Marcopolo S.A. (POMO4) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Marcopolo's Earnings Conference Call for the Fourth Quarter of 2024. The presentation and comments on the results will be delivered by Mr. André Armaganija, CEO; Pablo Motta, CFO; José Antonio Valiati, Investor Relations Officer; and Eduardo Willrich, Legal and Investor Relations Manager. We would like to highlight that the simultaneous translation tool is available on the platform. [Operator Instructions] This conference is being recorded and will be available on the Company's investor relations website, ri.marcopolo.com.br, along with the presentation here today. [Operator Instructions] Before proceeding, we would like to remind you that forward-looking statements are based on Marcopolo's management's beliefs and assumptions as well as information currently available to the company. These statements may involve risks and uncertainties as they relate to future events and therefore, depend on circumstances that may or may not occur. Investors, analysts and journalists should understand that events related to the macroeconomic environment, the industry and other factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. We will now begin the presentation by turning the call to Mr. Valiati. Mr. Valiati?

Good morning, everyone. We would like to thank you for joining us in our conference call to discuss the results of the fourth quarter '24. We are going to start on Slide 4, where we start with the highlights for the period. In the quarter, Marcopolo continued to show strong growth in revenues and results. EBITDA reached BRL 461 million, net income BRL 318 million and return on invested capital above 28%. Let's move on to the next slide. In 2024, the Brazilian bus production showed a growth of 22.7% compared to that of 2023, finally overcoming the mark pre-pandemic of 2019, but still not really considering the renewal of the fleet and the reduction of the fleet age. For 2025, the entities that are connected to the industry expect again to grow volumes at a more gradual pace than what we saw in '24. On the next slide. We show the fourth quarter 2024 Marcopolo's production for the domestic market, which grew 11.3%. Production for exports from Brazil had a drop of 8.7% and external units showed growth of 6.2% in production. In the fourth quarter, the company intensified its pace of production in the months of October and November with stabilization of production at higher levels. In December, the company granted collective vacations in the last week of the month, therefore, reducing the pace of production in the period. Let's now go to the next slide. Consolidated net revenues reached BRL 2.666 billion in the fourth quarter with a greater share in the Micros and Volares buses in the breakdown of revenues when compared to the fourth quarter 2023. The growth of 30% of net revenue reflects a better market scenario with expansion of volumes sold in the Brazilian market as well as in the whole international operations of the company. Now let's go to the next slide. Consolidated gross profit in the fourth quarter '24 reached BRL 659 million with margin of 24.7%. The growth of gross margin and gross profit reflects a better operational leverage with the growth in volume and revenues in the quarter as well as a better performance of our international operations. EBITDA was BRL 461 million in the quarter with margin of 17.3%. EBITDA was negatively affected nonrecurrently in BRL 16.8 million because of the complementation of provision related to the variable compensation of our employees in 2024. The year was marked by a huge expansion of records and targets. EBITDA was also adversely impacted by the results of New Flyer, our Canadian subsidiary, by BRL 7.3 million. Adjusted by the effects mentioned, the EBITDA in the fourth quarter 2024 would reach BRL 485 million with margin of 18.2%. In the quarter, the consolidated net profit was BRL 318.8 million with margin of 12%. In addition to the effects already mentioned, the company had a negative impact of almost BRL 50 million associated to the exchange rate variation because of the Brazilian real devaluation in the fourth quarter with the updating of our debt in dollars. Now I'm going to turn to André that is going to talk about the market scenario and also the outlook for the future.

Thank you, Valiati. I'm going to start with road buses that continue with a strong demand as we saw in 2024. In urban buses, we expect to have a recovery in '25 after a weak year of '24. Vehicles with higher added value as articulated models and electric models may be a highlight. Volares and Micros continue good performance with the delivery of 602 units of Micros -- altogether, sorry, 358 of Micros and 244 Volares. Again, this is because of the bid of 2023. International operations were the highlight for '24, gaining relevance in the contribution to their results by basically with the cultural transformation that we had in external units. For '25, Marcopolo Mexico should show a strong performance and gradual growth in volumes, especially with road buses because of the location of the G8 production. After a historical record in Australia in '24, the subsidiary expects to reduce volumes in '25. The operation should continue to show, however, stable margins and profitability. In South Africa, we project continued positive results in '25 after the production of G8 models. In Argentina, we have good prospects for '25 with a growing order book for road buses and a favorable economic environment and also a better macroeconomic scenario. The local operation should also benefit for a greater volume of exports that come from Brazil to that market. Now let's move on to the next slide. An order book that is consistent, really projects a same pace of production in '25 similar to what we had in the end of '24, obviously, respecting the collective vacation that we seasonally have in several operations of Marcopolo. This constant pace of production will enable us to align production and deliveries in a high-performance environment. Seeking more efficiency and productivity continues to be our greatest opportunity to improve results, and together with better leverage and also better performance of external units, we believe these are going to be our pillars of growth for '25. The year of '24 made us go past all our targets in terms of margins and results in a market that was much poorer in terms of volumes and historical production volumes. This was a paradigm of good performance, and we really exceeded our targets, therefore, renewing our challenges for '25. We want more. Now we are going to open for your questions.

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Andre Ferreira from Bradesco BBI.

Congratulations on your results. I have 2. First, I'd like to understand if you have seen the effect of higher interest rates in a deceleration of your orders, if you see an impact in your order book. And also, if you could comment on the size of your order book for domestic exports and external units. And the second question is that you say in the release that you are optimistic and you see an opportunity to increase exports in '25. If you could tell us about the demands of the different export markets for Marcopolo, that would be highly appreciated.

Thanks for the question, Andre. What we have seen today that we have a long, strong order portfolio, especially for road buses. We see in the segment and we are working to make our production more flexible to be able really to cater to the needs of this long order buses, especially with light road buses. And in urban buses, we start to see a movement, as I mentioned in my presentation, of heavier urban buses and opportunity for electric vehicles and some businesses with articulated buses that also have been showing a good order book, offsetting the production of light buses. And we have the Caminho da Escola program and still a lot to see in terms of volume for Micros and Volares. The movement of passengers was quite positive in the end of the year. We see most carriers, both domestic and international, had very interesting volumes. Of course, the interest rate is always to be paid attention to. But we have seen a movement in the road system vis-à-vis air traveling very good, which gives us a bit more comfort with regards to future demands. Exports also started at a very interesting level in terms of volumes. We have captive markets of ours that brought strong volumes and are giving us good signals for '25. Argentina is an important market for Marcopolo exports and is showing growth for 2025. Mexico also a very relevant market and we did close some important orders for the year. And other captive markets, especially in Latin America, that continue heated.

Our next question comes from Lucas Laghi from XP.

I have 2 questions that I would like to explore with you. First is the dynamics of profitability. We saw the EBITDA margin -- even adjusting for nonrecurrent volumes, we went from 17% to 18%. So a slight contraction compared to the previous quarter, but a higher pressure quarter-on-quarter in terms of raw materials in a market in which revenues in external markets grew a lot compared to the domestic market. So my question is to try and understand. If you could give us a bit of color here, raw materials in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. Any difference in unit prices that we are not really seeing if you think of the whole numbers. And also, if you could give us a bit of color of the difference of profitability between external and domestic markets. So if that was also a mix effect, given that the external market showed much higher growth than the domestic growth. And also, today, we see Marcopolo with low leverage levels. You're almost at 0 net debt-to-EBITDA ratio, if you think of the industrial debt. So the question is, what to do with cash generation that will probably continue strong in '25 given the outlook that you provided us? So my question is, are you thinking of interim dividends and increase of payout, any mapped projects where you want to allocate the capital? Or if you want to continue at this low leverage ratio close to net cash? So these 2 questions. And again, congratulations on your results.

Lucas, thanks for your questions. I will start by answering the deleveraging question, and then we are going to talk about profitability and raw materials. So deleveraging. Indeed, in terms of payout, we continue with the policies that we have approved with the Board of Directors that is 40% to 50% of the results of each year. And we do have the possibility of effectively performing with net cash, but we also have some internal projects that we are considering to be more competitive and sustainable. So in terms of compensation to shareholders, the policy continues. Now as for your first question in terms of profitability, yes, in the quarter, it is the mix, as you mentioned. It's basically the composition of our portfolio that we had in the quarter. We do not have, at least for now, identified any relevant inflationary actions that have brought an impact to our cost. We are in a scenario that the main commodities are at very competitive price levels. We had China kind of slowing down. You have steel that is a composition of our prices. But we have had stable prices. We are not having an impact in terms of inflationary pressure. But of course, we continue to monitor demand and working with our clients so that we can always try and pass on any price increases to our prices.

Lucas, this is Eduardo speaking. And this mix is also associated somehow because of the breakdown of revenues in the domestic market and international operations. International operations did have an important contribution in the fourth quarter. They should continue to show excellent performance. And because of the mix and the international context, they should be showing a slightly lower margin compared to what we have the domestic market and exports. So that shows a slight higher dilution, but stronger revenues as we saw in the fourth quarter.

We have the next question from Gabriel Tinem from Santander.

I have 2. The first is more related to The Path to School program. In '24, you delivered about 2,500 units. You had a reduction in the order book as a whole. But I would like to know more about '25. What do you expect for the year? Are the orders starting to pick up from the cities? So if you could give us some color. About EV, the second question, you said that the order book for '25 has evolved significantly. So I'd like to hear more about that. What do you see for the year? What should we expect?

The projection in terms of volumes is excellent. We had the turn from '24 to '25 with a very strong order portfolio, and we started the year with a very similar pace in terms of production and delivery of Caminho da Escola of what we had in the third and fourth quarters. And the pace should be continued along the year. So the idea is to think of the volume of '24 as the volume that is going to be distributed along the quarters of '25. So a bit more constant volume than what we saw last year, because last year we saw good volumes in the first quarter, then deceleration in the second and then pick up in the third and fourth. So we believe this is going to be more constant in '25. So a similar total volume, but a better distribution. And about EV, the positive side first, it's our product. We developed new products, very good performance in our tests, very good results in terms of energy consumption, energy efficiency. We see that some of the sales that we had last year that did well generate new sales opportunities, that is the case of Porto Alegre. We turned the year with cars still to be produced to Sao Paulo. And it's a natural growth. We knew EVs would take some time. Facilities are being built, especially in the city of Sao Paulo. Funding is more structured than it was before. We see signs from cities that want to place their orders. So if you think it's a project that started some time ago, funding is more structured, recharge stations are being implemented in regions, and our product is more mature. So we believe that movement of renewal that was projected for '23 and '24 is going to pick up for '25. So that's our understanding. Of course, we are going to see variations in the production. We are working on new projects. But we do see a more mature process for EVs and we believe that we are going to have good results, not only with the Marcopolo full bus, but also for our bodies for other electric brands. And this is happening. We are having very good sales for cities with different body solutions.

Our next question comes from André Mazini from Citi.

The first question is about New Flyer, the Canadian subsidiary that is a listed company. So if you could please tell me your idea for the future, if it is to keep your stake or monetize the volatility of the share has been huge at New Flyer. I don't know if this has more to do with markets in general or potential tariffs between countries or because of the operation per se. So how you see New Flyer and the stake for the future and the other about productivity at the plant. You always want to improve productivity. So if you could talk about initiatives to be developed. And if I'm not mistaken, you did hire some immigrants more recently. So if they are already fully trained or if there is still an important curve of productivity for this new labor to be felt in the plants.

Thanks for your question. Talking a bit about New Flyer. New Flyer effectively has been an investment that within our strategy was very much important way in the beginning when we started in 2013 when we wanted more synergy and a long time, this is a market that changed, but that we have been monitoring from close. And what we can share, thinking of public information of the company and what they have been disclosing is that the company went through a restructuring process. This restructuring did have an impact with their operations, but also with their financials. And we see that especially along the last 2, 3 years, the company had a very relevant position in the market. This is a market in which it is leader today. And in the last 2 years, it did build a very interesting order book. So what we see today is an operation with a good backlog that was able to work with the building of its order book and prices. And now it has challenges to effectively make the ramp-up become real with delivery of products. It did have a bit of a hiccup last year with the delivery of components, especially with the [ biometh ] product in the United States. But what we see is that the potential for the company to generate cash is quite interesting. And today, we are following their stock. We still do not have a finalized position in terms of leaving the company, but we do not want to leave the stock before having the possibility of results materializing. So we are monitoring that. We have a very close contact with them. And we think we should enjoy this moment in terms of generation of orders that will bring good results in line, very similar to what Marcopolo experienced from 2020 to today in terms of growth and delivery of value. As for the industrial value, thanks for your question. It is, yes, certainly an opportunity of growth for Marcopolo, improving efficiency. We are training more and more of our people. Remember that right after the pandemic, we downsized, then we started with new hires and some dismissals, but we believe that we have a more stabilized personnel, a training team that is very much connected to the industrial and human resources area for the training of people. We have investing in plants -- and part of our investments is to reduce any bottlenecks that we might have in production. We are expanding productions in São Mateus. And so we have investment to help with training. And we have some internal actions. We had some organizational changes to promote our program of operational efficiency and the lean philosophy. And the idea is really to use some of these concepts to deliver better results. And immigrants are part of our group of employees. They also go through very good training, and we have shown a positive evolution. So simply speaking, not to go on too much, training, investments and also resuming some topics on operational efficiency, all to make our company even more prepared for market needs and plant flexibility. We are working on that so that our plants can adapt to market needs, delivering the best efficiency possible.

Our next question comes from Gabriel Rezende from Itaú BBA.

André, Pablo, Valiati, Eduardo. We have 2 questions from Itaú. If you could comment on your SG&A dynamics. These were some lines that drew our attention and did pressure a bit to your EBITDA margins. And we saw a mismatch, especially if you have the quarter-on-quarter comparison. In your comments, you talked about variable compensation, but how should we consider these lines in the coming quarters? And what is the seasonality of this line of variable compensation for the future? And the second question, if you could talk about the competitive environment, especially in the domestic market. How do you feel the competitors are behaving? The industry is heated, prices are -- costs are being passed on to prices. So we see a healthy environment. Do you see any trend in terms of increased capacity or anything along those lines?

Okay. Gabriel, thanks for your questions. First, about variable compensation. We had a historical year in Marcopolo. Not only did we turn 75 years old, but we anticipated a future view of net income that was in our strategic plan. That was an interesting challenge because even with the reduction of The Path to School program and the not sale of EVs that were forecasted in our budget, we did offset that with hard work and engagement and commitment of the whole team. And so we delivered a year that was 50% better than last year, overcoming barriers. And therefore, we did see an opportunity to recognize the work of the team for such a special and different years from the years before. So you get a net income of this year and the increase was more than twofold the average net -- historical net income of Marcopolo. For the future, we do have a compensation policy with targets that are more and more aggressive in terms of growth. If we do exceed targets, we have to recognize the operation, but we are very much focused more and more of being aggressive in growth targets. And if they are exceeded, we do have to recognize that, but a very clear and defined policy along those lines. As for the competitive environment, we do not see relevant growth in terms of increased capacity in our competition. One of our competitors did announce an increase of capacity of 20%, but that's certainly through gains of efficiency. And we do not see -- for some players, for instance, that did talk about increased capacity or increased deliveries, we do not see them reaching the numbers. One of the reasons is certainly skilled labor. This is very relevant in the industry. So when you look at Marcopolo and what we are doing in terms of training people and also investing in our facilities, we see that we have a very important positioning with regards of the market to come. But as we do not see a peak of growth, Gabriel, in the industry, we are seeing gradual pickup of the market. We do not see an incentive to any competitors or to ourselves of making huge investments to increase capacity. It is really a matter of extracting more efficiency, investing and having gradual growth. And that enables us to have a very good composition between supply and demand, and that has enabled us to have the positioning we have been having.

Just a follow-up, perhaps with regards to SG&A. Should we expect, if everything stays constant, an improvement in this line for the first quarter of '25? Because you classified it as nonrecurrent in the fourth quarter. So we should not have that impacting the first quarter of '25.

Yes, Gabriel. What's important to say is that here, we are always working with a scenario that we have the leverage of this line. And year-on-year, we are better leveraging the operation. And therefore, it has less representativity in '24 than it had in '23. And this is all for us not to have just a focus on a single quarter. And remember that Marcopolo will always try to recognize its employees as results are excelled. So indeed, we do not give any guidance in the market, but we are very much focused on good returns for our business.

Our next question comes from Marcelo Motta from JPMorgan.

I also have 2 questions. First, if you could talk about what you're expecting in terms of capital expenditure. You're talking about BRL 350 million a year that should be what you should invest in '25. So how do you see the breakdown of this investment? And second, you talked about rebound in the end of last year. When you think of CapEx, you think of M&A, should we expect you to buy engineering technology? Was it something more of a one-off operation? Or should we see more of these operations, especially in this strategic area of engineering?

Hi, Marcelo. Thanks for your question. In terms of CapEx, we continue as is. I would say that Marcopolo has a strategic wish for the next 5 years to really be well structured. Much of our focus is to try to have more and more innovative projects. And as we did in G8, we brought a lot of embarked technology and many attributes of value to passengers and carriers. So that really was part of all our turnaround project. So what we see for '25 is a year we have this BRL 350 million. We have been sharing the number with you and much of it connected to the same attributes that we mentioned. We are talking about tooling and molding and some facility improvements that are important for the project. Also, we should be including the modernization of some of our plants. Again, to improve productivity as we have been mentioning to you in last calls. As for strategic acquisitions or M&A operations, I think that when you consider this strategic rationale that is quite well structured in terms of what steps we want to take for the coming years, Marcopolo is very much doing its homework and thinking of opportunities for complementation. And the case of Reborn was precisely that, an operation in which we identified an opportunity to create synergies with a company that have really very qualified labor that can accelerate our development process and to bring new solutions to the market. So when we think of M&A, right now, we are identifying much more the capacity to speed up internal developments so that we can add further value to the generation of revenues in the next years. And remember, we are looking at different solutions connected to decarbonization on our day-to-day as Marcopolo is present in several markets and decarbonization options are different in different regions and countries. It's very important for us to diversify sometimes working with traditional partners like we do with the bodies but also looking into different solutions, like we announced the hybrid solution that was shown in a recent trade show with our hybrid Volare. So for the decarbonization process, we have to bring information to the company, and that's what Pablo mentioned in terms of our program for the future.

Our next question comes from Victor Mizusaki from Bradesco BBI.

Congratulations on your results. We have 2 questions. The first, with regards to The Path to School program, we have been hearing the possibility of the government starting a tender midyear. Do you think it makes sense to have a bidding process for '25 for deliveries perhaps in the end of the year or '24? And the second question. If you are in the backlog, you mentioned in the release that it was a higher volume than '24. And just to coordinate the volume. In '24, looking at the [indiscernible] volume, you're talking about approximately 10 units. But I think that's the only asset. If you could confirm for '25 -- for '24, the amount of EVs that you had.

Thanks, Victor. Thanks for your questions. As for The Path to School program, it could happen in the second half of '25 at some point. We have a very precise volume, more than 5 units with potential delivery for '23. With extension, it could be for '26. But that would be a movement of inventory related for the next process, and for us to have the end of the '23 process with the new program. So for things to work, it's a movement that should start today, especially -- so this first half of '25. EVs, the portfolio has a larger volume than 10 units. As you mentioned, we are at a faster pace of production. We have units that are ready to be delivered and -- both the full vehicle chassis and body and the body alone. So we have better portfolio than we had in the past, and we expect to show that to you in the coming months, a growing volume. In the context of Marcopolo, it's still low volumes. If you think of the 15,000 buses that we produce, it's still a small volume, but it shows that traction is picking up and that this is a business that is going to grow consistently in the future.

The Q&A session is now closed. We would like to turn the floor back to Mr. Valiati for his final considerations.

We thank you very much for joining us in this conference call. We would like to inform you that the IR department is available to provide any further clarifications. We wish you a very good day. Thank you very much.

The conference call is now closed. We thank you very much for your attendance, and wish you a good day. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]