JOST Werke SE (JST) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the JOST Werke Q3 2024 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Joachim Durr, CEO. Please go ahead.

Yes, thank you very much. A very good morning here from our JOST office in Shanghai, where I'm today located. A warm welcome to our Q3 quarterly results call for the third quarter 2024. So if you look at the third quarter 2024, we can say we had a very soft, very slow market development, but I think we still had a very, very active Q3 at JOST. First, we had our Capital Markets Day in beginning of September, which I think was a great success, a good outcome and a lot of interesting information and good discussion. And we were also able to reconfirm our ambition, or to show you our ambition for the midterm future where we want to become a $2 billion company -- EUR 2 billion rather company and want to accelerate our earnings to EUR 10 per share on an adjusted EBIT basis. I'm also very happy to show some highlights that help us achieve that target. So very happy that we could announce that we have signed the agreement to acquire the Hyva Group, which is adding the global market leader for hydraulic tipping cylinders to our portfolio. A very good match extending our portfolio, almost no overlap in the existing portfolio, big overlap with the customer groups and also strong footprint in Asia, which is where we expect the market growth to be much stronger than in the traditional Western countries that we today have a lot of operations in. We also continued with the localization of our front loaders in Brazil, entering the Brazilian market with our agricultural business, also a big step after the acquisition of JOST's -- of Crenlo do Brasil last year, which is now JOST Agriculture & Construction South America. So there we're also expanding the portfolio and adding the capability to serve our global OEM agricultural customers. Also in North America, we were able to consolidate our sites in Michigan to further strengthen our profitability in North America, have even more reliable operations to solidify the great market position we have especially on trailer components in North America. Here in China, Ningbo, not far from here, about 150 kilometers from here, we used to have 2 plants, one where we produce loaders and one where we produced the couplings from LH Lift. We have consolidated that plant and we've now moved everything into one existing manufacturing site, also enabling synergies for those components. And last but not least, we've not only worked on existing business, we've also invested in future business. We are accelerating our R&D road map with the help of third parties of very innovative industry players like Trailer Dynamics and FERNRIDE in order to be able to accelerate the change and the transformation in the transport and the agricultural industry. So these were some of the highlights from an operational point of view. And as I said, despite the low market environment, we have been very active, very happy that we could accelerate our path to the vision that we were able to show you at the Capital Markets Day. Looking at the financial highlights in Q3, as I mentioned, the market was much softer as in the previous year. I'll give you a bit more detail on that. Our sales came in at EUR 246 million for the third quarter and that had a contribution included of about EUR 14 million of the M&As that we have closed last year in September. Our adjusted EBIT at EUR 27 million and the margin remained at a fairly positive level of 10.8%, despite a big decline in sales, which I think is quite a positive note. Also, free cash flow, we were very happy with. It continued to grow and we were reaching EUR 83 million in the 9 months period of 2024 and therefore, our leverage remained at 1x EBITDA even despite the investments of that we had in Trailer Dynamics and Oliver will give you a bit more detail in his presentation about that. Adjusted earnings per share were EUR 4.04 for the 9 months period in 2024 and the adjusted net earnings to sales ratio is at 7.1% for the same period. We had adjusted our outlook about 5 years ago based on the new numbers that we received from our global OEMs. Today, we confirm that outlook. We expect our sales to come in at about 15% below last year and our EBIT margin will -- we will be in the corridor between 10.5% and 11%. So let's look briefly at the market environment. As I've already mentioned, if you go to the next slide, please, the markets were quite weak in Q3 especially if you compare it to previous year. For Europe, the truck market was about 20% lower, trailer market 15% lower, tractor market 20% lower. We came in 17% below previous year. So we're more or less following the market that we have in these periods. There may also be a slight price effect, where we see, due to the lower material costs, that the price influence also has a little negative, so I think very logical developments in that market environment. North America, we are, as I mentioned, very exposed to trailers. We are very strong on the trailer components. The trailer market plunged in the Q3 with a minus of 35%, truck market at minus 13% and agricultural components at 18%. We came in with 30% lower sales for North America, but still at a very positive result out of this and Oliver will also give you a bit more detail on that. Asia-Pacific-Africa market not hit as much as in the other areas. We are at minus 10%, minus 12% and also minus 12% for the tractor market and we, more or less also here, follow that development and the markets in India have come in, especially weak after the election. So we think India will recover. But India has had a slow quarter 3 because of the effect of the elections that happened earlier this year. With that, I would like to hand over to Oliver to explain a little more in detail the financial numbers for the Q3.

Yes. Hello, and welcome here from my side to the audience out of Neu-Isenburg. Let's jump into the numbers and as always, start with the regional segments first, before we come back to the group again and let's focus commentary-wise on the quarter-over-quarter development. As Joachim described, markets in Europe have been weak in quarter 3 more than anticipated before, especially the truck demand remained weaker and softer in Q3. We are down from EUR 154 million down to EUR 140 million in terms of sales, which is reported-wise, minus 9.2% and organically minus almost 17%. The demand also for the agricultural business has still been low, although that we see that the inventory levels at the dealers have come down. But it's not the case that we see a recovery here yet. The consolidation of JACSA and LH Lift, you might remember, we consolidated them 1st of September last year. So there is still an inorganic effect in those numbers of roughly EUR 13 million for the region Europe. And this is why we have the difference between the organic and inorganic of around 17 -- 7% points. And with regards to sales, there is no much FX impact in those Q3 numbers. So all in all, a very soft market in quarter 3, which you also then see in our EBIT development that has come down from EUR 13.4 million in the quarter last year to EUR 7.1 million reflecting an EBIT margin now at 5.1%, which is in line more or less with the margin that we have achieved in the second quarter of this year. Nevertheless, you can see that that's a huge drop versus prior year third quarter. And as we always [ commute ], we are struggling at the moment with the high proportion of fixed costs and then the volume effect out of the lower sales jeopardizing the margin here in Europe. We see this also with a lower utilization in our European plants. We are acting here with short-time work shift of projects and so on and so forth to lower the effect from the volume. Nevertheless, the EBIT dropped as described out here. All in all, the cost takeout program, I think is working well. Nevertheless, we also are already preparing for 2025. We see that some cost measures and structural measures have to continue, but we might come to that a little bit later again. So that's all in a nutshell. Europe challenging environment, but I think we have stabilized the development here, especially versus the last quarter and are quite confident then we can continue on that level. Then let's move to North America. Already, Joachim mentioned a bit, so very strong profitability, despite the sharp sales decline. Organically and inorganically, it's almost 30% down in the third quarter from EUR 86 million down to EUR 60 million. And this is especially because, as Joachim showed, the trailer business still really suffering. Last year's quarter was still pushed up by pent-up demand and so we see this sharp decline here. Also what we see is a strong decline in compact loader market is still ongoing like in the first half year of this year. We see here and there that first customers are preparing for, let's say, a recovery. We see this because contracts are awarded to us. But there's nothing for the short-term order book. It's more a long-term strategic direction which is in favor for us. So we should here benefit from gaining market share on a midterm range. But again, at the moment, no tailwind here. There is a positive effect from recovering demand step-by-step for premium loaders. You also see that in the mix effect and the EBIT profitability of the region. That's helping me a lot. We are earning much more money when we sell premium loaders than compact loaders. And that's one big reason of the boost of profitability in terms of margin in the third quarter here in the region. Some small FX headwind, but nothing to be really worried about. And then when we look on to the EBIT, that has been slightly declined only from EUR 8.7 million down to EUR 7.7 million in the region, means EBIT margin has increased from 10% last year third quarter up to 13% and this is predominantly for 3 reasons. The one is, as I mentioned, a strong positive favorable mix in our products, especially also in the agricultural segment. Then the relatively strength of the aftermarket support the third quarter. And also, what we see the -- what Joachim described is we have concluded a site consolidation in Michigan that has been prepared over the last 6 months and has now started to contribute in our numbers here with higher efficiency in production costs. So all in all, despite the sales channel -- sales challenges that we have here in the region, a very profitable development and we are really proud of the performance of the region and the management there. Then let's go to Asia-Pacific-Africa. The demand itself remains what we would label robust, although organically, it's down minus 12%. This is to one reason affected by India. India, you know there was a big election in the first half of the year and everyone expected that the second semester of 2024, we will see a strong recovery. That seems to take a little bit longer that recovery than everyone expected. It's also affecting our transport business in India. And also, what we see is that the trailer business in South Africa is -- has started to suffer a little bit. On the other side, what we see is positive effects from Australia and New Zealand, typically regions and countries in the JOST universe with high margins. That's one reason also why the margin, you see that in the lower section of the chart is well underway. And also, the Chinese export business is still supporting somehow our development as we are strong with customers that benefiting at the moment in China from export business. If we look on the EBIT, that has slightly increased in absolute terms from 9.7% to 10.0% margin-wise, then strong increase by 3.4 basis points up to 21.3%. And as I said, there is a strong positive mix not in terms of products, more in terms of region, mining business and supported by growth in Australia. And on the other side, our Agriculture business in Chennai, although it's softening a bit in the second semester, is still supporting the development versus last year as the ramp-up goes on there. So that's, in a nutshell, the 3 regions. If we sum this up to the group, what we see is, as Joachim described, so sales are down to EUR 246 million, which is an organic decrease by more or less exactly minus 20%, driven by the transport softening in both Europe and North America. And also it's the case that the agricultural loader business has started to stabilize, but it's not supporting a strong recovery at the moment. If you look on the business lines itself, you see business line Transport in the quarter, minus 23% and the business line Agriculture, plus 19%. But that plus 19% is driven by the inorganic effect of the consolidation of JACSA and LH Lift in those numbers versus last year's third quarter. If you extract that, the organic decline in Agriculture business is minus 5.2%. So that's what we see is a stabilization slightly, but still not a recovery on an organic comparable basis. And if we go into the profitability, EBIT absolute-wise has dropped from EUR 33.4 million down to EUR 26.5 million, reflecting a slight margin decrease from 11.4% last year third quarter down to 10.8%, which we believe is still a very strong performance despite all the challenges, especially that we have in the Transport business in the third quarter. We see that still, for sure, the aftermarket business is a resilient business in supporting both business lines. We are definitely benefiting from the very positive development in terms of profitability in North America. And we believe that that's a sustainable one. And also, the strict cost control that we have been implemented at the moment in Europe, for sure, is stabilizing the margin development on top. So that's with regards to sales and EBIT. If we then go further regarding our adjusted net income and adjusted EPS bridge, you see starting from the left, reported net income for the first 9 months is EUR 43 million. If we then add back taxes and finance results, we come up with a reported EBIT of EUR 71 million for the first 9 months and then doing our adjustments for PPA and some other exceptionals, which are predominantly restructuring costs for the relocations that we have mentioned and partially also already a little bit of the M&A activity, although that the main M&A activity expenses for the Hyva acquisition will take place in the fourth quarter. We then end up with an adjusted EBIT of EUR 95 million reflecting then an adjusted EPS if we deduct again the adjusted finance result and adjusted tax rate of 4.4% for the first 9 months, which is versus sales still an adjusted net earnings ratio of 7.1% for the first 9 months. If you compare that to the first 9 months of last year, there we were at around 8.1%. So despite an organic sales decline of 20%, we are really managing still a very nice adjusted net earnings ratio. And as you know, after the Capital Markets -- or with the Capital Markets Day, as Joachim mentioned, we have also adjusted our dividend policy and will link that in future to the adjusted net earnings. So that should show shareholder value creation despite a very cyclical and challenging development. So if we then go please to the development of our important KPIs regarding ROCE, equity ratio and leverage development. ROCE has been affected a little bit by the lower EBIT, but still stays strong at around 19%. Equity ratio has increased by the net income effect over the last months up to almost now 40% and despite translation effects in the balance sheet. And this, for sure, helps us now going forward also to digest the Hyva acquisition in probably the first quarter of 2025 as we go in that transaction with a very strong balance sheet. Leverage, Joachim already mentioned briefly, stays at around 1.0, so more or less the same level like end of last year despite certain big payments and payouts that we had this year. You remember the payments that we had to do for the earn-out for Alo, the dividend payment in May, but also now here in the third quarter, our investment in Trailer Dynamics with EUR 50 million, all in all, almost EUR 60 million that we digested very successfully with the strong free cash flow that we probably show on the next slide. Free cash flow for the first 9 months at EUR 83.4 million, translating into a conversion rate of 1.4. You know our goal is to stay above 1.0. I think so far, we are well underway. Let's look into quarter 4 will be here and there a challenge. Nevertheless, we still have some room regarding working capital to achieve here our goals that we have for the year. CapEx with EUR 21.7 million in spending, excluding M&A, so especially the Trailer Dynamics. Topic is around 2.6% and then with that fully in line with the guidance that we issued for the year and also in line with the guidance that we issued on the Capital Markets Day. Because of the sales decline this year and you know our revised guidance with plus/minus 2.5% points, plus or minus the 15% that we issued 5 weeks ago, might be the case that technically, if we are still -- because we are still investing here and there in our future that the final CapEx ratio might go up to the 2.9%, almost 3% with the full year numbers, but let's see. And net working capital ratio, still very favorable, below 18% with 17.7%. That's basically 2 effects here. One is, for sure, with the business decline, accounts receivable go down. And on top, we are doing on an opportunistic basis, wherever it makes sense from an interest expenses point of view, some factoring and also inventories have come down versus end of last year or September 2023 balance. So supporting the free cash flow pretty much. Then I think that's it from my side and I will hand over to Joachim for our closing outlook.

Yes. Thank you, Oliver. Yes, let's see how we expect the markets to close for this year 2024. And if you look at this slide, you will see a few changes versus the slide that you've seen in August. Major changes on the negative side are trucks in Europe are now expected to close lower than initially thought in midyear of this year. Same is true for trailers in North America, where you now see minus 25% to minus 30%. And in the Asia-Pacific region, mainly because of the impact of the India actions, as mentioned, slightly lower than initially expected throughout or in the first half of this year. So this will be most likely the outcome of this year. It is somewhat of a challenging market environment with these big declines. But I think as a company, we're able to respond quite professional to all these adjustments. And as you've seen in the results that Oliver presented and also in our outlook, I think we're using this market decline to also improve some of the structural points and to build for the future. So what is the new outlook? Just repeating what we have more or less announced 5 weeks ago. We expect sales to be down 15% year-over-year within a range of 2.5 percentage points up or down. Last year, we were at EUR 1.25 billion in sales. The adjusted EBIT will follow more or less the sales development and we expect the adjusted EBIT margin to be in the range between 10.5% and 11% as we've announced briefly recently. Our CapEx, as usual, we try to stay and we will end this year also between 2.5% and 2.9% of sales. And working capital is expected and Oliver just mentioned that already is expected to be below 19% of sales. Last year, we were able to end the year at 18%. So we will not be far from that range. Let's go to the next slide, where I show a little more detail on where we stand with the Hyva deal. As you all know and as we have announced, we signed the SPA, Sales and Purchasing Agreement on October 14 of this year. The financing is secured with what we consider very attractive conditions and with a time frame of 24 months. So we are in a quite comfortable financing -- refinancing situation to digest that deal. We have initiated the merger control filings in October and we expect to get the responses back beginning of next year so that we can close in Q1 of 2025. Both parties are looking forward to the PMI work and each party is doing what they can in order to prepare for that. We are working with [ clean-teams ] on some financial workstreams for the rest -- each party is doing their preparation so that we can hit the road running when we get the approval from the merger control. Overall, there's a lot of positive feedback from customers on this future combination. It's a industrial logic that is compelling to most of our customers. They're looking forward to an even stronger JOST Group being able to follow them globally and increasing the coverage and the customer support. And also for our employees, I think there's a lot of good opportunities for future growth in that combination. So we're still very positive about the deal and can't wait to start the integration work in Q1 of 2025. So to summarize the call, the acquisition of Hyva is a key milestone in our midterm growth targets that we have announced in the Capital Market Days. And you can look back at the numbers, but it's very simple. We will be beyond EUR 2 billion in sales and we expect the earnings per share to be beyond the EUR 10 per share on an adjusted EBIT basis. Also, we were able to further improve our working capital and our operational excellence, which we can see in the strong free cash flow that we were able to generate and maintain our leverage at the 1.0 level for the time being. It's all before closing, obviously. Our profitability was strengthened through the consolidation of our production plants in China, here in Ningbo and also in North America. The local teams are doing an excellent job in driving the synergies from the previous M&As that we've done here in China, but also synergies that are built and generated through the existing business as we're doing it in North America. We're able to generate strong shareholder value with a return on capital employed of 19%, a cash conversion rate of 1.4 and adjusted earnings per share of EUR 4.04 in the first 9 months of this year. And we are using the current market environment to use our flexibility on the one hand to continue to generate strong financial results, but also to strengthen our market positioning and to continue to improve the group's business resilience in all regions. So with that, I'm closing the presentation and I'm looking forward to receive your questions.

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Jorge Gonzalez with Hauck Aufhauser.

Jorge, we can't hear you.

The next question is from Yasmin Steilen with Berenberg.

Okay, lovely, lovely. I have 3, if I may. The first one on your production footprint. Could you remind us on your regional production footprint, including Hyva and how we should think about your business in case of increasing import tariffs in the U.S.? That's my first question. Then the second one, with the sharp decline in particular in the U.S. trailer market and the ongoing weakness in EMEA, how should we think about the price negotiations with your OE customers? Is there a risk of meaningful price pressure in the next year? And if yes, how can you manage this? And the last one on the Agri segment. So while the business is still down organically, it's good to see a sequential slowing of the decline in the third quarter. Although you have not stressed in the call, see any indications of recovery. What is your current assumption for recovery in the Agri business by the different regions?

Thank you, Yasmin. Maybe I start and then Oliver can give a bit more detail to the Hyva question on the footprint of turnover. Yes, concerning tariffs, of course, that is a threat that everybody is looking at. We've made a good move in the past, I believe, where we -- I have to start the other way around. Let's start with the Transport business. On the Transport business, we are a local-for-local production company. We produce our volumes on landing legs and fifth-wheels for the North American market exclusively in North America, in the U.S. actually and that's where we've just had the plant consolidation in Michigan, where we do all our landing legs and we do all our fifth-wheels in Tennessee. So I think we're very well-positioned and we should have no impact on any tariffs there because we do the production of all our Transport business in North America. By the way, that's also true for all the other regions. I've been to our plant in Wuhan today and I've been with a lot of customers. We serve all the customers here in Asia from our Asian plant in China. We serve our customers in Brazil from our Brazilian joint venture in Caxias do Sul. And the same is true for all the major markets. So on the Transport business, we do not have any significant supply chains that would give us a big hit on any protective tariffs that we would see. A little different is the situation on loaders. We produce the professional loaders mainly in Sweden and the compact loaders mainly in Asia. We have 2 sites in Asia. We traditionally have the site here in Ningbo, where we also had the site consolidation with our LH Lift business for couplings. But we have opened the site last year and that has played out very well in India, where we also produce compact loaders. So we are winning new contracts and we are giving a better service with protection from the already existing tariffs to our customers in North America on those loaders because we now deliver these loaders from India. And we're winning, as I said, business with Indian large tractor manufacturers like Mahindra & Mahindra and ITL that are very interested in receiving their goods from India. So yes, on the Agriculture business, there is a potential for some impact, but we've already softened that impacts. The strong margin products come from Sweden and we are well-positioned now with our plant in Sweden, our plant in Brazil, where we also start the loader production, have started the loader production this year and the 2 existing plants in India and in China. And we can move quite flexibly between those plants and use that capability to counter any of the negative effects that there are. And as I mentioned, in the Transport business, we are naturally protected by our local-for-local production strategy. U.S. trailer and it's the risk concerning prices that you've asked in your second question. That's daily business for us. We have very little openness with our OEM customers to talk about price increases. With the higher material and energy costs in the last years, we were able to bring in some price increases with our OEM customers. And of course, now with the lower volumes, the discussion starts again. I think we are very well-positioned with the high market share and the high service that we have, also with our sales model where we not only talk to the OEMs, but also talk to the final customers, the distributors and the dealers. And so we have a very strong brand that helps us defend our prices to a certain degree. But of course, all our OEMs are reaching out to us and they're asking for price reductions, which I consider operational business like we've had it in the past before COVID. And we have to entertain that. That's part of doing our business. But as I said, we are with the brand and the support that we can give those global customers, we are in a very strong position because especially the local players -- and that's a big discussion here that I'm having in China this week, the local players, they don't have the capability to support their product outside of China. So I've received a lot of interest here from the customers for their export plans to use a brand that is globally recognized and that can provide a global service. And that is some of the protection that we have and some of the reasons why the OEMs in the end are willing to pay a certain premium for a JOST product because they know it will lead to a satisfied final customer that can do his operation with the products that our OEMs are selling. So I'm not saying that this is easy and that there's no pressure, but I think we are very well-positioned to have those discussions with our customers and we should be better positioned than most of our competitors. On Ag, you mentioned it and that's also the picture that we are seeing. It's still very slow market. We see the bottoming out. We see the decline much less somewhere we see a few plants growing already, orders coming back. We're very positive because we're getting very positive feedback and we're winning new orders, but the market volume is not there at this point in time. A good signal is and from the shows that we've had in Italy the last week, we see that the material at the dealers, the stock levels are reducing. So -- and that's a good sign. So we don't expect the orders to come back first half of next year because dealers still have some stock and there's still a lot of farmers that are waiting for the prices to drop on their components, on the machines, but also on the implements. But the dealers have consumed or are consuming the stock levels and that's why we have the optimism that next year will be the turnaround and that the second half of next year, we will see some of that market come back. On our footprint after Hyva, I think we've had a good analysis. And Oliver, maybe you can elaborate a little more on where we see our sales to happen after the Hyva closure.

Yes. And Yasmin, my understanding of your question was also probably regarding the new administration that we have in U.S. beginning of next year.

Exactly, exactly.

Yes. So the situation here is, I say, is a little bit in between our business line Transport and Ag at Hyva. So in China, they are producing local-for-local. In India, they are producing local-for-local. In Europe, they get -- they're producing local-for-local and get imports out of China, especially for the components business. In Brazil, they are producing local-for-local. So for the vast majority, they are pretty comparable to us and shouldn't be affected too much on tariff wars. There's one exception North America, we have to look at because they don't have an own footprint for their cylinder business in North America. So these parts come from either Brazil or from China. However, part of our synergy road map for the acquisition was anyhow now to leverage the JOST production network and footprint network in North America to grow the business local-for-local in North America. So for us, a potential tariff war, China, U.S. would only push us in terms of faster acceleration of our strategy that we anyhow have now to leverage the JOST network and achieve a strong growth for the cylinder business in North America. And we wouldn't do that by spanning a big value chain. We would also try to leverage production footprint that we already have in North America. So all in all, in a nutshell, besides the last topic, the impact shouldn't be too much, at least at what we see at the moment.

The next question is -- it's Jorge Gonzalez with Hauck Aufhauser.

Perfect. Sorry because I had some technical issues. In fact, now I can also talk with the video, but let's keep the phone call better. Sorry if I repeat some questions that were already answered as I had some issues with the sound. My first question is regarding the guidance for the year. Looking into the quarter development, I'm wondering if you see some sequential improvement in Q4, especially in Europe, taking into account the production schedule you have already in front of you? And if this could mean that the outcome for the year could be closer to the best part of the guidance, more 13% decline than 15%. If this makes sense or there is anything -- any dynamics here that I'm not seeing that might make this more difficult? Well, let's go with this one, please, first.

Joachim...

Yes. Obviously, Hyva will not be in our numbers before the closing. And from a guidance perspective, we've updated our guidance based on the outlooks that we have from our OEMs. And today, I would still see the same picture that I'm seeing -- that we have been seeing 5 weeks ago. So I think we are -- we have a track record of being quite reliable with our guidance when -- we came out with the guidance 5 weeks ago and I think we're very -- we still feel very comfortable with the guidance that we gave and there has been no change in that picture. So I for now would calculate with the numbers that we have guided. And I don't see any reason to deviate from that up or down at this point in time.

Maybe, Joachim, let me be more specific in the question. So for instance, in truck in Europe in Q4, should we see some sequential growth in volumes, taking into account the postponements in production in Q3? And maybe this is compensated with lower Agriculture and lower trailer, but that will be my specific question on truck in Europe? And then in APAC, is there any reason to not expect some improvement in Q4 compared to Q3 in APAC?

I can answer, Joachim, if you want?

Yes, go ahead.

Yes. So I think for Europe, what we might see, but on a notch-by-notch basis, so to speak, is probably a little bit better trailer. But on the other side, a little bit more softening truck. That's how we see it at the moment. All in all, as Joachim described, then fully fit into the guidance with a midpoint of minus 15% that we gave. So there wouldn't be much changes at the moment. Regarding APAC, I think the biggest topic where we look at, at the moment is the Indian economy, where everyone expected a fast recovery after the election. That still takes a while. It's step-by-step improving. But what we see here is that it will shift into our fiscal year 2025. You probably know that in India, the fiscal year runs until end of March. So the first quarter there might be then better than the current run rate of the business. But also from there, we don't expect too much tailwind in the next weeks until year-end. So that's why we all in all stick to what we announced 5 weeks ago.

Yes. And Jorge, I think you're probably referring to some of the announcements that some of our OE customers have made recently. But most of those were already anticipated by us. We get the long-term and short-term call-offs. We interpreted them. We are talking to them on a continuous basis. And most of that has already been in our guidance. And there has been no surprises to us that would lead us to adjust our guidance at this point.

That's very useful. And then my second question is regarding [indiscernible] Hyva in general. I'm wondering when do you plan to give us some figures for Hyva, some historic figures that could help us to update our models? But maybe in the meantime, can you tell us how Hyva has developed in the last 12 months or year-to-date in this economic environment? And what are your expectations in general for the contribution of Hyva next year, if it's going to be some growth there, flat or if maybe the cycle is now worsening for that business? Can you give us some indications here, please?

Yes. Maybe I'll give a little bit of outlook and then you can come to the reporting, Oliver.

Yes.

On how we plan to report it. Of course, Hyva is in the same industry as we are, but they are less impacted right now. So you've seen the numbers in our presentation on the last 12 months basis. That's what we have calculated and presented to you on -- I think it was in September when we announced that we are in negotiations with them. And of course, they are also impacted by some of these mechanisms, but not as much as the transport industry because they're more linked to the construction side of the transport industry for the tippers, tipper trailers and also for off-highway components. And there, the weakness here in China has already been in their plans and that has not changed. And in the other markets like in Europe, construction has been low and has not suffered as much as the transport now in the recent months. So yes, you will always also see a certain impact, but not to the degree that you've seen on the numbers that I've shown on the '24 market chart for our traditional Transport and Agriculture business. And with that, as far as how we would like to report them in the future, of course, we have the biggest interest to have this very transparent for us and we'll also find -- make sure that we find a way so that you can get the right information. But Oliver, maybe you can add a little bit to that what our thoughts are at this point in time and we're still far away from closing.

So -- but regarding the development, fully aligned with what Joachim said, probably 2 additions here. They have a strong business in India, as you know. So it means from the, let's say, slower recovery after the election, there might be some effects here, although, I mean, they are much more diverse in terms of the end markets, as Joachim described. On the other side, it should give us some tailwind for next year when India should improve. And the same is true for Brazilian business there. They have a very strong Brazilian business, very profitable business. But that's partially in the Ag industry or the end market is the Ag industry. So that's also something where they are a little bit softening. Regarding reporting, there are several considerations at the moment in place. For sure, we will stick to our segment reporting in the 3 regions. So on the one side, Hyva will flow into the regions country-by-country, so to speak. On the other side, we are considering to show our investors like a business line reporting the Hyva at least sales and market development as a separate information from, let's say, the first day of closing onwards.

And a very last one on -- maybe you already commented on this regarding truck for next year in U.S., well, we have this potential lever with the new emission regulation for driving maybe the demand on the second part of the year. But I'm more interested in Europe that is more like a black box. What do you think are going to be the drivers for truck in Europe next year, taking into account that it's not as a low level that is trailer is, I think, better than the replacement level? So how do you see truck going forward?

Yes. I would call it a bottoming out what we expect. The fundamentals -- I mean, if we talk to our customers today, they are slightly positive, I would say. But if you ask for the reasons, there's really no good reasons other than -- it's a too low level right now. It doesn't feel like that is a level that where we are at the right replacement rates. And there's probably some truth to that because there has been a lot of trucks that have been replaced in 2023 and the replacement cycle is not expected to come back until 2026, '27 for those trucks, unless there is some regulatory changes and that's what you're referring to. That is the case in North America, where we expect before 2027 to have a strong pull ahead effect on purchases. We don't see that for Europe at this point in time. So -- and we also see that the kilometers driven is going down. We see less industrial production overall in Germany. But it's also true that the current replacement rate is below the normal replacement rate. And with that, I would call it a bottoming out. We expect more or less the same levels for the beginning of the year with a slight improvement in the second half of the year.

So we have one written question from [ Pierre Castella ]. Do you expect those excellent margin levels in North America to be maintained? Or is it a one-off?

Joachim. A fair question. But I wouldn't call it a one-off. For sure, these -- I mean, let's take the actual quarter, 13% to a certain extent that's supported by effects that will -- are bottoming out like Joachim described with the markets. We see at the moment that still prices are on a very high level, input costs have come down. And just from a, let's say, a delay effect, we might see a narrowing in the gross profit margin, which then will affect the EBIT margin also in North America. So that for the first quarter and then also next year might be a counter effect. On the other side, compared to historical levels that we had in North America, 9%, 10% EBIT, we will continuously have a sustainable add-on in margins. And this is true because of the portfolio management that we did already in 2023. And then this year, the footprint reorganization and so on and so forth. There's another effect there we have to see. This is what we described, the higher share of premium loaders in North America. At the moment, that seems to continue, but that's something like a product mix effect that can always quarter-over-quarter have a little bit of an impact in there. But the structural effect of higher productivity, better efficiency, site consolidations that we did should have -- should on top of the 10% that we achieved last year be a sustainable effect. I don't know, Joachim, if...

No, nothing to add. I mean these are the effects that you've mentioned. And I think on top of that, we have a very capable team there, which is very dedicated and has all the ability to act quickly to adjust their costs and that's what we see. And that's why they manage the downturn as professional and as good as we're seeing it. So fully aligned, Oliver, I think we are in a much better position even in the existing market environments. We have some positive effects that will wear out, but not to a significant level because we've improved the bottom of the business or the basis of the business with a better product portfolio, with the organizational setup, with a better operational setup and that will keep the margin at a very solid level.

I don't see further questions.

There are no more questions at this time. Ladies and gentlemen, I would like now to turn the conference back over to Joachim Durr for any closing remarks.

Okay. Yes. Thank you very much for your interest. As I mentioned, it has been a quarter with very little activity on the market side, less than we would want, but a lot of activity internally to execute our strategy. And we are quite happy with, one, the operational outcome of that somewhat softer market environment and also with the execution of the strategy that we were able to present to you on the Capital Markets Day. So we're closing this quarter with a very good feeling despite the soft market environments because we know the markets will come back and we will use that environment to strengthen our position and to do our homework to a certain degree. Yes, we're looking forward to the closing of the year. And thanks for your interest throughout the year. Thanks for being at the Capital Markets Day and thanks for being in the call today. All the best. Thank you. Bye-bye.

Bye-bye.

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over. You may now disconnect your lines. Goodbye.