Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
September 15, 2020
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Jeremy Campbell
analystAll right, everybody. Going to keep on chugging along here today. I hope everybody is doing well. I'm having a good conference so far. Again, my name is Jeremy Campbell, I cover the Exchanges, Brokers and Asset Managers sector here at Barclays. And today, it's my absolute pleasure to welcome both ICE's CFO, Scott Hill; as well as the Ellie Mae COO, Joe Tyrrell, to the Virtual Global Financial Services Conference. Scott and Joe, thrilled to have you guys here.
Scott Hill
executiveThanks for having us, Jeremy.
Joseph Tyrrell
executiveThanks.
Jeremy Campbell
analystNow that I have both of you here, just spend some time and probably most of the session today talking about the recent transaction with Ellie Mae, and now ICE is a much larger footprint in the mortgage services landscape. So Scott, I think we've had many investors call up, maybe not fully aware of ICE's presence in the mortgage business before the Ellie deal. So I guess let's just set the table for a go-forward conversation with a bit of look back and a background on the MERS and Simplifile, and what they do and how they became part of ICE historically?
Scott Hill
executiveSure. So one of -- as we think about things from an ICE business model standpoint, what we think we've been really good at over time is owning and operating mission-critical networks, particularly those that support an asset class or an industry that's moving from a more analog world into a digital one. It's where Jeff started the company with trading 20 years ago in the energy markets. It's what we're doing in the fixed income space that will significantly enable the IDC acquisition 5 years ago. And as early as 2015, '16, we saw a similar opportunity emerging in the mortgage space. One of the things that we've learned over time is the importance really of kind of the back end settlement process. Jeff, on the investor call around Ellie, talked about the fact that we've understood the importance of settlement or clearing and kind of the data components. And so where we established our footprint back in 2016 was MERS. And so for people who are more familiar with our -- the trading part of our business, a good way to think about MERS is it's the DTCC of the mortgage space. It's where the golden record is for 80-something percent of U.S. mortgages. But when we did the deal in 2016, the technology there was a mess. And at our heart, our company is a technology company. And so what we agreed was to work with Fannie and Freddie and the big financial institutions that were the owners of the technology mess to rebuild. And so we took a majority stake in 2016, but we didn't consolidate. We had it below the line because we didn't control the entity at the time. The entities' operations itself were still being driven by the other owners, while we spent time completely rebuilding the technology. And then so not only were we able to successfully do that, but we learned a lot in the process about the type of data that's resident in MERS. And so it was a technology rebuild and over the 3 years, 2016 to '19, we learned a lot about the data that was resident on those mortgages, and the importance of the ability to see how those loans are performing subsequent to being closed. But we also understood that as we look to a world where people were doing more electronically in the mortgage space and hopefully a shift towards eNotes, that we weren't at a point at the end of the process where we could dictate that flow upstream. And so it was really difficult to say, hey, eNotes is better for the industry, as we're sitting there at the end having the mortgage filed with us versus upstream. In 2019, in addition to closing the MERS deal, we also bought Simplifile. And again, that's a business that, to some extent, is more at the closing of the settlement process. Because, effectively, what the Simplifile business had done is build plumbing into counties that represent roughly 85% of the U.S. population. And so now you can electronically file mortgage documents and documents related to the mortgage in those counties. And again, it's a means of generating more efficient flow, more of a digital process. But again, Simplifile was more at the settlement end of things, at the closing end of things. And that's where we really got our first view into the importance of the Ellie network because Simplifile and Ellie were partners. And as we thought about the Simplifile and MERS really moving the industry more towards an automated, more digital process, something that would facilitate more electronic mortgages being done, it became clear that sitting at the end of the process, we weren't going to be able to drive that, and we really needed to move to the front end. And so that's when we decided we would make the move on the Ellie deal. And we showed a chart in the Investor Day -- or in the investor call that really showed how we now go from end-to-end, all the way from the application, through to the filing and then to registering those mortgages in MERS. But it was really focused on the important closing parts of the process and then looking upstream to see where the market traded, and Ellie was clearly the network that is the most critical with the highest share in that origination process. And we just felt the combination would be extremely powerful.
Jeremy Campbell
analystYes. Great. And then just from back in my day covering the mortgage industry, and Joe, maybe this is for you, is -- I knew Ellie mostly as an origination technology provider that find out most of the small to midsized nonbank originators, while large bank or nonbank firms either ramp proprietary platforms or use some Black Knight origination technology. Is that still the labeling today?
Joseph Tyrrell
executiveKind of. I mean our #1 competitor is actually those proprietary systems that a lot of those large depositories used. But when you look at our position in the market, actually, we have customers across the entire spectrum of both size and lending channel. So our platform supports the largest retail, wholesale and correspondent leaders in the industry, including 2 of the top 3 largest correspondent lenders. We also have some of the biggest banks using not only our core lending platform in Encompass, but some of the nation's largest depositories also use our Velocify and our AIQ solutions. We do have more of the largest independent mortgage bankers in any other platform, and we also support a significant number of regional and community banks, credit unions, even mortgage brokers. I think the beauty for us, Jeremy, is we do this all on one platform. And because our platform supports these large lenders across all these channels, it also gives us a lot of different ways that we can grow the number of loans on our platform. So to give you an example, our lenders, especially because they skew larger and they skew more towards those independent mortgage bankers where lending is all they do, we've seen that they have been taking more and more share from some of the larger depositories over the last several years. So regardless of what the volume is in the industry, we get the benefit of that shift. And then historically, lenders have been using different systems for different channels. So they'll have 1 platform for retail, 1 platform for correspondent. Because our system now can support multiple channels, we're seeing lenders take more of an omnichannel approach, where they want to have all of their users on a single platform and then as volume shifts from channel to channel, they can actually shift their folks and take advantage of any changes in the market. What it's also allowed us to do is have lenders that may have thought about entering a channel. Perhaps they're on retail, but they want to go into wholesale. Now that they're on our platform, it gives them the ability to do that without them to make any additional technology investments because they can just spin up a new channel and configure it on the platform. And certainly, we're always adding new lenders, and this brings incremental loan volume to the platform. And I can tell you, even during this pandemic, where certainly normal sales cycles have gotten a little extended, we've still had some very significant wins with very large lenders, including going live with the largest correspondent lender in the country just a few months ago. So all of that and our position in the space, the spectrum of lenders that we support, also gives us a huge opportunity to monetize those loans multiple ways by cross-selling other products into that base. So I think our position in the market, as Scott mentioned, from a market leadership perspective, is really reflective of the size and scope of customers leveraging the platform.
Jeremy Campbell
analystAnd then maybe just one last -- lay the groundwork type of question here. So we talked about -- Scott with Simplifile and MERS. We talked about the origination and the clientele of Ellie Mae. But Ellie has done quite a number of things very well also. So maybe just a quick backdrop here on the Ellie Mae network and some of the things that you've done to enhance digitization and automation and documentation, things like that.
Joseph Tyrrell
executiveSure. Well, since you mentioned the network, let's start there. The Ellie Mae network is the industry's largest marketplace. So what we're doing is we're connecting virtually every provider in the mortgage supply chain. And then what we do through the Ellie Mae network is we facilitate the exchange of data between the lenders and all the service providers. We do this securely and safely, and we do it through millions of transactions each month. But our solutions, as you just mentioned, span the entire mortgage manufacturing process. And so that's from point of thought when a lender first engage that consumer, all the way through to the delivery of that asset into the secondary market. And so the way that we kind of provide solutions all throughout is, if you start-up at the top of the funnel, we have our Velocify solutions. So this is marketing automation for helping a lender create leads with automated lead management and distribution that helps lenders not only increase both capture, but also pull-through rates of those leads. And then our Consumer Connect point-of-sale solution has over 1,500 lending institutions that are leveraging it. And this, again, national banks to the largest independent mortgage bankers on our platform leveraging this consumer-facing technology. And what it does is it gives them the ability to create this touchless application process for the consumer, touchless borrower engagement and then it's where that borrower engages with that lender over the course of the next several weeks and providing documents and other materials needed to manufacture that loan. You also mentioned kind of the document recognition. So that's our AIQ solution. What this is, is it's a machine learning document recognition and automated data extraction platform. And again, support some of the largest national banks in the country as well as the industry's largest wholesale lenders. And really, what this is helping everybody do is it's achieving that automation quality data through algorithms in our proprietary platform that have been trained by millions and millions of mortgage documents. So we can recognize the document, we can extract the data and now we're using that data for automating the workflow. And one of the ways we do that is with our analyzer suites. So what we're now doing is we're taking the process, which has historically been pretty form-centric, very document-oriented, and it's kind of a serialized process where you do step A and then step B. So we're breaking that apart into essentially task-based workflow. And now our analyzers are going in and actually through artificial intelligence they're actually performing the tasks that normally are done by, in this case, underwriters. So income calculation and validation, automated appraisal underwriting, credit and asset underwriting, and it's kind of just the tip of the spear with a lot more analyzers to come. And then I mentioned how we also go all the way through to investor delivery of the asset. So our Investor Connect service delivers complete data and document payloads to most of the largest investors in the industry. And what we're doing there is we're really removing the friction in the loan purchasing and delivery process. So huge benefit to the investors purchasing those loans because we're often populating their systems with data directly, but huge benefits to the lenders because they're able to sell those loans much faster and create liquidity for their next lending. And I'm assuming we'll probably talk about data a little bit today. We have just started to scratch the surface in data. We're doing this through our Ellie Mae Insights product. It just launched. But it's the industry's first real-time peer comparison solution that allows a lender to compare themselves to an anonymized peer group on a whole realm of different lending metrics, so not just rates and terms, but pull-through, demographics and a lot of other attributes. And then lastly, to drive even further automation. Right now, we're in the process of planning to codify our AllRegs solution. And what this does is it contains underwriting guidelines for virtually every lender in the industry. So this, combined with our AIQ, our machine learning and AI solution and our Encompass automation engine, it's going to give us the ability to automate the complete processing and underwriting of the entire loan. But the special sauce here is we plan to do that literally as the application is being completed by either the consumer or the originator. So yes, it's a lot more than just the Encompass platform for sure.
Jeremy Campbell
analystGreat. And then I think like we laid the groundwork really nicely here. And I think -- so let's talk about the go-forward of the combined entity. And I think, Scott, one of the things that you had referenced earlier was that fantastic slide. It really stuck out to me in the post deal call where you visually paired up the legacy ICE mortgage business with what Ellie Mae had to offer to showcase this end-to-end solution. So maybe let's stick there for a couple of questions. I mean just the high level one, as you look at the more origination process from application to title tech to originations, the post close and everything that's involved in that, I guess where are the pain points in the industry today? And how is ICE best positioned to kind of facilitate a fruition?
Scott Hill
executiveSo I'm going to let Joe answer that. And you introduced him correctly as the COO of Ellie, but he's going to be running our entire ICE Mortgage Technology segment. And so I'll let him talk about the pain points and how we're going to address those.
Joseph Tyrrell
executiveSure. So it's a great question, Jeremy. And what's interesting, it's not as much -- when you talk about pain points, it's not as much the steps in the process, but it's how those steps actually get completed. So the best way to think about this is for a lender to extend a mortgage, it's kind of like a manufacturing process. So think about auto manufacturing, right? The auto manufacturers, they don't actually build the tires and the radios for the cars that they're manufacturing. They procure them from service providers. And then they assemble them into the car. It's the exact same thing with mortgages. So what lenders are required to do in order to make sure that they're meeting all the regulatory requirements and all the requirements of the secondary markets so that they don't have to worry about the risk of loan buyback is they're assembling these loans. So they're getting flood reports, title reports, credit, appraisal, fraud, all these verification services from all these third parties. But unlike other assembly lines, today, lenders are employing people to literally push buttons, order services, receive the documents, then they're looking at the documents and keying information in. So it's a really laborious process that's heavily reliant on people. And this is the reason why for a lender, it costs them $8,000 to $9,000 just to originate a loan. So for us, this is a perfect opportunity for full automation. And so when you look at the next phase of our growth, that's what it's all about. When you look about the TAMs that we can penetrate, the biggest one is around automation and starting to now -- the fact that we can take this data out of these documents and actually perfect the quality of the data so we can use it for automating the steps in the process, that's where we're going to really accelerate a lot of the initiatives and automation that we've been focusing on. And so it's interesting when you look at the parts. What MERS has done is they've digitized the file cabinet. And what Simplifile has done is they've digitized kind of the counties. And then really what Ellie Mae has done is we've digitized the supply chain. And so now that we have all this digital plumbing in place, the opportunity for us is to then change how all of these parties interact in sharing and exchanging that data and leveraging automation to remove all those pain points.
Scott Hill
executiveAnd one of the things, Jeremy, that I'm excited about on that chart is, if you think of about it -- so Joe has talked about how we can harness the data to automate the process and to make the process better to do the error checking, to do compliance, to do it more efficiently. But there's a lot of information in that chain, too, a lot of unstructured, useful information that's real time. As opposed to a core logic or looking at servicing, which is telling you what happened 3 or 4 months ago, Joe was -- on the call last week mentioned that data is at least 3 or 4 months old when you see it or older, we know what's happening right now. And so we were talking before we started about places where ICE and Ellie coming together are synergistic, I think beyond the data piece that Joe's talked about, which they already had in full motion, I'm excited about the opportunity for Lynn's business and her teams to come in and take a look at that unstructured -- just like we're doing in the ESG world today, just like to a large extent we're doing in the fixed income ETF world, and finding -- reading bond documents and all of that. And so I think there's an opportunity. Again, this isn't driving 8% to 10% next year. But in a world where I gave a decade's worth of guidance, another big opportunity and $4 billion of addressable market is in that data site and creating more real time, immediate information for the industry to know what are the products that are selling, what are the markets that are hot. And so I'm excited about that opportunity on the data side as we move forward as well.
Joseph Tyrrell
executiveYes. And I'll just add to that, Jeremy, that for us we've had so much interest in people coming to us for our data. So not only are lenders that are looking for how can we access the data that you have to help us make better decisions, but people well outside of the mortgage industry. I mean if you think about something as simple as prepays for mortgage-backed securities, right? And people will talk about, well, the servicers have access to that data. The reality is as a servicer knows about a prepay when they receive a request for a payoff. So that's happened 30 to 45 days after the application started to either do a purchase of that subject property or a refinance. So at Ellie Mae, we know about the potential of their prepay a month, 1.5 months before anybody else. But we don't have the ability to understand how to unlock that data and really help people consume it so that they can run their businesses. And that's what we were really excited about. Because for us, we don't look at ICE as just a technology company. They're a technology and data expertise company. So for them to be able to come in and help us understand how to harness the power of this data and unlock it for the communities that have been looking to leverage it is huge upside for us.
Jeremy Campbell
analystYes, last I checked mortgage was just a little bit of a size of the fixed income market. I'm sure Lynn's team is champing at the back here. I guess we may perhaps like a live read on prepay data and other sources of strength and weakness in the market. I guess let's just move on. On the user base, I had a question here is, is there upside to the number of users that are using the combined complex? Like are you guys going to be able to flex your muscle now that you have all 3 elements under 1 umbrella here and penetrate either new users that have access on platform? Or people that are actually like heading a deeper engagement with the platform now that you're a combined entity versus 3 stand-alone businesses historically?
Scott Hill
executiveYou take that one, Joe?
Joseph Tyrrell
executiveSure. So what's great about some of this is that when you look at the predominant user base of some -- Simplifile, for example, it's a lot of the title and closing agents as well as, obviously, they've connected in and digitized the entire county community. So those are users that are not on the Ellie Mae suite of solutions. So it's an incremental user base. But it's one that has been trying to get connected for years. And so what this does is it really, with these kind of 3 assets coming together, it puts us not just in a unique position of being able to connect all of these what seem like disparate user bases, but that are actually heavily reliant on one another. It actually makes us really the only person that can connect these seamlessly to remove a lot of this friction. And when we look at how these user bases are going to come together and collaborate, there's a huge opportunity in eClose. So this is a $1 billion TAM that we've heard from our customers at the Ellie Mae side loud and clear that they want to consume eClose from us. Because, again, remember, the vast majority of the lenders on our platform use our closing documents because it's part of their investment in Encompass. So what they've been looking to us to do is to now create an eClose of those closing documents. And so we've been on that path, and we're getting ready to introduce our first eClosing solution coming up in Q4, and we'll have more that will deliver into the first half of 2021. But what this is really going to do between Ellie Mae and Simplifile and MERS is now we can digitize and create straight-through processing for that eClosing opportunity. So when those documents are generated, we can just generate eNotes. Somebody like Simplifile, and especially MERS, MERS has been at this for 14, 15 years, really kind of being the flag bearer of moving to a digitized closing. And so if you look at our ability now in the front end to really just make that the standard, just as we've done with digitizing the initial documents for all of our lenders, this is going to provide a huge opportunity to not just connect the user base, but big upside to Simplifile in the form of collaboration in eRecording and big upside for MERS in the e-registry space.
Jeremy Campbell
analystAnd then as I think about it, right, both of you is what you have is end-to-end solution. You have a tech forward kind of mortgage part of it. You work with a lot of smaller, midsized originators, but you have, as you mentioned, Joe, earlier, a lot of proprietary stuff with the larger lenders like that are still kind of you're coming off again. Now, am I crazy to think about, you have a C-suite here at ICE that has one of the best Rolodexes in the financial services world. So is it crazy to think about that this combined entity can go upstream a little bit more in the user base? And maybe penetrate some of these areas where Ellie wasn't able to come and get it to on a standalone level?
Scott Hill
executiveYes. Look, I think that opportunity is -- I don't -- that's not a key dependency for us as we think about the 8% to 10%. But I do think that there is an opportunity for us to leverage some of the more senior relationships that we've got with some of those big financial institutions. I mean the Ellie team, to a large extent, as Joe alluded to earlier in the call, is already in there and a lot of those institutions are already on the network. And so it's not a matter of trying to sell them on getting connected. It's a matter of selling them on what additionally they can do and how it can make their businesses more efficient. And so as the Ellie team kind of continues to push up through those organizations, we believe we can help with a little pull from the top of the house given the relationships that we have with companies like Wells and Chase and some of the bigger suppliers. But again, from my standpoint, that's not a dependency. That's an additional opportunity.
Jeremy Campbell
analystAnd then let's just talk about that growth algorithm from the top line for a couple of minutes here because I know it's of keen interest to a lot of investors out there. And Scott, I know you've mentioned 8% to 10% grower here for the mortgage business, both next year, kind of no matter what refi looks like. And then for the next decade plus. And so I was hoping maybe we would spend a couple of minutes, maybe break this down into a couple of phases. So maybe like Phase 1 is let's call it near term, let's call it '21, 2022. I think, in my opinion, I think that originations on the mortgage side with 90% plus borrowers, still with a 50 basis point incentive to refi, would be a #1 contributor with a pretty large tail here. But what are you guys doing on that? And what other kind of key factors here are going to get to that 8% to 10% upside over the near term?
Scott Hill
executiveYes. So let me start in the near term, and then I'll move far more importantly to the medium term, the decade guide. So in the near term, the first thing, not to pick on the question, but the growth of 8% to 10% assumes that the refis are down significantly, more than 20% actually. So it's not 8% to 10%, and refis can go to 0. So there clearly is a volume element of this business. What I will tell you, though, and we heard this -- I think Joe may have said it as we move through due diligence, is volumes in any given quarter or year can be a wind in the sails or a bit of a headwind, but we're in an industry where the rising tide is lifting this big boat. And so we're confident that we can grow even if the volume environment is a bit softer. And again, 8% to 10% next year assumes refi has come down 20%. And by the way, we assume it'd come down another over 30% in year 2, and we still think that we're going to be able to grow the business. Not to overstate worries about the volume environment, though, the point you made is a really important one. Almost 90% of mortgages are in the money for refi. And so it's just a matter of working that capacity through the system. Millennials are buying homes for the first time in a long time, and the builder sentiment is high and the buyer sentiment is high. And so we absolutely think there are meaningful drivers of growth in volumes over the next year, 2 years, 3 years, 5 years and out. But those volumes are going to move up and down in a quarter and up and down in a year. But we're still confident we can grow for a number of reasons. The first one is, as we sit here today, Ellie in the last 2 years has moved from kind of the mid-30s to the mid-40s market share by doing all of the things that Joe described. There's still 20% to 25% of this market that are in homegrown solutions by these nonbank lenders. And so our ability to continue to grow share isn't we need to take share from a competitor. It's we need to go and demonstrate the value proposition of how we can facilitate that 20% to 25% of the market continuing to grow their mortgage processing, but doing it more efficiently. So they make more money and we make more money. And there's no better sale. And it's, again, a lot like we've been doing in the data business, which is, look, you already buy our prices, why not buy our index, and you already buy our prices and our index, why not buy our feeds? And why not allow us to make -- allow you to consolidate into a single place, become more efficient and save money doing it? That's a big opportunity. And it's not going to go from 44 to 64 in a year, it's going to go over years. And so big growth opportunity there. Joe talked about the opportunity to make the business more efficient and using data to automate those processes. As we do that, that's going to drive an increase in the number of mortgages that are able to be processed. And so into that demand environment, we're going to make processing those mortgages more efficient. And importantly, that's a statement on the number of mortgages going through regardless of how many people or seats there are in the industry. It's about the mortgage growth, not about the number of people who are working in the mortgage industry. And so that's another place that we think we can grow. And then we talked about the data opportunity, and harnessing that data and being able -- Joe talked about the demands that already exist on certain real-time data that only we have access to. We think that's a big growth driver down the road. And then the one that really pulled us in to the value of Ellie is moving the industry towards a true eClosing solution, where it starts at the application process and it moves all the way to the county filing and the MERS database in an electronic form with all of the associated documents that go along with it. And right now, in a world where Simplifile had a technology road map and MERS had a technology road map and Ellie had a technology road map, we now have an ICE Mortgage Technology road map. And we're all rolling in the exact same direction, and that's a growth opportunity, which, again, isn't going to happen next year, 2 years. It's going to be a 3, 5, 7 year process. So this is very early stage analog market going digital. And so we believe there are a lot of growth opportunity. And again, in a quarter, in a year, volumes could add 2 or 3 points of growth, subtract 2 or 3 points of growth, but it won't be the difference between we grew or we didn't grow.
Jeremy Campbell
analystGot it. And having dealt with these mortgage forecasts in the past, I'll take the over on some of the refi stuff, but that's just between us. And then maybe just one of the things here around just the pricing and now that you have a holistic solution, right? I think Ellie, historically, it was a little bit more of a SaaS-based pricing ecosystem, whereas I think Simplifile and MERS are little more transactional. Can we think -- talk about perhaps doing -- moving to a holistic enterprise solution and what the pricing dynamics there could look like, that might also kind of aim that 8% to 10% kind of growth effort on the top line?
Scott Hill
executiveSure. Joe, do you want to start?
Joseph Tyrrell
executiveSure. Yes. So when you look at our current pricing model on Encompass, as you know, Jeremy, it's -- as you mentioned, it's a SaaS model. So you've got a monthly subscription. Plus we have the upside with the transactional component on top of that. And if you look across a lot of the other products that we offer through Ellie Mae, all of them have some sort of a subscription component to it. Many of them also have that transaction upside opportunity. So I think for us, what we've always done with our customers is we've taken a value-based pricing approach. As we introduce new capabilities and extend out the features of the platform, it gives us the ability to displace other costs that they have somewhere else in the process. Largely in that manufacturing process, it's labor costs. And so we're looking to continue to extend that and figure out how do we help them save that $8,000 to $9,000 that they're spending to originate alone, how do we help them save $2,500, $2,600, $2,800 and for that instead, charge some nominal percentage of that. That again allows us to tap into that additional $4 billion part of the TAM where automation is just ripe to come in and help create efficiencies.
Scott Hill
executiveAnd Jeremy, again, not to try and draw too many analogies to what you see at ICE. But a lot of what we see as an opportunity for Ellie to provide more through the Encompass platform, and as they do that, to be able to capture some of that value and price, not dissimilar to what we've been able to do in the exchange data world. Where it's not, hey, I'm here to raise your prices 5%. It's, hey, I'm here to remind you that we've added these 15 new oil products and these 20 new emissions products or environmental products, and oh, by the way, with that additional value, I'm going to capture a little bit of it. And so as an example, subject to Joe correcting me on this, is if you look at the application tool that we have embedded in Encompass, that comes with the Encompass platform. So as opposed to paying a blend or Roostify an extra fee, you're on Encompass, you've got this. And that's the reason why you add those 2 together, and they've got roughly only 10% of the number of customers that we've got in the application tool in Encompass. And that increases the value of Encompass and the stickiness of Encompass because if you make that more efficient, you're more willing to sign up, you're more willing to then partake of the other services. And so again, they're similars in how -- it's similar thinking in terms of how Ellie's thought about pricing and the way we thought about pricing in our data business for a long time.
Jeremy Campbell
analystAnd then let's just like a flash forward here, and let's say that we'll go down 10 years down the pipe, right? And we have much more digitized mortgage ecosystem. Hopefully, the days of finding paper and faxing it back, not like anybody really has a fax machine anymore, but regardless. Hopefully, that's all gone. In this digitized mortgage future, does this mean a faster mortgage origination market? Are we going to see like higher velocity of volumes flowing through the pipes here in this future ecosystem?
Scott Hill
executiveYes. I'll start and then let Joe jump in, and it's funny. Most I've ever given a year's guide, and now I came out and gave a decade guide, and now you just asked me what about past the decade? So I do run out of some ability to prognosticate that far out. But the reality, Jeremy, is in every market we've ever been in, where you've moved from analog to digital, the velocity, the throughput in those industries has significantly accelerated. At the end of the day, we're not going to -- the automation is not going to cause people to buy more homes or do more refi. But it will make it more efficient. And ultimately, to the extent you're able to do something more efficiently, you will find people. The 90% -- there was an article that came out today or yesterday that talked about one of the challenges in the refi right now, is people are just scared of the process. It's just easier to pay the 5% and do nothing because I don't know where to go get copies of my last pay stub, or I don't remember where this document that's required is or a copy of whatever. And so to the extent we could say to people, no, no, no, it's much easier, here's one place, log on, fill out these 4 things, and if you do it wrong, you'll know right away and you can fix it. And then when you hit submit, it's done. Warren's on the call listening in, he's been working on a refi for his own here, and it took months and only recently got done. And so yes, 100% the case. And again, I don't think -- by the way, it takes a decade for this to happen. And it's one of the reasons why we think the 8% to 10% can happen over a decade is because that throughput is going to improve, the industry will become more efficient and in every market that's ever moved analog to digital, volumes have increased because of that efficiency.
Jeremy Campbell
analystGot it. And then maybe we're pushing up against time here. So I just wanted to touch on one kind of thing -- interesting thing that you guys had called out on the last call with the Ellie deal, but I think has gone a little bit ignored with the resegmentation of your business lines here. So I think, Scott, when we think about the exchange or the fixed income piece at this point, is it fair to think that the -- some of the derived data in exchange will kind of stay within the exchange bucket? Maybe the higher multiple fixed income, IDC, data stream kind of gets migrated down into the other buckets? So maybe we can get a cleaner look at what that higher value annualized recurring revenue metric that you guys keep highlighting?
Scott Hill
executiveYes. That's absolutely be the objective. The objective is to give people a lot cleaner view on the value of the business and where the growth is coming from. Because look, it's not lost on us. And I feel like over the last 5 years, we've had a meaningful discount in our stock that I've referred to as a complexity discount. And so what we're doing is exposing not just the way we think investors ought to view the world or our world, but how we're organized and how we run the business. And so with the exchanges, we've always said ineloquently that the exchange data is just exhaust off the trading. It comes off the trading and then forms the next trade, but it's intricately linked to trading activity. And so yes, we'll put that piece back together on the exchange side and be more comparable, for example, to how a CME reports their results. The fixed income and data services segment, the easiest way to think of that is that's going to be the pricing and analytics business that's been a terrific grower for us over -- since we frankly bought IDC. It's been the fastest grower in that segment. Plus a little bit on the ICE Global Network side because that network is important to the consumption of data. There are some other elements that are not really -- that 10% that's not in ASV that will also move back to the exchanges. But we do believe that fixed income and data services segment is going to be a much more comparable segment if you're looking at an S&P, a FactSet, an MSCI, those types of companies. And again, it's the business Lynn is going to be running. And then importantly, the business Joe will be running will also be very clearly displayed in the ICE Mortgage Technology segment. And we do think that this way of structuring the business, of organizing the business and now reporting the business should give our investors a much better view of the true value of the company.
Jeremy Campbell
analystGot it. Well, we are at time here. But Scott and Joe, thank you so much for being here. It was very informative.
Scott Hill
executiveThank you, Jeremy.
Joseph Tyrrell
executiveThanks.
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