Jumbo S.A. (BELA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I am [ Kelly ], your Chorus Call operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Jumbo conference call and live webcast to present and discuss the Full Year 2023 Financial Results. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Apostolos-Evangelos Vakakis, Chairman of the BOD; Mr. Polys Polycarpou, Executive Director; and Ms. Karamitsoli Amalia, Head of IR. Ms. Karamitsoli, you may now proceed.

Thank you, Kelly. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm honored to be here today to share with you Jumbo's exceptional performance over the past year. In 2023, Jumbo achieved outstanding financial results, demonstrating robust growth across key metrics. Our sales grew by 14% year-on-year, reaching EUR 1.1 billion, all driven by volume. Our gross margin remained resilient at 56%. Moreover, our EBITDA increased by 18% year-on-year, reaching EUR 398 million, while net profit grew by 22% to EUR 303 million. This remarkable performance underscores the strength of Jumbo business model with effectiveness of management's strategic decisions. Importantly, our strong financial position, highlighted that net cash position of EUR 370 million provide us with the flexibility and also the capability to finance our business investment plan. In line with our commitment to our shareholders, we have consistently returned capital through cash distributions. In 2023, we distributed dividends totaling EUR 400 million. Additionally, we paid off EUR 200 million loan in May 2023. Operationally, 2023 was marked by significant milestones, including the launch of our Romanian online store and the opening of hyper stores in Romania and Bulgaria. Despite challenges, such as the closure of two stores in -- one in Karditsa; one, Larissa, due to Daniel Storm in September 2023. The top line remained resilient. In the first quarter of 2024, sales increased by 6% year-on-year. Despite the shifting of Greek Orthodox Easter, which in our view, also explained the performance in Q1, we expect sales growth to accelerate since the second half of April. April should account forfeit of Easter-related sales. In the first quarter, shareholders approved a cash distribution of EUR 0.6 per share. On top of that, management will propose a dividend of EUR 1 per share at the forthcoming Annual General Meeting. This proposed dividend, representing 45% of our 2023 Group profits, reaffirms management's commitment to reward shareholders for the continued support. As far as our expansionary strategy, we are committed to opening new stores. In 2024, we plan to open only hyper stores in Cyprus, Nicosia, there is the second store there. Timisoara, in Romania, the second store in the city, and also in Bucharest, further strengthening our presence in these countries. In April 2024, one more store added in Oradea. And also, we will reopen the store in Karditsa. The store in Larissa is expected to be -- to reopen in -- by the end of July 2024. Thank you all for your attention. I will now hand over to Mr. Vakakis and Mr. Polycarpou for further comments for the 2024 outlook.

Unfortunately, I have no comments. So I'm open to questions from whoever wants to raise the question.

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Kourtesis Iakovos with Piraeus Securities.

Yes. Congrats for the very good set of results. I was wondering, you've said you don't -- you will review the 2024 outlook along with the announcement of April sales, which is at the beginning of May, I suppose that for now, you currently stand with what you guided, it's about an 8% to 10% increase in terms of top line and bottom line for the full year period. And I was wondering, taking into account, that in the second half of the year, you are going to have an additional network of 6 new stores this year. Wouldn't you feel confident to reiterate this guidance?

My feeling is that -- and the way we have written it is that if the war, by any chance, did not escalate, I would have felt very confident. However, we have the luxury of few days or few weeks before we announce our new guidance in which period we hope that Israel makes final decision as to where he will target. Is it response? And what are the consequences of this targeting. But all in all, I would say that 51%, the guidance will hold or improve, and 49%, the guidance will not hold or will not improve.

[Operator Instructions] For now we will now move on to our webcast participant questions. The next question is from Mr. [ Johannes Swartz ] with MSC Invest. And I quote, Congratulations on the excellent results. What is your expectation for the gross profit margin in 2024? Will it stay around last year's 55.8%?

This is a one million dollar question. It really depends on what will happen with the war. The strategy that we are following is more top-line oriented than bottom-line oriented. And we felt confident that we can keep the margin as long as transport costs did not deteriorate significantly. So let's wait until next announcement in early May, in which case, we will also indicate what is our feeling about the gross margin. Assuming, of course, that by then, we would see the reaction of Israel to Iran's provocation.

The next question is from Mr. Athanasakis George with Pantelakis Securities. Level of CapEx for 2024, please? Mr. Vakakis, there are a few questions from Mr. Athanasakis, I will read each one separately. So the first question is level of CapEx for 2024, please?

Usually, what we said is that out of profits, the idea was to have a third of the profits or CapEx as an absolute maximum. So I don't think that we would deviate from this rule.

The second question for Mr. Athanasakis is, any more dividend planned for December '24?

Early. Too early.

How is the Israel business doing?

It is resilient. It seems that it is resilient to the war taking place there. But whether it is profitable or not, this is something for the franchisee to comment or to -- definitely, they have eagerness to expand the program.

The fourth question from Mr. Athanasakis is, how is the crisis in the Red Sea affecting your business?

I have readdressed this question. I should not repeat. Everything now depends on how Israel will react to Iran's provocation.

Any signs of serious competition in any of your markets?

I consistently say that the worst competitor is our bad self. So we are alert about that, and we do whatever it's humanly possible to improve productivity rather than excuses.

The next question is from the line of [ Nekrasov Maxim ], and I quote, what is the situation with shipping costs currently? How do you see your gross margin changing in 2024?

We -- everything -- our strategy was based on the assumption that the Suez Canal issue was a temporary situation. We said that we will readdress this issue after the first quarter. Now we say that it is a little bit premature to call an opinion, unless we see how Israel will respond and how the international community will evaluate this response. Up to now, the gross margin has not deteriorated. But this is only done with the assistance of suppliers, which cannot be infinite.

The next question is from Han Anthony with RAINIER INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT. Actually, there are 3 questions. I will take one at a time. Any thoughts on new countries?

Any what?

Any thoughts on new countries?

Any thoughts?

Any thoughts on new countries?

I side along with a view that Greece, short-term wise, has less problems than most European countries. And this is due to securitization about the interest that the country pays for the debt. And this debt -- this securitization goes all the way up to '32. So we have ample time in front of us to improve.

The next question is, any supply chain issues?

No. On the contrary, what China is coming back into the picture, and since it's come in this country, they do whatever is humanly possible to sustain growth strategies. If we assume that it's a one way, this way, for them, we don't see any real issues except from self-inflicted wounds from the European community. But this goes beyond our control. If something like that does happen, we will respond accordingly.

And the last question for Mr. Han. How has the war affected your logistics?

Comparatively, because of our infrastructure, we are better than our competitors, because we have a vast infrastructure of warehousing and the rest. Against perfection, of course, everybody has been affected since the transport time is 1 to 1.5 months further down. But in comparative terms, which is how we should look at it, we are [ par ].

The next question is from our webcast participant, Randolph Gregory with our Atopac Partners. When do you believe we will be ready to decide on the fifth country for Jumbo?

I didn't hear the question.

Hold on, let me just repeat it. I'm sorry. When do you believe we will be ready to decide on a fifth country for Jumbo? A fifth country.

I have no nightmares for the time being. I mean we have secured for a number of years, our growth in current countries. We have targeted future countries, but it's premature to say so at this stage.

The next question is for Mr. Lampiris George with Capital.gr. How do you feel about the Greek inflation situation and which are the consequences of this situation in consumption?

I believe that the Greek situation looks worse than in other countries due to the fact that they have started from lower prices. I don't believe that the final prices from the consumer side are higher than in other countries. If they are higher, are due to VAT implications or supply chain considerations. The issue is not really whether we are deviating from inflationary pressures, but whether we have the right policies to improve the spending power of people. Unfortunately, that takes much more work to achieve. And that's why we say that everybody must try to contribute to productivity from their part. And that includes also the government.

The next question is from Mr. [indiscernible] from [indiscernible], will your pricing policy remain the same?

We have a very clear position that as long as the Canal issue remains a temporary issue, prices will only go down. If, however, for reasons that we cannot control, the Canal issue is not resolved and becomes a permanent situation, it is very clear that we cannot pressure our suppliers to contribute towards this inefficiency for the foreseeable future. So we have managed to, let's say, absorb directly and indirectly the cost implications of the temporary imbalance. But if the temporary becomes permanent, then, of course, the whole strategy will change. And that's why we decided that we should really postpone and see what direction the powerful nations are taking regarding this complicated issue. We will be reactive, not proactive.

[Operator Instructions] Mr. Zagari Nota from ALPHA TRUST, if you would kindly submit your question in English, so we can read it. Thank you. Moving further on to [indiscernible] with [indiscernible]. How should we think about your framework for paying dividends going forward?

We have a clear strategy, which says that 1/3 of profits will be distributed consistently. But having said that, we have retained profits, but we distribute to sweeten the field. When the growth scenario is, let's say, questioned by unforeseen events. This scenario will -- is there since we still have a lot of retained earnings. But if we have, what we call solid double-digit growth, which is our goal, then of course, we will hold part of the past profits for unexpected events and things like that. It won't be necessary.

The next question is from one of our audio participants Gourdain Nicolas with Lexcor Capital.

Congrats. I guess coming back to Israel, I think Fox Wizel has pretty much publicly said they're going to open, I think, 2 new stores this year. And then another 2, 3 whatever next year. Is that what you're seeing as well, I guess, on your side? And it'd be helpful to understand, do they whether go ahead with the sort of 10, 20 stores, you think, in time? And I guess, how much is the war delaying the opening program, if anything?

I have a personal policy of not taking franchisees' views as our views. Therefore, for us, franchisee activity is really not part of our strategy. We do not understand other markets, positive or negative events that may arise in other countries. We have no intention to understand it or allocate time, because for us, it's counterproductive and therefore, not as profitable as in our own activities. And therefore, I don't want to say anything that can change because of somebody else's decision or implication. I only want to guide things that are controlled by our company fully.

Are you being approached by any other countries that would like to open franchises that you are considering?

We don't have an appetite for that. We don't have an appetite for that. We have enough worries as we are, in order to add worries. Jumbo's motto is, keep it simple.

And the last one on the Romanian eStore. How -- can you give us an update there? How is it doing? Any improvement? Any -- where do you see...

You have to wait until, as I said, the May announcement, where we will revisit our guidance. Romania is in an election year. Because of the election, we see positive and negative signs. All in all, Romania is a country as good as Greece. Therefore, I don't see any visible, at this stage, reason why our strategies or our success will be hindered by anything. But this is an assumption that it's made all other things equal, which is something that is a reasonable prediction, but it's not [ cast in iron ].

The next question is one of us from our audio participant, Kourtesis Iakovos with Piraeus Securities.

So an additional question is about if you can provide us an update on the installment of solar panels on your stores? How does this develop at the moment? Please answer this. And the second question has to do with the purpose from your side of the investment in Trade Estates. What was the purpose for these investments?

As far as the panels are concerned, as you know, that the [indiscernible] has a lot of problems in absorbing the produced power. So they have started interfering with the private sector and trying to stop further development of solar panels because the system cannot absorb this power. Our investment has gone through, and will be finished by the end of 2024, which was solar panels in about 17 stores. But now new regulations have limited the power that the store can request from the system. And therefore, strategically, one needs to wait until the system is ready to address the issue of oversupply as far as panels are concerned. Regarding the issue of Trade Estates, our decision to participate in this field was a vote of confidence, that if conditions in Greece improve, companies of this nature have a reason for being, they are not as attractive currently due to the fact that their performance is in line, give or take, with the interest rates. But once interest rates will start to normalize, then these companies will gain a reasonable momentum and will rebalance against what they are today. We want to collaborate with Trade Estates. And that's the reason why a decision was to participate with 1% on their capital.

The next question is from our webcast participant, [indiscernible] with [indiscernible]. Are you afraid of competition from [indiscernible], who are very low prices when you have so many pressures from inflation and geopolitical conditions, fuel, et cetera?

If people start, let's say, being afraid of competition, they have a problem. Competition is there, and it's necessary to make people better. If you are worried about unfair competition, then this is a different question. But this is something that it's an intellectual question that will be readdressed a few years down the road, because now the way we see it, is that the previous competitors, before this company that you just mentioned, evaporated, because they follow same strategies of buying turnover. And as a result of that, the more successful they were, the quicker they went bankrupt. We, as I repeat, all the time, we are worried if we don't have competition, because if we have competition, it means that we have to relook our strategies and make sure that we are not arrogant. But Jumbo, size-wise, in Greece and in the Balkans is as strong as any company. And therefore, if somebody can, let's say, use a winning strategy, and he is right, we will follow him. If he is using strategies with, let's say, question marks, then, of course, we wish them good luck, because they will need it.

The next question is from our webcast participant, [indiscernible]. Will you enter new product categories?

It goes without saying that this is an evolutionary matter. Categories come and go. Because we serve consumer needs, and this needs constantly change. So again, there will be categories that will subside and categories that will be introduced. You will not see in our stores, categories like electronics, food, and hobbies and fashion because these are categories that you don't get paid with money, but you get paid with stocks. And as a result of that, we shy away from areas that will question the quality of the numbers. This is what I've said previously with the competitor that you have mentioned. If a competitor allows a $10 shipment to be executed at his expense with $5 minimum charge, it means that it has a transport cost of 50% on that. Okay. You can always fly a rocket. But how do you land the rocket? We have a strategy, which makes a lot of sense, and it is consumer driven. And as long as you respect the consumer, and you treat him with respect, consumers, because they vote with money, they reciprocate. You cannot find even one stupid person who votes with money.

The next question is from the line of [indiscernible]. How do you prepare for possible China-Taiwan conflict, how could that affect your business?

If we have a situation like the one you mentioned, you will find me in Florida, bathing and enjoying the good life, okay? These are world events. But if they occur, it would -- they will become game changers, because one, people don't understand that Taiwan is a Chinese community. And they have the propelling power that makes China peak because they have moved all their production into China, Taiwanese. And this is how China is improving its performance. Once they spare these people from their machine, that will have implications much wider than what people think. Most of the successful companies in China are run by Taiwanese. So, okay, there are games that world balances, things like that. But it's the economy always that really matters. So issues like a conflict with Taiwan or the democratization of China. These are game changers. They could happen. There is one in a million or one in a billion to happen. If they do happen, good luck for the people who are weaker, because, certainly, the world will change.

The next question is from Lampiris George with Capital.gr. How easy is -- is it defined staff for your business? And what is the average salary that you offer?

Staffing the growth of the business is always an issue. It's not a great issue. It is a European issue. And that's why I pre-mentioned that in the productivity mix, we also request the understanding of the government as well, to understand issues of this nature. Regarding the, let's say, the average salary, this is a misleading factor because we are talking with human beings. So the question is, do we treat our employees Spartan or better than the guidance is? And the answer is that over the years, Jumbo has improved significantly in this area. And as a result of that, we have a very solid loyalty within our workers. The labor turnover is very limited.

[Operator Instructions] We have a follow-up question from Gourdain Nicolas with Lexcor Capital.

So Trade Estates, so they're opening a retail park in Patras, a retail park in Heraklion and Crete, then a big one in Ellinikon. I guess, is that something like -- could we see a few more Greek stores, do you think in those locations perhaps?

They are too expensive for us. We are, let's say, local instrument. And as a result of that, we only participate in projects that really are very sensitive to cost implications. They are much more attractive for newcomers rather than established companies because they cannot make established companies, usually, they don't play the premium, unless it is strategy by successful, let's say, companies to offer special terms to them. Trade Estates is still in its infancy. So they will go for [indiscernible]. We will stay with the [ both ].

Okay. So there is no commercial corporation, I guess, or sort of business?

No pressure, no pressure to do something of this nature.

Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Vakakis for any closing comments.

Thank you. I want to thank you for participating in this webcast. It would be very interesting, as I said, to read real numbers, April real numbers, and not a forecast. I'm always in favor of solid numbers rather than forecast due to the fact that we go through turbulent times. So one worry always Jumbo has is not to say something that may mislead investors making the wrong decision. So for us, it is, let's say, this is the law -- the rule of the land that we give our budgets as guidances. Of course, we reposition our budgets and our guidances according to realities of the place. But we don't sell optimism. We want optimism to be really supported by solid numbers. And not only solid numbers, but solid logic as well behind the numbers. Theoretically, if one has a number of new stores, it can be a little bit more optimistic. But on the other side, you have an unresolved issue with 2 wars, and a possible escalation on the one war. It is against investors' interest to guide them from our side. Profit is a result of risk, but they have to take it. We cannot encourage them to take it for them -- for us. Okay. On the other hand, I want to close by saying always that it is safer travel with a Jumbo than it is to [ Polish ]. Have a good afternoon.

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephones. Thank you for calling, and have a good afternoon.