ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
October 15, 2026
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorThank you. Welcome to ManpowerGroup's third quarter earnings results conference call. [Operator Instructions] This call is being recorded. If you care to drop off now, please do so. I would like to turn the call over to ManpowerGroup's Chair and CEO, Mr. Jonas Prising.
Jonas Prising
executiveYou may begin. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our third quarter 2026 conference call. Our Chief Financial Officer, Jack McGinnis, and our President and Chief Strategy Officer, Becky Frankiewicz, are both with me today. To your convenience, our prepared remarks are available in the Investor Relations section of our website at manpowergroup.com. I'll begin with the leadership news we announced this morning, followed by a brief overview of the quarter. Becky will then discuss our results in more detail, provide an update on our transformation, and highlight the opportunities we are capturing with AI. Jack will then walk through the detailed financial results and our guidance for the fourth quarter of 2026. I'll close with a few comments before we open the line for Q&A. Turning to Jack, who will cover the safe harbor language.
John McGinnis
executiveGood morning, everyone. This conference call includes forward-looking statements, including statements concerning economic and geopolitical uncertainty, which are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These statements are based on management's current expectations or beliefs. Actual results might differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Slide 2 of our earnings release presentation further identifies forward-looking statements made in this call and factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially and information regarding reconciliation of non-GAAP measures.
Jonas Prising
executiveThank you, Jack. Before we turn to today's results, I would like to begin with the leadership transition we announced this morning. I am delighted to share that as part of the board's long-term succession planning, Becky Frankiewicz will become our next Chief Executive Officer and join ManpowerGroup's Board of Directors effective January 1, 2027. And at that time, I will transition to the role of Executive Chair. This transition reflects our commitment to leadership development, building world-class talent from within, and the strength of our executive team. Becky and I have worked closely together on ManpowerGroup's ongoing transformation, and I have seen firsthand the exceptional leadership, strategic perspective, and deep commitment that she brings to our company. Becky knows our business inside and out. Through her leadership of our North America region and oversight of our global strategy and commercial performance, she has helped position ManpowerGroup for its next era of transformation, innovation, and profitable growth. At the same time, her broad leadership experience brings a fresh perspective that will continue to strengthen the company's future direction. I am confident Becky brings the experience, judgment, and enterprise perspective to lead ManpowerGroup into its next chapter. And I look forward to working closely with her to ensure a seamless transition and supporting her in my role as Executive Chair. Now with that, let's turn to the quarter. We delivered yet another quarter of solid performance, reflecting the strong traction we're building and representing another important step forward. The progress we have made reinforces our confidence that 2026 is an inflection point for the business. Both as we realize the benefits of the strategic actions that we've taken the last several years and as demand continues to improve. Three key areas of strength stand out this quarter. Manpower continues to deliver very strong results and gain share, particularly in the U.S. Experis and Talent Solutions brands' performance both improved from the previous quarter. And alongside that commercial momentum we are making meaningful progress on our transformation agenda and remain confident in our commitment to deliver $200 million in permanent cost savings in 2028. I will now cover the consolidated performance before Becky goes deeper into our brand performance regional highlights and provides an update on our transformation and commercial strategy. We continued to see top line momentum in the quarter, delivering reported revenues of $4.8 billion, representing organic constant currency growth of 6%. System-wide revenue, including our expanded franchise revenue base, was $5.3 billion. We know, where we focus, we win. We continue to leverage our scale and global footprint and have focused on commercial efforts in the markets, verticals, and opportunities where demand is strongest and where we have a clear opportunity to win and capture profitable shares. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 2.2%. Continued revenue growth together with disciplined capacity management and continued SG&A optimization resulted in improved operating leverage with 10 basis points of year-over-year margin expansion on a constant currency basis. Margin in the quarter reflected stable staffing margin from the previous quarter and a slightly softer permanent recruitment trend notably in France, as well as lower Right Management outplacements volumes as layoff activity slowed in the third quarter. We continue to actively shape our business toward higher value opportunities where we are most differentiated. Our leadership team remains focused on executing against the current demand environment while positioning the company for the opportunities ahead. Simultaneously, our transformation remains on track against the objectives we laid out earlier this year. The path forward for ManpowerGroup is clear. We believe that the inflection point we predicted is evident in our performance. As we build momentum across the business with continued strength in Manpower, further recovery in Experis and Talent Solutions, and meaningful progress on our transformation, including cost reduction initiatives, we are very well positioned to deliver incremental growth and greater operating leverage over time.
Becky Frankiewicz
executiveLet me turn it over to Becky. Thank you, Jonas. I want to start by thanking you for your leadership and the partnership we have shared. I appreciate the confidence you and the Board have placed in me. It is a privilege to take this organization forward to our next chapter. ManpowerGroup has a strong legacy and a clear purpose. This is what drew me to this company and remains the foundation for our future. We see significant opportunities to accelerate our human-first, digital-always approach to deliver our strategy, expand our AI capabilities, and create even greater value for our clients, our candidates, and our shareholders. As I prepare to step into the role of Chief Executive Officer, we will continue to turn strategic vision to action, driving strong performance and positioning the company for even greater long-term success. Now turning to our third quarter performance. We are successfully executing our strategy, which is unlocking commercial momentum. Growth is broadening across our brands and geographies, while our expanded digital capabilities are helping us win new clients and deepen existing relationships. These drivers are strengthening our competitive position and reinforcing our confidence in the long-term opportunity ahead. Within our Manpower brand, we delivered another very strong quarter. With ongoing revenue growth as demand conditions continue to strengthen, commercial staffing remained very positive while professional staffing returned to growth during the quarter, providing another indicator of momentum across the business. In the U.S., Manpower gained market share through new logos and expansion of wallet within existing clients, delivering our ninth consecutive quarter of growth with double-digit revenue growth and improved profitability. We saw continued solid demand across consumer goods, notably food manufacturing, and logistics, as well as opportunities tied to automation and reshoring, which are driving demand for specialized technical talent. Outside the U.S., we saw encouraging performance across several of our European markets. Northern Europe accelerated from the previous quarter, led by strong growth in the U.K. and double-digit growth in Germany, driving significant year-over-year improvement in regional profitability, while Italy continued execute well and maintain market leadership. Experis, our technology, talent and services business, saw improving trends globally, with U.S. Experis crossing to growth in the quarter. This marks an important inflection in performance, and we are encouraged by improved conditions in activity across financial services, healthcare, and energy. We continue to invest in data governance, AI implementation, and cloud optimization. Our human plus AI strategy is also gaining commercial traction, contributing to pipeline growth, deal wins, and higher margin opportunity. This marks an important inflection in performance, and we are encouraged with the improvement we are seeing. In Talent Solutions, the revenue trend improved from the second quarter. We continue to sharpen our focus across all our Talent Solutions lines of business, Right Management, Tapfin MSP, and RPO, responding to the growing needs of global clients by further strengthening how we serve multinational accounts, a more seamless and consistent experience across markets. This is already creating the conditions to expand share of wallet with global clients by delivering greater business impact and stronger workforce outcomes. Our momentum is not only being driven by improved demand, it is also being fueled by the actions we have taken to transform the business and position ourselves for long-term growth. We remain on track to deliver on our target of permanent annual cost savings in 2028. Our recent efforts have been focused on the front office at delivering greater speed and driving efficiencies through scale. In the U.S., the program is advancing in line with our expectations as we continue to redesign our sales and recruitment processes. We are now taking the next step by extending the program to the U.K. on our path to scaling to the rest of the world. As we scale, our focus remains on creating a more efficient operating model, lowering our cost to serve, and improving productivity, while giving our teams both the tools and greater capacity to delight clients, candidates, and capture new growth. Across all three brands, we are increasingly using AI to improve internal efficiency and to create differentiated value for clients and candidates while unlocking new growth opportunities. We continue to expand our AI-enabled talent screening capabilities, extending our scale across key markets, including Italy and the U.S. in the third quarter, now reaching 70% of our revenue, improving fill rates while accelerating time to hire and enhancing the candidate experience. We believe one of our greatest competitive advantages is our ability to combine talent, technology, and trusted partnerships at scale. By building a broad ecosystem of industry leading partners, we are bringing clients integrated solutions that accelerate their workforce, digital, and AI agendas. In an environment where clients are increasingly seeking outcomes rather than activity, our ability to connect talent, technology, and business transformation for greater impact will become a powerful differentiator. Last quarter, I spoke about our work with SoundHound AI and IBM Watson X Orchestrate. Since then, we have continued to deepen partnerships across Europe with organizations including AWS, SAP, and Microsoft, helping clients accelerate cloud, data, and AI transformations. Partnerships are beginning to create tangible commercial impact, increasing share of wallet, and deepening our integration into client transformation programs. Overall, we are encouraged by the progress we are seeing as our strategy comes to life across the business, and we remain confident in the opportunities ahead. Now turn it over to Jack to discuss our financial performance.
John McGinnis
executiveThanks, Becky. In the third quarter, we delivered reported revenues of $4.8 billion. System-wide revenue, including franchises, was $5.3 billion. Our third quarter revenue results represented constant currency growth of 5%, which came in at the midpoint of our guidance range. Gross profit margin came in at 15.9%. Adjusted EBITDA was $107 million, representing a 14% increase in constant currency compared to the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 2.2%, up 10 basis points year over year and came in at the midpoint of our guidance range. Organic days adjusted constant currency revenue increased 6% in the quarter, which came in at the midpoint of our guidance driven by our Manpower business. Turning to the EPS bridge, reported earnings per share for the quarter was ¢71. Adjusted EPS was $1.01 and came in at the midpoint of our guidance range. Walking from our guidance midpoint of $1.01, our results included better operational performance of $0.01 and a slightly higher weighted average shares in the quarter due to dilution associated with the increase in the share price, which had a negative $0.01 impact. Restructuring costs and strategic transformation program costs represented $0.27, and a U.S. Jefferson Wells sale related item represented a $0.03 negative impact. Next, let's review our revenue by business line. Year over year, on an organic constant currency basis, the Manpower brand had strong growth of 7% in the quarter, very close to the 8% growth in the second quarter. The Experis brand revenue trend was flat, an improvement from the 2% decline in the second quarter. The Talent Solutions brand was up 1%, year-over-year, an improvement from the second quarter result of flat. With Talent Solutions, our RPO business continued a sequential revenue trend improvement from the second quarter and crossed over to slight growth in the quarter. Our MSP business saw continued solid revenue growth while Right Management declined during the quarter on lower outplacements. Looking at the gross profit margin in detail, our gross margin came in at 15.9% for the quarter. Staffing margin was stable from the second quarter and on a year over year basis represented a 50 basis point reduction reflecting mixed shifts year over year, after the improvement from the 60 basis point decline in the second quarter. Permanent recruitment activity came in slightly softer than expected in France and select other markets and drove a 10 basis point decline. Right Management career transition within Talent Solutions contributed a 10 basis point reduction as outplacement activity decreased in the quarter. Moving on to our gross profit by business line. During the quarter, the Manpower brand comprised 65% of gross profit. Our Experis professional business comprised 19% and Talent Solutions comprised 16%. Our consolidated gross profit grew by 1% on an organic constant currency basis year over year, a continuation of the 1% increase in the second quarter. The Manpower brand grew 5% in organic constant currency gross profit year over year, stable from the 5% increase in the second quarter. Gross profit in our Experis brand decreased 2% in organic constant currency year over year, a significant improvement from the 6% decrease in the second quarter. Gross profit in Talent Solutions decreased 2% an organic constant currency year over year which was an improvement from the 4% decrease in the second quarter. The improvement in trend was driven by RPO and MSP. Right Management saw a gross profit decline in the quarter on decreased outplacement activity. Reported SG&A expense in the quarter was $685 million. SG&A as adjusted was down 2% on a constant currency basis. The year over year constant currency decrease largely consisted of reductions in operational costs of $6 million. Dispositions represented a decrease of $5 million, while currency changes contributed to a $3 million decrease. Adjusted SG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue represented 13.7% in constant currency in the third quarter. Adjustment represented restructuring and strategic transformation program charges of $16 million, and a U.S. Jefferson Wells disposition charge of $2 million. Enhancing gross profit growth with strong cost controls while funding ongoing transformation to enhance EBITDA margin in both the short and long term remains one of our highest priorities. The Americas segment comprised 26% of consolidated revenue. Revenue in the quarter was $1.2 billion, representing an increase of 14% year-over-year on an organic constant currency basis. Adjusted OUP was $52 million and OUP margin was 4.2%. The U.S. is the largest country in the America segment, comprising 58% of segment revenues. Revenue in the U.S. was $729 million during the quarter, representing a 9% organic days adjusted increase compared to the prior year. OUP as adjusted for our U.S. business was $29 million in the quarter. OUP margin as adjusted for our U.S. business adjusted was 4%. Within the U.S., the Manpower brand comprised 31% of gross profit during the quarter. Revenue for the Manpower brand in the U.S. increased 15% on a days adjusted basis during the quarter. This marks nine consecutive quarters of growth and a continuation of strong performance from the 16% increase in the second quarter. The Experis brand in the U.S. comprised 37% of gross profit in the quarter. Within Experis in the U.S., substantially all the revenues represent IT resourcing and services. Experis U.S. revenue was up 4% on an organic, days-adjusted basis during the quarter. An improvement from the flat result in the second quarter. Talent Solutions in the U.S. contributed 32% of gross profit and saw a 5% increase in revenue year over year in the quarter, reflecting a stable rate of growth from the second quarter, driven by ongoing solid growth in RPO and strong growth in MSP. This was partially offset by declines in Right Management and lower outplacement activity in the quarter. Overall, the U.S. had strong organic revenue growth in the third quarter, and we expect solid mid-single-digit percentage growth in the fourth quarter. Southern Europe revenue comprised 46% of consolidated revenue in the quarter. Revenue in Southern Europe was $2.2 billion, representing 2% growth in constant currency during the third quarter. Adjusted OUP for our Southern Europe business was $69 million in the quarter, and OUP margin was 3.1%. Restructuring charges of $5 million represented actions taken in France. France revenue equaled $1.1 billion and comprised 51% of the Southern Europe segment in the quarter and was down 2% on a constant currency basis. The adjusted OUP for our French business was $27 million in the quarter. Adjusted OUP margin was 2.4%. France revenue trends were slightly lower in the third quarter, but the trend improved during the quarter. Based on trends in September and into early October, we expect a slightly improved year-over-year revenue trend in the fourth quarter. Revenue in Italy equaled $483 million in the third quarter, reflecting an increase of 5% on a days adjusted constant currency basis. OUP as adjusted equaled $27 million and OUP margin was 5.7%. Our Italy business is executing well and leads in the market. We estimate a similar revenue rate the fourth quarter. Our Northern Europe segment comprised 18% of consolidated revenue in the quarter. Revenue of $861 million represented a 6% increase in constant currency. OUP was $8 million in the quarter. This represents year-over-year OUP improvement during the last four quarters, reflecting the significant actions taken in the past. Our largest market in Northern Europe segment is the U.K., which represented 33% of segment revenues in the quarter. During the quarter, the U.K. saw strong growth with revenues increasing 7% on a days-adjusted constant currency basis. Germany had very significant growth during the quarter, and the remaining countries in the region progressed as expected, with largely stable to improving revenue trends. The Asia-Pacific Middle East segment comprises 10% of total company revenue. In the quarter, revenue has equaled $515 million, representing an increase of 4% in constant currency. OUP was $24 million and OUP margin was 4.6%. Our largest market in the APME segment is Japan, which represented 57% of segment revenues in the quarter. Revenue in Japan grew 3% on a days adjusted constant currency basis, and we expect a similar level of revenue growth in the fourth quarter. I'll now turn to cash flow and balance sheet. In the third quarter, free cash outflow was $17 million compared to free cash flow of $45 million in the prior year. Free cash flow was negatively impacted by the timing of MSP business payments at the end of the third quarter and will have a positive impact in the fourth quarter. Excluding the quarter end MSP items, free cash flow would have been a positive inflow of $75 million. We expect very strong free cash flow in the fourth quarter. At quarter end, day sales outstanding was 59 days, flat from the prior year. During the third quarter, capital expenditures represented $9 million, and we did not repurchase any shares. Our balance sheet ended the quarter with cash of $233 million and total debt of $1.1 billion. Net debt equaled $870 million at quarter end, which was relatively stable from June 30th. Our debt ratios at quarter end reflect total gross debt to trailing 12 months adjusted EBITDA of 2.6 and total debt to total capitalization at 34%. Detail of our debt and credit facility arrangements are included in the appendix of the presentation. Next, I'll review our outlook for the fourth quarter of 2026. Our revenue guidance estimates ongoing solid growth in the fourth quarter. On a constant currency basis, this ranges between a 3% increase and a 7% increase, and at the midpoint is a 5% increase. Business days this year and the impact of dispositions adjusts our organic days adjusted constant currency revenue growth estimate to 4% at the midpoint. We anticipate stable underlying staffing margin into the fourth quarter, an estimated GP margin of 15.9% at the midpoint. EBITDA margin for the fourth quarter is projected to be up 20 basis points year over year at the midpoint compared to the prior year. This represents an improvement from the run rate EBITDA margin expansion of 10 basis points in the first three quarters of 2026. We estimate that the effective tax rate for the fourth quarter will be 44%. We are forecasting earnings per share for the fourth quarter to be in the range of $1.03 to $1.13. We estimate our weighted average shares to be 48.3 million. The slightly higher share count is driven by the impact of our share price appreciation on the diluted share calculation over the last three months. The guidance range assumes a neutral foreign currency impact, and our foreign currency translation rate estimates are disclosed at the bottom of the guidance slide. We'll continue to carve out any restructuring and global strategic transformation program costs, and they are not included in the underlying guidance.
Jonas Prising
executiveI am pleased with our performance in the third quarter, which reflects continued progress across the business. Demand conditions continue to stabilize and strong commercial execution translated into healthy organic revenue growth. At the same time, disciplined cost management helped us convert that growth into strong longer operating performance. As we enter the fourth quarter, we remain focused on executing against the opportunities ahead, advancing our transformation, and driving sustainable, profitable growth. I know, you'll join me in congratulating Becky on her appointment as our next CEO. I look forward to working closely with her in this next chapter and to speaking with all of you on my last earnings call in January 2027. As always, thank you to our talented team for their relentless focus and to our candidates and clients for your continued partnership with ManpowerGroup. Operator, please open the line for questions.
Operator
operatorThank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Andrew Steinerman with J.P. Morgan. Your line is open.
Andrew Steinerman
analystHi, congrats, Becky. My question for the team is about Manpower France. You really did a good job of helping us understand what the trends were in the quarter, but why does ManpowerGroup revenues dip in France? And does it seem like this country might be on a different recovery trajectory than the other kind of more favorable trajectories that we see in the major countries?
Jonas Prising
executiveThanks, Andrew. Yeah, and you point out the market volatility in France, because we are performing at the top of the market. We beat our peers in the second quarter, too early to say what it looks like in the third quarter. As you can see from the news, there is, you know, some political uncertainty, elections coming up kinds of things. But I would say overall we've been very successful at targeting areas that show opportunity and that commercial agility and that focus. Is what allows us to stay on top of the market. And that's what we're going to continue to do find the opportunities where they are execute with a very strong team and very strong and experienced team in France that's managing the business really well. But I think broadly speaking, as you point out, we've been very encouraged to see the strong trends in a number of our European countries. You can see the U.K. improving, you can Germany improve in Poland's very strong Norway strong Spain is strong so we're really seeing a broadening of the improvement in Europe overall and thanks to that and our diversification our strong portfolio and our commercial momentum we can really offset some of those bumps on the market. the road. But we remain confident in France as being a strong market overall. Right.
Andrew Steinerman
analystAnd just as a follow-up, then the October trend's improved year over year in France. What – know what caused that. I mean, I believe the political uncertainty that you're talking about is still the case.
Jonas Prising
executiveYes, that's true, but you could see a bit of volatility in July and August, but then strengthening in September, that's really the basis into October and for the fourth quarter as well, because you'll have noticed guiding to a slightly better performance and improved performance for France in the fourth quarter. That's a huge volatility in the June, July and August and strengthening September. That's really the basis for outlook into October and for the fourth quarter note that we're going to better performance, improved performance for.
John McGinnis
executiveJack, maybe you have some additional comments. Yes, I would just add, Andrew, that if you look at manufacturing PMI, the low point was July. So July for France dipped just below 50. That was the weakest part of the quarter for us, and then it improved in August and September as well above the 50 level. So really I'd say that was it. As we exited the quarter, we saw improvement. And that's really why I mentioned that we have an improving trend from the third quarter trend into the fourth quarter. And it's really based on what we're seeing here at the end of September into early October, a better trend than the third quarter overall trend.
Andrew Steinerman
analystMakes good sense. Thank you very much.
Jonas Prising
executiveThanks, Andrew.
Operator
operatorThank you. Our next question comes from Mark Marcon with Baird. Your line is open.
Mark Marcon
analystGood morning, Jonas. It's been a pleasure working with you over the years. So congratulations on your next step. Congratulations to you. I have a couple of questions related to the leadership transition. One is this kind of like why now? And then secondly, Becky, for you, and how come, you know, you've been the President and Chief Strategy Officer. I think you guys have been signaling, you know, that this transition eventually would occur. And, Becky, you were clearly positioned as Jonas's successor. How committed are you to what you announced back in April with regards to the transformation plan and the ability to raise the margins materially and in addition to that, you know, to get the significant savings. We were basically looking for, you know, over 100 basis points of margin improvement. So, just wondering if there's any change to the plans that you outlined back in April in terms of the transformation, and how confident are you that we can accomplish those?
Jonas Prising
executiveWell Mark, first of all, thank you very much. It's been a great journey and I have to say I'm very, very excited about Becky taking over the leadership of the company. This has been a really thoughtful, well-prepared transition driven by the board. The board has been planning this together with us and it builds on a story and a culture of continuity, talent development, and a very strong leadership team. So I'm very excited for what's to come, very pleased with what we've accomplished so far, but knowing that very, bright things are ahead for us in the future under Becky's leadership.
Becky Frankiewicz
executiveThanks, Jonas. Thanks, Mark. So a couple of things. As you mentioned, I took over President and Chief Strategy Officer about a year and a half ago. So I've been working very closely with Jonas, Jack, and the whole leadership team on the strategy and specifically on the transformation and the commitment that we made back in April. And I'd say we're pleased the strategy is working. You know, we're we're delivering strong year to date performance. We have commercial momentum fully committed to the commitment that we made. Again, was part of the architect behind that to deliver our cost savings. And I think the opportunity now is to go faster and deeper focus on speed to market, creating better insights, lowering our cost structure and most importantly delivering increased shareholder value. That's what you'll see from me.
Mark Marcon
analystBut are you committed to being able to accomplish, you know, the 110 basis points of margin improvement?
Becky Frankiewicz
executiveFully committed.
Mark Marcon
analystGreat. And then just one follow-up question. Jack, I appreciated the comments with regards to the PMIs, but when we take a look at diesel prices and interest rates in France, um, you know, aren't you concerned that there may end up being some sort of a, you know, a bit of a negative impact on the PMIs and therefore industrial sentiment in France? And maybe that's a question for Jonas, since Jonas knows France so well.
Jonas Prising
executiveWell, you know, we're always monitoring market conditions and many things can change but from what we're seeing today from what our clients are telling us and from what employers are doing the labor market remains stable we have strong commercial focus on the opportunities as we see them and you know things change we're used to to being agile and changing and going after opportunities where else they may they may lie. But as you can tell from what we're seeing today, employer confidence, despite the volatility in France remains solid in France. And, you know, if that changes, we change. But right now, we don't see that happening. We're confident in France as an overall market and we'll adjust as we need, just as we have done many times in the past.
Mark Marcon
analystGreat. Thanks. Congratulations to both you and Becky.
Jonas Prising
executiveThank you.
Becky Frankiewicz
executiveThank you, Mark.
Operator
operatorThank you. Our next question comes from Andy Grobler with BNP Paribas. Your line is open.
Andrew Grobler
analystHi, good morning. Yes, Becky, congratulations and Jonas, good luck with the next part of your journey. I just wanted to ask about the U.S., actually, that the Manpower brand grew 15% in the past quarter. I wondered if you were beginning to see any broadening out of that strength and recovery from large clients within Manpower to the rest of your operations within the country. Thank you.
Becky Frankiewicz
executiveYes, Andy, I'll take that one. Thank you first. So we're very pleased with the strength of the Manpower business in the U.S. As you heard me talk about, we're nine quarters of growth in the market led by the Manpower business. To your question, we've seen a broadening of that growth across more clients. We're winning new logos. Our pipeline is robust and we're continuing to see the expansion of that growth into our convenience clients. And so we feel really good about the Manpower U.S. business and the leadership of that team. You also heard me say, Andy, that we saw the Experis business turn to growth this quarter, which was encouraging and Talent Solutions continues strong performance in the U.S. So we feel like the U.S. is leading the recovery of the market and again, led by Manpower.
Andrew Grobler
analystThank you. And if I could just ask one follow-up on Right Management, which was a headwind to group gross margins in the quarter. To what extent is Right Management running at activity levels above average, and therefore as markets recover, assuming that they do for now, that Right could be a headwind to group gross margins through the next few quarters.
John McGinnis
executiveAndy, this is Jack. I'll take that one. So I would say, you know, what we've really been seeing from Right Management over the last two years is revenue momentum on restructuring activity, right? And what we started to signal last quarter was that was slowing down. So really, beginning last quarter we saw Right Management start to inflect to revenue declines and we're talking modest level of declines for Right Management and that continued again. This quarter and a little bit more of a decline. But the way I'd look at it is if we look at that over the long run, what we typically see is when the staffing businesses are doing very well, we see restructuring activity and layoff activity coming down. And basically that's, what's playing out for us now. So, you know, as you can see, even though there's still reports, of course, of restructurings that are happening, more broadly speaking, as you look at the labor markets, uh we're seeing restructuring activity decreasing. And that's coming through in Right Management. So year over year, they're going to have a smaller contribution. But the good news is that translates to staffing momentum. And that's what we've been seeing on the commercial staffing side, and that continuing as Becky just referred to, we're encouraged by what we're seeing on the professional staffing side, particularly in the U.S., that could be some early momentum building into the future as well. So that's why I would look at it. I would say the Right Management contribution is lower on those degrees declines, but I think it's manageable at this time.
Andrew Grobler
analystOkay. Thank you very much.
John McGinnis
executiveThank you.
Operator
operatorThank you. Our next question comes from Kartik Mehta with North Coast Research. Your line is open.
Kartik Mehta
analystHey, good morning. I wanted to ask you a little bit about Experis, obviously starting to see some momentum. I'm wondering how much of the growth is related to recovery of IT spending versus companies spending on AI projects. If you think that the momentum Experis is seeing is now something that could carry into 2027 based on spending patterns by your customers.
Becky Frankiewicz
executiveYes, Kartik. Hi, it's Becky. I'll speak to Experis. Yes. So what we would say is we're seeing both. You said, is it being driven by tech spending or AI projects? Increasingly, the answer to that is both because they're increasingly converging. And so we are seeing and you heard in the U.S. when we improve globally, but the U.S. has had a strong conversation. Quarter, we are seeing a bit of employer confidence start to signal spend in starting these AI infrastructure projects specifically. We're hopeful that expands. Again, we've seen it start in the U.S., and we are encouraged that it will expand globally.
Kartik Mehta
analystThanks, Becky. Jack, just a follow-up on capital allocation. Um, you know, you're expecting a strong quarter and obviously a strong free cash flow. When do you think you the company would be comfortable enough that you could start repurchasing shares again?
John McGinnis
executiveThanks, Kartik, for the question. Yeah, I would say one step at a time on that specifically. I think we feel really good about the momentum we've been building on continuing to strengthen the balance sheet. We've seen that. You see our net cash, our net debt level. Pretty much in line with where we ended the second quarter again here in the third quarter. So all of that is very encouraging. We're definitely on a much stronger track and we're going to continue to do that. I think we have a great track record when it comes to capital allocation. You've seen that in the past in terms of the dividend and share repurchases. And I'd say as we continue this momentum, you should expect that that will return. I think the timing at this stage, we'll just have to continue quarter by quarter continuing to strengthen. And in the future, we'll talk more about that. But I think right now, the priority is just continuing to strengthen the balance sheet. And for that reason, there hasn't been any share repurchases in the last quarter or so. And I wouldn't expect any in the very immediate future, but I do think if this continues, we'll be talking about that in not too distant future as the momentum continues.
Operator
operatorThank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from Trevor Romeo with William Blair. Your line is open.
Unknown Speaker
unknownMorning. Thank you for taking the questions and I'll also say congrats to both Becky and Jonas. So first, I just had kind of a broad revenue growth question. So I think consolidated year over year growth had been accelerating for several quarters and this quarter was more like steady and the guide kind of reflects steady going forward as well. So I guess my question is, is, you know, 6% organic constant currency kind of where you see growth topping out in this kind of recovery? Or do you have confidence that consolidated growth can accelerate or continue to accelerate as the recovery progresses here?
John McGinnis
executiveThanks, Trevor, for the question. I would say, no, I don't think we see this as a limit or a top out. I think what you're seeing is really strong momentum on the commercial staffing side. But as Becky and Jonas both talked about, you know, as we've been saying, seeing this recovery play out, it's being led by commercial and that's been driving the 6% organic constant currency. But as professional and Talent Solutions and predominantly perm and RPO kick in, that will drive it further from that point. So as Becky mentioned, we're really encouraged by Experis in the U.S. Flipping to the 4% growth in the third quarter, as we saw the commercial recovery take it was led by the U.S. The U.S. start it, and then we saw key markets in Europe follow. And we don't know exactly the timing of how that's going to work on the professional and on the perm side, but we are seeing early signs that, you know, as we showed the year, the quarter over quarter progression for both Experis and Talent Solutions, we're making progress quarter over quarter, and that's how the Manpower progress started if we go back a number of quarters. So that's going to continue to give us momentum when professional and Talent Solutions see more acceleration, and we have a great opportunity to go above the 6% organic growth as we go forward.
Unknown Speaker
unknownThank you, Jack. That's helpful. And quick follow-up. I know you've got a couple of questions on France already, but what's the latest at this point you're kind of hearing on the large business surtax for years after this year, just with the debt situation and the budget there?
John McGinnis
executiveSo on France budget, it's a timely question. They are going through the process now of trying to advance the draft budget. I think the real answer is it's really too early to tell. Um, it needs to go through, um, full parliament review. Um, there has been discussion about reducing the surcharge into next year, but I'd say it's really premature to call it at this stage. I think we, uh, need the government to continue to advance their deliberation regarding the budget overall and we'll when there's more certainty around it we'll be able to comment more but at this stage it's it's still a bit uncertain and we need that process to play out a bit further.
Unknown Speaker
unknownOkay, thank you very much.
John McGinnis
executiveThank you.
Operator
operatorThank you. Our next question comes from Roni Kennedy with Barclays. Your line is open.
Unknown Speaker
unknownHi, good morning. This is Roni Kennedy, on for Manav. Thank you for taking our questions. First and foremost, congrats to you both, Jonas and Becky. You close the call by highlighting improving demand, strong commercial execution, and disciplined cost management. What and then also benefits from the transformation as we think about exiting 2026 and building into 2027, which factors give you the greatest confidence in incremental earnings growth and where do you see the greatest opportunity?
Becky Frankiewicz
executiveYes, thank you, Roni. I'll take that. I think we've demonstrated a couple of things this year in terms of executing our strategy and really architecting a future where we can grow in any environment. So first, I would say our agility that we have honed this year on shifting ourselves into verticals where there is growth and profitable growth that we can serve, gives me a lot of confidence, you know, right now we're focused on closing 2026, um, with great results. And so that is what gives me confidence, uh, really our commercial activity and our strategy that's starting to show, uh, results in the market.
Unknown Speaker
unknownGot it, thank you. And then, um, one on gross profit margin, if I may, please. I think the fourth quarter guide assumes it remains around that 15.9%, but year-over-year EBITDA margin expansion accelerates 20 basis points from, I think, 10 basis point run through in the first three quarters. Can you please walk through the drivers of that stronger conversion as Experis, RPO, and convenience businesses continue to improve and whether that creates a better exit rate set up for the operating leverage into 2027?
John McGinnis
executiveYes, no, Roni, thank you for the question. So yes, absolutely operating or the EBITDA margin projection for the fourth quarter is expansion 20 basis points year over year. And that does compare to a run rate of 10 basis points for the first nine months. So we are building momentum. What seeing there is stable staffing margin. And as I commented, staffing margin was stable from the second quarter into the third quarter and we're projecting it to continue to be stable in the fourth quarter, what that means is we've been talking about the enterprise mix shift. That's largely what worked its way through and you see that in the stable GP margin for the second half of the year here. Um, what's also happening is, uh, you're going to see some seasonal improvement in GP dollars, uh, you the third quarter does include the August holiday month. So quarter over quarter, you're going to be seeing stronger GP margin dollars in countries like Italy and others that are impacted by the European holidays. And the fourth quarter always is a little tricky when it comes to the month of December because in a weak environment, we'll see bigger shutdowns in terms of manufacturing production and so forth. And this year we're really projecting more of a stable environment. And for that reason, GP dollars will be in the fourth quarter and all of that combined with ongoing really strong cost dynamics that is going to allow us to pull that 20 to 20 basis points of improvement on the EBITDA line year over year into the fourth quarter. So really those are the main factors more of the same with stability on the staffing market.
Joshua Chan
analystSide. Thank you, appreciate it.
Operator
operatorThank you. Our next question comes from Joshua Chan with UBS. Your line is open.
Joshua Chan
analystHi, good morning and congrats, Jonas and Becky as well. Um, maybe tacking on to the prior question, I guess it's pretty impressive to have SG&A down while you grow revenue. So could you talk about what's driving that and then ultimately how sustainable that is kind of into next year?
John McGinnis
executiveYes, thanks, Josh. And absolutely we're very proud of that. I would say, you know, we've actually been demonstrating the building blocks of that for many quarters. So we took a lot of very difficult actions in the prior year as we looked at what was happening in demand in many of those markets. We're on the other side of that now from a demand side, as we talked about the commercial staffing recovery, but we continue to hold the line on costs. And that's what the transformation is all about. So we've talked about the back office transformation, which we started a few years ago. We've talked about the fact that that is paying fruit. This year, we see the positive impact of that. And you've seen us start the front office transformation this year in the U.S. and as Becky said, is now going on in the U.K. as well. So all of these actions are all about reducing our permanent cost structure. And we're starting to see that as well as the other actions we've taken before the front office transformation, continuing to result in a cost trend that is manageable. And as we take on revenue growth, we don't need to increase the level of our cost base as we have in the past based on all the work that we've done in that regard. So that's really what's driving this. And as we go forward, you should expect that we're going to continue to be, you know, continue that discipline around the cost line. And as the transformation takes hold, as we've laid out in the multi-year plan, we will start to see the benefits of that as we go forward into future years. And that will be part of the revenue momentum continuing with costs continuing to be a key area of focus for reducing permanent cost structure. So you should expect that to continue.
Joshua Chan
analystOkay, great. That's great to hear. Thank you. And then on the Americas very strong growth again, I think the guidance does imply a little bit of a deceleration in the fourth quarter. And I think if I heard you right, Jack, you said mid single digits in the U.S. So I guess what's driving the lower year over year growth? Growth potentially going into the fourth quarter.
John McGinnis
executiveYes, Josh, I wouldn't read too much into that candidly. What I would say is as we look at the growth, uh, of the businesses and the underlying demand in associates on assignment, that continues to be very strong going into the fourth quarter. What you're really seeing there is a little bit of the year over year, impact, a very strong growth on an overall basis in the year ago period for the overall organization. And I'd say Latin America is probably a part of that as well, which has had extremely strong growth. So very proud of our Latin America business and our Latin America team, which has really been driving a lot of that America's growth. I think that's really working in, but I think the main takeaway is the underlying momentum in the business continues from the third quarter into the fourth quarter. And some of that is really more the anniversary impact.
Joshua Chan
analystOkay, great. Thanks for the call and the time.
Operator
operatorThank you. Our next question comes from Tobey Sommer with Truist. Your line is open.
Tobey Sommer
analystThank you. I was wondering if you could talk about Germany and where you're seeing demand there because the rebound in a bench country seems to be fairly important in the margin progression here over the near to medium term. Thank you.
Jonas Prising
executiveYes, we've been very pleased with the progress that we're seeing as we've heard during the call in Europe overall and specifically in Germany. As you know, we've taken some significant actions in years past and they are now starting to pay off and that we're seeing some good progress in our commercial momentum. And maybe Becky, you can give a little bit more color on that.
Becky Frankiewicz
executiveThanks, Jonas. So this is a perfect example, actually, of our intention around focusing on verticals where we believe we have the right relationships and capabilities to deliver. And so we've disclosed in the past, automotive has a big piece of our business there, and we've been very fortunate to grow with select clients in that market.
Tobey Sommer
analystIf I could ask you about your sort of realignment program, do you think that from a competitiveness standpoint that you will emerge from on the other side of this, will you be more competitive with relative to your larger, larger competitors and sort of be able to achieve margins at EBITDA margins at lower gross margins than them as a result of the kind of the heavy lifting and work that you have underway? Yes.
Jonas Prising
executiveI think overall we're building a business that is resilient, agile and can win in any market circumstance thanks to our diversification between the brands such as geographical diversification. You know, increased commercial focus and momentum. Our transformation efforts and you know our strategy so you know whether it's big or small you know we are not too focused on anyone in particular we know our job as Becky had said earlier is to create shareholder value improve our operations operating leverage and move towards our long-term financial objectives on the top line and on a bottom line. And I feel really good about the progress we have made so far. And as we've evidenced in 2026, we early on said 2026 is going to be an inflection year. I think our results demonstrate that is in fact the case. And we feel really good about how we're positioned in this environment. How we're positioning the company for future progress in years to come. So you can expect us to be very competitive in all aspects, thanks to our global scale, diversification, and our transformation as well.
Tobey Sommer
analystThanks, Jonas and Becky. Good luck on the transition.
Jonas Prising
executiveThank you.
Becky Frankiewicz
executiveThank you.
Operator
operatorThank you. This concludes the question and answer session. I'd like to turn the call back over to Jonas.
Jonas Prising
executiveAll right. Thank you, everyone, for your questions. And we look forward to speaking with you again. This concludes this quarter's earnings call, and we look forward to speaking with you again for our fourth quarter earnings call at the beginning of next year. Thanks, everyone, and have a great rest of the week.
Operator
operatorThank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. This live transcript is auto-generated without human intervention or review.
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