Kendrion N.V. (KENDR) Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

February 27, 2026

ENXTAM NL Consumer Discretionary Automobile Components Earnings Calls 65 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Joep van Beurden

Executives
#1

Good morning, everybody, here in the Novotel and on the webcast, and welcome to Kendrion's Q4 and Full Year 2025 Results Presentation. My name is Joep van Beurden, Kendrion's CEO; and with me here is Jeroen Hemmen, our CFO. This morning's agenda, I will start with summarizing the highlights of 2025, after which I will spend some time on the strategic position of Kendrion as a pure-play industrial company. Jeroen will then review our Q4 and full year 2025 results, including ESG, after which I will give you an update of the progress we have made operationally over the past year. Next, I will discuss the outlook for 2026 and beyond and go to Q&A. Before discussing the strategic repositioning, I would like to draw your attention to the following. Certain statements contained in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements, and these forward-looking statements rely on several assumptions concerning future events and are subject to uncertainties and other factors, many of which are outside the company's control that could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements. Let us look at the operational and strategic highlights of 2025. 2025 was a pivotal year for Kendrion. Normalized Q4 EBITDA increased by 73%, reflecting higher volumes, continued margin expansion and solid cost control. Importantly, we achieved our long-term financial targets ahead of schedule, ending 2025 with 15.5% EBITDA margin and a return on invested capital of 24.6%. Cash generation was robust. Normalized free cash flow reached EUR 25.6 million, and this, together with the proceeds from the China divestments, enabled us to reduce net debt to EUR 30.3 million, down from EUR 103.5 million last year. In addition, we paid a special dividend of EUR 1 per share and launched a EUR 10 million share buyback program. We are proposing a cash dividend of EUR 0.70 per share for 2025, which is a 56% increase from the EUR 0.45 over 2024. Strategically, we completed the automotive divestment, marking our transition to a pure-play industrial company. Our project pipeline has expanded to the highest level on record, which is a reliable leading indicator for growth. And shorter term, the strong momentum in Q4 provides a solid foundation for our 2026 outlook. Let us look in more detail at our strategic position. I'd like to start with a reminder why leaving Automotive. Our decision to exit automotive is about focus and financial returns. Automotive demands heavy ongoing CapEx and R&D investment while delivering structurally lower margins. In our Industrial Brakes and Industrial Actuators & Controls, we expect to achieve stronger growth and better returns at lower investments. We executed an exit path in three steps. In the first step, we sold six automotive factories in Europe and the U.S. to Solero. The China MBO completed the strategic shift and strengthened our balance sheet, while the capacity sharing agreement with Knorr-Bremse lets us wind down remaining mobility activities efficiently while preserving cash generation. The result, a simpler pure-play industrial portfolio, improved capital allocation and stronger financial resilience to drive sustained value creation. This slide depicts the journey Kendrion has made over the past 10 years. As you can see, in 2015, Kendrion was mostly an automotive Tier 1, 2 with a bit of industrial business on the side. Initially, we improved the balance between the two divisions by acquiring INTORQ in 2020 and 3T in 2021. And after those transactions, our revenue was roughly 50-50 between industrial and automotive. This turned out to be a powerful help when starting in 2020, the automotive market came under significant and as we later concluded structural pressure. We decided that we needed to exit automotive in the summer of 2023 and completed that divestment at the end of last year. We are smaller now and in a more focused and stronger position. Looking at the financial implications, please remember, this is a comparison with 2015 before all the disruption of the automotive market by diesel gate, electrification, Chinese competition, COVID, high inflation, the war in Ukraine and continued geopolitical uncertainty. We are 45% smaller in revenue, but our EBITDA margin is 40% higher, return on invested capital, 140% higher and net debt almost 70% lower. Before we get to Kendrion's plans for the next years, let us drill down on the 70% mobility in our CBU facility. The cooperation between Kendrion and Knorr-Bremse is structured in 2 distinct phases designed to ensure continuity, stability and a smooth long-term transition of the CBU plant. In Phase 1, Kendrion remains the full owner of the plant and continues all existing operations exactly as today, producing fuel pump controllers, BLDC controllers and sound ECUs. Initially, Kendrion will manufacture small volume Knorr-Bremse prototypes and pilot batches planned carefully so that they do not affect current customer commitments. All CBU employees stay with Kendrion. The flip to Phase 2 occurs once KB CBU revenue surpassed Kendrion's or on the 31st of December 2028. At that moment, plant ownership transfers to Knorr-Bremse and employees will be offered roles at that company. Equipment will transfer and KB will manufacture both companies' products until Kendrion's programs phase out. This ensures continuity and long-term stability for the CBU team. In summary, the corporation secures factory continuity and profitability as Kendrion volumes decline. We expect a cash flow contribution of the corporation of around EUR 7 million. And at the flip, we will transfer around 190 employees to Knorr-Bremse. Let's talk about Kendrion as it is today. Our mission at Kendrion is to help industrial machines and systems move safely, precisely and reliably. We do this by providing high-quality valves, actuators, brakes and motion control technologies. These components make our customers' machines work exactly the way they are supposed to every time. In short, we help our customers' products and machines perform at their best. It's a simple mission, but of course, not so simple to live up to. And we are exceptionally good at it, which is why we have an excellent reputation at our customers. We're active in many market segments, which can be grouped in four main categories. Around 50% of our revenue is related to robotics and automation, 1/4 to integrated safety systems, around 10% to health care and medtech and 7% to renewable energy and transmission infrastructure. And these numbers exclude mobility. In all these segments, we stand to benefit from significant and long-term secular growth trends. Kendrion enters 2026 at the center of a major technological shift that is transforming how industrial machines are designed and operated. This shift is helped by artificial intelligence that is accelerating the move towards smarter, faster and more autonomous systems and machines. And while AI can calculate, design and optimize, it cannot generate physical motion, and that is precisely where Kendrion's strength and opportunity lie. Our mission remains to enable safe, precise and reliable motion in industrial machines and our strategy focuses on powering the next generation of intelligent equipment through advanced motion control technology. As our customers innovate in robotics, automation, machine safety, renewable energy and medical technology, their systems demand increasingly higher level of functional safety, precision and reliability. At the same time, global needs for electricity and energy security are driving investment in wind, nuclear and broader electrification infrastructure. We are aligning our product portfolio with these trends product by product, customer by customer, project by project, building solutions that serve markets where demand for high-performance motion continues to accelerate. So let us look a bit closer at these trends. We are well positioned across the four strategic markets, each driven by clear and accelerating long-term trends. First, robotics and automation at roughly EUR 100 million in revenue in 2025. This is our largest market, also fueled by AI-driven automation towards the next generation of intelligent equipment and customers demanding components for those machines optimized for safety and reliability. At the same time, we're benefiting from ongoing supply chain resilience efforts and reshoring initiatives. Second, integrated safety systems contributing about EUR 50 million. This business is expanding as customers adopt automated safety solutions where machines interact directly with humans. For these applications, strict regulatory approvals are critical and ever more difficult to obtain. Third, healthcare and medtech at around EUR 20 million. Growth here is shaped by demographic and structural shifts, an aging population, an increase in robotic procedures, again, helped by AI and the push for more home-based treatment solutions. These dynamics continue to create attractive opportunities for our medical products. And finally, energy and distribution infrastructure at approximately EUR 5 million today. Fast growth in electrification, investments in AI data center infrastructure and the global need for energy security and resilience are driving demand in this segment. Together, these four markets form a robust future-oriented revenue base aligned with global trends where our technology plays an essential role. In fact, today, our industrial pipeline is larger than we have ever seen and the number of additional product opportunities is larger than our R&D capacity. So let us look at our investment criteria. Given our focus on the industrial markets as just discussed, the secular growth trends driving them and our strong existing position, we want every project to move us closer to our long-term goal, building high-value motion control solutions for the next generation of intelligent machines. To do that, we use a clear decision framework that guides where we invest with three simple rules. First, strong financial performance. The new business opportunity must support revenue growth of at least 10% per year, ideally higher and driven by specific innovation in segments that we know well. The project should also achieve steady-state fully costed EBITDA margin exceeding 20%. If it does not meet this, we do not invest. Second, clear and protected differentiation. We choose projects where we have something unique that cannot be easily copied. There can be patents, required regulatory approvals or special know-how. And third, we want the product to be mission-critical to our customers, where our product has an excessive cost of failure for the customer and a low share of their overall product cost. This typically results in low replacement incentives and drive durable customer relationships. If a project meets all three criteria: financial strength, uniqueness and is mission-critical for our customers, we move forward. And these criteria are not new. We have used them in our industrial franchise for years. And this means that today, we have quite a few products that satisfied these criteria and are designed to make full use of the trends just discussed. This slide highlights some of the key innovations driving profitable growth in robotics, automation and integrated safety. Starting top left, our slim line PM brake. We launched this product in the fall at the SPS in Nuremberg. We have full patent protection, and it is compact high-performance design, makes it ideal for cobots, humanoid robots and other forms of automation where high performance and a small form factor is key. The product is designed with a so-called platform approach, which allows for easy portfolio expansion. Top right, our ultra compact lock. This lock has a low-power motor-free mechanism, perfect for solar power units like parcel lockers. We have filed for patent protection, and we are actively evaluating the product with major EU customers. Bottom left, automated guided vehicle wheel drives. This brake is optimized for the fast-growing warehouse automation market. Our early integration into customers' wheel hub designs strengthens long-term partnerships. The brake is critical to the drive's performance, even though we represent a small share of the overall bill of material. And bottom right, our functional safety module. This TUV-certified PLC helps customers meet strict European safety regulations such as the European Machine Directive. It's exceptionally reliable and already being evaluated by major customers in Europe and Asia. As more and more automation interacts directly with humans, a PLC with the necessary approvals is critical for our customers. I want to emphasize, these are just a few examples. And in our annual report published earlier today, you will find a more complete product overview, include finger grippers, including finger grippers, linear to vibrating and rotary solenoids and a full range of control and safety electronics. This slide highlights the two other markets of focus for us, medical technology and energy. On the top left, our biocompatible pressure regulator is now fully certified to EU, U.S. and ISO medical standards. This product is designed as a critical component for kidney dialysis and anesthesia systems. It needs to be produced in a specific biological clean room. The first products are ready with initial customer orders already secured. Longer term, we're anticipating strong demand driven by the move towards more advanced, reliable medical equipment. We know that on the IB side, our medically approved permanent magnet brake is used in robotic-assisted brain surgery, an area where precision and reliability are critical. And now that our customers' product has been approved by the FDA, we are ready to ship the first brakes. Applications such as this require long qualification cycles, which in turn create deep partnerships and strong customer stickiness. And then as a last example on the right, we have our nuclear power plant steam relieve valve. These actuator solenoids are used in primary and secondary safety circuits, nuclear safety circuits and meet extremely stringent U.S. and European nuclear standards. And with 35 reactor projects, both new builds and upgrades in the order book and around 10 of these valves per project, this product supports healthy growth over the coming years. Together, these seven examples illustrate our position in markets where demand for safe, precise and intelligent motions continues to accelerate. Let me wrap up with why Kendrion is positioned to win in our view. First, we are focused on high-growth, high-margin industrial end markets, all supported by powerful long-term trends. Second, we bring unique expertise and differentiated technologies that enable motion that is safe, precise and reliable, exactly what next-generation machines require. Third, we have created high barriers to entry for our markets of choice, intellectual property, regulatory approvals, deep application know-how and highly experienced people. Fourth, we are looking to supply so-called mission-critical components where the cost of failure is high to our customer, while our share of the bill of materials is low. And finally, once designed in, our product typically remains part of the customer's machine for the entire production life cycle, which can be decades, fostering long-standing customer relationships. This has created a relationship with market leaders and innovators based on our reputation for quality and reliability built over many years of consistent performance. In short, strong markets, differentiated technology, high barriers, mission-critical products and loyal customers. That is our right to win. I now hand over to Jeroen for the financial review.

Jeroen Hemmen

Executives
#2

Thank you, Joep. So let me first briefly walk you through the key developments across our ESG program, starting with environmental. Following the divestment of China, we recalibrated our carbon reduction target to 12%, reflecting the structural change in our footprint and ensuring the target remains realistic and meaningful. In 2025, we reduced our carbon emissions by 10%, and we continue to pursue further reductions. We now operate on 92% renewable electricity, and we are working to close the remaining gap where realistic. On social, our focus remains on diversity and employee engagement. Our diversity targets are unchanged. However, team composition did not improve last year, indicating the need for additional action to accelerate progress. Our 2025 employee survey showed improved overall scores compared to the previous cycle, reflecting solid and stable engagement. On governance, we continue to see progress with improved EcoVadis and CDP ratings, confirming stronger alignment with international sustainability standards. Internally, we enhanced our sustainability reporting framework, improving data consistency and transparency with further Scope 3 enhancements underway. We also implemented a structured supplier sustainability screening process in 2025, providing comprehensive insights into the upstream risks and forming the basis for targeted supplier engagement. Overall, we see steady progress across all three pillars. I will now shift to the business review, starting with the key highlights for the fourth quarter and the full year 2025. In Q4, we delivered strong sales growth across all business groups, supported by a recovery in volumes. This translated into a 600 basis points increase in normalized EBITDA margin driven by the higher volumes, positive pricing and continued cost discipline. Our added value margin improved 160 basis points to 58.1% in Q4, driven by increased average sales prices in all business groups. Our operating costs were reduced by EUR 1 million, partially reflecting the synergies that were still present in the fourth quarter of the last year following the Automotive divestment. We also received the first contribution from the capacity sharing agreement related to our mobility electronics plants that added EUR 800,000 to the mobility operating result in Q4. In addition, we recorded a transaction gain of EUR 5 million related to the China divestment. This was partially offset by incidental costs related to the former automotive activities, primarily a provision for soil cleanup at our Austrian site and retroactive depreciation following the reclassification of the building from held for sale. Total reported net profit from discontinued operations in Q4 was EUR 4.4 million. During Q4, we also realized cost savings to offset the synergies from the China divestment against the one-off restructuring charge of EUR 1.2 million. Then looking at the full year 2025, our revenue decreased by 1%, primarily due to weakness in industrial end markets during the first half of the year. This was more than offset by strong execution on margins. Higher sales prices contributed 2% to the revenue, contributing to a 250 basis points improvement in the year-on-year added value margin. Operating costs increased EUR 1 million or 1%, but this was more than offset by increased other operating income. Normalized EBITDA increased by 15% to EUR 38.1 million, and we achieved an EBITDA margin of 15.5% and a return on invested capital of 24.6%, reaching our long-term targets ahead of schedule. Turning now to the performance by segment. Within industrial, revenue decreased by 2% for the full year, mainly due to weak manufacturing activity in Germany during the first half. Importantly, performance improved significantly in the second half with Q4 delivering 7% growth as markets began to improve. Despite the softer revenue environment in the first half, the EBITDA margin increased by 100 basis points to 15.5%, driven primarily by gross margin expansion. Momentum strengthened further in the second half with EBITDA margins up 270 basis points, supported by improved pricing, mix and disciplined cost control. In mobility, revenue increased 4% year-on-year, sales price increases and new project ramp-ups more than offset the impact of the phaseout of activities. Profitability improved strongly with the EBITDA margin expanding by 850 basis points. In the second half, results were supported by EUR 800,000 contribution from the capacity sharing agreement, adding around 4% to the mobility margin in the second half year. Let me now move to cash flow and our financial position. We delivered a strong normalized free cash flow of EUR 25.6 million, corresponding to a cash conversion of 67% of continued EBITDA. Cash generation was supported by a normalized net working capital inflow, while capital investment remained well below depreciation. Normalized working capital as a percentage of revenue ended slightly above 14% compared with 16.9% in the prior year when China was still included. Net debt was reduced by EUR 73.1 million, driven by both divestment proceeds and strong free cash flow generation. This resulted in a leverage ratio of 0.8, a significant improvement compared to the 2.7 in the prior year. Capital expenditure remained disciplined at EUR 9.3 million, well below the EUR 15.3 million in depreciation, including both continued and discontinued operations. In addition, we paid the final tranche of EUR 1.6 million related to a 30% participation share in CFV Innovations, a developer of constant flow valve technology for agricultural and medical application. Overall, the group is in a strong liquidity position. After canceling EUR 25 million in facilities in February '26 linked to the China divestment, the total headroom in cash and available credit lines is EUR 92 million. This provides ample financial flexibility going forward. And finally, turning to capital allocation and shareholder returns. Our dividend policy provides for a payout of at least 50% of normalized net profit before amortization. The 2025 payout structure included a EUR 0.45 per share optional dividend over the 2024 profit as well as a EUR 1 per share special dividend funded from the proceeds of the China divestment. In addition, we launched a EUR 10 million share buyback program in November '25, of which EUR 2.5 million was executed during the year. And as per today, an amount of around EUR 7 million has been repurchased. Based on the strong financial performance in 2025, Kendrion proposes a EUR 0.70 per share dividend. This reflects confidence in the group's cash generation and balance sheet strength while maintaining financial flexibility for future growth. And please note that the dividend is fully payable in cash. And that concludes the business review, and Joep will proceed with the operational update.

Joep van Beurden

Executives
#3

Thank you, Jeroen. Before we go to outlook, let us talk about the operational progress at IB and IAC, starting with IB. We closed the year with EUR 93.7 million in revenue, which is slightly below 2024. During 2025, our order book improved and drove growth in Q4. On profitability, we made progress as well. IB's added value increased to 55.7%, up from 52% last year on the back of pricing and purchasing initiatives. As mentioned, the slim line PM series was successfully launched at SPS in Nuremberg as we secured patent protection, strengthening our technological differentiation. And we also strengthened the collaboration and coordination between sales, product management and R&D with robotics, automation and a team investigating opportunities in defense. On the customer side, our project pipeline doubled in 2025, demonstrating we are translating the opportunities we have identified into future demand. As an example, one of our medical robot customers received FDA approval with product ramp-up now happening. In summary, a good year for IB, strengthening our market position, improving profitability and growing customer momentum. Next, IAC. Revenue was stable at EUR 110.4 million with softer demand in textile manufacturing machinery, fully offset by growth in logistics and medical. We further increased the added value margin from 63% to 63.7%. And on the product road map, we brought two new induction heating products into production and delivered a broad set of product samples to customers, including many of our new products such as the parcel lock, the power pinch valve, biocompatible pressure regulator, machinery safety PLCs, inductive heating systems and a newly developed logistics stopper. Trading-wise, key market segments strengthened in the second half, and we are working on a record number of active customer projects. Overall, IAC delivered stable revenue, improving margins, strong innovation and a healthy and expanding customer pipeline, which brings us to outlook. Looking ahead to 2026, we see encouraging signs. The European economy is starting to improve and although visibility remains limited, we are experiencing increasing commercial momentum with both existing and new customers. We see long-term growth opportunities in robotics, automation, safety systems, medical technology and renewable energy and the positive market response to our newly introduced products such as the slim line brake, the compact lock, the power pinch valve and the biocompatible pressure regulator, and it reinforces our confidence in the strength and competitiveness of our portfolio. For 2026, our focus remains on margin improvement, cost discipline and operational efficiency. Looking further ahead, we are well positioned to benefit from powerful secular growth trends amplified by artificial intelligence. In short, improving economic conditions, a strengthening pipeline and rising customer interest give us confidence for sustainable, profitable growth in 2026 and beyond. Finally, our 2027 financial targets. We reiterate our financial commitments for the coming years, delivering an EBITDA margin between 15% and 18%, supported by our industrial strategy and operational discipline. By 2027, we aim for a return on investment of 23% to 27%, reflecting both improved profitability and our continued product and project focus. We will continue to distribute at least 60% of normalized net profit as annual dividends as we propose for 2025 at 61%. And finally, we expect to achieve annual revenue growth of between 5% to 8%. These targets reflect our confidence in the strength of our markets, our technology and our strategic direction. Ladies and gentlemen, before we go to Q&A, I want to leave you with a final message. Kendrion is stronger, more focused and better positioned for long-term profitable growth than at any time in our recent history. 2025 was a transformative year. We completed our exit from automotive, strengthened our balance sheet, sharpened our strategic focus and delivered a significant improvement in profitability ahead of plan. We are now a pure-play industrial motion technology company operating in markets where demand is not only resilient but accelerating, driven by powerful secular trends in robotics, automation, integrated safety, medical technology and energy. Our innovation efforts are producing results. The project pipeline is growing, newly introduced products are gaining traction and our position in mission-critical applications continues to deepen. With a stronger portfolio, disciplined capital allocation and a local-for-local supply chain, we are in a pole position to convert these opportunities to shareholder value. We reaffirm our financial commitments, expanding EBITDA margin, rising ROIC, healthy revenue growth and an attractive dividend. In short, we know we have work to do, and we know that economic and geopolitical instability is here to stay. But at the same time, our momentum is building, confidence is high. And in our view, the best chapters for Kendrion lie ahead. And with that, I'd like to hand it over to Q&A.

Joep van Beurden

Executives
#4

Frank?

Frank Claassen

Analysts
#5

Yes, Frank Claassen at Degroof Petercam. Question on the added value margin. You made a nice step up. Is this sustainable, certainly in light of all the raw material prices, which have gone up like copper and the rare earth metals. So, yes, is this sustainable going forward?

Jeroen Hemmen

Executives
#6

Yes, we believe it is sustainable. So copper prices and rare earth prices, also raw steel prices, they are generally passed on. So, yes, if it expands beyond the current levels, then it could be that percentage-wise, there you have a bit of an issue. But the trend of the added value margin, I would say, is earlier up than down.

Frank Claassen

Analysts
#7

And that's because you've already implemented price increases, which also...

Jeroen Hemmen

Executives
#8

That partially will also translate into further improvements in '26. That's the expectation.

Joep van Beurden

Executives
#9

And sorry, if I maybe one more addition. So you hear me talk a bit about the mission-critical nature of the products where on the one hand, there is a high cost of failure. On the other hand, there's a low proportion of the bill of material. Another way to say it gives you a bit of pricing power, which, of course, compared to automotive is a completely different world. Now you can't stretch that too far. We all know that, but it certainly protects the added value margin as well.

Frank Claassen

Analysts
#10

Okay. Then a question on the revenue you generated from the Knorr-Bremse deal and the EUR 0.8 million. Is this now a number which we can expect in the coming quarters as well? Or how should we look at that?

Jeroen Hemmen

Executives
#11

Yes. So I think in the previous meeting, we mentioned roughly EUR 2 million per year. So it exists of lump sums and contribution to the indirect cost. It comes in a little bit lumpy, but you can take into account roughly EUR 2 million for the coming years.

Frank Claassen

Analysts
#12

And does that EUR 2 million in the end add up to the EUR 7 million you've disclosed?

Jeroen Hemmen

Executives
#13

Correct.

Frank Claassen

Analysts
#14

So the EUR 7 million is over the course of the whole.

Jeroen Hemmen

Executives
#15

Yes, until '28. And then as you've explained, then you have, let's say, the flip and then they will become the contract manufacturer for us for the remaining revenue that we have. And then we still have the contribution margin of those -- of that revenue.

Frank Claassen

Analysts
#16

And at the time of this flip, will you still get a sort of extra payment or...

Jeroen Hemmen

Executives
#17

No, that's included.

Frank Claassen

Analysts
#18

Yes. Then finally, maybe on the working capital and the CapEx, some building blocks for the free cash flow. What can we expect there? The working capital, is there still room for improvement? Or is the 14%, if I recall well, is that a good level already?

Jeroen Hemmen

Executives
#19

I think that's a good level. So, on inventory, we're currently increasing it a bit because of also demand and for example, also the rare earth situation to have a bit more buffer or quite a bit more buffer stock there. So, I think, 14%, a bit higher than 14% is good. On the CapEx, 9.3%, is a bit lower than what we said. I think in 2026, it will be, yes, around about EUR 11 million, but well below depreciation as well.

Joep van Beurden

Executives
#20

Okay. Tijs?

Tijs Hollestelle

Analysts
#21

Tijs Hollestelle from ING. Yes, in a follow-up to Frank's question, if you focus in the short term on further cost alignment measures or improvements, so the gross margins are sustainable, but is there, let's say, also upside? And is there more upside in the Industrial Brakes compared to the others? Or do you focus on OpEx? Where can we expect additional cost saving measures?

Jeroen Hemmen

Executives
#22

Yes. So, on the added value expansion, we think it will continue in -- both in IAC and in IB. Of course, also, so revenue, if the trajectory continues as it does, that, of course, will also contribute. And on the cost, the main focus was on mitigating the dis-synergies from China, which we have fully done in Q4. So we will have no net impact of that in '26.

Tijs Hollestelle

Analysts
#23

Okay. It's broad-based. And then I was looking this morning to former earnings releases, and it was a long time ago that you basically added a positive statement in the outlook. I think in the third quarter trading update, market conditions still look subdued. I think that was the word you were using. So I think that Kendrion is quite a proxy to European economies. So what happened in the fourth quarter? Is it broad-based increase in demand? Is it specific customers, end markets?

Joep van Beurden

Executives
#24

Yes -- no, it's a bit more subtle than that. I mean you can also look -- we usually look at these indicators from the VDMA that seems to be a good proxy for us. They're edging up a bit. And it's not a big step-up as we've seen sometimes in the past. However, the overall confidence level we sense at our customers also related, of course, to the opportunities that they also see is up. That reflects itself in a little bit of restocking that reflects itself in the order book looking not too far ahead, but a couple of quarters. And you also hear cautiously that the German economy after many years, of course, where this was really, really flat at best, is inching up. So the combination of that gives us a little -- some confidence to say, hey, this could finally be -- I mean it's not a massive tailwind, but a bit of help. That's how you should see that. Now let me immediately add when we wrote this and when we talked about this earlier, this was before in the United States, the Supreme Court avoided all these tariffs. That, of course, gave initial uncertainty. There's a threat from looming in the Middle East. So that's here to stay. So tomorrow, something can happen that negates everything I just said. But fundamentally, I think in subtle, the outlook has improved somewhat, as you correctly concluded compared to what we said in Q3 and I believe two years before that.

Tijs Hollestelle

Analysts
#25

Okay. I appreciate indeed that we have to be very careful with the geopolitical conditions on the market. But you're also using, for instance, industrial brakes, the project pipeline doubled. So, I mean, I'm not looking for, let's say, the next quarter potential growth, but what kind of scenarios for the next four to six quarters do you calculate with them? Is that 10% growth?

Joep van Beurden

Executives
#26

No, that's a little bit too. Look, so the project pipeline, as you know, and so it's doubled. That means the momentum around these new projects, and we've given a few examples in today's presentation is excellent. The translation into revenue and into growth always takes four to eight quarters. However, it is not as if we've just started this now. We've been working on these projects for quite a bit of time over the past year. So it's the same subtle argument you say, look, near term, we see more confidence and a healthier order book than what we've seen over the past couple of years. that will help us at least in the coming couple of quarters, not to the extent of 10%, but a bit, certainly better than last year when in the end, if you look at our overall revenue was flat, a little bit down even. Longer term, I think then late '26, maybe early '27 when these translating order -- this order book, this pipeline starts to convert, that should basically sustain it and hopefully getting us then in between this 5% to 8%.

Tijs Hollestelle

Analysts
#27

That's very helpful. And sorry for all the questions, but also having in the back of the mind that the price increases, this is also including volumes. It's both volumes and higher prices, what is making you positive in the order book, okay? That is helpful. I had a question on Slide 23. The internal commitments to new projects. And you said it was already there, but have you further expanded and implemented that in the organization? So let's say, the cutoff rate for the EBITDA margin above 20% and at least 10% growth in new products. Is that something that we can expect a positive incremental effect on the business going forward?

Jeroen Hemmen

Executives
#28

Yes, because currently, the EBITDA margin is below that. So as you bring on these new projects. But yes, that goes, of course, quite smoothly. That will not -- you cannot replace -- we will not replace EUR 100 million with, what is it, EUR 15.5 million with EUR 100 million in -- with 20% EBITDA in one year. But gradually, that definitely will help to improve the margin.

Tijs Hollestelle

Analysts
#29

Okay. I get that the margin is lower, but I also recall your comment that it is not new or it is new. what was the former internal target for this?

Joep van Beurden

Executives
#30

No, this -- I mean, as I said, so you're referring to the investment criteria?

Tijs Hollestelle

Analysts
#31

Yes.

Joep van Beurden

Executives
#32

Yes. So we have used this for a while now. And after this slide, I presented seven examples, and I mentioned in the annual report, there's a couple of others. They all adhere to this. So that means they are mission-critical. It means we have a differentiator, can be regulatory, can be patent-based. We see good growth for that project, of course, and ultimately, of course, the thinking is in quite a few years, if you keep doing this, then ultimately, you should end up here. But we're not there yet, and that's going to take a while, as you can well appreciate. So this is not something that now -- the point is we are not here to say, hey, we are now fully industrial. Let's look at this. This is what we've been using for couple of years. I think this slide was even in the Capital Markets Day.

Tijs Hollestelle

Analysts
#33

And it is for projects. So it's not for the 100% business. There's also less commoditized business in Kendrion.

Joep van Beurden

Executives
#34

There is, but of course, over time. So this is -- we say we go product by product, project by project, customer by customer over time. We will apply these criteria to decide where we invest. And as we have plenty of opportunity, we have more opportunities than what we can actually support. This should ultimately, of course, but now we're talking way beyond '27, you will understand, but this is how we're trending.

Tijs Hollestelle

Analysts
#35

It's a long-term positive impact on the business.

Joep van Beurden

Executives
#36

Yes.

Tijs Hollestelle

Analysts
#37

Okay. That's good to hear. One final question for now. The remark about the normalized trade working capital I think it was a couple of million higher than what you reported. If you apply that normalization to 2026, is that an accountancy issue? Or will it also result in a cash outflow?

Jeroen Hemmen

Executives
#38

That will also result in a cash outflow of a couple of million. That is still provisions for severance, for example.

Tijs Hollestelle

Analysts
#39

Okay. That is the case. And I forgot the slide number, but in your bridge, in your bar graph on the cash flow, there was an exceptional cash flow impact of EUR 6 million. What was that?

Jeroen Hemmen

Executives
#40

Yes, that was in -- that is mainly the restructuring after the transaction with Solero. So we reduced, what was it, EUR 9 million net dis-synergies then. So that was, I think, a EUR 5 million provision at the end of last year, which was paid, plus also transaction costs related to the divestments.

Tijs Hollestelle

Analysts
#41

Yes. Okay. So that number is the same as the change in provisions in the cash flow.

Jeroen Hemmen

Executives
#42

Yes, roughly.

Tijs Hollestelle

Analysts
#43

More or less.

Jeroen Hemmen

Executives
#44

Yes.

Joep van Beurden

Executives
#45

Maarten?

Maarten Verbeek

Analysts
#46

Maarten Verbeek, the IDEA!. I'd like to get back to the slide you just removed again.

Joep van Beurden

Executives
#47

The decision-making slide.

Maarten Verbeek

Analysts
#48

Exactly. Two things. Firstly, you mentioned this is being implemented for quite a while. If we now look at the contribution of those projects on your total sales of IAC and IB, what's their share at this moment?

Joep van Beurden

Executives
#49

Still quite limited.

Maarten Verbeek

Analysts
#50

Because that's below 5%.

Joep van Beurden

Executives
#51

I wouldn't even know -- I don't know if you have an idea, but it's quite limited. And it's been in place for a while, let's say, two years. Typically, when you start a project 2, it's going to materially generate revenue, you're talking about more than two years. It's just the reality of the business. So this is, as I mentioned earlier, this is a long-term -- this -- if we keep doing this, ultimately, you'll end up at 20% EBITDA with 10% growth. logically, that's going to be a while.

Jeroen Hemmen

Executives
#52

So basically -- so we did two things. We started. So one is using the pricing power we have based on the arguments that you mentioned to improve the margin on existing products. That is the 200-something basis points gross margin improvement. And in addition for new projects, but that will obviously then phase in the years to come.

Maarten Verbeek

Analysts
#53

When looking at 10% growth and EBITDA margin of above 20%, what kind of return on invested capital are you visiting on these projects?

Jeroen Hemmen

Executives
#54

That will be way accretive. So that is well above 30%.

Maarten Verbeek

Analysts
#55

What I did miss, and I do understand why I did miss it in the presentation, is your slide about making acquisitions to the three targets that should fill because why should you make acquisitions if you're now executing projects like this?

Joep van Beurden

Executives
#56

Well, I mean, this is the same answer that I mean I know you've asked this before. So acquisitions are always something we look at, but under very strict decisions. And it has to be accretive. It has to materially strengthen our position in one of the segments I talked about. We can think about INTORQ, which is robotics and automation. We can think about 3T, which is safety electronics. And if that's the case, and of course, we now have the financial leeway to consider that, then we will. But the default, and that's why it's not in there all the time. So this hasn't changed. But our default strategy is to focus in on the opportunities we see ahead of us organically.

Maarten Verbeek

Analysts
#57

But why make acquisitions if the growth do you envisage for making acquisitions of the acquired companies is 5% and EBITDA margin of more than 15%. And if you execute projects by itself, the growth is double as high and the margin is 100 bps higher and return on capital employed is even much, much higher.

Joep van Beurden

Executives
#58

Well, we made two acquisitions over the past 10 years. So that's maybe part of the answer. The other one is not -- let's not forget the 10% and the 20% before that is actually sort of the Kendrion that we're talking about, that's going to take a while. We have a lot of -- because the other thing here, we also talked about -- once we design into projects also in the past, some of these run for decades. So -- and of course, they're highly profitable and everything is great, but they're not necessarily at a 10% growth or 20% EBITDA, but they're still great businesses. So it will really take a while.

Maarten Verbeek

Analysts
#59

At the moment, there is a gap in gross margin between Industrial Brakes and IAC. Firstly, where do you see the most potential to increase? And secondly, I believe there will continuously be a gap between the two because of 3T.

Joep van Beurden

Executives
#60

Because, yes.

Jeroen Hemmen

Executives
#61

Yes, that's a large part of it. And also without IT -- 3T, sorry, IAC is a bit higher. But 3T is a large part because that is close to 100% added value.

Maarten Verbeek

Analysts
#62

But where do you see the most potential to improve?

Jeroen Hemmen

Executives
#63

I would say both. So IAC is working consistently on it and IB has made a big step. We definitely will not be able to make a second big step like the first one, but we see, yes, room for improvement there as well.

Maarten Verbeek

Analysts
#64

In the previous P&L accounts, was still assets-for-sale that was amongst others, the real estate in Austria.

Jeroen Hemmen

Executives
#65

Yes.

Maarten Verbeek

Analysts
#66

I don't see that in the balance sheet anymore, but I don't believe it has been sold.

Jeroen Hemmen

Executives
#67

It has not been sold. I mentioned it has been reclassified from held-for-sale. So I think it was mentioned before, there was soil pollution found that dates from before 1990. But yes, that obviously did not help with the sale. So we were in discussion with the authorities on what to do. That has now been concluded. So a provision has been taken for a net EUR 300,000 and that will be sufficient to clean it up. And then obviously, also the likelihood of selling when now this is clear has improved. But in discussion with the auditor, they want it. even though now the chance of selling it has increased, IFRS says, yes, you have not done it for a couple of years, so now you have to put it back on the balance sheet. But it has not been solved and the idea is still to sell it.

Maarten Verbeek

Analysts
#68

Okay. And then talking about CBU, could you more or less indicate what the share is of their revenue for Knorr-Bremse and for Kendrion?

Jeroen Hemmen

Executives
#69

At the moment?

Maarten Verbeek

Analysts
#70

Yes.

Jeroen Hemmen

Executives
#71

[ 40 ]

Maarten Verbeek

Analysts
#72

Okay. And then lastly for the moment, you sold your China business, but you also would receive kind of fees of royalties or whatever. How much was that in '25?

Jeroen Hemmen

Executives
#73

Very limited because the deal closed on the 22nd of October. So I think it was EUR 100,000 or something.

Joep van Beurden

Executives
#74

But that is -- I mean, we see that going forward, but that remains intact.

Usama Tariq

Analysts
#75

Usama Tariq, ABN AMRO ODDO BHF. I just have a small question. How is your capacity utilization going currently? And going forward, if you have to scale up, how easy it is to add shifts? Do you have the trade personnel to do that?

Jeroen Hemmen

Executives
#76

Yes. So that varies greatly for the different lines. But let's say, generally, we operate at two shifts for five days. And yes, three shifts for five days is, of course, something that you can do. And even when needed, you can go for to six days, three shifts. So there is sufficient room for growth. Obviously, there will be some pressure on getting the people onboarded. So if it happens from one day to the other, then that will be a challenge. But yes, I would say, sufficient room for growth with existing capacity.

Joep van Beurden

Executives
#77

Yes, Tijs.

Tijs Hollestelle

Analysts
#78

Tijs Hollestelle, ING, again. What was the question? Yes. You mentioned the nuclear-related products.

Joep van Beurden

Executives
#79

Yes.

Tijs Hollestelle

Analysts
#80

What is the, let's say, the average selling price of those kind of products? And if I would look at, let's say, the economics of the total investment and the length of it, is it then attractive?

Joep van Beurden

Executives
#81

Yes. This is, by the way, is an example of a product we've had for a long, long time. This is not newly designed. That's also why we're already -- we are designed into certify of these upgrades and newly builds. The other thing is the certification for these valves, as you can probably well imagine, is just incredible. So we believe that in the U.S. and the EU, we believe we are the only one that actually is certified and that gives you clearly a strong position. ASP varies a bit, depends on the type of documentation you need to deliver with it. Believe it or not, that the documentation is so intense that the cost for that is usually -- can even exceed the cost of the valve because all the safety requirements. But you can think anywhere between EUR 10,000 to EUR 40,000 per valve depending on the exact type, depending on the documentation requirement, et cetera, whether it's a new build or an upgrade. And as I mentioned, there's around 10 of these per project. So currently in the order book, you're thinking you're talking about, say, 300, 350 of these products. Of course, not all in one year, you understand that.

Tijs Hollestelle

Analysts
#82

But it is still a kind of a recurring business, so it's also replacing.

Joep van Beurden

Executives
#83

It's growing. going I mean as the need and the realization that nuclear power across the world in terms of the energy transition is a great sort of backup source if there is no wind and no solar. China alone has 30 new nuclear power plants being constructed as we speak. So we expect that, and that's another example of something you're going to be in there, they're not going to change you. So you're in there for decades. And once you have the reputation that you can actually do this and be compliant.

Tijs Hollestelle

Analysts
#84

And they're not going to switch.

Joep van Beurden

Executives
#85

They're not going to switch.

Tijs Hollestelle

Analysts
#86

And then basically a bit of a similar question on the client concentration or whatever you want to call it, but in, for instance, robotics or in your Integrated Safety Systems business, can you name a couple of key customers where the exposure is a little bit higher?

Joep van Beurden

Executives
#87

Yes. Automation and robotics, which we lump together. So the biggest one on the IB side for Siemens has been for a long time.

Tijs Hollestelle

Analysts
#88

In multiple products, I guess, then.

Joep van Beurden

Executives
#89

That's right. The will they go. And basically, they are integrated together at Siemens in server motors and the server motors go everywhere, including robotics, all sorts of automation applications, et cetera, like AGVs, et cetera, et cetera.

Tijs Hollestelle

Analysts
#90

Do you have other names?

Joep van Beurden

Executives
#91

Yes. No.

Jeroen Hemmen

Executives
#92

Yes, there's a list in the annual report. So, Lenze, Bosch, SEW, Toyota, but then not the car manufacturing, but for AGVs and trucks.

Tijs Hollestelle

Analysts
#93

If it's in the annual report, it's fine. I know that you published something on that.

Jeroen Hemmen

Executives
#94

Yes, there are 20 names in. 10 for IAC and 10 for IB.

Tijs Hollestelle

Analysts
#95

Okay. That's helpful. And then I also noticed, I mean, you sent us a slide with the revised quarterly numbers, I think a couple of months ago, the Excel sheet. Is the breakdown between IAC and industrial brake on Slide 20, is that also the right way going forward? Are those also the adjusted numbers?

Jeroen Hemmen

Executives
#96

Yes.

Tijs Hollestelle

Analysts
#97

Okay. And then because you also make a remark that first half last year was kind of weak. I don't see that really in those numbers. Is that something I should take into account here? The quarterly numbers, revenue number.

Jeroen Hemmen

Executives
#98

Revenue number. Yes, yes. But yes, the -- so we had a decrease of 2% in the year, while Q4 was a 7% increase. So first half year was down. So I don't know by heart exactly the number, but it was significantly down compared to '24.

Joep van Beurden

Executives
#99

That is also related to that. So if you look at the momentum throughout '25, of course, let's not extrapolate because we talked about that. But the second half was stronger than the first and Q4 was stronger than Q3.

Tijs Hollestelle

Analysts
#100

Yes. Okay. But let's say, the Q1, Q2 divisional numbers on revenue are not terrible in the first half of '25.

Jeroen Hemmen

Executives
#101

Or if you compare, let's say, the quarter-by-quarter in the '25, yes. But there -- I think you alluded to it. So traditionally, if you have a completely flat economic situation, Q1 and Q2 are by far the strongest than Q3 because of holiday season is weaker and Q4 is still weaker because December is typically half a month. And so the fact that we kept it stable says something about the strength in Q4, and yes, also the relative weakness in the first half year.

Tijs Hollestelle

Analysts
#102

That is what I was looking for.

Joep van Beurden

Executives
#103

Any final questions? No. Then I would like to thank you very much for your attention and also for the many questions. And if you have any follow-on, then you know where to find us. Thank you very much.

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