Indorama Ventures Public Company Limited (IVL) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon. Welcome, and thank you for taking the time to join us for Indorama Ventures Third Quarter '24 Results Briefing. My name is Vikash Jalan, Vice President, Investor Relations and Planning at IVL. Joining me today, we have Mr. D.K. Agarwal, Deputy Group CEO and Group CFO; Muthukumar and Kumar Ladha, Presidents and Co-Leaders for CPET; Alastair Port, Executive President for Indovinya; and Diego Boeri, Executive President for Fibers segment. Quick disclaimer that this meeting is being recorded, and a replay of this session will be available on our website after the meeting. Of course, we have made a few assumptions estimates on future trends for our industry and business, which are based on analysis of available information at this point in time. So with that, I now invite Mr. Agarwal first to share business and financial highlights for third quarter. Over to you, please, Mr. Agarwal.

Good afternoon. Thank you, Vikash. I think let's first discuss the macroeconomic backdrop, which is directly or indirectly impacts this industry as well as our businesses. We always bring you the slide. In third quarter, the U.S. experienced a slowdown in growth while economic conditions in China remained lackluster with poor domestic demand, as you know, with the housing bubble, which they have. Geopolitical uncertainty and a cautious economic outlook are causing continued overall softness in the world, except India is a sweet spot where we see good growth. Freight rates remain elevated due to disruption in the Red Sea and making imports expensive. As you see this graph, after a slight decline in October, we have seen 15% increase in Shanghai Freight Index in the last couple of weeks. Crude oil price declined to $75 a barrel in September, leading to some inventory losses, which you will see in our reported EBITDA. However, low gas prices are sustaining the U.S. gas advantage. You're all aware, recent U.S. election saw the strong win for Republicans, and this will support U.S. economy in coming few years. IVL, being a local producer in the United States with around 40% revenue and 51% of EBITDA, is expected to benefit with likely increase in tariffs. As you have seen, the new administration has announced that there will be increase in tariffs even from outside other countries, China as well as other countries, reduction in corporate taxes and lower shale gas prices with more O&G production. As they say, drill, baby, drill. Though Fed has recently reduced 25 basis points, but we expect the pace of rate cuts might be a bit slowing down forward due to inflationary fears. As you know, the treasury yields have gone up. So there is inflation fear, and we may see how things move in the coming quarters. Now let me walk you through the key highlights and financial for third quarter '24. This is after consecutive 8 quarters of low performance. Indorama Ventures achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $427 million in third quarter '24, a solid 15% increase quarter-on-quarter, and 32% increase year-on-year, driven by steady volumes. As you can see, the volume growth has only 1% year-on-year. Cost reductions led by proactive actions, which we detailed out in CMD, and improved benchmark spreads across all segments. This quarter makes the first year-on-year improvement in performance for the year following, as I mentioned, prolonged period of challenges related to de-stocking and the industry down cycle. This signals recovery moment across all 3 segments, as you will see the performance of 3 segments. The company has demonstrated that our diverse global business portfolio enables resilient results through different market cycles because of our geographical and product diversification. And product demand remains robust, keeping our volumes intact. PET and Fiber volumes have remained steady through the years, while actually Indovinya experienced peak season in the Crop Solutions market. If we look at reported EBITDA, reported EBITDA was affected by a $38 million inventory loss this quarter, largely due to decline in the crude oil prices as well as paraxylene prices. As you know, paraxylene margins collapsed and that resulted in our valuation of inventory being lower. Additionally, our operating cash flow was lower in third quarter '24, impacted by net working capital outflows resulting from increased inventories, including in transit due to extended lead time from ongoing supply chain disruptions. As you know, we import PTA in some of our European locations. I'm very pleased to inform the company has made substantial progress on initiatives online in the IVL 2.0 vision, in line with expectation, focusing on de-leveraging and improving quality of funding. Management's relentless focus on cost is beginning to yield results. The asset rationalization program that IVL took action on last quarter has begun delivering fixed cost savings of $19 million this quarter and sequentially increase as into the next year as the full benefit of $170 million per annum is fully realized in 2025. As you know, we shut down the assets in different timing, so the full benefit will come in 2025. It is important to note that the outlined actions for the CPET and Indovinya segments has now been completed with Fibers yet to be implemented. Diego will cover that, what actions have been taken in fiber, and probably $40 million of additional savings will flow in '25. Operating rates for the group increased from 69% in third quarter '23 to 82% this quarter. And for CPET, they increased from 69% to 84% in the same period. This program aligns with our long-term strategy to optimize the asset base as we go into first quartile cost of production, improve operational efficiency, and strengthen profitability over the cycle. As I mentioned, Fiber has made concerted effort over the past year to reduce fixed cost across the entire portfolio. This is before the rationalization of any assets, which as I mentioned. In addition, within the Hygiene and Mobility verticals, management took aggressive actions to gain back lost market share through price adjustment by enhancing volumes and reducing costs, including improved utility costs significantly over the years. We continue to be a market leader in our key areas. And once volume capture and cost structure initiatives are fully stabilized, management will shift its focus on further margin improvements. So we really see a big journey in the Fiber and an improvement going forward. It's pleased to inform that our digital journey has accelerated post the implementation of our digital core in the form of S/4HANA. The company is engaged in the implementation of our digital initiatives, which are progressing in line with the schedule. North America is already benefiting from a new AI-driven source-to-contract solution in the procurement excellence journey. Our manufacturing excellence program has started to bring in results by improving our workforce productivity through our Connected Worker Platform. The first supply -- sales and supply chain solutions are expected to go live in first quarter '25. We have strengthened both existing and new partnership to expedite value delivery throughout the entire organization. Moreover, significant efforts are being put into changes management to facilitate smooth transition and ensure the adaptability of our workforce to new processes and technologies. So this is a beginning of our journey for digitalization. Underpinning the company's resiliency in the management team, to this end this year, as you know, company has initiated pivotal changes in the organization structure. In order to sustainably drive the initiatives in IVL 2.0 and growth beyond, company is creating focused and dedicated management teams across each of the businesses, led by empowered and accountable leaders. We have nearly completed the restructuring of CPET, Fiber and Indovinya, and further restructuring is in place. These transitions push operational delivery to the respective businesses, leaving a leaner corporate that's reducing the overall cost and that will focus on strategic delivery. As we look ahead, the global economic environment still remains uncertain with potential impacts from continued inflationary pressure, geopolitical tension and supply chain disruption. However, as we rolled out in our CMD, our strategic focus on cost management, asset rationalization and leveraging market opportunities through our global network position us well as to navigate these challenges and capitalize upturn as economic conditions improve. We certainly see the trough behind us and we see the recoveries happening. In line with our IVL 2.0 plan, Indorama Venture remains committed to enhancing the quality of earning, creating free cash flows, and driving value creation across our stakeholders. Now let us look at closer look at the sales volume. In third quarter, as you can see, overall sales volumes were stable at 3.54 million tonnes year-on-year and lower 3% quarter-on-quarter due to lower PTA volumes from asset rationalization. As you know, we count PTA in the volumes. Now PTA assets have been rationalized in Europe. However, end demand for PET, Indovinya and Fiber products remain strong. If you look at CPET volume, decline this quarter mainly driven by lower PTA volume, post asset rationalization. As I said, this make-or-buy decision, we are buying PTA rather than making it. As we progress further with this rationalization in Q4, PTA volumes are expected to remain lower. However, steady PET demand even during the traditionally low season is helping to balance the impact and maintain stable CPET volume. So basically, we have migrated -- have from high-cost to low-cost countries like Turkey, Lithuania and Poland. Indovinya volume shows continued recovery with a 10% year-on-year increase after de-stocking has come to an end, as you can see from the volumes here. Fiber volumes grew 1% quarter-on-quarter, driven by increased demand in Hygiene and Lifestyle verticals, despite a seasonal slowdown in Mobility volume during the holiday vacation period in Europe. Looking ahead, fourth quarter, we expect higher Lifestyle volume, particularly in Asia, as demand sequentially recover. You will see that Lifestyle and PET margins have improved, which is helping. American volumes are expected to be stable but lower due to PTA rationalization of Canada assets, which came in effect from 31st August. Now this is just an update on what is happening on our strategic action. This quick snapshot, summarizing the update on strategic actions, starting with asset rationalization program. In second quarter '24, we executed a comprehensive asset rationalization program, and that is strengthening our asset base, improving cash flow and enhance quality of earning. We shut down high-cost PET/PTA assets in Rotterdam, PTA assets in Canada and ethylene oxides asset in Australia as the upstream ethane supplier shut down and others where impairments are already taken in second quarter of '24. As we told you, these actions are already yielding results with initial fixed cost saving of approximately $19 million realized in second quarter '24, on track to reach annual savings of $160 million to $170 million by 2025 as rationalizations materially take effect. 14% of targeted manpower reduction achieved in third quarter '24, and rest to achieve by 2025 plus other fixed overheads. Alongside this cost saving, our actual EBITDA enhancement, we expect about $140 million to $150 million by 2025. Operating rates will improve to, as all you've already seen, 82% in third quarter '24, reinforcing the positive outcome from our rationalization efforts. Other key financial targets include improved ROCE, higher return on equity, and together with reduced depreciation and maintenance CapEx. And we remain committed to delivering all the KPIs announced under this initiative, and we'll provide you a regular update on the progress. Please note that we expect to realize around $120 million to $140 million from the sale of land and other properties in impaired assets in 2025 or early 2026, which is to be accounted as income on receipt of the cash proceeds. This question has come from a few of our investors that what will be that saving, and that we think $120 million to $140 million, but we will account that when this is cash realized. Next slide. Another important is the unlocking the value, so progress of IPOs and divestments. Starting with IPOs. We have made significant progress in preparing 2 major businesses for public listing. First, our downstream pure-play business of IOD, which known as Indovinya, now branded as Indovinya, has reached a critical mass and is well positioned for a public listing as soon as market conditions are favorable. Targeted for first quarter '26, Indovinya is currently in the reorganization phase with pre-consultation initiated with market authorities to ensure alignment on regulatory requirement and time lines. Similarly, Indovida, our re-branded Packaging business, is also advancing towards an IPO targeted for fourth quarter '25. Preparations are underway with the consultation with the financial adviser. These 2 IPOs are expected to raise a combined $1 billion. For non-core divestments, we have 2 key projects, Luster and Cobra. These are profitable operations with existing interest from buyers. We aim to complete this divestment by fourth quarter '25, targeting proceeds of around $300 million. These updates reflect our commitment to 2026 target established at the beginning of the year with each project progressing towards its respective milestone. We remain focused on executing our strategy, and we'll continue to keep you informed of further progress in the quarter's end. So this was an update on IVL 2.0 on asset retaliation and unlocking the value of subsidiaries. Now let us see our third quarter results in more detail. In third quarter, we posted an adjusted EBITDA of $427 million, highest since third quarter '22, with a 32% year-on-year increase driven by steady volumes, cost reductions led by proactive management actions, and improved benchmark spreads across all segments. We have seen the improvement in the Fiber spreads and integrated PET spreads. Quarter-on-quarter, EBITDA rose by 15% with higher contribution from all 3 segments. You can see $370 million to $427 million, demonstrating an operational improvement, effective cost-saving initiative and more favorable market environment. CPET experienced significant growth driven by resilient PET demand, higher China benchmark spreads, and fixed cost savings from asset rationalization. Looking ahead, the segment expect improved earning next years, supported by further fixed cost reductions from their asset rationalizations and better margins, as you will see in the coming slides. Indovinya continued to deliver a strong performance in third quarter '24. You can see sequentially first quarter of $70 million; second quarter, $98 million; third quarter, $106 million, driven by increased contribution from high-margin Crop Solutions due to seasonality in the Americas. Alastair will cover this in detail. Fibers showed positive momentum with improved Lifestyle benchmark spreads, particularly in polyester stable fiber in China and enhance fixed asset productivity through management action. So this covers your IVL by segments. Now it is also important to look at regional EBITDA. You can see from $427 million, nearly $307 million is coming from Americas. Americas means United States, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, so all the American continent. Year-on-year, European performance improved, showing a positive EBITDA contribution, primarily driven by asset rationalization. As you can see year-on-year, in the Americas, we saw improved performance due to higher volumes and better shale gas advantage. In Asia, performance increased as we capitalized on margin spread improvement. As you can see, this is the highest quarter in Asia, which is reflective of basically improvement in the spreads in PET integrated as well as the Fibers. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, as I was saying, Asia's performance benefited from higher margins, driven by improved benchmark spreads for both PET and Fiber, signaling early signs of recovery. Industry spreads have sustained in October after continued losses in last 4 quarters by industry players in China, and you will see some details in the coming slide. Performance in the Americas improved due to strong CPET demand in North America and Brazil, where extended lead times and costly imports due to ongoing disruption created favorable conditions for local production. Indovinya's robust performance, especially in South America, further supported the strong regional results in the third quarter. EMEA region faced challenges this quarter, primarily due to seasonal slowdown in Mobility Fibers during the holiday period because in Europe, this is holiday period. These pressures were partially offset by higher import parity from Asia, driven by the escalated Red Sea situation and by lower fixed costs from asset rationalization. So this gives you region by region. Now I hand over to Muthu to cover on CPET. Thank you.

Thank you, Mr. Agarwal. Good afternoon, everyone. Between my co-leader, Kumar Ladha and myself, we will cover the slides on Combined PET. I'm pleased to share today CPET's strong performance for the third quarter of '24, demonstrating the strength of our segment amidst evolving industry dynamics. Through a combination of proactive management and strategic actions, we delivered an adjusted EBITDA of $286 million for the third quarter, an increase of 23% quarter-over-quarter and 27% year-over-year. Excluding Intermediate Chemicals, CPET achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $215 million, reflecting a solid 25% increase quarter-over-quarter and an impressive 51% increase year-over-year. This growth was largely driven by improved benchmark spreads in Integrated PET and cost efficiencies, including from the strategic asset optimizations. While we experienced a modest volume decline due to reduced PTA sales from these optimizations, demand for our end products remained robust with stable PET volumes. Now if you're looking at Integrated PET, it delivered an adjusted EBITDA of $178 million, a 42% quarter-over-quarter increase, supported by stronger benchmark spreads and lower costs. We observed strong demand in North America and Brazil, fueled by extended lead times for overseas supplies as well as higher tariffs on imports. Our rationalization efforts have enabled us to maintain PET sales volume, while achieving a $17 million reduction in fixed cost this quarter. These fixed cost savings are expected to increase further in future quarters, following the completion of actions related to the rationalizations. And we have already provided for all major expenses related to rationalization in second quarter of '24 itself. Now our extensive global footprint and strong local presence provide a very distinct competitive advantage, enabling us to secure premium spreads above industry benchmarks. This advantage supports sustained positive cash flows, whereas many producers in China face cash breakeven or even losses due to the persistently low benchmark spreads over the historical levels. Looking at the Packaging business, it reported an adjusted EBITDA of $26 million for third quarter, a 3% decline quarter-over-quarter primarily due to short-term lower demand from adverse weather conditions in Thailand and Nigeria. However, recent expansions, we will discuss in the coming slides later, are expected to continue Packaging's strong overall growth trajectory. And in Specialty Chemicals, adjusted EBITDA was lower quarter-over-quarter mainly due to the impact of the NDC campaign that was carried out during Q1 and Q2. However, this was partially offset by improved margins in the PIA segment. Now looking to the industry itself, we would like to share the demand drivers, margin dynamics and strategic actions that indicate the growth potential in line with our proactive approach to capture this value. Demand for PET remains robust. As you can see from the chart on the left, in 2024, it is projected to grow steadily at 4.7% and also expected to remain stable in the coming years in the long term. This year, global PET demand growth is close to 4% for virgin and about 9% for recycled PET. Together, the growth is 4.7%. Furthermore, IVL benefits from our global presence and expansion in emerging markets like India and Nigeria, where the demand growth is quite strong around 9% to 10%. Now key drivers of this growth include population growth, consumer preference for sustainable packaging, unfavorable economic factors such as the recent interest rate cuts in the U.S. and the anticipated further cuts. These are predicted to boost consumption of our end products. And with rising global recycling rates, PET's role in the packaging industry is set to strengthen further. In the near term, spreads are stabilizing, supported by industry discipline. Margins have seen consistent recovery through Q3 2024. And we have also seen further improvement in October. While the ongoing Red Sea disruption keeps freight rates elevated, IVL's local presence in Europe and the Americas allows us to capture premiums due to the impact on import pricing. Based on these factors, CPET management is focused on sustaining and expanding our market share, maintaining our market premium by leveraging our global footprint, gaining efficiency from asset optimization, and reducing working capital cost to drive long-term value. Now to move to some recent case studies and highlights in overall progress for CPET. We are looking at this case study on recycling vertical. As you may know, Indorama Ventures has been a pioneer in PET recycling, a vision that has led us to become the global leader in this space, similar to what we are in the virgin resin space. We foresaw the value and impact of this business and have strategically invested to make it a core part of our future growth. Today, we have 20-plus facilities across Asia, EMEA and the Americas. Our recent JV with Varun Beverage, PepsiCo's second-largest bottling partner globally outside the U.S., in India is a strong example of how we are positioning for development. We are establishing several greenfield state-of-the-art PET recycling facilities across India. The JV has already begun the construction of 2 of these recycling facilities, and they are planned for completion in 2025 and early 2026, with potential for more. One of these facilities is located in the Northern India, in Jammu, while the other is in Eastern India in Odisha. Now our aim is to reach 100-plus -- capacity of 100-plus kiloton annual capacity of this recycled PET across all the facilities when combined. And India's impressive 90% collection rate and its target of 30% recycled content, the mandate by 2025, provide very strong momentum for this initiative and for our investments there. By expanding in this strategic market, IVL can leverage its existing ecosystem to drive growth and meet the increasing demand for the recycled content. Now looking at our Packaging business, Indovida, it is advantageously expanding into high-growth markets, and East Africa is a prime example. Our first converting plant in Tanzania is set to commission in January of '25. This will complement our existing presence in Nigeria, Ghana and Egypt, reinforcing our footprint across the continent. Tanzania's large and youthful population, with over 60% under the age of 25, represents a dynamic and growing consumer base and ideal for long-term market growth. Coupled with an annual GDP growth rate of around 6%, Tanzania offers a very favorable economic environment for expanding packaging and consumer goods industries. With substantial capacity, this plant will meet the rising demand for preforms and closures for major beverage companies in Tanzania and nearby countries, including Uganda, Kenya and Mozambique. Indovida benefits from attractive local fiscal policies, including zero import duties on resin. And we are equipped to produce preforms with rPET, aligning with sustainability goals of global brands like Coca-Cola and PepsiCo. We have already secured a multiyear supply contract as well with a major beverage company and similar partnerships are in the pipeline. Now this expansion positions Indovida as a strong sustainable partner in Africa's growing packaging market and with more investments being explored in markets like Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco. With that, I'll hand it over to my co-leader, Kumar Ladha.

Thank you, Muthu. Intermediate Chemicals reported an adjusted EBITDA of $71 million, reflecting a 15% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 14% decrease year-on-year. The 14% year-on-year decline in adjusted EBITDA was primarily due to weaker MTBE spreads as octane values softened from all-time highs. Partially, this was offset by better ethylene crack margins and improved integrated MEG margins and volumes. The 15% quarter-on-quarter adjusted EBITDA increase was driven by the normalization of the gas crackers volumes. Integrated MEG and PEO benefited from strong crack spreads, improving -- an improved Asian integrated MEG margins, and enhanced shale gas advantage. MTBE's year-on-year performance has seen a 48% decline. Third quarter '23 experienced exceptionally strong margins due to a combination of industry supply shortages and a healthy demand in Mexico. Throughout 2024, industry margins have reduced due to the entry of new capacity in the market. Last quarter, MTBE saw unusually high feedstock costs that have now corrected in this quarter, resulting in 8% adjusted EBITDA improvement quarter-on-quarter. In quarter 3 2024, we benefited from strong dynamics in our core markets with rising industry margins in Asia and a sustained competitive edge in the U.S. due to the shale gas advantage. Our U.S.-based portfolio, using ethane as a feedstock, provides us a cost advantage of about $250 to $300 a tonne over naphtha-based MEG production in Asia. Looking ahead, we expect some PET challenges from Asia's overcapacity and a reduced shale gas advantage due to higher natural gas prices relative to crude. In response, we're enhancing our ethylene integration through improved gas cracker reliability and maximizing PEO production to capture higher-value portfolio. In Q3 2024, we observed a decline in MEG margins, as I mentioned earlier, driven by lower crude and gasoline cracks, alongside higher feedstock costs due to rising natural gas prices. This pressure on margins has been further influenced by the new capacity which entered the market, creating a more competitive landscape. Looking ahead, we expect seasonal demand weakness in Q4 for MTBE, along with higher feedstock costs driven by winter heating demand. In response, we are diversifying our customer base, enhancing our pricing structures, and pursuing competitive feedstock sourcing -- and pursue, yes. Additionally, we're leveraging strategic licensing opportunities to optimize returns and navigate this environment. Before we close, I'm very excited to share one of our Indorama Ventures' most recent groundbreaking sustainability achievements. In collaboration with industry leaders such as Suntory, ENEOS, Mitsubishi, Iwatani and Neste, just one week ago, we announced that -- we announced the launching of the world's first commercialized PET bottle using bio-paraxylene, derived from used cooking oil. This innovation represents a significant milestone in sustainable packaging by transforming waste into high-quality materials for PET production. Through this collaborative effort, Suntory will introduce approximately 45 million bio-PET bottles in Japan for Suntory's different products starting this November. This initiative not only reduces CO2 emissions but also highlights the strength of cross-industry collaboration to address global sustainability challenges. By combining our expertise with trusted partners, we are paving the way for a more sustainable future, and we are proud to see these efforts take shape on store shelves soon. To close, the CPET segment has shown strong growth amidst evolving industry dynamics. Our proactive management and strategic actions have driven significant improvement in adjusted EBITDA, supported by asset rationalizations, cost efficiencies and favorable benchmark spreads. Thank you for your trust and partnership as we build a future focused on both robust performance and sustainable growth.

Okay. Thank you, D.K., Muthu and Kumar. And good afternoon, everyone. Indovinya has delivered a strong financial performance in the third quarter of '24 with significant improvements in key metrics. Our adjusted EBITDA reached $103 million for the quarter, reflecting a 4% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 93% increase year-on-year. This marks continued momentum following the disruptions we experienced in previous periods. Our strategy continues to focus on driving sales growth and expanding our market presence, complete with internal transformation initiatives that are creating significant value for Indovinya. This approach supports our vision for more stable and sustainable growth and positions us for long-term success. In Q3, we saw 1% quarter-on-quarter growth and a 12% year-on-year growth in total sales revenue, driven primarily by Crop Solutions. The peak season significantly boosted our volumes, while our market share gains and improved portfolio mix contributed to higher revenues. Additionally, we saw robust recovery in Coatings & Construction, which further supported our overall growth. Meanwhile, in the APAC region, we're making significant strides in improving our new trading model, which is the outcome of our make-or-buy decision that resulted in the recent shutdown of our Botany operations site. Indovinya's portfolio is primarily driven by HVA products, which make up around 80% of our volumes and delivered an EBITDA margin of about 20% in Q3 '24. In addition, our Essentials business, which accounts for the remaining 20% of volumes, is closely integrated with the production of these HVAs, creating operational synergies. The Essentials portfolio follows a commodity-like cycle and at its peak in 2022, achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $81 million. Our customer-centric approach allows us to support just-in-time deliveries, helping our clients maintain lower inventory levels and ultimately driving shared success. Recovery in the Essentials portfolio is mainly driven by margin improvements in oleo co-products, coatings and LAB. On a sector performance analysis, Home & Personal Care demand continues to be resilient, aided by new product developments and sales recovery in the Argentinian and Mercosur markets. Additional demand was witnessed on account of hurricane build during Q3 of -- in North America. On Crop Solutions, the strong growth year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter led by higher demand and better portfolio mix. And the good rains led to a strong demand in India. On Energy & Resources, consistent crude oil price and demands helped kept stable volumes, and the lubricant market is also performing well in North America, Europe and APAC. And lastly, in the Coatings & Construction in North America, the propylene glycol volumes are improving due to the de-icing season starting in Q3. And in South America, year-on-year growth came from higher market share and margin improvement. For quarter 4, it's typically softer due to seasonality, especially with lower demand from the Crop Solutions and customers reducing inventory due to holidays. Import tariffs came into effect in Brazil on the 15th of October 2024 and should positively impact our business. And lastly, we have some planned outages for the turnaround of maintenance plants in Brazil and North America. Moving to innovation. As mentioned, we're developing a strong focus on innovation and R&D. The drive for sustainable innovation is clear in our industry. And this innovation journey needs to be closely bonded to our customers, creating better solutions that help them achieve their sustainability goals. We see the potential for significant future value creation from sustainability, and we have 2 goals for 2025. Firstly, that 50% of our new products launched from '25 will be classed as sustainable. And secondly, that 15% of the overall revenue will be from sustainable products. This innovation journey needs to be closely bonded to our customers, creating better solutions that help them to achieve their sustainability goals. And therefore, we can see potential from significant future value creation from sustainability in the next few years. Bio-based products and free-from products are of particular interest, and we see customers becoming more and more attuned to natural ingredients. Cleaning products need improved efficiency. Coatings are moving to be more water-based, while maintaining high protection and durability. And Crop Solutions need to be bespoke bio building blocks for insecticides and herbicides with improved application controls of the 33 active ingredients. As we apply this wide range of effects, our core science backbone enables further penetration to newer, highly technical and specialty end markets such as food, pharma and personal care, where our product technology will be very attractive. We're building a best-in-class global innovation team to unlock these chemistries and effects and enable them with digital tools. We're expanding our innovation in marketing and product management capabilities to penetrate these more specialized markets by offering technology, product and application knowledge to our new customers. I'll hand over now to Diego.

Good afternoon. The Fibers segment reported an adjusted EBITDA of $48 million, which is an increase of 22% quarter-over-quarter and 44% year-on-year. The year-on-year growth was primarily driven by improved industry spreads in the Lifestyle segment, higher volumes in Mobility and Hygiene, and reduced fixed costs across all market segments. The higher volumes in Mobility and Hygiene reflect management focused effort on regaining market share. Quarter-on-quarter adjusted EBITDA grew 22%, supported by higher Lifestyle margins and volume, partially offset by seasonality in Mobility. Management action on fixed costs have started to show results. Fixed costs year-on-year are lower by 5% net of inflation and by 9% quarter-over-quarter. As of now, all fixed cost reductions do not include savings from our planned asset rationalization activities in this segment, which will be implemented in 2025. Lifestyle delivered an adjusted EBITDA of $15 million, a 5x increase quarter-over-quarter. This impressive growth was primarily driven by fiber industry spreads exceeding $150 per ton, a level not seen in the past 2 years. Hygiene performed well with an adjusted EBITDA of $12 million, an increase of 4% quarter-over-quarter, supported by lower raw material prices of polypropylene. Mobility adjusted EBITDA declined by 16% quarter-over-quarter to $20 million due to an 11% decrease in volumes from typical seasonal slowdowns during the summer holidays. Despite the softer Q3, year-on-year performance, excluding a $6 million insurance gain from last year, increased by 77%, highlighting underlying good momentum in replacement tires. As communicated in our Q2 results, we are seeing some tailwinds in our Lifestyle segments, driven by margin recovery of polyester fibers in China. The Chinese polyester fibers industry is highly consolidated, with the top 5 players controlling 50% of the country capacity. 54% of the players are not integrated into PX production, and they were not generating positive cash flow. Similar to what you just heard from our CPET colleagues, PX margin have recently been decreasing, and refining margin have also been on the decline. This situation makes it challenging for the integrated player to cross-subsidize their downstream businesses. China polyester staple fiber spread peaked in the first half of 2022 and thereby had been on a falling trend until the end of the first half 2024. These spreads were unsustainable for the majority of the producer, even in China. The spreads are now hovering around $180 per ton. This is still lower than our historical average but the bare minimum required for the industry to sustain. Our assets in Indonesia and India are currently running at full capacity, and we have been able to increase our domestic share. We're maintaining our price premium in key domestic markets through customer intimacy and support of antidumping initiatives. The announced footprint rationalization in Europe will reduce fixed cost and support our remaining European specialty business, whereas the more standardized products are being served from our Asian assets. Please allow me to share a case study. Our management action aimed to optimize our manufacturing footprint by improving utilization rates and reducing fixed costs. With the struggling European economy and the high cost structure, we decided already in 2023 that we will look into our option to optimize the manufacturing footprint. One of the actions, we did a deep dive into our European Lifestyle business. The outcome of this study was a plan to centralize the yarn spinning and twisting activities that are currently done at 2 entities, in Italy and in Germany, in one location, Italy. As an outcome of this centralization, we will reduce our headcount in Germany by 210 employees, leading to an annual saving of $13 million. After the final decision was taken early September, the restructuring was communicated on September 26. Finalization of this transfer is expected for mid-2025. This move will improve the profitability of our European Lifestyle business and will allow us to continue serving as a local supplier with Asian backbone in the European market. It goes without saying that we will continue and even enforce the transfer of standardized products to our Asian supply base, leaving only limited specialty offerings with attractive margins in Europe. In 2023, we started to change the Fiber organization by eliminating the 3-business unit structure and moving to a centralized, segment-led model. We're now moving to the second phase of this change by implementing our new organizational blueprint. We will increase the speed and efficiency in the decision-making process by eliminating the current entity-based structure, which is a legacy of our acquisition history, and replacing it by a standardized functional structure by region. In other words, decision related to all function are taken centrally and will be executed in a standardized way in each region. We will take out a significant amount of cost, around $22 million annually, by reducing layers and increasing span of control. At the same time, we will fully leverage our global capability center, which is already in place in India, by moving tasks from our higher labor cost areas into the global center and, therefore, benefiting from the arbitrage possibility for manpower cost and the standardization of workflow. Lastly, we are driving synergies with the corporate and CPET organization through well-defined roles and responsibility and a constant evaluation of saving potential to be achieved. It is expected that this organization change will be implemented in early 2025. This change is a part of a larger fixed cost reduction plan, which will eliminate a total of $74 million fixed cost in the Fibers segment by the end of 2025.

Thank you, Diego and Alastair. Let's see how debt has evolved over the past 9 months. So as you can see in the slide, in 9 months of '24, we generated an operating cash flow of $912 million. Out of which, $203 million was used for maintenance CapEx and $329 million for net financing costs, including perpetual interest. This resulted in a free cash flow for IVL shareholders of $380 million, which reduced the net debt from $6.84 billion to $6.46 billion, as you see in the slide. After paying the dividend to the shareholders, allocating some funds for the growth CapEx, which were basically mainly in the Recycling business as well as our Mocksville fiber expansion and [ one piece won ] in the Mexico, which will have improved earning coming in the coming year, the net debt after dividend and CapEx, as you can see, stands at $6.68 billion. This shows our commitment to generate free cash flows and reduce net debt. We made onetime deferred payment of $150 million related to 2022 Oxiteno acquisition and issued a THB 15 billion perpetual debenture, which is used for repayment of another perpetual debenture, which is due in fourth quarter. And that's why we have added back here and has been shown separately. Net debt after Oxiteno payment and perpetual stands at $6.37 billion on a constant exchange rate of December '23. So this is based on constant exchange rate of December '23. In the past 9 months, we were affected by non-exchange rate movement -- cash exchange rate movement on Thai baht-denominated debt. As you know, Thai baht appreciating by 6% in 9 months. And now again, Thai baht has depreciated as we speak, and this affected reported net debt. However, for better understanding, we have shown above after removing such exchange impact. If we look at in Thai baht translation, net debt has actually reduced from THB 248 billion in the second quarter '24 to THB 216 billion in third quarter '24. After removing cash requirements for perpetual redemption in November, it reduces to THB 231 billion. So we add back THB 15 billion, which is being paid in the fourth quarter. The noncash exchange rate movement also impacted our equity because we have investment in dollar and BRL, where Thai baht strengthened against dollar, as previously mentioned. And Thai baht strengthened against Brazilian real by 11%, we have a big investment in Brazil, as you know, and this strengthened by 11% in third quarter '24 and 16% over 9-month '24, impacting our equity by $243 million in 9 months '24. This impact is temporary and has started to reverse in the fourth quarter. Actually, all the currencies have started weakening. You see the U.S. index -- the currency index has become 105 from 100. So it's already gone back to the original exchange rate. Management is committed towards free cash flow generation with our asset rationalization program. It's a big lever to enhance the free cash flow. This free cash flow is going to expand over the next 3 quarters and continuing through 2026 as outlined during our Capital Market Day. As company performance strengthens and with the completion of the planned IPOs and divestiture, which I covered, we expect further net debt reduction in line with our strategic targets. So this shows you the debt movement. On refinancing, we have successfully completed $1.3 billion of refinancing, as you see on the list on the screen, for debt maturing from 2024 to first half '25. We now only have left repayment of $0.3 billion for this year and $0.7 billion for 2025. We have received a number of term sheets offering from both international and Thai banks, each offering up to $1.5 billion in long-term loans for Indovinya. This will help to refinance our second half '25 and '26 repayments and create more liquidity at a lower spread. We're proactively taking actions to maintain high liquidity and optimize our costs. This debt restructuring, as you know, is also in preparation of the upcoming IPO of Indovinya to put this debt on Indovinya. Following our THB 15 billion perpetual debenture issuance in June -- July, we upheld our commitment redeeming the previous THB 15 billion debenture at its 5-year first call option on 8th November '24, which we -- has been repaid. Our priority to maintain robust liquidity remains unchanged. As of third quarter '24, liquidity remains strong at $2.5 billion. Through our proactive debt management, we have reduced the current debt portion, creating greater flexibility and headroom in the liquidity position. Now looking at the balance sheet. At the end of third quarter '24, our adjusted net debt equity ratio is at 1.33x, and DSCR of 1.27x reflect proactive action and financial discipline. Adjusted net debt equity was calculated by excluding nonoperating debt, the impact of noncash exchange rate movement in debt and equity, because it is impacted on quarter end, and considering impact of cash flow for payment of perpetual debentures in November '24 to reflect the correct ratio by removing noncash accounting-related items. Of our total debt, as you can see, 47% is floating and 53% is fixed, enabling us to look at various opportunities to reduce our finance costs going forward, where interest rates have peaked in all major markets like in U.S. and Europe. We are strategically positioned to benefit from the global trend of falling benchmark interest rate. As these rates reduction takes effect, we anticipate a decline in interest cost as we move into the next years with lower utilization and also lower debt. To manage currency exposure, we continue to apply a natural ForEx hedge strategy. This approach leverages our global manufacturing footprint by aligning debt and net assets within the same currencies, effectively mitigating foreign risk across diverse regions and market environment on a long-term basis. As you know, our ESG-linked financing is 32% of the total debt, reflecting our continued commitment to responsible financing aligned with our long-term ESG objectives in both operations and capital strategy. Looking at the working capital now. In third quarter '24, our working capital days is 87 days, down from 92 days in fourth quarter '23. We remain fully committed to our strategy of optimizing working capital management and enhancing cash flow performance. We are on track to achieve our CMD targets of reducing working capital to nearly 84 days by 2026. However, our net working capital, as you saw, went up in third quarter '24 versus last quarter due to higher inventories, particularly transit, raw material inventories in CPET and Indovinya. Our CapEx strategy reflects a disciplined approach, as you can see, with around $300 million of CapEx for '24 to '26 reduction. You can see here that we have reduced our CapEx commitment by $300 million from the previous levels announced on CMD. For '24, we have reduced CapEx to $530 million, balancing growth and maintenance from $660 million. Of this, $220 million is allocated to growth initiatives, mainly focused on sustainability circularity. And as I mentioned about the fiber projects, which are completing in this year, and $310 million is directed towards essential maintenance to ensure operational reliability. This leaner CapEx plan enhances our financial flexibility, enabling us to prioritize high-value growth projects and strategic initiatives that drive long-term sustainable growth. We are seeing that, in '25, we have increase in the maintenance CapEx because of the major turnarounds. One was PO/MTBE. This is $100 million once in 5 years, and also the cracker in Lake Charles and Clear Lake glycol plant. That's why you see a spike coming into '25. We remain fully committed on de-leveraging and capital allocation with a very strict discipline. So let's now review what is the outlook. As we see the worst is behind us, we expect strong volume across all segments, reflecting resilient end product demand and solid market fundamentals that will support overall performance. For CPET, as you know, fourth quarter is normally lower seasonality. However, we expect to benefit from ongoing savings through asset rationalization, that is the fixed cost saving. Additionally, as you saw, continued favorable benchmark spreads observed in October '24 bring positive signs to further support the performance of the segment, and you saw the PET margins integrated improving. Intermediate chemicals will be marginally softer from declining MTBE spreads due to higher feedstock costs. However, as the crack margins are lower, the MEG will be better. Indovinya may see lower performance as demand tapers off due to lower crop season in fourth quarter '24. The Fibers segment is expected to benefit from management actions and improved benchmark spreads in Lifestyle, as you saw that Lifestyle polyester staple fiber margins have improved. The expansion of hygiene and mobility project in Americas position us well for sustained growth and enhanced performance in this segment going forward, so we'll see this earning from this expansion coming in '25. So if we sum up, looking ahead to 2025, what do we see? We anticipate stronger performance driven by higher volumes. You can see lower fixed costs from all the rationalizations which we have done, which is $170 million to $180 million, better sales mix and higher benchmark spreads, as you saw the improvement. Lastly, I'm pleased to update you that the execution of our IVL 2.0 strategy is progressing as planned. Our rationalization program is on course to deliver an annual EBITDA upliftment of $150 million by 2025, contributing to increased free cash flow while simultaneously reducing net debt. This progress reinforces our commitment to achieve a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of less than 3 by 2026, strengthening our ability to navigate market challenges, positioning us for future growth and creating long-term value for our stakeholders. So in the past decade, as you know, this is just to remind you of IVL 1.0 and 2.0, we achieved rapid growth by scaling up, expanding globally and building operational synergy through strategic acquisition and vertical integration. This growth, as you know, supported by low debt, low interest rate financing, has established us a leading sustainable chemical company with a robust integrated portfolio, providing cost advantages and resilience. As we rolled out in Capital Market Day, in IVL 2.0, we are shifting focus to create greater stakeholder value, drive cash flow and reduce leverage. What is the key priorities? Transitioning to organic growth fueled by free cash flow rather than debt; increasing customer value through innovative, high-value and sustainable products, as you heard from all the presenters; enhancing cost efficiencies to maintain a competitive edge, getting into the first priority cost structure; strengthening our operational model with advanced data and analytic tools to infuse agility and maximize group synergy. Now prioritizing free cash flow, earnings per share, return on capital employed, moving beyond EBITDA growth for more direct shareholder return. And the biggest change, which [ becomes ], is by committing to a prudent balance sheet strategy targeting debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 3 even in down cycle. So IVL 2.0 makes a strategic evaluation aligned with Vision 2030, ensuring our reliance and long-term success in a shifting environment while reinforcing our leadership in the chemical industry. So thank you very much for patient hearing. Now we can take your questions. Thank you very much.

Thank you, audience. If you have any question, you can raise your hand. So I can see the 2 hands which are raised. So one is from Khun Naphat from CLSA.

Thank you, D.K. and management team. I have 3 questions. Let me first start with the first question. It's on the -- I may refer to the slide on Page 4 and also Page 6. I think we mentioned about the asset rationalization that due, that USD 19 million, in the fixed cost savings. My question is the USD 19 million would be equivalent to about THB 600 million, THB 700 million, and we are having a net profit THB 1.5 billion. So the THB 700 million, is it -- assuming that we don't have the cost savings, does this mean that the net profit would come down about THB 700 million? Yes, this is my first question. It's also related to Page 6. Because in the Page 6, you show the operating rate, improving operating rate to 82% from the de-stocking, and also the cost savings of about USD 160 million to USD 170 million for the whole year 2025. And now, we are achieving $19 million in the third quarter. So if I were to assume USD 20 million in Q4, so does that mean that we achieved about USD 40 million this year, and then we are targeting about USD 160 million in '25? Yes, this is my first question.

Khun Naphat, you have 3 questions or you want us to address this?

Okay. Second question is on the -- because I remember in the last presentation, we were mentioning about divesting on core assets. And the fiber -- if I remember correctly, it's a fiber asset. And on Page 7, we were talking about the Project Luster and Project Cobra, and I think that this is related to the fiber to noncore fiber asset that we -- if I understand correctly, they are the same thing that we were planning. And also on the Slide 23 -- sorry that I have to refer to the slide because it's related to the Fibers business. We are talking about relocating assets from Germany to Italy. And is this one of the assets that we are divesting -- I mean Germany, that we are divesting? And is it also part of the cost savings that we were talking about, the USD 150 million EBITDA in '25? My third question is on the Recycling business. I'm not so familiar with the recycling. I know only that we -- on Page 12, because I know that we have about 600,000, 700,000 out of 750,000 aspiration of the recycling capacity that we want to achieve. And now we are talking about the 2 recycling plants in India, then I see the map and also the bottling capacity in each area. And now we are adding 32,000 ton recycling in each location. So I wonder how -- because we expect totaling 100,000 tons recycling capacity in India, so my question is, the 32,000 each site, meaning that we have 64,000 and out of 100,000 tons, is this correct? So meaning that we are going to have more capacity in India coming up? So relating to India also in the Tanzania -- sorry, because it's all related. I just want to make sure I understand correctly. Because in the Tanzania, you also have packaging. I questioned whether it's a packaging or is a PET capacity in Tanzania. Yes, because I know that under CPET, you have an intermediate, you have packaging, you also have a CPET. So I wonder which one is Tanzania. Yes, that's all my question. Thank you.

Thank you, Khun Naphat. So let me address some of the questions and then some questions will be taken by the fiber, Diego, and recycling, I'll ask Muthu to take it. First, you're right. $19 million is a fixed cost reduction, so multiplied by 32 is THB 600 million. Of course, we shut down the Rotterdam assets on 30th June. We shut down the Canada assets. So still that is a hangover into it. Fourth quarter, we'll have another saving. Vikash, if you can remind me, it's about $28 million, right? Yes, $28 million, $30 million in fourth quarter. And then you will see, because this becomes annualized, $112 million for fourth quarter, but we are targeting a total fixed cost reduction of $160 million to $170 million. Now let me remind you here, the major fixed cost comes from Rotterdam, which is a big high cost, then we have Portugal, then we have Canada and then Australia, where we shut down. So that's where it will get reflected in '25. As you know, people severance packages and all that are getting paid, all the fixed overheads are coming down. So this will get translated into the future running of '25. Your other questions in that was operating rate went up from 78% to 82%. Yes, this is because we have taken the substantial capacity out in third quarter '24 as Rotterdam was shut down, Canada is shut down, Indovinya is shut down, but you will see progressively this going up. Divestment, you asked about non -- there is a -- actually, this is about our Fibers business, but it is more on the wool side, which is the divestment, which is a very profit-making company. We don't see this as a core business for polyester, and that's what we are looking at it. And another, Cobra is some of our chemical business, which we are looking, which is not directly related to Indovinya. So we are working about that. That's also a profitable business. So the divestments which we are working are targeted in '25. Now I will ask -- and packaging in Tanzania, just to [indiscernible], this is a packaging preform business. No PET in Tanzania. As you saw, packaging, we are operating in many countries where we are giving solutions to our customers for packaging. You can see the growth in different markets. Well, we don't go in Europe and America because we don't want to compete with our customers. So this is purely packaging. This is the growth story for our packaging business. Now I'll ask Diego to take, on Slide 23, if you can explain about the Italy and move to -- on the Recycling business.

Before we move on, I just want to confirm, the asset divestment that we are expecting, about USD 300 million, are we expecting any gain or loss from selling these assets?

There will be a gain on these assets. Depending on the realization, we will let you know. And as I mentioned, there's another gain which will come from the sale of land of -- as I covered in my presentation, from the land values of the shut down assets in Rotterdam, in Canada and in Australia. And that can be around $120 million to $150 million. So all these gains will be accounted at the time of disposal.

Okay. So D.K., you partially answered already, but basically, this operation that we have rationalized in Germany was part of our Lifestyle business. We had 2 factories that could make the same products. And both factories were not fully utilized, so we're shutting down the German filament assets, and we're moving the capacity, we're moving the production, basically, to the Italian assets so that we fill up the Italian assets without having to add a lot of people. So that generates $13 million. This activity is part of the fixed cost reduction plan. It's not Project Luster or Cobra as D.K. has already mentioned, but this is part of a fixed cost reduction plan which will take out $74 million between '24 and '25, $20 million in '24 and the remainder in '25. In addition to that, we will have -- as we have mentioned at the CMD, we will have some asset closure, which still have to happen. They are all active. We will realize them in 2025. So that's kind of to put all the pieces together.

Yes. So on the Recycling, you're right. We have shown only 2 facilities on this chart, which are totaling 64, but as I mentioned during the -- when we were going through the recycling slide, we are looking at more facilities in addition to these 2. So combining all of that, then we expect the capacity to be 100 kt plus per annum. And the other 3 facilities that you see, Karnal, Nagpur and Haldia, they are virgin resin facilities. They are not recycling. We just wanted to show it on the map just for geographical reference. So India, we talked about this mandate, 30% rPET content, that is starting in April of 2025, but it is quickly increasing the mandate to up to 60% by 2030. So considering the growth per capita growth in India, certainly, there will be several more rPET facilities required. I hope that answers your question.

Thank you, Muthu. I think if you see Indian market, about 1.9 million tons. If you talk of 30%, we are talking about 570 kts. So recycled PET demand is very rapidly growing in India, and this joint venture is 50-50 with Varun Beverages, which is a listed entity in India. Thank you.

I can see the next is [ Pat ].

Thank you, D.K. and the team, for a wonderful presentation. My questions are pertinent to the CPET segment, so this is for D.K. and Kumar and Muthu, if they have any thoughts to share. So D.K., you mentioned in your opening remarks regarding the contract negotiations with the customers and a bit of these ocean freight volatilities, and now you have the Trump administration coming in. I'm very curious to know, because I think bulk of the contract renegotiations happen in November, December for North American clients, and they are like 1- to 3-year contracts. If you look at everything you're seeing on the ocean freight and Trump administration, what type of tailwinds you were seeing on the realizations, like what sort of a baseline increase you're seeing when you talk to the customers, and what are the put and takes? I'm presuming you have the more leverage right now as compared to the customers. I'm just trying to understand how much of an EBITDA uplift that would entail for the company, especially in the CPET segment over next couple of years in the medium term. That's my first question. And secondly, I just wanted to clarify, you mentioned about the freight rates improving for the October lows. How do they compare right now in contrast with third quarter? Because that was pretty elevated, and we have seen healthy tailwinds for the sector. So that's my second question. And PET pricing so far in the fourth quarter, is it as strong as third quarter? Or we are seeing some bit of it coming off? Those 3 questions from my end.

Yes. I think just on freight, you're right. The freight rates have started increasing. Naturally, there are a lot of markets where we have import parity, which will certainly benefit. It's not only PET but also fiber. Like in India, the products are priced, Brazil, the products are priced based on that. So I'll ask Muthu to address, on the contracts, how we are negotiating and what is the situation, yes.

Yes. Thank you for your questions. As far as the contract negotiations are concerned, we are still in the early stages of negotiation. But so far, what we have seen is the current environment, which is basically elevated freight rates. But also as we saw on the China, what you see here, the consistently improving benchmark spreads in Asia. You see that from July, August, September, integrated spread is $154, and then October, this has further increased to $160. So this, along with the elevated freight rates, they are certainly helping us to improve our contracted spreads for the coming year. But as I said, that we are still in the early phase. We have several more contracts to be negotiated. But in general, we see a positive trend influenced by these. That is on the contracts. And as far as the freight rates are concerned, your question, yes, in the peak was -- let's say if you talk about Shanghai container index, it was about $3,800, $3,900. That was the peak in July. Since then, it dropped to about $2,000 in October, mid-October, but since then, it has increased. And as we said earlier, now it is about 15% increase. So it's about $2,300 to $2,350, and we do expect further increase. So just to give you a little bit more color on that, what had happened was during July, why there was such a sudden drop, because one of the big factors was also that, if you recall, they were projected to be strikes, port strikes, in multiple U.S. ports. And also, there were chances of the Biden administration, they were talking about new duties being imposed on several products for China starting September. So all this led to, let us say, some expedited shipments before these came into effect or to avoid any impact, so that led to a large increase, but also a drop, because the demand was less quickly after that. So that dropped. Now, that is getting normalized and now the freight rates are increasing again. One more sort of dynamic that is happening, now post the elections in U.S. and the administration change, and the talk about potential new tariffs in 2025, there is a possibility that we see the same phenomenon, which is to avoid that if there is going to be increased shipments during Q4, which can once again lead to rise in freight rates. And some of the data points from the industry, you might have noticed that Maersk, when they announced the third quarter, for the fourth time, they increased their earnings guidance this year, continuous increase in their guidance. And also the total container demand growth for 2024 from the earlier projection of -- our average of about 4% to 5%, now it has been updated to 6% plus. So all these factors are pointing that there is likely to be some recovery in freight rates, which should further help our contract negotiations. And Q4, you are talking about, as we said, that the freight rates, we expect to be at elevated levels and potentially some more increase. And the spread, that China benchmark spread, we are seeing this continuous increase, and we will see how this plays out in the rest of the quarter. And as far as demand is concerned, we expect it to be stable. Of course, there will be some adjustment based on the seasonality, but other than that, we expect the demand to follow a stable pattern. Hope that answers all your questions.

Can you bring that integrated slide? I think Diego covered this, what is happening in the industry that PET -- you can see this slide shows you the PET spreads, PET spreads and paraxylene spreads. So what is exactly happening that as the paraxylene margins have collapsed, and Diego covered it in his script, you can see this is per ton of PET, the paraxylene spreads coming down because refining margins have come down, as you know. Industry is highly consolidated, both for fiber and PET. You see this picking up of the PET margin. Historically, you have seen, like in 2021, '22, of course, everything was big. So today, the value chain margin is highly compressed. And certainly, our feedstock prices have come down. This should help. As Muthu said that we have seen this maintaining of the margin, and also, you saw Diego telling the same thing. So hopefully, this helps you how the market is shaping up.

And I can see Mayank from Morgan Stanley, you have a question.

So firstly, thank you for this presentation. I just had a couple of follow-ups on the earlier question around U.S. contracts. If you look at PET spreads for '24 versus '23, we are still down by at least $15, $20 in Asia. So when you are renegotiating contracts, what are the kind of conversations you're actually happening apart from the freight rates? Because normally, those are pass-throughs. So what are the kind of contracts you're kind of seeing? And what percentage of your volumes right now are going to get renegotiated for 2025 in North America?

Muthu, you want to answer that?

Yes. Mayank, thanks for the question. We are about, let's say, roughly 2/3 of the contracts getting renegotiated. Some of them have already been completed, and some more are still in progress. Whatever contracts are being renegotiated from '24 to '25, we are seeing an improvement in spreads as compared to what we had in '24. Of course, there are different reasons like the benchmark spreads, the freight rates as well as what we have seen is the increasing level of uncertainty on overseas supplies that we also mentioned -- referred to in the earlier slides. So all these are -- with our large domestic presence and thus being able to offer a basket of solutions to our customers, and that is helping us to improve the spreads for the new contracts.

Mayank, to add further 1 million ton of PET is imported in the United States from different countries. One of the new administration's drive is that they will increase also non-China. And this may be -- I mean, this is new development, as you can see, once the tariff gets implemented. So certainly, we see that people will go back to the domestic supplier as much as possible, which improved higher freights, potential threat of duties from other countries. So it will be an interesting time to look into how this contract negotiation shapes up.

And in Mexico, Mayank, if you remember that some of the increased tariff measures have already been implemented as well. And in U.S., let's see what happens with this proposed tariffs from Trump.

Actually, Muthu, a good point. I think in Mexico, have you seen any increase in prices recently after the measures?

Yes. Yes.

It's been a complete pass-through of the 10% to 12%? Or is it like half of it? Or how much was that tariffs?

Yes, it is gradual. There are still -- it is not that the imports are totally shut off, right? So basically, it is just to ensure that whatever trade is happening, it is done in a fair manner. So we are taking that into account, the impacted origins as well as the other origins, which are still having preferred duty rates. But secondly, there is an improvement. The other factor also, in Brazil, if you remember, there, the duty went from 12.6% to 20%, and Alastair also mentioned about that, that came into effect 15th of October. And that is a full pass-through with a small lag, but otherwise, that will get fully passed through in the price. So overall, yes, any change in tariff rates do influence domestic spreads.

Got it. And I think just focusing on your business in China, where obviously it has been a bit of a challenge. Can you just talk about how the dynamics are kind of going through on the China side of the portfolio? Have things got better, got worse, or if you are seeing any improvement on utilization rates, anything around that?

So China, we have 2 major assets. Of course, we have some small assets. We don't have a big exposure. We have 0.5 million ton PET capacity. The operating rate of the Chinese assets, if I'm not wrong, is about 90%. Of course, the profitability of the Chinese PET is compressed, but we have a state-of-art tire cord production and is one of the best-performing assets. So Diego, you want to add on the Chinese tire cord assets, yes?

Yes. So tire cord assets have been sold out for us. So China has been going very strong in both replacement tires and also OEM tires, and we see now demand normalizing in Q4 in China, but this -- let's say this has been our flagship sites for the mobility segments being fully loaded. So we are able to compete there. We are cost competitive and we play there, both domestically and also export. So good dynamics, good momentum in China in mobility.

All right. And the second question was more, D.K., to you, on the balance sheet side. You talked about free cash flow generation. Can you just talk us about how much will be your repayment of debt each year '24, '25, '26 now?

Vikash?

Ex of the organic side, I'm talking about. Inorganic side, I understand, but organic side, at least if you can just talk us about that.

Yes. So if you see the remaining of the year is only $300 million. Then in '25, you have $600 million long-term loan and $100 million debentures. Of course, this will get refinanced, debentures. I talked to you about $1.5 billion which we are refinancing for Indovinya, and that funds will be utilized to pay off some of the loans of '25 and '26. We are putting this -- preparing for the IPO for Indovinya to put that debt on that balance sheet, and those funds will be utilized to pay this. So we have a very comfortable liquidity position.

Okay. And on a net debt basis, does this absolute net debt go down from the $6.8-odd billion number to what would be the target number in a couple of years' time?

I think we are talking of nearly $4.3 billion. We are talking of $1.3 billion coming from divestments and IPO to free cash flow, as you saw earlier. So we are talking of unwinding the debt by $2.5 million. And as you saw in the Capital Markets Day presentation, I don't know -- can you bring that slide up, Vikash? So that is what is the target that as we rolled out our plan at Capital Market Day, we're targeting $2.1 billion, so debt over EBITDA will be significantly lower than 3.

Got it. So about $1.2-odd billion would be organic and the remaining would be inorganic in terms of...

Correct.

And I think the last thing on the cost of debt, what would be -- if you can give us a bit of a guide for cost of debt for 2025. I know the interest rates have been volatile and half is floating, but what would be the rough guide, if you can give us, as of today?

So we have reached -- if you can go to the slide that we have reached 5% as interest cost, which is 24 basis points. As you said, we have fixed and floating, 53% and 47%. Thai baht has recently cut, and we see that Fed cutting 25 basis points. If you see that this average cost comes down by, say -- this is very difficult write-down to determine earlier, we were thinking 4 cuts, at least 1%, but overall, if 0.75% comes down, we are talking of nearly $30 million to $40 million of savings in the interest cost and also from the working capital release because of the shutdown assets. So we think the interest cost will come down. I think the peak is behind us.

Audience, if you have any question. I can see that there's one more hand raised. Yes, Sumedh. Can you please go ahead and ask a question.

This is Sumedh from JPMorgan. Just a couple of questions from my side. I believe that the PX cost as well as -- PX costs are going down as well as there is room for U.S. ethane prices to come up as well, considering the Trump administration mandate. But I want to understand better to what extent are these feed stock costs pass-through. I believe some of the contract structures as well as the industry demand-supply situation requires you to pass on some of these savings, so I just want to understand better the economics of the cost savings. That's one. And my second question is, is there any scenario you see where markets are improved to such an extent that you may not require to do the IPOs or divestments?

So thank you, Khun Sumedh. I think if I correctly understood, you were talking about the PX costs going down and the ethane coming down. I think you're right. What has been happening in the paraxylene margin that in -- when the refinery margins were high, refineries were running to put more into gasoline. As the gasoline spreads came down, more extraction of aromatics has started. And you can see a very core relationship with the refining margins and this. You can see that PX spreads have come down. So basically, our feedstock prices have come down, which is easing out the spreads in downstream, which is PET and fibers. And that's where we were showing that if you see first quarter, second quarter, third quarter, they were very compressed. This was coupled with extra capacity of PET coming in China. And you saw worst than $69 first quarter, second quarter, $65 and now gradually improving. So certainly, that is benefiting. The view on the refining is certainly because of the additional capacities coming in the world, the refining margins will remain under pressure in the short term, which just means paraxylene will remain lower as per present because the asset utilization rate in China is particularly low and outside China also. On the ethane cost, it is directly linked to the gas price. If you can show the frac margins, we see that the MEG prices is dictated by naphtha-based. So you can see -- this shows Asia integrated MEG margins. You know that all the olefin naphtha players have big challenges, whether it is polyethylene, polypropylene or MEG. And this shows that nonintegrated MEG margins has been very bad, causing significant losses for naphtha-based, which determines the last marginal cost. And the advantage of shale gas remains robust. The gas availability, of course, in winter, the gas might go up a little bit because of the demand, but outlook for the gas remains around $2.5 to $3 a million BTU. There's a lot of ethane capacity in United States, so ethane costs will remain low. And as this graph also shows you the cost curve of MEG, the lowest is ethane-based as you can see, and then you have Chinese coal-based, and then you have the gas-based LPG-based. Actually, propane has also gone up, so LPG cost has also gone up, and naphtha. So 45% of MEG capacity is driven, and this holds typically good for all the olefin business. So ethane will remain linked to the gas prices. Gas will continue to remain cheaper in the United States, and with new administration policy that we want to make more oil, this means more associated gas will come. So we have to see how this shapes up going forward. Hopefully, that answered. The last question was on IPO...

Just before we go there, my question is more around how much of these lower feed stock levels are passed through. I mean how many percentage of, say, your portfolio, sees a pass-through and how much of the portfolio where you actually benefit from this lower feed stock?

Okay. So PET 5.5 million tons, I think if you see U.S. and partly in Mexico, they are linked to paraxylene partly. So that will be, I would say, roughly a very small percentage overall will be 15% to 17% of the portfolio. Otherwise, rest all gets reflected. And as Muthu was addressing, since our Asian spreads, PET spreads moves up, what happens that an import parity goes up, so even if you have paraxylene goes pass-through, on those contracts also, you have an improving margin trend as he was explaining on the new contract. So I hope that helped you to understand. Ethane, there is nothing linked. There is no contracts linked to ethane. They're only linked contract with the NTP of ethylene, which is a negotiated price settled in the U.S. and that you saw the correct spreads going up in third quarter. So there's nothing linked with ethane, yes.

Understand. Sir, on -- sorry, on PX side, you said 15% to 17% has a pass-through, so that right? And the remaining...

Yes. Yes. This is a rough number because this is like U.S. contracts, which are linked in some of the European contracts, but rest of this all through, basically, you get whatever improved paraxylene margins or lower paraxylene prices you pass-through, while under the negotiated contracts like Europe, most of the contracts are Asia, your feedstock drives down, you get the benefit. Similarly, in Brazil, for example, is purely linked to the Asian market import parity. You also talked about there is a scenario which can emerge whether IPOs may not happen. I don't see that happening because Indovinya, as you can see, is one of the largest surfactant, non-ionic surfactant producer. We have a leading position in Americas. We have seen a lot of interest. We have companies which are the peers, and the market is improving. I'm sure there will be a vendor to go for Indovinya. Indovinya has a very historical track record of strong EBITDA margins, so we are confident this IPOs will be successful and will happen, and we will continue to remain committed on our de-leveraging strategy.

I can see we have [ Eliza ] from Fidelity Singapore.

I just have a follow-up question from Mayank's on the U.S. PET. So I understand that this year, 2/3 of contracts will be up for renegotiation, and that renegotiated rate will be better than what has been already negotiated, which is the 1/3. But then I just want to understand whether U.S. PET net income for 2025 should be lower year-on-year next year, given that it should be replacing what is in the current book, which is contracts that were signed in 2021 and 2022?

Muthu, you want to take up that?

Yes. So it will be -- it's too early to say on that. Like we said that we are still in the early stages, and some of these contracts that are not getting renegotiated which are multiyear agreements, some of them are also at higher spreads, depending on when these contracts were made. And new contracts, like we said, that overall, we see an improvement in spreads. Overall, what will be the weighted average effect? That, we will have to wait and see. It's a little too premature to comment on that. But we do see a positive trend as I explained earlier.

Yes, I think we do a positive trend. I think to see as Americas is a significant portion of our EBITDA. We see a positive trend, overall Americas including Brazil, because there is a positive impact in Mexico, as you saw. So I think we are in process of negotiations, so we'll see -- we'll guide you in the first [indiscernible] results, yes.

And Eliza, just to add, this year, there has been some updates like Mexico, the duty has changed. So in Brazil, the duty has increased. So all of that might help also. So I can see one more hand raised, from Komsun from Bank of America. Can you please ask your question, Komsun?

I have a follow-up question on PX. PX spread is now pretty compressed perhaps because of the slow demand from petroleum side. Are you still seeing -- are you expecting the PX going to be long for next year, even if there is a limited demand increase? Or you still foreseeing gasoline blending demand, which is required -- PX is going to be slow going to next year? And on the U.S. shale benefit, when did that translate into MEG margin? It doesn't seem to be very strong. Is that because of the MEG still very long, so the benefit of shale gas has been offset by MEG dynamics?

Thank you, Khun Komsun. Let's bring that slide. What is important to understand that every refinery -- most of the refineries in the world will have integrated paraxylene, and we can see a large refinery in India. When the gasoline margins were very strong, they stopped producing paraxylene. There are several units. They turned down the paraxylene, they started importing, and that's why you see a peak as the refinery margins, gasoline demand was stronger, the refining margins were very strong. If you see GRM, you have that slide, GRM, gross refining margins in Singapore, which has come down at the peak of $10.7, which is a benchmark, you're talking of $3.6. I think this is 2019 level. And 2020, let's not consider because that was a very period of disruption because of COVID. So we certainly see the refined margins under pressure. This means more paraxylene will get produced. The demand for paraxylene is dictated by PTA, which is basically polyester. In China, the polyester demand wasn't that great this year, but we think that this will come up because polyester is the cheapest fiber and the PET growth as Muthu was correcting. So we see -- it is difficult to say, but yes, paraxylene margins will remain depressed. But the present levels are very low, and there is normally a lag. By the time the paraxylene margin comes down, then people rationalize and then paraxylene bounces back. So it's a combination of paraxylene and benzene. So the aromatics are really under pressure, which benefits our downstream business because naturally, our feedstock prices are coming down. If you come to the U.S. shale gas benefit, if you go to the MEG, Komsun, actually, the MEG performance has improved as compared to last year because the U.S. MEG, if you see this slide, you're absolutely right, 2018 was the peak of the MEG margin. You see the MEG compressed, the dark blue, which is for a typical naphtha-based MEG producer. Many people have shut down the plants, particularly in Taiwan, and you see the advantage, U.S. shale gas advantage. It is actually enhanced in last year, and MEG prices have remained unstable, even Saudi Arabia. As you can see that Saudi Arabia is now going on rather mixed feed because as oil production comes down, the associated gas comes down. So as a result of this, actually, our financial results of intermediate chemicals -- can you go to the financial results of intermediate chemicals? You see an improvement on quarter-on-quarter. You can see in $31 million we lost in third quarter '23 and third quarter '24, $12 million we made. Having said that, this is a combination of both crack margins, cracker reliability and MEG, and MTBE is $59 million. Certainly, you can see that MTBE was peak in third quarter because gasoline was very strong and our feedstock prices were lower. Now you see the MTBE in the lower numbers of $59 million. So hopefully, that helps you to understand the dynamics of paraxylene and U.S. shale gas.

Yes, D.K. I just thought that the -- we already have very low ethane in the U.S., which is USD 1.35 in the third quarter. How low could it go? So going forward, improvement on intermediate, particularly on the MEG, what's going to be the driver? Is that going to be an MEG dynamic? Because shale gas can't get any lower than what we already have in the third quarter.

Yes, you're absolutely right. It will be driven more by absolute MEG prices and crude oil prices, naturally because naphtha remains strong. You have also seen naphtha being stronger over Brent. It is now $110 a barrel versus $65, $70 earlier. So MEG rationalization outside shale gas is driving the MEG prices, so you can see the MEG price is absolutely still holding at $560, $570. So if the crude oil price remains high, this advantage will remain. It will not expand significantly, but I don't see MEG prices coming down because there's already -- people are still bleeding heavily naphtha-based crackers. And people have taken action, and everybody looks at per ton of ethylene, what contribution it's making, and people allocate more to high-density polyethylene rather than MEG. So this dynamics is playing, and you can see since '22 to '24, this is marginally improving integrated margins, MEG. So shale gas advantage will remain. You're right. Third quarter was already very low. And can it be better than this? Certainly, gas prices can't drop below this, but MEG prices can move up. So it will drop into this range of what you see the integrated margins, between [ $420 to $470 ] level, I would say.

Audience, if you have any more questions, you can ask them now. I don't see any hand raised, but there's one suggestion from Sergej in the chat box that there has been a couple of savings and initiatives we've been talking about, so if we can summarize them, it will be easy for audience to understand.

So I think we talked 2 pieces of savings. Can you go to the fixed -- I think it's an important thing, maybe you might have listened to different numbers. One is rationalization of assets, okay? So we talked of 7 assets in Capital Market Day. We took major steps on -- first, we attacked all the high-cost assets. So we are talking of $160 million to $170 million fixed cost reduction, and this is majority coming from 4 large assets, which is Rotterdam, Canada, Portugal and Australia, Indovinya. Then Diego talked about, which will actually translate -- this will translate into an EBITDA increase of $140 million to $150 million. Then Diego talked about fiber rationalization, $60 million to $70 million, which are basically driven by Fiber division to rationalize assets. He talked about the removal of the layers of the management, which translates into $22 million. You are removing from high-cost manpower reduction and going to global capability centers. Just to remind you, global capability center is in India, in Kolkata, which is the much more arbitrage of the cost. Then he talked about consolidating the two. So these are on top of it, and I think with us, maybe we can circulate these 2 different types of savings.

Yes. And I think there's one more question on this, the land sale value, because that is also an income that -- so it will be coming in 2025 or in 2026, so we are working on it.

Yes. So the Australian land is the most valuable land in the housing area, so which is, I think, will come in '25 or 26, then we are talking of Canada land and then Rotterdam. Our leased land is at a very cheap lease rental. So we'll account for this as the disposal takes place.

Thank you. I don't see any more hand raised here, so there are no more questions. Thank you.

Thank you very much. Thanks for your patience. It has been a long call, 1 hour 45 minutes. So thank you very much for your time, and I appreciate it.

Thank you.