Imperial Brands PLC ($IMB)

Okay. Thank you for attending this fireside chat this afternoon with Lukas Paravicini, Chief Executive of Imperial; and Murray McGowan, CFO of Imperial Brands. I'm Damian McNeela, research analyst at Deutsche Bank.

So I think, Lukas, if we just start, we're approaching on the year anniversary of you taking over the reins of Chief Exec. Can you perhaps just provide us with some reflections on how you think the last year has gone and where your areas of focus have been, please?

Well, thank you very much for hosting us, Damian, and a very warm welcome to all of you here in the room and online. As you said, it's a fast-paced time. Time passes fast, and there's never a dull moment to start with. I have enjoyed the first 8 months a lot. I've enjoyed traveling a lot to the markets, see our teams, meeting our consumers and sense the energy, the motivation to build on our strong foundations and continue to deliver shareholder value. We are performing and transforming. So we are performing in the short term. We are delivering. We had a good start to '26. We had a good start to the Strategy 2030. We are delivering operational and financial performance. We have reconfirmed our guidance for a double-digit growth in NGP for the full year. And so our challenger approach remains at the heart of what we do and the source of competitive advantage. And we are transforming, which is really important as well. And the transformation really has 2 legs, which is significant opportunity in self-help efficiencies, and we have committed to GBP 320 million. We're off the track really well. And we're looking at also making sure that we deliver a transformation that allows us to be closer to the consumer, tap into technology, including AI and actually search for that additional revenue, which is really the attractive part of the transformation. The efficiency is the ticket to the game. It's a necessary thing we want to do. No consumer pays for inefficiency, but the added-on capability to use our talents better through technology is really the added benefit. So really excited with what we have done so far and what we have in front of us.

Yes. Okay. And I think, obviously, the recent interim results, we had the sort of a broader discussion about market share dynamics and the interplay with managing profitability. Is it worth just refreshing us on what the Imperial approach is and how we should think about the recent performance?

Yes. A very good question. And I think as a consumer company, market share is a very important metric. And it has been important in the past. We have reconfirmed the importance of market share at the consumer -- at the Capital Markets Day last year, and it remains very important. And in fact, if you look back by end of '25, we've gained 50 basis points market share in those famous aggregate 5 markets, but we also gained 195 basis points in the U.S. But also, we are evolving, and we want to fine-tune for the sake of value generation for shareholders, the market share approach, especially in an environment like the U.S. where you have the price ladder expanding significantly. What does that mean? You can make 7x your gross margin at the top versus the bottom segment. It is the extreme, I admit that, and you would look at Spain and Germany, you get 3x that. And that means that volume share, 1 bps volume share is not equal. And hence, we are looking at where do we double down at the top, while we play at the bottom because we have consumers, but we play with a balance of pricing. So in a given year, we might choose to not gain market share because we don't want to invest in the bottom and rather price. And that's the case in the U.S. We've gained market share segment share in Winston Pool, but we have not doubled down on the bottom. We've gained share, but we have not wanted to invest in the bottom, we rather took price because that is a better value long term. So value share remains important, but not every bps of volume share is equal.

Yes. Yes, that's fair. And then you sort of -- you mentioned the U.S. I mean it's your biggest market. It's a market that's seen quite a lot of shifts over the last 12 to 18 months, consumer, regulation. Can you just give us some insights on how you see U.S. combustibles business at the minute and then perhaps specifically talk about maybe your aspirations in deep discount with Malibu?

Sure. I mean it is fair to say that we've got a portfolio of countries which are very interesting, starting with the U.S. U.S. has always been an interesting market and has been always a well-performing market and it continues to be an affordable market where we have a great offering at any price point. So that has not changed. And in fact, I would say, compared to a year ago, you have even seen an improvement in the market in terms of volume. I remember lots of discussion a year ago, even 2 years ago about volume decreases in the U.S. being at the high single digits. This time, we are at 5.5%. We've seen better improvement enforcement in vape. We've seen better price elasticity because there has been more activity, more players in the bottom segment. That has had a benefit in our consumer base. So that has improved. I would also be very clear that as much as perhaps it is not sort of is a bit more chaotic in terms of the announcement of the FDA, if you're fair and you stand back, over the last 8 months, the FDA has gone in the right direction. And it's very clear that they do genuine efforts to reduce the backlog of PMTAs and simplify the process. Do we need more clarity? Do we need more information? Do we need more clarification? Yes. But if you tell me about the context of the U.S., it has always been an affordable. We have a great position, and it has improved in terms of volume and FDA regulation. Within that, we have operated with discipline. We have maintained our share at Kool and Winston at the top, which have gained market segment share. We have grown market share in Crown, but we have also priced, as I said before, to extract that value that we want. We have launched Malibu, which, to be fair, is not going to be a big brand. We're not going to put a lot of money behind it, but it allows us to have a base at the bottom that now allows us to price all other Crown and Sonoma according to the rhythm of the tobacco industry. And don't forget, we are very strong in mass market cigars. We have Backwoods, which is an iconic brand, which is gaining segment share again. So really very pleased with the U.S.

Yes. Okay. That's pretty clear. I think Germany is a market that historically in the last 5-year plan, you struggled to recover market share. But the last couple of periods, we've seen good improvement in market share. Can you just talk about what's been happening on the ground to sort of support that improvement in share and how we should think about developments going forward in Germany?

Yes. I think we're really pleased with the performance of the German market. It's a market with very predictable pricing, stable tax excise regime and a very highly affordable market. If I think what we've done, the playbook we've applied in Germany is the same as the playbook we've applied in other markets. We've invested behind our brands. So really pleased with the performance at the top end with likes of Gala and Davidoff. And then Paramount at the lower end, catching those people who want to down trade has performed very well, really capturing some significant volume. We've also invested behind our sales force. So last year, we invested behind the sales force for combustibles. We put more people in behind our NGP business today as well in Germany. So it's a really appealing market for us. But the playbook in Germany is the same as the playbook we apply in the markets. And it's great to see the performance continue of that market after what was a number of years of significant share decline.

Yes. Okay. And if we move to a market that sort of seems to be moving from challenge to challenge in the U.K. It's still a significant profit contributor. How do you still see the attractiveness of the U.K. market given the sort of the regulatory backdrop?

The U.K. is an interesting market for us. It remains one of our top 5 markets. But it's a relatively low volume share now. It's around 3% of volume of the group. It's a market that has seen high excise increases over time. So it's a less affordable market compared to some of the others. But I'm pleased with how our business has performed in that area. The team has done a good job, and we've prioritized value over share. So again, focusing on our brand investment to support that, but also taking reasonable pricing steps over time. The benefit in the U.K., we have is the ability to offset some of that through our next-generation products business. And we've got a very good position within vaping in the U.K. So it's over 10% share now for our blue product. And we've recently launched into modern oral as well, which is still an early start, but made a really good promising early start for next-generation growth within the U.K. market.

Yes. Okay. And then Spain, the sort of -- you have sort of a mix of international brands and local dual brands. How different is that to other markets you operate in? And how do you manage the interplay of making sure that you deliver your targets from that portfolio?

Yes. I mean the U.K. -- the Spain market is interesting. It's probably one of the most affordable markets we're present in. So price for a pack of cigarettes in Spain, anything from EUR 5 up now versus the U.K. at probably GBP 17 for a pack of cigarette. So a real affordable market. And in the market, we're very choiceful again on brand investment. So we invest behind some of our local jewel brands, the likes of Ducados or some of our more scale brands such as West in Spain. So we continue to make very choiceful moves across the portfolio to make sure we can optimize value creation in the marketplace, very pleased with the way the business is performing, but it does remain a very, very highly affordable market with very low levels of volume decline over time. So a very attractive market from our perspective.

Yes. And then perhaps the smallest one of the sort of so-called top 5 markets in Australia. It continues to be challenging operating environment, but still very profitable. I mean what steps is the business taking to protect profitability? What is the sort of outlook for Australia, I guess, over the short to medium term?

We've always said that Australia is a difficult market. That's not new. We've -- I started in this group 5 years ago. It was already then a difficult market. We knew that the profit pool would be shrinking. And on the back of the public health bill last year in April, that has accelerated. And we've now reached the flabbergasting 50% market size reduction in the first half. It is yet still a very profitable market, don't get me wrong, but it is becoming a smaller market, much smaller market. The challenge for us is not the market itself because it is profitable. It's a step down that you have seen in 1 year, which is really the pain for us. Once you go through that, we'll go back to a more normal, smaller market but profitable market. I also would say that I'm really impressed with our team, how they -- in a very difficult market. And remember, you can't go into NGP. It's a forbidden category. So in that environment, our team have done a phenomenal job to extract value, to adapt the operating model. We have gone from a direct model to a hybrid model to an indirect model. We have reduced our labor force there. So we have adapted well. And I'm sure that in the next 2 years, we will be less talking about Australia. Currently, it is less than 1% of our volume. It's less than 1.5% of our sales. So it's really not something that we're going to be talking too much about, but it will remain a valuable business going forward.

So perhaps then talking -- switching to some of the areas where you might be talking a bit more. You've got a quite a large range of growth markets that you operate in. Is it worth just talking about some of those bigger growth markets specifically and what you're doing in them and the sort of the growth opportunities you see going forward?

Yes. Thanks for addressing that because I think we talk a lot about the 5 markets, and there are still 5 markets because we have committed to the aggregate market share of those 5 markets. But in reality, if you step back, when you look at our strategy, which is a very simple compelling strategy is generate sustainable value out of combustible, grow our NGP business to a meaningful business and then transform the business to generate self-help and future revenue growth. If you go back to the sustainable value generation of combustible, that's applicable to all markets. So we have a very nice portfolio. Yes, we have U.K., which is an interesting NGP market. We have Australia, but we also have U.S., Germany, Spain, highly affordable, highly attractive markets. And we have Africa, for example. It's 10% of our AOP. It's growing ahead of the other -- of the group average. We also have leading position in what we call Middle East, Africa -- sorry, Asia, Middle East. We have a leading position there. We have leading position in Central Eastern Europe. And we don't talk much about it, and it is on a much smaller basis, don't get me wrong. But Southeast Europe, where we have markets like Italy, Romania, Bulgaria, they have done very well in tobacco. And as I said, starting from a lower base, but they have done very well, gaining share there. And all these markets, be that Central Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe or Europe in general, have huge potential in NGP as well.

And just one sort of like a broader question on the ability of the combustibles business to keep delivering pricing. What's your degree of conviction that you can deliver pricing to offset the volume declines you're seeing in general?

There's one statement only. The tobacco model, excluding U.K. and Australia, as you know, is working very well. And especially where your volume decreases are lower, your pricing need is less. So our target is not an absolute pricing. Our target is a net revenue because the tobacco model works, trading a net revenue that is slightly positive with a volume decrease, and that gives a huge lever on your operating profit. That is a tobacco model. With the affordable we see in Europe, in the U.S., Germany, Spain, with the growth we see in East -- in Africa, that model works very well still.

Okay. And if we move now to have a look at the NGP business. I think growth in the first half was just under 8%. The ambition is to get that to sort of almost double. What are the levers that you're going to be pulling? Or what are the things that are going to help drive that in the second half?

Look, I think you're right. We were 7.5% growth in NGP in the first half, which we've still committed to the double-digit growth for the full year. There's some elements to call out in terms of confidence of getting there. I think, first of all, we did talk at the half year results about a one-off charge that we had to take in the first half, which related to promotional activity over the course of our financial year-end that won't repeat. It's worth saying without that charge, it would have been double-digit growth at the half year and the U.S. would have been very strong net revenue growth in NGP as well. In terms of -- if I look across the different regions, what the drivers are, U.S., we continue to see good performance in the modern oral business in the U.S. We have a recent acquisition of Black Buffalo, which is a great addition to our NGP portfolio in the U.S. and allow us to go after quite a distinct consumer segment with the products really targeting those users of moist smokeless tobacco today, which will be incremental in the second half. If we then look at Europe, we're seeing really good performance within vaping as people transition from disposables to pod-like systems. And we've got some great performance within heated tobacco in Southern Europe, particularly Italy, Romania. And in the Nordics as well, we've seen some great performance of Ma oral. And within a race region, that Central and Eastern Europe block, we're seeing good performance of heated tobacco, across likes of Poland, Hungary, Czech. So I'm feeling good about the drivers we've got and the performance of the portfolio as a whole and that we'll deliver against our double-digit commitment for the full year.

Yes. And just sort of the Black Buffalo acquisition, I think it's sort of -- it's a category that not many people are familiar with. perhaps caught people a little bit off side. Can you just sort of talk us through what you saw and what you liked in the acquisition?

I think the acquisition for us, it was absolutely in line with us as a challenger business looking to grow a scale proposition within next-generation products. The reason we like the proposition. So it really targets those users of moist smokeless tobacco in the U.S., so loose tobacco or pouches, but real tobacco inside, but gives them a tobacco-free alternative. And often for those people that use moist smokeless today, modern oral is quite a departure from their habit they're used to, whereas the Black Buffalo proposition really recreates the habit they've got. We think it's quite a unique brand. The founders of the business did a great job of building a brand that really resonates with the target consumer. And as we tested it with a very broad range of consumers, it tests very well. It tests very well against established brands within the MST category. So we're feeling good about the opportunity to really scale that brand and bring another option for a reduced risk product to consumers in the U.S.

Yes. Okay. Pretty clear. If we then look at the sort of the heated tobacco business that you've got, Pulse has been performing pretty well across a couple of European markets. Can you sort of talk about the specifics of what -- who you're targeting in those markets and what the strategies are to grow it?

Yes, it's a very good question. And I think it is -- so we are quite distinctive in our strategy. We have, as I said before, a clear target to grow double digit our NGP business because we want to build a meaningful business and hopefully, over time, unlock our terminal value. And it is important for our purpose. But we do that with high discipline, high discipline because we recognize as the fourth largest player. It is not for us to create markets where they do not exist or where we do not have to route to market. So we will continue to be very disciplined because our focus is on our shareholders, on creating a double-digit -- meaningful business that is profitable. And ultimately, we want our fair share in that. But it's also important, if you look to your point, where we are successful, where we are playing, we focus really a lot on our consumer. We will, as a challenger, always start with our consumer. And that allows us to innovate our products. So don't get me wrong, where we go in a market, we go with everything in a market, and we will bring innovations to the market. Pulse is a very good example where we have innovated again with our latest device, which is called Pulze 3.0 and the sticks that go with it, be that herbal sticks, so we can offer flavors or the tobacco sticks that allows smokers to move further from smoking into the heated tobacco. And that product, because it resonates with the consumer because we start with casino has done extremely well in Italy, in Central and Eastern Europe and also in Greece, where that's a predominant category.

Now perhaps the NGP category that gets the most attention, pouches. So I'll ask the FDA question first is how do you see the changes that the FDA have put forward in terms of the criteria around the PMTA pathway to sort of launching products?

Yes. As I said before, if you step back over the last 8 months, we could see a genuine interest and effort and success in the FDA, not just curbing illicit together with other federal entities and authorities, but also working on the backlogs of the FDA and simplifying the process so that manufacturers like us have a visibility that if we would submit a PMTA, we also see the light of the -- at the end of the day so that we can launch that product. I think that is very much welcome. It's not just for the pouches. We understand this is a general guidance. Like everything, we are waiting for more clarity. We need more codification. So this can be perpetuated and not reversed in a year's time or in 2 years' time. So I think that welcomes. And it aligns with the interest in this category. It does not allow everybody to play in this category. Let's be clear. It helps the big players like us because you still need a lot of money to go into a PMTA. You still need to do clinical tests rightly so. They take 12 months at least. You have to submit a lot of documentation. You need resources. But now at least, we know that if we do that, we have a pathway to launch that product, which is very helpful. Now let's be clear, if I go back to the O&D category in the U.S., we are focusing on that category. Black Buffalo will extend, which is part of the Motel nicotine will extend that category for us. We'll also give better presence in the retail outlets. But we have the benefit in that case that we already have a pipeline of innovations that is grandfathered. So we can launch new flavors. We can launch new new strengths that we do not require to have a PMTA. So the FDA is more a long-term benefit for us. Short term, we will be able to continue to be successful and build share as we have done in the past in oral nicotine.

Yes. And in terms of -- I think at the pre-close, you made some comments about increased competition in U.S. pouch category. Given the news over the last couple of days with new launches coming into the market, what -- how do you feel about the competitive nature of the U.S. pouch market over the next couple of months?

I think what we need to understand the O&D market or the oral nicotine market, the modern oral nicotine is a nascent category. It's an attractive category from a margin point of view, it's growing fast. So it is quite typical in any consumer business that if you have such a category that the leaders of the segment, the leaders of the market would invest heavily to increase trial, to increase awareness of that category, attracting more consumers. That's not unusual. And normally, what happens is that your volume growth is ahead of the net revenue growth. And there is no difference today in the R&D. You see volume growth ahead of the net revenue growth. In that environment, we do very well with our innovation and our focus on the consumer, we know best. We're growing share. We're growing 8%, 40% volume with the adjustment of the promotional activity at the year-end, we're growing over 20% of net revenue. So I think it is a category that is in its own dynamic, growing and the innovation that we are seeing will only ferment that.

And when you sort of look at Europe, where obviously, you're performing well with Zone and [ Screwf ] and the U.S. where you're starting to sort of get traction, is there a market where you sort of want to succeed more in? Or is it sort of you want to succeed equally in both those environments?

No, I think we start with the consumer where we are, we will want to win with the consumer. Now again, winning for us means not beating the bigger players. I think that's one thing that we are very clear what is the role of our -- of being the fourth largest. But we want to have our fair share. We want to have an attractive profitable business that is growing at double digit, and we're well on the way to.

Yes. Okay. And then in vapes, you sort of -- you made the decision to pull out of the U.S. Can you just talk about the rationale for doing that and whether you would ever consider going back in? And then secondly, sort of the European performance of vapes has been pretty strong. And can you just talk about how you think about that market going forward, please?

Yes. No, we're really pleased with the performance of vape in Europe. Europe are a key focus for vaping. It's the one where we see the most established markets for vaping, and it's one where the regulation allows us to innovate at pace in the marketplace. Within Europe, you do see a transition, I talked before around from disposables to pod-like devices. So in the U.K. and France, we've seen that transition take place. I think we performed very well through that period. So we've managed to gain share as those transitions have taken place and now double the share in baking in the U.K. So it remains a really highly attractive category in the U.K. and one we'll continue to invest behind. I think in the U.S., it's quite different. The product that we had on sale or myblu product in the U.S. was a product which has been on sale since 2017, so almost 10 years old now. And it's a product which only went after the lower strength segment of the market. It's around 20% of the vaping market in the U.S. So it was a smaller segment with a better age device up against illicit devices, which are the latest technology. So for us, it was a small revenue pool, making a small loss. It was in a world of being choice that was a challenger, it was the right decision for us to come out. To your question about going back in, we continue to look at it. I think with greater clarity on the FDA regulation and more certainty in the time line versus what we've seen historically, then for sure, we'd look at that as an opportunity in the future, especially given the strong performance of our baking business in Europe.

Okay. I mean, one of the key attributes that everybody likes about Imperial is cash resilience and the conversion rate. What are the key drivers that you believe sustain that strong cash generation over the medium term?

Yes. You're right. The tobacco model is a very cash-generative model. So the business does create a lot of cash. And we've demonstrated with the robustness of the tobacco pricing model that we can offset volume declines through pricing in the vast majority of our markets. I would say internally, how do we manage to drive this internally? I think cash generation has the same level of focus as P&L management in the business. So we talk a lot about cash and how we manage cash as a business, whether that's through management of our capital spend in the business. We spent around GBP 350 million a year investing in growth for the business, but also management of working capital. So it gets a lot of time and attention from the team as a whole that allows us to really drive a strong cash conversion for the business, which clearly think is a compelling narrative for our investors as to why the business is an attractive investment.

Yes. And do you have any sort of contingencies in place to sort of defend against, I guess, worsening consumer backdrop or particular geopolitical shocks?

As you expect every year, as we look at cash and the options making around capital allocation, we're very clear. So first and foremost, we'll invest in our business, the GBP 250 million I talked about. Secondly, we maintain a strong balance sheet. So we always keep our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio between 2 and 2.5, so typically the lower end of the full year. We offer a progressive dividend and excess capital, we look to return to our shareholders, and that's an annual discussion with the Board. So this year, we'll complete a GBP 1.45 billion share buyback. And in those discussions with the Board around our headroom for that, we always consider the unexpected. So are there any potential legal cases on the horizon, any tax settlements potentially on the horizon and also giving yourselves some buffer. So it's always part of that consideration each year with the Board of how we use the cash in the business.

Yes. I think, Lukas, you mentioned earlier GBP 320 million of cash cost savings by 2030. Can you just talk us through the sort of the self-help opportunities that the business has to deliver on those and the confidence that you have in delivering that?

We have a lot of self-confidence on the self-help. So listen, I mean, as I said before, the transformation has 2 legs, which is the self-help and obviously, the revenue growth that we can generate by tapping more in technology and our talent pools by enabling them better. If I start with the efficiency gains, again, we would split that in 2 areas largely, which is your manufacturing footprint and manufacturing excellence. And again, we have announced the closure of Langenhagen, which is one of our largest and most costly factory. We have just announced the sale of our Taiwan factory. Both of them will be concluded by mid next year. That will generate EUR 100 million savings. That's very simple. It's quite an effective way. But I think it would be false to just think that we can close factories and that's the efficiency gains. Our factories, our strategic factory, where there are quite a few still, they have an opportunity to really step up in their manufacturing excellence, yield management, OEE, labor efficiency, et cetera. That alone through our manufacturing excellence program with all the people we've brought in to run this now properly has generated or will generate GBP 25 million of savings in '26. So that's on the manufacturing. And I think there's quite a bit more self-help to come. So we're very confident in what we have guided. The other element is more the beyond manufacturing, what we can do there. And there is where I think we knew that if we really want to accelerate the opportunity, we wanted to partner. And that partner is Capgemini, who has real good experience in terms of industry, also consumer and has done this multiple times. And I think that's where if you step back, if you look at the broader shared services, there's a varied maturity level in terms of just transactional to the high-end, more consumer-centric shared services where you would say large consumer companies. They have gone there in 20 years. We are planning to go there in 2 years because we plan to go there in an end-to-end approach and design. That's a benefit of us being late to the party, but now getting to a destination where others have taken much longer. And we can work with someone who has done this multiple times and for whom we will become probably the fifth largest customer.

Yes. So I mean, in terms of if we just dig into that sort of Capgemini sort of relationship, I think just under 400 people have moved from Imperial to Capgemini. Sort of what's the sort of short- to medium-term outlook for those sort of more people to do that? And then kind of longer term, what is the opportunity from that relationship with Capgemini?

Again, I'm very excited. And I was -- just last week, I was at the Capital Markets Day of Capgemini because Aiman Ezzat, the CEO of Capgemini interviewed me. And so it's an interesting interview to see what is actually the benefit of working with Capgemini if somebody is interested. But for us, really Capgemini is a partner that allows us to do this at pace. So you mentioned the 400 people. We signed the contract in February -- by 2 months later, we had 400 roles shifted into Capgemini with a retention rate of 99%. Now that's a start. We'll give you updates whenever we have updates. We also want to be clear we have to go through some process to do that, but you will see more coming in that. We have been very clear that Capgemini will continue to help us in those functions. Again, what I think is very interesting, though, is what we can do with Capgemini on the revenue growth opportunities is if you think about their technology, they actually consumer insight, which they have gained with other industries. If we can do in silico modeling, if we can do digital twins, that will shorten the innovation cycle that will allow us to get to market faster. That's a significant benefit. We are piloting -- and actually, we have rolled out the pilot now in full of Italy and all of Italy and also in France. an artificial intelligence system that helps our sales force to prepare better their visits. What have we seen? We have seen a 10% to 15% time efficiency. So they -- by doing that with the artificial intelligence agent that we have implemented, they gain time, but they also gain orders in the sense that the artificial intelligence agent can help prepare the sales speech much better. They understand they can go into the customer conversation much better preparing. There are multiple opportunities there. We will be very focused on selected opportunities where we have the biggest support of our strategy, the biggest impact, but that will be the -- the equally interesting piece to that relationship with Capgemini. The EUR 320 million, which Capgemini is a big driver of that is the ticket to the game. which is part of what we have committed. The upside is hopefully an equally interesting opportunity.

Okay. That's very clear. And then sort of as we move to the end of the meeting, capital allocation, I think you touched on it before, Murray, lots of conversations around investing in the business for growth. And obviously, you've made the recent acquisition. But can you just sort of provide like the degree of conviction that you've got in the business' ability to deliver on the shareholder returns that you've got in place, cost dividend and obviously, the Evergreen buyback?

We're clear that the share buyback is a great way of us delivering value to our shareholders, and we're very disciplined in the way we get to that figure with the Board described earlier. I would observe if I go back to 2021 when we had a previous Capital Markets Day, since that time between share buyback and dividend, we've delivered around GBP 11.5 billion to our shareholders. So around 77% of our market capitalization at the time. So quite an outstanding static. As we did the modeling for this 5-year plan looking forward, we're very confident in the cash generation of the business and our ability to sustain an evergreen share buyback through the course of this plan. As I said before, we don't commit to future years as to what the figure is. It will be a meaningful figure. It may not necessarily go up every year, but it will be a very meaningful part of our proposition for shareholders going forward.

Yes. Okay. And under strict instructions from Mr. Cross to get you out of here slightly ahead of schedule.

So you have a busy day.

Yes. So I think with that, I would just like to say thank you very much, Lukas and Murray, for your time. It's been very enlightening. And thank you very much, everybody, for listening.

Thank you very much.

Thank you.