Koninklijke BAM Groep nv (BAMNB) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Hello, and welcome to the trading update first 9 months 2024. My name is Caroline, and I'll be your operator for today's event. Please note this call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand over the call to your host, Ruud Joosten, the CEO, to begin today's conference. Thank you.

Good morning, and welcome to this analyst call for Royal BAM Group, following the publication of our trading statement this morning. I am Ruud Joosten, CEO. With me are Frans den Houter, our CFO; and Michel Aupers, our Investor Relations Manager. For our opening slide, we show you the sea lock of [indiscernible]. On 11 October, we -- the lock was officially opened by King Philippe of Belgium and King Willem-Alexander of the Netherlands. With the length of 427 meters, width of 55 meters and depth of over 60 meters, this is one of the longest locks in the world, largest locks in the world. Lock was enabled -- will enable a smoother flow of marine traffic between Belgium, France, and the Netherlands. We are proud of BAM's contribution to the realization of this engineering achievement, which we completed in close cooperation with our joint venture partners. But to be clear, this type of high-risk one-off projects does not longer fit in our portfolio. Looking at our financial performance in the first 9 months, revenue was slightly higher than compared to '23. This was mainly driven by the division Netherlands. Most of BAM's activities performed well in the third quarter. We reported an adjusted EBITDA of EUR 203 million, somewhat above the level of last year. This amount translates to a margin of 4.4%. In the third quarter, the result included a EUR 9 million positive contribution for the revaluation of our earn-out in Invesis. Frans will come back to this in more detail. Let me highlight the developments per division. In Division Netherlands, the performance of the residential activities further improved. The Dutch residential market is strong, and we sold 1,233 homes, which is above the level of last year. This is the result of our high-quality portfolio and leading position in the market, supported by solid consumer confidence due to a combination of increased salaries, continued low employment and stabilization of the interest rates. We remain positive regarding the opportunities in the residential market. In September, we officially opened our factory for the industrial and circular production of our wooden Flow homes, and we have completed the first 13 homes of our [indiscernible] project West of Amsterdam. This innovative housing concept is well received by the market. In this moment, we have already sold more than 300 Flow homes. Flow is not just a factory to produce homes. Our intellectual property is the digital model and the integral concept from design, planning, manufacturing, and installation. In the division Netherlands, in this quarter, the contribution of nonresidential was impacted by cost overruns and the delayed completion of 2 schools in Denmark. Operational performance of Civil Engineering remained solid, also supported by the robust demand related to the ongoing energy transition. For instance, in the third quarter, BAM was awarded a multiyear contract with TenneT to upgrade the electricity grid. In the division United Kingdom and Ireland, Civil Engineering U.K. delivered strong results, supported by high activity levels. Also, Ventures in Ireland continued their solid performance. Last month, we met with the Irish Minister of Health. During this meeting, we confirmed that it remains BAM's priority to deliver the National Children's Hospital for the benefit of the children of Ireland and their families as quickly as possible. Delivery is expected mid next year, provided that the client is not requesting for additional variation orders. The performance of Construct U.K. continued to be impacted by earlier reported project delays and supply chain issues. The U.K. construction market continues to be competitive. On a positive note, there is an attractive pipeline of several education schemes. And last but not least, our activities in Belgium delivered satisfying performance. Over to you, Frans, for some more background regarding the financials.

Yes. Thank you, Ruud. I'm also pleased that the majority of our portfolio performed well, resulting in a modest increase of our revenue and a stable adjusted EBITDA. Our strong backlog is a confirmation that we are well positioned for the future. Our liquidity position remains solid at EUR 0.5 billion, and it's good to see our trade working capital efficiency stabilized at minus 11.4% at the end of the third quarter. That is in line with our view that we expect trade working capital efficiency to stabilize during the second half of the year. Our capital ratio improved to 25%. This is explained by the net results generated in the third quarter, which was partly offset by the effect of our share buyback program that is nearing completion. As mentioned by Ruud, in the third quarter, our result was supported by EUR 9 million due to the reevaluation of the Invesis earn-out. Let me give you a bit more background. At the end of 2020, we divested 50% of Invesis to PGGM. Part of the agreement was an earn-out scheme that rewards BAM for the success of Invesis to add new projects to the PPP portfolio. The EUR 9 million earn-out confirms that Invesis is on track to deliver on the business plan. Finally, I would like to mention that we extended our EUR 330 million revolving credit facility by 1 year to 2028. This is a clear sign of confidence from the financial markets and all banks decided to participate. Back to you, Ruud.

Frans mentioned already the positive development of our order book, which increased by almost 20% during the first 9 months. We continue to focus on margin above volume and some projects with a strong sustainability aspect. Also in the third quarter, our book-to-bill ratio was well above 100%. Most of our recent project wins are in line with our strategic objective to expand in sustainable solutions. We are confident that our strategic road map will deliver value to our clients, create development opportunities for our employees, and generate attractive returns to our shareholders. Looking ahead for the full year '24, we reiterate our outlook to deliver an adjusted EBITDA margin within the strategic range between 4% and 5%. Now let's open the line for your questions.

[Operator Instructions] We will take the first question from line Martijn den Drijver from ABN AMRO.

[Technical Difficulty] but was there a material impact from the…

Sorry, Mr. Martijn, sorry, Frans here. We missed your opening. So we just picked up.

I apologize. Maybe a technical glitch on my part. I have a few questions, and I'll take first 2 small ones to get to the more important one. With regards to the Danish schools, was there a material impact in Q3? And I would qualify a material impact as between EUR 0 and EUR 5 million.

Yes. In that definition, you can call this material. We mentioned already during the half year numbers, the material impact of our results of the Dutch Bouw en Techniek part of the business by the Danish schools. We are in full operation to finalize the 4 schools, that we finalized 2. We are now at the end of, let's say, the last 2 schools. And yes, there are, of course, at the end of these projects, always pluses and minuses. And so also in Q3, there was that impact.

Moving on to the same type of subject, these delays and supply chain issues in BAM Construct U.K. Same question, material, so EUR 0 to EUR 5 million, yes or no?

Yes.

Now let's say that I take your -- now that the real question comes, I'm a little bit puzzled by the remarks about the positive trends in the Netherlands performance and the strong performance of the U.K. and Ireland because if you take the EUR 4.6 million, which is your reported EBITDA minus the Invesis reevaluation and you add back EUR 10 million, it's still below the EBITDA margin of Q2, and it's below the EBITDA margin of Q3 of last year. So I'm puzzled as to how you can call this positive trend and strong performance, while on a sequential and year-on-year basis, you're reporting a decline in EBITDA margins.

Yes. Of course, it has to do with the definition of EBITDA. We consider the EBITDA coming from the reevaluation of Invesis as an operational result because it's based on a performance-based reevaluation. So in that sense, probably totally agree on the definition of adjusted EBITDA. And yes, let's say, when I look at the total business, I'm really happy with the progress in -- by far, the biggest part of our portfolio. If you look at the Dutch division, in all Dutch activities, we see very good progress. This time mentioned the increase of the sales of the homes in the Netherlands, a big percentage organic growth, which is really nice, but also Civil doing really strong. Also looking at the order book for the Dutch division, very positive. Outlook for residential also positive going into '25, '26. But also, specials doing a really good job. So the Dutch, let's say, region is doing really good. Of course, there is this impact of the Danish schools that we are now at the end phase. So I have to be positive looking at the results of all the real Dutch activities. In the U.K., a bit same story with the exception of the mentioned earlier U.K. Construct developments, where we see, yes, the mentioned projects in the end phase. And yes, you know how that goes. We need to come to some resolutions with customers at the end. What I do see on a positive note that, let's say, after this project or a few projects in construct, I see a positive trend coming up. Also reiterated by the government last week in the budget meeting in the U.K. on investment in the educational schemes. There we -- in the U.K., we have a solid position. So looking forward, I'm also -- I'm not too negative about U.K. Construct for BAM. But it's also clear that at this moment in time, the commercial construction business in the U.K. is still extremely competitive. And you see a lot of companies going broke and bankrupt within the supply chain. And clearly, we are also hit by that. That's also fair to say, I think, at this moment in time.

Just one follow-up on the delays in supply chain issues and the comments you just made. Would it be fair to assume that this could also still impact Q4, Q1 or is it really fading off, fading away?

Yes. I'm looking at Frans as well. We are at the end of these, let's say, risky projects that we mentioned already in Q2, where some of these aspects are more focused on, I think. But maybe Frans is also pointing out that he would like to respond.

I think you were referring to the bankruptcies or Martijn, in Q4. You said Q1, but you meant Q4, I assume.

Yes. I'm aware of the higher rate of bankruptcies in the U.K. and some impact you, some don't. But I was just wondering whether the effect will fade away in, let's say, in the coming quarter or 2 quarters? Or should we take this into account for a longer period? Just your thoughts on that statement.

No, we remain very focused on this. It's difficult to forecast, of course. And as Ruud just said, we experienced some bankruptcies in the supply chain that cost us money also in Q3, specifically in Construct U.K. And I think it would be -- yes, I think we have to see how that evolves in Q4, but it's difficult to forecast, of course. We remain very focused on managing our supply chain very carefully. So really making sure we allocate the risk in our procurement properly to preferably solid partners. But then you see in Construct U.K., 2 smaller suppliers tipping over. You have to go to the market again. And there's some impact that we see in Q3. So we keep very close track on it, and we will give you an update in Q4 on this one.

Two other questions on the trade working capital. It actually improved in Q3, whereas I think, pretty sure actually, that you guided for trade working capital to move closer to the 11% instead of now actually improving. What should we expect for the year? Is that deterioration still in the books? Or is this the level that we should take going forward?

I'm very happy with this question because we discussed a delta of 0.2% here. Coming from minus 18% and having guided to say we will be around minus 11%. This is exactly the type of discussion I was hoping for. So we're in the minus 11% range. And yes, if we look at how we see our portfolio and clients' behavior, then we expect it to stabilize going forward. It's not possible to forecast that on 0.2%, but stabilization around this level. So no cash out anymore on normalization of trade working capital that we have seen in the past quarters or years, maybe even, is a very important next step for us.

And then following up on that, if trade working capital remains at this level, and usually, your Q4 is the best quarter. What are your thoughts on share buybacks and capital allocation beyond M&A?

Yes. At this moment in time, we don't make any remarks on that as usual. So we will look at full year results and come up with our proposal and then come back to you probably Feb -- half of Feb '25.

We'll take the next question from line Tijs Hollestelle from ING.

Sorry to also bother you on the U.K. Construction & Property business. I still find it, let's say, difficult to understand because if I look at the last 12 months' operating loss, it's over EUR 50 million, and then it's on EUR 1 billion of revenue. So I guess that there are also projects which are profitable. So the losses, let's say, accumulated close to EUR 80 million or EUR 85 million. There is something else in it than, let's say, a few bankrupt suppliers. So what are the project losses? And like Martijn was asking, what can we expect for the second half? And I understand that you also have, let's say, limited visibility, but you do have a very good sight on the implied project risk. So is it again minus 20%? And is it, let's say, compensated by a very healthy infrastructure performance? Because I do recognize that the overall performance of BAM improved massively. So you can now, let's say, back up these kind of losses by, yes, let's say, better performance in some other areas. But yes, the unpredictability of this makes me feel like the old BAM and it doesn't give me a lot of comfort, the answers you so far gave. So guidance on this would be really helpful.

Yes. Let me maybe start with reiterating the numbers we shared on this, give a bit more context. So indeed, we struggle with this segment, and we've discussed that in the past 4 quarters and recognize the numbers you mentioned. Yes, Ruud already commented on the market as such, that is challenging. But in terms of numbers, we have disclosed the results on co-op, the Manchester Arena in the first half being a loss of EUR 30 million. So yes, if you're saying, okay, here supply chain bankruptcies, that doesn't reconcile it for me. Let's also make sure that that EUR 30 million reported in H1 is still on your radar and then supplemented by -- in Q3 by the items we just discussed. Maybe for going forward, you want to add something on Q4, Ruud, or?

Well, I fully agree that this year is a difficult year for U.K. Construct because of their extremely competitive market circumstances with these bankruptcies in the supply chain, but also the planning and the delays we had on co-op arena, which is by far the biggest impact on our results. Until now, we are now finalizing that project. The last details are being implemented now. And of course, clearly, these kind of projects we'll not do in the future anymore. That's also very clear. We are much more focusing on already mentioned educational schemes where we build a series of schools, let's say, in the same kind of concept, much more aligned with our industrial way of thinking. And happy to say that also the U.K. government is going in this direction. And of course, the focus will not be anymore on this high-risk one-off arena like we built in Manchester. So strategically, that doesn't fit our portfolio, and we will not go further with these kind of projects. And this can also lead to a further restructuring of U.K. Construct and reengineering it to the size we expect it to be necessary for '25. So that's in progress. And indeed, it's also very clear that there is a very good tailwind in the civil engineering activities also in the U.K., like in the Netherlands, with big stream of tenders coming through in the energy transition area that really fit our way of working with contracts that fit our way of working with a customer that can pay the bills, which is really important as well. So that's clearly fair to say, I think, where we are today. Still U.K. Construct long-term in a good position to take advantage of the investment by -- especially by government in health care and education and very picky on projects in the commercial arena.

That's quite helpful because indeed, if you then subtract the EUR 30 million from the first half, then it would have been a low, but positive result, which then reflecting market -- difficult market conditions. And in the current portfolio, because the co-op arena was a bit of a surprise for me. It was not on my radar screen in terms of risky projects. But are there any other of these kind of significant projects in execution running into the second half, but especially also next year that could give this kind of trouble?

Well, we try to give an overview in Q2 or half year of the remaining big projects as we see them going forward to report to you guys. And we mentioned that we had when we started this strategy, something like 23, 25 of these huge risky projects. We see going forward -- well, we mentioned the list then New Children Hospital, Crossrail, and National Children Hospital and the Fehmarnbelt as the key ones to discuss with you guys, if possible. And that's where we are. So you don't see other of these kind of commercial construct projects in that list as we speak. Happy to say that -- yes, well, happy to say, we mentioned that we talked to the Minister in Ireland on the new Children Hospital. We are expecting to finalize that project half of '25 with the, let's say, remark that we don't need any more changes by the customer in that respect, but that's where we are. So Fehmarnbelt will be on that list for, let's say, the next 6 or 7 years. But luckily there, we are only 12.5% of that list. So long answer, to your question. So the answer is no, but we are also very transparent on the remaining projects that are still in this portfolio where we have question marks.

We will take the next question from Simon van Oppen from Kepler.

Simon van Oppen from Kepler Cheuvreux. I'm filling in for Tim Ehlers this morning. I have one question about the margin improvements in Q3. Were the margin improvements across the 2 divisions? Can you please give a little bit of flavor on that?

No. So normally, we don't give margin details per division in Q3, Simon. I think what is important is the overall message that we give and the coloring that we did in the introduction on the segments. So we see improvement in residential. We see nonresidential in the Netherlands impacted by the schools in Denmark, and we see continued solid performance in Civil in the Netherlands. So those are the 3 segments comments in [ NL ]. In the U.K., and I'm just repeating that, we are very happy with the results in Civil, very solid performance in Ventures in Ireland. And then, yes, we discussed extensively the headwinds we still have in Construction U.K. And as such, that taken on to the mix, we come to the 4.4% year-to-date and a reconfirmation of the outlook.

[Operator Instructions] We will take the next question from the line of Maarten Verbeek from The Idea.

It's Maarten Verbeek for The Idea. A couple of questions from my side, please. Firstly, you obtained the earn-out fee of EUR 9 million from Invesis. That has now been completed. So there's not an additional earn-out fee to be expected in this respect?

Good question. Yes, well, no is the answer because that mechanism is in place till the end of next year. We agreed a business plan at the time, and we now see that we're on track in delivering on it. That's why we're able to take the EUR 9 million in Q3, yes, and then up to see how the portfolio will further evolve in the coming 5 quarters until the end of '25 can result in an additional amount on earn-out that we can recognize. The cash on this will then only be received in 2026. So that's a year later. So the mechanism is still out there for 5 quarters to come.

You sold a nice number of houses in the Netherlands in Q3, which gives you also more confident about what you've stated earlier. What you've stated earlier still lives up to what you stated today, you stated approximately 1,700, and that is more than the 1,670. But still underlying, it feels that you are even a bit more optimistic about this 1,700 number. Is that correct?

Underlying, the answer is yes. But on the other hand, you always have to realize as well that in the last quarter, there can be big transactions coming through with investors, for example. With big numbers of homes integrated in these deals. So in that sense, we are a bit -- well, not a bit, we are conservative. Of course, I'm really happy with the increase we show organically over the first 9 months. That's also true.

But I also hear that it's more timing than something else that underlying, it's performing pretty well.

Well, I think more importantly, the underlying market is really strong. And with the positions we have and the investment we did in the Flow factory, for example, there's a lot of opportunity going forward. So it's not like that the market is not there or that's restricting our sales. I think we all know that this is much more linked to permitting in the Netherlands and having all kind of objective -- objection possibilities by everybody in the Netherlands to stop projects. And that's much more, I think, having an impact on the number of homes we can sell in the future. So, I think stabilizing interest rates, increasing salaries, and a very big demand for homes will be there for a very long period in the Netherlands, which is very attractive for BAM. And then with the industrialized way of producing these homes with our Flow factory, we are in a very strong position. So that number is not restricted by us in that sense. It's restricted and also not by the market, it's restricted by the opportunity we get to build these homes and to develop them within the total area of the Netherlands. And I think that's not only our problem that we see, I think our colleagues having exactly the same statement on this. It's a very attractive and positive market going forward. And luckily, in the first 9 months, you see our increase in the number of homes being sold. And yes, that can continue, but it would not be realistic to come with very exact numbers on that based on the permitting situation and the availability of land to build these homes. So that's why we stay realistic on the short-term and try to deliver what we promise to the market, but with a very positive view on the future.

And lastly, we discussed the working capital and even it improved in this quarter. Whilst initially, you stated it would arrive towards minus 11% at the year-end. Now you say more or less we expect it to stabilize at the current level. Do you also dare to more or less change your target of better than minus 10% to better than minus 11%, what you -- because earlier you stated better than minus 10%, but what you stated now, you're also there to improve that statement to better than minus 11% going forward?

So yes, so maybe -- as I said, I like the discussion, but forecasting trade working capital up to decimals of percentages in a construction company is difficult. I see it as additional guidance, better than minus 10% and now managing the market stabilization around minus 11% because it's very depending on also behavior of clients and supply chain, specifically at year-end, we are also open to external influences, what do interest rates do. It all has an effect. So better than minus 10%, expect it to be around minus 11%. And with that, what is more important, we don't have the significant cash outs on the normalization of the trade working capital anymore. That's not what we expect. I hope that helps you.

We have a follow-up question from Martijn den Drijver from ABN AMRO.

I just wanted to come back to some incidents. We've had the bridge incident in, what was it, [indiscernible]. We had the train incident. Did that have any impact in the first 9 months at all? And now that certain investigations have been concluded, is that something we should continue to follow in terms of a possible impact? Or can we move on from that?

Well, the impact is huge on the company, absolutely clear on that one. Of course, it reinforces the idea that safety is first priority, but also the dangers within a construction company like this are substantial. And as management here, we spent a lot of time over the last 9 months thinking about this. And we started an internal project to come up with more strict safety rules for BAM. We're in the end phase of delivering that, and that will be implemented during '25 because it's unacceptable for us to take the responsibility for a business that is so dangerous, and we have to do our utmost to improve that safety culture within our company, but within the whole market because we're also dependent there on subcontractors and customers. It's a big, big issue. And I can assure you that it's more important than anything else in the company at this moment in time because the shock this year was extreme when we had the Lochem incident, as you can imagine.

And from a financial point of view, it's not -- that is not key, obviously, but from a financial point of view, has there been any impact that we should take into account or could still take into account -- should still take into account?

Yes. And it's irrelevant there because in the context that you just described. But just to reconfirm that financial impact is not deemed something to discuss. It's only impacting our insurance cost going forward, which is something we have to deal with.

Clear. And then we haven't heard a while from our friends at the fiscal investigation services or whatever you want to call that in English, [ the field ]. Have there been any new inquiries? Has there been radio silence? What can you tell us? Are you just in the blind as to what's happening there?

Well, blind is maybe a big word, Martijn. But indeed, this is fully in the hands of the Dutch government Justice Department, and we are indeed listening to radio silence there as well, just like you. So yes, of course, we hope to -- just like you and everybody else, I guess, to finalize this as soon as possible, but completely out of our hands.

No, I appreciate that. [indiscernible] is still dealing with it, that's from 2019. Moving on, just coming back to the questions of Maarten with regards to the Dutch resi. I understand your cautiousness. But maybe can you talk a little bit about waiting list? The waiting lists are a key indicator of consumer interest. Are those still lengthening? Do you see the return of investors? What are the housing corporations telling you? Are they doing business with you? So can you elaborate a little bit more on granular points that you can actually witness apart from expectations?

Well, the first granular point, of course, and by far, the most important probably is the increase in the numbers. So you see this increase in numbers sold. That's a very important point. Secondly, again, indeed, what you see is that there is a waiting list or a big number of people to buy our homes. So that's back to that kind of situation again as we had a couple of years ago that it's not a problem at all to sell homes. So that situation is back on the market, which is a clear signal that, yes, that you can sell your homes if you can produce them going forward. For the rest, I think, yes, I think everybody can read the newspapers that there's a lot of political pressure as well to increase, let's say, flexibility and increase opportunity to build homes in the Netherlands. What I'm a bit more reluctant on or more pessimistic on is these investors. I think if you push them away like we did in the Netherlands to a certain extent by new legislation and tax legislation, you cannot expect them to come back within 3 months. I think they also have their strategic planning and their capital allocation planning. And yes, I think that will take more time to have them back in the Netherlands. So I think that's a big problem for one part of the market. In the consumer market, of course, that's different. So on the consumer market, that looks much more positive and that demand is extremely strong at this moment in time, and that will continue to be extremely strong going forward.

Clear, clear. Now you briefly touched upon the outlook for 2025, mainly in resi and also in civil engineering. But more generally speaking, where we stand today, what should we think about building materials and wages, still in an upward trajectory, but less so than in 2024? How should we think about that? Is that a tailwind or headwind?

Yes. You see globally, of course, and also in the Netherlands, a flattening of inflation, but you also see there are quarterly surprises in that respect. Let's say, the very high double-digit kind of increases are off the table, I think, but we still expect some increase in wages and in building materials, but much more plannable, I would say, fitting into, let's say, normal course of business. It's also more complex, of course, because on one hand, increase of salaries is a cost in our payroll. But on the other hand, it's also a positive for people -- for consumers to be able to buy a home. So these are more complex aspects, as you can imagine.

And then my final question is just a follow-up on the Danish schools. Will they be completed before year-end 2024?

No, they will not be completed this year. There are 2 schools left. One school is at the very last part of completion. So that will be somewhere around that date to be finalized and the other one a little bit later.

It appears no further question at this time. I'll hand it back over to your host for closing remarks.

Yes, that brings the call to an end, ladies and gentlemen. We hope to welcome you in our analyst meeting for the full year results February 13 next year. Thank you for your participation, and wish you a good day.

Enjoy your day.

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