Lion Corporation (4912) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

August 7, 2026

TSE JP Consumer Staples Household Products earnings 69 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#1

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. I'm Takemori, President of Lion Corporation. Thank you very much for your precious time despite your busy schedule. Before I begin, I would like to offer my deepest condolences to those who lost their lives in the recent 2026 Kumamoto earthquake and extend my heartfelt sympathies to everyone affected by the disaster. The Lion Group has already begun providing relief supplies and other assistance to people in the affected areas. We sincerely hope for the earliest possible recovery and reconstruction. With that, now allow me to begin my presentation. In the second quarter for FY 2026 December, despite increasing uncertainty in the business environment due to developments in the Middle East, both sales and profit exceeded the levels we had initially projected at the beginning of the year. Today, I would like to explain the factors behind this and how we intend to deliver growth in the second half and beyond. First, let me highlight the key points. In the first half of the year, we achieved the targets we had announced and confirmed the steady progress toward strengthening our earnings power, one of the key objectives of our second stage. In Japan, Oral Healthcare, our highest priority business, drove top line growth. At the same time, our efforts to develop high value-added products and our investments in strengthening our brands are also translating into tangible improvements in profitability overseas. In addition to the new consolidation effects from Merap Lion in Vietnam and PNB in Australia, both of which operate in highly profitable businesses, there is another key point I would like to emphasize here. Our major markets are now on a recovery trend. As a result, core operating income margin increased by more than 20% year-on-year. We believe this demonstrates that our initiatives to transform our business portfolio shift toward high value-added products and manage our overseas businesses with a greater focus on profitability are steadily delivering results. In the second half onwards, as you are well aware, various cost increases resulting from developments in the Middle East are becoming more pronounced than they were in the first half. We intend to offset these changes in the business environment through a combination of measures, and we remain committed to achieving the full year targets we announced at the beginning of the year. Today, I'd like to cover these 4 key points. First, let me review our consolidated results. In the second quarter, net sales increased 8.7% year-on-year, while core operating income increased 21.3%. EBITDA margin, one of our key KPIs reached 11.8%, an improvement of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, demonstrating steady progress in profitability as well. Next, allow me to explain the factors behind the JPY 2.7 billion year-on-year increase in core operating income. There are 2 key messages I would like you to take away from this slide. First, the primary driver of profit growth overall was the increase in gross profit resulting from our progress in shifting toward high value-added products. Second, underneath each factor, we have shown in the parenthesis the amount of change for the April through June period. As you can see, gross profit growth accelerated during April through June. In other words, our momentum is improving. At the same time, we incurred a JPY 1 billion negative impact from the higher raw material costs in the first half due to the developments in the Middle East, but were able to offset this impact. In terms of competitive standing, we are now continuing our investment in areas where we should go for further growth, particularly Oral Healthcare in Japan and our overseas businesses. At the same time, these investments are generating solid returns in the form of higher gross profit. You will also notice that the JPY 9.7 billion positive impact from higher sales on the far left and the JPY 5.3 billion increase in other expenses on the far right are larger than in a typical year. Next, let me turn to performance by segment. Both Consumer Products and Overseas businesses delivered higher sales and profit. Please look at the figures highlighted in red. In Consumer Products, our focus on developing high value-added products drove sales growth of 1.6%. In addition, measures to reform our earnings structure contributed to a 0.4 percentage point improvement in the profit margin. Overseas business, sales and profit both increased significantly, reflecting not only the impact of newly consolidated businesses, but also recovery in our existing markets and our continued focus on profitability-oriented management. Next, allow me to break down the Consumer Product business. In Oral Healthcare, our core toothpaste and toothbrush brands continued to grow. In addition, the premium priced SYSTEMA toothpaste line, which we renewed in April, has performed strongly. As a result, Oral Healthcare maintained a strong growth of 9.6%. In Beauty Care, body soap, which struggled during the earlier part of the year are now benefiting from the effects of product renewals centered on high value-added offerings. Home Care, although the top line sales were below the previous year, we have placed a greater emphasis on profitability while working to enhance the brand value. For categories such as fabric softeners, which have been affected by intensified competition, we are planning product initiatives in the second half. I will discuss this in greater detail later. While conditions vary by category, overall, we are able to grow a solid 2.9%, excluding the impact of the transfer of the REED brand. Next, allow me to turn to Overseas businesses. In the Southeast and South Asia and Oceania, performance was driven not only by the impact of newly consolidated businesses, but also by strong results in Malaysia, which contributed significantly to both sales and profit. In Northeast Asia, China has returned to a recovery trend, combined with a strong performance in South Korea. This resulted in underlying growth in both sales and profit. This slide shows the performance of our 4 major overseas markets. Sales momentum has improved in all 4 countries. I would particularly like to look at the underlying sales trends for January through March and April through June shown in the notes for each country. In Thailand, structural challenges remain, including lower exports and weak domestic consumption. However, as part of our efforts to transform the business structure, we have been strengthening initiatives in Oral Healthcare. These efforts are beginning to produce results and the overall rate of sales decline in Thailand narrowed substantially during the April through June period. In Malaysia, in addition to strong top-line performance, our pricing strategy for laundry detergents has led to a significant improvement in profitability. As we explained during the first quarter, we have been working to normalize distribution inventories in China. That process has now been completed. Since April, China has returned to sales growth, improving from 21.6% decline in January through March to 14% growth in April through June. We are therefore beginning to see a clear double-digit recovery trend. South Korea also delivered sales growth, led primarily by our highly profitable businesses. Against this backdrop, let me now discuss our full year consolidated earnings forecast. Let me start with the conclusion. We will not change the earnings forecast announced at the beginning of the year. We remain firmly committed to achieving it. In the second half, we expect the business environment to become even more challenging than in the first half, primarily due to developments in the Middle East. However, based on the solid progress we achieved during the first half and the benefits we expect from our key initiatives, I believe as President that we are fully capable of offsetting these headwinds. At the same time, we will continue making steady progress towards strengthening our earnings power as set out in the second stage strategy. Our vision to maintain the forecast should not be viewed as simply leaving our guidance unchanged. It reflects our determination to achieve the targets we originally set. It shows our strong will, and this is not simply a matter of determination. As President, I believe we have now built sufficient underlying strength and resilience in order to deliver these targets. In regard to the shareholder returns, we will also continue to aim for our 11th consecutive year of dividend increase. This is one of the key slides regarding our responses to developments in the Middle East. We have revised our assumptions regarding the factors affecting core operating income, including the impact of raw material price increases that are expected to become more significant going forward and the measures we intend to take to counter them. The table compares our initial assumption on the left and the overall total remains unchanged. The largest change relates to raw materials prices, we have revised the expected impact from negative JPY 1 billion initially to negative JPY 7 billion, representing additional negative impact of JPY 6 billion. Of this amount, JPY 1 billion has already materialized in the first half, with the remaining negative JPY 5 billion expected to take place in the second half. To counter this, we intend to build additional gross profit through the further price increases and cost reductions while also improving the efficiency of SG&A expenses, including competitive spending. Our revised assumptions also incorporate the impact of foreign exchange movements. What I have just described will by no means be easy. However, it is precisely because of the progress we have made in reforming our earnings structure that Lion has become a company capable of responding flexibly and swiftly to changes in the external environment. Next, I would like to provide some more details on the measures we will implement in the second half in order to counter the specific challenges. As I mentioned earlier, we expect the impact of higher raw materials prices in the second half to be approximately JPY 5 billion. Taking procurement lead time and other factors into account, we expect the impact on the results to peak in the third quarter as illustrated in the chart on the right. We will address this from both the gross profit and SG&A sides. First, with regard to gross profit, we will implement appropriate price pass-through measures in Japan and overseas, while simultaneously pursuing a number of other initiatives, including the development of high value-added products and improvements in the product mix. In Japan, we plan to revise prices across a broad range of products for shipments from October onward. Overseas, we are also implementing price increases progressively, primarily in categories where we have strong market position. In addition, through further cost reduction, we aim to offset approximately 80% of this JPY 5 billion impact through improvements in gross profit. Naturally, we will proceed carefully while closely monitoring market conditions and the competitive environment. At the same time, we believe that achieving appropriate pricing that reflects the value of our brands will not only support earnings this year, but also to help strengthen our earnings foundation for next year and beyond. We'd like to actually further expand on the actual efforts in order to actually improve our profit margin. So we'd like to actually allocate our resources in a better way. I would like to emphasize that sustainable growth simply cannot be achieved through the cost reduction alone. This is the most fundamental point I would like to emphasize. We will continue making investments that will generate further earnings while rigorously improving efficiency where appropriate. By maintaining the right balance between the investment and efficiency, we intend to offset the impact of developments in the Middle East. From here, I will talk about some key measures based on the policy we announced at the beginning of the year. First, let me review our first half results. We are steadily advancing the transformation into a highly profitable business portfolio. For our top priority Oral Healthcare, we have achieved group-wide growth of over 10%. Overseas, we are seeing a continued shift toward the personal care area. In addition, the consolidation of Vietnam and Australian business has made a major contribution to improving our gross margin and core operating income ratio. We see these results as reflecting the effects of the management process transformation, moving to a business unit system that integrates the value chain along with a greater delegation of authority, which has increased the speed of decision-making and execution. We hope to carry this momentum into the second half and translate it firmly into execution. Let me go into a bit more detail on the status of each business. First, Oral Healthcare in Japan. The biggest achievement of the first half was outgrowing the market in the high-end toothpaste segment priced above JPY 1,000, which continues to grow. Please look at the graph on the left. The yellow line represents the overall high-end segment priced over JPY 1,000. This segment itself continues to grow strongly, but the green line, our own high-end products, has outpaced it, showing the major growth of 131% year-on-year in the first half. The high-end line of SYSTEMA launched in April is also performing well, up roughly 1.4x year-on-year for April to June. In the second half, as shown on the right, we will substantially upgrade the regular line of the Dent Health brand priced around JPY 1,500. At the same time, we will continue to build up our highest-price line launched in the second half of the last year. Periodontal disease prevention is a category we naturally expect to keep expanding. As a category leader, we will keep strengthening various actions to broaden our brand base and drive growth in the high-end segment. Through this, we aim to further expand the group's sales and profit. Overseas, in Oral Healthcare, rather than applying uniform measures, we are, of course, pursuing strategies and tactics tailored to the characteristics of each country and region. On the left, in China, we are launching products in the growing high-end segment and strengthening our focus on priority channels that continue to grow. In the middle, Thailand, even though overall domestic consumption remains weak, the toothpaste market continues to grow steadily. We are expanding our customer base by revamping our brand image and having reexamined the target for each brand, we are expanding distribution in our stronghold areas. On the right, in Malaysia, unit prices, including the general-purpose price range continued to rise. Amid this, we added value in mainstay brands. Across Asia as a whole, the oral health care market is growing and unit prices, in particular, continue to rise. We'll keep strengthening our efforts to continue outpacing market growth. From the next page, let me give a supplementary explanation on China and Thailand. First, China. In Q1, sales declined due to optimization of distribution inventory. But in Q2, the launch of new highest-priced products under our mainstay brand and cross-brand marketing initiatives resulted in a double-digit recovery of plus 15% in sales, and we were also able to improve profitability. Building on this momentum in the second half, we aim to raise the presence in high value-added products, and we will further strengthen momentum by strengthening our engagement with emerging e-commerce platforms that performed well in the first half and doubling the number of key managed retailers carrying our products compared with the end of the previous fiscal year. While the macro environment remains challenging, we'll keep working to build mid- to long-term brand value so that we can sustain profitable growth. In Thailand, there are structural macro environment challenges. That said, the effects of initiatives we have pursued since last year, such as SALZ rebranding and expansion of SYSTEMA distribution, are starting to show up in sales. Sales growth has increased from plus 4% in January to March to plus 10% for April to June. SYSTEMA sales shown in the graph at the bottom left are also rising month by month. As with China, we will build on the first half results and in the second half, further advance key measures that we need to promote expanding brand penetration among young customers and expanding distribution. Next challenge for growth, the Beauty Care and Pharmaceutical Products business. In Vietnam and Australia, initiatives to realize post-consolidation synergies are taking concrete shape in each case. In Vietnam, in addition to stable growth in the pharmaceuticals business, we are also expanding our Personal Care business by leveraging various capabilities across the group's sales network. The Sukin business in Australia is progressing steadily. Going forward, we focus on expansion into Asia, including Japan. The recently announced establishment of Sukin Japan marks the first step in this effort. Leveraging our strong brand value, we push forward by developing their business while firmly securing profitability. Next, Home Care. In Japan, we are steadily executing product initiatives in line with our business portfolio strategy. We are working to build up high value-added products. As customer needs diversify, rather than competing on price and capital strength for the mass market, we continue product initiatives that create distinctive value using test marketing to create new needs and propose new habits that meet them. As shown on the left, the NANOX washing tub antimold ball launched through test marketing in the first half showed approximately 3x of the planned sales. In the second half, we will also strengthen our lineup of distinctive value fabric softeners and dishwasher detergent. By continuing these initiatives, we aim to improve profitability even with increased raw material cost. Finally, let me talk about the progress on the second stage growth strategies. Over the medium to long term, we aim to create value continuously, focusing on health care needs, mainly in Oral Healthcare. To achieve this, as I have discussed, second stage has clearly set strengthening profitability as a core theme. What matters here is not chasing short-term results alone, but shifting our focus towards growth accompanied by profitability and capital efficiency. Situations like this may occur again. But we are working to transform into a company that can generate profit even as the environment changes in various ways. And I feel real traction in our business portfolio transformation. First, on the left, accelerating growth in Oral Healthcare. In Japan, we are achieving high growth accompanied by profitability. In Thailand and Malaysia, through a review of management resource allocation, we are rebuilding our business foundation in markets with substantial room for growth. This is progressing well. As mentioned earlier, results delivered. In China, on the other hand, external environmental changes have caused a divergence from our original plan. I see this not as a temporary issue, but as a phase where we need to reallocate management resources towards areas where we can win. Now and going forward, we will sharpen our strategy and tactics further by clearly identifying the subcategories where our strengths can be leveraged in each country and region, for example, periodontal disease and aesthetics. At the same time, by creating a virtuous cycle between self-care products and services, we will expand profit opportunities beyond simply selling products. Next on the right, overseas growth. Overseas, we are advancing initiatives to create synergies. In major countries, due to geopolitical effects, we have seen some challenges on the top line relative to our original plan. But as I mentioned earlier, we are currently on a recovery momentum. In addition, I'm personally glad to feel that we are able to manage swiftly and flexibly with an emphasis on profitability. We continue to promote proactively our shift toward profitability-focused growth and optimization of our regional portfolio. Also starting this year, we have newly established a department to explore new export destinations. By pursuing new market development in countries where we have not entered, we expand future growth options while accelerating our overseas growth initiatives. To summarize today's content, the first half was a period in which growth in our high-profit business centered on Oral Healthcare drove steady progress in transforming our profit structure. Overseas, in particular, the momentum of sales growth has recovered. For the second half, we continue to expand in an uncertain environment, including the situation in the Middle East. That said, we do not see this as a phase of defense. Rather, we see it as an opportunity to accelerate value-added growth, improve profitability in our overseas businesses and develop new growth businesses, building a profit base that is resilient to external conditions. As one group, we will further strengthen structural reform aimed to achieve the target announced at the start of the year and continue moving forward while sharpening our focus toward the final year of the second stage. We continue to meet your expectation by sustainably building a profitable growth. We appreciate your continued understanding. That concludes my presentation. Thank you very much for your attention.

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#2

We'll now move on to the Q&A session.

Katsuro Hirozumi

analyst
#3

This is Hirozumi from Daiwa Securities. Can you hear me?

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#4

Mr. Hirozumi, yes, we can hear you.

Katsuro Hirozumi

analyst
#5

I'd like to revisit Page 14, which you described as a key slide and better understand how the numbers are structured. I think this is a very interesting table. Compared with your initial assumptions, the negative impact from the raw material cost has increased by JPY 6 billion. However, you are essentially saying that you will fully offset that through the 2 items in the top, quantitative effects and product mix as well as a shift in high value-added products and upward price revision. At the same time, you are also increasing SG&A expenses. Actually, the number there is JPY 7 billion higher than your initial assumption. Could you talk about your level of confidence in achieving these numbers? What are the specifics you have in mind?

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#6

Thank you for your question. This table shows our full year outlook. So if it's all right with you, Mr. Hirozumi, I'd like to explain it in the context of what we expect in the second half. First, regarding the JPY 5 billion negative impact in the second half, roughly speaking, we expect about JPY 3 billion in the third quarter and JPY 2 billion in the fourth quarter. So the question is how we could offset the JPY 5 billion. Let me explain our thinking. We intend to offset approximately 80% or roughly JPY 4 billion through the gross profit improvement. Of this, we expect roughly JPY 1 billion from the shift towards high value-added products and cost reductions, including overseas. We then expect about JPY 3 billion from the domestic price increase that we have announced. And also the -- and as you pointed out, Mr. Hirozumi, this is not just about this year. In particular, the JPY 3 billion benefit from the price increases will carry over in full into the first half of next year. As for the shift toward high value-added products, as we have discussed previously, we are shifting toward businesses and products that generate higher margins. Therefore, the JPY 3 billion from the price pass-through and the JPY 1 billion from high value-added products should continue to contribute in the first half of next year and beyond.

Katsuro Hirozumi

analyst
#7

That gives me greater confidence in our outlook. You've just given us a fairly detailed buildup of the numbers, JPY 4 billion and JPY 1 billion, for example. Since these are based on the specific initiatives, would it be fair for me to say that you have high confidence?

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#8

Of course, we do not assume that every single initiative will deliver 100% of the expected benefits exactly as planned. We are living in the business world. But again, I happen to have strong confidence.

Katsuro Hirozumi

analyst
#9

One last question. Is the confidence partly based on the fact that you have already demonstrated your ability to execute these programs?

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#10

Actually, starting from October, we are going to start working on actually the price pass-through. The most important point is whether the price changes actually materialize at the retail level. Ultimately, this comes down to execution across the distribution channel. As you are well aware, Mr. Hirozumi, October is generally when the retailers revise shelf prices. We, therefore, timed our price increases to coincide with those changes in October. It is not simply a matter of announcing a price increase. What matters is ensuring that retail prices actually change at the point of sales and that the plan is reliably realized. With the October implementation approaching, we have been coordinating with a range of measures and with many people concerned.

Katsuro Hirozumi

analyst
#11

Understood. I look forward to seeing these measures to deliver the expected results.

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#12

Next, I would like to have a question from Mitsuko Miyasako.

Mitsuko Miyasako

analyst
#13

This is Miyasako from Mizuho Securities.

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#14

Yes, I'm hearing your voice.

Mitsuko Miyasako

analyst
#15

I would like to ask about the strong performance of the domestic oral care business. Looking just at the 3 months of the second quarter, how much did toothbrushes and toothpaste and the dental clinics channel grow? Also, domestic oral care achieved quite strong growth in the first half. I believe you have new products planned for the second half as well. Although I don't think you have disclosed an overall growth forecast for the second half, what level of growth are you expecting? And finally, would you please share your thoughts? Of course, you are able to enjoy good growth in oral care. And what's going to happen moving into the second half from the viewpoint of growth factors?

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#16

Could you share the Page 18? Yes. We have a number of categories, including toothpaste and toothbrushes, mouthwash and dental floss. Broadly speaking, the growth across these categories has been around 9.5% level as shown here. As for Lion Dental Products, our B2B business, serving dental professionals, it recorded roughly double-digit growth in the first half. Overall, we saw well-balanced growth across the various categories during the first half. Turning to the second half. There are a couple of factors we need to take into account. First, we expect some decline in the volume associated with the price increases that will take effect from October. In addition, the JPY 2,000 Dent Health product shown on the right-hand side of this page will begin to lap its launch from the prior year. So we are not assuming that the 9% or so growth rate will simply continue unchanged. This is one of the important points. And also as for the core operating income margin, progress has been in line with or better than our plan. We therefore see the core operating income margin as having improved compared with the previous year.

Mitsuko Miyasako

analyst
#17

I see. I believe the sales were ahead of the plan. Am I correct understanding that the core operating income was broadly in line with the plan?

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#18

I'll ask Takeo, who is responsible for the finance accounting, to provide some additional detail on the figures.

Akihiko Takeo

executive
#19

Thank you. This is Takeo. Thank you for your question, Ms. Miyasako. Regarding the core operating income margin for Oral Care, strong sales of high value-added products throughout the first half resulted in a significant year-on-year improvement. Core operating income for the consumer products business also increased year-on-year. And I think it will be fair to understand that increase in the absolute amount of the core operating income from Oral Care was even stronger than that of the Consumer Products business.

Mitsuko Miyasako

analyst
#20

I believe your full year growth assumption for Oral Care this year is around 4% to 5%. Given the performance so far, it is fair to assume that you now expect to comfortably exceed that level? And looking ahead to next year, given the significant acceleration you have achieved this year, should we expect growth next year to be higher?

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#21

Yes, we have gained considerable momentum in the first half. So as present, I would like to see us outperform the full year growth assumption. Looking ahead to next year, we are also laying the groundwork for the range of high value-added products and initiatives. Of course, we will need to take changes in the market environment and other factors into consideration. Did I answer your question?

Mitsuko Miyasako

analyst
#22

Indeed.

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#23

Thank you very much. Next, I will take a question from Mr. Kuwahara.

クワハラ

analyst
#24

This is Kuwahara from JPMorgan Securities. Can you hear me?

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#25

Yes, no problem.

クワハラ

analyst
#26

I would also like to come back to Page 14 and following up on Mr. Hirozumi's earlier question to confirm your strategy. If I calculate the figures for the second half alone, the contribution from quantitative effects and the product mix appears to be approximately negative JPY 200 million. Is that mainly the volume impact from the price increases you mentioned earlier? Or does it also include an impact from the divestiture of this Specialty Chemicals business? Could you walk us through the components? My second question is about the contribution from high value-added products and upward price revision, JPY 1 billion, and actually, JPY 4 billion gross profit offset you mentioned earlier are reflected. Regarding JPY 3 billion contribution from domestic price increase, am I correct in assuming that you expect to realize the full JPY 3 billion through October, November and December? If that's the case, you need to have the contribution of as much as JPY 1 billion. Is this coming from the Oral Care with heavier weight or the Home Care, maybe you would like to actually improve in operation performance. So non-oral care will enable you to actually go for JPY 1 billion. Is this the right interpretation? I wonder if you could help me in this regard.

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#27

I believe there are 2 questions. First, on volume impact. Our revised full year estimate is JPY 9.5 billion. As I mentioned earlier, the first half was JPY 9.7 billion. So as you correctly pointed out, that implies a negative JPY 0.2 billion in the second half. As for the components of that negative JPY 0.2 billion, there are positive contributions from Australia and the foreign exchange, among other factors. On the other hand, we have negative gross profit impact from the divestiture of the chemicals business and from REED. We are also factoring in some volume decline resulting from the price increases. So this is the response to your first question. In regard to the question on the high value-added products and upward price revision, we expect JPY 3 billion from the price increase to break down roughly into JPY 0.5 billion in the third quarter and JPY 2.5 billion in the fourth quarter for a total of JPY 3 billion. As you pointed out, we are also expecting a little over JPY 1 billion of additional profit contribution from high value-added products. Oral Healthcare will be the main driver, but it will not the only one. We also expect contributions from the new fabric softener line we can expect to have a benefit.

クワハラ

analyst
#28

In regard to this JPY 1 billion, again, could you expand on that in the domestic market and overseas market? I think in the overseas market, you are increasing the personal health care. So I wonder if you could expand on the major drivers behind it. Well you believe that as far as this year is concerned, it is going to be the Japanese market as the major driving factor.

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#29

Yes. Actually, we have included contribution coming from the overseas. So the domestic -- actually, in the domestic business, we will actually go for the higher value realizations out of the high value-added products. Thank you. Next, we'll take a question from Mr. Miyazaki.

Takashi Miyazaki

analyst
#30

This is Miyazaki from Goldman Sachs.

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#31

Yes, I'm hearing your voice.

Takashi Miyazaki

analyst
#32

I also have a question related to Page 14, specifically regarding the price increases. First, just to confirm the numbers, you mentioned that the fourth quarter contribution from the price increases will be JPY 2.5 billion. On a simple annualized basis, it would add up to approximately JPY 10 billion. This is what you have announced the other day. You, of course, have good selling SKUs, and I believe you keep an eye on other companies' SKUs. Could you explain again the background to the price increase announced in July, the strategy behind them and how we should think about the impact heading into next fiscal year? So I appreciate if you could actually go through these points, including the strategy, please.

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#33

Certainly. As we explained in our press release, the range of the price increases varies somewhat by category. The degree of cost pressure from rising raw materials and prices naturally differs by category. For example, the cost headwind is a relatively significant in detergents, whereas it is comparatively smaller in oral care. We have determined that the magnitude of the price increase is based primarily on 3 factors: the negative impact of raw materials cost, our competitive position in each market and how receptive each category is to price increases. So of course, we need to keep an eye on the possible impact on the volume. So they are the important ingredients. And as you mentioned, actually, JPY 2.5 billion in the fourth quarter, again, a simple calculation x4 is going to be JPY 10 billion. Allow me to explain in regard to the next year. Actually, we have experienced actually JPY 5 billion increase in the raw materials and the price, and this impact is going to continue and how we can actually deal with this JPY 5 billion. Actually, JPY 2.5 billion on the quarterly basis. So 2 quarters make it JPY 5 billion. So we need to be able to address this JPY 5 billion while keeping an eye on the sustainable business growth moving forward. Did I answer your question?

Takashi Miyazaki

analyst
#34

If that is the case, it looks as though there could potentially be some upside next year, perhaps another JPY 2.5 billion. Although I appreciate there will be various other factors, should we interpret the fact that you have adopted this pricing strategy and you are now in a position to be able to implement it given you have the visibility of exceeding JPY 40 billion in business profit next year? I wonder if you could expand on those aspects. Are you optimistic?

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#35

I will say that at present, I'm not that optimistic. If I may, the next 1.5 years will be an important final year of the second stage of our plan. So I would like to take this opportunity to briefly explain as for these matters. Please -- taking a broader perspective as present, I am managing the company with a very strong focus on our earnings targets for 2027 and ultimately for 2030, the final year of our medium-term plan. Achieving those targets is important evidence that Lion is capable of delivering sustainable growth. I may be repeating the same point. The impact from the Middle East is going to be JPY 5 billion moving into the full year. With that impact carrying over in full into the first half of next year. Against that backdrop, we are targeting an increase in the core operating income from JPY 35 billion this year to JPY 40 billion next year, a gap of JPY 5 billion. Combined with the JPY 5 billion cost headwind I just mentioned, we need to be able to work on the following initiatives. I'm going to explain. The first, the price increases, the JPY 2.5 billion quarterly benefit that begins to materialize in the fourth quarter of this year and should generate approximately JPY 5 billion of profit growth. Then second, we will improve our product mix through the high value-added products while also increasing the volumes. We are building in a range of assumptions for both Japan and overseas, JPY 4 billion to JPY 5 billion of improvement from a more profitable product mix. That should enable us to bridge the JPY 5 billion gap. However, it's easier said than done. So we need to be able to tighten our management and mindset.

Takashi Miyazaki

analyst
#36

So we'd like to work on JPY 5 billion actually, we'd like to work on another JPY 5 billion, a total of JPY 10 billion?

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#37

Yes, at present, we need to be able to manage these activities as surely as possible.

Takashi Miyazaki

analyst
#38

Sorry to go into some of the details, but I'm still slightly confused about the price increase. If you have a JPY 2.5 billion benefit in the fourth quarter of this year and then JPY 5 billion of benefit in the first half of next year, it seems as though there should be another JPY 2.5 billion not covered.

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#39

No, that is not the case. We'll have JPY 2.5 billion in the fourth quarter, this year second half. Running through 3 quarters to lap, we will not have JPY 2.5 billion remaining. You may be thinking of the JPY 2.5 billion as related to the July to September third quarter, but we will, in fact, realize some of the offset in the third quarter. In addition, from a margin perspective, we need to maintain some additional buffer rather than assuming that every benefit will follow exactly as I have explained. Next, we would like to have a question from Mr. Yamanaka.

山中 志真

analyst
#40

This is Yamanaka speaking. I'd like to come back to the impact of the price increases and confirm your level of confidence in actually realizing the plan. Even if you pass through the increase in the cost to prices, I think it is difficult to know exactly how demand would respond until the new prices are actually implemented. In the second half, particularly, you will also have a number of the product initiatives in areas such as fabric care. Other companies have already begun raising prices since July. So I assume you have been monitoring the subsequent volume trends. I wonder if you could share your insights in this area.

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#41

Thank you for your question, Yamanaka-san. Yes, I'm hearing your voice. Yes. Actually, I'm gaining more stronger confidence. As I have mentioned, we do expect some volume decline as a result of the price increases, and we are factoring the resulting gross profit impact into our assumptions. Actually, we believe that impact is going to be 3% to 10% in detergents and around 6% to 8% in oral care. The figures I discussed earlier have been constructed after taking those expected volumes declines into account. As I mentioned earlier, the key to successfully implementing the price increases is whether retail shelf prices actually change. That is precisely why we strategically chose October as the timing for the price increases. Let me emphasize this point again. October is a time when many retailers in Japan reset their in-store merchandising. We chose October specifically so that price changes would coincide with that timing. We have been working very closely with the wholesalers, distributors and retailers in preparation for the October implementation. If I did not believe we had an operational capability to execute this successfully, I will not be telling you that I am confident. We have worked through the details very carefully in preparation for October with many stakeholders concerned.

山中 志真

analyst
#42

From a consumer's perspective, I sometimes get the impression that the detergent section in stores is being moved around, becoming somewhat smaller or that the shelves for some major products are looking a little less full than they used to. You may say that, well, the consumers are moving into the e-commerce. However, I wonder how you feel about the observation I'm making here. There could be certain risk factors.

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#43

I don't think that you need to be overly concerned about that. We do not expect any major drastic reduction in retail shelf space. Of course, some consumers will shift their purchase to e-commerce. But my sense is that this will not represent a particularly large proportion of customers. We believe that the majority will continue to make their purchases in physical stores. So actually, of course, we would like to actually share our recommended ideas to the retailers. But again, actual implementation is going to be those retailers and distributors. But I don't believe that I am receiving a negative response from those people. Next, I would like to receive a question from Ms. Kawamoto.

Hisae Kawamoto

analyst
#44

This is Kawamoto from Jefferies Securities. I also would like to ask about Page 14. But before that, I'd like to confirm the first half change factors. Shall we start on Page 14? Before that, I'd like to turn to the results. Quantitative effects in small orange print, it describes the newly consolidated subsidiaries. How much of that came from Vietnam? And based on that, in the second half, the contribution of Vietnam in the previous year will run the floors. I also recall that the new product, Dent Health, was added last year. So with those comparison base changes, you expect a further increase in gross profit. So first, for the orange figure in the first half actual results, could you tell us how much of it was the Vietnam portion?

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#45

Understood. Since this concerns figures, so let me have Takeo respond.

Akihiko Takeo

executive
#46

This is Takeo. Kawamoto-san, thank you very much for your question. I understand you're asking how much of this plus JPY 9.7 billion quantitative effects and mix change. On the far left, the first half profit change factors is attributable to Vietnam. Roughly half of that is the increase in gross profit from the newly consolidated Vietnam and Australian subsidiaries. In addition, that quantitative effects and product mix and others also includes the plus JPY 3.6 billion foreign exchange impact shown in the arrow. So please note that as well.

Hisae Kawamoto

analyst
#47

Yes. Based on that on Page 14, I have the same question as others, I think, which is about the feasibility of the price increases. Looking back in 2023 and '24, the company achieved roughly JPY 3 billion to JPY 4 billion in annual price increase benefit. And this year, you expect to achieve additional JPY 3 billion from October, which looks like a fairly high number. Could you give us a bit more detail? I'm looking at the release now on the Oral Healthcare breakdown. Specifically, where do you plan to increase prices by item and by how much? And whether there are any concrete examples? If you give us some colors quantitatively, I think that will make it more credible.

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#48

Thank you. That's a detailed point and an important one. Let me have Fukuda respond.

Kengo Fukuda

executive
#49

Kawamoto-san, this is Fukuda. Thank you. On your question, the price increases we have achieved in past years have mainly been effective in-store price increase achieved by revising promotional cost, increasing the ratio of regular priced sales and reducing the share of special sales. This time, additional price increase, however, involves raising shipment prices across an entire category all at once with external announcement and actual raising shipment prices. Because of this, as other people also asked, there is a higher risk than before that competitive dynamics could reduce volume. But we believe that if we prepare properly and execute carefully, the benefit of the price increases will materialize with certainty.

Hisae Kawamoto

analyst
#50

I see. Then on changes in competition-related expenses, is there anything in particular we should be concerned about this?

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#51

On competitive-related expenses and SG&A costs, we do expect an increase, though we have reduced the magnitude of increase from the initial plan due to the impact from the Middle East situation. For the increase in competitive-related and other expenses, part of the increase reflects a foreign exchange impact, which is why the negative profit reduction effect appear larger here. So please understand this in this context. Thank you very much. Next, Mr. Ohana, over to you.

Yuji Ohana

analyst
#52

This is Ohana from Nomura Securities. I'd like to ask about your thinking on the first half progress in the next year. It seems that from around March, you already knew raw material costs would be rising. And the first half core operating income was above the company's plan. Given the raw material cost increase impact expected in the second half, do you feel the first half result was good enough? Or did you expect higher number to have some buffer? I'd like to understand your thinking there. Also, the increase in core operating income from the newly consolidated subsidiaries is approximately JPY 1.2 billion or JPY 1.3 billion, I guess. If possible, could you break that down between Merap Lion and PNB? My understanding was that PNB wasn't expected to contribute much to the profit this fiscal year. Has that view changed? And earlier, there was a discussion about the next year's roughly JPY 10 billion profit increase. I had the impression PNB would contribute meaningfully next year, and that with a price increase effect and so on, that number looked achievable. Is my observation correct? Sorry for asking several things at once.

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#53

I believe there were 3 questions. First, looking at the slide now, with the second half in mind, the first half could have gone a bit further and how I feel about that as present? That's the first question. Second, how much PNB or Australia and Vietnam is contributing to profit this year? Takeo will answer that. And third, since PNB Australian impact will carry into next year, whether that makes next year's target more achievable. How do you view that? Let me have Takeo answer the figures first, and I'll give an overall summary afterwards. On the first question, whether the first half could have been better, as I mentioned earlier, considering the situation in China in the first quarter and the tough fundamentals in Thailand, my assessment is that we executed fully. As shown here, our progress on the sales and core operating income compares well against the past 4 years. For example, our sales progress rate this time is 50.4% versus 48% for the last 4 years and our core operating income progress 43% versus 37% for the past 4 years. This reflects very strong effect, and I feel confident about it. I don't feel at all that we should have pushed for. I'm satisfied with that. And combined with the change in the quality of our earnings I mentioned earlier, we are becoming a company that can generate profit regardless of circumstances. So this is the answer to your first question. On the second, share of PNB Australia's impact this year and their impact on the next year, let me have Takeo answer for the figures first.

Akihiko Takeo

executive
#54

This is Takeo. Ohana-san, thank you for your question. On the impact through the 6 months to June, you mentioned the figure you have estimated yourself. In terms of the actual profit and loss related to Vietnam and Australia this year, while the 2 companies' results are positive, there is also a onetime acquisition-related expense recorded. Including that, the contribution to first half January to June core operating income is fairly limited compared with the figure you mentioned. Specifically, it is less than JPY 1 billion. I'll refrain from breaking that down between Australia and Vietnam, but the combined figure for the 2 companies for the first half is as I have just described. Looking ahead to next year, the onetime acquisition-related expense is, of course, only for this year. So we would expect an increase from the 2 companies' profit contribution next year with the absence of onetime expenses of this year. That said, as Takemori mentioned before, our current plan for the next year does not yet reflect that to that extent. And at the same time, there is also the factor that 2 chemical product subsidiaries will be deconsolidated. So we assume those 2 effects broadly offset each other. That's about the figure.

Yuji Ohana

analyst
#55

Was the onetime cost for Australia already incurred or will it come in the second half?

Akihiko Takeo

executive
#56

The onetime cost has already been incurred through the second quarter.

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#57

Finally, let me sum up the strategic point as the President. To repeat what I have said before, next year is not just another year. It is the final year of the second stage, whether we set out to strengthen our profitability. I see it as a year in which everyone will be watching us to see whether that quality has improved. And I am confident with that. And on the substance growth in Oral Healthcare and Overseas business growth with margins, they may vary by business, but whether we can achieve group-wide strengthening of profitability is something I feel confident about. I'd be grateful if you could judge for yourself whether we have succeed. Thank you for the question. We are running short of time, but we'd like to take questions from 2 more people who have raised their hands for a while. Ms. Miyake, over to you.

Haruka Miyake

analyst
#58

This is Miyake from Morgan Stanley. I also would like to ask a bit about overseas. I also would like to ask about the profit. I believe Northeast Asia's margin improved in Q1 and Q2 and progressing well. But the Southeast and South Asia looks roughly flat year-on-year in Q2, which doesn't seem to align with the improvement in sales. Could you explain what affected this? I think there is a potential for the margin to improve in the second half. Is that observation correct? I'd like to have your thoughts on this.

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#59

Thank you. Let me switch to another slide. In my early explanation, I mentioned that sales momentum overseas recovered, improving from January to March to April to June. Let me walk you through some of the underlying figures verbally since not all of them are on the slide. On the real sales growth in the middle, excluding foreign exchange effect, Southeast and South Asia grew 11.9% in April to June. In January to March, it was 7.9%. So Southeast and South Asia, Oceania improved overall from 7.9% to 11.9% growth. For Northeast Asia, growth was 11.5% in April to June. In January to March, due to partly reduced production in China, it was minus 7.4%. So Northeast Asia recovered from minus 7% in January to March to double-digit growth. In total, the growth was 2% in January to March and 16.1% in April to June. So momentum has clearly increased by region and on a growth basis, which is the big positive. Now the key question is whether core operating income is following that. Let me touch on that. Please look at the right-hand column in parenthesis. The overall core operating income ratio rose by 1.1 percentage point in April to June. In January to March, it was up 2.0 percentage points. So numbers, it looks like it's decelerating, but this reflects a deliberate forward-looking bet. To be specific, for Southeast and South Asia, Oceania, the core operating income ratio was down 0.1 points in April to June versus up 1.9 points in January to March. That may look like a decline, but it reflects the upfront investment in Oral Healthcare in Thailand. In the first quarter, we deliberately kept Thailand's core operating income ratio flat. So please understand this as a healthy state. Next, Northeast Asia core operating income ratio was up 2.9 points in April to June versus up 0.4 points in January to March. This reflects China's contribution and shows a healthy improvement in core operating income ratio. So looking at both Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia and country by country, we are deliberately growing where we have decided to grow and bet with the second half and the next year in mind. As a result, as a President, I see the way we are growing profit and the way we are growing the top line as progressing in a healthy way. That was a long answer.

Haruka Miyake

analyst
#60

To achieve strategic expense recovery and improve margins, the top line should also need to improve accordingly. Is it fair to expect the effect to show from the second half and for margin improvement to be expected for the full year in Southeast and South Asia as well?

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#61

Of course, there are various factors around foreign exchanges and raw materials. But yes, that is what we are aiming for, in particular, regarding the Oral Healthcare in Thailand, even though we made upfront investment, Thailand's first half January to June core operating income ratio was unchanged from the previous year. We are investing firmly without damaging profitability. As a result, as I mentioned, Thailand's Oral Healthcare top line has grown significantly. We see this as evidence that the upfront investment is paying off. So I don't see this as limited to the second half alone. I believe it will carry through into the next year '27. Does that answer your question?

Haruka Miyake

analyst
#62

Yes. It was very clear.

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#63

Thank you. We will take the final question. Mr. Ogaki, thank you very much for waiting. Over to you.

Tokuchika Ogaki

analyst
#64

This is Ogaki from Okasan Securities. I'd like to go back to the change factors on Page 14 again. First, on the impact of raw material cost. Is JPY 6 billion for the second half essentially a fixed confirmed number? Or could it still move significantly from there? And what is the assumed Dubai crude oil price behind that figure? Also, I think that you said the price increases were mainly in Japan. For the impact of the Middle East situation overseas, how do you plan to recover that?

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#65

There will naturally be some variation from the minus JPY 5 billion of raw material cost in the second half. But given the lead time lag in the procurement pricing, we don't expect a major swing. We feel we have reasonably good visibility on this. That's the first answer. On the second point, overseas. The situation overseas differs from Japan by country. In some countries, regulations and rules make it easier to pass through cost to price in some countries, while in others, it's harder. So there are countries where we can talk about the price pass-through as in Japan and countries where we will pursue an effective price increase through means such as reducing the frequency of special sales, adding value and cutting cost. In any case, since conditions vary by country overseas, we intend to counter the raw material cost impact using the approach best suited to each country. In particular, as you know, in Southeast and South Asia, Thailand and Malaysia, for example, while detergent mix is high, how we strengthen our business there is a major theme. To do that, beyond the price increases already mentioned, we are also working on raw material cost reductions, changing formulations and improving the profit. In Malaysia, we are shifting product mix from powder detergent to liquid detergent to help offset the raw material cost headwind. Taking these various actions, we intend and believe we can address the rising raw material costs overseas through an approach that differs from Japan.

Tokuchika Ogaki

analyst
#66

And the Dubai crude oil assumption, could you comment on that, please?

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#67

On the Dubai crude assumption, we have a page for that. Let me have Fukuda respond to you.

Kengo Fukuda

executive
#68

This is Fukuda. As shown here, we are assuming $85 per barrel for the full year. The first half was $91. So for the second half, we are assuming around $80, slight decline. That said, raw material cost increase and the Dubai crude price do not necessarily move in parallel. So we do not expect the cost increase impact to change materially from what I have described earlier. But if there is a significant change in the Middle East situation going forward, that could be a different scenario, and we intend to respond flexibly.

Masayuki Takemori

executive
#69

As we are already considerably behind the time, so we close the Q&A session here. Our apologies to everyone who still has a hand raised. With that, we now close the Lion Corporation's financial results briefing. Thank you very much for joining us today. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]

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