JELD-WEN Holding, Inc. (JELD) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
May 17, 2023
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Michael Rehaut
analystGood morning. Thanks for joining us today on Day 2 of our 16th Annual JPMorgan Homebuilding and Building Products Conference. My name is Mike Rehaut. I'm the senior analyst covering the homebuilding and building product names for JPMorgan in the Equity Research Group. We're excited to kick off another full day of presentations and fireside chats. We have with us to start off the day, JELD-WEN CEO, Bill Christensen; and CFO, Julie Albrecht. As part of a fireside chat, I'll be moderating a set of questions, but we also have the capacity to forward questions from the audience. And if you'd like to do so, you can hit the ask a question button on your conference website, digital dashboard, and I'll be happy to pass those questions along. First off, Bill and Julie, welcome. Thanks for joining us today.
William Christensen
executiveThanks, Mike. Pleasure to be here.
Julie Albrecht
executiveThanks, Michael. Good morning.
William Christensen
executiveGood morning.
Michael Rehaut
analystSo we'll kick it off just with -- I think it's a unique question I have for you because I think you're in a unique position with a brand-new management team, executive suite in the last year. Bill, you joined in December as -- well, you joined in April to head up Europe and then took on the CEO role in December of this past year. Julie, you joined in July of '22. And so each of you have had several months, almost a year now for you, Julie, to sit in your seat. Love to get your perspective on the ongoing opportunities as well as the challenges at JELD-WEN in terms of where are the areas of necessary change that perhaps are you see kind of a longer time line or more challenging areas to implement versus some of the quick wins, I think, that you've already been able to put in motion?
William Christensen
executiveYes. So Mike, it was a great opportunity for me to kind of step into the role as CEO having almost a year under my belt running the European operations. So I was able to get a pretty good feel for culture, strategy, how do we feel we can win and what are kind of some of the key things we need to do. A couple of the observations there, which kind of roll into what we're seeing is that the aspirations that we had were mismatched with the foundation that we've seen. So there's a lot of work that Julie and I are doing to really set up a transformation program around 3 levers: people, performance and strategy. So obviously, we need the right people to deliver the strong performance, and that will build the right foundation for the strategy. There's a lot of low-hanging fruit, and we're in the process of sequencing and focusing the organization on delivering on some of those projects that are already in flight. We've communicated. We see about [ $100 million ] of cost save that we're working through. In the medium term, we're really looking to do a lot more around operating efficiencies, commercial excellence work and some network footprint optimization, which we really see as an opportunity. And on the people side, which is obviously a key factor, we're really focusing on trust and transparency and pushing accountability down into the organization, creating more visibility but holding people accountable for creating plans and delivering those plans. So happy to talk through some of that today as we discussed, but we're seeing a lot more granularity and a lot more ownership at lower levels, and that's starting to unlock some of the value and creating a foundation that can deliver on the aspiration. So we're starting in the short term as opposed to talking about very big strategy moves. So I'd say that's where we are. Julie, maybe you have some additional observations .
Julie Albrecht
executiveYes. I'll just add a few here. First of all, I'll just echo what Bill said and add, I mean, this is a really excellent business. And so JELD-WEN has been around for many, many years. We have a great portfolio of products and the teams are very, very motivated. And so to Bill's point, engaging -- increasing engagement and accountability and empowerment, we think, is really foundational to unlocking more value, really literally top to bottom, all around the globe for our footprint. So I'm really excited, quite frankly. I think Bill is off to a great start. In his role, our leadership team is gelling extremely well. And I'd say we've got a lot of work to do, but we're really excited. And we think that, again, the products are excellent. The team wants to win. And so I think for Bill and myself, the leadership team and obviously, with the support of the Board, we just need to set this group up for success and really lead accordingly.
Michael Rehaut
analystGreat. Great. So maybe just jumping into some of the near-term areas in terms of your outlook for the upcoming year. On the sales outlook for '23, you slightly raised your sales outlook ex Australasia by about $50 million due to the first quarter's volume upside. You effectively kept the rest of the year intact. Of note, however, you did lower your North American repair remodel outlook to down mid- to high single digits from previously down mid-single digits. So just wanted to revisit that at kind of what drove that reduction? How do you see the second half playing out given current retail POS trends?
William Christensen
executiveSo obviously, April is complete. So we have visibility, and it's progressed as expected. So that gives us some confidence that our expectations, at least going into Q2 are still in line with what we're seeing in the market. We would typically expect in April, a channel reload on the retail side to get ready for kind of the summer build in R&R. We didn't see that. We planned low, and we hit the expectation. So there was, actually, in our view, a slight destocking in the retail channel and as the big retailers kind of get ready for a pretty uncertain buying season in the summer. So we see some hesitation and that supports our hypothesis that it's going to be down high single digit as the year rolls forward. So we remain pretty cautious because, obviously, retail is a large component of our business. And I would say, I know Home Depot reported recently their expectations are right in line with where we see things developing. And we're remaining prudent as the year progresses. But as we said, April was in line with our expectations.
Michael Rehaut
analystOkay. Great. No, that's helpful. Also, we'll hit on Europe a little bit. The European sales outlook for 2023. You also reiterated down high single digits with new res declining anywhere from 15% to 30% by country, commercial being flat. Can you remind us of the mix between -- in terms of your end market exposure in Europe, how it breaks down between those end markets? And also, what are the key drivers you think at this point in the year in terms of upside versus downside drivers relative to your outlook?
William Christensen
executiveYes. So we have a great portfolio of strong brands and strong markets across Europe. As we know, Europe has some pretty significant macro headwinds. There's a war going on. There's high inflation that's really sticky. There's interest rates that are still increasing. Our business in Europe is split roughly 60% on the residential side and 40% commercial. Commercial for us still remains strong because we're building out projects that were landed 18 months ago. We are seeing weakness on the commercial side going forward as the number of projects coming to market are fewer. And obviously, as that happens, there's more people bidding on fewer projects, but still building out the current commercial pipeline is as expected. So that's clearly supporting us as we look forward in the year. Residential is different. There are some real challenges on the residential side. We're seeing markets down, low single digit kind of in Central Europe and some of the pockets, I'd say that are more stable up to the Nordic regions, which some of the markets are down 50%. It's dramatic. Starts are really weak. There's a high level of consumer uncertainty. Interest rates are increasing. And there's a few things that could change that in Europe. Obviously, we need a resolution to the war. I think that's the first issue. And once that is sorted out, there's more planning certainty that will create 2 things that I would argue, give some relief on the energy side because people can start planning again without shock scenarios in the model. Second would be there's going to be a massive sucking in effect for the rebuild that's required in Ukraine. That will be a massive rebuilding effort, and everyone in Europe is going to be participating in getting that country back up to speed, which is going to take years and a lot of building products. So there's going to be some pretty significant demand impact items once things get settled out. But right now, we're still in a very uncertain environment, and it's very volatile. Hence, our expectations that we're staying also very cautious for the year without a clear view on when some of these larger things get resolved.
Michael Rehaut
analystRight. No, now it makes sense. And obviously, we all pray for a resolution to the war over there.
William Christensen
executiveYes.
Michael Rehaut
analystWhy don't we switch a moment to some of the big initiatives that you're taking on and specifically the cost takeout programs? I was hoping to get kind of just the overall overview of the actions beginning in the back half of last year through this year, what are the components of the savings? Where are we in the process? And what's still ahead for the company?
William Christensen
executiveSo we've called out roughly $100 million, and we said it's 50-50. So there's a 50% roll forward for initiatives that were started last year. And obviously, then there's additional things that we're doing this year to improve our competitive position in the markets that we serve. In general, before I go into the details, we're setting up transformation teams. We have set up transformation offices in both Europe and North America. And we're doing a much better job of screening, prioritizing and creating an exception-based reporting model to really understand in a very granular way where the value streams are and how we're progressing according to plan, but also really to understand bottom-up, how solid is the package of items that we have when we look towards forecasting for future periods. So we've done a lot of work in a number of different areas. Some are very short term in nature like SG&A. Others are midterm in nature like footprint and plant closures. We've taken action on a number of sites in Europe last year and in North America. This year, we've announced the closure of our Atlanta facility, which is going to be completed at the end of Q2, early Q3. That's an $11 million full year run rate. There are some other areas that we're really just managing the business more effectively. Managed transportation is 1 area where we're helping our organization look at cost of logistics and supply chain in a holistic fashion as opposed to many individual sites doing their best to buy. We're doing that in a more centralized fashion. And as a result, there's scale effects, there's better visibility on how we balance loads and transportation costs, in general, we expect that should deliver $15 million on a full year run rate as we go forward. So we're filling the buckets constantly. And the transformation teams that we have in place in both North America and Europe are doing a great job of identifying obviously, additional cost saves and things that we can really add into the bucket and then build a bigger bank for this year, but also have some of that then roll forward into '24.
Michael Rehaut
analystSo let me just drill down a little bit and make sure I'm fully appreciating all the details because it's -- I would actually even argue it's unusual that rolling out a number, and at the same time, your kind of -- if I understand it right, still in the process of identifying -- I don't want to say parts of the $100 million because I presume that all of those parts are identified, but maybe additional parts as well, [indiscernible] further push you into '24. So when you talk about the $100 million, $50 million is carryover from actions taken in the back half of '22. And then another $50 million are from actions taken in '23 as well. And I would assume if you're talking about $50 million of actions that you're realizing benefits from in '23, what would then be the roll forward or the carryover from the '23 actions into '24 aside from just out of the $100 million program, not additional actions taken.
William Christensen
executiveSo if we just talk about the roll forward, you're probably looking at $20 million, $25 million that's going to roll forward. But we are continuing to fill our portfolio, obviously. And I think our signals have been and continue to be, there's additional opportunity, just depending on how markets develop and the segments that we want to serve. So we're looking at a number of different areas to improve the cost position that we have. So that $25 million, obviously, will get bigger as we look forward into '24 based on the exit run rate that we have from '23 with the additional project streams that we load in to our transformation offices.
Michael Rehaut
analystRight. Right. And how would we break out -- you kind of mentioned 3 big areas, and I don't know if there are other areas as well, but you kind of highlighted when we think about the $100 million SG&A footprint and plant closures or consolidations and logistics, I don't know if there -- those are the 3 buckets or if there are others. But how should we think about how that $100 million breaks down between those 3 areas?
William Christensen
executiveYes, go ahead, Julie, if you want to. And then I can chip in at the end because there was additional areas, Mike, that I think we just need to highlight as well, but we'll talk through the splits and then we can come back on some of the other areas where we think there's also additional opportunity.
Julie Albrecht
executiveYes, definitely. I guess, Mike, if I'd say the 3 buckets, call it SG&A, which obviously are things like headcount reductions, but other cost efficiencies, where we've optimized through various actions kind of lower SG&A expenses, so that's 1 bucket. Obviously, you mentioned plant closures, which really mostly impacts, let's say, cost of goods sold but also some over SG&A tech things as well. And then I'll call it just broadly with the managed transportation indirect stand, call that just other cost of goods sold improvements, right? So let's just call those the 3 buckets. Roughly 1/3, 1/3, 1/3. I mean that's not precise, but that gives you an idea that the initiatives are spread among those 3 buckets. And I'd say we view probably over time, the biggest opportunity to be in cost of goods sold. And so while we'll always focus on how can we make our overhead structure from an admin SG&A perspective, more efficient, so that is absolutely ongoing. We do feel like probably the larger opportunities continue to be out of that cost of goods sold category, the build. Whatever you want to [indiscernible]
William Christensen
executiveAbsolutely. What we have probably not been diligent enough in the past on is commercial excellence, which is really understanding how effective is our sales force. And what's the cost of that sales force and how does that benchmark against other players in the market? And second, how we look at pricing and the details around pricing in the various markets that we serve, the various segments that we serve. So we're doing more work to better understand those levers to really work, not only on the COGS side, but also deliver, I'd say, a cleaner top line and a higher quality of sales. So I would probably summarize it as we're more focused on the bottom line than the top line. And I think this is a pretty significant swing to prior leadership teams because there's so much opportunity. We just need to make sure that the quality of sales is appropriate, but also the cost structure to serve meets our expectations and we'll deliver the right return on the capital that we're deploying with the assets.
Michael Rehaut
analystRight. Right. That makes sense. Well, maybe I'm going to switch up -- my next question was on North American margins. But before -- then after that, I had North American windows versus doors. And I think I'm going to ask that second question first. It probably plays more into the answer of the margin, broader, bigger picture margin question. So I was hoping to get kind of an update on your North American segment in terms of the exposure to doors versus windows. I mean in prior companies that I've followed and across the industry, I've seen window companies typically, they're much more difficult companies in terms of lower margins, much higher degree of industry fragmentation, level of competition. And so I'm curious to understand JELD-WEN's business a little bit through this lens. And trying to get an understanding of within North America, what's the split between doors and windows? And what are the competitive landscapes between those 2 segments in terms of top line growth and margin profiles for each of those product categories?
William Christensen
executiveSo just from a high level, Mike, we're probably 2/3 stores and 1/3 windows, just to kind of size. We don't share profit margin details on specific segments. What we are doing -- coming back to what I had said earlier, is we're pushing down the responsibility to really shine the spotlight in on different segments. So [ John Kraus ] and his team in North America are working now on the windows area or the doors area or the distribution area to really understand where are we, where do we want to play and how are we going to win? So as we get into some of these different areas, the drivers are very similar. So it's residential new construction, traditional build channel, R&R on both sides. I would agree that just in general, I would say windows is more fragmented than doors also in Europe. So clearly, there's an opportunity that we've seen rolling up some door assets around the world and have done it quite well with a very strong portfolio of brands. Windows is a little further behind. We don't serve the windows segment in Europe, however, we do in North America. And for us, it's all about quality of growth and investing in the assets that we feel have a long-term sustainable competitive advantage in the market. And clearly, we have a lot of those, but we also have other areas we're starting to identify and say how can we make this more competitive? And what are some of the things that we need to do coming back to kind of the cost measures that we're taking? So we're still in the process of evaluating the quality of growth. But as I said, our view clearly is on bottom line, not top line because we need to improve the margin profile in general within our organization.
Michael Rehaut
analystRight. Right. That's helpful. I'm actually pulling up most recent note here to make sure I'm getting -- I'm going to get all the numbers right for my next question which I have had this in front of me. But okay, so in terms of North American margins, over the last several years, your EBITDA margins for North America ranged between 10% and 13%. And comparing it to your closest public peer, Masonite, their North American EBITDA margins, as you probably know, have been between 19% and 21% since 2020. So -- and obviously, this is your front and center kind of area and goals with the cost takeout program. And as you just mentioned, a focus on bottom line versus top line. I'm -- we'd love to try and get an understanding of how that difference breaks down. And in other words, to the extent that I'm on the right path or kind of thinking about windows versus doors correctly, how much of the difference is structural in terms of windows historically being a lower margin business? And to the extent that you're identifying these different areas, not just the $100 million cost takeout, but other areas as you've started to mention as well, where can we see or what's your aspiration of getting the JELD's North American EBITDA margins over the next 3 or 4 years? So kind of a combination question, what might be structural in terms of that gap, again, perhaps it's windows, perhaps it's other things? And where might you be able to close that gap?
William Christensen
executiveSo let me start at the 40,000-foot level. One of the things that we need to do as an organization is focus, and we believe that we are playing in too many areas and not doing it as effectively as we should. And as a result, we've underinvested in many assets over the last number of years. So our view is very clear. We need to do more with less. And one of the first steps in that process was divesting our Australasia business, which we signed an agreement with Platinum Equity, and we expect close in Q3, early Q3, which will give us, number one, additional flexibility on the balance sheet because we'll be reducing our debt. Number two, give a clear focus for leadership in the organization on the core regions, North America and Europe. So that's the first step is focusing the organization more on the core of the business. As we drill down into the core, your specific question was North American margin profile. Clearly, we're not happy with the margin profile that we're delivering today. I think that's message number 1. Message number 2 is it's probably not -- it's pretty hard to find a comp for us today. Clearly, there's area comps, but there's no company comp because we are pretty diversified, and diversification can be of strength, but it can also be a weakness. And we're going into that context and better understanding how can we win in the segments that we choose to play and winning for us means an appropriate return on capital, appropriate investments, the right team, the right innovation and the right products. And clearly, it's going to take us some time to dig through the different areas that we participate in to really understand what's the aspiration that we have. So it's too early to share where we think we need to be in 3, 4 years. My message is that there's significant opportunity when I'm looking at the portfolio to really improve the bottom line, and that will be some of the content that we want to share with the capital market in the back half of this year when we're talking about where do we feel we need to focus and where do we think we can get our margin profile by making some smart decisions and focusing on fewer things, but doing those more effectively.
Michael Rehaut
analystOkay. Great. Maybe just moving on to -- I have a couple more questions here, and we have about 10 more minutes left for the session. Again, for those that are dialed in, if you'd like to ask a question of your own, please hit the button. Operator, actually the website kind of is now not allowing me to get in. So operator, if you have those questions, you can forward them to me in the chat, and I'll pass them along. But next question would just focus on price mix. It's a big area of focus, obviously, in general. You mentioned pricing, Bill, earlier in terms of perhaps areas of margin opportunity going forward. How should we think about price mix annually on a go-forward basis, specifically, if you have thoughts around pricing each year and also on the mix side, obviously, you have some higher growth product categories like VPI and [ Oral line ], I'd love to get your sense of both of those components.
William Christensen
executiveSo clearly, our goal is positive price/cost, but we need to do it in an appropriate fashion. And the expectation was for ourselves, but also from many people in the industry that the inflation headwinds are still very relevant. So pricing is a key factor and has been for the last, let's say, 12, 12-plus months just based on the disruption on the economic side, but I'd maybe hand it over to Julie to go through some details specifically on price/cost, if there's more content that we can give you. But we're happy with the work that we're doing, and we need to keep that level of diligence up. I'd say we were late to the game last year, and we've caught up, and now we're getting much better at assessing and seeing the signals early enough where we can take appropriate actions. So that would, on a high level. Julie can give some more details.
Julie Albrecht
executiveYes, I'll just add a few more comments. I think clearly, price/cost is one of our most important factors this year. Obviously, we're talking about the weakening demand. Obviously, cost reductions, we've been talking about that. That's a big theme. But as well, as Bill said, really making sure that we're doing the right thing for JELD-WEN as well as our customers right around pricing. And it was pretty resilient in the first quarter, which was one of our drivers to stronger-than-expected earnings in Q1. As we move through this year, and as Bill mentioned, in 2022, right, we were catching up to inflation and really feel like we caught up in the second half of the year, which means for '23 and when you think about comps, right, and especially top line, we see this plus 10% that we recognized in Q1 on price really declining and really flattening out year-over-year. And a lot of that is comp driven as well as caution around in this environment, where we are able to maybe limit to get new price increases versus a real focus on holding price. But as Bill mentioned, we've really made some nice improvements, especially in North America around visibility, inflation that remains in inventory, right, that we can't lose sight of as that runs through the P&L. And so again, I think just a lot more diligence and better information around managing price, protecting price appropriately. And then again, as Bill said, one of our priorities is staying price/cost positive.
Michael Rehaut
analystRight. And just on the mix side, Julie or Bill, any way to think about mix over the next couple of years? I mean, again, you've had some higher growth product areas, product categories, obviously, positive mix is something that most companies trying to focus on, but there are trends within your industry that would also suggest supporting positive mix over the next couple of years. Any thoughts around expectations of what a positive mix might contribute to the top line or even the [indiscernible ] side on a go-forward basis?
Julie Albrecht
executiveI think it's premature to really give any numbers there. But if you think about -- and if you heard what Bill was just talking about, generally, as we push down more accountability into the regional leadership teams and really shine the light from Bill, myself and down through the regions, again, sales mix and where we're focusing our investments and how are we simplifying our business, these themes that Bill has been talking about, I think all of that leads to -- we would expect to be improving our mix. And so there are pockets of that right now, like we have positive sales mix in Q1. I mean, that's nice. But I mean we're thinking in the coming years, we would hope to see, and as a part of our strategy, we'll be focusing more, call it, big on mix of our products with more of an eye on profitability.
Michael Rehaut
analystRight. We have a couple of minutes left. I don't see any questions in the queue, but I have a couple more of my own. I think probably time for one more important, bigger picture, which is on the balance sheet and capital allocation and Bill, you referred to the sale of Australasia to Platinum. I think following that sale, you expect to fall below 3x net debt to EBITDA by year-end. How should we think about your leverage goals for '24 and beyond? And as that leverage comes down, how would you extensively balance further deleveraging over a '24, '25 time frame versus M&A and share repurchase or other uses of capital?
William Christensen
executiveYes. So where we are today clearly does not meet our expectations, so we need to be below 3x. And we feel with the proceeds of the Australasia divestment, which will have very limited tax leakage and some strong cash flows as we've communicated, we should get below 3x by the end of the year. Clearly, that's not the goal. Rather the goal is to continue delevering and is it 2.5x? Is it below 2x? I don't know, Julie and I are working through that. Clearly, we need to strengthen the balance sheet because we need to do a couple of different things on the capital side. We need to invest in ourselves, which is -- which we're seeing great opportunities with all of the internal projects, the paybacks on these streams are very compelling. So we need to continue that. We need to overinvest in some of the assets that we really haven't taken care of as we should have in the past. Clearly, continue thinking through delevering to give us some more optionality on tuck-in acquisitions because, clearly, once we strengthen our foundation, we are already thinking about profitable growth levers, how are we going to build our portfolio going forward. And I suggest kind of near to midterm share buybacks for us are a pretty low priority, not out of the picture, but we feel that there's ample opportunities for capital allocation in other areas, which would deliver a pretty solid return based on the current setup. So that's what we're looking. But the first goal is to focus, sell Australasia, delever and get below 3x by the end of the year. So that would be our first kind of target that we're communicating.
Michael Rehaut
analystGreat. Well, that actually, I think, does it. We're just about at the ending point, 10 of the hour. So we'll cut it off here. Bill, Julie, thanks so much for your time. Great to -- like I said, meet you at least virtually for the first time. So appreciate your participation. For those on -- that are still on, we'll be continuing at 9:00 a.m. with LGI Homes followed by MDC. Later today, we'll have Fortune Brands, KB Home. The afternoon session will contain Taylor Morrison, PGT and Forestar. So thanks again, Bill and Julie, appreciate it, and we'll see you soon.
William Christensen
executiveThank you, Mike. Have a good day.
Julie Albrecht
executiveThanks, Mike.
William Christensen
executiveAppreciate it. Thank you.
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