Jumbo S.A. ($BELA)

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I am Maria, your Chorus Call operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the JUMBO conference call and live webcast to present and discuss the full year 2025 financial results. [Operator Instructions] The conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Apostolos-Evangelos Vakakis, Chairman of the BoD; Mr. Polys Polycarpou, CFO; and Mrs. Amalia Karamitsoli, Head of HR. Ms. Karamitsoli, you may now proceed.

Thank you, Maria. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining JUMBO's Annual Investor and Analyst Conference Call. Before we begin, I would like to briefly walk you through the key highlights of our performance, and then I will hand over to our Chairman, Mr. Apostolos-Evangelos Vakakis for further comments. 2025 was another year of solid performance and resilience for the group. Total sales increased by 7% year-on-year, reaching approximately EUR 1.23 billion, reflecting sustained demand across all our markets. Gross margin stood at 54.7%, slightly lower compared to last year, mainly due to the increased contribution of franchise operations, which carry lower margins. On a comparable basis, EBITDA rose by 5% to EUR 436 million, while net profit increased by 4% to EUR 320 million. Importantly, we continue to maintain a very strong balance sheet with a net cash position of EUR 473 million, providing us significant flexibility to support our investment plans. Return on capital employed remained very high at 27%, underlying the efficiency of our capital allocation. During the year, we continued to return value to our shareholders. Total cash distribution reached EUR 131.5 million, while we also proceeded with the buyback and canceling of 1.25% of the total shares. At the same time, we continue to expand our footprint. We opened our second store in Timisoara. We launched our online store in Bulgaria, and we acquired 3 previously leased stores in Greece, further strengthening our asset base. Growth was broad-based in all our regions. Greece recorded a 9% increase in sales, Cyprus grew by 8%, Bulgaria by 5% and Romania by 4%. This performance reflects both the strength of our brand and also our ability to adapt in local market conditions. Moving to the year ahead, we started 2026 on a positive note. Group sales for the first quarter increased by 7% year-on-year. Greece and Bulgaria posted a double-digit growth of 11%, while Cyprus recorded a 4% increase. And Romania, on the other hand, saw a decline of 4%, reflecting more challenging macroeconomic environment in the country. Also during the first quarter, we proceeded with a cash distribution of approximately EUR 67 million or EUR 0.50 per share, further demonstrating our commitment to our shareholder returns. Our strategy remains focused on expansion and long-term value creation. In Greece, we plan to develop at least 4 new stores in the next 3 years, while in Cyprus, we see that there is room for 2 additional stores in the medium term. In Bulgaria, we expect to add 1 more hyper store within the next 2 years. And in Romania, a new store in Baia Mare is scheduled to open in 2026. More broadly, our plan in Romania is to open at least 1 new store per year with the objective to double the number of the stores in the next decade. At the same time, our franchise network continues to grow dynamically, both within existing markets and to new territories. Currently, our partners operate 45 stores across 7 countries. Specifically in Israel, we expect 3 to 4 new store openings in 2026, while their entry in Canada is progressing and the first store in Toronto is expected in early 2027. We also continue to invest in the improvement of our e-commerce platform. Our focus is on improving customers' experience, operational efficiency, and we're also exploring the expansion into new markets. At the same time, we invest in our logistic infrastructure, which is critical to support our expansion. We have agreed to acquire a 60,000 square meter distribution center in Romania, while 2 additional distribution centers are under development in Greece. Total investments in logistics are expected to exceed EUR 95 million over the next 3 years. Looking ahead for 2026, we expect sales growth at around 5%, net income to range between EUR 310 million to EUR 320 million and capital expenditure close to EUR 60 million. To conclude, JUMBO continues to demonstrate strong fundamentals, consistent profitability and a clear strategic direction for future growth. Thank you for your attention. I now hand over the call to our Chairman, Mr. Apostolos-Evangelos Vakakis for the questions.

Good afternoon to everybody. I'm ready for the first question.

[Operator Instructions] The first audio question is from Stamatios Draziotis with Eurobank Equities.

Could I start with Turkey? Could you maybe elaborate on the strategic rationale behind the e-commerce launch approach? Should investors see this as a low CapEx way to test demand, brand awareness and price positioning before a physical rollout? Or is it just a stand-alone channel opportunity?

Yes. So practically, you are asking how we are going to approach the Turkish deal. So, we are going to employ our facilities in Romania, where we have established a state-of-the-art distribution center. And gradually, we will enter under the radar in the Turkish market in order to gain experience and market share. That will be only an e-commerce exercise, nothing more than that, nothing less than that. And one can say that for '26, it is a period of testing the waters.

Great. And if I could just follow up on the guidance. I just wondering, what is the gross margin assumption underpinning your '26 forecast about net profit settling, well flat to minus 3% year-on-year as indicated by the guidance?

It is really something that no one can give a clear understanding because all variables are unstable as we go through '26. We don't know the currency. We don't know the interest rates. We don't know how long the war will take or whatever. We have always cleared to the market that when we start guiding analysts about next year's performance or current year's performance, we only give the budgeted number. And therefore, these are not exact numbers. These are numbers that are compromised between various factors that move within a range. If one wants to be more specific, I would say that it won't be unsafe if people reduce the gross margin by 1 or 2 points.

The next question is from the line of Iakovos Kourtesis with Piraeus Securities.

My first question has to do with Balfin Group. You've said you are examining penetration in new markets along with Balfin Group. Would you be kind enough to let us know which markets do you currently examine? And second question has to do with the possibility to deploy some pop-up stores. I don't know if it will be Romania or other markets. If you could further clarify on this, please?

Okay. First of all, I want to clarify that we are -- we have more work than what we can cope with. What makes interesting the proposal of the gentleman you just mentioned is that he is willing to invest in infrastructure in order to serve new countries. That will be in the north. So it is, let's say, a franchise by trust. It's still a premature effort. But we have signed or we are about to sign a franchise agreement. And to go forward, since we will be having, let's say, benefits without really committing resources or time in that direction. So that answers part of your question. Can you remind me what was the second part of the question?

Which markets do you plan to proceed with a franchise agreement with Balfin Group? And if you plan to deploy a new model with the opening of smaller stores in some of your markets?

Hang on, these are 2 completely different issues. As I said, this gentleman is going to focus on what we call new northern markets. And he's going to run the operation from A to Z himself, by creating warehousing in China and serving these countries directly. Which countries will start first, which countries will start second, it's a little bit premature to say at this stage. We have offered to him 4 countries. They have funny names. If you want, you can ask Amalia later to define -- I don't remember the names of these countries. But there are decent countries. And according to him, they are of great interest. Regarding the pop-up issue, this is, as I said, a new effort that we have started studying for the Canadian market since it is there where we are going to exercise this new concept of, let's say, smaller stores inside shopping centers. And because of this study, most probably, we are going to introduce such stores in all countries where we operate in order to gain know-how and experience in parallel with the effort that we are going to go through in Canada.

The next question is from the line of Fani Tzioukalia with Euroxx Securities.

Just a quick one on my end and maybe a follow-up later. Could you please elaborate on the rationale behind acquiring your leased stores going forward?

The rationale of acquiring stores?

Yes, your own stores, yes.

Yes, because it makes a lot of sense. We don't acquire stores -- any store. We acquire stores that their financials prove that they are a good investment. So owning the property takes out the uncertainty of future negotiations. And we believe that since we are very profitable and very cash rich, it is a no-brainer. We should do so unless we can have, as an alternative, new stores, whether rented or both, which always will be prepared. But usually, they work on the opposite direction. When the uncertainty is around, it makes more sense to buy stores. When uncertainty is resolved, then it makes more sense to focus on generic growth rather than buy stores. But all in all, the mission statement is one day to own all the stores that are of interest to us and are offered at prices that make sense.

Okay. And maybe one follow-up. You mentioned the 3 distribution centers you're currently setting a negotiation for a distribution center in Romania. Maybe when do you think this is going to be fully operational? Sorry if I missed that already. And you mentioned also a CapEx of close to EUR 100 million over the next 3 years for this project, is that correct? And could you please allocate that in the window of the next 3 years?

No. What we have said in a simplified way is that part of our CapEx is directed towards new distribution centers. One distribution center is in Romania. I want to bring to your attention that Romania, it's still early stages. We will more or less double our stores in the coming years. So infrastructure should be in place there. And the other couple of stores -- the other couple of distribution centers was; one is in the north of Greece and one is in the south of Greece. And it is safe to say that between 30% of our CapEx -- between 30% and 40% because it depends how you measure it and how you read this CapEx, will go towards distribution centers in the coming 3 years. The rest will go either to buy new stores or to rent or to start new stores and so on.

So you mentioned in the press release and sorry to insist on that, that you plan to spend around EUR 95 million over the next 3 years. So...

EUR 90 million is for distribution centers, not for total CapEx.

Yes, EUR 95 million in the next 3 years...

EUR 90 million or EUR 95 million, I mean...

EUR 90 million or EUR 95 million, so basically, the CapEx is around 30% to 40% of...

Of total CapEx.

Of total yearly CapEx. So...

Yes.

Okay. Anyway -- okay, okay. So, eventually, the distribution center in Romania will be operational in a year from now? Should we assume that it would be operational in 2027?

We have said that if the deal goes through, we will be -- the distribution center will be operational, not in full capacity in '26. '26 is in Romania, 27 is in the north of Greece and '28, '29 is then in the south of Greece.

The next question is from Maksim Nekrasov with Citibank.

I have a -- to follow up regarding the outlook and the margin guidance, and I understand that the future is very uncertain, but still something made you budget slightly lower net profit despite growing sales. So, I was just wondering if you can talk about the high-level factors that made you budget decrease in margin this year? And what is -- what are those factors related to? And another question on the competition in Romania, in Bulgaria and Greece. Do you see any signs of increasing competition? And we've seen a lot of talks about action in Romania and expanded to Bulgaria. So any color on the competitive trends?

Let me focus a little bit on your question. When we talk about margin erosion, this is always a parameter that should be taken into account when we budget the year. And if one wants to make it very simple in one's mind, he would say that there is a cost implication of the wars around us. So, we don't really know the outcome of the wars. We don't know when the timing and so on. We only know that during wars, there is a certain degree of inefficiency, which somehow needs to be put into the system. And otherwise, we may be guiding people in the wrong direction. So it has nothing to do with what you call direct or indirect competition because practically, I have always said that people who understand the JUMBO concept also understand that there is no competition to JUMBO by all these companies that you mentioned, which are competitive. But in a parallel field, not directly with JUMBO. If one wanted to define who is the #1 competitor of JUMBO, I would say the hypers and the mass market stores. But having said that, JUMBO is a very small player by comparison to the world. And therefore, we work like a margin of error rather than a direct competitor to the dinosaurs or to the lions of the jungle. So yes, there is a cost of war. We call it cost of inefficiency because of the war, because of the various factors. But on the other hand, we also have a lot of benefits out of that because we are a company that has strong warehousing facilities, has positive cash flow, has a lot of money, has this, has the other. But it will be wrong and not prudent to budget optimism during turbulent times. This is one of the classic mistakes inexperienced managers make where they try to address a problem with optimism. I resent this exercise. When I give the guidance that I'm giving, I want to alert people that almost all parameters that are affecting the bottom line or the top line are under question in today's environment, not for JUMBO, but for the whole industry as a whole, for the whole retail industry as a whole. And whoever says that he can outguess what is happening today or he is better than Trump or better than Macron or better than this or better than the other, I don't want to hear about it. I am paid to worry. I'm paid to address not only positive implications on a day-to-day basis, but also negative ones. And I have to pre-account for that even if they are not visible yet. If you want my personal view, which I can say, but after I alert people that 9 out of 10 times I'm wrong, is that better times are coming ahead of us, not worse times. But again, this is a personal view. And usually, I'm wrong.

Mr. Nekrasov are you done with your questions?

Yes.

We will now proceed with any written questions from our webcast participants. The first 2 questions are from Luisa Orsini Baroni from [ ORSA ]. Can you update us on business in Romania? And the second question is on the gross margin, can you tell us the impact of franchise versus the core business? Are you investing in gross margin to be even more competitive?

Okay. If one reads basic analysis of the Romanian market, one will read that the total market is in a recession mode because of unresolved structural problems still existing in Romania. If you ask me personally, I have great confidence in Romania. I think it's a nice country. It's a beautiful country. It's a well-structured country. And sooner or later, they will resolve these problems that they have. So we don't lose even 1 second of our sleep regarding our future presence in Romania. And we have indicated that whatever micro environment may say, we are committed to develop this market to its full. So this is not something to be debated. If one ask us about the cost -- the margin that keeps cropping up. I don't know why. One would have to answer what would be the timing of the war, what would be the cost of the transport cost and things like that. If you focus in what other people are saying, problems may be resolved in 1 day or 1 week or 1 month or 1 year or generation. Nobody knows at this stage. But again, that doesn't matter because if a temporary environment turns into, let's say, unpleasant but stable environment, we would adjust pricing accordingly in order to take account of this. I mean, we are hedging our bet with products. And therefore, we don't have the same worry that an analyst has because practically speaking, we are competing with other people who face the same problem with us. And I have mentioned before, and I'm mentioning it again, what I call the penguin effect. We don't want to be the first on the water because the probability of being eaten by the hungry whales is very big. We don't want to be courageous or whatever. We want to be dumb and stupid and fall into the water once the whales are well fed. So I don't know why this thing of margin comes back and forward. I mean, for me, it is a -- let's say, an intellectual conversation that is not substantiated by JUMBO'S history in the last 40 years. I mean I believe that 40 years is enough for somebody to understand how JUMBO is working. We don't buy our turnover. We sell our products, but we don't want to bet against a wrong direction of the market. That's all.

The next question is from Gregory Randolph with Atopac Partners. You have been incredibly successful and had high market share in your core markets. Sometimes this can lead to complacency in retail as you are beating local competitors. How do you stay paranoid, well invested and ahead of the curve in such an environment?

I don't know what exactly is the question. We cannot apologize for being successful. But definitely, that doesn't come by accident. It comes by a coherent, simple-to-execute strategy. which, again, I pre-mentioned, is not based on driving the company like a rocket, but like driving the company as a jumbo plane that lifts, lands and makes round trips all through the year. So definitely, complacency may be one of our biggest enemies because we are very successful for tens of years. But we love what we are doing, and we want to continue doing it. And because we try to make it more simple, despite the fact that we are gradually aging, we are still in a position to cope with the work needed to do so. Retail is detail, and there is no bigger and more dangerous competitor than your bad self. So I wouldn't worry so much. There are no signs that something is going wrong.

The next question is from Johan Schwartz with [ MSC Invest ]. Last year, JUMBO was willing to buy back share up to a minimum price of EUR 27.20. Currently, the share price is below that threshold. Why are you currently not buying back shares?

Because we believe that we can employ our capital in a more productive way. The option to buy shares is there, but it's the last option, not the first option. As I said before, personally, I feel optimistic about the future. And if one reads our guidance and our plans for the next 2 to 3 years, sees an aggressive investment plan based on solid numbers, not on wishful thinking. And therefore, the option of buying back shares for me is not appropriate during the specific time period.

The next question is from George Lampiris with powergame.gr. Tell us a few more things about your expansion in Canada. When are you going to start?

We were supposed to start this year, but we do not control this process ourselves. We will expand through a franchisee. And this franchisee happens to be an Israeli one. And Israelis now are at war. So thank God that they keep working. So they fight with one hand and with the other one -- the other hand, they work. They need to face some calm before they actually refocus as a nation towards expansion and the rest. I am very proud of my partners and what they have done despite the impossible challenges that they face because of the war. Canada is there. We are going to be there. And thank God, we are going to do as well as we did in Israel.

We have a follow-up question from Johan Schwartz with [ MSC Invest ]. Does all the merchandise destinated to franchise stores move through your warehouses in Greece or in same merchandise shipped to those franchises directly from China?

As I said, we control the distribution of our merchandise through our central warehouses. Nothing is shipped directly to anywhere. But having said that, as I said before, in the future, some countries which are not in the system today will be dealt through a franchise agreement where the warehousing will be in China and not in Greece.

We have another follow-up question from Johan Schwartz. Will the merchandise for Canada also move through your warehouses in Greece? Or will this merchandise be shipped directly from China to Canada?

Definitely from Greece.

The next question is from [indiscernible]. Currently, are there any problems in the supply chain? Comments on freight, and what is the current policy of the group?

If there is what, I missed the question. With the...?

Supply chain.

With the supply chain. The answer is that because of the cost of the petrol, there is a transport surcharge on all transported goods from around the globe. For the short run, we are splitting this cost together with our suppliers because we both feel that this is a temporary implication, and it should not affect prices. Therefore, because of the strength of the euro, plus the fact that suppliers are willing to participate in this surcharge for petrol costs, we are still in balance. If one asks whether there are implications because of the war, the answer is evident, since no container ship passes through the Canal, the Suez Canal. So they have to go around Africa, and there is a cost implication because of that. How much of this is justified? How much is, let's say, self-serving for the interest of what we call logistic companies, you can be -- you can make your own judgment on that. But for the time being and because of the war, container ships have to go through Africa.

The next question is from Labis Michalopoulos with Lab Michalopoulos with N. Chryssochoidis Stock Brokerage. Please comment on impulse spending of consumers, the JUMBO concept short of speak versus launching with an e-shop in Turkey.

We don't have a clue what goes on in Turkey. We are currently investigating the mechanics and the realities of the place. So, all in all, you can only have an impression from me and not a real experience guidance. The impression is that Turks are willing to pay more for the same product a European pays. They make a lot of children. And of course, despite the fact that Turkey is a very big country, a percentage of the population is only involved and active, let's say, in this part of the -- what we call European or international products. But as I said, for us, it's a plus business for the time being. It is -- it may turn into something else, but it's too early in the stages in order for us to lose any sleep. We are more involved with the mechanics and infrastructure and programs and logistics and business partners and so on. No tangible numbers are still on the table.

The next question is from [ Horn Roee ] with Top Alpha. The e-commerce platform, especially in Bulgaria, looks quite outdated compared to competitors. Do you have a time line for digital overhaul?

Definitely. As we go through, we are overhauling that. And we are not entering Turkey without this overhaul in place, and definitely, that will benefit Bulgaria as well.

The next question is from [indiscernible] How long do you plan to stay on the forefront of the battle?

A good question, but you will have to ask God. I don't plan to retire. That will take me out of the company legs first.

The next question is from George Tsilis with Alpha Finance. First question, how do you prioritize competing uses of capital?

We -- as I said, we have 3 options. The first option is new stores, either rented or bought. Then we have the second option, is to buy the stores that we already rent. And the third option is to return money to the shareholders because the first 2 options are not very attractive. Of course, that doesn't have to do with the day-to-day where, let's say, a certain amount of capital is allocated for store preservation as well as the new DCs and more generic infrastructure. So, to repeat again, solid growth or generic growth. Then second option, buy existing stores if they are offered to us at a competitive price. And third, if we are not very successful in either 1 or 2, return more money to the shareholders.

The second question. With Q1 sales growth already tracking pretty well and hearing you being optimistic for the future, what is embedded in the second half assumptions that justifies the flat lower profit guidance? Are you essentially guiding for a significant H2 deceleration?

I have answered this question by saying that if you are an optimist and you try to grow quicker in a difficult environment like the one all the world is facing. For me, it's the least of my options. If we are lucky, we can get better numbers than the ones we have budgeted. But I wouldn't bet on that. I'd like to take my time in choosing how the game will be played. JUMBO is a company with a mission statement to be around 800 years from now. So to talk in terms of weeks or months or whatever to me, is meaningless. Here, we are talking about quarters or things like that, but everybody understands that the world is not in its best shape.

The next question is from [ George Fasseas ] with Alter Ego Media. The first question, what is the biggest risk to JUMBO'S business model today, rising supply chain costs, intensifying competition or shifting consumer behavior?

All parameters have a certain amount of risk involved, but none of these parameters is life-threatening. If one needs to worry, it is not people being contempt with what they are achieving. We are fully alert to the fact that if we are as good as last year, we are dead. We have to be better every year despite the fact that there are years that may not be as good as we would have liked. But during JUMBO'S history, we have gone through periods like that for many years. And so we have a track record to really back up what we are saying. I was born a chicken, and I plan to die a chicken.

The second question, if you were starting JUMBO from scratch today, what would you do differently?

I really don't know. It's too intellectual for me to answer this type of a question, because I never had this luxury as an option. So, as I said in previous presentations, I'm the fat guy hitting the drums, so the crew can row stronger as we head for the finish line. No luxury for cruises.

The next question is from George Athanasakis with Pantelakis Securities. First question, coming back to Turkey, do you think that you have the logistics and distribution in place to serve such a huge market with your online venture?

I didn't get the question. What is exactly the question?

It says coming back to Turkey, do you think that you have the logistics and distribution in place to serve such a huge market with your online venture?

First of all, the e-commerce is our own venture. We are not doing it with any strategic partner. And we are utilizing idle resources or capacity that is there in place. Turkey is a very, very difficult market. And one needs a lot of preparation if one wants to involve himself on the field. It's a little bit like the war today. I mean it's one thing bombing from United States and another thing landing in Iran. We will try to keep this option for the next generation unless it's absolutely necessary.

The second question is, what is your marketing budget for this venture?

As I said, in '26, it's next to 0. We plan to fly under the radar and measure things in a relaxed way. We don't have numbers in our budget that reflect the activity that we plan to introduce in Turkey.

The next question is from with Xanthi Gounari with Capital.gr. I have one question, if I may. Could you give us a sense of what percentage of group sales currently comes from e-commerce? And what is the target over the next 2, 3 years?

The e-commerce activity of JUMBO is a margin contributor, complementary service. It is not a service that we offer in order to compete with a JUMBO store. So we would be very happy if in each country, the e-commerce activity relates to a couple of JUMBO stores.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now hand back over to Mr. Vakakis for any closing comments. Thank you.

Thank you for listening to me. As I keep alerting people, our mission statement is the one of a Japanese company. We want to put in place all the fundamentals in order to be around for generations and not to create an exercise that has a finite potential. That's why we feel strange when people keep asking us about margins or pace and things like that. I would say that, that doesn't make justice to the efforts everybody is making at JUMBO. At JUMBO, we focus on productivity. But when we say productivity, on all aspects of productivity, whether they are short term or long term. And we try to stay constantly stupid in order to end up, let's say, successful, not against perfection, but against our competitors. And during good times, but also bad times, and thank God, we had a lot of bad times in Greece in the last 10, 20 years, we have managed to prove that our strategy works. It is not a strategy in question. Nobody really questions our strategy, except some analysts who want to promote another company or something like that. They are free to do so. But one should ask companies like the ones I've just heard, what is their current valuation? Are they growing or slowing? And I want to leave it there because really, as I said before, we are only interested in what we are doing. What other people are doing, the better they do it, the more we can profit from them because we can get their best practice and duplicate it. Thank you for hearing me and good afternoon.

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for calling, and have a good afternoon.