Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG) Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

[Audio Gap] incoming CEO of Kongsberg from April this year as well as incoming Chief Financial Officer, Martin Wien Fjell. We will start by giving you a short summary of the presentation that I guess many of you have already seen from this morning before we open for Q&A. You will find a Q&A button on your screen. So please type in your questions there, and I will read them out for all the viewers. So with that, Eirik.

Thank you, and it's good to have a meeting with you all. I will give a short overview of some of the elements we discussed earlier today, if you haven't seen it. So I just want to highlight that as Kongsberg as in the future, we -- I would like to start with that Kongsberg has a strong home base, and we are growing very much internationally. So about 80% of what we are doing today is outside of Norway. And you can see on this slide that we have organized ourselves with 3 strong divisions. The first one on the left side is Defense Systems, where you can see NASAMS is part of that air defense system. And underneath that, that's the remote weapon stations. So that is part of that division. And then missiles and aerostructures with the JSM, Joint Strike Missile and the Naval Strike Missile as the strike missile we are selling to approximately 15 nations at the moment. And also, we are producing parts and composites, titanium parts for F-35. And then we have the third division, Discovery, mainly producing HUGIN, the Autonomous Underwater Vehicle and other sensors and robotics, especially operating in the commercial and also defense markets, while the 2 first divisions are operating in the defense market. I will also highlight that Discovery also includes the space business. In addition to these 3 divisions, we -- our business model is constructed so that we establish joint ventures, partnerships and co-ownerships. That is a really important part of our strategy. So that brings us closer to key partners and providing access to a broader customer base. On the right-hand side, you will see our financials and that they are strong. These numbers, they include the 50-50 JVs as well. So in 2025, we had NOK 33 billion in revenue, approximately NOK 5 billion in EBIT and the order backlog is NOK 138 billion. I just also want to highlight for those knowing us in details, we don't include Patria where we have an ownership of 49.9% in these numbers. Next. So this is some of the historic numbers for Kongsberg, which tells quite a lot of the growth path we are on. And we expect this growth to continue. But if you look at the left side here, when it comes to revenue and EBIT margin, I would say that we have a solid margin level throughout the growth period. At the same time, you can see that the growth started back in 2018 before the war in Ukraine. So we experienced a demand for our system already at that time, and we were able to do investments based on that. So we actually were ready when the war broke out in Ukraine. And if you so, we have tripled our revenues in a decade. And on the right side, you can see that this is an order backlog. And compared to -- if you look at the global defense procurement and compare it to our order intake, we outpaced the -- outgrow the global defense procurement by 3. So we are increasing more rapidly compared to that. This is a kind of quick look at our portfolio, ranging from underwater from undersea to space. And you see in the middle there, you can see NASAMS, you see NSM missile and you see remote weapon systems. Those are the main global positions we have taken. And I'd also like to highlight that when going forward, we see that the new frontiers in the battlefield are the deep sea and space, and we are very much focused on these segments as well as growing areas for us. And if you look at, I would say, the new Kongsberg, where we combined Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace and Kongsberg Discovery, this is a good match since Discovery has very much deep knowledge and systems and solutions for underwater systems and now also including the space. So to add those 2 elements together fits very much into the defense portfolio and makes us more focused on the defense market. But we also like to highlight that technology is very much important for us going forward. If we take the next one. Kongsberg has always been a high-tech supplier with what I would say is the best and most advanced solutions. And we see that technology and speed of innovations are really important elements also for the defense sector. But this innovation and the speed of innovation is taking place in the civilian part of what we are doing and also worldwide. So those are really important elements. You see on the left side there, what we call rapid innovation. I would say that we during the Ukraine war, there was a lack of counter-UAS systems. We were able to deliver what we call a platform counter-drone solution to Ukraine within 3 months after the ID was created to delivery, only 3 months. And now we do the same for unmanned surface vessels. So these are examples of how we can do rapid innovation and feel it quite quickly. We also experienced in Ukraine the need for high-volume production of cost-effective missiles and interceptors. So we did an acquisition of Zone 5, a U.S. company that gives us access to a fast-growing developer and producer of cost-effective missiles and that can be produced and manufactured at high volumes. And this will complement our -- both the strike missile portfolio and also the air defense missile portfolio with, I would say, high volume but to lower cost solutions. On the right-hand side, you see a typical dual-use technology. This is the HUGIN Autonomous Underwater Vehicle developed and produced by Discovery, which has a civilian and civilian use, but now will have also an applications usage towards the defense side. If I go on to the next one. And also, our products, as we have today, we need further development in these areas. So for instance, for the full spectrum air defense, which is important for us, we see that we have to plug in long-range capabilities towards anti-TBM systems at the same time, also counter-UAS anti-drone solutions. And with the strike missile portfolio, we continue our development. We have one high-end solution that we are currently developing together with Germany and Norway, which is a Supersonic Strike Missile, 3SM. And also this acquiring of Zone 5 for high-volume manufacturing is a very important part of that strike missile portfolio. And also underwater capabilities, which I said was one of the new important areas going forward, where we have Autonomous Underwater Vehicles. And also this area is also important for our critical infrastructure solutions. And on the right side, with the space capabilities, we call the space for Defense, typical during use area. And Kongsberg covers the whole value chain, everything from taking down data to being a producer of small satellites and also to handle the data. And that was a very short brief on some of the highlights earlier today and probably answer questions.

We have quite a few questions from the viewers. I'll start with a few questions from Magnus Rasmussen, SEB on -- around the contract you announced with Poland on counter-UAS recently. The first one is regarding today's comment from the Kongsberg CFO during the presentation. When the CFO guided for KDA growth for 2026 in line with 2025, meaning around 32%, had she then taken into account the effect of the Polish order last week?

Yes. The simple answer is yes. Just a few comments on the Poland contract. This is, how should I put it, an important contract because it's position ourselves in an important area where protection against drones in the air is a critical defense activity that needs to be highlighted. We see that in Ukraine. And I think this -- the magnitude of the contract in Poland establishes one solution that can be utilized in other countries going forward. But for now, for us, it's important to deliver on this contract and secure that we have a good solution in place.

Is it fair to assume, as we read in Polish media that the full NOK 16 billion worth of contract will be delivered within the end of 2027 or at least the main part of it?

Yes. What we say is that there is a quick delivery schedule here. We have initial deliveries this year in '26, and the main deliveries will be in '27. So -- and then a little bit into 2028 as well.

Thank you. On the anti-drone system, again, how should we think about capacity constraints on these type of products? And how much of the order will be covered from the Polish plant? And how can you -- can your supply chain keep up with this rapid delivery?

First of all, we -- initial deliveries will be done from facilities we have in Norway to secure that we are able to deliver within quite a short time frame. At the same time, we will establish an assembly line in Poland to secure that the next deliveries will be done from -- out from Poland facilities. And this is -- we have a good situation with the suppliers in this area. And so I think we have a good setting to be able to deliver on the promises in this case.

And one more on the Poland contract. How should we think about margins on such a delivery? Our understanding is that these products generally have higher margins at both segment level? Or should we expect some kind of first buy discount for Poland in this case?

I think we should look at this as a normal project with -- there are some integration that needs to take place. We have established a consortium between a Polish company, PGZ and ourselves. That is very important as part of being a strategic partner in Poland. And there's a lot of equipment to be delivered. So I would say that this is a typical normal program for us.

Thank you. Why have the margins in the Defense Systems division been slightly weaker recently? And can we expect them to recover back to the 20%, 21% area shown in the previous couple of years?

I think the simple answer here is that it's based on the product mix that will vary. And I will not comment going forward, but this will very much depend on when the different programs and projects are run and executed because this will be different, how this is played out. And if you have, let's say, development contracts, they will have not so high margin level compared to pure delivery contracts. So this is a mix that we -- a product mix that is relevant for why we are a little bit, I would say, up and down when it comes to margin level for Defense Systems.

And then on the Missiles and Discovery divisions, can those 2 divisions reach a sort of [ 22% ] level when it comes to margins eventually? Why or why not?

Well, I will not comment the level of margin level because it's -- as I said again, it depends on the project mix. And obviously, we are driving for a good margin level. I think we will continue the stable margin level we have already stated, which is where we want to be. And we need to secure also that we do necessary investments in what we are doing to secure that we stay relevant towards our customers and also stay ahead of the competition. So this is always a mix in how we want to position ourselves going forward.

Thank you. Over to satellites. Can you expand on your LEO satellite business? It seems like -- it seems you are the largest producer in the EU. And how do you compete in the cost curve against companies such as SpaceX?

Well, maybe a little bit in different categories there, but I think this is a pure commercial production of small satellites that we are in a commercial civilian setting with, but we will utilize these satellites we are producing also for defense applications, and we are using that. And so we keep the cost level at the same level. And then we can add on applications for the defense setting.

Can we expect the order momentum to continue expanding beyond 2025? Is the NOK 61 billion order intake sustainable into the next couple of years?

What I can say is that we see the growth in defense spending, for instance, in Europe to be on -- is continue. And all countries in NATO are trajectory towards the 3.5% and finally, 5% in 2035. So we see a growing demand for defense systems in general. And we expect to continue our growth path going forward as well.

Thank you. Then a question on standardized vessels or Vanguard more specifically. What do you see as potential when it comes to this project and both in the short term and in the longer term?

I think the standardized vessel program with Vanguard, we are now -- I can't say too much about it. It's a competition ongoing in Norway right now. What we are proposing is a very much solution based on standard chip platform, a standard design where we put different military equipment on. And we see that this could be a potential for harmonizing this kind of platform, especially in some parts of Europe going forward.

Your revenues have tripled over the past 5 years, yet your margins have stayed relatively stable at 15%. Why is that? And why are you not seeing more operating leverage in the business?

Well, I think we have been able throughout the growth period that we are in to secure that we stay with a stable margin level that is good. We continue to invest in what we are doing. And this is -- and also a different project mix. And we are able to do the scaling and delivery of our production capacity. So I think without decreasing the margin level. So I think that is also an important factor to bring into this equation.

And a few questions from Martin Granviken, Kepler. Does the delayed software rollout within the F-35 program affect the short-term Joint Strike Missile potential?

No, we don't see that. It's important that we do the final integration, but the missile itself has been accepted and approved. So it's the last step where it's integrated into F-35 that needs to be completed. But we don't see that as negatively affect our potential with JSM.

And with regards to counter-UAS and remote weapon stations again, how is the potential related to existing RWS PROTECTOR Systems without counter-UAS? What would be a typical contract value for an add-on to this functionality?

I think what we see generally in the market is that when you have vehicle programs in the different countries, they normally also want at least for a portion of the vehicles to have the remote weapon stations part of that vehicle. And we just today, as an example, announced that we -- and Patria sold a 6x6 vehicle to, for instance, Germany, we also will get the contract for our weapon stations as part of that contract. So we got EUR 140 million contract today because of that. And we see that in different vehicle programs that the need for -- a continued need for our Remote Weapon Systems are still there.

Since 2023, you have achieved an impressive annual book-to-bill above 2. How do you view the potential over the next years? For example, is the identified pipeline front-loaded? Or is it reasonable to expect the same trajectory?

It's -- I cannot go into all details there, but we expect to continue the growth we are seeing. So I cannot comment on how this will play out. But since we see the defense spending is increasing in the different countries we are very much involved in, that is also an indication that we will continue to grow.

Then a question from [indiscernible]. The 3SM Supersonic Strike Missile is planned to be fully developed around 2035. This appears to be a very long development time line, especially given the rapid pace at which other advanced weapon systems and technologies are being developed today by you. Please elaborate around this.

Yes. First of all, I would say that 3SM is a very different category compared to more of the rapid development cycles we have seen. So it's extremely sophisticated and -- but we are also trying to narrow down the development time to have it a little bit earlier. But I think the development is between Norway and Germany. It's a bilateral program with creating a unique capacity and to be the best in the market in 2035. So that's kind of the situation for 3SM. But I will also highlight that when acquiring Zone 5, we are not getting the same capacity at 3SM, but more equivalent to JSM, for instance, will be more of in this low-cost segment that can be produced in high volume. That will be very complementary to our current JSM and NSM.

Then a question from [indiscernible]. How are you using AI in your business today? And how important will this be in the future? Do your 3,000 software engineers already use AI coding tools like, for example, Quadcode? And what will these new AI coding tools mean for speed, efficiency and time to market?

Yes. We are using AI in certain applications today and also part of the solutions we are delivering. And going forward, this will be more and more important for the defense applications. And just imagine the amount of information you are receiving on how to deal with that. And also looking into the underwater applications, how to deal with that. What we foresee is that what you see in the drone setting in Ukraine in the air, the same will take place undersea. And this is an area where we see an advantage of using AI because of the automation between the different autonomous system there, just as an example. So this is and will be more and more important for us.

And then another question from Magnus Rasmussen, SEB. How much deliveries have you had to Ukraine in 2025? And how does that compare to 2024?

Well, I don't have the exact numbers there. But I would say that, well, Ukraine is really important for us. But if you compare it to the total revenue, it's about between, I think, 3% to 5% of our total revenue. So it's important, but not so significant when it comes to compare it to the total revenue of what we are doing.

And just to confirm, the recent counter-UAS contract with Poland signed last week is not in the backlog that you presented today?

Correct. That will -- that came in, in January. So that will be added on for Q1 '26.

And then you have been the President of Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace for close to 10 years now. How would you say this area has changed under your management?

Well, it's -- I would say it's -- when I started back in the 1990s, Kongsberg and the defense side was very much focused on Norway, on domestic applications and working with the Norwegian customer. And throughout 2000 and after 2010, very much was focused to secure that what we are doing in Norway will be also on the export market. So we can see that we have expanded from maybe 10% export back in the '90s. And now we have between 80% and 90% export on the international market. And that is a huge transformation of the company. And today, we are in a position. We used to be a niche defense supplier with certain extremely good products to what we are today, we are a what we could call a prime contractor being a strategic partner to governments and have a much larger impact on the decisions made in different countries when it comes to the defense side. So this is a huge transformation I've been part of. It's been really interesting to see how this has developed. And we can also see that because of the situation in the world with the Ukraine war, we can see that the world needs a company like Kongsberg.

And when it comes -- or do you have any constraints when it comes to capacity? And with regards to the supply chain, how do you work with the supply chain to kind of prepare them for the ramp-up that we are in and that most likely will continue for a while?

This is a very important question. And I would say that the supply chain is really critical for us, and we are constantly working together with the suppliers to secure that they do everything that is necessary to deliver what we need for our assembly or everything. And we can give all our suppliers a good visibility so that they can do the necessary investments and are able to ramp up their production so that we can meet expectations to our customers. So I think that is one side of it. The other side is that to have a resilient supply chain, that means you need more suppliers to deliver the same items, for instance. And that's why we are building up a -- well, first of all, production sites in Europe, in North America and also in Australia. And at the same time, build up local supply chains around these hubs. And that has -- and we are doing that now, and that is very important for us to secure that we are not having, for instance, one supplier that is not able to deliver, then we have multiple sources.

Thank you. It seems like that was the last question from the viewers tonight. So I would like to thank you all for attending and wish you all a good weekend.