Klöckner & Co SE (KCO) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

All right. So I would suggest to get started. Hello, everyone. This is Fabian Joseph from Investor Relations. Also on behalf of my entire team, I wish you a warm welcome to our Q2 2025 conference call. With me today are our CEO, Guido Kerkhoff; our CFO, Oliver Falk; and our CEO, Americas, John Ganem. They will guide you through the presentation. And afterwards, we are happy to take your questions then. With that, I'd like to hand over to you, Guido.

Yes. Thanks, Fabien, and welcome to our Q2 '25 conference call. And it looks like technically this time, it works compared to the last call. Before we dive into the highlights of the quarter, let me briefly emphasize the environment we faced and in which we showed a solid performance. The second quarter continued to be shaped by a persistently challenging market environment. The general market environment was characterized by a high degree of economic uncertainty in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions and partly unresolved global trade disputes. This also affects the demand in our core customer industries. Despite the aforementioned development, we posted a solid operating performance in the second quarter. I will now begin with the financial highlights of the quarter. Shipments came in at 1,164,000 tons and therefore, remained at a constant level year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. Given the current environment, this is clearly a strong signal, and it's driven by continued positive development in the segment Kloeckner Metals Americas, while our segment Kloeckner Metals Europe experienced a continued challenging macroeconomic environment with a decline in shipments. We'll take a closer look at our segments later. Sales came in at EUR1.6 billion, considerable year-over-year decrease despite stable shipments. This is clearly due to the year-over-year lower average price level. However, steel prices in the U.S. saw a broad recovery compared to year-end '24 levels due to implemented tariffs. We achieved a considerable year-over-year increase in gross profit, and that's really an important step forward. This gross profit margin also improved compared to the previous year. So the underlying margin mix despite the challenging environment was good. EBITDA before material special effects, therefore, came in at EUR65 million, considerable increase both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. This increase was driven by our segment Kloeckner Metals Americas. Despite a challenging market environment, we generated a positive operating cash flow in the second quarter of EUR75 million, a considerable increase year-over-year as well. Net financial debt increased compared to the level of Q2 '24 and Q1 '25. However, it has already decreased considerably quarter-over-quarter after a seasonal buildup at the beginning of the year. Let's now have a look at our performance in Q2 '25 by segment. Now segment Kloeckner North America shipments increased slightly year-over-year in Q2 '25. The development would have even been stronger if we excluded shipments from our divested Brazilian entity in Q2 '24. In total, we reached a new record level, a clear proof that our growth strategy is working. The shipments increase was achieved despite the according to local Steel Association's overall negative development in the North American market. This development clearly demonstrates our ability to outperform competitors and gain market share. However, due to the lower average price level sales in Q2 came in considerably below the previous year's quarter. At the same time, prices have increased significantly compared to year-end '24, primarily driven by the imposed tariffs. EBITDA before material special effects came in at EUR 66 million in Q2, more than doubling the result of the first quarter. In our segment, Kloeckner Metals Europe, shipments were considerably below the previous year's quarter and sales were slightly below the previous year's quarter, driven by persistently weak demand and increased economic uncertainty stemming from both announced and implemented U.S. tariffs, which weighted on our core industries. Our German service center business was particularly affected by lower-than-expected offtake from the automotive industry, while customers from our other industries partly offset the weakness in the automotive, contrary to the overall market trend. Consequently, EBITDA before material special effects in our segment Kloeckner Kloeckner Metals Europe came in negative at EUR 2 million in Q2. However, it improved considerably quarter-over-quarter and month by month towards the end of the second quarter, we were better than in the beginning. Now let's have a look at our strategic progress in the recent months. We continue to further expand our higher value-added business through targeted investments in both of our regions. First, let's have a look at North America. In response to the rapidly growing demand for transformer cores and electrical steel slip coil, we've made a significant investment in the Monterrey area of Mexico. Electrical steel plays a critical role in enabling efficient energy transfer, especially in transformers, which are the heart of electrification and energy infrastructure. This investment directly supports key growth markets, particularly electric grid infrastructure, renewable energy and data centers, areas facing a substantial demand overhang and substantial order backlog. We've constructed a new state-of-the-art fabrication and service center that expands our cold-rolled grain-oriented processing capabilities. The facility includes advanced slitting and transformer core fabrication lines, enabling us to significantly scale production. We're on track to have this new center fully operational in Q3, positioning us to serve the North American market even better. Now let's take a closer look at our strategic progress in Europe. In our German organization, we've continued to strengthen our operational positioning. We installed a new press brake that enables autonomous bending of flame and laser cut parts. The integration of Ambo Stahl is fully on track and enables us to capitalize on increased defense spending, enhancing our strategic position within the supply chain and strengthening our role as supplier of the defense industry. In Switzerland, we did a small-sized acquisition, Simfloc, a specialist in pre-wall installation, [indiscernible] flocculation located in town. This acquisition extends our building installation value chain, enhancing our service offering in the Swiss market. It also establishes us as the country's leading one-stop shop for prefabrication, providing an end-to-end solution from planning to modeling to production and installation. With that, I'd like to hand over to Oliver for a closer look at the financials. There's connection issues. I continue. I already mentioned the environment we're faced with. So steel prices were subject to considerable volatility as shown in the upper part of the slide. In the U.S., hot-rolled coal prices increased significantly after the end of the year, partly driven by announced and implemented tariffs and fell slightly in the second quarter. Also, the European market faced headwinds of declining demand and generally weaker price dynamics. Regarding EBITDA before material special effects, we achieved a considerable increase year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. In total, we generated EUR 65 million in the second quarter. In the first half of '25, EBITDA before material special effects came in at EUR 107 million, which also represents a considerable increase year-over-year. Our strategy execution is fully on track, and we are continuously improving our underlying profitability. Despite the continued challenging market environment, we achieved a positive cash flow from operating activities of EUR 75 million in Q2. Our digitalization and automation initiatives remain part of the strategic pillar operational excellence in our strategy. Hence, we continue to leverage our digitalization and automation initiatives. We're able to increase the number of digital quotes by 5.4% year-over-year in the first half of the year. Let's now take a look at our shipment sales, gross profit and gross profit margin of the second quarter. Shipments developed constantly compared to the level of the previous quarter. This development is driven by the continued positive development of our segment Kloeckner Metals Americas, while our segment Kloeckner Metals Europe continued to face a challenging environment, negatively affecting demand. Sales decreased considerably year-over-year due to the overall lower average price level and came in at EUR 1.6 billion in Q2. Gross profit, though, came in at EUR 320 million in Q2 after EUR 294 million in Q2 '24, a considerable increase and margin increased considerably year-over-year from 16.6% to 19.5%. So despite the weak environment we're facing, our shift towards more value-add and higher-margin business is clearly visible. And this is true for both regions, North America and Europe. So the underlying margin is improving, which shows that our strategy is clearly paying off even in this difficult environment. We'll now focus on the EBITDA for Q2 '25. EBITDA before material special effects came in at EUR 65 million. There was no volume effect year-over-year as shipment volumes remained stable. However, we did benefit from a positive price effect of EUR 34 million compared to the same quarter last year, which contributed significantly to the result. Here you see again that the positive margin effect pays off. OpEx were EUR 8 million higher year-over-year, mainly due to higher personnel and shipment expenses. We also faced negative ForEx effects of EUR 3 million, primarily driven by the weaker U.S. dollar, which impacted the translation of earnings from our U.S. operations. Finally, material special effects were mainly related to restructuring expenses. We're now coming to cash flow and net debt development. Second quarter of '25 with a net working capital release of EUR 43 million. Taking into consideration interest tax payments and other items totaling EUR 31 million, our cash inflow from operating activities came in positive at EUR 75 million in Q2. Including CapEx of EUR 31 million, free cash flow was positive at EUR 44 million. Let's take a look at our net financial debt. Positive effects were visible to ForEx translation mainly due to the aforementioned weaker U.S. dollar, while negative effects were visible for leasing and the dividend for our shareholders. Consequently, our net debt increased considerably from EUR914 million -- decreased considerably, sorry, from EUR914 million at the end of the first quarter to EUR870 million. Moreover, leverage came down considerably quarter-over-quarter and continue to do so as we execute our Kloeckner & Co leveraging strength Step Up 2030 strategy. I now hand over to John to have a closer look at our end markets in North America.

Thank you, Guido. Let me start with a general overview of the market situation in North America. The U.S. economic outlook remains quite uncertain and difficult to assess or predict, and GDP is showing significant volatility over the first half. This is primarily due to major swings in net imports resulting from rapid changes in trade policy. Consumer spending and fixed investment contributed to growth in both quarters, which is a positive and important development. However, overall momentum does appear to be slowing. And while a recession looks to be avoidable, risks remain high and overall growth is likely to remain constrained at levels well below the economy's potential. As such, demand for metals in both the U.S. and Mexico have faced headwinds over the first half of 2025, and this is likely to persist through the second half of the year. This is evidenced by, as Guido mentioned, an approximate 2% decline in year-over-year service center first half shipments as indicated by industry -- leading industry benchmarking data. Slowing economic growth, higher for longer interest rates, stubborn inflation and trade policy uncertainty are all combining to constrain business investment and consumer confidence. As a result, we now expect demand for metals in North America to be generally flat year-over-year with more downside risk than upside potential, at least in the short term. As noted earlier as well, despite this challenging demand environment, metal prices are actually significantly higher versus the start of the year across all major product lines. This positive development is primarily due to the reimplementation and then expansion of Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs. Prices have remained range bound for the past 6 to 8 weeks and could potentially move higher later in the year when the full impact of expected lower import volumes begins to reduce available supply. Now looking at expected development in the specific market segments. Construction activity is moderating and both residential and nonresidential building square footage is forecasted to be flat in 2025. Nonbuilding investment in infrastructure are forecasted to grow strongly and will continue to provide a partial offset to the slowing growth trends in the building sectors. All segments are expected to return to a more positive growth trajectory heading into 2026. Manufacturing activity continues to be under pressure with the ISM index in negative growth territory for the past 5 months. We expect the challenging situation in manufacturing to persist in the near term. New orders for industrial and off-highway equipment continue to be under pressure and are expected to be down significantly in 2025. Demand from these key segments has been severely constrained since summer of 2024 as OEMs curtailed production to rebalance supply chain inventories. With that said, third quarter 2025 OEM forecasts have actually been trending higher, indicating that actual production may soon be better reflective of actual underlying demand. Trade policy clarity and lower interest rates should help these key steel consuming segments regain more positive momentum in 2026. Turning to Transportation. This segment has been the most impacted by changing trade policy as well as the recent removal of EV tax credits. As a result, North American production has been declining and is now expected to be down year-over-year. Auto sales have been fairly resilient, so we do expect positive growth in production to return once automakers can adjust tariff impact to supply chains and implement new production strategies in response to changing consumer demand and trade policy dynamics. On the defense shipbuilding front, activity remains very positive with Kloeckner’s current defense program set to grow strongly with large contract commitments already in hand through the year 2032. We are also working closely with key mill partners to position ourselves strategically to support and benefit from what is expected to be a significant increase in defense shipbuilding investments over the next decade. Thanks to resilient consumer spending and stable building construction trends, appliance, HVAC and electrical demand have held steady and are expected to deliver flat to slightly positive year-over-year growth, while also noting that 2024 was a very strong year for these industry segments, meaning that despite limited growth expectations for 2025, demand remains quite strong in absolute terms. Energy continues to be the most active steel-consuming segment with highly positive growth expectations for extraction activity and a solid pipeline of both renewable power and power transmission projects. While renewable growth may come under pressure in future years due to recent changes in government policy, it appears that power transmission growth will be unrelenting and should be up approximately 35% in 2025. Modernizing and expanding the North American transmission infrastructure is critical to support the expected massive demand increase for electricity across North America, especially in support of data centers. The strategic electrical steel expansion that Guido referred to earlier appears well timed and optimally positioned to benefit from these positive trends. So I'll end with a few comments and observations and also to reemphasize some of Guido's earlier comments. Despite short-term market demand headwinds and declining service center shipments, the Kloeckner Americas business, excluding the discontinued Brazilian operations, continues to outperform by generating record shipping levels in Q2 2025, continuing to gain impressive market share and achieving a remarkable 35-plus percent increase in year-over-year first half EBITDA. These extremely positive and resilient results are clear proof that our transformative [ HVA-B ] investment strategy is working and delivering strong financial returns. We are highly confident these positive trends will continue in the second half of 2025 and even further accelerate as we head into 2026 as already approved investments come online and begin contributing in a meaningful way. Finally, we remain extremely optimistic about the long-term demand fundamentals in both the U.S. and Mexico and are committed to strategically positioning our North American business to take advantage of the significant growth opportunities that should develop as trade policy stabilizes, reshoring trends continue, manufacturing activity recovers and steel demand begins expanding once again in the not-too-distant future. So with that, I'll turn it back over to Guido for an update on Europe.

Thanks, Tom. By avoiding a trade war between the U.S. and the EU, overall uncertainty has been reduced. Still, the adverse effects of tariffs impacted and will impact our European end markets to a certain degree. Overall, we expect wheel steel demand in Europe to remain stable to slightly negative at around minus 1% in '25. This represents a downward revision compared to our last conference call in '25, primarily due to the aforementioned adverse effects on tariffs and overall economic uncertainty. Starting with the construction industry, we now expect a broadly stable development in '25, whereas we anticipated a slightly positive development at the beginning of the year. The impact of recent rate cuts has yet to be fully seen in the market, which was also affected by the overall weaker economic development. However, structural drivers remain intact, underpinned by German infrastructure spending, providing midterm growth, and there's still a big need for residential buildings to be constructed. Manufacturing machinery and mechanical engineering, a sector where we now also see a slightly weaker outlook than anticipated at the time of our last call. We now expect a slight decline in '25. sectors negatively affected by implemented tariffs, especially in Germany, where the industry is more export-oriented. However, Germany's fiscal stimulus package should provide strong growth for defense in the coming years. With the integration of Ambo Stahl fully on track, we position ourselves to benefit. And once again, as you've seen in the -- as I already mentioned in my comments to the service center business in Europe, we could grow in this segment our German operations coming from a weaker '24. So it seems there we're back on track to win again. Transportation, let's first focus on automotive sector where we see no major change since last call. U.S. tariffs on automotive imports continue to create headwinds, especially for German auto exporters, even though the now decided level is less than previously discussed. But again, here, some customers and some talks we're currently leading indicate that there might be some increases in certain models and in certain demands for the second half remains to be seen how it comes through. So uncertainty is still there, the overall market is slightly negative. Now coming to shipbuilding. While the commercial segment in shipbuilding may get more under pressure due to increased economic uncertainty, we're well positioned in the gray ship sector to benefit from upcoming demand in defense. Household and commercial appliances segment with marginal impact on our European business, we expect, nevertheless, an output to contract in '25 due to weak demand, trade pressures and policy uncertainty. Energy industry growth is expected to remain constant in '25, reflecting subdued utility demand and weak economic momentum. However, long-term demand remains supported by the electrification of transport and heating. Now let's come to an outlook. the financial outlook for the third quarter '25 and the full year. For Q3, despite the aforementioned challenging market environment, we expect a considerable increase in shipments and sales compared to the previous year. EBITDA before material special effect is expected to come in between EUR 40 million and EUR80 million, also a considerable increase year-over-year. Looking at the full year '25, we now expect a slight increase in both shipments and sales compared to the previous year, which represents a downward revision from our earlier forecast. As a result, EBITDA before material special effects for full year '25 is expected to come in between EUR 170 million and EUR240 million, considerable increase year-over-year. Further, we expect operating cash flow to come in significantly positive on the strong level of '24. We're now happy to answer your questions.

So I can see the first question from Boris from Kepler Cheuvreux.

Can you hear me?

Yes, we can hear you.

Perfect. I have 2 questions. The first is on the guidance. If we add up the nonrecurrence of the negative windfall impact last year, which was around EUR 100 million from the starting base, we arrived at EUR 230 million something. The midpoint of your guidance today points to a bit more than EUR 200 million. So I would be interested to know which elements of caution there is in the guidance and which are the main reasons for being more cautious? That's the first question. And the second is on free cash flow for the full year. Do you expect a positive free cash flow for the full year?

Yes. Boris, let me start with the guidance. Your calculation is correct, the EUR 136 million plus EUR 100 million, especially what we see now in Europe that prices have been declining and the price effects are not positive supporting. So the calculation how the year-end, given all the uncertainties that we currently see will be and where our windfall will be for the full year is unclear. And as we don't see on the volume side, it's too early in the year, still summer break. So there are mixed signals, as I try to guide you is we do have some customers that announced and clearly give us a signal that the second half in Europe, especially will be stronger than the first. We haven't seen it come through as still summer break is there. So there are in this quite a bit more open points to see how the second quarter will be -- the second half will be. So that currently, there is a broader range we have to provide for. And if the trends continue and you see most of the announcement, negative expectation from European companies for the second half, then volume and price-wise, we might have some impact so that we can't realize the EUR136 million plus EUR 100 million as you indicated, and that's what we try to reflect in the guidance. But I think with the third quarter, we will see how finally, especially in Europe, it will turn out. And Europe and U.S., as Tom outlined, is given all the uncertainties we had and the gambling around the tariffs is short term a bit weaker on the demand as uncertainty is a natural growth. But now that most of the deals, especially on the tariff side have been done, I think companies can settle, but it remains to be seen when these effects will finally come through. And I fully agree to what John said. The midterm outlook is positive, and there are positive effects, not strongly positive in the U.S., but even in Europe, some positive signals, but the question is when will they come through and we needed to reflect that. And that's why the range is broader than we would like to have it. Free cash flow for the full year, yes, we expect it to be positive.

Okay. And just on the windfall, you mentioned the declining prices in Europe, but American prices are still up year-on-year. So how much of the windfall last year was linked to Europe and how much was linked to the Americas?

Kind of -- yes, I'd say 80-20.

So the next question comes from Lars Vom Cleff, Deutsche Bank.

I mean both of you for Europe and the U.S., you mentioned increasing defense spend and that you intend to profit from that. The background, I would be interested in finding out how much revenue you are already today generating with this customer sector and whether you can already give us any hint or how much you expect that to grow?

Well, on the defense spend, it's clearly going to increase, but it's not going to be there very short term and won't make such a big difference for the second half. Our numbers, especially in Europe, are still rather lower. I mean the Ambo Stahl acquisition we made is contributing, but it's one-digit item overall million revenues that we do there. We're working on the applications that we're ready once the pickup is there, we can do it. We are in the ship industry, in the gray ship industry, we have been active and we're growing in that one in the northern part of Germany. And as John outlined in the shipbuilding, he's active as well, where steel is clearly an important factor. But it's not huge numbers. So there is quite some upside potential for us. Maybe, John, you'd like to add.

Yes, yes. Obviously, we have the new investment in Brandenburg, Kentucky. That's certainly part of the strategy that we have is that that's going to help target defense type of opportunities. We're also looking at additional opportunities in the Gulf region, we'll have some investment concepts that we'll be pushing through. We really think that on the defense side, we could easily double and likely triple our current position.

Okay. And then regarding the German infrastructure package in general, I mean, many of your customer sectors will and should benefit from that. Is that something you can already see materializing in your P&L in '26? Or internally, are you rather planning for '27 to see that materially being beneficial for your P&L?

No, no, Lars. It's going to start in '26, but the pickup will take longer. So it's going to lead into '27 and will be higher in '27. But I clearly see it '26 already coming through.

Okay. And then the last one, if I may. U.S. tariffs, I know we have a deal, we don't have a deal, difficult. In the U.S., you're, of course, benefiting from higher steel prices. driven by the tariffs. With regards to your Mexican business and Metals Mexico, if I remember correctly, you said you would rather be indirectly impacted by that because your customers might then think about shifting capacity to the U.S. out of Mexico. Is that still the case? Or are you expecting any additional negative effects that we so far haven't talked about?

Let me start and you can add on the Mexican and U.S. But no, I think that especially now for Europe that we have the 15% and we have certainty, people can now settle and see what it means and how to deal with it. Again, our setup overall, be it in Europe or be it in North America, is vocal for local. So direct impact in our case are smaller. Now the indirect effects, we will see how strongly the 15% will affect exports from Germany into the U.S. They will, but maybe not to a degree that many have expected. On the part, Mexico and U.S., there's uncertainty in the consumer spend is there. USMCA, we have to see how that turns out. But there is still a big cost advantage of producing in Mexico and there's availability of people. And for example, in the electrical steel business, that's where we are. And in the U.S., you don't find these capabilities. But John, you may add to that.

Yes. We've certainly -- there was a risk of some indirect impacts where demand could be curtailed because of tariffs. We have yet to see that. And frankly, forecasts have been very consistent. I would say if there's been any impact, it's probably the rate of growth that we are expecting has probably slowed or come to a temporary halt, pending hopefully, a trade deal with Mexico and then ultimately a renewal and reset of the USMCA. But at this point, we don't see any indication of a negative impact on demand and our business has remained very, very stable, and we expect it to remain so and in fact, grow because of some of the new business that we've been able to obtain, and that will be ramping up in the second half of the year. So I think net-net, we'll still be growing in Mexico despite what is pretty much a flat situation right now.

And maybe to add is we're clearly not in Canada. So all the frictions between the United States and Canada are not affecting us.

[Operator Instructions] From me an e-mail as he's not able to attend the call. So I will read out the question on behalf of Thomas Schor. The business in Europe remains loss-making for the time being, even negative at the EBITDA level. What are your concrete expectations from the planned infrastructure spending and defense investments in Germany in the medium term? Are there any considerations to potentially adjust the portfolio in order to sustainably improve profitability?

First of all, I think for the mid and the longer term, the infrastructure and the defense, as we already outlined in the Q&A here, will be positive for us. I mean, given the current market environment we're seeing in Europe, which is really contracting and people are very cautious and demand is going down, auto production 20% down compared to pre-COVID levels. One clearly has to see that our strategic measures and initiatives to improve our European business show traction. You've seen quarter-over-quarter that our negative EBITDA improved, margin improved. And as I outlined, we saw in automotive and in industry, we do our forecast internally for the year growing volumes, which shows that we're back on track that we're working on the higher value businesses outside the service center business, we seem to be slightly growing in our market share again in a contracting market. And in the KMG, the German market, with a higher value-add focus, we're losing volumes, but the margin level and the market mix is improving. And therefore, I think we're on the right track to continue that path forward to reduce losses and make our business in Europe self-funding and sustainable again. And I think we just need to continue. Unfortunately, the market environment and the volume and the margin shrinkage overall is not supportive, but step by step and month by month, we are improving in our performance.

The second question was regarding guidance, but I believe that was already answered. So I do not see any further questions. So I give to Guido for final remarks.

Yes. Thank you very much for attending the call. This time, it worked technically. So let's cross our fingers and see that we can continue with the new supply here. And if you have any other additional questions, just reach out to us. We're available today and clearly always. Thank you very much. Thank you. Bye.