JSW Steel Limited (500228) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

January 23, 2026

NSEI IN Materials Metals and Mining earnings 66 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the JSW Steel Q3 FY '26 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Ashwin Bajaj, Group Head of Investor Relations. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Ashwin Bajaj

executive
#2

Yes. Thank you very much, operator. So good evening, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to JSW Steel's Earnings Call for Q3 of FY 2026. We have with us today the management team represented by Mr. Jayant Acharya, Joint MD and CEO; Mr. G. S. Rathore, Chief Operating Officer; Mr. Arun Maheshwari, Director of Commercial and Marketing; and Mr. Swayam Saurabh, the CFO. We will start with opening remarks by Mr. Acharya and then open the floor to questions. So with that, over to you, Mr. Acharya.

Jayant Acharya

executive
#3

Yes. So good evening, everyone. Let me begin by talking a little bit on our strategy. JSW Steel has adopted a prudent strategy over the past years and has created significant value for our shareholders -- actually for all our stakeholders. On 3rd December, the company announced a strategic joint venture with JFE Steel Japan for its BPSL Steel business. With this transaction, JFE will take a stake of 50% in BPSL Steel business at an equity value of INR 31,500 crores and an enterprise value of INR 53,000 crores. This transaction will enable a cash flow of INR 32,000 crores and a substantial deleveraging of about INR 37,000 crores for JSW Steel. This partnership allows us to grow the BPSL business with our project expertise and operational excellence and bring in the JFE technological expertise to be able to produce a variety of value-added products. It will also allow JSW Steel to accelerate the growth across its portfolio of assets in a financially prudent manner to meet the demand growth in India. Today, the Board has approved a 5 million tonne steel plant at our new site in Jagatsinghpur, Odisha. The project will be housed in our subsidiary, JSW Utkal Limited, and will entail a CapEx of INR 31,600 crores, with commissioning by FY '30. This project is the first phase with expansion project potential to go to 13.2 million tonnes. We already had commenced setting up 2 8 million tonne pellet plants, you will recall at this site and a 30 million tonne slurry pipeline is under construction by JSW Infra, which will transfer the iron ore from the mines to the plant. This is a port-based facility with our own captive jetty and coupled with the iron ore through the slurry pipeline, this is an extremely efficient location in terms of our overall logistics cost. Together, these milestones significantly accelerate our capacity growth plans. We are well on track to reach 50 million tonne in India by FY '31 other than the BPSL business. With India steel demand rising rapidly, these strategic steps put JSW in a very strong position to grow responsibly and sustainably in the years ahead. On the macroeconomic front, you would have seen the IMF has given an outlook of about 3.3% growth in 2026 and kept its outlook the same for 2027. The resilience in the global economy in spite of the ongoing uncertainties is a mention which IMF has given in their commentary. The momentum is being supported by strong tailwinds from AI and technology investments. Growth is also getting a further lift from supportive policies and easing conditions. With advanced GDP estimates in India pegging the growth at about 7.4%, we remain the world's fastest-growing major economy. While global headwinds persist, the Indian government has provided various policy support measures and policy reforms. Alongside the recent trade agreements, this bodes well for our medium-term prospects. We are seeing a strong post-GST momentum in consumption, further aided by income tax cuts and benign inflation. Rural indicators remain positive, driving strong tractors and 2-wheeler sales. Central government CapEx, while was low in October, November, but is up 28% April to November due to a strong H1. The annual CapEx target looks to be on track. While residential sales have remained somewhat soft, the commercial real estate shows a robust movement. Conditions for private CapEx is increasingly becoming conducive, supported by a healthy balance sheet and RBI's recent rate cuts and lower inflation. India's steel consumption continued to grow with a 9-month growth of about 7%, though Q3 was lower at 4.6%. However, the December demand on absolute number was about 14.5 million tonnes. And the demand in the quarter 4 on a seasonally strong demand and restocking looks good for volumes in the quarter ahead. Looking ahead for the year FY '27, the demand is projected to grow in the range of 7% to 9%. On the policy front, the government has taken steps to arrest unfair trade by imposing antidumping duties on hot-rolled coils from Vietnam in November and CRNO from China in December. And a safeguard duty has been finalized in December '25. This will enable the local domestic industry to get a level playing field in India. In China, the steel production was down 4.4% Y-o-Y in CY '25, a decline of about close to 44 million tonnes. However, their exports, including semi-finished steel surged 14% to 133.5 million tonnes, primarily due to a weak domestic consumption. The elevated exports kept Asian prices subdued in 2025. Looking ahead, the anti-involution measures, which have been taken up by the Chinese government, export licensing and some production moderation, which we see should help support the regional prices in Asia. Moving to sustainability. JSW Steel, I'm happy to mention, was ranked #1 in the global steel sector in the S&P Global Corporate Sustainability Assessment and continues to remain a part of the Dow Jones Sustainability Index. Our focus on energy efficiency was also recognized at the 35th National Energy Conservation Awards 2025, where our Dolvi unit was awarded India's best-performing unit by the President of India, and BPSL received a certificate of merit. We continue to progress on energy transition with 1 gigawatt of renewable capacity commissioned. We have already got the approval for 2.5 gigawatt generation and a 320-megawatt hour of battery storage, which is in various stages of construction. On the technology front, we commissioned India's first diesel to battery converted locomotive at Vijayanagar. These initiatives underscore our commitment to sustainability across our operations. On the digital front, JSW has deployed AI-based vision systems that monitor conveyors, center flames, flare stacks and equipment in real time to improve yield, efficiency and reliability. These digital solutions are delivering substantial impact through cost savings, reduced emissions and preventions of over 1,000 safety incidents. This system is deployable across multiple locations and with additional use cases, we see the potential to save INR 100 crores per annum. On the projects front, apart from the Board approval for our new plant in Odisha, let me briefly update you on the other projects. At JVML Vijayanagar, we reached a key operational milestone as the 5 million tonne plant is now fully ramped up. The 1.5 million tonne BF-3 upgradation at Vijayanagar remains on track for commissioning by the end of quarter 4 FY '26. At Dolvi, the phase 3 expansion from 10 million to 15 million is progressing as planned, with completion expected by September 2027. Technical and commercial discussions for equipment is underway for the 1 million tonne electric arc furnace and structural mill announced for Kadapa last quarter. Our value-added product capacity across Vijayanagar, Khopoli and Raigarh are progressing steadily. The Board has today approved 0.2 million tonne tinplate capacity and 0.36 million tonne capacity for GI and GL lines at our downstream units in Rajpura. Together, these value-added expansions will add about 4 million tonnes of flats and longs, complementing our steelmaking operations. This reinforces our long-term growth strategy and strengthens our competitive position as it adds to our value-added product portfolio. Strengthening our raw material security has been one of our key strategic priorities. We have 23 iron ore mines, which we have mentioned earlier, out of which 12 have been operating. During the quarter 3, we have commenced the production from the 0.5 million tonne Cudnem mine in Goa, taking the total number of operational mines to 13. Once our mines are operationalized, coupled with some enhancements of existing capacities, we expect to produce about 50 million tonnes per annum, which will cover around 50% of our total iron ore requirement by FY '31. On the coking coal front, we have secured 3 mines and coal linkages in India and taken a stake of 30% in the Illawarra coking coal PLV mine in Australia, which together will provide us about 5 million tonnes of coking coal. This will meet around 25% of our total coking coal requirement in FY '31. Additionally, we are in the process of acquiring the Mozambique MDR high-grade coking coal deposit. This transaction is expected to be closed in quarter 4 of this calendar year by March. So therefore, the raw material side, we are strengthening both from iron ore and coking coal perspective. Moving to our operational performance. We reported a strong operational performance among -- amid the ongoing uncertainties. Our consolidated crude steel production stood at 7.48 million tonnes, up 6% Y-o-Y for the quarter. Our Indian operations delivered a production volume of 7.28 million tonnes, up 7% Y-o-Y. Production was down sequentially due to the blast furnace 3 at Vijayanagar being under shutdown for the capacity enhancement. Utilization of our Indian operations stood approximately at 93%, excluding the BF-3. What it underlines is the consistency in the capacity utilization at JSW Steel across locations. We have been more or less at 90% or above across quarters. During quarter 3, we achieved our best-ever sales, both from a consolidated as well as an Indian operation point of view, increasing by 14% Y-o-Y. This was mainly driven by the volumes from JVML plant ramp-up to its full capacity. Our domestic sales rose by 10% Y-o-Y in quarter 3 and 12% in the first 9 months, well ahead of India's consumption growth. This has enabled us to increase our market share. We have also liquidated 0.3 million tonnes of inventory during the quarter. The other positive is that the value-added product sales were the highest ever at 4.54 million tonnes, growing 16% Y-o-Y and forming about 61% of our total volumes, including JVML. The deliveries to the auto and renewable sectors were also at all-time highs. If you look at our financial results, the consolidated revenue stood at INR 45,991 crores, with adjusted EBITDA of INR 6,620 crores. The EBITDA per tonne was close to INR 8,700 and a margin of 14.4%. The reported EBITDA for the quarter stands at INR 6,496 crores. During the quarter, steel prices were at a multiyear low and adversely impacted realizations. Coking coal costs were higher by $1.05 in line with our guidance, while iron ore provided a slight cost benefit due to better blends. While margins were negatively impacted during the quarter, we were able to mitigate the drop in prices through a better value-added product mix and cost efficiencies. Our Indian operations delivered a total adjusted EBITDA of INR 6,522 crores and EBITDA per tonne of close to INR 8,800 per tonne, with a margin of 15%. This was enabled by strong growth in domestic sales and better value-added product mix. The U.S. operations delivered EBITDA -- operating EBITDA of $3.1 million, which was lower, primarily driven by lower volumes due to the plant shutdown at Ohio for the caster upgradation project and lower NSR for the plates. For the 9-month of FY '26, U.S. operations have reported an EBITDA of $36 million, a substantial improvement versus an EBITDA loss of $32 million last year. Italian operations delivered an EBITDA of $5.3 million during the quarter. During the quarter, the total EBITDA for our overseas operations was at INR 122 crores. Unrealized ForEx losses stood at INR 124 crores, which impacted the overall profitability during the quarter. With the enactment of the new labor code, the required changes in employee benefits have had a onetime impact of INR 529 crores, which has been shown as an exceptional item in the profit and loss account. The consolidated PAT stood at INR 2,410 crores compared to INR 719 crores in quarter 3 of last year. This profit in quarter 3 is after recognizing net deferred tax assets of INR 1,439 crores related to the slump sale of BPSL Steel business undertaking. Net debt was at INR 80,347 crores, and our debt ratios improved versus the last quarter. Net debt-to-EBITDA stood at 2.91 and net debt to equity at 0.92. Our weighted average interest cost improved to 6.51% in the quarter, an improvement of approximately 60 bps if you were to compare with last year. Our revenue acceptances stood at $2.36 billion. Our CapEx spend during the quarter was roughly about INR 3,500 crores and total for 9 months stood at INR 10,000 crores. For the FY '26, we expect the total CapEx to be in the range of INR 15,000 crores to INR 16,000 crores. The JSW One platform has been doing well, has seen a significant uptick in volumes, especially in steel, which grew by 43% Y-o-Y. Quarter 3 was strong with a GMV of INR 4,544 crores, representing a solid 36% jump Y-o-Y. Over INR 1,300 crores of that GMV was driven by JSW One's credit offerings. With these results, we have achieved over 74% of our total consolidated volume guidance for both production and sales for the FY '26 and we expect to broadly achieve our full year guidance of 30.5 million tonne for production and 29.2 million tonne for sales. To conclude, we continue to monitor Chinese steel exports and are cautiously optimistic that measures such as export licensing and anti-involution policy should provide some support to the regional prices. India's growth prospects remain strong with the government's recent reform measures providing further impetus to consumption and private CapEx on the back of rising capacity utilization of companies. The upcoming Union Budget is expected to continue to see the government focus on reforms as well as public CapEx. All this bodes well for the steel demand growth and the trade measures announced by the Government of India is most welcome and will help keep unfair imports in check. Looking ahead, steel prices have begun to recover in end December and have continued an uptrend in January. Quarter 4 margins should be better on the back of higher steel prices, supported by seasonally strong demand, which is expected to offset the impact of higher raw material prices, especially coking coal. We expect the coking coal cost to increase between $15 to $20, while iron ore prices are expected to be range bound. We expect a strong quarter 4 volumes from JSW Steel due to a healthy demand in this quarter. And for the next year, we see a steel demand growth of 7% to 9% for the FY '27. We'll be happy to take questions which you may have. Thank you.

Operator

operator
#4

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Sumangal Nevatia from Kotak Securities.

Sumangal Nevatia

analyst
#5

Congratulations on the new expansion announcement. So first question is the bookkeeping one. If you could just highlight what is the steel price increase we are seeing in the last 3 or 4 weeks. And as far as time line is concerned, what is the update on the slurry pipeline and the JFE Bhushan deal closure time line?

Jayant Acharya

executive
#6

Yes. So the prices of steel have started moving -- have started recovering from the multiyear lows in the last quarter. In the end of December, we saw prices moving for flat steel by about roughly INR 1,500 per tonne. In the beginning of January, it has moved by about INR 2,000 per tonne. We see some recovery possibility during this quarter as we move ahead. The second question on the slurry pipeline, which you have asked is expected to be somewhere in the quarter 4 of 2027 -- FY '27. On the BPSL, I'll request Swayam to give an update on the BPSL asset.

Swayam Saurabh

executive
#7

So on the BPSL asset, we are pretty much on track versus the time line we had indicated. Earlier this week, we received Competition Commission's approval for the joint venture. We are right now in the process of obtaining shareholders' approval, which we expect to get by first week of February. As indicated, we should see slump sale getting concluded before end of this year, which is before end of the March, and that should translate into about INR 24,400 crores of effective cash coming in JSW Steel and our net leverage reduction of about INR 29,000 crores. The second leg also remains on track, but that is expected end of quarter 1 of FY '27.

Jayant Acharya

executive
#8

Which will be an additional...

Swayam Saurabh

executive
#9

Additional INR 7,800 crores.

Jayant Acharya

executive
#10

INR 7,875 crores, yes.

Sumangal Nevatia

analyst
#11

Yes. Got it. I have one more question, and that's slightly on a medium- to long-term strategy. So if we look at our expansion FY '30, we would reach somewhere around 47 million tonnes in India and we'll be adding capacity only at the rate of around 7% to 8% CAGR. Now given the Bhushan divestment, our balance sheet would be quite deleveraged potentially around 1.5x net debt to EBITDA. So does that -- does it make sense to evaluate the other brownfield expansion opportunities parallelly? Or should we now just expect this expansion till '30 and then maybe evaluate sometime closer to FY '28, '29 as the next expansion plan?

Jayant Acharya

executive
#12

If you see the presentation, which we have given for this quarter, we have given you an indication of the expansions likely by FY '31, which takes it to about 56 million tonnes by FY '31, which includes 1.5 million tonnes of Ohio and 4.5 million tonnes of the BPSL asset. So we have moved up with respect to our earlier goal of 50 million tonnes in India by the end of this decade. So I think that, I would say, the combination of the value unlock in BPSL certainly enables us, as you rightly said, to expand faster, which we are doing. We have taken the Orissa project. We are doing a project in North of India for tinplate and substrate for GI and GL. And we will be able to fast track our other brownfield expansions as we go along into this decade. So we are on track. I think we would be adding capacities in line to meet the India demand.

Sumangal Nevatia

analyst
#13

And sir, can I get your thoughts on...

Operator

operator
#14

Sorry to interrupt, sir. We request you to please rejoin the queue if you have any further questions. Our next question comes from the line of Jashandeep Chadha from Nomura.

Jashandeep Singh Chadha

analyst
#15

Am I audible?

Operator

operator
#16

Yes, you are audible, sir.

Jashandeep Singh Chadha

analyst
#17

Sir, my first question is on the lines of you are expecting 7% to 9% Y-o-Y volume growth or apparent steel consumption growth. Just wanted to understand if we go one step deeper, from which segments are you expecting majority or which segments will lead this demand? We understand that the GDP is growing and overall steel consumption will go up. But specific to JSW, internally also, which segment do you believe will lead that growth? Is it the autos, industrial, retail, I mean, or even any other segment that you see? Just wanted to get your view on how the demand will be going ahead?

Jayant Acharya

executive
#18

So we are seeing the growth across sectors. If you were to really look at the India story now, I think you'll see the growth across your construction and infrastructure, you see good growth in the commercial real estate. We are seeing good growth in industrial and now post the GST announcement, especially in the consumption side, automotive appliances, the other area is the renewable energy. And I think you -- by and large, I think we are seeing it across sectors.

Jashandeep Singh Chadha

analyst
#19

Understood, sir. Sir, my related question to this will be, has the intensity of flat products in construction, retail, real estate sector, has it gone up in the last couple of years? And along with that, I just wanted to understand also the new capacity that you have announced, what will be the CapEx intensity of that and the product mix, if you can?

Jayant Acharya

executive
#20

The new capacity, which we have announced will be flat steel. It will be a 5 million tonne facility with a hot strip mill and steel-melting capability and blast furnace. The steel-melting capability will be for roughly about 6.5 million to 7 million tonnes. It has potential to grow. So the hot strip mill can ultimately be expanded once the second blast furnace is taken up to 6 million tonnes itself. Your second question about the intensity of flat steel in construction. The intensity of flat steel in construction has been increasing gradually. Globally, flat steel is used in construction through steel-based plated constructions. And we are seeing that slowly catch up in India. Now steel buildings or steel and glass buildings are coming up in India. They are safer. They are faster to construct and unlocks value in terms of time. So it is catching up, although at a slower pace than internationally. But we are looking at this space, improving the flat steel consumption in the construction and the infrastructure. Infrastructure, also the bridges, which are coming up, are also adding to the flat steel consumption. People are now looking at steel columns, steel supporting infrastructure for the bridges because it is able to finish the bridge faster. So yes, it is going up in terms of intensity.

Jashandeep Singh Chadha

analyst
#21

And also, if you can tell me the CapEx for the new capacity, sorry, if I missed it.

Jayant Acharya

executive
#22

INR 31,600 crores. This is also building in some of the infrastructure for the expansion of the second phase.

Jashandeep Singh Chadha

analyst
#23

Understood. So the next phase of expansion will be at a lower intensity per tonne?

Jayant Acharya

executive
#24

Correct.

Operator

operator
#25

Our next question is from the line of Rahul Gupta from Morgan Stanley.

Rahul Gupta

analyst
#26

So my first question is, given strong volumes during the quarter as well, now your domestic volume guidance of 28.2 million tonne would imply flat volumes on a year-on-year basis for 4Q. Now how should we look at your 4Q volumes with respect to that? Would you revise your sales guidance? That's my number one question.

Jayant Acharya

executive
#27

So I think from a sales guidance point of view, we are maintaining our guidance of 29.2 million tonnes, production guidance also at 30.5 million tonne is more or less on track. Going forward, in the next year, as the BF-3 capacity unlock happens, we will be able to add to our available capacities and that would further increase the sales from all our assets.

Rahul Gupta

analyst
#28

Okay. So am I reading it right that your India volumes would be flat, assuming you don't change your guidance?

Jayant Acharya

executive
#29

Why do you say flat?

Rahul Gupta

analyst
#30

On year-on-year basis.

Jayant Acharya

executive
#31

Okay. So the inventory liquidation, probably you're not counting. So the potential -- so we did an unlock of inventory of 300,000 tonnes in the last quarter. In the current quarter also, we have...

Rahul Gupta

analyst
#32

No, I meant for fourth quarter. So if I look at the fourth quarter...

Jayant Acharya

executive
#33

I'm looking at the fourth quarter. I'm saying we liquidated inventory in quarter 3. We are looking at some inventory liquidation in quarter 4 as well. So from a guidance perspective, we had a sales of 7.64 million tonne last quarter. Our guidance is that we will be able to meet 29.2 million tonnes. So maybe similar with respect to quarter 3, quarter 4, if that's what you're asking. From an Indian operations point of view, we will be slightly higher. But on an overall basis, it will not be very different.

Rahul Gupta

analyst
#34

Got it. Got it. Now if I look at the detailed CapEx table that you have shared on Slide 39, can you help us break down the mining CapEx and also value-added CapEx a bit further? Thanks for highlighting Mozambique and the downstream CapEx separately, but can you help us with more details, what all come into this?

Jayant Acharya

executive
#35

I think the details, the investor team can explain, but you're talking about the capacity -- consolidated capacity update, right? That's what we have given you in that slide.

Rahul Gupta

analyst
#36

It's the CapEx guidance for the next 5 years, the amount of CapEx. But yes, okay, I'll get that offline.

Jayant Acharya

executive
#37

What we are -- yes, what we are trying to say is that we will be spending this INR 100,000 crores over the next 4 to 5 years. We will give you the breakup year-wise in our annual board results in May. But roughly 4 to 5 years, you can spread it equally, it will be a little higher in the next year -- next 2 years and then slowly go down.

Rahul Gupta

analyst
#38

So I was actually looking for breakdown of mining and value-added, but I can take that offline. One final question. If we look at realizations, on a reported basis, Q-on-Q, it has been much better. Now adjusted for JVML, did share of value-added products improve quarter-on-quarter? Or am I missing anything over here?

Jayant Acharya

executive
#39

So we have been reporting in the last few quarters, we have been giving you the value-added numbers without the JVML. This time, including JVML, the value-added product mix is 61%. Excluding JVML, it is 67%.

Operator

operator
#40

Our next question is from the line of Amit Murarka from Axis Capital.

Amit Murarka

analyst
#41

So firstly, a bookkeeping question. In the quarter, what was iron ore sales that you made?

Jayant Acharya

executive
#42

Just one second.

Swayam Saurabh

executive
#43

What's your other question? Maybe we answer that first while we get...

Jayant Acharya

executive
#44

It is about 0.13 million tonne.

Amit Murarka

analyst
#45

Okay. And what was it in the last quarter? Why I'm asking that is because like the revenues doesn't seem to have gone down in terms of the realization decline that was expected.

Swayam Saurabh

executive
#46

Indeed. So you are seeing the stand-alone numbers, right?

Amit Murarka

analyst
#47

Yes, yes, I'm looking at the stand-alone number.

Swayam Saurabh

executive
#48

Yes. So we'll give you this input offline. It's primarily iron ore sales.

Amit Murarka

analyst
#49

In Q3, you mean?

Swayam Saurabh

executive
#50

Yes.

Amit Murarka

analyst
#51

Okay, sure. And also, when I look at JVML numbers, again, over there, the realization seems to have been down. So is it like some sale of some semis that has happened over there? Like what is really the reason?

Jayant Acharya

executive
#52

No, basically, see, we look at JVML and Vijayanagar from an operations point of view as a combined decision-making process. We have certain advantages in JVML on the cost side. We have some advantages in JVML on the state tax side. So we have a state tax advantage even if you sell outside the state. So therefore, outside state movement like to North, we prefer to do from there, which is a higher freight incidence. And therefore, you see a lower realization, but that enables us to overall optimize our total Vijayanagar blend because the other units is able to supply to Karnataka, which has got a tax advantage in Karnataka. JVML is able to leverage the sales to other locations where we get the tax advantage.

Amit Murarka

analyst
#53

Okay. Okay. Understood. And just also...

Operator

operator
#54

Amit, sorry to interrupt. May we request you to please rejoin the queue for further questions. Our next question comes from the line of Vikash Singh from ICICI Securities.

Vikash Singh

analyst
#55

Sir, just wanted to understand our stance on the CBAM. What is our exposure currently on the European side? And any strategies which we are going to tackle in terms of the -- whatever exports which we are doing to the Europe?

Arun Maheshwari

executive
#56

I'm Arun Maheshwari. Per se, CBAM has impacted overall the entire exports happening to Europe. So it is not that it's impacting as JSW alone or India alone. However, the impact is not...

Operator

operator
#57

Pardon me. Sorry to interrupt, sir. May we request you to please come a little closer to the mic when you're speaking, sir?

Arun Maheshwari

executive
#58

Yes. Sorry. It's better now?

Operator

operator
#59

Yes, this is better. Please go ahead.

Arun Maheshwari

executive
#60

So I would say that the CBAM impact is not in particular for India or JSW. It has been impacting all the exporters who have been doing to Europe. The overall real-time impact assessment is still yet to come out because it's still very new, people are still understanding the impact. However, I would say our export has been quite sizable component has been into Europe. But the way -- because if the impact is to overall European exporters, then it will find its own way how to export it out over there. So I don't think that it will be having a bigger impact on us as a company.

Vikash Singh

analyst
#61

Any figures which you wouldn't like to put in terms of exposure in terms of tonnage, annual basis?

Arun Maheshwari

executive
#62

Not really so. See, basically, we have been doing somewhere around 1.2 million, 1.3 million tonne kind of exports into Europe. But the way the markets are shaping up in other geographies also, probably we can consume our tonnages over there. At the same time, India market is also growing much faster. So if you see year-on-year, our export component in the overall sales has been dropping. So I don't see that this will have a major impact on our sales volume into exports.

Jayant Acharya

executive
#63

So from a percentage point of view, just to answer your question, Europe as a percentage of our total exports is going down. Asia, Middle East, other countries are picking up. So therefore, some part is already getting mitigated. We will understand the guidelines fully as and when they come, and we'll be able to give you maybe some more color as we go along. But some readjustment in the prices in Europe also is something which will take place. So let us understand the market once the full guidelines play out.

Vikash Singh

analyst
#64

Sir, my second question pertains to our CapEx plan in Odisha. The INR 6,300 crore per million tonne for a greenfield plant seems to be pretty low. So what -- actually, this is at some of the brownfield plant probably is expanding more than that. So what differential things we are doing in this or there is a scope or a risk of further enhancing this CapEx as we progress?

Jayant Acharya

executive
#65

So first of all, I would just like to say that from a CapEx point of view, if you see our Dolvi plant expansion, which we have just undertaken, which is on, is actually specific investment is even lower than this. This is slightly higher because of being a green plant. The other reason is that we are doing this plant in a modular fashion. So we already had announced the pellet plant and some enabling infrastructure before that. That is something which is happening parallelly. But even then, if you look at the plant, once this INR 31,600 crores also includes some enabling infrastructure for phase 2 expansion. So when you look at a 10 million tonne expansion, including the next phase, I think our CapEx cost will be further competitive, if you were to compare with others. How we are able to do it, I think over time, that's the project expertise which JSW has developed. And we are able to do specific investment costs lower over time.

Vikash Singh

analyst
#66

So there is no risk of overrunning in this CapEx as of now?

Jayant Acharya

executive
#67

We don't see so.

Operator

operator
#68

Our next question comes from the line of Parthiv Jhonsa from Anand Rathi.

Parthiv Jhonsa

analyst
#69

I hope I'm audible. So my first question is pertaining to the CapEx. You have mark almost about INR 1 lakh crore in the next 4 to 5 years, coupled with this INR 80,000 crores kind of net debt. And as mentioned earlier on the call, you expect the CapEx to be high in the first couple of years. Do you think that this will load your balance sheet despite receiving the money from BPSL?

Jayant Acharya

executive
#70

No. We do not think it will load our balance sheet. I think from a ratio point of view, we will remain financially prudent while we invest. And from our perspective, I think we are quite well placed to be able to manage these expansions while we keep our ratios in control. You will see the additional volume from BF-3, the full ramp-up of JVML, the new capacities from Dolvi, which will come in, in phase 3. All these will generate additional cash flows which will contribute to the internal accruals, which we'll be able to spend for the CapEx. So from that perspective, we are fine. We don't see any challenge.

Parthiv Jhonsa

analyst
#71

No, we definitely do agree that...

Swayam Saurabh

executive
#72

Just to add to this, BPSL transaction, once it's concluded, would also add significant new cash, which you have to take into account while plotting the numbers.

Parthiv Jhonsa

analyst
#73

We do agree that receiving BPSL would definitely help in the next couple of quarters, but then Dolvi is still down the line. And plus we have taken up additional 5 million tonne CapEx. So I just want to -- and plus, you have just mentioned a couple of minutes back that in the first 2 years, the debt -- I mean the CapEx will be much higher. So assuming it's about INR 25,000 crores, INR 30,000-odd crores, which is basically net off against what we received from BPSL in the immediate term. Do you think that this INR 80,000 crores of net debt can go to, say, INR 1 lakh crores? Or is there any threshold leverage what you expect?

Swayam Saurabh

executive
#74

No. So we are right now below 3 net debt to EBITDA. We reported 2.91. If you look at INR 10,000 crore on its totality over 5 years -- 4 to 5 years, we are talking about INR 20,000 crores, INR 25,000 crores; in certain years, it can go up; in certain years, it will come down, which is not very different from the CapEx we have been historically doing. You add BPSL cash in the mix, and you will realize that perhaps it's not as big a problem as it looks like.

Parthiv Jhonsa

analyst
#75

All right. All right. Just my next question is again on Europe and...

Operator

operator
#76

Parthiv, sorry, we request you to please rejoin the queue if you have any further questions.

Parthiv Jhonsa

analyst
#77

That's just the first question. Can I ask second?

Operator

operator
#78

Okay. Please go ahead, sir.

Parthiv Jhonsa

analyst
#79

Considering you export 11% volumes, and like I mentioned about 1.2 million, 1.3 million tonne goes to Europe, considering CBAM, I know there are a lot of noise around CBAM, but have you given a thought by internal calculation based on your emission norms, what is the impact on a per tonne basis? Is there a number which you have finalized?

Jayant Acharya

executive
#80

No. So we basically -- from a standpoint of exports, I would basically request you not to take right now any numbers because, one, is that the domestic demand is going up. If I were to look at incrementally this year, we are expected to add about 11 million tonnes in India. Roughly, we'll close at about 163 million tonnes of demand. Next year, even if you were to look at a growth at about roughly 8%, we'll be 176 million tonnes. This incremental demand, which is being created in India, we feel that this will provide ample opportunity for us to be using our capacities within the country. The need for exports will gradually also reduce. Therefore, the export moderation will happen in general, and that we will basically take a call which area to reduce. With respect to your question on CBAM calculation, I think those are in process. I wouldn't like to give you any number right now because we haven't really finalized anything at this stage.

Parthiv Jhonsa

analyst
#81

But as per the latest circular, it is just purely based on Scope 1, right, if I'm not mistaken, or even -- because they are based on direct emissions, if I'm not mistaken, right? Is the understanding correct?

Jayant Acharya

executive
#82

Yes, but -- yes. So there are different technologies, different numbers. Asset to asset, there is a difference. So my emission level in Vijayanagar will be different from Dolvi level. So that's why I'm saying that there are different moving parts, so let us wait for some more clarity once we do it.

Operator

operator
#83

Our next question comes from the line of Satyadeep Jain from AMBIT Capital.

Satyadeep Jain

analyst
#84

Just -- I know too many questions on CBAM. Just one more question on this. Has -- there has been a 2-year transition period. So I just wanted to confirm because one other company mentioned this that none of the Indian companies have got their emissions verified as of now. Just clarifying, there has been no verifier identified. You've not -- have you or have you not got emissions verified so far? And is there still ambiguity whether the verified emissions will be for a company group level? Or will they allow plant-specific emissions? Just a clarity on this.

Jayant Acharya

executive
#85

No, we are in the process of getting the verifications done. The CBAM will be asset-wise. So basically, it will be location plant-wise, not for the company as one.

Satyadeep Jain

analyst
#86

Okay. And how long will this verification process? When do you expect this to get done?

Jayant Acharya

executive
#87

I think gradually. I think the -- any exports which happened today in the year '26 will basically be -- you would have to give them a certificate after the end of the year, the importer will have to look at it and take a certificate from a verified source, which we will be able to provide to them. And based on that, the importers on record will have to pay the CBAM differential whatever at that point of time. So that will happen sometime in the beginning of '27 for the year '26.

Satyadeep Jain

analyst
#88

Fair enough. And secondly, on the CapEx, just on the Dolvi, first of all, can you remind us how much you've spent so far? I think initial expectation for this was about [ INR 19,000 crores, INR 20,000 crores ]. I just want to see what have you spent so far? How much is left? And when you look at Odisha, in the configuration, how much CPP -- when you look at power sourcing, how much captive are you looking at because you're also looking at increasing renewable penetration, WHRS and captive configuration for the new 5 million tonne?

Jayant Acharya

executive
#89

So on Dolvi, we are on track. I would not be able to give you figures exactly how much we have spent right now, but we are on track for our expenditure. The total cost of the project, including some additional CapEx, which we had declared during the last Board meetings, I think is close to INR 20,800 crores, INR 20,900 crores. We are on track for that expansion. Odisha, you're asking with respect to the power?

Satyadeep Jain

analyst
#90

Correct.

Jayant Acharya

executive
#91

So we would be putting up capacity for power, which we would require. In addition to that, we would be buying something from the grid. So it's a combination which we would be doing. But let's say that some -- a major part will be from our own captive and some will be drawn from the grid and other sources.

Satyadeep Jain

analyst
#92

How much megawatt of capacity will you be setting up for this 5 million tonne on your own -- INR 31,600 crores includes how much captive power plant?

Jayant Acharya

executive
#93

Yes, we have that detail. We can give it to you offline. It's about 340, 350 megawatt, but we will give it you offline.

Operator

operator
#94

Our next question is from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec.

Ritesh Shah

analyst
#95

Sir, 3 questions. First is, sir, overall on capital allocation, where does the 51% stake in JSW Realty? And I think with respect to Saffron Resources, it does indicate there's a land bank. Where do these variables fit in the overall scheme of things? That's one. Second question is on safeguards. How do you see the risk of circumventions and potentially higher volumes from Japan and Korea limiting our ability to raise prices? If you could highlight some numbers on parity math, that would be great. And third question is, we have 2 blocks, correct me if I'm wrong over here, Ajgaon and Surjagad in Maharashtra. What are our plans over here? And is there any probability of MSMC granting any leases to any company on linkage basis or something which can potentially reduce the cost curve for say any company? Those are 3 questions, sir.

Swayam Saurabh

executive
#96

So Ritesh, Swayam here. I'll take the first question, and thanks for asking. Our capital allocation principles remain intact. Capital goes to what is core to us, which is steelmaking. Saffron land acquisition is earmarked for a potential steel facility in the future, and there will be no other use for that. On the JSW Realty deal, I mean, we have not spelled out the details, but what we require is essentially office space as we are expanding as a company. And what we will get out of this is a very lucrative return in terms of cost invested in an office space. This is our whole intention of being in that deal, and there is nothing more to that.

Jayant Acharya

executive
#97

Second question was on safeguard, Ritesh?

Ritesh Shah

analyst
#98

Yes. Sir, effectiveness of safeguards, risk on circumvention imports probably from Japan and Korea are restricting our ability to increase prices.

Jayant Acharya

executive
#99

Yes. No, the safeguard is certainly -- even if you look at Japan and Korea, 12% safeguard is certainly very helpful. We expect that to limit unfair trade to a large extent. It still allows us scope to increase the price. And along with depreciation of the currency, I think it leaves room for some price improvement during February and March. So that's something which we will see. Also keep in mind that the prices in India fell actually more. It came to a discount versus imports. So that's something which anyway has to come back to a sensible level. From the iron ore point of view, I think I'll request Arun to respond on Maharashtra and Surjagad.

Arun Maheshwari

executive
#100

So we are -- we have a concession available with us, which we are exploring all the ways to how do we make it operationalized in the coming years. So the work is on for that one.

Ritesh Shah

analyst
#101

And the last question, sir, any probability of state government granting out leases on linkage basis or anything of that sort?

Jayant Acharya

executive
#102

Where?

Ritesh Shah

analyst
#103

In Maharashtra.

Arun Maheshwari

executive
#104

No, nothing to our knowledge as of now.

Jayant Acharya

executive
#105

Nothing so far.

Operator

operator
#106

Our next question comes from the line of Raashi Chopra from Citigroup.

Raashi Chopra

analyst
#107

You already addressed some of the pricing question, but effectively, in this quarter, what was the realization change that you witnessed without the mix impact?

Jayant Acharya

executive
#108

There was a drop in realization in this quarter. I think the market -- if you were to look at the market price, for example, if I were to take an example of a hot-rolled coil, the market dropped quarter-on-quarter by about INR 2,200 per tonne. We, as a blend, were able to reduce the impact of this through value-added mix, which we have -- our value-added mix was the ever highest, as I mentioned. So our drop was close to INR 1,400-odd per tonne on the overall mix of the JSW Steel drop.

Raashi Chopra

analyst
#109

Understood. And as of now, the increase that you mentioned in December and January is about 3,500 with further scope for upside?

Jayant Acharya

executive
#110

Yes. Yes, 1,500-odd, I think, in December, and about 2,000-odd in January.

Raashi Chopra

analyst
#111

Got it. And on the cost side, like you already gave iron ore as well as the coking coal cost, but on a blended basis, how did the costs move sequentially?

Jayant Acharya

executive
#112

Sequentially from quarter 2 to quarter 3?

Raashi Chopra

analyst
#113

Yes.

Jayant Acharya

executive
#114

Quarter 2 to quarter 3, as we said, $5 on account of the price, there was an impact of coking coal. There were some related costs related to the shutdown of BF-3, which came in, and there were some shutdowns in Salem, which came in. So from a cost perspective, we had an impact of close to INR 500 to INR 600 per tonne.

Raashi Chopra

analyst
#115

And what was the captive iron ore proportion?

Jayant Acharya

executive
#116

Last quarter, I think, 33%.

Operator

operator
#117

Our next question is from the line of Ashish Jain from Macquarie India.

Ashish Jain

analyst
#118

Sir, my first question is on the Orissa expansion, given the location, are we planning to do from a technology-wise or otherwise to be export compliant and low carbon? Or is it like the standard mill we set up with a focus on India market?

Jayant Acharya

executive
#119

So the location is very conducive for exports, primarily because we are on the port. And we would be looking at -- the product mix would be tailored to look at some of the export requirements as well. From a renewable energy or from gas utilization point of view to reduce the carbon emissions, I think those discussions are ongoing. We are trying to see if we are able to get in some gas and reduce the -- yes, whatever the best available technologies which are available will be used, including the blast furnace. So today, the technologies in blast furnaces have also got very advanced in terms of oxygen injection or other [ coco ] and gas usage or the other one, which we have used just now in Dolvi, what was that? Dehumidification. These are essentially reducing your carbon footprint. We are going to be using all available technologies even in the blast furnace to reduce the normal level which a blast furnace has.

Ashish Jain

analyst
#120

Right. And sir, also, given Dolvi location-wise is much -- hello?

Jayant Acharya

executive
#121

Yes.

Ashish Jain

analyst
#122

Sir, sir, given Dolvi location-wise is more conducive to export to the West, the latest line we are setting up, will it have materially lower carbon emission again from a technology point of view? And does it make it easier for us once Dolvi ramps up to access some of these Europe -- some of the export markets?

Arun Maheshwari

executive
#123

Yes, talking about Dolvi, you see any new addition is coming up with the latest of the technologies in those blast furnaces. So definitely, the carbon emission in the new production line will be slightly better than the existing ones. There's absolutely no doubt. Our...

Jayant Acharya

executive
#124

See, the phase 3, which is being there at Dolvi will also have a blast furnace with all the best available technology, what was being explained for Paradip. So overall blast furnace will have a less emission in terms of gases. So -- and then this is CSP. So overall energy spend for production will be quite low. So our asset at Dolvi emissions are lower than normally other locations. That is one. Second thing, I think when you're looking at supplies to Europe or you're looking at low-emission supplies, we have already communicated to you that we are looking at an asset for green steel or low-emission steel through the electric arc furnace, natural gas, renewable energy route at Salav, which will take care of the requirement for anybody who has low emission carbon requirement.

Operator

operator
#125

Our next question comes from the line of Kirtan Mehta from Baroda BNP Paribas Mutual Fund.

Kirtan Mehta

analyst
#126

One more follow-up on the CBAM. Basically, the way you said is our emission will get certified till end of FY '27 or so. So in the meanwhile, would we be willing to sort of do the exports, assuming the emissions at our end or sort of give a guarantee to buyer to compensate for the impact? How would it transpire during the period when the emissions are not certified basically?

Arun Maheshwari

executive
#127

No, one thing we almost know about it that CBAM impact is overall for everyone, similar impact. So Europe will -- prices in Europe will go up to that extent of the CBAM impact anyway. So while we are still assessing what would be the real impact of the CBAM, while the policies are still being understood by everyone, by the importers as well as exporters. So eventually, Europe will remain a market for the people despite having CBAM because overall cost in Europe will go up. So this is where we look at it. We are waiting for this entire policy coming out in understanding. And thereafter, we will take a call on that.

Kirtan Mehta

analyst
#128

Okay. Second question was regarding the Odisha plant, have we also finalized the downstream plant for the product? Or would we be announcing that separately beyond this CapEx of INR 31,600 crores?

Jayant Acharya

executive
#129

As of now, this is up to the hot strip mill. We have not yet announced any downstream plant at Odisha. Currently, what we have announced is the downstream plant in the north of India, which we have mentioned about thin plate and galvanized and [ Galvalume ] capabilities for our color-coated lines. We will look at the Orissa downstream at a later stage.

Kirtan Mehta

analyst
#130

Sure, sir. Just one last question, if I can include. We also had a plan for a couple of EAFs, so is that getting shifted with the announcement of this plant?

Jayant Acharya

executive
#131

The Kadapa project, which basically is an electric arc furnace project is -- we just announced last quarter. That has capacity to expand as well if we require. But keep in mind that electric arc furnaces in India doesn't have really scrap. So electric arc furnaces depends on scrap or on high-grade DRI, which basically relies on imported iron ore. So you effectively have to do some mix which is viable from an India standpoint. But what we are doing at Salav is again going to be electric arc furnace based, DRI-based production. Kadapa also, it's electric arc furnace based to 1 million. And we already have electric arc furnaces currently operating at various locations.

Operator

operator
#132

Our next question is from the line of Sumangal Nevatia from Kotak Securities.

Sumangal Nevatia

analyst
#133

I wanted your outlook on iron ore. So this year, if you see imports have increased and we've also imported. I wanted to know, is it strategic or is it some quality issue? And also when we look at 50% being met through captive, for the remaining 50% over the next 5, 6 years, are we seeing domestic availability or there should -- there might be some shortages which will have to be then imported?

Arun Maheshwari

executive
#134

So iron ore import is largely because of grade availability in India is very poor. It's going down every year. So that's why we had gone for a higher grade of imports of iron ore. So it is more of a combination requirement in the production usage. At the same time, availability of iron ore in different geographies are different. So we have to consider that while we take our buying decisions. So it may not remain uniform every year. But whenever we see this opportunity coming up, we would like to shift our security base accordingly.

Jayant Acharya

executive
#135

It's basically for blending, for especially larger blast furnaces which requires some improved grids. And we'll continue to look at it and take the call.

Sumangal Nevatia

analyst
#136

Mr. Acharya, what is our medium-term view? Is there -- for the remaining 50%, which is market for us over the next 5 years, will we have enough domestic iron ore or you see a domestic shortage increasing over years?

Jayant Acharya

executive
#137

No, I don't think so.

Arun Maheshwari

executive
#138

Yes. I think the government is also having a lot of policy intervention coming in, and they are ensuring that the iron ore availability is not compromised in line with the national steel policy what they are targeting. So iron ore availability will be maintained with all the initiatives not even government is taking and the way the private miners are also trying to increase their capacity or production.

Jayant Acharya

executive
#139

So new mines will also come up for auction apart from unlocking mines which have been held up due to various reasons. So we do not envisage shortage in India as we go along, but we may have to put facilities for beneficiation or value addition into pellets as the case may be. But yes, we have ample resources in India. So from an availability point of view, we don't see a concern.

Operator

operator
#140

We have no further questions, ladies and gentlemen. I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments. Over to you, sir.

Jayant Acharya

executive
#141

So thank you very much for the time. Just to reiterate that we look forward to a good quarter 4, stronger volumes based on a seasonally strong demand in quarter 4. Margins are likely to be better with prices recovering and offsetting some of the raw material price. I think from the next year's perspective, the BF-3 will be up and running from April onwards, and we'll be well positioned to meet the requirements in India from next year onwards. Our capacity in India will be close to 36 million tonne after the BF-3 expansion is finished. Thank you, and all the best.

Ashwin Bajaj

executive
#142

Thank you, everyone. Please reach out to us if you have any further questions. Bye-bye.

Operator

operator
#143

Thank you. On behalf of JSW Steel Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you all for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.

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