Jumbo S.A. (BELA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I'm Constantinos, your Chorus Call operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Jumbo conference call and live webcast to present and discuss the Full Year 2024 Financial Results. [Operator Instructions] The conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Apostolos-Evangelos Vakakis, Chairman of the Board of Directors; Mr. Polys Polycarpou, Chief Financial Officer; and Ms. Karamitsoli Amalia, Head of Investor Relations. Ms. Karamitsoli, you may now proceed.

Thank you, Constantinos. Thank you all for joining today's presentation of Jumbo Group's results for the financial year of 2024, our performance in Q1 2025 and an overview of our strategic road map going forward. Let's begin with our financial performance in 2024. Jumbo delivered solid growth across key metrics. Sales increased by 6% year-on-year, reaching EUR 1.15 billion. Gross margin remained fairly stable at 55.6%. EBITDA rose by 7% to EUR 425 million. Adjusted EBITDA was at EUR 414 million, up 4%, and net profit increased by 6% to EUR 320 million. Our net cash position stood at EUR 372.5 million. 2024 was another year of significant capital return to shareholders. Total cash distribution reached EUR 218 million. We also executed a share buyback program, acquiring almost 940,000 shares at an average price of EUR 25.21 per share, investing almost EUR 24 million. These shares will be canceled at the next AGM. In 2024, we expanded with 3 new hyper stores, 2 in Romania, the 1 in Oradea, actually the second one in the city and 1 in Bucharest, the fifth store in the city and 1 in Cyprus. We also reopened 2 stores in Greece that were closed post Daniel storm, the 1 in Karditsa and 1 in Larissa. With the opening of 1 more store in Romania in March of 2025 in the city of Timisoara, which is the second one in the city, we now operate 89 stores across the 4 countries. We had a strong start in 2025, where in Q1, sales were up by 8% year-on-year. Of course, the Carnival this year have celebrated earlier. In the first quarter, also Jumbo paid an extraordinary distribution of EUR 63.5 million. It should be noted that since the beginning of our share buyback program, Jumbo has invested over EUR 43 million, acquiring 1.7 million shares. Looking ahead, we are planning to open 1 store in Greece every 3 years. In Cyprus, we will open 2 stores in the coming 5 years, while in Bulgaria, we will open 1 new store in the next 2 to 3 years. Of course, we will continue with our expansion in Romania with a base of 1 to 2 store openings per year. To support our growth, we are also investing in logistics. Two new distribution centers are under development. The first one is Thessaloniki, servicing the north of Greece in Bulgaria and the second one in Oinofyta supporting the rest of Greece and exports. The investment will be almost EUR 60 million and will be completed within the next 3 to 5 years. The operation of the DC centers are expected to boost efficiency. At this point, I would like to hand over the call to Mr. Vakakis, who will be happy to address your questions, and thank you very much for your attention.

Good afternoon from me too.

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Bourazanis Marios with Eurobank Equities.

Just 2 quick questions from me. I'll start with the first one. So given the recent escalation in U.S. tariffs that were imposed on Chinese imports, I was just wondering if you see any tangible opportunities emerging for Jumbo, perhaps in the form of maybe more favorable sourcing terms or pricing leverage with Chinese suppliers?

This is one question or 2 questions.

My first question, and then I will follow up with another one.

Okay. The answer is yes, and it's common sense. But having said that, we are at the beginning of a huge rebalancing of markets, supply chains, countries. And as a result of that, we are just standing behind watching the fight of the elephants. So yes, but did I answer your question?

Yes, that's pretty clear. Yes, I was just wondering, given that this is a continuation of the first question, just that do you see that's more -- an impact more in the form of some product inflows that may be redirected to Europe or some other markets? How would you see this playing out given the trade dynamics?

All other things equal, talking up to the moment that I speak, what is developing is theoretically a favorable environment for our company. But having said that, one has to be extremely cautious and not to dream and then end up with a nightmare. So as I said before, we are at the beginning of a huge rebalance going through, which involves products, currencies, countries, procedures, transport costs, wars, peace agreements and so on. Too early to say.

Understood. Okay. And also, if I can follow up with a second question, if I may. I just wanted to ask if you could elaborate a bit more on your thinking around the dividend policy going forward, especially in the context of a strong net cash position and robust cash flows. Should investors maybe expect additional dividends this year?

If things go our way, and this is a big if, our recommendation to the general assembly would be not to pay dividends, but to utilize the funds to take advantage of a situation developing in our favor and leave dividends as a last resort when other options more profitable are not being offered anymore. But as I said, I was born a pessimist. And as a result of that, I'm not going to make a decision before really seeing something settling down. The only thing that I would ask is flexibility from the system.

The next question comes from the line of Nekrasov Maksim with Citi.

Maybe just a follow-up on the dividend question. Maybe you can elaborate on what ways of utilizing the cash position you may consider? And also on the buybacks, do you plan to continue a buyback program? And the current share price seems to be slightly above the maximum. Will you adjust the maximum price?

There's absolutely no desire to adjust prices upwards. We would be more than happy to adjust prices downwards and pass theoretical gains to our customers in order to consolidate our future because what we will do cannot be different than what our competitors will do. So we always have to be very careful not to create a gap. So our competitors can enter and steal some of the business that we already have. So definitely, as things stand today, April 17 -- no.

29.

29, April 29, we have no intention to do anything with upward tendency of prices. So if we have the same returns or better returns, this will be employed to take advantage of other alternatives, which is strategic buying of inventory, making use of the strengthening of the euro by hedging. And as a last resort will be the dividend policy, not as a first resort. And of course, if the market goes up, we will accelerate the buying of -- the program of buying share.

Understood. That's quite clear. And if I may follow up on margins. So last year, you talked a lot about higher transportation costs and then the risk to margins, but gross margin ended up very strong for the full year. So what would help you to achieve that profitability? And what factors would you consider as key for the margin this year? So basically, how we also should think about margins for this year?

Again, I want to stress for one more time that we are going through a restructuring process of worldwide dimensions. So questions of this nature are premature. If we look at it statically, as we stand today, 29th of April, our gross margin worries seem to have subsided because the currency has strengthened, the transport cost has been stabilized, and definitely, Chinese are not asking more than before for their products since they are not very sure whether they would sell their products to the states or not. But as I said, it is really, really, really arrogant to believe that it is the end of a story and not the beginning of a story. So let's wait and see.

[Operator Instructions] There are no further audio questions at this time, and we will now move on to our -- excuse me, we do have a follow-up question from Mr. Nekrasov Maksim with Citi.

Yes. Another follow-up question on your opening guidance. So this year, you opened 1 store in Romania and provided long-term guidance. Do you -- actually for this year, do you plan to open more new stores? Or it will be just 1 store? And what CapEx should we expect this year?

We have already preannounced that most of our CapEx will go towards infrastructure since it seems to -- we are growing comfortably enough, and we need further infrastructure to support our current growth. Our desire is to increase the foothold that we have in Romania. So if an opportunity arises, we will open a second store this year. And on average, our desire is to keep opening a couple of stores per year in Romania.

Ladies and gentlemen, we will now move on to our webcast questions. The first webcast question comes from Iakovos Kourtesis with Piraeus Securities. And I quote, can you please provide us the estimated CapEx for the full year 2025?

It will hover between EUR 60 million and EUR 70 million.

The next webcast question is a follow-up question from Iakovos Kourtesis. And I quote, is it possible to provide us the performance for the group and per geographical region for the 4-month period?"

We have already provided that in our monthly updates. So one can see it in our site.

The next question is, again, a follow-up question from Iakovos Kourtesis. And I quote, any guidance for the full year 2025?

As I said, we are going through a rebalance of huge dimensions. So one really needs to be careful because he may mislead somebody positively or negatively. If we look at in the micro world of today, as we stand today, theoretically, we could have guided, let's say, a relatively positive picture, but the judgment is that this may prove misleading. And as a result of that, we have preannounced that unless we have a reading of the first half of the year, so we can rebalance ourselves the early Easter and the prolonged summer period of selling goods, we would shy away from outguessing the consumer. It is no secret that the story of Greece still has a positive, let's say, denominator. But Greece is Greece and one always needs to be careful.

The next webcast question comes from Luca Orsini with One Investments. And I quote, can you give us an update on Israel? Can you also comment on freight rate?

Can I comment on?

Freight rate.

Freight rate.

Freight rates. Yes.

Freight rates. Okay. Israel against logic is doing better than expected. And I'm saying that not because the GDP is not double of the Greek one or double of any of the countries that we are currently operating, but because they have an ongoing war. So for us, it is difficult to understand what exactly goes on. But if we want to make, let's say, a base uninformed judgment, Israel is a success story and can only go better if the war gets out of the way. Regarding freight rates, the rates have been stabilized except against wild fluctuations of last year, but they still reflect a cost of going through Africa. And it is fair to expect that if this additional trip is taken out of the picture, freight can improve further in our favor. But as I said, it's only a part of the restructuring going through or the rebalancing going through. And therefore, one can -- one has to see, wait and see.

The next webcast question comes from [ Johannes Schwarz with MSC Invest ]. And I quote, is it also fair to assume that a weakening dollar is an advantage for you?

It is more than fair. It's a blessing.

The next webcast question comes from Dimitra Manifava with Kathimerini. And I quote, could you give us more information about the franchising in Moldavia. When will it start? How many stores will your new partner plan to open?

No, honestly, I didn't know where Moldavia was. I found out when one of our franchisees asked for the license to extend its operation there with a new store. Since Jumbo has no desire to involve itself directly to any country which is not part of the [ AEC ], we have granted this license for this thing to happen, although I have to worry people that we are close to capacity levels because of the growing better than expected of Israel. And we don't want to unbalance our own subsidiaries at the expense of franchisees since we make relatively marginal profits on this exercise. So let's say that Moldavia as long as it is not an explosive growth and it stays in one store, even though it's the first store, and it's a big store, we believe that we can house this request.

The next webcast question comes from [indiscernible] with CPIC Limited. Can you comment Dutch retailer, Action pushing to CEE region, especially Romania? Is it a big threat?

Which company? Action.

Action, yes.

Every competitor is welcome. I'm a strong believer that you can only get better when you face more professional competitors. So that will time our arrogance. Yes, it is a challenge that we are ready to take.

The next webcast question comes from Clement Laithier with DNCA Finance. And I quote, which part of the growth in full year 2024 comes from online stores?

It hovers between 3% and 4%, the online activity. And since it's a complementary activity, it is not intended to grow strongly. So we will be happy if it stays as a percentage where it is.

Percentage of sales, not a percentage of growth. He asked about the percentage of...

It's the same. Percentage on the growth will stay intact together with the rest. This is our estimate.

The next webcast question comes from Georgi Raykov with Karoll Capital Management. And I quote, could you please elaborate on the strategic buying of inventory? What will be a strategic level of inventory compared to normalized level of inventory? Second part of the question -- would you like me to take it one by one or altogether?

One by one, please.

Okay.

So let's say the obvious that if the market conditions turn in our favor, we would prefer to have our money in product than in money terms because we should never forget that the inflationary threat has not evaporated. And that's why, as I said in the previous question, we are going to try to skip dividends of '24 in order to have the liquidity to allocate these resources into better opportunities in the near future. The key element of our strategy is that we have to be aggressive in how to make money and not so much aggressive in how to spend money or distribute money. Once we make money, then the second part is the easy part. Anybody can do it.

Second part of the question is what will be the conditions for you to go this way, significant pricing power over Chinese suppliers and creating shipping costs? That was the second part of the question.

Yes. As I said, any factor that it is an incentive of us to have more product and less money, it is something that we will think very seriously of this happening. Of course, there are limitations to that due to the warehousing capabilities. But all in all, I repeat, it is better to have hot product than inflationary money.

The next webcast question comes from [ Panos Gitas ]. And I quote, congratulations on the annual results. Well done. With low fares and weak dollar, what earnings do we expect in the revenues remain stable?

Really, the parameters of the end result of a company is not based on only these 2 factors. These factors seem to turn in our favor. But the remaining factors, how they will balance in the rebalancing, the ongoing rebalancing of the, let's say, of the world need to be clarified before we really make a call. That's why we said that we will skip making a call for the first half of the year. We have implied that we will make a call even in our micro world as we face the first half of the year because we will make all the necessary steps to secure this number. But in my view, it's too early at this stage to create, let's say, positive feelings or negative feelings. Let's stay observers of what goes on, although, strictly speaking, these 2 factors theoretically can improve our profitability, all other things being equal.

The next webcast question comes from Luca Orsini with One Investments. And I quote, are you currently locking in the lower transport costs writing longer-term contracts or you stay on the spot?

The idea is that we stay in an environment of semi spot, semi spot because if one makes calculated guess, the chances of a lower rate in the coming months is 51% and the chances of a higher rate is 49%.

The next webcast question comes from George Athanasakis with Pantelakis Securities. And I quote, how much money in euros million do you estimate you save by owning the majority of your stores instead of leasing them? That was the first part of the question.

Can you repeat again? How much...

How much money in euros do you estimate you save by owning the majority of your stores instead of leasing them?

Leasing a store would cost us, let's say, 7.5%, 7% on the estimated value of the store, while owning the store, especially if you are liquid, is 0%. I really don't fully understand the question.

Second part of the question is, I quote, I saw you announced your intent to sell some land plots in Bulgaria. What do you expect to make from their sale? And does this move mean your expansion in Bulgaria is put on the back-burner, excuse me?

If we can buy a store, an established store, of course, it's a much better proposition than building one. And as all, let's say, Balkanian countries are on a relatively crisis environment, it makes a lot of sense to buy somebody else's problem than try to develop your own problem.

The next webcast question comes from Nicolas Gourdain with Lexcor. And I quote, the Israel franchise is off to a remarkable start. Are there any other sizable countries where our franchise could open to?

In theory, yes. But the important thing is to have the infrastructure to support this move because otherwise, it may be at the expense of our core business. And so it is a fine-tuning and balancing act. We have a couple of propositions, some in Europe and some outside of Europe that we will exploit as the restructuring goes through. I am a little bit worried that people don't worry about the ongoing rebalance. I think that a lot of things can go wrong, and one needs to be very careful. So if I have a worry in my mind, it's not how to make more money, but how to consolidate what we are making in an environment of this nature. And if I have to trade risk with good sleep, I would go for good sleep and leave the risk to more adventurous types of people. I was born a chicken.

[Operator Instructions] Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Vakakis for any closing comments. Thank you.

I want to thank everybody who attended this conference. The way I see things is that we have to stay always optimistic, but at the same time, we have to be scholastic in really trying to find out where is the dragon in a story that it is currently looks, let's say, turning a little bit in our favor. All my life, I was chased by the dragon, and the dragon is somewhere there. If one believes that somewhere there is only an area between the States and China, he may be rudely awaken to indirect implications that he has never thought of as a result of something going wrong there. So I want to close this presentation by saying, yes, we remain optimist, but at the same time, extremely cautious to try to consolidate our optimism, not to get carried away. And at the end of the day, we will do whatever is humanly possible to secure profits rather than expand profits by adding unnecessary risk. That's the Jumbo way. I know that I may be disappointing some people who want to run the company as a rocket rather than as a plane, but that's the view of the current management. Thank you very much, and have a pleasant afternoon.

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for calling, and have a good afternoon.