Marcopolo S.A. (POMO4) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Marcopolo's Q1 2025 Earnings Conference. Today's presentation will be led by CEO, Mr. André Armaganija; CFO and IRO, Mr. Pablo Motta; and Legal and Investor Relations Manager, Mr. Eduardo Willrich. Please note that the simultaneous interpretation tool is available on the platform. [Operator Instructions] This conference is being recorded and will be available for replay on the company's Investor Relations website at ri.marcopolo.com.br, along with a slide deck for today's presentation. [Operator Instructions] Before we begin, we'd like to remind you that all forward-looking statements made during this conference are based on Marcopolo's current expectations, beliefs and assumptions. These statements involve risks and uncertainties as they relate to future events and therefore, rely on circumstances that may or may not materialize. Investors, analysts, and journalists should be aware that a number of factors, including macroeconomic conditions, industry dynamics and other external variables, may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in these forward-looking statements. Now, to begin the presentation, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Pablo Motta. Mr. Motta, please go ahead.

Good morning, everyone. I'd like to thank you all for joining us for Marcopolo's first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Let's move on to Slide 4, where we begin with the highlights. In the quarter, Marcopolo posted strong revenue growth driven by international markets, with revenue from international operations up 68% and exports from Brazil up 86%. Net income reached BRL 243 million with a net margin of 14.5%. ROIC exceeded 26%. Let's go to the next slide. In the first quarter, Brazilian bus production rose 13.7% compared to Q1 2024 with a standout performance in the Microbus segment, which grew 46.3% in the quarter. This performance reinforces expectations among industry entities for volume growth in 2025 as compared to 2024. Over to the next slide. In the quarter, Marcopolo's production for the domestic market dropped 5%. Production for exports from Brazil rose by 18.1% and production at our international operations increased 31.6%. Production in the first quarter of 2025 was affected by collective vacations in Brazil from December 24, 2024, to December 12, 2025, which reduced the number of working days. As of March, we begin to see production return to normal levels. Over to the next slide. Net revenue for Q1 2025 reached BRL 1,677 million with a larger share coming from the Coach segment, especially deliveries related to foreign markets as well as from Microbus and Volare vehicle segments when compared to Q1 2024. The stability in net revenue reflects the company's seasonal pattern with a sales mix concentrated on lower value-added products, particularly in the Brazilian market. Over to the next slide. Consolidated gross profit for the first quarter of 2025 totaled BRL 384.3 million with a gross margin of 22.9%, the slight decline year-over-year reflects the sales mix in Brazil with lower value-added products and thinner margins in addition to seasonality and lower operational leverage. EBITDA came in at BRL 262 million with a margin of 15.6%. It's worth recalling that in Q1 2024, EBITDA had been positively impacted by BRL 29.5 million from equity income related to our Argentine-affiliate, Metalpar. That was due to monetary restatement of the balance sheet under hyperinflationary accounting rules. Adjusted for that effect, Q1 2024 EBITDA would have been BRL 285.9 million with a 17% margin. In Q1 2025, the company recovered from the negative impact of the real's depreciation against the U.S. dollar on the dollar-denominated order book recorded in Q4 2024, reporting a positive financial result of BRL 109.3 million. Now I'll hand it over to André, who will speak about the market environment and outlook for the rest of the year.

Good morning, everyone. Let me begin with the Coach segment, which was negatively affected by seasonality this quarter. In Q1 2025, 72% of coach bodies delivered were simply units, especially those used in charter services. In 2024, that same profile accounted for 48% of sales. Seasonality also impacted the Urban segment, with sales concentrated in lighter vehicles at the expense of articulated buses, for example. The highlight in this segment this quarter was the invoicing of 32 Attivi electric bus bodies for the city of Sao Paulo. The Microbus and Volare segments continue to perform well with deliveries of 523 micro buses and 169 Volare vehicles this quarter, under the coming of the Scholar Path to School program. On to the next slide. International operations were the highlight of Q1 2025. Marcopolo Australia maintained a strong pace of deliveries, revenue and profitability. Important sales were confirmed, and the order book is already full for the year, reinforcing the sustainability of results and optimism for 2025 following a record year in 2024. Marcopolo Argentina confirmed the recovery trend in volumes and results that began in Q4 2024 with good opportunities in the Coach segment, supported by macroeconomic improvements in the country. Marcopolo Mexico remains on a positive trajectory in line with the typical first quarter seasonal slowdown and signals volume growth from Q2 onward. Marcopolo South Africa also delivered positive results despite local market seasonality, with prospects for higher volumes and strong results in 2025. The Marcopolo China operation reversed its previous negative result, posting net income in Q1 2025 and maintaining a positive outlook for 2025, supported by volume growth compared to 2024. Over to the next slide. Seasonality defined the start of 2025 with lower production volumes due to the collective vacation in January and a higher share of lower value-added products in the Coach and Urban segments. Historically, Q1 is a period of high activity for coach customers, who aim to receive new vehicles throughout the year for use during end of year holidays, summer and school vacations and tend to resume bus orders after carnival. Given this customer seasonality, chassis manufacturers also take the opportunity to schedule collective vacations during the same period. Looking ahead to Q2, we are already seeing an improvement in the sales mix with a greater share of higher-value coaches and urban buses. The recovery in volumes and delivery of higher value-added vehicles will allow us to once again benefit from operating leverage with fixed cost dilution because of higher revenue as well as efficiency gains from better use of our existing workforce. With that, we can now move on to the Q&A session.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Mr. Gabriel Tinem with Santander.

I have 2 questions. The first one more focused on the Coach segment. I just wanted to hear a little bit more in the evolution of mix that you expect for 2025 more specifically, and also a bit more detail about what the portfolio looks like within this segment. I'd also like to hear about how the demand has been doing in that side. Also on the urban bus side, we see slightly lower volume than we had expected overall, and also we understand there's been some restriction in connection with the Sao Paulo market. So could you please tell us a little bit more about what's in your mind for 2025 on this segment?

Thank you for your question, Gabriel. With regard to the Coach segment, granted, the market is going back to the regular seasonality we've seen in previous years. Truth be told, in previous years, we saw the effect of previous years playing into their development. However, the regular or the natural way is for us to produce heavier vehicles at the end of the year because that's when suppliers will be moving our product, especially because of the end-of-year vacations. The good news is we're seeing a higher volume of passengers at the end of the year, which is also boosting demand for higher or larger vehicles. The domestic market experiences the seasonality to an even higher degree, and when we look at the market and see that movement of passengers as well as purchase intentions and the portfolio moving forward, we see the demand moving in the way that we've been discussing, seeing improvements in Q2 versus Q1 and also the same trend for Q3 and Q4. So in general, the market seems to be going back to its business-as-usual type sales, going toward the second half of the year. So what we saw is a growing demand in that segment. On the Urban side, Sao Paulo really is a market that delayed the fleet renovation trend. The Sao Paulo market is no longer buying diesel-powered buses and has decided that it's purchasing only electric vehicles. Of course, manufacturers have been adapting and can now supply that demand, but we're already seeing a few bottlenecks in recharged infrastructure, especially in Sao Paulo. So the delayed infrastructure improvement has also delayed the purchasing process on the client side. So what we're seeing is a larger share of electric vehicles coming out. We're already seeing a better volume of sales than last year, and we're also starting to see other decarbonization solutions being brought to the table precisely so that we can overcome the infrastructure bottleneck. So we're already speaking of gas-powered vehicles or hybrid solutions precisely so that the market can adjust to help accelerate the process of urban bus sales, but we're already seeing an improved mix starting in the next quarter.

Our next question comes from Ms. Fernanda Recchia with BTG.

We have 2 points we'd like to address. First of all, we'd like to explore Path to School a little bit. You mentioned improvements between Q1 and Q4 of next year, and in a way, that's slightly earlier than we were talking about, which was the beginning of next year. So I just wanted to understand whether there was any regulation or any news that led you to delay that process. And also, the volume we should expect, should that be between 4,000 to 5,000 as we expected before? That's point 1. And number 2, I'd like to go into profitability in 2025. I'd like to understand whether with that catch-up with demand starting in Q2, could we expect margins closer to what we had last year, thinking about the year as a whole, and what would be other leverages in terms of margin improvement in addition to a better mix? Those would be my 2 questions.

Good morning, Fernanda. Thank you for your questions. With regards to the Path to School program, in fact, the scenario is very similar to what we had been anticipating. We expected it to come out in early 2026 or late 2025. That scenario remains unchanged. The plan is the end of the procurement process that began in 2023 is supposed to end in November, so we expect the timeframe to really fit the previous schedule. As to volume, that's very difficult to predict. We really need to expect until the procurement documents come out so that we can project for that. Looking at the record of what's been produced and the side of the fleet, what we expect is purchases or procurement of at least 5,000 vehicles a year, but we expect volume to be even larger considering what the fleet currently looks like. But looking at the history that we have with this program, we should expect about 5,000 vehicles a year.

This is Pablo speaking. When it comes to profitability, we see that in Q1, in practice, we had lower revenue than we have been delivering because of the mixed issue, and our understanding is even though we are not working with any sort of guidance about future profitability, what we understand is in practice with the mix that's greater on the heavier side that's shaping up in 2025. The trend is for that to allow us to dilute that volume of expenses and consequently that we are able to deliver a profitability level that's close to what we've been projecting and in line with what we have in the last 12 months and allow us to also have a target of what's possible to deliver on the heavier side and also what we're seeing in the international market in terms of delivery and consistency in their results.

Our next question comes from Ms. Fernanda Urbano with XP.

2 questions. Both of them will be addressing the internal market. First, the profitability drivers are in place for the international market. So thinking about the international trend and the mix that's more toward the heavier side. I just wanted to understand what international operations you see running at a margin level that's sustainable? And how do you see that developing throughout the year? I'm thinking of the Argentine case, for example. So first about margins. And second, I wanted to understand your order book. You mentioned that Volgren in Australia already has closed its delivery book for the year, so if you could maybe address your order book for other major areas in the world, such as Argentina and Mexico? And how are you seeing your order list for the second quarter -- for the second half of the year?

Thank you for your questions, Fernando. So with regards to our international operations and our prospects when it comes to leverage, the scenario seems very positive so far. Looking at the market over the past 4 years. And you mentioned Volgren and Andre may give you more details about our order book and the situation with our other operations. But in practice, what we see is that we are more and more delivering results very much in line with the work that we did here in Brazil. We are being able to position our products very well. And now we are in a situation where we can also have a production volume that allows us better operational leverage in all our operations. So for example, Argentina, even in Australia, as you mentioned, and the issue we mentioned about Mexico, these are our 3 most important operations where, over the last few years, we saw demand go below what was necessary to keep our average age -- our average fleet age at the same level. And what we're now seeing is orders going up significantly. And this is if we look at previous years in Argentina during the Macri government, where exports were facilitated. We see that at that time, our Argentine operations essentially peaked. So a few years after that, with no major shakeups, we expect this market to drive our operations very strongly and possibly becoming the highlight for this year along the lines of what we saw in 2024 when we had Australia standing out above all the rest. The positive side of that is, this year, we won't see either one or the other standing out. We will see Argentina coming up very strongly, but the other operations also performing really well, which will substantially drive our overall result.

Adding to Pablo's response, Fernanda, remember when we used to talk about Australia having an order book more to the smaller side. And what we're seeing with the current order book for the year, which is essentially closed, a great volume for the year. That order book has closed early for Australia, which gives us bright prospects. In Argentina, as was said, a pent-up volume of deliveries that's very significant, maybe the largest in the world. And it's important to remember that this is a market where we sell our double-deckers, which is the highest value-added product that we have. And we have many orders being closed for the year. So we have also good prospects for the year at large. In Mexico's case, and this is something we mentioned, this is a country where seasonality is very similar to that of Brazil. But what we're seeing for Q2 and especially the second half of the year, a few coaches coming in and a few urban bus procurement processes we are also participating in. In South Africa, even though these are smaller operations, we've introduced a new product, the new generation of coaches that we did not have there yet, with the driver seat on the right-hand side. And after introducing this product, we believe that the urban bus sales will be positive. We've been maintaining positive sales, and we believe that this product will add even more to our sales volume. So we have some operations with the order book essentially closed, and in other places, still bright prospects for the year. And as we said, with the entire restructuring work that we've done, aside from the great volumes that we were seeing, all of that adds up to great prospects for the year.

Our next question comes from Mr. Gabriel Rezende with Itaú BBA.

I just wanted to follow up on the order book discussions, especially coming from Mexico. If you could maybe detail how far along or to what month can you already see your order book close, that would be perfect. And in addition to that, we saw a slight decline in your margins. I understand that part of that was due to the collective vacation until January 12. I just wanted to understand how we should think about this market share dynamics in the second half of the year. Should we expect a scenario coming back to normal with Marcopolo keeping pace with the industry or even outpacing it as we saw last year?

Thank you for your questions, Gabriel. When it comes to the Brazilian order book, we can see all -- order books for all segments closed until the end of August. That's how far along we can see. And also, considering traffic of passengers, we have prospects of increases quarter-by-quarter. As for the stoppages, we explained that during the release, we were idle for longer than our peers. So we had a smaller share than the competition. But yes, we do see growth and gradual recovery, especially in the Urban bus market, where part of our businesses are shutting down. So that should lead to the stabilization of our market share over the year. That's what we expect, a full order book until August and gradually closing those order books as well until the end of the year.

Our next question comes from Mr. Jonathan Koutras with JPMorgan.

Again, thinking about dividends, you have about 50% payout, and considering those devices that we're seeing across P&L, higher volumes, could you maybe look back at that? And is there room to maybe take that up to 60%, even 70%?

Thank you for your question, Jonathan. This is something we've already been addressing in our talks with investors. According to our policy, that has been approved by our Board, we are paying out between 40% and 50%. That's our current policy, and so far, there is no prospect of adjusting that either up or down. That's our current situation.

That concludes the Q&A session. I'll now hand it back to Mr. Pablo for the company's final remarks.

I'd like to thank, everyone, for joining, and say that we are at your service for any additional comments or to answer any additional questions via our Investor Relations channels. Thank you.

This concludes today's conference. Thank you all for joining, and have a great day. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]