefit from the same energy shields as the general population for the year, and this will help most of our tenants in the sector. So nevertheless, we are aware of the situation and we expect more cautiousness from the operators when executing -- when they execute their growth plans in the coming months. I'm on Slide 26 now coming to real estate business. So as a landlord, we have built our success on lease agreements, which are tied to inflation in the long run, thus offering a good level of protection against inflation. So first, our rents are fixed and then indexed with an inflation component. In France, for instance, the majority of our leases is tied to ILC, which is a 75% inflation and 25% construction costs. And this index grew by 4.4% in Q2 2022. Please remind -- please keep in mind that our rents are fixed and then indexed, so there is no direct link to the underlying activity level. Regarding lease maturity. Our lease maturity schedule, it's on the chart on the bottom right. It is long term, and less than 8% of our total leases have to be renewed by the end of 2024. So there is actually limited room for negotiation or lease adjustments. Having said that, we are aware that requests may arise in the context of reduced profitability or earnings growth for our tenants due to inflation, so we intend to remain constructive in our approach. And for certain cases, we will be able to discuss specific lease arrangements. Moreover, our tenant base consists in the largest and best-in-class operators, with namely Elsan and Ramsay, the top acute care players in France; Korian and KOS, top operators in nursing homes. These players are probably more stable and resilient than the average. Thus, we have recorded a very high rental collection historically, and this proves the resilience of the underlying sector. On top of that, we benefit generally from a very sound underwriting scheme. So first at the facility level for the rent collection; second at the mother company level through a corporate guarantee; and third, we can eventually claim on tenants receivables from the French social security for French tenants. I would like to add that we monitor on the yearly basis our tenant's financials, and in particular, we compute the EBITDA-to-rent ratio, which we believe stands actually with -- currently, with a comfortable average level, even when considering a high pressure on operators margin internal days. So all in all, this leads to a high visibility on our future cash flows. So now on Slide 28, some input on the 2022 investment activity. So in the recent period, what was the investment market like? So as we can see from market data, in healthcare assets in our core countries, there has been a relative slowdown over the first 9 months of the year versus 2021, which was a record year together with 2020. So clearly, different forces are at play. On one side, rising interest rates is certainly slowing deals progression. On the other side, the lenders side, appetite remain remains very strong and especially for equity-funded players or asset managers raising equity from the retail market. So over the first 9 months, just to illustrate that, over the first 9 months of the year, more than EUR 1 billion of net inflows from French retail asset managers were recorded for healthcare and education assets only. So beyond the current context, looking long term, we believe that healthcare will benefit from very favorable European demographic trends and on top of that, from the huge number of beds still to be built given the demographic. On Slide 29, I would like to talk about the current yield environment. It's clearly one of the main market drivers. So I will make limited predictions, but I would like to show what occurred over the past years. So on the left side, you can see a chart with in dark blue, the 10-year French government bond. And in light blue, lighter blue, acute care and nursing homes yields in France. So showing that based on historical data, you can see that there is a relatively weak correlation between healthcare asset yields and risk rate. Another key comment is that, today, the premium of healthcare assets of a risk-free rate has reduced to a level that is, in fact, similar to the one that was observed in the late 2000s. So at this time, the market was clearly relatively less liquid than it is today. On the right side, and given recently observed moves across real estate asset classes and the conversation we have with our appraisers, we clearly believe that yield expansion for healthcare assets should stay limited over the coming quarters. This asset class offers infrastructure-like protection. It shows a cyclicity and probably allows to better absorb shocks. So now on Slide 30. And given this new context on market and yields and based on our business model, what is our short and mid-term road map? So no surprise, given the rising interest rates, first, we need to adapt our investment base and to improve both selectivity and discipline when acquiring assets. So similarly, we remain very disciplined when executing our current pipeline of greenfield projects. Second, as an asset manager, we have the potential to permanently upgrade and add value to our existing portfolio, which is key, especially in acute care as we partner with our key tenants. So in the next slide, I will come back on the way we add value to our portfolio in an effective manner. Third, in 2023, we will keep executing our CSR strategy. We will notably ramped up on our low carbon transition ambitions, accelerating on energy performance audit. A word now on how we see our investment approach in this new context, so I'm on Slide 31. So selectivity clearly will apply while maintaining a strong focus on Southern Europe's growth potential and lower equipment rate. So our investment approach is to diversify our tenant base while going international. And extra care, as I said already, will be put on the CSR performance of the facilities we are looking at. On the financing side, we benefit from our strong balance sheet. We currently, at the level of Icade Santé, an LTV below 34% including duties. So we have a strong credit ratios and a confirmed BBB+ rating by Standard & Poor's. Hedging is a question. Currently, our hedging ratio stands at 76%, and we'll consider opportunities to raise this hedging ratio. We believe currently that we have a headroom to absorb the majority of the current increase in cost of debt. Now on Slide 32. So I would like to give you more light on the existing assets we are currently extending or refurbishing for our tenants within our portfolio. So indeed, our portfolio embeds value-adding asset enhancements. So this currently represents 15 projects for more than EUR 220 million, which is more tilted towards French acute care facilities. So extension means that we add operating theaters, additional services for existing specialties, such as eye care and [indiscernible], sometimes new post-acute care space, medical centers as well. When we restructure an asset, it consists often in transforming an existing surface to get more ambulatory care. So among the largest projects I would like to outline to, with an amount over EUR 30 million. So one of it is an extension of a private hospital we have near Dunkerque in Northern France. We are also extending a facility in Bordeaux, the Saint-Augustin Private Hospital with a new medical center dedicated to cardiology. And we are currently adding new projects to this pipeline, and this will be discussed in the coming months. So let's have a look now on how we work on a few projects we recently did for tenants. So on Slide 33, projects we made with Elsan. So Elsan is one of our main tenants and operates 50 assets we own. So on the left-hand side, you can see Le Parc Polyclinic in Caen, that's in Normandy in France. So back in 2019, we discussed the extension project of Elsan, which was to create new medical surfaces while partially restructuring the existing facility. So this project allows the operator to better manage the flows of patients and to increase its operational performance and turnover. So now this project is completed. Surface was increased by 40%, and existing lease maturity was expanded by 5 years. So as a landlord, we receive additional rent for EUR 1.2 million per annum. Value creation that can be measured at the different in asset valuation pre and post completion, minus CapEx, was plus 10%. And the same approach applies to the recent completion of the extension of Saint-Pierre Polyclinic in Perpignan, as shown on the right-hand side. On Slide 34, we also have extensions projects abroad. And this is the case for the recently acquired private hospital in Rapallo in Liguria, operated by Italian group, Gruppo Villa Maria. So the tenant has a project double the surface of its hospital. It will add 4 high-specialty operating theaters dedicated to cardiac surgery, neurosurgery and robotic surgery, a new intensive care unit and an ambulatory clinic. So works are ongoing and expected to be delivered by end of 2024. This extension will allow Gruppo Villa Maria to set up a reference surgical pole in the Genoa area to improve its performance and to significantly increase its capacity. For Icade Santé, as a landlord, it will add value to our portfolio through additional rent and further enclose this asset in this area. We'll also reinforce our relationship with one of the top 3 Italian acute care operators. Finally, an example on Slide 35, illustrating how we can work closer and position ourselves at a very early stage with our operators here with Korian. So as a reminder, we signed with Korian framework, nonexclusive partnership that was in 2017, to position ourselves on building long-term stay and post acute care facilities in France. And these facilities have to meet the highest standards. They are better adapted, more attractive, innovative and greener. So Icade Promotion is working alongside with us. It purchases the land and builds the asset as part of a property development contract. And Icade Santé invest as Korian leases the assets. Here, you can see a post-acute care facility located in Salon-de-Provence, near Marseille, Southern France. The completion is planned for next year, and it is clearly a state-of-the-art building with best-in-class certification such as HQ Excellent and ready to service a smart building certification. To wrap up this section on Healthcare Property Investment, we stay confident in our strong business model as it offers high visibility on future cash flows and also an attractive cap rate and risk premium over other asset classes, which is sought after by investors. We are able to keep some headroom until financial market stabilizes. And while doing that, we also keep our current partnership with our long-term existing tenants, and we upgrade our existing portfolio. We are clearly aiming at funding the most qualitative projects, i.e., the ones preserving or adding value to our portfolio. Of course, we'll keep a focus on optimizing our financial policy for the coming months in order to get ready to invest and seize -- to seize new opportunities in the market. We would like to basically capitalize on our sector leadership as we truly believe that the fundamentals for healthcare real estate remain solid. I'll now leave the floor to Emmanuel on the Property Development division.

Thank you, Xavier, and good morning, everyone. I am very happy to present under the 2 own Icade's Property Development business performance and to confirm our missions in a rapidly changing market. I am on Slide 38. As you probably already know, conditions in the new build market in France have changed quite a lot since the beginning of 2022. These changes are related to geopolitical, economic and ecological events that have impacted our domestic market. This means that the current market faces many challenges. First of all, we have to adapt to this new economic condition, including notably high inflation at over 6% in October, which has obviously impacted the purchasing power of French people. This inflation caused interest rates to rise significantly, resulting in buyers facing tighter credit conditions. I'll come back to these important changes in more detail later. Moreover, we observed a significant rise in our construction costs. The cost of materials increased sharply in 2021 due to the COVID crisis and to supply chain disruptions. Also, these supply chains have begun to recover in early 2022. They are now facing higher energy costs due in part to the Ukraine war. But otherwise, we continue to benefit from solid market fundamentals, a demand that is still strong and should remain so over the coming quarters. The population continues to grow, leading mechanically to high structural demand for housing in France. In addition, the unemployment rate remains very low and stable at around 7.4%, which is almost 3 points below 2015. This has typically a positive impact on home purchases. Lastly, we faced increasing expectations coming from our customers and from the local authorities in terms of environmental requirements. It represents a good opportunity for us to grow our business and offer these needs. Land use plans and public tenders have increased the requirements, addressing the fight against climate change. These include reducing carbon emissions from our business activities as well as minimizing land take and the impact on biodiversity in our projects. Climate change adaptations is also a major issue, which is especially critical during the summer months. These more ambitious public policies are echoed by many of our institutional and individual customers. For example, they are looking for more proximity to nature and more energy-efficient buildings. And this sometimes -- because a decisive sales argument in favor of new construction, as we are currently seeing a very strong and rapid rise in energy costs. Let's move to Slide 39. As I have just said -- I have just explained, the economic environment makes us question what the residential property market will look like in the future. As it stands today, it is still considered to be an undersupplied market. First, I would like to point out that the new housing stock in France has gradually declined since 2017 due to fewer building permits issued by local authorities. It is true to say, we observed an increase in the number of building permits being issued over the past months. This was due to a rush to file building permits by the end of December 2021 due to a change in regulations at the beginning of this year. Let's see if this trend will last. Also, sales prices have already -- have regularly risen in France since 2015, and they are expected to plateau over the coming months, particularly due to the impact of higher interest rates on the borrowing capacity of our customers. Despite this, we are confident that demand will remain strong. During inflationary periods, residential real estate represents a safe investment. In France, there is a maximum legal interest rates for loans which ensures continued demand. As a result, we believe that demand will continue to outstrip supply, with sales price to remain stable on average. Let's now turn to housing orders on Page 4. Despite a sharp decline in this market, Icade Promotion has continued to receive a steady number of order. For example, our housing sale to individual buyers have gradually increased over the past 3 years. Our sales are up 6% year-on-year while the market has dropped by 14.3%. Same trend for our total housing orders, they were down by only 4.1% compared to the third quarter 2021, despite a 21.4% drop in the market. We anticipate strong bulk sales in quarter 4. As a result, our overall sales are expected to remain stable in terms of units sold and to increase in value terms compared to last year. Our economic revenue at the end of September amounted more than EUR 800 million, up 3.1% year-on-year, despite a stagnating or even declining market. We expect a strong fourth quarter and estimate that our year-end revenue will up 10% compared to last year. Regarding our leading indicators on Slide 41. They are trending up, making us confident in our ability to implement our growth road map and conquest of market share over the coming years. Our backlog is up 15%. Our residential loan portfolio is also up 15.1%, with our potential mid-term revenue up to 20.4%. Lastly, the properties to be soon put on the market on our growing housing stock ensures future market share gains in an undersupplied market for several years to come. Let's now move on Slide 42. That said, we are in a new era coached between rising construction costs and prices stagnation, and we are really focused on maintaining our margins. To do this, we work hand in hand with our suppliers to look in project costs over the long term. Our operational teams are every day working on negotiating or either renegotiating, including with landowners, for every single project. Regarding sales, we proactively update our price list on a weekly basis in line with what is going on in local markets. Moreover, we made provisions for cost increases in our financial statements that make us confident in our ability to protect and maintain our margins. Despite these challenging times, our objective to increase our operating margin to 6% by the end of 2022 will be reached. It is 100 basis points more that in 2021. Our goal is to progressively reach 7% by 2025, and volume will help us. Let me further elaborate on Slide 43 on our road map on main drivers. Icade Promotion growth road map released in 2019, pushed back 1 year due to COVID, is now on track. Our leading indicators that I previously mentioned allow us to maintain our 2025 objectives, EUR 1.4 billion in revenue by 2025, and I was just saying, a 7% operational margin. Our strategy is based on 6 main pillars, and they have already produced results, and it will continue. The first pillar concerns the increase of the number of our housing orders by gaining market share due to our strong local footprint. We strive to meet the needs on the entire French market by offering a wide range of housing solutions. We rely on long-term presence under growth to have in-depth knowledge of our local markets, local authorities customers and suppliers. Our second pillar involves our expertise in developing, designing and building large-scale urban projects. The Quartier de Gally project close to the Castle of Versailles illustrates this point. This mixed-use project on 20 hectares consisting of 600 housing units is closely in our money with nature. This leads us to our third pillar, namely adapting our solutions and creating new ones to meet the growing environmental expectations of our individual customers and investors. Our recent Naturellement chez soi housing solution, which has been rolled out throughout France for the past year, has a dual focus, building homes for every need and building with nature in mind. It is perfectly in line with our Un arbre, un habitant commitment, which promotes well-being in our residential buildings. Lastly, our Urbain des Bois subsidiary funded last year, specializing in low-carbon projects, has already won several contracts along the Les Dryades project in La Riche close to the town of Tours. Fourth pillar, we have decided to put in place team dedicated to city transformation for both neighborhoods and buildings. Our synergy urban team has once again proven its expertise in major projects this year by being chosen to develop L'avenir de la rade de Toulon, a new urban development project awarded to Icade Promotion in partnership. Afterward, our new refurbishment solution for obsolete assets consists in converting these assets, which are often former office buildings into housing facilities -- into housing units, university facilities or new generation office space, depending on location and market conditions. Our fifth entails putting our expertise in large office assets to work often in synergy with Icade's Office Property Investment division. In March 2022, we sold our Envergure complex with over 47,000 square meters of office space with a high occupancy rate in Romainville, a city in Seine-Saint-Denis department. Sixth pillar, our growth is mainly driven organically and also through targeted acquisition in favorable markets. An example of this is the acquisition of majority stake in EMEA, a long-time Montpellier-based property developer representing a revenue of EUR 132 million. To further explain our road map, I would like to present 3 business cases that's representative of Icade Promotion business. Slide 44, with our Steen project, a large-scale partnership between Icade Promotion and 2 partners. Through this partnership, we acquired a loan portfolio of 74 more industrial sites for metropolitan France from ENGIE. Most of these sites will convert it into homes, offices, business premises and retail units while the current [indiscernible] has been renovated. This last project scheduled for completion in 2027 will result in the development of at least 100,000 square meters of housing. The project is expected to generate EUR 500 million in sales on an accretive margin for Icade Promotion. Through this large-scale transaction alongside our 2 equal partners, we are looking to remediate these sites in order to develop new neighborhoods while [ working ] biodiversity. This transaction will play a key role in helping the local areas where the projects are located to achieve the Zero Net Artificialization objective. Slide 45, I would also like to mention a contract that we were awarded very recently for a very beautiful mixed-use neighborhood project in the South of France in Roquebrune-Cap-Martin, a few kilometers from Monaco. This showcase project will be completed from the end of 2025. It will be developed with a partner and cover the floor area of over 35,000 square meters. It will include more than 400 housing units and 2,000 square meters office and retail space. The total revenue is estimated at close to EUR 200 million. This new district will feature cool islands on 5,000 square meters landscaped park. It should be noted that renewable energy, geothermal plants, photovoltaic panels will supply 81% of this eco district's need. I would also like to present you one last project in Neuilly-sur-Seine. This project perfectly illustrates the launch of our new AfterWork refurbishment solution. It involves the conversion of a former hotel into 660 housing units. Work will start next year and is scheduled to be completed in 2026. This major project has over 16,000 square meters of floor area with revenue estimated at over EUR 200 million on the margin above 10%. The building permit was obtained in September. After putting an initial number of units on the market a few days ago, we have already secured 15 orders. It is important to highlight that this type of asset refurbishment positively contributes to the energy conversion of France real estate and drastically reduces carbon emissions compared to building demolitions followed by the reconstructions. In Slide 47 in conclusion, I would to say that Icade Promotion has everything it needs to continue to grow in this challenging and rapidly market. It will gradually gain additional market share and improve its operating margin even under current market conditions. This margin is expected to stand at 6% at the end of 2022, plus 1 point compared to last year. Our ability to implement our road map is demonstrated by our leading indicators, which have already proven the relevance of our business model on property solutions. Taking into account these indicators, our revenue for the next 5 years is expected to total around EUR 8.4 billion. These indicators also allow us to confirm that as of today and even in the market conditions that we know, our 2025 objectives remain unchanged, namely EUR 1.4 billion in revenue per year on the 7% operating margin. Thank you for your attention. And now I hand over to Flora.

Thank you, Emmanuel. Good morning, everyone. Thank you all for being here and remotely. I'm Flora Jachimowicz, CSO and Innovation Executive Director. As you know, Icade has been focused on the carbon issue for a long time now, and we have sped up since 2020, aiming to reach a net zero carbon emission by 2050. We further ramped up our low-carbon strategy in 2022 in order to remain at the forefront. And fighting climate change is more than ever the century's biggest challenge. So just before I start, we are on Slide 49. I would like to briefly remind you some figures on our carbon footprint. A detailed diagram with all the numbers is available in the Appendix. Icade's total carbon footprint was, in 2019, around 580,000 tonnes of CO2 on our 3 scopes with more than 98% of these emissions in Scope 3. They are broken down into 84% for Property Development, including life cycles, 100 -- sorry, 11% for healthcare investment and 5% for office investment. Corporate emission account for approximately 0.4%. So today, our commitments for 2030 concerning greenhouse gas remission reflect our ambition on the subject. Corporates have to be leaders on the matter. So the carbon reduction target for 2019 to 2030 for Icade business line in intensity, meaning in kilo of CO2 per square meter, is a decrease of 60% for office investment, a decrease of 37% for healthcare investment for the French perimeter only. And we've got a new objective for the international perimeter, which is a decrease of 50%. And for the development activity, it is a decrease of 41%. As you can see, we also have an objective for corporate perimeter, even if it's not significant, it's 0.4% of tonnes of CO2, which is, in fact, a real way to involve all our employees. In terms of reducing tons of carbon in absolute value, and here, we do not count the Healthcare Property Investment international perimeter, work is still in progress, we set a target to reduce our absolute Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas by 55% and our Scope 3 emissions by 27.5% between 2019 and 2030. Concurrently, we go from 580,000 tonnes to around 410,000 tonnes. We also aim to reduce our absolute Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions by 90% on between 2019 and 2050. To achieve these objectives, and after having already invest more than EUR 50 million per year in sustainable works between 2015 and 2021, we have estimated so far an amount of approximately EUR 180 million of CapEx for the works of the 2 Property Investment division, with a specific EUR 20 million scheduled for the international perimeter, as you can see in the Appendix. So Slide 50. At the beginning of 2022, we announced that our 3 businesses were aligned on a 1.5 degrees trajectory with the targets we just saw on the previous slides. The strategy was presented in the Say on Climate and Biodiversity in April 2022. The approval by shareholders reached over 99%, and we are committed to getting back to shareholders every year. We also told you that the SBTi, which is a Science Based Target initiative, was in the process of validating, well, it's done, in line with our low carbon pathway. So SBTi has validated our decarbonization objective for 2030 and 2050 for our 3 divisions against the net zero standard. This vote and the certification means recognition of our commitment and of the rigor of our methods. Last but not least, Icade continues this proactive approach. Indeed, we have recently signed for the Ecowatt and Ecogaz packs in the context of the current crisis and the necessary severity efforts. As we've seen, we have set ambition objectives. So what are the first results? We are on Slide 51. Concretely, our results since 2019 have materialized a decrease of around 6% of our carbon emission between 2019 and 2021. The year 2020 is not representative due to the COVID, as you can see. In terms of reducing tons of carbon in absolute value, this reduction in our emission put us on a very good track to achieve our targets for 2030 and in line with our 1.5 degrees trajectory. If we observe business by business, the levers for reducing carbon are quite different. For the Office Property Investment in the right part of the slide, an important lever remains renovation and sustainable work on existing assets with around EUR 100 million of CapEx dedicated to sustainable work between 2022 and 2026. The extremely qualitative design of our new project, such as EDEN in Nanterre, which collects the best environmental labels, is also a real advantage. We also purchased collective energy and renewable energy to reduce costs and carbon footprint, and we do involve our tenants with Icade's leases with climate criteria. In a real partnership approach, we set out and monitor initiatives to fight climate change as well as joint efforts, promoting the circular economy, biodiversity, local development and decarbonated mobility. We have set -- sorry, we have already signed with 5 tenants, including TechniQ Energy and more to come. And you will find some detail in the Appendix. Regarding the Healthcare Property Investment, we will invest EUR 60 million in sustainable work in France between 2022 and 2026 and EUR 20 million in the international perimeter, as we mentioned before. You will find in the Appendix the main lever for Healthcare Property. They essentially consists of work on existing buildings to improve their environmental performance. The costs are split between operators and Icade, as operators also have to reduce their energy invoices and are really interested by retrofit building enveloped improvement. For new buildings, we do obtain environmental certification with a minimum rating for 100% of new build projects over 4,000 square meters. As I said, Property Developments represent 84% of our carbon emissions on Scope 1, 2 and 3 over a 50-year horizon. Our ambition to reduce carbon emission in intensity by square meter by 41% in 2030 is based on very concrete levers, starting with the use of low carbon and bio-sourced materials. For example, regarding the timber construction, we went from 322,000 square meter in 2019 to 550,000 square meter in 2022. You will find in the Appendix the exemplary use case of Ferney-Voltaire developed by our timber construction subsidiary, Urbain des Bois. We also particularly rely on the start-up studio Urban Odyssey, which comes to response by the co-creation of start-ups in which we take stakes to our immediate challenges. And you can see all the 14 start-ups in the appendix. So we have just seen what our commitments are regarding the reduction of our carbon emissions, our lever for action business by business, but above all, our results. But it's not just carbon in life. So we are on Slide 52. Icade's approach to CSR is obviously broader, and we have set ourselves new priority objectives. So first, as you have understood, is the climate with the achievement of this 1.5 trajectory and the adaptation of our buildings to climate change. The second objective is biodiversity and soil protection. The third is inclusion and local anchoring. And finally, fourth, the well-being and health of our occupants. On each of those subjects, our businesses reinforced their commitments for a more resilient business model. A few examples: 100% of our more exposed assets to climate risk will be adopted by 2030; 100% of Healthcare Property Investment acquisition project will be assessed on the basis of our NF quality life in nursing homes charter; 2/3 of our new builds will follow the 2025 environmental regulation from January 2023; and last but not least, we will renature around 100% of new Property Development builds by 2030. All these efforts pay off, as you can see on Slide 53. Icade Group is also well ranked by ESG agencies, reflecting all the action rollout, notably with an MSCI AA score and Icade classified as a sector leader by GRESB. We have also recently been ranked fourth of the Most Responsible Companies in France by Le Point and Statista. We now propose you to watch a short video illustrating some of the levers mentioned above, and to listen the interviews reflecting the vision of our tenants. [Presentation]

To conclude on Slide 54, our carbon intensity per square meter has significantly reduced across our 3 businesses, in line with our SBTi commitments, 6% in 2 years, and we really aim to continue. We have a real low carbon investment plan, which will permit Icade to remain best-in-class in our sector with a new commitment on the Healthcare Investment for the international perimeter and a dedicated CapEx plan of EUR 180 million. Our CSR strategy mix faces, in our view, is the biggest challenge, such as climate change and biodiversity but also inclusion and well-being of our occupants. We expect to continue to improve our ratings. Finally, we do think, and my colleague have given concrete examples in their presentation that CSR is a real business opportunity. Thanks a lot, and I dropped the mic to Victoire.

Thank you, Flore, and good morning, everyone. After this presentation, focus on the operational activity, I wanted to give you an update on the group financial structure and outlook. The robustness of the balance sheet is more than key in the current environment. So I'm on Page 56. The current financial environment is indeed marked, since the beginning of the year, by very rapid changes of exceptional magnitude. So need to expand too much on this slide, but a few elements. The 10 years of run rates has returned to the 2012 level. it stood last Friday at 2.36%, whereas it was at 0.2% end of last year and even negative in August '21. On the right-hand graph, we can observe also the increase in credit spread, particularly marked for real estate, reflecting, in our view, a crisis peak for real estate, such as we had in March 2020. Notice that the iBox reference a good benchmark for us doesn't exist before 2015, but it's interesting to highlight that the level of financing for Icade today is quite similar with the 2012 conditions. All in all, it's also fair to say that we are back perhaps to a more normal cost of debt. Let's quickly go to the Slide 57, which shows a picture of Icade's balance sheet at the end of June 2022. So you have the breakdown of assets by activity on the left, and on the right, the breakdown of liabilities between equity and gross debt. Our balance sheet for a total amount of more than EUR 18 billion reflects, in our view, our diversified business model and is supported by a good balance of resources made available for businesses. Nothing new, but helpful to understand why we are so confident so far. All in all, net debt, the key figure that allow us to understand the level of indebtedness for Icade, stood end of June at EUR 5.4 billion group share, and we closely monitor it through the following well-known key debt indicators, all equally important, LCR; bank LTVs, subject to covenants; net debt to net debt plus revalued equity ratio, particularly followed by rating agency, Standard & Poor's; and also the debt net to EBITDA ratio. Let's jump on Slide 58. I have the opportunity to mention and elaborate on it at each financial presentation. Icade benefits from a sound debt profile. The funding structure is well diversified, and it has been live since for a long time. Bonds represents 60%. And even when the bond market was very liquid and attractive, we managed to offer some place to our bond partners. And you know what, in a current context, it's a real plus. I will go back to that point later. The debt is also well covered. All in all, 94% end of June. All the aging operations were mainly realized in 2021 at low cost and loan maturity. And notice also that the non-age part of mainly come from Icade Santé and short-term debt new CP programs. The average maturity of the debt is managed cautiously. It remains a [indiscernible] end of June, and the average cost of debt always end of June, stood at an attractive level, clearly a low point. But it means also and especially a strong inertia of liabilities towards rising interest rates. Let's go now more in deep dive to our debt ratio on Page 59. It's fair to say that since 2020, our bank LTV and the debt net to debt net equity ratio slightly increased by 1 to 2 points to 43%, 44%. We certainly are among the REITs, those who manage more carefully the valuation post COVID. But sincerely, who is speaking about pressure on our balance sheet. Our LTV covenants, it's far away at 60%. S&P recently reaffirmed that our debt net to debt net plus equity ratio at around 44% is in line with our strong and comfortable BBB+ rating. Now regarding the debt net to EBITDA ratio, it stood for Icade at 10.7x. One of the lowest in France. I know it might appear for some investors a little too high, a level under 10x could be more appropriate in a current context. Let's see how we will manage it in the near future. And last, the ICR ratio, it stood at 6.6x compared to 6x in December 2021, a very comfortable level far away from covenants at 2 times. So why our current financial situation is expected to stay comfortable at the end of 2022, what will happen in the coming months, taking into account this new challenging but also, one more time, perhaps more and more financial environment. I'm on Page 60. As we say, the financial environment has evolved and as for the business lines, balance sheet management must adapt with the following priority, maintaining a solid balance sheet to cope with the new financial environment. Among the stakes identified, there are: first, preserve and reinforce liquidity. To address this stake, it is necessary to secure even more the debt maturity schedule working on refinancing needs by anticipation and reinforce credit line. Second, curbing the increase of cost of debt. For that, Icade will maintain its diversified debt structure and optimize the timing of debt renewals meaning by that, to open largely the type of debt support and geography also, if necessary. A quite challenging but also interesting period in front of us. And based on strong bond relationship built since several years, it is helpful in this particular topic. Third issue, monitoring more closely our cash position. Since July 2022, new CPR are back to positive interest and it increased rapidly with an almost flat yield curve at the end of November. And also dealing with change in asset value. That means reduce our gross net debt and also maintaining appropriate timing to action the disposal plan. And be more selective in our investment policy, which has to take into account the current financial constraints through the WACC update, which means, if necessary, slow down investments and focus on repriced assets, meaning by that special situation. Let me further elaborate on those 2 action plans. The first one, consisting in maintaining a comfortable debt schedule, I'm on Page 61. As already said, the debt maturity as of September does not reflect any pressure with next significant bond maturing in 2025. In addition, several short-term levels have clearly been identified and are being implemented to further secure it. First, possible extension of the bridge to bond over 2 years on the Healthcare side. Second, ongoing discussion on refinancing bank lines maturing in 2024, and also sharp/exceptional discount or bond issue offering buyback opportunities. Second action plan, I wanted to highlight increased selectivity in investment policy. I'm on Page 62. First step, be fully aware of what could -- what will happen in 2023. First of all, I think it's reasonable to assume that Icade's average cost of debt will increase in the coming quarters. and even in the coming years. Even if, as I explained before, we don't need to issue new midterm money in 2023, we will have the impact of the short-term interest rates, as I highlighted just before. New CP today, it's a cost of plus 1.9% in for 3 to 6 months maturity. In January, it was negative at 0.3%. Having said that, we should be far way below 2% in terms of average cost of debt in 2023. Second, it's also fair to expect value correction, certainly more focused on office side in the next 12, 18 months. Even if, as explained in July, our office portfolio is benefiting from room to absorb, with less pressure interest rate rising. With a risk premium right now above 300 bps, 5.6% for Icade's portfolio yield end of June, minus 2.4% 2 days level of the 10 years French bonds. But taken into account the coming 12, 18 months, an increase of risk premium from 300 to 350/450 bps. In such context, how to manage the situation, how to protect our cash flow and distribute regular dividend to our shareholders. I gave you the answer of the previous slide. First, adapting quickly the investment thesis of our businesses. We have already begun in 2022, dividing by 2 compared to 2021, and we will to continue to do so if necessary in 2023. And this until we will be able to offer, again, attractive IRR taken into account managing our cost of debt. Two, a direct consequences of this adjustment of the investment policy is a reduction of the net debt, a reduction expected to be between EUR 150 million to EUR 200 million on a cumulative basis over the 2 next years, '22 and '23, without any cash tender offer. Here again, levers that can be easily active with short-term effect. And of course, maintaining an attractive disposal plan as it was already said. To conclude this part, I'm on Slide 63. I would like to insist by saying that, taking into account the strong ability to adapt our model, our balance sheet indicators will be solid end of 2022 and this solidity will continue in 2023. And also beyond, even taken into account this new financing environment. And all in all, we'll stay more than far away from our covenants in the coming months, of course. It's not a question of increase of increased cost of debt, as I read in some sell-side sector analysis, things will also move on the business side. And we demonstrated, especially since 2020, our agility to adapt. At the meantime, the economic model, especially in the investment side. Last topic, on the right-hand side, we have provided you with the result of an estimation of the valuation decrease that will be necessary to break the covenant. Well, we have to combine a decline of value in Healthcare portfolio of 5% to 10%, and plus a decline of 50% in Office to break our covenants. Notice that, even in a worst period of crisis or market ad, we never absence such a level of decline. So let me conclude by saying that the management of our balance sheet is in the coming months is and will continue to be adapted to a BBB+ rating and also will permit us to deliver cash flow and dividend. It's our main focus. And now I leave the floor to Olivier for the conclusion of this presentation.

Thanks, Victoire. It's time now to conclude this presentation. I hope this presentation helps you to better understand where we stand and why we are so confident for the future despite a very complex and volatile environment. So first, I won't come back to that. But our balance sheet, it's the hot topic of the moment. The topic is strong, and it will stay due to active liability management and also a lower medium-term LTV target. Second, as Emmanuelle demonstrated, our Office Portfolio is really solid and continue to be attractive, both for tenants and new tenants or investor for the asset rotation. Good location, attractive level of rents, environmental specification, but also cap rates far above the risk-free rate, in our view, are key to be successful in the coming years. For the Healthcare division, the asset class is continuously proving attractive, and we'll continue at the risk return profile of this asset class, fits very well with most of institutional long-term investor concern of the moment. And the liquidity is still on our road map in order to show the real value of our portfolio, but also to deleverage Icade Group. For Icade Promotion, we confirm, as Emmanuel said, that we are on track to deliver our road map. We know that it's not an easy challenge, but we are confident in our capacity to manage this complex environment. And more than that, we have started to deliver. And finally, our low carbon strategy, which is at the heart of our DNA at Icade, will fully contribute to the attractiveness of our 3 business clients. Therefore, I can confirm that Icade will do more than deliver its initial 2022 targets, we'll come back to that, better than our initial goals. And as we remain agile, we will continue to adapt our strategy to the new environment. We will continue to be resilient, maybe more than that in 2023. So let's now talk about 2023 outlook, how do we see the coming year. For sure, it will be another challenging year. But for Office, the market appetite for mature asset is confirmed again, and especially with the gain of cap rate that we have in our portfolio. Therefore, we plan to continue -- to actively pursue asset quotation. And we target an average annual volume of disposal around EUR 500 million. And we have already started the 2023 disposal plan as Emmanuelle said. And the significant disposal and the adaptation of the investment policy presented earlier should lead us through to a position of net disinvestment in 2022 and also in 2023. This is fully assumed by Icade, even if it has also a negative impact on the cash flow of the Office portfolio. And we do that also because we do think that there will be some interesting and appealing opportunities available in the market due to financing and refinancing environment, we really do think that we will have some willing sellers for sure in 2023. And Icade wants to be in a position to size those opportunities. For the Healthcare division, the investment policy has been already adjusted to take into account the new financial and financing environment. Therefore, our growth target and investment plan will be adapted accordingly. And as I said, the liquidity is still on our road map. Regarding valuation and cash flow, we do expect a strong resilience of this asset class in 2023. For Icade Promotion results for 2022 and outlook for 2023 are perfectly in line with our 2025 road map. I can say that per year, we do see plus 10% in 2022 and plus 10% in 2023 for revenue and margin above 6%. And for sure, the financial discipline, as Victoire said, will be also a common key pillar for our 3 business lines. Any new investment, any new scheme will have to deliver the appropriate return, taking into account the new financing condition and cost of capital. And as said, we will continue the active management of the balance sheet, refinancing in advance and strengthening our liquidity. And thanks to indexation, thanks to increasing occupancy rate in the Office portfolio, thanks to Icade Promotion growing activity, but also thanks to our current hedging policy. The negative or reverse impact of significant disposal, of investment slowdown and rising costs, such as cost of financing or cost of energy, should be limited, not to say known regarding our overall cash flow in 2023. I hope you will consider that it's more than satisfying. Let's now move to Slide 67 for our guidance for 2022. So we are at the end of November, and for sure we have now more than a very clear view on what we will deliver this year. So all the previous elements taken into account, Icade is in a position to revise upwards our guidance for 2022. So the group net current cash flow per share is now expected to grow by around plus 7% in 2022, excluding the impact of 2022 disposal, which means a growth by plus 3% per share, including the impact of 2022 disposal. The disposal represented this year, EUR 14 million of rents, the impact for 2022. So for the Healthcare division, the net current cash flow per share -- net per share. But the net current cash flow of the Healthcare division will be up by plus 5.7% to 6% in absolute term, because there is no share for Icade Santé. And due to the evolution of our cash flow, the 2022 dividend subject for sure to general meeting approval and a final Board proposal in February 2023, is confirmed by plus 3% to 4%. And as announced since the beginning of the year. I also confirm that our medium-term plan will be presented in February 2023 after the presentation of the -- of our 2022 annual result. Thank you for your attention, and we are now ready with all the ExCo member to answer all your questions. We'll start by questions in the room, then live question by phone. But you could start to send also a written question, we will answer at the end of the Q&A session.

So maybe somebody has a question in the room, Florent to start and the others after.

Yes. So thank you very much for this very interesting presentation. So I would have maybe several questions. So first on Offices and Healthcare, so you have say that you will reduce your investment. So -- but could you please give us maybe more color on your investment criteria for the next investment and in comparison maybe with your last investment criteria. Maybe a second question on the disposal of EUR 100 million to be completed in 2023, so would it be possible to have a little more color on what type of assets? And if the -- is the disposal is in line with the last appraisal values? And maybe a last question on your outlook for 2023, so you said that you will have a limited impact of the new environment and the slowdown in investment, but should we understand from your message that we can still expect a growth of the net recurring cash flow per share in 2023? Or maybe something that will be maybe a much more constant?

So to start off, to answer your first question, maybe I don't know if you could put the slide that was presented by Emmanuelle on the asset rotation within the portfolio and maybe I can do that. But if you can -- what it means to your new investment criteria. For the Office portfolio, we really do think that we will have interesting and appealing opportunities because you will have willing seller. It's not due to the fact that the scheme or the billing is distressed or something like that, but it means that you have some investors that have issue, especially if you look at the private real estate equity fund, they were probably issued to refinance their asset. And we start to see quite appealing opportunities. The building we mentioned in [indiscernible] if you compare the price per square meter to the other that we have both, it's the same street [indiscernible] and the other one. The price per square meter is [ 1 to 2 ]. If you look at the price per square meter of [indiscernible], it's the double compared price we pay per square meters on La Défens. A special reason behind the price of the asset that we have acquired. So we have also under study some opportunities. And it's mainly coming from, again, actors that have some difficulty to refinance their assets. So we have -- as Victoire said, we have significantly increased our weighted average cost of capital in our investors pillar, especially for the Office division, and we have to find opportunities above. I think it's also in terms of investment criteria, interesting to come back to the slide on our pipeline. I don't know where it is, which one? This one. We have a double flexibility within our pipeline. As you do know, the land bank that we have is still on a historical appraisal basis in the pipeline. So it means that it gives us, in our view, the capacity to do Office building. But if the demand is weaker, we could do also data center, labs or life science building, or we could do residential development with Icade Promotion. So it means that -- and as it was presented by Emmanuel, we will be probably much more diversified in our pipeline in order to adapt it to the current situation. The pipeline, the current pipeline is what it is, but still with the development margin in our view, with integrating the cost of financing and kind of a cap rate that we have at the end of the year, still an interesting development margin around 20%, probably a little bit lower compared to 2 years or 3 years ago. The new project that we will have to launch will have to be adapted to the current financing environment. For the investment criteria for Healthcare, it is for -- it's a little bit more challenging because we don't think that you have a willing seller for Healthcare assets because you have limited numbers of private equity fund. And it's also a good news, what we do see is that valuations are quite stable, even if the cost of financing for us has increased. So that's why I said that probably for the next, I don't know if it's 12 months or 18 months, but probably we will have to reduce and try to look for opportunities. It's always around structuring structured transaction that maybe Icade Santé will be able to find interesting opportunities when you have to split [ OpCo and propco ] when you have legal or tax issues, or to do more greenfield development. That's where we do see opportunities to adapt our investment criteria to the new financial environment. This is -- your second question, valuation at the end of this year. What we do see, because we have the first report from external appraiser, it's more or less stable, stable plus for Healthcare. And what we do see for Office is, I give you a range, but it's between minus 6% to minus 8%. That's what we do see in the report. And I really do think it's a fair view of what is in the market, even if, as you probably know, a lot of investment transactions have been postponed. So therefore, appraisal, they have less comparable to make their work, but that's what they did say to us on the valuation of our portfolio. Having said that, and as Emmanuel said, we have started the -- because valuation -- external valuation is interesting. But at the end of the day, what is more interesting is a real transaction. We have started to launch our disposal plan for 2023. And on the kind of asset that we put on the market, which means core asset, we -- our job is to create core assay and to send some of them to recycle the capital. And on the part of the disposal plan that we have started to implement. We have a better answer and feedback from the market, which means better letter interest, better offer, than maybe the average valuation that was given to you. So let's see. For sure, it's a changing market. But again, at the end of the year and as of today, what we have in mind, it's minus 6% to 8% for Offices and stable plus for Healthcare. So back to my comment on the cash flow for next year. I say limited to none. It means that we have some adverse element for sure, but we have also some good news. We give this range limited to no impact. It means that we don't know exactly what will be the level of indexation. We don't know exactly what will be the level of the short-term interest rate for the short-term part of the debt. We don't know exactly at what time of the year we will dispose our asset. So it means that taking into account reasonable assumption, we see our cash flow for 2023 close to the same that 2022, it will depend on some fine-tuning of execution in 2023. Question for Pierre-Emmanuel and after 2 other questions.

Pierre Clouard from Kepler. I have 2 questions on my side. So the first one, just coming back on your potential covenant bridge. I understand that there is still room of maneuver. But looking at the requirement of S&P, you -- if I'm not mistaken, you have to keep a debt-to-debt and equity ratio below 50%, which leaves the room of maneuver less comfortable to the covenant bridge. So just a wanted to have your view on that. And if, let's say, the total portfolio valuation is declining more than 10% over the next 18 months, let's say, do you -- will you put some collective measures like not investing anymore into Healthcare, maybe not adjust your dividend payment to the cash flow? Just to understand, okay, in the worst case or, let's say, more adverse case scenario, what would be your strategy? And the second one is on the Icade Santé and the liquidity event. You have said that you are still committed to this liquidity event. It would be nice to have more colors on your timing or maybe what is your favorable option today for Icade Santé?

Victoire, do you want to answer the first question and Xavier or I will answer the second. Xavier, you will answer the second.

Okay. So based on the current discussion, of course, we have so far with Standard & Poor's, and it's fair to say that on the financial point of view, we have to be under 50%, as you said, for this ratio, dedicated ratio, which is debt on debt net plus equity. But it's also a question also of business profile. And I'm sure you have in mind that Icade is a very strong BBB+, which means large maneuver. After saying that, also we have internal stress scenario with additional decrease in valuation on the Office side in 2022 on the -- on my -- based on the stress scenario I have so far, I predict my triple BBB+ rating. Because, as I said before, it's not a passive attitude, we will also adapt our investment strategies and also maneuver on the debt net side. Xavier?

On the liquidity of Icade Santé. So clearly, a straight IPO is not actionable in current markets. However, we have maintained several discussions over the past months. So keeping interest in the story from selected investors. And we may consider other possibility as we have, I mean, ongoing discussions with our other stakeholders. So the minority shareholders at Icade Santé's level and that's something we may move forward at some point. But once again, the straight IPO is probably not reachable currently.

There is one question here and one behind. Sorry.

[indiscernible] from Kempen. Two questions from my side, probably first for Xavier. Looking at these margins and rent cover ratios, is there a clear difference between the acute care portfolio and the long-term care portfolio and how they are impacted at the moment? And then secondly, I was wondering if there's an update on the Champs-Élysées development project that was highlighted in the half year results?

First one for Xavier. Second one, Emmanuelle.

So regarding the cover ratios, the EBITDA to rent is pretty similar within our portfolio for acute care tenants and nursing home tenants. The underlying cost structure is a bit different for these 2 kinds of tenants. But basically, you have like 50% of the cost structure consisting in human resources costs on which you can see the kind of inflation that exists. It's not like energy cost, but it's still dynamic. But all in all, and that's true as well if we resume or not a few tenants, the 2x coverage ratio for EBITDA to rent is something that is consistent across our portfolio.

About our Champs-Élysées project, so we already managed to find agreement with former tenants to the leavers, they will leave. The last one will leaving the next month, the building. And so we are ready to ask for building permission with the agreement of the city of Paris to be sure to have the authorization to refurbish this building and put it on the market in 2025. Because we are waiting for the Olympic games before beginning the work. And after just after the Olympic games, we will begin the work for an expected delivery of the new -- these new buildings, mix retail, high street retail and offices at the end of 2025.

There's a question here, yes?

It's Ben Richford from SocGen. Just a little bit more on Healthcare, please. Just in light of ORPEA's restructuring, asset write-downs, et cetera, what's the read across from what's happening at ORPEA? What's the potential opportunity for you? The first question on ORPEA generally. And then just a little more on the Healthcare discussions around rent. You mentioned leases coming due in the next couple of years and reducing margins. How are those discussions are evolving, please?

So regarding the ORPEA situation, so ORPEA situation is a bit specific given the good balance sheet restructuring. I think we are in a wait-and-see mode since there have been some announcements on ORPEA side. But it still needs to be put into action, so we are considering the future with open eyes, I would say. For the rest, we are already a landlord for ORPEA, especially in Germany. And with a very limited exposure, it's all in all 2.6% of our total leases with our total rent with ORPEA.

And for the time being, they are paying their rents on due date.

They are paying their rent on due date. Exactly.

A question on margin.

Second question on the Healthcare rents and the way we are discussing them. So the only specific, I would say, attempts to discuss the rents, there are no general discussions around rents and the level of rents. The question is more than -- it is a very, very regulated sector. It is a sector of cost structures that are very stable over time. So the point is that for -- with inflation, our tenants need to consider every option and the -- we are aware that they may come to us at some point. The idea is that we are in our position with these agreements that are -- enable us to take the inflation in order to cope with our own costs rising interest rate and potential CapEx increases due to inflation. So this will be, I would say, a negotiation against which we may have a lease extension or other add-ons. But this is something that we expect, not something that is occurring.

I think it's important maybe to remind that rent for risk-listed assets, it's not a question of supply and demand, it's based on the cost of property, which is the cost of the land, the cost of works, CapEx that you have to invest. You could assume that there will be a lot of new requirements and needs for new Healthcare assets. And the cost of construction works are what they are, the cost of the land is what it is, and you have to multiply did by the cap rate. And I think it will be difficult to imagine that due to what is the cost of financing of any investor in this asset class. Even if the operating companies want to finance himself, the new properties that they will have a decreasing rents or cost of financing or cost of work of the new property. Therefore, we do see the near future for a level of rents with a good level of confidence. And as Xavier said, no discussion -- overall discussion on that topic. There's a question behind and then a question in the middle, yes.

[indiscernible]. First of all, a very simple one, hedging 90% plus, to which time, 2 years, 3 years, 4 years? Then I had a question on valuation as a follow-up of a previous gentlemen. Do you feel that the price is only considering yield changes or are already integrating strong indexation or not yet or not enough? What is your view on that? And then there was one gentleman mentioned the award, so I'll come back on that. On ORPEA, is there some appetite to take over assets if come in the market or when they come to the market? Or you would avoid to increase your exposure to ORPEA or possibly with another operator? And last but not least, I had a question on the Office side. This fall office values is really a stress scenario to be sure. This -- the one that was mentioned by Victoire at the end of the presentation, this fall of values is not something that you are seeing in the coming years. You're really talking about [indiscernible] scenario to be fair.

So I will answer the last one before I hand over to the other for Victoire. No, the answer that I was giving for the valuation at year-end, it's what it is. I don't know if it's the most stressed scenario for 2023. Where do we see that? Clearly, you will have some kind of a [ 2-tier ] market in 2023. You will have pressure maybe on some vendors that will have refinancing issue. And you are players that are no specific timing for disposal. And it will be probably the same situation compared to this year. If they have no interesting mark of interest or offer, they will withdraw asset for the market. That's why I really do think that even for a given location, you could have a different view on valuation. Because I think that at the end of the day, the final valuation will be probably more linked to what is the situation of the vendor. If you have pressure to refinance -- that's why I was mentioning specifically, private real estate equity fund because sometimes they have a due date, they don't have no more equity, they have to liquidate the fund or whatever, maybe those players will be under pressure. If you talk to a life insurance company, if you talk even to a listed real estate company, I don't think they have specific pressure in terms of timing. So if they could have, let's say, a reasonably attractive offer, and we have started to do so. And you could see that for the investment institutional world is really risk adverse for the time being. That's why valuation for Healthcare are stable. And that's why even for office building for a core asset, which means cash flow for 6 -- 5, 6 years plus, good location, good tenant, liquidity in our view is still there. After that the capital scenario, for sure you have the risk rate at 5%, inflation at 10%, so we have internally stressed scenario. I think -- but what will be the probability of occurrence of that, we don't know. We do follow what is the Central European Bank is saying on interest rates. Interesting to -- I read last week an interview when I'm [ laggard ] 1 year ago, if I have to summarize, no risk of inflation, no risk to increase interest rate in 2022. So for sure, it's difficult to manage well. I think it's interesting exercise, you should read also. So we have our central scenario, which is the one I was given. We do expect also, again, in 2023, same kind of evolution in valuation for Offices. This is our central scenario. And for sure, we have a Board which is fully committed to that internally with the Audit Committee, we have stress test scenario and to see how we will maneuver in case of a very stressed scenario. But for the time being, and it also inflation level of interest rate, growth or not in the GDP in Europe, but we prepare to face any catastrophic scenario. Hopefully, it will not occur. Answer to other questions.

Yes. So regarding our hedging policy, usually for the current year, it's above 90%, as I said, and the year after it's above 85% and after that 80%. And it's clear to say -- it's fair to say that right now regarding the level of rates and the derivatives in the market, I don't know it's a good idea to accelerate hedging position right now. I was very comfortable 1 year ago, as I said, to do so. But right now, I think it's a good time to wait a little bit and to see what will be the level in [ 2022 ] through to accelerate the hedging policy. It's like issue -- it's a question of window in the market.

And then on the ORPEA case. So if we had to consider opportunities, risk opportunities with ORPEA, two things. One is very common. It will be to look at the location and the quality of the asset. And then a second topic is more specific, probably around the soundness of the rent that will be -- that will have to be put in place given the local business, but also given ORPEA's situation, and that's clearly the specificity of this case. And that is why I talk about wait-and-see mode, because the assessment of the corporate environment of ORPEA, if they need to restructure their balance sheet as a group, has an impact on the way we could consider a transaction.

There's one question in the middle of the room. Then another one. Then one behind. After that, one online question.

Bart Gysens from Morgan Stanley. I have 2 questions. Firstly, again, on Healthcare, sorry, and then on the earnings guidance. Healthcare, you've renewed or renewing some contracts. Can you just clarify for us what level of CapEx you need to spend when you renew? And without that CapEx, what the uplift or the negative reversion would be without spending any money? Is there an uplift or do rents go down? And if you spend money, what is that as a percentage of the capital value of the asset? And then my second question is you provide a very helpful guidance for this year, but there's a lot of moving parts there, right? You clarify what the impact is of disposal about 4 points, but can you disaggregate that a little bit more because there are many moving parts there. There's indexation, there's movement in occupancy, there is a development business. Can you disaggregate what actually that plus 3% actually means and what is driven by?

For sure, we can with the figures. We -- I don't know if we have the right to do that right now, but Victoire...

Yes. And then, sir, on the rents in Healthcare. Usually, our lease agreements have closed on the new rental value upon the renewal of the lease, with a tunnel around the last known rent. So there is, I would say, a floor and a cap to the negotiation that can occur. What we have witnessed in the past and the way we have managed that is that our negotiations are lending with the same level of rent then the last one, and a level of CapEx that is more or less equal to 10% of the total amount of new rent we get. So for a 10-year lease, we spend the equivalent for a year in CapEx on the Office on the rent.

Perhaps a few new items to just give you some floor regarding the plus 3% in 2022. First, clearly, indexation, we were not so positive at the beginning of the year and especially when we confirm the guidance in mid-2022. And in fact, it is a positive contribution of the result. The second main thing is also timing of disposal. It's always a buffer for us because it's a question of mind, months, we keep the building in [ our sense ] so it's additional cash flow. And the last one, but not the least, it's a development side, when Emmanuel confirm a dynamic here, it's for us also the last way to upgrade the guidance if we can do so.

All the 3 business lines, we have positive evolution in 2022. We have given the figures for Icade Santé for non-reason. But we will have also a positive evolution of the Office portfolio and appealing, as Victoire said, an appealing evolution of Icade promotion.

It's Rob Jones from BNP Paribas Exane. Three questions, if I may, one on Healthcare. So in terms of your typical Healthcare operator margin, I wonder if you've got any color on that? And do you expect the rate of rental growth to continue to lag or at least grow at a slower rate than inflation? Secondly, Victoire, I want to go back to Pierre-Emmanuel's important question earlier on, the LTV going forward and the ability to remain below that 50% level to ensure that you don't end up getting notched. If I was more bearish than you and assuming the capital values in the office portfolio for more and thus your LTV would go above 50%, would it be reasonable for me also to assume that a dividend cut could be a sensible approach in terms of cash flow preservation? I appreciate that's a bit of an unfair question, but I'm going to ask it anyway. And then finally, in terms of disposals, obviously, you've given the EUR 500 million guidance for next year. It's really helpful. To what extent is that figure driven by your view on the capacity for the market to absorb that quantity of disposals versus preservation of NCCF relative to prior year? Because ideally, it would be a scenario where you would focus on total term maximization for shareholders rather than necessarily NCCF preservation in an environment where, say, capital value affording you, you'd actually be better selling, say, more than EUR 500 million if there was capacity, so then obviously reinvest as you pointed out, at a lower price point and obviously deliver better value for shareholders?

Well, I will answer the last question before Victoire and Xavier will answer the 2 first questions. The disposal plan, EUR 500 million, EUR 600 million is more or less the average volume that we have done except in 2020 for the non-reason. And especially in 2019, we are also double the volume of this disposal. Now there are several reasons behind the volume of disposal. First, it's also always to show real market valuation and transaction, I think it's always the best way to show that, that was highlighted that all the transactions since the beginning of 2019, more than EUR 2.1 billion have been all closed. Okay, [ minus 1 ] to -- but above NAV valuation. Second reason, I really do think that this is our job for the Office portfolio -- for Healthcare, it's another business. But for the Office portfolio, I really do think it's our job to recycle the capital. Unfortunately, due to what additional price increase of capital is not possible. But even with that to show that you are able to start from a piece of land to create a core asset and then to [indiscernible]. We can't do more also because there is a limit to what we could do with the situation, which is the specific tax regime. So we have also to take care of that. We are not managed only by [indiscernible], like private equity or especially for tax reason. Also why sometimes the best way is to create the new building and to dispose it, because probably the peak of the value is 1 year or 1.5 years after completion. Now that's the second reason -- second element that we have to take into account. After that, we do balance and I think let's see what would be the final medium-term plan. But we try to be balanced between value creation and the preservation of cash flow. It's difficult to announce that to, net this investor, the cash flow will decrease that. But we will do, even 2022 net cash flow will continue to be positive. So we try to balance between -- to show the real value creation. And you know the preservation of the cash flow, for sure, when you dispose core asset, you sell with the building the cash flow, which is linked to the asset. It is fair to say that if you look at the 2 coming years, we have also the point to know of the LTV ratio. So the rotation within the portfolio is also linked to the financial policy. We want to for sure to keep the BBB+ rating. Internally, we are not talking for the breach of covenants and we are talking what we have to do to keep our BBB+ rating. And believe me, we have ongoing discussion with Standard & Poor's. That's more the kind of the discussion that we have internally. Last reason, which is also linked to what we said about valuation is that we really do think that there will be there will be interesting opportunities in the market. We're really seeing that there will be some willing seller in the market. So compared to the past period where we were investing significantly in our pipeline, less acquiring new investment, maybe in the near future. And even we have a more diversified pipeline. We want to be in a financial position to seize opportunities, if any. But what we start to see is that refinancing conditions are difficult for some players. And probably, they will have a necessity to dispose. That's the rationale behind the disposal plan. Xavier and Victoire for the 2 other questions.

Yes. So regarding our Healthcare tenants, typical margins, EBITDA to turnover, for the acute care sector will be between 16% and 20% for our normalized business. And for nursing homes player, between 25% and 35%, then can vary a bit depending on the countries, depending on specific situations and so on. But just to give you an idea. You had a question about the lag of the rental growth compared to inflation, if I'm correct, that's.....

[indiscernible] Do you expect rent spreads will still be lower [indiscernible].

So in our current lease agreements, usually, it's an index that is tied to inflation, which is not exactly inflation. In international, it's not necessarily 100% of inflation, and indexation keeps in only once a year. And for the German part, it may occur not once a year, but over a longer period of time. So that's the way you see a difference between inflation as it is reported by macro statistics and the indexation we have in our portfolio. But all the time, it comes in. but to some extent, not for 100% of the inflation because we have a fixed part of the indexation.

I will try to answer your question. Right now, the current financial market conditions is comparable to 2012, as I said before. And when you look at the level of the yield of our Office portfolio in 2012, it was around 6.5%, 6.8%. So for us, sincerely, internally, we don't have any stress scenario with decreasing value around 2025 and above. So we don't have case. We have to cut the dividend to be clear. But if we can imagine we have more pressure, just for you, before capital dividend, we have scrip dividend option also.

I think there was another question in the room. And after that, the online question, Thierry, please.

Marie from Green Street. Just 2 questions maybe from my side. Emmanuelle on the Office portfolio, you mentioned negative reversion on some of the re-leasing spread. So if you can give us a sense of the overall picture and what assets and where do you see actually your negotiations or your conversations going right now? If we might just give us a sense of the spot tension in the market. And maybe on the development business, you mentioned market share as part of the sale of the housing units. Can you give us a sense of the current market share for Icade and where you would take it potentially, because that may be part of your growth for your revenue? And then how much volatility do you think there is going into '23, where maybe the interest rates are not expanding a lot, but the number of loans to individuals are actually going down? So how much do you think this could impact your revenue maybe for the housing sales?

Emmanuelle, do you want to answer the first question on reversion within the portfolio. And Emmanuel, the second one on...

Yes. Like as I said, the negative reversion is very low. Of course, the new rent when you renew lease, the new rent is lower than the rent right in place, of course, because of the indexation, for example. And so we have 2 solutions to retain the tenant, to find an agreement, is to put a new rent lower, but always in line with the ERV, the estimated rental value. And we, of course rent to the tenant incentives works of free period -- of free period rent to have -- to find an agreement, and it's always the case in our portfolio.

If I may add to what Emmanuelle answer it, I think for sure, when we have to negotiate, we'd like to put more CapEx instead of giving our renting -- free rent period. And also it's interesting, coming back to a topic that was a hot topic of work from home and remote work. For the time being, with the largest tenant, I will mention AXA, but 2 or 3 other significant, discussion to renew leases that are going. We are trying do what are the specification of our building and location, level of rent and so on. We are discussing on the basis of 100% of the previous surfaces, which was something quite a good surprise for us because we all had in mind that maybe with large corporate the bulk of the tenant roll of Icade will reduce their space. And what we did see during the last 3, 4 months is that we are discussing and negotiating on the basis of 100% of the previous surfaces, which is, in our view, also a good news. Emmanuel, the answer a question on level of mortgages and interest rates?

Yes. before answer about the market share, about the market for the next year. We believe that this market will be -- stay in undersupplied phases because of the needs, only for the demographic trends it's required a production of 500,000 housing units. And we are regarding the last 10 years the production was only below 400,000 unit houses. So we are confident to gain market share because of our indicators -- of internal indicators. Our portfolio is plus [ 10,000 ] units housing and it allows us to gain this market share due to our local footprints in all the entire of France and possibly in the main street in the region. So about the rates on the loan for the customers, it could be impact to the revenue in 2024, but not next year because the works are ongoing and all the margin on the revenue is under track for the next year.

Maybe just before -- because the guy online is waiting, could we have the question on line Theirry? And after there is a question on the first row. I think it's a question from [ Chris Fremantle ].

Jonathan Kownator from Morgan -- Goldman Sachs.

Perhaps 2 questions a lot has been answered already. But just to come back on the dividend question. So you've had a guidance of 3% to 4% this year, and you wanted to continue growing the dividend initially, but you're guiding to perhaps earnings slightly decreasing or closer, I understand there's a few moving parts here. But how are you thinking about the dividend for 2023? Is it dependent also on your ability to achieve the EUR 500 million of disposals? Maybe a bit early for the guidance, but just trying to understand what you're thinking in terms of policy there going forward? And on the second question, you've guided to slightly negative reversion in Office. I think you've been improving your occupancy rate as what you're guiding for at the end of the year. Have you got any big upcoming departures a big negotiation for next year that you can already flag, that you're aware of? And the increase in occupancy, is that mostly on ranges in industrial? Or have you been able to let space in Office recently and you have upcoming positive news again that you're still expecting?

Emmanuel will answer your question on -- specifically on the dividend policy, I don't want to preempt any board decision or presentation of our medium-term plan in February 2023. What I just could remind is our dividend policy in the past is based on the evolution of the cash flow. Maybe you have in mind that with the COVID-19 crisis, we have significantly decreased the payout ratio before COVID-19 crisis, it was 92%, 93%. And post COVID-19 crisis, our dividend policy is based on I'd say there is no major number or fixed number, but it's between 80% to 82% of the cash flow. So -- and I think it's reasonable to do so until environment will be more stable. I do assume for the time being that our recommendation and the board's final decision will be to keep the same kind of dividend policy, which is based on the evolution of the -- of our net current cash flow. I think this is the main driver for our dividend policy. And for the time being, due to you what it is volatile or complex or complex environment, I do not anticipate as of today any major change in the dividend policy. I don't think it will be reasonable to come back to a level of previous COVID-19 crisis because of visibility, which is limited on some elements. So I do assume that our dividend policy for the coming medium-term plan will be based on the same kind of payout ratio, as it was 81, 82. It depends. After that, you know that we have mandatory obligation of distribution due to what is the [ seek ] regime. So when you dispose some assets with significant volume, such as the kind of volume that we have in mind, we generate also on the tax basis, a significant capital gain. Just to remind you that we have to distribute 70% of the tax capital gain over the next 2 years after a transaction. Therefore, I don't see any major shift in the dividend policy for the coming years. But this is, as you know, a Board decision before a vote in general assembly. But for 2022, maybe 2023, I think we will keep for 2022, which by dividend 2022, we will keep the same kind of payout ratio. Second, you have there is a question on their first -- second question, sorry about -- sorry, I forgot that.

[ Fidenta ] occupancy rate. So at first, as I said, we don't have any significant departure schedules in 2022, even in 2023 because we've already managed to renew more than 35,000 square meters with for former tenants, and we already have ongoing discussions with tenants to renew more than 6,000 square meters. So we are very confident about the expected break. And for we anticipate the future break to be sure to keep the tenant. On other end, we have 4 deliveries expected in 2023, and 3 buildings then completed in 2023 are already fully let. So it's they participate on the future -- financial occupancy weight and with a slight increase for the next year.

I think we should organize the visit of ranges to show how you have transformed the business part because it's not industrial -- it's much more than that, but that will be for next year. Question on the first one, and you have another one on line? No. We have written question now? No.

Stéphane Afonso, Invest Securities. So maybe 2 follow-up questions on my side. So the first one on Icade's liquidity events. So would you be prepared to buy back some minority stake for the shareholders. And for Icade promotion, could we have an idea of the proportion of the -- of your offer for sale that is under auction? And for -- and also how confident are you with your land bank value?

On the first question, I will answer -- I'm not sure I catch the second one. On the liquidity event is to organize liquidity, my understanding as of today, but I'm not the right to speak on behalf of minority shareholders. But my understanding is that everyone wants to -- we have to organize the liquidity, but they have strong confidence in the asset class. Look, I don't think there will be any event on the short term, but this is my personal view. This is not a statement coming from minority shareholders again. Could you just repeat your second question on development because...

My question is....

Wear the microphone. Excuse me, we need the microphone on the first row.

In the housing part, what is the proportion of your offer for sale that is under auction?

On which one?

[indiscernible]

The proportion of the option in the development property, we have a prospect that came in the state in our shop to buy apartment. And after they are going to the bank to have a loan. And the time between the both is 3 months. So we have nearly 2,000 customers to -- we are going to go to the notary for the act.

I don't know if there is a final question. I had one written, but the question has disappeared. That's good news. It was a question from Chris asking for underlying option for guidance for 2023. So it's not a guidance yet to give you outlook and flavor. And maybe to answer that question, for sure, we take account of level of indexation, around 4%. We assume that short-term interest on our short-term debt will remain more or less stable. That's the kind of assumption that we have for the time being. Thank you for your attention. Thank you for your presence here. So we have now -- and I hope a number of you will stay with us at lunch and then a visit of the campus. Thank you very much. And if you have any other additional questions, do not hesitate to send them to and Sophie or Victoire, would be more than happy to revert to you. Thank you.