Koninklijke BAM Groep nv (BAMNB) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone. I'm Michel Aupers, Investor Relations Manager at Royal BAM Group. Welcome to everyone joining this analyst meeting here in Amsterdam or in the audio webcast. The meeting is hosted by our CEO, Ruud Joosten; and our CFO, Frans den Houter. They will give a short presentation on key points of BAM's resales for the full year 2023. Also, they will provide the highlights of our strategy for the 3-year period 2024, 2026. Afterwards, we will take your questions. I'll draw your attention to the disclaimer here. Ruud, over to you, please.

Thank you, Michel, and good morning all. This picture shows you a side of BAM, that's sometimes less visible, mechanical and electrical engineering activities of BAM industry for Koppert in Berkel en Rodenrijs, world market leader in biological crop control. Let's start with the key points over the last year. We had a good year in 2023. We further improved our operational performance, strengthened our financial position. This is despite a challenging industry background due to higher interest rates, political and geopolitical uncertainties and supply chain pressures. Our order book is at a good level, and we remain focused on the quality of the order intake. I'm very pleased to share with you today that we delivered on all the financial and sustainability targets we set 3 years ago. We are making solid progress with the revised sustainability strategy we announced last year with its more challenging targets. Later on, I will review our delivery of the strategic agenda '21, '23 and provide more context on our strategy and targets for the next 3 years. I'm also pleased that we are proposing to our shareholders a 33% increase of our dividend to EUR 0.20 per share. Today, in addition to the proposed dividend, we're also announcing the return -- to return EUR 30 million to the shareholders via share buyback. This is a clear reflection of our confidence in the company. Now let's look at the performance of the 2 divisions. On this slide, you see 67 very energy-efficient apartments in the Weef project in Helmond, a project of BAM Wonen. Adjusted EBITDA in the division in the Netherlands was EUR 179 million. This is 4% ahead of the result of last year. The margin for full year '23 was 6%. The contribution of Dutch Construction and Property was solid. We had a strong last quarter, bringing total homes sold for the year to 1,670. This is better than our guidance but below the levels of recent years. That reflects shortage of permits and pressure on buyers from higher interest rates and the lower appetite of institutional investors to invest in homes for the rental market. Nonresidential construction had a stronger second half year after the first half year was impacted by supply chain issues and delays at some projects in the Netherlands and Denmark. Last year, we completed 2 of the 4 Danish projects. Our activities in Energy and Telecom Solutions had a high contribution. The civil engineering activities continued the positive trend since last year and delivered again a good result. Our Dutch order backlog improved to EUR 4.9 billion, especially our order intake in nonresidential was very good with the A Pier in Schiphol and the refurbishment of the new ABN AMRO headquarters. Moving on to the division U.K. and Ireland. On this slide, you see recently opened Herring Bridge in Great Yarmouth, Norfolk, a project of BAM Nuttall in joint venture. The overall result improved significantly to an adjusted EBITDA of EUR 122 million, reflecting a margin of 3.9%. The disappointing result at Construction U.K. was due to supply chain issues and cost overruns at a large project. To be more specific, we were confronted by the bankruptcy of some key suppliers, which resulted in extra costs and delays. Civil engineering U.K. had a strong year, supported by the high activity level and the settlement of a legacy project. BAM ventures also showed strong performance, which included the divestment of an office development in the first half year. The result in Ireland improved driven by Civil engineering. The National Children's Hospital project is now 90% completed, and we are on track with the revised timetable for delivery to the clients. Now Frans will take you through the financials.

Thank you, Ruud, and good morning, everyone. This slide shows sea lock Terneuzen, and the lock ensures the future-proof access to the ports of Ghent and Terneuzen. As Ruud already stated, 2023 was a good year for BAM, also from a financial perspective. Our group delivered an adjusted EBITDA margin of 4.9%, and there was a clean conversion to the net result of EUR 175 million. The improved financial performance also resulted in a stronger balance sheet that was strengthened, and this allows us to increase our return to our shareholders via a higher dividend proposal and the announcement of an additional share buyback. Let's zoom in some details of our income statement. Revenues of the division NL, U.K. and Ireland increased by 2%. Total group revenues declined by 5%, reflecting the effect of the divestments in 2022. The total adjusted EBITDA was EUR 304 million, equaling a margin of 4.9%. In 2022, adjusted EBITDA was EUR 350 million, including positive contributions of the divested companies and hedge revaluations. Excluding the positive result of Wayss & Freytag, the adjusted EBITDA margin was 4.5% in 2022. There was a satisfactory contribution from the Belgium businesses reported in the line, Germany, Belgium and international. BAM's share of Invesis net results for the full year was EUR 3 million, which stems from the operational portfolio. There was no exceptional items and the result is more or less in line with the normal operational performance of Invesis. In the last quarter, Invesis reached financial close on the GLM2 social housing project in Australia. At the end of 2023, Invesis had 44 operational projects and 4 projects under construction while the bidding pipeline remains strong. Depreciation and amortization was slightly higher than last year as a result of our increased investment in sustainable and modular solutions. The increased financial income reflects higher interest rates. The income tax expense is reduced to EUR 9 million, which is an effective tax rate of 5%. This exceptionally low tax rate is explained by positive effects of recognizing liquidation losses at BAM International and the revaluation of deferred tax assets. Please do not use the tax rate of 2022, 2023 for your future models as we anticipate a tax rate in the range of 18% to 20%. Arriving at the bottom line, we report a net result of EUR 175 million, which equals earnings per share of EUR 0.65. For 2022, excluding the one-off transaction in Wayss & Freytag, our EPS was EUR 0.47. Moving on to the cash flow statement. Our cash from operations improved further to EUR 276 million, driven by strong business performance. The net cash outflow of the working capital of EUR 99 million over the year is driven by further normalization of the trade working capital. This is a reflection of strategic portfolio decisions to stop tendering for large single-stage lump-sum contracts. As such, the amount of large advanced payments is steadily decreasing. Also the payment behavior of our clients is influenced by the higher interest rates. Current and noncurrent provisions combined declined by EUR 43 million. Pensions resulted in a cash out of EUR 36 million, and that includes additional payments to cover the impact of indexation and changes in actuarial assumptions. Cash flow from investing activities in 2023 included an increase in capital expenditure to support our strategy, such as electrification of equipment in both divisions and investment in modular timber construction in the Netherlands, also known as the Flow Housing Concept. The line cash flow from financing activities included the payment of cash dividend and the buyback of shares issued for scrip and coverage of share-based employee compensation plans, totaling EUR 42 million. The remainder relates to leases and repayments of interest-bearing debt. Our cash position remained solid at EUR 0.8 billion. On our financial position, as mentioned, our trade working capital continues to normalize. Trade working efficiency landed at minus 13.2% and is well above our strategic target of minus 10%. We anticipate trade working capital to further increase in 2024, after which we expect trade working capital to balance out. Let me reflect on the balance sheet and what we have realized in the last 3 years. We made more substantial progress with the derisking of the company's operational and financial profile, divested businesses and tightened the risk criteria for new projects that we are willing to accept. In result, we have rebuilt the capital ratio from a low point of 11.3% in 2020 to over 23% today. We redeemed the convertible bond, repaid the governmental COVID support and the RCF that we had drawn in 2020. The EUR 330 million RCF we put in place in November 2022 is linked to our sustainability strategy. The company is very pleased that we resumed paying dividend of EUR 0.15 last year. Today, we propose a 33% increase and propose a dividend of EUR 0.20 per share over the year 2023. In addition, we also announced a 30 million share buyback. Regarding sustainability, BAM has decided to take a progressive step in further maturing sustainability reporting to external stakeholders in consideration of the upcoming CSRD, meaning amending the structure of the annual report towards CSD requirements and voluntarily limited assurance in 2003, which is a year earlier than required. To conclude, also from a financial and reporting perspective, we are in a far better place than 3 years ago, and I want to thank our teams who truly went the extra mile to execute this challenging transformation. Back to you, Ruud.

Thanks, Frans. Let's look at the market trends, our outlook and strategic priorities and targets for the next 3 years. We continue our strong focus on order book quality and selective tendering. Order book is at this -- is at a solid level of EUR 9.8 billion. Although interest rates and inflation are expected to fall over the medium term, in the short term, they are still creating pressures on our supply chain. In the Netherlands, the lack of new government, new government means uncertainty on some key political issues like the debt-residential market, while the uncertainty regarding nitrogen persists. In the debt-residential market, average house prices are on the rise again, although the number of building permits remained muted. Nevertheless, there is a clear shortage of affordable and sustainable homes, and BAM is well positioned to supply these homes in the coming years. In both divisions, there's a positive outlook for energy transition and infrastructure markets. In the U.K., although construction markets are currently somewhat under pressure, there are good long-term prospects in our key segments of education, health, offices and leisure. The U.K. civil engineering market is stable with a positive outlook in rail, road and energy transition. In Ireland, the construction market is expected to grow. I'm happy with the opportunity to present the outlines of our strategy and targets for the years '24, '26. With regard to our outlook, we expect to deliver an adjusted EBITDA margin between 4% and 6%. As Frans already concluded, BAM is clearly in a far better shape today compared to some years ago. We are a more resilient company with a more predictable performance. We derisked our portfolio by divesting our operations in Germany and parts of Belgium and closing BAM International. We moved away from risky tenders and targeted work with a better risk reward profile. And we reached our financial targets with revenue at EUR 6.3 billion. Improvement of the capital ratio from 11.3% in 2020 to 23.4% in '23 and improved our EBITDA margin from 2.9% in 2020 to 4.9% today. Early 2023, we launched our new sustainability strategy, explaining our ambitions and commitments up to 2030. Although in 2023, we achieved an important milestone of a 50% CO2 intensity reduction versus 2015. We have reduced our emissions and our waste intensity. We made the CDP Climate A list for the fifth time in a row. All in all, we have laid a solid foundation for the next phase of our journey. We are now transitioning into the '24, '26 phase of building a sustainable tomorrow. Across the board, we target projects that align with our financial goals and echo our commitment to a sustainable development. We recognized many opportunities for the coming years. Many of these will be driven by sustainability. There's a need for more sustainable and affordable housing in the Netherlands. Both in the U.K. and the Netherlands, existing houses, buildings and infrastructure need to be renovated. BAM supports the energy transition with projects that improve the energy grid and EV charging infrastructure. The core of our strategy revolves around these 3 strategic pillars, which enable us to take leading positions in solving societal challenges. These pillars are focus, transform and expand. Focus allows us to ensure predictable profitability by choosing financially attractive projects that align with our sustainability targets and putting our efforts into markets where we truly excel. Transform marks our commitment to continuous improvement and innovation in the way we execute our projects. More and more, we will execute repetitive projects that deliver best value for our customers. For example, we leveraged digitalization and industrialization by realizing affordable high standard, high comfort, low-energy houses in a fast production process with an unrivaled customer experience. And finally, we'll expand in high-growth markets such as energy transition, the climate adaptation of our built environment and the renovation of homes and public spaces. Let me now show you a few examples of projects in the following slides. Examples of focus are the high-rise apartment buildings, Zalmhaven, Rotterdam. A good example of a project that enables the desimplification of the city center with addressing scarcity in the housing market. A great example of a climate adaptive project is the Network Rail Sea Wall in Dawlish. This project is the result of key client relationships where we deliver a solution to protect the railway from extreme weather and rising tides for generations to come. Here we see some examples of transform. BAM is delivering the upgrade of Sunderland station, including demolition and innovative building elements through a unique combination of capabilities in BAM Construct U.K. and BAM Nuttall. Affordability is key to address the ambition for 100,000 yearly new build houses in the Netherlands, of which approximately half are low rise. BAM is leading the way with our industrialized flow concept, not only providing affordable but also highly sustainable housing through building in woods. End-user benefit from comfortable low-energy personalized home, the customer journey takes them from development with AM, customer care and configuration personalized options with home studios to the final production in our factory and on site. Expansion is about intentional and accelerated growth in target markets. In the electricity grid and infrastructure sector, BAM is well positioned to capture growth in both the Netherlands and U.K. and Ireland. For example, Wijk aan Zee in the Netherlands, we connected offshore wind frames to the power grid, providing renewable energy for an equivalent of 1 million households. We recognized an urgent need to deliver high-quality and sustainable renovations to existing buildings and infrastructure. In the ecosystem with comakers, BAM delivers a streamlined and integrated sustainable upgrade, enabling residents to return home after a swift and effective renovation, like a partnership with the [indiscernible] program in the Netherlands, allowing 111,000 Dutch households to live in an almost energy-neutral house. Also to mention renovations and retrofits in the U.K. such as the Space hotel in London, which will be the first Grade II listed refurbishment to be awarded a BREEAM Outstanding certification. Our financial targets are set with ambition and realism. We are committed to further improve the quality of our revenue in terms of profitability and sustainability, delivering on our promise to be sustainable -- the sustainable leader in our industry. With annual revenues of over EUR 6 billion in predictable projects and a capital ratio of 25%, we are ensuring stability and resilience. Our focus on an adjusted EBITDA margin of 4% to 6% further reflects our commitment to predictability and performance for the group, which is a performance in line with the best-performing European peers. Capital allocation strategy '24-'26 aims to strike a balance between reinvesting in the business for sustainability growth and rewarding investors while maintaining a resilient balance sheet. In the next phase of the strategy for '24-'26, BAM continues its current dividend policy to distribute a dividend between 30% and 50% of the net results. The group will also consider cash returns via share buybacks. Equally important are our sustainability targets announced in 2023, which has a longer life span and which are central to our identity as a sustainable construction company. As we told you when we launched these targets, they go well beyond just carbon focus and our 6 themes in line with the United Nations Sustainability Development Goals. Our ambition is to take a holistic approach and encapsulate all the elements that a construction company can drive and in doing so, support our clients in achieving their own sustainability goals. BAM's journey of becoming a sustainability leader will continue through '24-'26 and beyond. We have a clear ambition that projects with sustainability purpose will be a growing part of our order book and revenue over the coming years. All of this is driven by an organization with highly engaged people. We thank our college for all their efforts over the past 3 years and look forward to working side-by-side over the next phase of our strategy. Now we'll take your questions.

Martijn den Drijver for ABN AMRO. The guidance that you've given, the targets that you've set for 2024-2026, 4% to 6%, 5%, 6% ambitious. But you've done 4.9% in 2023, under challenging market conditions, political unrest was already there, it has been for the last 2, 3 years. So I was wondering, can you explain to us why would you use a lower end range of 4%? What are the underlying assumptions because you've done much better this year under equally challenging market conditions?

Yes. Very good question. Thanks for that. Indeed, we are very happy with the results of '23, reaching 4.9%. But what we want to be is a predictable company to all stakeholders. So that's why we came with this next 3-year set of targets through the cycle. And that's maybe the comforting difference, I think, for the capital market as well that we say, based on a strong basis we have today and our strategy, we do an outlook for the next 3 years through the cycle 4.6%. Of course, our ambition is to be on the upper hand of that -- let's say, 4% to 6%. But there's also a lot of uncertainty. And like stated in the documents, this is, let's say, at the high end of what our peers perform in Europe. So we think it's an ambitious but also realistic target through the cycle.

Is it more related then to what you mentioned through the cycle? Is it just market driven? Or particularly -- and I'm sorry to ask that, is it also related to the fact that there's more risky phase to Fehmarnbelt coming up, the sinking of the concrete portions of the tunnel? The children's hospital is going to be, if all goes well, completed and handed over to the customer. So is it really just macro, which makes you more cautious? Or is it perhaps a couple of more project related?

No, it's really not related to specific big projects. We see in general that the portfolio is getting more and more derisked because -- yes, also some of the project that you mentioned or let's say, in the end phase of -- is in the end phase of finalization also in '24. So we see several of the bigger projects flowing out of the portfolio in '24. So in general, our strategy of derisking is continuing, and the list of big risky projects is getting smaller and smaller and smaller. A few are still there, and that's also clear. But that's not the real reason. The real reason is indeed -- let's say, 5% is first quartile European wide. There is still uncertainty in both markets or our elections in the U.K. this year. There's also some geopolitical question still in the market. So we felt -- also for the markets to be predictable, this isn't a realistic, but ambitious bet for the next 3 years.

Okay. I'll move on to my second question. You mentioned post potentially cash returns in the form of share buybacks. What would be the conditions for you to apply to go for share buybacks? Is it a capital ratio over 25%? Can you perhaps share your thoughts on what those metrics should be before SBB has become part of the picture?

Yes. Good question. Thanks, Martijn. I think Ruud in a short comment earlier stated that we look at the balance between investing in the business in growing it or making it better quality. We want a resilient balance sheet, and we respect the dividend policy. So 3% to 5% of net result as dividend. And then beyond that, you can imagine if there's additional excess cash in the company, that there can be an opportunity to consider buybacks. And this is what we announced today, which is really nice timing and a balance sheet that supports it. And in the future, we will consider it. But we look at it year by year.

Tijs Hollestelle, ING. Yes, also to continue on the dividend and the share buyback, I was surprised by the quite high dividend you announced, so that's very positive. I'm not sure how to phrase the question, but let's assume that all things are equal, '24, '23 except, let's say, the tax rate goes to the 18%, 20%, would you then, let's say, increase the payout ratio to keep at least the dividend of '23 the same in '24? Is that kind of a fault you having or will you, let's say, make it more volatile and also depending on the move in the net profit because, yes, the tax rate is not something fundamentally so that you're [ basically ] providing a floor in the dividend?

No. I can imagine your question because it triggers of course, what's next. For today, we're really happy with this, and let's focus on that. I think I stick to what we said earlier, and Ruud was very clear also in Q2 and Q3, a stable or growing dividend is what we aim for. And as I said, I think we, in the new strategy, reconsidered also a capital allocation strategy and the statements that we just made, balancing, investing in the business, shareholder interest and a resilient balance sheet, that is the starting point.

You have a lot of room because you're on the low end.

Yes, you say -- we're surprised by the amount of dividend, but it's 30% of net result, and we respect our policy. So that's also a driver for this step. A positive net result this year really supports the decision to go over that amount.

Okay. That's clear. Yes. And then also, I mean, I have a lot of respect for what happened with BAM so -- and it complements for that because I was also skeptical 3 years ago. So a lot of change. But they're back to business. If I look at, let's say, the 6-month performance, the breakdown in the U.K. and Ireland division, then I see still rather big swings and that makes me a bit nervous because that reminds me of BAM, let's say, 5, 10, 15, 20 years ago. So you're mentioning that some of the suppliers went bankrupt. I mean that is also -- yes, I think that can happen. But of course, it's also BAM's responsibility to select the right suppliers. And if then the loss I'm seeing in the second half is that, let's say, will be a loss in the first half and then gradually goes to 0 and then maybe in '25, it turns positive? Or is it really a one-off? And can we expect, let's say -- I mean, it's always volatile, but can we expect, let's say, more or less normal margins again in the first half of this year already?

Maybe let me start with the second question, and then Ruud can comment a bit on the business side on the U.K. and I. Yes, we have a very strong focus on derisking if we sign contracts and we run tenders, what are our partners have. So we really are very selective in large co-creators that we work with, also very keen to manage inflation properly and hedge those risks. But we always said there is a tailwind risk and the tailwind risk is when a supplier goes bankrupt, you have to retender. Now we see specifically now in H2, 2 examples of that, and that caused additional cost that is clearly visible also in the comments that we make. But that is, in our view, within an acceptable bandwidth of if you've seen what kind of inflation we have experienced in the past 3, 4 years and driving also pressure on the supply chain and then in the ultimate cases, bankruptcies that is within the acceptable bandwidth in our view. And it's not any prediction for the first half of this year. This should be incidents. But you're exposed to that because, yes, construction is about contracting. We have huge significant third-party scopes out there. So every once in a while, we have situations like this.

Yes. And then because I also saw that the performance of the other -- the Infra business in the U.K. was really strong. You had a reverse settlement. Was that one of the projects -- one of the legacy projects?

Yes, from a past project indeed. Sometimes it takes years and years before such a settlement comes out. But it's also a part of the business. So it's all part of the results. More a bit holistically, you could say that the Infra market in the U.K. look really good. Last week, I think an announcement was made of hundreds of billions of plant investment by British government in infrastructure. A bit the same as, let's say, the lack in Holland in the maintenance of the total infrastructure of the U.K. but also the electrification needs also the same, by the way, is in the Netherlands. So that market looks really, really positive for the next maybe decade for BAM, being specialized in rail and electrification project, especially but also these climate adaptation projects in both markets. In construction and in commercial, nonresidential, you see that as more kind of GDP linked development where you see some difficulties in some parts of the both markets. And then it's about being very successful in a few big projects. And then you can still have a very, very attractive portfolio like in the Netherlands with ABR and ABN AMRO headquarters that are big projects, very nice sustainability project that came into our portfolio last year. So that's where we are and that's in the U.K., a bit the same. This was a specific project where we had some issues and you see also some difficulty in the U.K. construction market, not so much in that Infra market, doesn't in general. Some companies going broke. And in that sense, I'm really proud of where we then come out with our results in U.K. contract and Infra in '23. But yes, we have to deal with that. You can say you have to anticipate, you have to know, well, in maybe 90%, we -- 95%, we are anticipating, we are, let's say, the derisk there. But yes, these things happen. And now we are in a situation with BAM that we can absorb these problems, these issues and yes, be still in a comfortable profitability range. I think that's the difference, indeed, when you talk about things that you know from the past, and that feels a lot better, of course.

I agree because also, if I -- let's say, if I look at the U.K. and Ireland performance and link that to your 4% to 6% because it's unpredictable. If you basically swap the positive or the negative, then you would be at 4% otherwise directional to 6%, and that is probably also why you chose because this will always happen.

And you see -- a very, very fair point. You see that both in Construct U.K. and in Nuttall, so kind of headwind in Construct but a bit of uplift in Construct U.K. last year and the Nuttall you see the opposite. And that's why the guidance overall through the cycle, 4% to 6% is our confidence in the portfolio and where BAM stands in the marketplace. But yes, you always will have volatility on segment level or below.

That's clear. One final question for now. You sold indeed more homes than you indeed were guided for, I think, the third quarter trading update. More than 1,000 houses, is that, let's say, one project that comes in quick? Or is that really underlying demand in the Netherlands?

Yes. Indeed, if, let's say, a big project comes to market, and of course, it can be about 100 or even more, so that can go very fast out. So that can be part of that kind of quick changes over the year but we also see some recovery in the market in the Q4 where prices go up. And I think people in the Netherlands feel that their paycheck should be better than expected in the end. So the people realize that inflation is also coming through their paycheck. Stabilizing of interest rate was also clear, I think, for consumers. So there was also a positive, better sentiment in the market, clearly in Q4 than in the earlier quarters. So -- and then, indeed, with the mix in the portfolio of the projects we deliver, yes, we were really, really happy with the last quarter in the Netherlands residential, absolutely.

It's also the typical pattern there. So Q4 is always very strong, but that's why it's always difficult to predict as well because how many people will still go just to the notary before Christmas is always a bit difficult to predict, but really happy with this.

You guys also have feasibility for this year, I guess, in the -- for the property development business. So you're not that pessimistic because there's a lot...

To a certain extent because you see what happened in Q4. So it's very difficult to predict this in Netherlands, let's say, in a very detailed way. Market is not worse, I think, looking at the interest rates. And indeed, again, I think inflation correction in the salaries of people. On the other hand, still a lot of uncertainty as well in this market economically but also geo politics, still uncertainty for people. Longer term, still a very positive market, of course. And that's, I think, a very good news for us, and for the financial markets that we deliver with this relatively low amount of homes sold, this profitability. So you can say it's a big problem. You can also say it's a huge opportunity because if these numbers come through, they will come through one day or the other. Yes, there's a lot of opportunity, of course, for our bottom line.

Tim Ehlers from Kepler Cheuvreux. My first question is about the margin in Construction & Property in the division, Netherlands. So you basically doubled the margin from the 3.5% in H1 to roughly 7% in H2. What was the driver behind it? Was it as you said, some recovery in residential? Or do you overall see an improvement in -- also in the nonresidential margins and stuff?

Not a specific single driver. So you really see timing effects of projects, yes, making that H2 much stronger than H1. So not a specific driver for this.

But would you say that's sustainable number going forward? Or is it that you maybe now have some sort of seasonality? I mean, okay, H1 was impacted by that loss in Denmark but...

No. I think overall, the profile this year was -- I think you better evaluate 2023 over the full year. And then based on the guidance that we gave and the overall view on the segments look towards 2024 to shape your opinion.

Okay. Clean things. And then one follow-up question regarding the tender processes, especially in the Netherlands. I think a couple of weeks ago, there was a big article in the [ FTA ] about, I think, a bridge where nobody tendered for it, and there were big issues of finding companies that were willing to take the risk. Do you see an overall trend, especially in Netherlands, that's -- the authorities or also other parties, let's say, are willing to balance the risk a bit more? And where you also then see opportunity going forward and more stable and more predictable?

I think this is a real bad example. We don't see that trend. Well, this is an example. It's not the trend but this is a bad example because indeed, here again, you see the government coming out with a tender with a big lump sum, very risky project. And then I really think what are they thinking? Because we are saying now for 3 years, 3.5 years, we will not tender these anymore. So in that sense, it's 3 steps back, maybe 1 step forward with this government. So for me, it's not a surprise at all. The people are not interested in a project like this. But there are always people who still are tendering. So that's also what's happening but the government really needs to change their attitude there because a company like BAM can never take that risk. And it's a very important element of infrastructure for the harbor of Rotterdam, for the city of Rotterdam. So now to delay that with years and years and years that maintenance is really, really bad for the Netherlands. So people have to think about this.

But you still see other companies tendering for those projects? I mean that...

Apparently, there was one company tendering.

And then one last question, and then I have a follow-up to next one. One of the graphs of your strategic outlook, it's building a sustainable tomorrow. I'm not sure if it's just a graph that's a bit misleading or if I'm reading it wrong but if I look towards the end of the graph, so 2027, so more long term. And then you say, okay, we want to grow in rail renovation, green asphalt, et cetera. And the other part of the business shrinks a bit. Does that mean that you don't plan to grow in the residential area and that you, let's say, keep it as a nice site business to have? Or is it just a graph that's maybe a bit misleading when it...

Well, I hope it's not misleading, and I hope you didn't read it in the wrong way. But the idea is the -- let's say, the gist of the picture is that we have these faces in our strategy, and we want to be very reliable, predictable to the market. So what we say is, through the years, more than EUR 6 billion, 4% to 6%. I think that's really important for investors. But we also say, of course, there is a growth ambition in this company. And how can we grow in these very attractive segments like infrastructure, we just mentioned electrification in infrastructure, climate adaptation but also residential, the 1 million homes in the Netherlands. How can you do that? You need to make -- you need to take share, you need to be better than competition. And that's what we try to do, for example, with this wooden housing concept, the flow concept, is to focus on that residential market, transforming into a wooden market or, let's say, our segment and then start to grow. I think that's an honest and realistic way of presenting this to the market because that's what you need to do. You need to be the best in the market focus and transform. And then in the later last stage of the 3-year strategy, we will show the market that we will take share and we will grow in this market. That's the way how this picture is.

So we need to make sure we clarify that. So it's not meant to be misleading, of course. Just pointing out here, there's 5 examples in there. One of them is flow, which is in the core of residential. So it's the opposite of what you just said, I think, that is really residential that will make this company more sustainable and also will remain profitable as such.

Just a few follow-up questions, financial. Then I'll leave the floor to [indiscernible]. Civil Engineering Netherlands, if I look at 2022, H1, H2, 2023, H1, H2, then there was an upgoing trend in the first 3, 6-month period, that stopped -- or actually slightly down in the last 6 months period. Why is that? That would be question number one. And then the second question, Frans for you. You mentioned Construction and Property, Netherlands, should take a year-on-year type of view. That's fine. What did Water Telecom Energy do, which is part of C&P now? In 2023 versus 2022. Has that influenced the performance of Construction & Property? And then my final one, a colleague, I had not spotted it, not heard about it but apparently, the minister has sent a letter to parliament about the [indiscernible], now stating that the total cost will be twice the latest budget. Now I know what your position is, but if you could shed some light on whether it has an influence on BAM or not?

Let me start with that one, and you can think about the other one. Yes, I saw that too. I think it came out with this whole formation discussion where this information was sent maybe a bit too early or earlier than expected to, let's say, to media and to the parliament. I was surprised with that, too, because we -- well, surprised. I only know that we made we signed a contract with the government to finalize the level project with [ Utrecht ] projects, including some of the elements and including -- for example, the new . That's part of the BAM scope, and we are very busy doing that now, and that's on track. So you don't see any negative results of that in our books. But the part that's not anymore in our scope is still a substantial element where also in the past, some questions were raised from -- in specifications. And that needs to be tendered to the market. And then I'm also, let's say, in somebody outside of this -- of the tender and of this scope just like you can only see what happens then. But that's then expected to be more expensive in the end but that's not part of BAM scope. So we are not in that anymore, and we will not tender for that. Absolutely clear.

That's clear. Just one follow-up on that if these projects -- if those components move forward but they are now slightly delayed. Does that delay have something -- an impact on what is in scope for BAM or are they completely separate?

No, that's not the case. We can really finalize our part of the new [indiscernible] and the [indiscernible] part of the project. And then after that, there will be this scope implemented by somebody else.

Yes. So I had time to think about the answer, Martijn. And so connecting maybe your 2 questions, the year-on-year and the better half year -- second half -- first half of the year. I think for Civil to come to, that one is a nice example. So what we see, if you go back to 2019 to 2021, really underperforming. If you look at '22 and '23 year-on-year, EUR 68 million EBITDA, EUR 65 million this year. We are extremely happy with this. We really think Civil Netherlands really contribute structurally to our EBITDA ambitions in a stable way. Yes, if you take a half year, you see a pattern, we say, okay, maybe there's a trend within the year. I would refrain from that conclusion because you just see a lot of timing effects in the portfolio in the year.

So safely it too much in season. Normally seasonality would mean you have a better H2 than H1. So this is just...

I agree with that. There's, of course, a seasonal pattern. But for civil, always large claims discussion with clients, timing of settlements, you also should take a more holistic view. And then we really truly believe that Civil for the Netherlands is in a good place. With the transition stepping away from the [indiscernible] type of risk to more transition -- energy transition, regional projects, smaller projects with acceptable risk that we can handle, bringing Civil to the profitability where we want it to be, where it is today.

So large projects in the regional are both at levels that you're happy with?

We are happy with the contribution of Civil in the Netherlands. The other one about Water and Telecom, that's on the higher end of the contributions.

Higher in 2023 than in 2020?

If you look at the total of the segment, you asked, okay, below your second, what is this specific area doing? And we don't give numbers on that. But we say it's better than average. So it's an attractive place for BAM to be active in.

I have 2 questions from, Maarten Verbeek from The Idea, by e-mail. So we will ask -- so 2 blocks. The first is about dividend. First, why did BAM not implement a 100% cash dividend as of this year? And secondly, could you clarify your statement on EUR 30 million share buyback. BAM stated intent to neutralize the shares issued for dividend. The share buyback of EUR 30 million, is that on top of the buyback to neutralize the issued shares related to the dividend?

Yes, thanks. Important question. So opportunity to clarify. So yes, in our new capital allocation, we prefer to do cash dividends going forward. However, that is a new element, and we think the dividend over 2023 should we expect previous statements. So we still offer a stock dividend over 2023 dividend. We will do that for the last time. And hence, after our Annual General Meeting and Q1 numbers are in the market, we will first redeem those shares out of the market. So we'll purchase them back. We also do incentive share buybacks. So we will conduct this as well. And then to answer the second question, if that is all completed on top, we will do a EUR 30 million share buyback.

And then second question is about free cash flow. CapEx is likely to increase due to electrification of equipment and trade working, and trade working capital is continuing to be less negative. Does this imply that we have seen a peak in free cash flow now?

So I mean a true statement in detail. So the capital expenditure investing in the company electrification will be at least at the same level as it is this year. It will not explode but it will maintain on this level. And indeed, we expect trade working capital to continue the trend that we saw this year. So 1% to 2% further normalization of trade working capital is something we expect. After that, we think things will stabilize. So it will remain a minus double-digit trade working capital efficiency percentage. And then I only always give the ingredients. So still for BAM, I would factor in EUR 450 million of operational cash, say, the seasonal pattern through the year that is still there of EUR 150 million dipping out over summer. And then adding the new elements you hear today on dividend and on buybacks, should give you the input for your cash modeling going forward.

[indiscernible] ABN AMRO. I have a few questions. First 2 about residential and nonresidential market. To start with residential. Could you elaborate a bit on the mix -- on the sales mix in the home sales? For example, the numbers, which have been sold to investors compared to private individuals. And I'm also really interested to hear about how well the flow concept, for example, is received by investors, and if you see the appetite there? My second question is about nonresidential market and then especially in the U.K. and Ireland. We can see some headwinds in international real estate developments. And how is that affecting your order intake in U.K. and Ireland. So to start with those.

Maybe I'll start with the flow concept and the acceptance in the market. I think a very important question because this is new. So it's a new concept. It's very attractive for customers because they can really customize their home. And especially, we visualize it in what they think is very nice. So we have high expectations. But it's also new. And that means we have to position it in the market to consumers but also to investors, and that's what we're doing right now. And the first reactions are really positive. But you have to explain it. You have to show it, of course. And we're in that phase. So we see the first ones now being sold and the first examples coming through. But that's the challenge for the next period and always with new products that will take some time to get that, let's say, big time through. But this is so attractive and we strongly believe in this for all kind of reasons. It's more sustainable. We capture CO2 in the house instead of the other way around. It's very comfortable to live in a wooden house, and it gives a lot of flexibility to consumers to, indeed, to customize around place. So a lot of advantages. But yes, we have to sell it to all parties involved, and that's what we're doing right now. So you see in '24, the first wooden house is being sold and built and then it will ramp up very quickly over the next couple of years.

And could you give some indication about the sales split between the investors and private individuals?

Yes. So no surprise, with uncertainty in governmental policies, interest rates, transactions with institutional investors, they are a bit more hesitant. So we see typically this year more sales to private individuals than to institutions. Although in the fourth quarter, we saw large numbers, there are also still institutional transactions in there but it's less than we see in normal years.

Is it more 50-50 or 60-40?

It's always roughly 50-50 but institutional is now below 50%.

Yes, and in the U.K., I think you're absolutely right. Also, there are some hesitance from -- in the nonresidential office players. You see there are a lot of opportunity in refurbishment, it's also a strength of BAM. So we're taking the first projects in there, where people looked first only for new fancy buildings. People are now more and more interested also from a sustainability point of view, to use, let's say, existing materials. And that gives us a lot of opportunity, of course, with our expertise to show how attractive that can be for companies while it can still look very good and can be a very nice working environment for people in an office. But as a renovation and not always is a new one. So that's also an opportunity coming through now in this world where people are a bit more hesitant in investing in new office spaces, which is clearly the case.

And do you have an indication about the number of refinancings going on in the nonresidential market and how that might affect your -- the order intake?

No, I don't think so. We don't start to gamble there. We have to look that up, I guess. It's not our expertise. But it's difficult.

Yes, it might impact investment decisions.

I think it's important that interest rates have at least stabilized because in the rise of the interest rates, the business case would be different 3 months later than it is today. So stabilization is important, but yes, there's a prospect of interest rates, if they will come down, it will of course create more comfort there.

It's a very fine balance. We are active in some big tenders, of course, in this field. And then you see how fine that balance is with interest rates and opportunity for investors, which is normal. And then it can be just a very good investment or a good investment, or it can be just a real nondurable investment. And that's where we are with some of these big projects. So some go in and go out again in -- on our table.

Okay. I have 2 follow-up questions, more on the sustainability side. And the first one is about carbon reporting, obviously, obligatory under CSRD. Right now, you're reporting on Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions. When are you planning to report also about Scope 3 emissions?

I'm so happy with your question because indeed, we are proud of our financial results but also very proud of sustainability performance of the company and realizing those targets, although it's a journey. So it's -- we are ambitious going forward as well. But it's not only about the living on the target, also about the quality of the reporting. So we're really pleased that the Scope 3 emissions will be disclosed in the 2023 Annual Report, that we will bring to the market end of next week. And in there, you will see also supported by limited assurance of the auditor, first assessment and numbers of Scope 3, which is then also very visible how large the Scope 3 impact is on the construction company compared to a Scope 1 and 2.

I can imagine it's a hard thing to gather all the data as BAM traditionally is, well, what's 30%, 70%, right? 30% of the emissions is by yourself and the other 70% or 80%...

It's bigger, it's -- 97% is Scope 3. So it's the first time I dare to say this percentage because we have limited assurance on it but it is very complex. And indeed, it is a lot of data about how your materials that you use are produced and what kind of footprint do they bring but also the use of the products that you sell. And specifically, we get more and more insight in this but it's not only about the houses and the flow concept, for example, which may be more straightforward to measure but also civil products. So many business units, many products, a lot of data points that are new to us. and still a journey to go to make this more accurate and improve it. But we're happy with this step that we can take.

Okay. My final question is about grid infrastructure work, for example, in the Netherlands. There's a lot to do about energy transition, also about net congestion. So that seems a very attractive area to work in. But how do you deal with staffing? Because I can imagine it's quite hard to find the right people in civil engineering works but also in electrical engineering. That's -- those are the kinds of persons you need for those jobs.

Yes, absolutely. And that is a growing field. And more and more, let's say, our portfolio in the U.K. as well. We do big electrification projects, land stations, for example, for windmill parks coming in on land -- the land stations. We do the same in the Netherlands for TenneT, for example. Yes, absolutely right. You need different people, different engineers than maybe sometimes the civil engineers we had for these, let's say, big civil projects. Or these -- you can train these -- the same people now in this field, and that's a mixture of retraining, using. For example, what I learned, the knowledge we have in rail, you can use again in the electrification rail because also there, you have high voltage charging in the rail.

So you have a slight advantage there.

Well, that's a nice thing of a company like BAM that you can look at your total portfolio and you could say, "Hey, that's interesting. These people already for years and years and years do that, in this case, for rail." And that acknowledge we can now use for an electrification project in the harbor, for example, in Amsterdam, or for TenneT or for other customers like Liander. And in that balance, still we need more people like that. So it's not like I'm saying here, it's all soft and we have enough that we are looking for people all the time. But of course, we have very attractive projects. And for technical people, it's still the very interesting to work for a company like BAM where you can do these big attractive electrification projects.

Maybe a tiny follow-up question then I'm finished. I can imagine that the profitability profile is also more attractive for these kinds of projects than, for example, large maintenance works for Rijkswaterstaat or something else?

It's interesting to see if you do -- if you analyze your portfolio on financials but you do separate analysis on sustainability impact that there is a lot of overlap. So projects can be profitable and sustainable, and that's where BAM wants to be in that area.

Yes, what we see is that these companies, for them speed is really important. Because the speed of the electrification is too slow in both U.K. and the Netherlands. So big amounts of money are available to invest quickly. So reliability and speed are then set of, let's say, in the balance with risk and pricing. And then these projects become more, let's say, interesting for us as well.

So you would say they were -- your clients are willing to pay a premium for...

Well, not paying premium, but I think for them, reliability and speed is more important. I think they also learned from what they've seen in the market in Infra trying not to push all the risk to the -- to BAM in this case for a very low margin, yes, that's not the way forward. If you want to electrify your country in -- let's say, in a decade, then it will not work. And I think these parties, they understand that.

Time for one more question. Can you please show?

Strategic period 2024, 2026. Do you think -- I understand you obviously have on a monthly or quarterly basis, a list of large projects, which are on your watch list? Will that watch list in 2026, be completely avoid what we now call the legacy projects? Or will that linger on?

Well, there'll always be a little bit big projects. Statistically, that will happen but this will become smaller and smaller and smaller. That's the idea. The project, I mean on that list. What we see already now because some of these projects that are big and risky fall off that list but some are still there. And so lingering on, no, we are actively managing to get real risky project out of that list, of course, finalize them and not take new ones in. But in all honesty, there are still a few on that list. And maybe in '26, there will be maybe 1 or 2 fill on that list. That indeed -- the target is to actively manage and tender for projects that are less risky and more profitable. And that big list of -- let's say, the big project list then will consist of these kind of projects. That's what we're going to do.

Lingering wasn't meant in a negative manner. But -- okay, so the list will become shorter, and the value outcome will decline.

The yearly revenue involves will decline.

To potential claim outflows?

I think it's not only the number of projects but the larger ones from the whole portfolio, if you like, where you're focusing on, you have more experience every year in trying to understand where they are and a better view on how they will land, so also the accuracy of your -- the position that you take on the projects will have to become more accurate over time. And that helps as well, of course. So we have a good -- better understanding of the project and the risks and how to price it into your forecast.

Thank you very much for coming today, and hopefully, see you next time. Thank you very much. Have a good day.

Thank you. Enjoy the day.