Koninklijke BAM Groep nv (BAMNB) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
February 21, 2020
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
R. Wingerden
executiveGood morning, everyone. And welcome to the Analyst Meeting and audio webcast for the Royal BAM Group Full Year Results 2019. My name is Rob Van Wingerden. And with me today is Frans den Houter, our CFO. Also here is our Manager Investor Relations, Michel Aupers. Two things to mention upfront. First, as you will see, we have increased the disclosure in our press release and presentation slides to give you more insights into our performance and prospects. Second, as you know, I will shortly be passing on the helm of BAM. And for now, it's business as usual. I will do all I can to support Frans and the executive committee in the coming months. I will present the highlights for 2019 and the operational review. Frans will take you through the financial review, our strategy and outlook before we take your questions. Looking at the group operational result, 2019 was a year of 2 halves. The first half was overshadowed by the project losses we announced in July, resulting in a revised outlook for the year of 1%. Our second half was strong with an adjusted result margin of 2.7%. In terms of businesses, we saw strong performance at Dutch and Irish Construction and Property and our U.K. activities. All these businesses made margins of 2.5% to 4%, and BAM PPP had an excellent year, growing its own future cash flows and generating future revenues for BAM companies. On the other hand, there was a disappointing performance at Construction Germany, BAM International and the Dutch Civil engineering. As mentioned earlier, we are taking urgent actions to improve these businesses by strengthening management, reviewing product market combination and continuing to be highly selective on tendering and improving project execution. Below the results, the adjusted results, we had some restructuring costs and noncash impairments. So the net result for the year was EUR 11.8 million. Our proposed dividends of EUR 0.02 cash per ordinary share is a payout ratio of 46% of that net result, 46%. Our order book at the end of 2019 was in line with the end of 2018 while we continue to focus on quality above volume. 2019 was a good year for our trade working capital and cash position. Overall, the economies we are operating in are in good shape, although growth momentum is somewhat weakening. At the same time, interest rates are low, which is positive for governments, consumers and commercial clients of BAM. This is supportive for our residential property development activities. In the Netherlands, the demand for homes remains high, but growth is mitigated by the low supply of land positions and slow permitting process. Looking to Civil engineering, markets remain highly competitive and the risk/reward ratio is a concern and needs to be improved. The implementation of new legislation regarding nitrogen and PFAS is impacting our order backlog while the longer-term impact of Brexit is unknown. Supply chain pressure is still present but seems to decrease slightly. There is clearly positive momentum for sustainable solutions, which provides opportunities for our products assessed only 100 -- to the A List, and BAM is 1 of the 5 only in the new certified. This makes BAM one of the first fully certified international construction companies, which is important for an increasing number of clients. BAM's concrete 3D printing solution, which has been developed in the Netherlands is now also introduced to some clients in the U.K. Now we are going to discuss the different business lines, starting with Construction and Property. And this picture shows the new landmark building Forum in Groningen, which recently opened its doors. On this slide, you see the performance per country in Construction and Property. This is a new disclosure in order to give you more insight into our underlying performance. We delivered margins of 3% to 4% in the Netherlands, the U.K. and Ireland. And in the Netherlands, nitrogen and PFAS had little effect so far in terms of our results and order book in 2019. Brexit uncertainty contribute to a decline in our U.K. construction order book in 2019. On the other hand, we won new framework agreements for public sector construction projects. We continue to monitor the situation as the U.K. goes through Brexit transition. The disappointing performance in Germany resulted in a loss of EUR 57.5 million. In the second half, there were additional costs on projects in execution and some impairments of older claims. The new management team is improving order intake processes and project execution. At BAM International, the result included the loss on the earlier mentioned large project in the Middle East and excess company-tied costs. Discussions with the client in the Middle East are ongoing. However, the timing and the amount of settlement remain uncertain. We have installed new management and are streamlining this business to reduce its cost base. The margin in Belgium was low, but the result improved in the second half of 2019. We are realigning our construction activities in Belgium to serve our clients better. Let's look at the Dutch property activities. The Dutch residential market continues to do well. House sales in the Netherlands were up by 5% for the year as we had guided you in August. We are one of the leaders in Dutch property development. We maintain a strong pipeline of our own developments in major cities. One example is the CROSSOVER project at Amsterdam Zuidas, which consists of 130 homes and 12,000 square meter commercial development. The gross investment in property reduced by EUR 33 million to EUR 531 million. This includes several smaller value adjustments of property positions for a total of EUR 8.2 million. This picture shows the Thames Tideway Tunnel, a super sewer project being executed by BAM Nuttall and our tunneling experts from Germany. The adjusted result before tax of EUR 3.6 million include additional costs of EUR 22 million in the first half. The performance in the second half was stronger overall with a contribution of EUR 23 million. Our Dutch Civil engineering had a difficult year. The result on several smaller midsized projects deteriorated. Compared to '18, OpenIJ developed more favorably. The second casing was emerged successfully and the banks resumed funding. The loss provision on OpenIJ was reduced by approximately EUR 4 million in the fourth quarter, lowering the total loss for the year to EUR 4.1 million and making the cumulative loss -- difficult word, EUR 111 million. This project is now 80% complete. Results in the U.K. improved during the second half as expected in a generally positive marketplace. Civil engineering in Germany also improved significantly in the second half, helped by a partial compensation of the extra cost of the loss-making project mentioned in July and the claim settlement. BAM International showed, on the other hand, a significant loss due to undercoverage of overhead and a legal dispute on a completed project. We conclude that the overall performance of Civil engineering was not satisfactory and we are taking actions to improve. In our Civil engineering business, going forward, we are adjusting our product market focus in some important areas. In the Netherlands, we have been talking to public clients -- public sector clients, for several quarters on how to improve the risk/reward balance. As things stand, we are extremely cautious about getting the risk/reward balance when tendering, especially for projects where our share will be above EUR 150 million. For tunnel projects, we are only tendering for projects in our home markets. In the U.K., we are increasingly focusing on clients which offer 2-stage tenders. BAM International is lowering its cost base and focusing on near-shore projects. We announced in the first half that we exit the market for offshore wind foundation. We do see market opportunities where we can bring sustainable solution and leverage synergies within BAM. Moving to PPP. On this slide, you see the M11 Gorey to Enniscorthy, a project of BAM Ireland and PPP. This was completed ahead of schedule during 2019. In the last decade, BAM PPP has showed solid growth and predictable performance. We started in the United Kingdom and now have a strong presence in all our home countries. BAM PPP delivered an exceptionally strong performance with an adjusted PBT of EUR 27.2 million, coming not only from the existing portfolio but also from 3 refinancing transactions. In PPP, we added 2 new projects to the portfolio, with the final close of Cross River Rail in Australia and Silvertown Tunnel in the United Kingdom. This week, we announced the financial close of Dendermonde Prison project in Belgium, a good start of the year for BAM PPP. In addition, 2 contracts were completed and 1 project was transferred to our joint venture partner, PGGM. Our portfolio now consists of 40 operational projects, of which 35 with an ex-equity stake and 9 under construction. The PPP portfolio also provides recurring operations and maintenance revenues of approximately EUR 150 million per year for other BAM companies. We decided to provide more information regarding the future cash flows over -- in BAM PPP related to our equity stakes. These are underwritten by governments or government-backed organizations in stable countries with a solid debt reputation, like, for instance, U.K., Netherlands, Ireland and Germany. This additional information gives you extra insights into the underrealized value of the portfolio. The table on this slide shows the valuation of the portfolio at various discount rates. Using a discount rate of 11%, we arrive at an underrealized value of EUR 69 million. Using a discount rate of 5%, we arrive at EUR 162 million. This is in addition to the book value of EUR 80 million. The graph below shows the future cash flows of our equity stakes over the coming years. Overall, our equity stakes will result in more than EUR 400 million of cash flows up to the year 2051. Important to note, the graph only shows the cash flows from the equity stakes. BAM PPP is an integral part of the group, providing stable project management and investment returns, and the resource -- and is a resource of EPC and maintenance contracts. Over to you, Frans.
L.F. Houter
executiveThank you, Rob. And good morning, everyone. So let me start with explaining the income statements. The adjusted PBT for the year totaled EUR 74 million, which makes an adjusted profit before tax margin of 1%. There are noncash impairments pretax of EUR 18.5 million. The majority relates to the impairment of intellectual property for the gravity-based foundations for offshore wind turbines as also reported in the first half year. The remaining part is the impairments and value adjustments on a handful of property positions as also mentioned by Rob. The income tax line for the full year of EUR 38.7 million is significant compared to the PBT. This is best explained by a EUR 24.6 million noncash impairments on deferred tax assets related to performance of the Dutch and German fiscal entities. All in all, the net results attributable to shareholders was EUR 11.8 million. On cash flow. We report a strong business cash flow of EUR 141 million, driven by a positive net cash result and a strong trade working capital improvement. The adoption of IFRS 16 has no impact on the cash flows of the company. The positive effect of the implementation on the line item group net cash result was EUR 105 million. And there was a negative impact on the line item investment intangible assets for EUR 105 million. The main driver for our strong cash flow is the positive development of trade working capital, which I will discuss on the next slide. The cash from trade working capital improved significantly due to the lower accounts receivable, partly offset by lower accounts payable. There were also the benefits of the advanced payments of a few new contracts and the restart of funding of OpenIJ. Important to note, on average, BAM's payment performance to suppliers has been stable. We are rolling out a company-wide credit management tool. In addition, we remain focused on minimizing the dispute resolution times. Our trade working capital efficiency was minus 10.4% versus minus 8.8% last year, with a strong performance in the fourth quarter. As a company, we are comfortable with the level of around minus 10%. This brings us to our financial position. Our cash position increased by EUR 110 million to a total of EUR 854 million. In 2019, we divested some leveraged property position, which partly explains the movement in interest-bearing debt. Taking this into account, our net cash increased by EUR 182 million to a total of EUR 583 million, excluding leases. Our strong cash position is also illustrated by the fact that we did not use our EUR 400 million credit facility throughout the year. Our capital ratio declined to 16.5% versus the end of 2018. Without the impact of IFRS 16, this would have been 17.6%. The underlying movements in equity is also partly due to the noncash impact of interest rate changes and ForEx movements. Furthermore, as I explained in the first half, we took the opportunity to partly derisk our pension obligations, which resulted in a negative equity movement of EUR 29 million. This slide is labeled Resilience Through Financial Strength and it's another new disclosure which helps you better understand the financial strength of the group. It shows our weekly net cash position over the past 5 years. Basically, this slide illustrates 3 main trends. First of all, the seasonality on an annual basis. There is a seasonal cash peak at the year-end of each year as projects are completed, claims are settled, clients spend their budgets and the activity level of our construction companies is relatively low. Mid-year, our cash position is substantially lower. Secondly, the volatility of our cash position during the year is significant. And the third point and most important is the strong upward trend of our average net cash position over the last 5 years. As such, BAM deleveraged substantially, and we are a resilient company. Now let's have a look at our strategy, building the present, creating the future. For 2020, our top priority is to improve the profitability of the underperforming activities. We remain committed to our strategic objectives, and we focus on improving tender quality and derisking the company and continue to review our product market combinations. The performance culture within all parts of BAM is maturing, which is a key success factor for 2020 and beyond. As part of our strategy, we introduced a stage-gate process for tendering. This year, we have extended the stage-gate process to the execution of projects as well, which completes and totally covers our core processes. This uniform project approach will be applied consistently by all our operating companies, allowing the sharing of knowledge and lessons learned, risk management and quick adoption to changing circumstances. Combining this with our external review of product market combinations will improve the predictability of the performance. On this slide, we show the overview of our performance versus our strategic targets. On people, ensuring a safe environment is vital. After no fatalities in 2018 and in the first 3 quarters of 2019, BAM deeply regrets 2 fatalities in the last quarter of 2019 in Belgium. BAM continues its efforts to increase safety, not only in the company but also in the industry as a whole, especially by giving it consistent management attention and emphasizing the behavioral aspects. On planet, we continue to develop more sustainable solutions for our clients. The inclusion in the CDP's climate change A list that Rob mentioned earlier is a strong recognition of our efforts to reduce emissions and to achieve a net positive impact on environment and people in the long term. On profit, we already covered in the financials. On this slide, you see residential development in Amsterdam for 59 riverfront residences, which are overlooking the Amstel river. Now we come to the developments of our order backlog and the outlook. As Rob mentioned, our order book at the end of 2019 was in line with the end of 2018 while we continue to focus on quality above volume. Looking at the Netherlands, we still need a permanent solution for nitrogen and PFAS, which is causing uncertainty and delays regarding permitting and awards of some new projects. The longer-term impact of Brexit is unknown. But in that respect, it is clearly positive that the U.K. government firmly supports investments in infrastructure, such as the HS2 rail project. In Dutch Construction and Property, we see a solid demand for new homes. However, growth in the short-term is mitigated by the limited supply of land positions and slow permitting process. Although interest remains low, the affordability of homes is under pressure. In Germany, the underlying market is stable but competitive. In International, the oil and gas remains subdued. In Civil engineering, we conclude that most governments are willing to invest, but that we should continue to focus on projects with a favorable risk/reward balance. The order backlog of BAM Nuttall is strong, also due to the award of the Silvertown Tunnel project. In PPP, we see opportunities in projects in Belgium, Germany and Ireland. All in all, for 2020, we expect an improvement of the adjusted result before tax margin compared to 2019. We are cautious with our outlook, given the fact that it's early in the year and the uncertainties I just mentioned. Also, the volatility caused by the outcome and timing of claims recognitions can have an effect.
R. Wingerden
executiveThank you, Frans. And now we will take your questions.
Tijs Hollestelle
analystTijs Hollestelle, ING. Let me see. Can you give us an update on the 5 largest infrastructure projects? And I'm not meaning, let's say, the sea lock, but the infrastructure project that will have a potentially big impact on the 2020 and 2021 results. And also, the same for the European nonresidential business. So International, I'm not that interested in. But for infra and nonresidential, the biggest, most important project for the current 2 years?
R. Wingerden
executiveWell, as you know, we do not really disclose specific projects. All in all, we can say that the bigger projects that play the part in the first half of 2019, we are in discussion with our clients to discuss claims. In the meantime, we have to recognize the cost. And there is some result reported in this presentation on the project in Germany. But the outcome of these negotiations and also the timing is difficult to say. So to go into projects 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 is not what we normally do, also for the interest of the commercial process.
Tijs Hollestelle
analystOkay. And is it unfair to say that, I mean, obviously, your top priority is to improve profitability. But there's not much you can do because the orders you won last year or 2 years ago, things that start building a couple of months ago are already there. So the only thing you can do is try to reel in even better contracts, which then improve the results 2, 3 years from now. There's -- I mean, if things are not right, right now, you cannot really change that.
R. Wingerden
executiveYes. There are the older and bigger projects, you're right. So that's a matter of putting the right management on it, the right reporting systems on it, the right governance on it, the hands-on mentality, the performance culture type of things. So really be on those projects. But there are also smaller projects we take in and probably start generating the first results already this year. So it's a mix of the size of the projects and the influence you can have. So for a part, you're right, but then it's about putting the right management and scrutiny on it and action on it, performance culture. And for the smaller projects, you have already the opportunity to gain from a good process and result this time. But there is some delay in effect, that's right.
Tijs Hollestelle
analystYes. Maybe then I was not really referring to the big projects which already have been provisioned for. But what are the big projects you currently think are just okay but will start somewhere in the near future and have a big impact on the results potentially?
R. Wingerden
executiveWell, there are some order -- some big projects coming in. The Silvertown thing is a big project, But yes, if you -- I don't know them by heart, but if you read the press releases, we announce them all the time. There are some bigger ones and smaller ones. So if you run through them, then you have a pretty good picture with the projects that came in. And I can only say...
Tijs Hollestelle
analystYes. But so -- but for you guys, you understand much better the difference in complexity and potential risk in these projects because, yes, I see those press release, it's is a huge list, EUR 7 billion of orders every year, overall.
R. Wingerden
executiveYes. But we don't publish them all.
Tijs Hollestelle
analystLuckily not. But it's kind of an advertising it, always regionize. But for us, it's not -- yes, I'm not saying that much of a -- how dangerous it potentially can be.
L.F. Houter
executiveAll these projects pass our tender stage-gate process. So that's the gatekeeper to make sure the risk/reward balance on these projects is right, and we're not looking for size. So the 5 largest projects, yes, that doesn't mean a lot. We just focus on the risk/reward balance that is intrinsic in the tender.
R. Wingerden
executiveAnd together with the uniform project approach that covers also your first question, the projects that are already in hand. We go -- we have now totally covered the whole sort of uniform project approach, including risk management, the ability to adapt to new circumstances, for instance, PFAS is now in there. We immediately put in the gate, make sure that the responsibility for PFAS will not be ours because we cannot handle that. Those kind of things. I'm sure. I realize I'm not fully answering your question, but then I think we have to take it a little bit offline and then see which particular project you want to know a bit more about when we go through the list we published and see if we can help you in that way.
Maarten Verbeek
analystMaarten Verbeek, The Idea. The project losses, so you mentioned in this press release are the same as what you mentioned in the first half. However, at the same time, you also mentioned that on one hand, you had a first partial settlement of the civil project in Germany. And on the other hand, you also mentioned that in the second half, there were additional cost on projects in execution in Germany. Could you give more color to these 2 statements?
R. Wingerden
executiveYes. So that's correct, there. So we had a small upside on one of the German projects that was involved in the profit running. And on the other side, we see on a number of other projects, smaller cost increases and extension of time that resulted in deterioration of the project results.
Maarten Verbeek
analystCould you quantify them, maybe?
R. Wingerden
executiveSorry? Can you quantify? Well, if you look in H2, German Construction and Property, we had a EUR 15 million, 1-5 million euro additional loss over the second half year. And that's a combination of deterioration of projects but also some additional overhead costs that we experienced there. So it's a mix.
Maarten Verbeek
analystYou mentioned, going forward, we are pleased with the trade working capital of around about minus 10%. However, when I look at the 2 divisions, they differ quite materially. On one hand, there is certainly a good, somewhat better, result for Construction and Property. But lately, we have seen a very depressed trade working capital efficiency ratio for Civil engineering. If you simply would bring your civil back to the 10% that we used to have in the past as well, then your ratio would be clearly ahead of the 10%. So why are you still satisfied with the 10%? And are you not a little bit more ambition?
R. Wingerden
executiveI'm not sure if we had ever 10% on civil because that's traditionally a lower minus. So that's for one. And Construction and Property is traditionally above 10%.
L.F. Houter
executiveYes.
R. Wingerden
executiveSo these are the normal numbers. Since we started this trade working capital in 2016, when we are at minus 6%. We now grew it to where we are now. So I'm not very familiar that we had minus 10% on civil.
L.F. Houter
executiveSo yes, I agree with that. And I think also, it's important to note that in many civil jurisdictions where we work, it's very difficult because you deal with pay-when-paid clauses. So governments would like to see contractors have paid the supply chain before they can invoice the client. And that means somewhat lower number in trade working capital efficiency. But it's often hand-in-hand with a somewhat increased margin. So you also need to look in a balanced margin trade working capital efficiency.
Maarten Verbeek
analystWith the outlook statement, you only have stated you expect to improve your profitability because also you still might expect certain claims. Are that claims or additional costs which are still linked to projects for which you already have taken provisions, extra cost? Or do you also see some new projects which might be a bit tricky going forward?
R. Wingerden
executiveNo. I think we just mentioned it as a phenomenon, maybe -- it's not tied to a particular project because if we would see issues, then we would have taken the provision. So it's a general, let's say, effect of IFRS 15, which we have to take into account. But at this moment, we don't see any additional claims coming in.
Luuk Van Beek
analystLuuk Van Beek, Degroof Petercam. One question on Brexit, where you sound a bit more cautious than some other companies that I talk to. And most are then very positive on the infrastructure side, where you see additional government spending. You've always said government is important for us also on the nonresidential side with hospitals and schools and so on. Do you also see some stimulus measures there? Is that a part is lagging? And the second element that some other companies mentioned is that the new government brings more clarity so that the things that were on hold are now released. Is that something that you recognize?
R. Wingerden
executiveYes. I think on the infrastructure, there are promising messages. But let's see how Boris really behaves. He's a bit, let's say, unpredictable. But those are my words. So let's wait and see. But the messages are promising, especially on the infra side. On the Construction and Property side, we are a bit more cautious, especially in the London area. There are messages in the newspapers that people -- that companies are leaving the U.K. and coming to Netherlands, which is maybe then may not be bad news after all. But -- so there is a bit of a difference between infrastructure and Construction and Property, and it's all not bad news. It creates some uncertainty. We are not pessimistic.
Luuk Van Beek
analystOkay. And then on Germany, which was relatively difficult this year, also with some additional losses in H2. Can you discuss how things are developing there? Also in Berlin, the markets, I think, are becoming more difficult. What's the outlook for Germany?
L.F. Houter
executiveSo I think in Germany, the focus is on, as we said, getting the performance in that area also up to standards. So we have new management in place. And they're with full energy doing deep dives in running projects, and also, we are determining with even more focus in the key areas where we are, what are the right tenders for BAM to tender them.
Luuk Van Beek
analystOkay. And finally, on your capital ratio, where you obviously have a target of 25%, which is under pressure partly because of accounting changes. Are you still comfortable with the aim to improve that by profit retention? Or do you think that the 25% target is maybe taking into account the accounting elements a bit overly ambitious? Can you comment on that?
L.F. Houter
executiveSo our current level, 16.5%, we're comfortable with. In terms of operating the business and dealing with clients and supply chain, the targets corrected for IFRS 15 and 16 is to be around 21%. And indeed, with the performance of the company, we plan to grow the solvency further in the right direction.
Unknown Analyst
analystYes, the group overheads for 2019 was positive, contributing to the adjusted profit before tax. Can you give some more clarity on what exactly was this EUR 5.6 million? And how we're looking for next year?
L.F. Houter
executiveYes. So basically 2 elements in there. We had a small over-recovery on our running costs that we normally charge out that we always charge out, and there were 2 smaller provisions in the balance sheet for costs that turned out to be lower that we c release to the P&L. So that basically are one-offs. So normally, it should be around 0 with a bit of an uptick this year.
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. Yes. And then maybe on BAM International, we are still struggling right now. So as of this moment, you're not seeing an uptick in oil and gas, for instance. Can you elaborate on the plans for next year? What are you planning to do there?
L.F. Houter
executiveYes. So we have also there a new management in place, which is really focusing on, again, getting the performance of the company in the right place. It's about also resizing the company. So recognizing that the markets there are not so favorable. We have to assume a smaller company for the coming years. We focus in tendering very much on near-shore projects, and as such, resize the company and make it more healthy is the way forward.
Martijn den Drijver
analystMartijn den Drijver, ABN AMRO. I just want to come back to the question about the capital ratio, but then from a more obsession point of view. Just normal solvency, so equity divided by assets, excluding IFRS 16, went down by 110 basis points. You just mentioned that you're comfortable in terms of your commercial position and your suppliers. But if you take that this question in relation to the convertible, which matures in June 2001 -- '21, excuse me. Just want to hear your thoughts on how you're going to, between brackets, solve that one? That would be my first question. You want to do them one by one or...
L.F. Houter
executiveWell, you can give them all, and then we can pick and choose.
Martijn den Drijver
analystYes. Then I'm a little bit puzzled by your comments, Frans, you said, if I recall correctly, EUR 15 million, 1-5, additional losses in the second half in Germany?
L.F. Houter
executiveYes, correct.
Martijn den Drijver
analystI can't reconcile that with what's in the press release. You had EUR 57.5 million. It was EUR 54.5 million in the first half. That's an additional EUR 3.5 million. So where does the EUR 15 million come from? That's one. And the settlement, the civil project Germany. Is there any indication that you can provide of how much that is? That would be very helpful. And then the fourth one on the Middle East. If you could give a breakdown between the underrecovery part and the legal dispute, so that we can have a bit more sense on how that business is developing.
L.F. Houter
executiveOkay. Well, I think just to answer them in order of appearance. First on the solvency, yes, the convertible is, of course, on the radar. It will expire May 2021. So as we said, in the coming year, we will come with more disclosure on how we bring that forward. For now, the focus is on having all the opportunities on the table, and it's important to note, of course, that stakeholders' interests are very clearly considered. So for now, there's not much news to report there.
Martijn den Drijver
analystJust a follow-up. Are you allowed to refinance using the RCF?
L.F. Houter
executiveIn CRE, I have to check. And with that, you can...
Martijn den Drijver
analystWe'll wait.
L.F. Houter
executiveYes. Okay. Then maybe your second question, I have to check, in my mind, the numbers are 43 -- minus EUR 43 million and minus EUR 57 million, so it's minus -- around minus EUR 15 million deterioration in H2. And that's a mix of those 3 elements, but I'll come back on that.
Unknown Executive
executiveWhen you go to the slide, you can hardly object. When you see around EUR 45 million loss in Germany, you can be [indiscernible].
L.F. Houter
executiveSo it's confirmed then. You asked about the settlement in Germany. While those as Rob always usually said, were bumpy, unpredictable. So yes, we've seen small favorable settlements there in the second half of 2019. Yes, doing any predictions going forward on that would be too early. So that is always in discussion with the client and timing can vary. The legal disclosure in the Middle East, we don't provide a breakdown on it. It's just an old court case that we lost, where we have provisioned for. But the amount that came out was bigger than we anticipated.
Martijn den Drijver
analystOkay. Just a follow-up on that, should we just say roughly 1/4 -- 25% on legal dispute and the rest for the underrecovery?
L.F. Houter
executiveSorry. Small?
Martijn den Drijver
analyst25% related to the legal dispute and 75% to the underrecovery? Just...
L.F. Houter
executiveIt's a single-digit number.
Christophe Beghin
analystChristophe Beghin, Kempen. Can you give a bit of flavor of what we can expect from cash-out next year for the loss provisions that were taken in this year?
L.F. Houter
executiveSo the cash-out for the loss provision, that depends very much -- it's a bit related to the previous question on settlement discussions with clients and timing and also, of course, new claims from ongoing business. So we take an overall view on the portfolio on that. So there's no specific cash-out we forecast on current loss provisions. It's a portfolio effect, that's what I'm saying.
Christophe Beghin
analystCan you give a clear split up in the net cash position of today? What is prepayment? What is real net cash of BAM?
L.F. Houter
executiveSo the net cash position of EUR 271 million, you mean? How that's split down? So I think, first, it is good to correct -- sorry? Yes. So it's first good to correct for the leases here, taking IFRS 16 out, you come to an amount of EUR 583 million, as we say in our cash position overview. Then correcting for interest-bearing debt, you come to an EUR 854 million position overall. And that is basically driven by net results and trade working capital. Those are the big drivers behind the cash improvement over the year.
Andre Mulder
analystCan you mention the level of prepayments? At the end of '18, those were EUR 172 million, what's the amount at the end of '19? Secondly, looking at your PFI portfolio, should I assume that the start of the table, the 11% is what you currently have in mind and that the other ones are just sensitivities?
L.F. Houter
executiveWhat table you are on now, Andre?
R. Wingerden
executiveThe discount rate. 11%.
L.F. Houter
executiveOh, the discount rate for the PPP you mean. Yes. So maybe to answer the second one, yes, we give the table with a purpose. So we leave it up to the analyst to take a view on discount rate.
Andre Mulder
analystBut what was the discount rate that you used in '18 because [indiscernible]
L.F. Houter
executiveNo, I saw the -- yes -- I understand the question. So the model we used to calculate the directors' evaluation there, it was the old way to do it. We basically don't use that model anymore. We thought it was outdated, and the new methodology we choose is to give more transparency to analysts and stakeholders and to say, here are the cash flows. So you have a very clean view on the portfolio of PPP stakes. And then we leave it to the market to decide what discount rate they use. On your other question, I need to come back on that. I don't know if that number. I think it's important to mention that on the trade working capital, which it has an effect on the AP, AR balance was very favorably developed. So both lower accounts receivable, partly offset by lower accounts payable, leading to a significant improvement there.
Andre Mulder
analystSo no real exceptionals included in those numbers?
L.F. Houter
executiveNo, if you compare year-on-year, of course, of course, OpenIJ is a big one, where we started the financing earlier this year. So that's one to take into account.
Andre Mulder
analystA question on covenants. Where are you on the covenants?
L.F. Houter
executiveComfortable because we have not used our RCF, so we...
Andre Mulder
analystCan you mention the levels? Normally, you would be able to...
L.F. Houter
executiveYes. It is in the press release. On solvency, we do too -- that's another definition that we use for the RCF. Wait, I have it here.
R. Wingerden
executiveIt's in the press release.
L.F. Houter
executiveSo it's 28% on solvency. And that is a different definition because we use frozen IFRS, and we exclude pensions and derivatives. So also there, we're in a comfortable position.
Andre Mulder
analystSo you're currently at 28%?
L.F. Houter
executive28%.
Andre Mulder
analystAnd the threshold is 15%?
L.F. Houter
executive15%. Yes.
Andre Mulder
analystAnd on the other ones?
L.F. Houter
executiveIt's in the press release. Here we have it, thanks [indiscernible]. Yes. So we do -- recourse leverage is -- should be below 2.5, it's minus 6.3. So also there, we're in a good shape. And the recourse interest coverage ratio should be above 4 and we are at 9.6.
R. Wingerden
executivePage 11.
L.F. Houter
executiveIt's on page 11 of the press release.
Unknown Analyst
analystYes. And a follow-up question on the solvency. Maybe we are seeing ghosts because, indeed, you're very far away from a covenant breach. So on the other capital ratio, it's -- I mean, I have seen Ballast Nedam with a solvency ratio of 2%, and then the company was still around. So maybe we are just overly worried about it.
L.F. Houter
executiveYes. And then the question is?
Unknown Analyst
analystNo. Yes, the question is, we have discussed it many times. And my feeling is after covering for 20 years construction companies that the market is looking at what Martijn is saying, just let equity to total assets and all kinds of -- they are very difficult to calculate definitions. To my understanding, that has an impact whether joint venture partners like to work with BAM, clients like to work with BAM, banks like to finance BAM. So but yes, it seems to me that it's not really an issue.
L.F. Houter
executiveNo. I agree. And as we stated, 16.5%, even 1.1% higher if you exclude IFRS 16. If you exclude IFRS 15, you would be around 20%. So for operational business, we are in good shape. But we just say, we have to start a solvency out there. We, find it's an important number. And that's why we report on it, and we try to grow it by driving a good business.
Unknown Analyst
analystI will never ask a question about it.
Martijn den Drijver
analystIs this one working? A follow-up from ABN AMRO, Martijn den Drijver. Just coming back to your guidance, you said conditions in most markets are generally positive. You've been more selective for some time, stage gate, the new API processes, which would then mean that we wouldn't have in 2020 EUR 72 million in provisions, losses in Construction and Property. Not EUR 22 million in civil and not some undercovered in International. Why are you then guiding -- changing your guidance from 2% to 4% to above? Why not 1% to 3%? Why not more than 2%? Can you elaborate on your thought process here?
L.F. Houter
executiveYes. So I can only come back on what we said earlier, because those are the drivers for giving this guidance. And that is -- it's early in the year, and we see some uncertainties, there's PAS, there's PFAS, Brexit, external factors, so we're cautious to provide guidance.
Martijn den Drijver
analystAn honest answer, I guess. And then just you mentioned also in the press release in Civil engineering for the Netherlands specifically, results of several larger and mid-sized projects are deteriorated. Can you elaborate on why it is deteriorating apart from the obvious?
L.F. Houter
executiveSo the why -- it's as we stated, a number of projects. And if you look into the drivers, it's predominantly about cost overruns and extension of times that bring us into additional costs.
Martijn den Drijver
analystCost overruns and delays.
L.F. Houter
executiveYes. Correct.
Martijn den Drijver
analystAnd how is that possible given what you've told us again about the stage-gate process and all the other processes that you have in place?
L.F. Houter
executiveSo we're in the One BAM journey, continue to focus to increase the quality of the portfolio. As such, we have the tender stage-gate process. And as we explained, we extend that now using the uniform project approach through the next phase, and that's during the operational life cycle of projects and with that increase the performance and the productivity of projects. But this clearly is, yes, a number that is indicated in Q4, we did not succeed in that. That's the highest priority to fix that.
Martijn den Drijver
analystJust an add-on, if I may, and I'll pass on to another analyst. But you've done, obviously, a project review at the end of the year, probably has even more detail than you did at the half year figures. What was your materiality level? Has that come down? Or has it been the same? So I recall that at half year, in August, you said EUR 100 million and EUR 150 million for the project for a review?
L.F. Houter
executiveFor a?
Martijn den Drijver
analystFor a project to be reviewed in detail, it had to have between EUR 100 million and EUR 150 million in revenue, if my memory serves me right.
L.F. Houter
executiveNo, I think you say a couple of things I'd like to respond on. So first of all, we watch these projects not once a year, every month, there's a month reporting every quarter, and we do that with the same level of scrutiny. So it's the quarterly numbers are just as carefully analyzed as year numbers. I think the EUR 100 million to EUR 150 million was about project size. The question then was, also from yourself, "What is the definition of a large project?" Every project gets the same attention and focus in determining what is the right forecast and what is the right actual number, small and large projects. So that's not related to size.
Martijn den Drijver
analystOkay. You also just mentioned just now that one of the reasons for your cautiousness was the general effect of IFRS 15. That kind of concerns me because I think that within your project organization nowadays, given the timing since the implementation of IFRS 15, they should be fully aware of the implication and the cadence?
L.F. Houter
executiveYes. So I think, as Rob said, and I like to quote him on that. It's a general statement that we -- there's volatility in revenue recognition driven by accounting rules. So it's not specific to the implementation or compliance with IFRS 15. It's just a generic effect we see in projects and as every company has that there is some volatility.
R. Wingerden
executiveWe could enter into a discussion with a client where you have to take some costs before you get a recognition. Do we know those projects now? No, otherwise we would have taken the cost. But it creates as a -- when we said that -- when this entity was introduced, it could create some volatility. And as we -- as you look at past year, there are some claims coming in. So we get into a sort of new balance.
Unknown Analyst
analystOn which segment are you the least positive for 2020? Is it on Dutch Infra because PFAS, PAS? Is it on Germany because of the uncertainty on the ongoing claims? Can you elaborate there your personal feeling?
L.F. Houter
executiveWe give an outlook for the whole company. And we give market insights, how we see the market. So I'd like to stick to that.
Unknown Analyst
analystAnd do you experience as well margin pressure at the infra division in the Netherlands a result of underutilization of equipment or staff?
L.F. Houter
executiveIn the Netherlands, you said?
Unknown Analyst
analystYes, yes.
L.F. Houter
executiveYes. Well, as, of course, a second order effect there, which, as Rob explained, the pressure on new tenders in that market. That, of course, has a second order effect on pricing.
R. Wingerden
executiveWe started the projects coming to the market. So we anticipate, of course, on that, how that -- to the best of our knowledge today, how things come to the market, we act upon that in our organization.
Andre Mulder
analystAndre Mulder, Kepler. Two questions on the margins. The midterm target of 2% to 4% still stands? Second question. You used to say that the margin in the backlog was approaching 3%. Is that still the case?
L.F. Houter
executiveSo on the -- you basically asked us is the strategic agenda still in place. No, the ambition for the full strategic agenda is still -- is very much confirmed in all our ambitions and the One BAM journey that we started we are continuing to embark on. So even with more energy and focus for the coming periods. On the 3%, that's a number we earlier provided for -- where do you get the 3%? Where is that said?
Andre Mulder
analystYou said 2% to 3%.
R. Wingerden
executiveThe intention is to get all our new order intake as a portfolio in that range.
Unknown Executive
executiveOne last question.
Maarten Verbeek
analystMaarten Verbeek, The Idea. One of your targets is the property portfolio, which -- to bring down below EUR 500 million. The progress you have made has come, from a large part, from write-downs, which is, obviously, would it be -- rather would have seen that differently. But now about the EUR 530 million, with also the strong demand for housing in the Netherlands, when we will see really use of that property portfolio, that, that will really come down and you will cash in on what's still locked in?
R. Wingerden
executiveSo -- yes, go ahead.
L.F. Houter
executiveSo yes, maybe let me comment on the number, Maarten, that you mentioned because the portfolio has come down with EUR 35 million. So EUR 8 million roughly is related to impairments. So I would not agree that it's the majority.
Maarten Verbeek
analystI was talking about more the longer-term progress you have made.
L.F. Houter
executiveYes. Okay. And then if we look at your question is how do we see the utilization of that portfolio. So the turnover of projects in there? Or what's the...
Maarten Verbeek
analystLook, again, for a very long period, this is clearly above the EUR 500 million. And you should more or less, it is likely to assume that you would use those property positions you have to start to construct building them?
L.F. Houter
executiveYes. Absolutely.
Maarten Verbeek
analystAnd turn them into cash.
L.F. Houter
executiveBut yes. Okay. So there's a lot of movements in that portfolio. So we look at the absolute number, and that's why we also said in the previous quarters, we target to be below EUR 500 million. But of course, you need to look at opportunities. So if there's good opportunities in the market, we -- it's not the holy grail to be below there.
R. Wingerden
executiveAnd there are 3 buckets here. You have the green lands, you have the impaired lands and you have the, you could say, good running projects. And these 3 parts are to be managed. So there is a lot of, let's say, rollover in the good parts that we make the big earnings. There is this section of impaired lands, where you basically get to a sort of no -- 0 result, where you talk about cash conversion. And we try to sell some lands. And it's roughly in 3 parts. And that result sometimes in a write-down. But also, if you see -- look at the results of property, it's, again, a very good year. So you have to see that as a whole.
Maarten Verbeek
analystCould you more or less break those 3 parts down, roughly percentages?
R. Wingerden
executiveI don't know if we ever disclosed that...
L.F. Houter
executiveNo. We don't.
R. Wingerden
executiveBut I'm not sure whether it's a really a secret. But so we have to look at it. But it -- and of course, the less favorable stuff gets smaller and smaller. And I agree, sometimes it's more a little bit of a write-down to get cash in or only the cash -- so there's this part and good -- the results are, again, very good.
L.F. Houter
executiveBut the general -- I think the general statement could be that the portfolio has shrink. But the quality and the turnover are going up, and that's also 2 important criteria.
Maarten Verbeek
analystAnd yet for -- you have said the stocks are below EUR 500 million for 2020. Also, in the much longer future, do you think you want to have such a large position? Or do you think, at the end of the day, maybe EUR 250 million should be sufficient?
R. Wingerden
executiveIt's a matter of how much do you gain with it. If the engine is running well and producing a lot of good results and you put some more fuel in it, so it's a balance of what's your return on it. At the time, because looking back is still my answer, we said below EUR 500 million is a nice level to have on your balance sheet going forward. That's for my successors.
Maarten Verbeek
analystYes. With regards to that element, if we look at timing, I assume that BAM is already, unfortunately, looking for a replacement. That may take 2, 3 months then a new CEO -- or maybe even longer, who knows, then the new CEO, will want to get to know, I'm assuming an external candidate here, will get to know the company, which will take another 3, 4, 5 months, who knows. Is it fair to assume that we will get a strategy update before year-end? Is that still the way you're thinking about it?
L.F. Houter
executiveWhat we announced is that the Capital Markets Day, which will be the moment to share that strategy, will be done, of course, by the new CEO. So when we know that he is in, we will confirm a date for that.
Unknown Analyst
analystCould be 2021 then, I guess.
L.F. Houter
executiveLet's not speculate on that. I know the Supervisory Board is doing a very careful process to find a good new CEO for BAM. And we'll keep you posted on that.
R. Wingerden
executiveWell, ladies and gentlemen, I think that brings us to the end of this meeting. It has been my great privilege to lead Royal BAM group over the past 5.5 years. I would like to thank Frans and all my colleagues, past and present, for their support and great dedication to BAM. I'd particularly like to appreciate our clients, suppliers, shareholders and other stakeholders. I truly believe that BAM has a great future, and I wish you all the best. Thank you.
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