L1 Long Short Fund Limited (LSF) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning. My name is Amar Naik. I'm the Head of Research for the L1 Long Short Fund. Today, we'd like to cover 3 main topics: first is an update on fund performance; secondly, our observations on the market and how the portfolio is positioned; and finally, a snapshot of some of the key themes and portfolio positions we like going forward. I'll cover the first 2 topics, and I'll hand over to Rafi Lamm, our Co-CIO, for the final topic. So going to fund performance. As you can see from the table, the LSF continues to show strong performance over the short, medium and long term. Since inception of the fund in 2014, the strategy has delivered 20% per annum, making it the best-performing long short strategy in Australia by some margin. We have had a good start to the year, with the fund up double digits over the year-to-date. And we'll walk through some of the key contributors and detractors later in the presentation. Coming to our market observations and positioning. There's been 3 main economic drivers of markets over the year-to-date. There's been economic growth, inflation and interest rates. Starting on economic growth. The biggest surprise to us and the market as a whole has been the strength and resilience of the U.S. economy. As you can see on the chart, U.S. real GDP growth estimates for 2024 have continued to be revised upwards. They're up about 100 basis points since the start of the year, and that is the line going up into the right. Australia has been largely middle of the pack, largely flatlined. Growth has been below the long-term trend, but relatively resilient, underpinned by the strength of our labor market and assisted by commodity prices. And the Eurozone and the U.K. has generally tended lower, but we are seeing some very recent signs of green shoots in recent months, particularly in the U.K. And then on to inflation, it's been more persistent than market expectations. In the U.S., inflation of January, February and March were all above forecast. April was in line. The major contributors here are shelter costs, insurance and gas. If we zoom in on shelter costs, in particular, that's the biggest component of core CPI, at over 30%. OER, which is a large component of shelter, is a lagging indicator and does take a long time to correct. But what we're seeing is that new tenant rental increases are almost flat to only slightly up. That's the light blue line on the chart. And if you look at the OER, which is the dark blue line, it should only be a matter of time before this trends lower. And given the size of contribution within core CPI, we expect this to put downward pressure on core CPI. So overall, while there are inflation risks, these appear manageable, and we think CPI should trend lower in the coming months. And then on to the third big driver, which has been interest rates. And what we've seen is that with higher economic growth rates and more persistent inflation, there's been a sharp revision in interest rates. The U.S. has moved from 6 25 basis point rate cuts at the start of the year to just less than 2 cuts currently. U.K. and Europe have followed a similar path. And Australia has moved from pricing between 2 and 3 cuts at the start of the year to largely neutral now. We now have an interesting dynamic where the U.K. and Europe, which are the dark blue and green lines in the chart, are likely to cut rates ahead of the U.S., which is in light blue. And if we talk about the U.K. specifically, it's been a market that's been depressed for several years with Brexit and COVID overhangs. And very recently, we've started seeing the economy slightly recovering. This will largely be further supported by rate cuts. So we're seeing some really interesting opportunities in the U.K., where valuations remain quite depressed and we've added a few positions to the fund. If we take Australia, Australia is expected to cut much less than other markets. But there's 2 key differentiators for us there. One has been the strength of the Aussie economy, and the second is where the RBA cash rate sits. Currently, the RBA cash rate is at 4.35%. It's about 100 basis points lower than the U.K. and U.S. So ultimately, Australia raised rates less than other international peers and will likely have to cut less on the way down. So if we think about markets overall and look at where they're trading, markets have basically shrugged off the inflation and interest rate risks and on better economic growth have moved higher. If we look at the ASX 200, it's trading 15% above its 20-year average, with a lot of the heavy lifting being done by the banks and the ASX 20, which look like very full valuations versus history. The S&P 500 is trading at 26% above its long-term average, a lot of this driven by the Mag Seven. So if we summarize how we see markets today, for us, the picture is quite mixed overall, and we think markets are relatively full at an index level. On the positive side, central banks, we think will ease, but that's delayed versus expectations and likely happens towards the end of the year. Australia, we think, remains well supported for 2 reasons. One is the surge in migration. It's more than twice the OECD average. It's growing at its strongest pace since the 1950s, and that likely supports growth for the next few years. And again, commodity prices, they remain solid, particularly the oil, gold and copper. Continuing with the positives. We see quite a marked change from China. More recently, they've pivoted stimulus to resolve the housing oversupply issue. Previous stimulus has been more centered around infrastructure spend. But for the first time since the real estate downturn began, we've seen top officials look to directly address issues in the housing market. AI demand has been exceptionally strong and has been a key theme across the market. Pretty much every company we speak to brings it up and talks about it, whether that's industrials or infrastructure, not just technology companies. We have a few positions in the portfolio directly geared at the growth in AI. If we move on to the negatives, inflation, as we discussed before, has been more persistent than expected. We do expect this will get better, but it may take longer. Valuations are generally full, particularly for the ASX 20 and high multiple growth stocks. The geopolitical backdrop is more volatile than it was 18 to 24 months ago. I'm sure we're all following the news daily, and we can see the risks in many parts of the globe today. Profit growth has been resilient so far, but we think it gets more challenging going forward, especially with rates staying more restrictive for longer. Government policy, particularly Industrial Relations and energy, have reduced economic growth and more so domestically. And lastly, we are seeing first signs of weaker consumer sentiment, particularly in consumer discretionary categories. If we think about where the fund is positioned within the market, while at an index level, we do see that markets are full, there is quite a valuation divergence below that. The long short fund is more biased to low PE stocks that are quality companies with good growth outlooks. And if you look at where low PE stocks today trade versus history, they continue to be at a discount to the market relative to their long-term average. So we are still finding a rich opportunity set for stocks out there. And if you look at the median portfolio position, on the long side, our median position typically trades at an 11x P/E. You're getting very strong EPS growth of 14.5% and robust free cash generation at 6.5% free cash flow yield. And our longs tend to have quite strong balance sheets. We are not looking at distressed volatile situations. On the short side, you've got a 19x P/E, so nearly double the valuation, similar growth to our loans and half the cash flow generation. So that just gives you a snapshot of the average position within our fund. If we think about 2 areas of key weakness we see going forward, one is the consumer discretionary category. It's performed really well over the 6 months. The consumer has been very resilient, both in the U.S. and Australia. You've seen consumer discretionary stocks largely move up on a multiple rerate rather than earnings upgrades. Current multiples are now well above pre-COVID levels despite weaker near-term data points. If you look at the excess savings accumulated through COVID in the U.S., those have largely been eroded, and we're seeing both a pickup in credit card balances and credit card delinquencies. Saving rates in Australia are also at historic lows. If we look at recent sales data, both domestically and offshore, we're seeing this weakness play out, particularly in key discretionary categories like furniture, electronics and clothing. We have several short positions in the portfolio exposed to these categories. Another area of weakness we see are the domestic banks. There's been a large multiple rerate over the last few months. If we take Commonwealth Bank as an example, it's trading near all-time high valuation levels but delivering 0% EPS growth over the next 2 years. And if you look at the bank's contribution to the ASX 200, they have driven more than half of the returns over the year-to-date. And we find it difficult to reconcile the current valuations versus the outlook for the banks. As of today, we can invest in offshore banks trading at half the multiple of CBA with a much more favorable growth outlook. And so we struggle to marry up the current valuation. I'll now hand over to Rafi Lamm to take you through the portfolio performance and key themes we see going forward.

Thanks, Amar. Moving to portfolio performance and key themes. Key contributors over the last few months include Downer. Continued evidence of solid progress in the operational turnaround under new management was evident with the first half result, with a further $75 million cost-out opportunities identified to take the total target to $175 million. Qantas, while performing strongly, is still trading at only around 6x PE despite the successful resolution of the ACCC claims and only a modest cost increase associated with the revamped loyalty program. Imdex has continued to grow revenues well above market due to the success of its large investment in R&D and product development set against a difficult market backdrop. The recent rally in gold and copper prices should result in an uplift in exploration drilling in the coming year. Indeed, over the last month or 2, we have seen a raft of capital raisings by small-cap gold and copper companies, which should contribute to this over the next year or 2. On the negative side, Arcadium Lithium has suffered as Australian investors have exited the stock following the merger with Livent. Falling lithium prices and a deferral of some growth projects has further impacted market sentiment towards Arcadium and the sector more broadly. However, we remain positive about Arcadium Lithium's prospects over the medium term. We're investing in 5 key themes that we believe offer compelling asymmetric risk reward. Firstly, infrastructure. This includes names such as Fraport and AGL. Global leaders includes names such as CRH and Flutter. Cash machines include examples such as BlueScope and Tesco. Copper and gold includes names such as Teck and Westgold. And finally, uranium, we are particularly focused on NexGen Energy. Over the last year, many infrastructure shares have lagged the broader markets due to pressure from rising interest rates, and this has created some good opportunities to buy high-quality, monopoly-like assets at a discount. One example is Fraport. Fraport's key asset is the Frankfurt Airport, one of Europe's busiest airports, with around 60 million passengers per annum. They are currently in the final stages of constructing the new EUR 4 billion third terminal in Frankfurt as well as a new terminal in Lima. In the chart below, you can see the decline in CapEx forecast over the next few years, which will result in a step change in free cash flow from 2026 and beyond. Fraport is very undervalued versus airport infrastructure peers based on relative dividend yields expected over the medium term. AGL is very well positioned to benefit from strong long-term electricity demand, with the lowest cost base load generation in New South Wales and Victoria. The recent rise in wholesale electricity futures prices sets AGL up for a likely solid recovery in earnings in FY '26, after a modest forecast dip in FY '25. Strong medium-term free cash flow will enable solid dividends as well as a substantial investment in energy transition, for example, in high-returning battery storage. Currently, AGL is trading around 4.5x EBITDA, well below its historical multiple of around 6x. While less known to Australia and U.S.A. investors, CRH is the largest building products company in North America, with a market cap of around USD 55 billion. Primary listing shifted from London to New York Stock Exchange in September '23, and this has led to a partial closing of the valuation gap to well-known U.S.A. peers like Vulcan and Martin Marietta. CRH, however, is still only trading on a P/E of around 15x. CRH has good end market exposures that will benefit from massive U.S.A. government funding, especially in the infrastructure space. U.S.A. aggregates exposure is highly strategic, with ongoing solid market price increases being achieved by CRH and their peers. Flutter is the #1 player in a huge U.S.A. sports betting market, with around 53% market share. U.S.A. sports betting is set to more than double to around $40 billion by 2030. We expect a near-term positive inflection in U.S.A. profitability as a result of years of heavy investment. We think the stock is cheap, trading on around 23x FY '25 earnings despite our expectation of circa 30% per annum EPS growth for the next few years. With the shift to a primary U.S.A. listing on May 31, we expect a greater focus from U.S.A. investors, especially as it gradually receives index inclusions. Tesco is the #1 operator in the U.K. supermarket space, with a stable circa 27% market share. They have a strong balance sheet, including a massive property portfolio, which compares very favorably to Australian supermarket peers, which tend to lease their sites. After some major strategic missteps over the past decade, the current management team is highly disciplined and shareholder-friendly. It is trading on only 12x P/E, with large buybacks underway and expected to continue over the medium term. Overall, we view the U.K. market as cheap and likely to rerate as interest rates normalize over time, and this will also benefit Tesco. BlueScope Steel has a number of strategic assets across the U.S.A., Australia, New Zealand and Asia. The recently announced Nippon Steel acquisition of U.S. Steel highlights the strong market appeal of the high return in U.S.A. steel sector, with BlueScope's North Star business among the best in the sector. BlueScope's disciplined management team can utilize the strong free cash flow currently being generated to pay solar dividends, continue to execute large buybacks and continue its downstream expansion in the U.S.A. BlueScope shares have recently been weaker on the back of falling U.S.A. steel spreads. However, we view this weakness as normal in a cyclical industry. It's likely to recover in time. Copper demand is likely to be stronger for longer despite a weak global economy, with continued emerging market structural growth, joined by recent strength from the global energy transition in areas like the electricity grid, EV adoption and data center growth. Meanwhile, supply continues to underperform for a variety of reasons, including social issues in key producer regions like Peru and also Panama, permitting delays on a global basis, CapEx escalation, grade declines and stronger investment discipline by many corporates. Gold is now the #1 investment choice for Chinese people and it's observable with busy gold stores in many shopping centers throughout China. Chinese and many other emerging market central banks have been consistent buyers of gold in recent years, but remain very underweight versus key Western counterparts like the Fed. With the huge U.S. A deficit continuing unabated, we believe gold's attraction of investors will continue to improve over the short, medium and long term. Gold equities have bounced lately, but still have massively lagged moves in the gold price over recent years. Teck. We expect a substantial share buyback following completion of the sale of a majority stake in the EVR met coal business to Glencore in the coming months. The remaining base metals business is positioned for growth, with multiple greenfield and brownfield investments underway. Teck is a highly strategic business, trading at a discount to pure-play copper peers. We believe it retains substantial strategic attraction. Westgold is a WA gold miner, producing around 250,000 ounces per annum, which is set to grow to over 400,000 ounces per annum following the completion of the Karora merger in the coming months. Management has successfully turned around the company over the last 2 years and is now focused on generating strong cash flows rather than growing for growth's sake as it once did. And spot gold pricing, the post-merger WGX is trading on roughly a 25% free cash flow yield in 2026 post the current projects ramping up. We expect the large discount to Aussie peers to close as management continues to deliver solid operating performance in the quarters ahead. Uranium. Chinese demand is growing so fast. It is expected to require the entire global current mine production rate by 2040. Much of the current supply comes from challenging jurisdictions such as Kazakhstan and Niger. SMR reactors, or small modular reactors, are gaining traction and likely to create a step change in demand in the 2030s. Uranium prices have risen around 4x over the last 5 years, and we expect substantial further price escalation in the coming years as utilities scramble to lock in long-term supply. Our key exposure in the uranium space is NexGen. NexGen owns the largest high-grade undeveloped uranium project globally. NXE is in the final stages of federal permitting in Canada after already receiving their provincial permit recently. NXE is set to produce around 30 million per annum of uranium, a low cash cost resulting in around CAD 3.4 billion EBITDA per annum at an assumed $100 uranium price. While NXE has spent the last decade focused on advancing the Rook I project, we believe they have highly prospective nearby tenements, which they are starting to explore and represent a huge free option not embedded in the stock today. This is a highly strategic asset that could easily be an acquisition target post final approvals being received, hopefully later in the current year. And that brings to a conclusion our webinar for today. Thank you for your continued support for L1 Capital and for the LSF. If you have any further queries, please be in touch with the L1 Capital Investor Services team.