Investec Group (IYYA.F) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Investec Pre-Close Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this event is being recorded. I will now hand you over to Mr. Fani Titi. Please go ahead sir.

Thank you, Judith, and good morning, all. Thank you for joining us for our pre-close trading update. This update reflects the financial performance for the 5 months ended 31 August 2025, and the expected results for the 6 months to 30 September 2025. I'm joined this morning by Nishlan Samujh, our Group Finance Director; Ruth Leas, the Chief Executive of our U.K. business; and Cumesh Moodliar, the Chief Executive of our South African business. The group's results for the first half of the financial year is expected to be in line with the prior period. Our solid performance and strong capital generation has enabled us to continue supporting our clients, accelerate investment in identified growth initiatives and navigate the uncertain environment. The group continued to make progress on our strategic objectives in a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. We are on track with our strategy to build scale, leverage existing client franchises and execute plans to enhance our proposition. As part of ongoing capital management, the group commenced the share buyback program announced in May this year, repurchasing approximately ZAR 1.1 billion or circa GBP 46 million to date. Turning to performance for the 5 months ended 31 August 2025. Revenue was supported by increased client activity levels, higher average advances as well as net inflows in our Wealth business. This was counterbalanced by the negative impact of lower average interest rates and reduced earnings from the group investment portfolio. Fixed operating expenditure reflected continued and accelerated investment in people and technology for strategic growth as well as inflationary pressures. Looking at the underlying drivers for our core client franchises, net core loans from our banking businesses increased by 4.7% annualized to GBP 33 billion, driven by growth across the corporate lending books as well as private client lending in both geographies. Customer deposits decreased by 1.9% annualized to GBP 40.8 billion. The decrease is primarily driven by the continuation of our strategy to optimize our liability mix in South Africa, where non-wholesale deposit growth was 8.5% annualized, while wholesale deposits declined by 12.8% annualized. Funds under management in our Southern African Wealth & Investment business increased by 7.8% to GBP 25.2 billion. We saw strong inflows in discretionary funds, which were partly offset by outflows in nondiscretionary funds. For the 6 months ending 30 September 2025, we expect to report the following: adjusted earnings per share to be between 2% behind to circa 5% ahead of the prior period. Cost-to-income ratio to be between 52% and 54%. Pre-provision adjusted operating profit to be circa 6% behind to flat relative to the prior period. Credit loss ratio to be within the through-the-cycle range of 25 to 45 basis points. Overall credit quality remains strong. Group ROE to be between 13% and 14% within the group's medium-term target range of 13% to 17%. Group return on tangible equity to be between 15% and 16%, within the 14% to 18% medium-term range. The group has robust capital and liquidity levels to manage the impact of external challenges and deliver on a clear and executable strategy to enhance long-term shareholder value. I will now turn the call over to questions.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Baron Nkomo of JPMorgan.

Two questions. In the U.K. credit losses, so U.K. business is expected to report a credit loss ratio at the upper end of the guided range. Just wondering if you can give us some color on what factors are driving this and what steps are being taken to manage credit risk in the U.K. And then lastly, can you give more color on the reduced profit contribution from group investments in SA?

Thank you, Baron. As indicated, we do expect the overall credit loss ratio for the group to be inside the 25 to 45 bps through-the-cycle range. So we're quite comfortable with where the credit experience is. As indicated, the SA credit loss ratio continues to be fairly moderate given the nature of the business there. And given where we are in the cycle in the U.K., as we did in May, we had indicated that we will be at the higher end of that range for our business, which is a corporate mid-market business on the private banking side. As you know that credit loss ratio is quite low over a long period of time. But I'm going to ask to Ruth Leas to give us a bit of color on what we're seeing on the ground. And then I'll ask Nishlan to just cover the group investment question.

In line with what we guided at the full year, the expected credit loss ratio should be around the upper end, as you've mentioned. There really isn't anything new to report here. This continues to be idiosyncratic events unrelated to any trends. Interest rates are still relatively high. And as they moderate further and come down further, we expect the credit loss ratio to moderate also. So nothing really new to report. And the overall credit quality of the book remains very strong.

And coming to your second question, last year, we did experience higher valuations, particularly from some of the listed stock within the group investment portfolio, and that hasn't repeated in this period at those levels. So all in all, the reduction is as a result of the fact that markets haven't climbed as much as they did in the prior period for those particular stocks.

Our next question comes from Alex Bowers of Berenberg.

I just had a question on sort of your H1 ROE versus, I guess, the kind of guidance you've given for the full year. So it looks like in South Africa kind of 18.5% is pretty much what you said it would be for the full year. On the U.K. side, it's slightly lower. Could you just unpack that for us a little bit and kind of give a view into expectation into H2 as to what kind of increased profitability may come from?

Alex, thanks for your question. As indicated, we have given you a sense of where we think H1 will come out generally in line with the performance of the prior year. We continue to see the underlying drivers move in the right direction. I think we will try to give you a lot more color when we report in November. And at that time, we will give you a better sense and a feel for how we think the whole year will turn out. But we still see a performance that is in line with our expectations, and we will give you more color in November, and give you specific guidance for the rest of the year.

Our next question comes from Stephan Potgieter of UBS.

Just a follow-up on the first half performance versus the full year in terms of -- you mentioned you'll provide more guidance, but it looks like a slightly weak start to the year in terms of your ROE guidance for the full year to achieve that. If you could comment on that.

Nishlan, do you want a take on that?

Yes, Stephan, I think at the end of the day, it's a fairly short period into this particular financial year, and there's still a fair amount of time to go through. I think we are quite pleased with the overall momentum of the business, particularly in terms of our asset gathering processes, AUM growth. And at the end of the day, we had indicated that as we focus on our strategic initiatives, we will operate within a cost-to-income range. And in this period, I think costs are slightly higher than revenue. And in November, we should be able to give you much more firmer guidance for the full year itself. But I'll reiterate that very much in terms of expectation. In the short term, as we've been flagging, the impact of lower interest rates is in the system. But at the end of the day, I think -- again, we're quite pleased with the momentum that we've seen in growth in fees across the businesses and, all things equal, that momentum should continue.

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Chris Steward of Ninety One.

Just 2 quick questions from me. One is, it does seem as though there has been some margin pressure within the U.K. Specialist Bank in particular. Maybe you can just unpack the outlook for margins given, I guess, that rate cuts perhaps haven't been coming through as fast as anticipated in the U.K. And then the financial performance of the SA Wealth & Investment business has kind of implicitly been lumped together with the group investments business in the sort of guidance for SA in total. Maybe you can just unpack a little bit, provide a little bit of guidance or shine a little bit of light on the financial performance of the SA Wealth & Investment business, please.

Okay. Thank you. Ruth, do you want to talk to our U.K. margin experience and give a bit more color?

Sure. Chris, thanks for the question. When we spoke around the full year, we spoke about the impact of reducing interest rates. And as one usually expects as rates reduce, net interest income can also reduce. What we have seen to counterbalance that, though, is very encouraging signs of activity in terms of growth in client acquisition and increased loan growth through the period. Our fees have actually come through very strongly over this period and is also serving to counterbalance movements in NII. So we do see that the reductions in interest rates that have occurred so far are starting to feed through to higher levels of activity, but certainly not at full flow, and we look forward to further interest rate cuts to boost that even further. So overall, a neutral picture with seeing both sides of net interest income and increasing fee income, but certainly very promising signs of deal flow in more recent months.

Chris, I think -- thanks for the point on the fact that when we unpacked the first paragraphs on South Africa, I think, we haven't really specified well. But on to the second page, you note that we indicate that annuity fees have had good growth in the Wealth business. And you see that with the strong growth in particularly discretionary AUM with net inflows of ZAR 9.3 billion in the current period. So we're quite pleased with the performance of the Wealth business, and it remains robust.

Ladies and gentlemen, with no further questions in the question queue, I will now hand back for closing remarks.

Thank you, Judith. Again, ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your time this morning. I'm sure you will have further questions that you may want to pose to us. So please don't hesitate to be in touch with our team. Again, thank you.

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's event. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.