Marcopolo S.A. (POMO4) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the conference call of Marcopolo S.A. to announce the results of the fourth quarter of 2022 and for the year of 2022. This conference call is also being transmitted at Marcopolo's Investor Relations website ri.marcopolo.com.br, -- it's being held in Portuguese and simultaneously translated into English, where you can also see the presentation. [Operator Instructions] You should be reminded that this conference call is being recorded. Before continuing, statements made during this conference call on Marcopolo's business prospects, financial and operation projections and goals and also projections on its growth potential. They are forward-looking statements based on the expectations of management regarding the future of the company. Forward-looking statements are highly dependent on market conditions, the domestic market, the overall economic performance of the country and international markets, and therefore, they are subject to change. Today, with us in Caxias do Sul in the state of Rio Grande to Brazil, we have Mr. James Bellini, CEO; Jose Antonio Valiati, CFO and IRO; and Eduardo Willrich, Investor Relations and Planning Manager. Now Mr. Valiati is going to make these considerations about Marcopolo's performance during the year of 2022. Then a Mr. James Bellini will talk about the expectations for 2023. Now I would like to give the word to Mr. Valiati. Mr. Valiati, you may start.

Good morning, everyone. We would like to thank you for your attendance. onto the conference call for the fourth quarter of 2022. Now going to Slide #4, where you can see a brief profile of corp. Marco Polo is a global leader in the world bus market, and it's a leader also in the Brazilian market. Our bus is recognized for their safety and comfort, quality and technology. In the fourth quarter, Marco Polo has demonstrated substantial growth in the manufacturing associated to the end of the pandemic and upward markets going back to normal. The growth in production has been translated to 65% in net revenue growth with a positive effect to all profitability indicators of the company. Now moving to Slide #5. In 2022, the Brazil bus body production action was 19,346 units, 52% superior to that of 2021 without -- however, going back to prepandemic levels. You should be reminded that the increase in volume was gradual along the year. And it started still under the influence of the Pandemic along the first half of the year, we also suffered with a lack of components, especially freight. Production reached expected levels after the third quarter with appropriate volumes also in the fourth quarter. Now moving to Slide #6. In the fourth quarter, Marcopolo's production for the Brazilian market grew 89.7%. -- production for exports from Brazil dropped 13% and production external units shrunk by 39%. The company continued to produce Volares models for passage inventory to keep sales levels in from [indiscernible] in the beginning of 2023. The drop in production in our international units reflects specific strategies that were adopted in some countries to review mix and readapt the portfolio of orders. Now on Slide #7. In the quarter, we have reached a consolidated net revenue of BRL 1.8 billion, a quarterly record for Marcopolo. -- the segment of urban with the most represent activity in revenue accounting for 33.6%. After we have the Roads segment with a participation of 26.7%. Volares still positive highlight with 24% share of our revenues. And then frames for Micros, Moneo Bank parts and others accounted for 4.7% of revenues and 5.2% of the revenues. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the company's gross profit of 354% with a gross margin of 19.8%. The best in gross margin reflects the best environment after the pandemic and evolution of the sales mix recovery of margins through the transfer of costs and higher operational leverage. The gross profit and gross margin were negatively impacted by operational difficulties in Argentina and by the delivery of remaining volumes of the program coming to call a school way regarding the of 2021 with profitability affected by the inflation of the period. The EBITDA was BRL 192 EBITDA with a margin of 10.7%. The best level of EBITDA margin recurring EBITDA margin since 2013. EBITDA suffered a negative effect of the results of our Canadian [ collegiate ] of BRL 16.8 million, the result of the Metalsur in Argentina, BRL 48 million as well as by the delivery of remaining volumes of the program coming this call to school from 2021. If we exclude the negative effect of New Flyer and Metalsur, the EBITDA margin would be 14.4%. The net debt of the Manufacturing segment accounted for in December 2022, 1.7%, the EBITDA of the last 12 months. Now I would like to give the floor to James who's going to talk about market prospects and the outlook for 23.

We are now going to start talking about the intercity segment. So the proportion between light and heavy vehicles has come back to prepandemic levels, thereby improving the sales mix. The is heavy buses used for long distances in tourism now concentrate most of the sales and success of G8 still fosters the sales in all the familiar products, including exports and new markets. In terms of intercity buses direct investment in the Brazilian cities have made it possible to modernize fleet and a trend to keep up with the best practices in public transportation that are adopted in developed countries. The segment is investing in products with higher added value, articulated in electric buses. The company has been increasing the production of electric buses launching testing and approving its products in many different markets. The segment of microbuses and Volares will continue to display good performance. In 2022, the company delivered 2,502 urban buses, 337 microbuses and 1,415 for contemplated '21 and '22 for the program coming in the call. We go to deliver the remaining unit along 2023, and we are waiting for a new bidding that will take place at any time in 2023. The Marco Polo has assured its leadership in the Brazilian market with a 54% market share. The company expects growth also in exports, with sales going back to normal important countries such as Argentina and Mexico. The reopening of certain destinations and urban transportation has delayed the recovery of volumes in exports as compared to the domestic market 2022 international operations are going to improve in 2023 with a recovery of its profitability. Polomex, Marcopolo Mexico after concentrating sales in intercity segment in 2022, especially with the launch of G8, have new markets with the recovery of market Marco Polo Australia, Volgren is still suffering the effects of inflation in the sales portfolio. The cleaning of the portfolio with deliveries and price adjustments is gaining efficiency and cost reduction will be the key tone in 2023. Marcopolo, Argentina Metalsur has quickly adopted its prices to the local reality of prices with relevant changes that took place in 2022 that are beginning to be reflected in profitability and results. NASA Marcopolo South Africa after 2 years of good results project a new positive year qualifying its sales mix and higher volume of intercity buses. Marcopolo China, MAC showed a strong recovery in volumes in 2022 and should continue its recovery process after the reopening of the country. We're expecting a new growth in volumes in 2023. Of the [ collegiate ], Colombia Superpolo will keep its results with a growth in volume and a better sales mix in 2023. We didn't have any significant delays in the Brazilian operations because of the lack of shortage offerings and other parts, which makes it possible for us to have better [indiscernible] ability. In 2022, we had lower inventory because we had problems with the supply of parts that affected manufacturing throughout 2022. Once everything goes back to normal, we are expecting to reduce our inventory. We were also dealt with the influence of Euro 6 in early 2023. We are projecting to sell this inventory along the first half. In terms of cash generation, we also have the payments of the way to school Phase 1 and 11 that are taking place. Another important point, which is part of the normalization of the market, cash generation, is go back to the quarterly paying out of dividends. This is something that we are going to pursue in 2022, considering the decisions we made in December and yesterday, we are paying out 50% of the profit of the year going back to the practice of paying out 40% to 50% of our profits. So we are now reaping the results of the transportation transformation that took place between '20 and '22. The expense cuts readaptation of manufacturing plants, adaptation of international operations going out from India and Egypt, being more cautious with investments, product launches such as active and the new G8. So these are examples of actions that are centered on sustainability of the business were results between reality in 2022, which should continue over the next few years. With the evolution of the market that we are expecting in 2023, the maturity of initiatives focusing on international operations with record results in 2022 through and set a new base for the results of 2023 and future years. Now we may move to the questions-and-answer session.

[Operator Instructions] our first question comes from Andre Ferreira Bradesco BBI.

I would like to explore 2 things with you. First, margin that is very stronger, and encouraging. We still have room to improve margins. So what are your expectations in terms of improvement of margins on your foreign operations, especially in Argentina. And number 2, you're expecting and the announcement of a future auction of the way to school? Are you expecting a bigger auction than the last one.

Thank you, Andre. First to margins. Marco Polo demonstrated in the fourth quarter that it went back to historical levels. And we are expecting these margins to be kept over the next few quarters. As to the international market, which has been our focus in the beginning of 2023, and we are going to seek the necessary profitability for our business. As James mentioned, important decisions and measures have been implemented. The first one is the repricing cost reduction, restructuring of the entire operation. And our focus this year will definitely be to improve the performance and to improve the profitability of our international operations. And as to the way to school program, so the invitation to be will be published at any time now. Last year, it was published in the beginning of the year, and the bid took place in April. We think it's going to be something similar. It will be at any time. And as to volumes, it's impossible for us to make any forecast in terms of one or another volume. We are still waiting for the invitation to bid so that we know the volume.

Our next question comes from Gabriel Rezende from Itau.

It's a quick follow-up for the last question about margins. At mentioned the 14.4% margin when you take out the negative effects -- how much can we have of a positive surprise in the next few years. So we are back to prepandemic levels. Today, your company is leaner as compared to before the pandemic. So what are your expectations for this margin? Do you think it can still grow to 14.4% or even more? Do you want to keep it at that level? And the second question, looking in the mid and long term, you mentioned the trends for a longer time horizon in terms of pricing. So what are your interactions with the regulator. What is the time frame for it to gain momentum to accelerate 2030, maybe do you see any relevant movements in terms of fleet renewal in Brazil based on decarbonization strategy.

Gabriel, as to margin. We are already at this level and Valiati's highlight is to eliminate only the negative impact of Metalsur and New Flyer, but we are pursuing healthier margins in all operations of Marcopolo and even higher. If you look at the results of other international operations, they haven't yet reached the strategic goal of going back to regular levels. So most operation is still far away from this level. Other operations also needs to speak that level. When we talk about 14%, total Flyer in Argentina, it's a 0 result, which does not apply -- it's not -- it's not applicable Metals provided positive results a few years ago in Argentina and in North America, too. So we want margins to be even superior. -- supporting what we have even improving it. And this is our expectation for 2023.

Gabriel, this is James. As to the electrification and decarbonization, what we are seeing is a quite fast movement in the change or rather replacement of the electric matrix diesel to electric -- so city administrations are accelerating this process. And we've been talking to many city halls, many cities, not just in Brazil but also overseas. And everything that we've been doing over the past few years with our full electric bus as teams. And also all the bodies that we have developed for electric frames for partner companies. So we have great expectations for the next 4, 5 years. So we are not yet seeing right now any consistent purchases. But we don't think it will take very long for this market to start have quite consistent and fast growth.

Our next question comes from Lucas Marquiori for BTG Pactual.

Maybe you need to explain how we can compare the first pricing of G8 in contrast with G7 with higher prices for the new generation, and this may be one of the main drivers for margin recovery, the pricing of new products? And how can you compare G8 and G7 margins. Number 2, you are expecting a smoother transition from EURO 5 to EURO 6. So will it be in Q1, Q2 -- so is it going to be in Q1, Q2, we're not going to see the effect. Just for us, can you give us some color for us to understand what you're expecting for Euro 5 into Euro 6 transition?

Well, as to GA pricing, we can't talk about the differences. And as to the transition from EURO 5 to EURO 6 actually, what's going on right now is the production over Euro 5 frames and to flow the production for 2023. Those bodies will be manufactured antibodies will be used and installed up to the second half of the year. And then as we say, afterwards, this is on the transition instead right now, when you're seeing quite high demand already with Euro 6 trade buses. And then I think that the problems in the market will be smaller than we had expected. So we're still installing bodies in Euro 5 frames. And what we're seeing in terms of core sales with Euro 6 frames and bodies. This is not going to be so marked in the second half of the year. So this is going to take place in the middle of the second quarter, but we are expecting it to be back to normal levels and normal flow in the second half of the year and our expectations for the market are still very positive. Going back to your first question again.

So this recomposition of margin towards the end of the year, -- how much do you attribute that to pricing? And then how much does it reflect the inflation and raw materials? So how much comes from pricing and how much comes from other reasons?

Well, the main factor that accounts for it is turning around in terms of operational leverage. So when volume grows significantly, and then naturally we are transferring the inflation and it was really marked and then it's more flat with a growing volume, there's a turnaround in margin. This might not have been so obvious in previous quarters because we were considering the restructuring costs of the company, lots of consequences to the restructurings that we implemented in 2020 and 2021, and it was not hope in 2022. Now that everything is fully implemented, and we are no longer suffering from the shortage of [ arts and trains ]. So we are back to normal levels and operational leverage. Once all of this has been solved, we'll be able to deliver these results in an easier way. And it could have been even better if we didn't have any operational deleverage in our international operations.

Our next question comes from Marcelo Motta from JPMorgan.

So could you tell us a little bit about the margins of the way to school, and it had a positive impact of the auctions of 2021 that you're finishing the deliveries. So in future auctions, are you expecting better margins. So how is this going to evolve along the years in the domestic market to and new flyer, it might be a little bit more transient, but what are you seeing there? All the initiatives and on the release, you talked about supply chain and impact on operations. So how do you see the recovery? And in Metalsur, with a lot of restructuring, could we expect in the first half of 2023, a positive impact? Or will it take any longer.

Marcelo, as to margins on the way to school program, as we said before, we had a negative effect on the rest of the negative effect in the last quarter because of the date that took place in 2021. In the 2022 bid, we were able to recover or transfer the inflation that occurred especially in raw materials and in labor that took place in 2021 and 2022. And now margins are back to their historical levels of profitability that the program had always had. As to New Flyer, the information is very close to what the market has as a whole. So they've been pointing out that with their difficulty with parts. So this is more associated to semiconductors, and this impact has been having a negative effect on new flyer for a while. So the expectation, as we see the results and the solution of this problem in Brazil, we're also solving their problem in 2023 so that they can go back to historical levels in margins and everything that they've been delivering. As to metal store, we are expecting an organization for go back to very good levels. we cannot really predict exactly when, but we have good expectations, possibly in the first half of 2023. We still have a little bit of the portfolio that Metalsur needed to deliver. But after the second quarter of 2023, performance will be back to appropriate levels.

We have now ended our questions-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back to Mr. Valiati for his closing remarks. Mr. Valiati, please, the floor is yours.

Once again, we thank you all very much for your attendance. Our Investor Relations department is available to provide any clarifications and answer any questions you may have. Thank you very much, and have a good day.

Marcopolo S.A. conference call has now ended. We thank you all for your participation and wish you a very nice week.