Intercos S.p.A. (ICOS) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Intercos Group Full Year 2025 Financial Results Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Renato Semerari, Chief Executive Officer of Intercos Group. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you very much. Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for attending our fiscal year '25 earnings call. In a year, once more marked by severe geopolitical tensions, which have created significant uncertainties and a visible softness in global beauty consumption, Intercos has decided to focus its efforts on the recovery of the profitability loss during the last 3 years of strong top line growth. This called for an overall reduction of sales with packaging component and the focalization on the BUs centered around innovation. I'm glad to note that our efforts were successful and paid the expected dividends. However, top line was further hampered by currencies headwinds on top of the overall market softness. Let's see an overview of our results. Top line ended the year at EUR 1.047 billion, overall flat at constant rates and slightly down at current rates. To note, the value-added sales, which I remind you are net sales minus packaging expenses grew by 1.5% at constant rates, reflecting the mentioned reduction in pack sales. Gross profit conversely increased by 151 basis points, thanks to better mix and productivity gains as well as procurement efficiencies. Adjusted EBITDA grew by plus 9% to EUR 156 million, with margin at 14.9% and 143 basis points over last year. EBITDA on value-added sales reached 19.2%, marking a plus 165 basis points of gain over a year ago. Adjusted net income was also up and net debt improved this ratio on EBITDA at 0.64x EBITDA with a cash conversion rate of 47%. This in a year of high CapEx expenditure due to plants expansion plans and shares buyback program. We will propose to the assembly of shareholders a dividend distribution of EUR 19 million, in line with our dividend distribution policy. Moving to see the key components of our performance versus a year ago at top and bottom line level. I will start from the top line. So last year, we closed fiscal '24 at EUR 1.065 billion. From this level, we had a negative 2% drop due to currencies. Another 1% drop was linked to lower pack sales and this was more than offset by the value-added sales gains leading up to the EUR 1.047 billion, I mentioned earlier. On EBITDA, we started from EUR 143 million last year. We had a EUR 2.5 million negative impact from currencies and then margin improvement brought EUR 13 million more and another EUR 2 million came from higher sales at constant rates. So relooking at our key numbers, top line was at plus 0.3% at constant foreign exchange and minus 1.7% at current rates. Value-added sales were up 1.5% at constant rates and minus 0.5% at current rates. EBITDA grew by 8.8% with 14.9% margin, up 143 basis points. As said before, EBITDA margin on value-added sales at 19.2% was our best-ever results and 165 basis points gain versus year ago. Net income at 5.5% of sales was up 20 basis points versus a year ago and net debt was up by only EUR 3 million despite EUR 4 million of CapEx more than a year ago, EUR 13 million of shares bought back and EUR 19 million of dividends. We go to these results through Q4, which was difficult from a top line standpoint due to the high base of 2024 when we grew in quarter 4 by plus 15%. The peak of currency headwinds in the quarter, pack sales contraction and low reorders, reflecting the long-lasting market softness we had experienced throughout the year. Looking at top line results in more details and starting -- looking at the results by business units, Make-up closed the fiscal with a plus 6% growth at current rates despite a slightly negative Q4. Growth was well above the market trend thus allowing us to consolidate our global leadership in the category. All regions posted growth with Asia and EMEA, particularly strong. Multinationals were the key engine of growth, particularly thanks to Prestige brands. Skincare conversely marked a mid-single-digit decline after 2 years of strong growth. I remind you that the CAGR of the 3 years was a plus 13%. The unit paid a toll not only to ForEx exchange headwinds, but also to U.S. tariffs that made us suffer in U.S. In fact, we posted growth in both Asia and EMEA, but decline in U.S. was more than offsetting those gains. And this is due to the fact that we lack local manufacturing for Skincare, as you certainly know. Hair & Body registered a double-digit decline following 2 exceptional years, which had a CAGR of 30% and the results were impacted by the lower sales with packaging, but more than anything else, the far less important fragrance launches of 2025 versus 2024. Q4 was particularly difficult since last year we had registered a plus 40% growth in the quarter. In terms of sales weight, we saw a shift of 4 percentage points from Hair & Body to Make-up, which obviously helped the mix and helped the profitability of the company. Looking at the geographical trends, Asia confirmed its role of growth engine of the group posting a plus 6% despite very negative currency effects in both China and Korea. Both countries delivered high single-digit growth at constant rates after years of double-digit results. Make-up and Skincare were both growing with Make-up at a faster pace. Also, Q4 was positive at constant rates. As for America, America was overall flat at current rates, but positive at constant rates. FX impacted was particularly heavy on Q4. The region performance traced to strong Make-up results offset by Skincare, as already mentioned. EMEA overall results were instead impacted by Hair & Body decline. The growth registered by Make-up and Skincare could not completely offset the Hair & Body decline, especially in quarter 4. Looking at the results by client clusters. After years of growth led by emerging brands, 2025 saw the comeback of multinationals getting back to a bit less than 50% of our total sales. So multinationals posted a double-digit growth at constant rates or plus 9% at current rates with both Make-up and Skincare on a growing trend, although the growth was more pronounced in Make-up. All regions were up for this cluster of clients with Q4 broadly flat. Emerging brands posted a double-digit decline after several years of accelerated growth. Performance was still positive in Asia, but the cluster paid a heavy toll from the Hair & Body in EMEA. As for retailers that represent a limited weight on our total sales, we saw a comeback to a low single-digit growth, mainly thanks to European retailers. I now pass the stage to Paola, our CFO, to go deeper into the financial results.

Thank you, Renato. Good evening, everybody. Let me walk you through our fiscal year '25 results. As mentioned, in 2025, net sales reached EUR 1.047 billion. On a constant currency basis, sales were slightly up by 0.3%, while on a reported basis, they declined by 1.7%, mainly due to the significant appreciation of the euro against the U.S. dollar, the Chinese Renminbi and the Korean won. More importantly, we materially improved the quality of our revenues. The higher mix of Prestige and free-issue sales resulted in lower reported revenues, but significantly stronger profitability. Gross margin increased to 21%, up plus 151 basis points versus last year. Adjusted EBITDA reached EUR 156 million up plus 8.8% year-on-year or plus EUR 12.6 million. EBITDA margin improved to 14.9% of net sales, up plus 143 basis points. On value-added sales, EBITDA reached 19.2%, up 165 basis points, fully recovering the lower profitability reported in the past 3 years. This margin recovery was not driven by cost cutting, but by structural improvements in gross margin, better sales mix, operational efficiency and sourcing initiatives. Adjusted net income amounted to EUR 57.4 million, growing 1.3% versus the previous year. The EBITDA improvement was partially offset by higher depreciation and higher financial expenses, largely driven by the exchange rate impact, both realized and unrealized, already visible in H1 of 2025. The effective tax rate improved to below 32% versus last year. And finally, net debt stood at EUR 100.5 million, broadly in line with last year despite EUR 19 million in dividends and EUR 13.1 million in share buyback program. This thanks to a strong cash generation capability. Financial leverage further decreased to 0.64x net debt to adjusted EBITDA from 0.68 in the previous year, confirming the strength of our balance sheet. Overall, 2025 demonstrates a clear structural improvement in profitability and financial discipline, at the same time, consolidating the strong increase in sales reported over the last years. Moving to the profitability by business unit. Make-up delivered outstanding performance. Adjusted EBITDA increased from EUR 83 million to EUR 107 million, up 29%. The EBITDA margin expanded by 293 basis points to 16.3%. Growth was consistent across all quarters with second half margins reaching 18%. This reflects operational efficiencies, stronger Prestige mix and lower share of full service sales. Skincare also improved profitability. Adjusted EBITDA increased to EUR 27 million, up 7% year-on-year, with EBITDA margin reaching 16.8%. The improvement was driven by Prestige customers in EMEA and Asia. Hair & Body, as anticipated, experienced a decline. EBITDA decreased to EUR 21.9 million down EUR 13 million year-on-year, reflecting lower revenues and reduced the fixed cost absorption after an exceptionally strong 2024. Consequently, at group level, adjusted EBITDA increased to EUR 156 million, with margin expansion across Make-up and Skincare more than offsetting the Hair & Body normalization. This confirms that our core business Make-up is structurally strengthening its profitability profile. Moving now to cash flow and balance sheet. Operating cash flow reached EUR 73.5 million, up EUR 16.4 million versus last year, which represents a strong increase. The improvement was driven by higher EBITDA by EUR 12.6 million and by a very effective trade working capital management following the evolution of the sales. The above results includes a CapEx increase to nearly EUR 75 million representing now 7.2% of our sales and EUR 4 million higher CapEx versus previous year, reflecting the group's expansion projects, particularly in Asia. Cash flow before dividends and buyback was positive at EUR 29.4 million, significantly up year-on-year plus 43%. The group managed to absorb EUR 32.1 million of shareholder remuneration in the share buyback program while keeping net debt broadly stable versus the previous year at EUR 100.5 million. Leverage ratio further improved to 0.64x net debt to EBITDA, excluding IFRS 16, net debt stands at EUR 62.2 million. Cash conversion reached 47% after CapEx and approximately 95% before CapEx, confirming the strong cash generation capability of the business. I would like to also highlight the ROIC improvement to 14.3% from 13.3% last year. Overall, we combined profitability growth, strategic investments and shareholder remuneration, while maintaining a very solid financial structure in a difficult market environment. Back now to our CEO, Renato Semerari.

Thank you, Paola. So looking forward now, we entered the year with confidence about the beauty come back to its historical growth base. Our view was comforted by the good results of Q4 in China and some early signs of recovery in U.S. Also, in November, December, we registered our new record of orders intake signaling that consumption and reorders are picking up again. We hope that last weekend news won't put new clouds on the overall economy and on beauty, but we are quite confident about the year 2026. As far as Intercos is concerned, after a year focused on profitability recovery, we entered 2026, determined to get back to a more solid growth pace despite currency headwinds. Leveraging our innovation superiority. We want to keep consolidating our leadership in Make-up and get back to growth on Skincare. We expect growth to be skewed to the second part of the year, starting quarter 2, 2026. So in terms of outlook for the year, we expect a growth of about plus 5%, plus 6% despite the currency headwinds. I think that with this, we have closed our remarks and we are ready to get your questions. Thank you.

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Andrei Condrea of UBS.

[Foreign Language] Two for me, please. So obviously, on 2026 sales, you're guiding for an increase of 5% to 6% in reported terms, but in constant FX, how much do you expect that growth to be? And you've mentioned that you want Skincare to return to growth. What about the other categories? How do you see them accelerating through the year? And tied to that, you expect growth to be weighted towards the second half as well as Q2. For Q1, does that mean that it will likely be flat, maybe slightly positive? And my second question on EBITDA, I've noticed you've not guided on it. But just in terms of moving parts, you're not going to see as big of a benefit from lower full-service sales. We've got efficiencies still coming through the business. Is it fair to assume your margin will be at least flat? [Foreign Language]

Thank you, Andrei. Yes, 2026 guidance we're giving is around 5%, 6% growth. That would mean at constant rates will be in the range of 7% -- so it's about 1 point something to translate in constant rates. Obviously, we'll need to see because there's moving parts. But when we look at our forecast and looking at the bank forecast, this should be the gap between current and constant rates. In terms of growth, I told that we want to come back to growth in Skincare. But I also said that we want to consolidate our leadership in Make-up. So we want to have growth also in Make-up, and we want to have it above the market, which will likely be in the region of plus 4% if things go as we expect. We believe Hair & Body will be more or less in line with this year, maybe some slight improvements, but it won't be the major driver of growth also for 2026. We expect Q1 to be certainly softer than the other quarters. We had the peak of order intake, which marked a bit of change of direction in terms of reorders. Something I didn't mention during my remarks is the fact that in 2025, our sales of new projects was positive. We suffered more in terms of reorders. So the fact that we peaked in terms of order intake at the very end of the fiscal '25 means that we will have an impact starting Q2 of 2026. As you said, and that's the last point, I think you touched upon in terms of marginality for 2026, yes, we expect it to be slightly improving, but it's not certainly going to be anything like this year, which, to be honest, we did better than we had expected at the beginning. So we think that we will consolidate our marginality of this year and get back to growth in top line. I hope I've answered all your questions.

The next question is from Aron Adamski of Goldman Sachs.

Renato, Paola, Andrea. I have 2. First, on inventories. What is your assessment of the current inventory levels at the customer level? And do you expect to see any destocking through the year? And if that is the case, which categories could be more impacted by that? My second question is on your balance sheet, which gives you a decent amount of capital allocation and flexibility. Could you update us on your current M&A priorities by geography and maybe category? And if you could, what is the current M&A landscape out there right now? And maybe just a third last small question, what level of finance costs and tax rate do you forecast for 2026?

Thank you very much, Aron. Inventory of our customers. Well, that is -- as you well know, it's a moving target in the sense that if consumption goes up, then they will need to go up as well in their inventory because everybody measures it in terms of weeks on end. We don't think there is a phenomenon of high stocks at the moment. We're coming out of I would say, at least 18 months of softer than usual market. So I think that everybody has adjusted its inventory to the current situation. So I'm rather expecting help from that element in the second half of the year. If consumption, as I expect, comes up in the coming months, then they should adjust upwards their inventory policy. So I don't expect negatives from that standpoint, I rather expect some good news in the second half of the year. Second question is related to our capability, possibility to do M&A, given our solid financial situation. Well, I've said it more than once, our #1 objective in terms of M&A is Skincare in U.S. and even more Skincare with an OTC, so SPF focus. We suffered this year in U.S. in Skincare. Otherwise, we would have been positive also in Skincare in 2025. Because not having a manufacturing site for Skincare in the U.S., the tariff game made us be not competitive or not competitive enough to serve U.S. customers out of Europe or Asia. So that remains our #1 objective. We are proactively scouting, see if -- we have a list of -- a very precise list actually of targets, we would like to study and possibly acquire. Unfortunately, for the moment, it doesn't look there are many sellers, to be honest, because most of those who were bought by private equity are willing to wait a bit longer to get the results that we're expecting with their exit. Everybody is paying a little bit the softness of the market. So the results are not up to what the expectations were. And therefore, they are holding their shares for a bit longer. I hope again that in the second semester of the year, there will be new openings, and we will be certainly very active on that front. For the tax rate, I will past to -- I don't like paying taxes in general, but I know that we have to. So I pass it to Paola and Andrea.

As we said, we closed the year 2025 slightly below 32% at 31.9%. So the plan for next is to stay definitely below that. So most likely further improvement. So I would say around 31%, something like this.

I hope we've answered your questions, Aron.

Yes. That's very clear. And can I just ask a very quick follow-up on guidance. On the first question, can you give us a sense of what sort of beauty market growth rate underpins your sales forecast? Because it sounds to be a little bit above what we are hearing compared to what the current beauty market run rate is right now. So I was just trying to bridge some of that very strong growth versus where we are seeing beauty markets right now.

And you're right, Aron. The -- we are willing to grow faster than the market. The market will likely be around 4%. We want to grow a bit higher than the market and especially on the innovation-focused categories, we want to be ahead of market. So that's why our guidance is higher than what you have in terms of outlook for the market.

The next question is from Tom Randall of Jefferies.

I've just got one, if that's okay, and it's on the Make-up kind of recovery that we're seeing. So you mentioned it's Make-up outperforming within your portfolio. Are we seeing kind of a step-up in innovation and the cadence of innovation and launches from your clients? And is that skewing towards Prestige kind of innovation briefs?

Tom, thanks for your question. Well, you're right. I mean -- and it's very typical whenever you have the market being softer, the brands need to rely on innovation to gain market share and sustain top line. Let's always remember this is a market where brands enjoy, I would say, a healthy over 70% gross margin. So pushing top line is, by far, the #1 priority for brands. So whenever the market is lower, actually, the more the market is soft, the more brands look for innovation to sustain sales. And this is true across the board. It's valid for Mass but it's -- and for Prestige. For what Intercos is concerned, Prestige has been the hero for us in 2025. We expect and we want it to be the case also for 2026. This is our nature. We tend to sell innovative products that are first and foremost, appealing to Prestige brands, while usually Mass brands tend to rely on what has been successful in Prestige before launching and going ahead. So in Make-up, we have always been slightly skewed to prestige. And this year, it's not a let's say, an exception to this. To the contrary, this year, we grew much better in Prestige than in Mass. Did I answer your question, Tom?

That's very helpful.

[Operator Instructions] Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time.

Thank you very much. Thank you.

Thank you. Bye.

Bye-bye.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephones. Thank you.