Marley Spoon SE (MMM) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Q2 2023 Earnings Call of Marley Spoon. [Operator Instructions]. It is my pleasure, and I would now like to turn the conference over to Fabian Siegel, Founder and CEO. Please go ahead, sir.

Yes. Thank you, and welcome to our investor call. My name is Fabian Siegel, Founder and CEO of Marley Spoon. And I have with me here today, Jennifer Bernstein, our CFO. Earlier today, we released our second quarter results of calendar year 2023, and we're looking forward to presenting you those results today as well as providing you with an update on the business. We also published an investor presentation, which we will refer during our call today. And at the end, as usual, we will open the line for your questions. Let's start with Slide 3. I started Marley Spoon in 2014 in order to bring delightful, market-fresh and easy cooking back to the people. We believe that a home-cooked meal at the end of the day is an important contribution to couples and family's healthy lifestyle. Before [indiscernible] cooking required a considerable amount of time and effort by consumers to come up with weekly changing menu plans and to spend the required time for in-store shopping. And that most consumers would rather cook the same things over and over again. Since we launched and introduced the key changing menus in the meal kit, our customers have enjoyed the convenience of simply selecting what they would like to cook out of an ever-increasing range of menus and then enjoy the convenience of getting everything delivered at home. And the best thing of it, it does not cost more than cooking with a supermarket as recent supply chain avoids a significant amount of food base that supermarkets supply chain produce, saving money in the environment at the same time. Now moving on to Slide 4. Over the years, our business grew rapidly. While COVID boosted sales in 2020, the business has continued to grow further since. In 2022, our strategy evolved, prioritizing profitability of the group in the second half, which led us to reduce our marketing investments and allowed us to improve operating EBITDA leading to profitable Q4 2022. This reduction in marketing was expected to have a flow-through effect on this year's growth trajectory. However, 2023 turned out to have an additional impact on revenue growth. In 2023, we experienced, for the first time, the business cycle of reduced consumer confidence and purchasing power on our business model. We see customers reduce their order efficiency and we have seen lower conversion rates for our new customers as customer's willingness to purchase was adversely impacted. Those impacts are not just felt by our business model, but also other e-commerce categories and also offline consumer spending categories seemed to be adversely impacted. While future revenue declined year-over-year, we have seen enough stabilization across the past few quarters. Despite the reduction in revenue, we improved profitability significantly year-on-year, delivering positive operating EBITDA for the quarter. Moving on to Slide 5. To summarize the first half of 2023, the business showed strong operational improvement and improvement of profitability year-on-year despite the softer revenue. The reduction in order frequency and new customer additions was partly compensated by improvement in average order value driven by incremental product offerings such as our market premium recipes and recipe customization options. Overall, quarterly revenue decreased to EUR 86 million, a reduction of 17% versus the PCP in constant currency and 6% compared to the prior quarter. Despite this reduction in scale, contribution margin increased by 4.8 points versus the prior period to 31.8%, driven by various operational improvements and process efficiency and quality. Furthermore, we had already started the cost-out program at the beginning of the year as the revenue outlook softened. This initiative already yielded results in the second quarter allowing us to improve operating EBITDA with all regions and central operations contributing. As we look towards the second half of this year, we will focus on driving revenue growth while maintaining cost discipline. We have numerous initiatives underway, which we will believe improve customer lifetime value. At the same time, we expect to continuously invest into marketing activities while appealing to our unit economic guard rails of six-month payback and through its return of [indiscernible] customer lifetime. As you can see on Slide 6, our revenue is increasingly driven by long-term customers with 79% of all revenue in the first half coming from orders [indiscernible] higher. This number is up by 3 points for the PCP. The increasing share of our existing customer base is due to the extreme longevity of our customer cohort with our loyal customers staying with us for many years. As you can see here, many of our customers, which bought for the first time in 2018 are still relying on us today to help them cook for their families. However, as shown on Slide 7, our decision to reduce our marketing spend in 2022 has had an impact on our subscriber growth. In addition to this expected effect, customers acquired in Q1 2023 showed lower initial retention. This was a result of our increased use of marketing discounts to conquer lower conversion rate as reported earlier this year. While we were able to improve conversion rates and generate the expected scale of subscribers at the end of Q1, initial customer retention data was worse than the prior period and made us adjust our marketing approach in Q2 again. This adjustment in our marketing approach has already shown improvement in early retention towards the end of quarter and we expect further improvement over the next month. In regards to Q2, we ended up spending 29% less on marketing compared to the PCP, which also adversely impacted subscriber growth. Now this effect was partly compensated by an increase in average order value, as you can see on Slide 8. Average order value increased 12% in constant currency, benefiting from several revenue-enhancing activities in addition to price increases taken in 2022. This includes an increase in the number of milestones market-leading core recipe offerings and subsequently higher average amount of meals to order compared to the PCP, continued strong adoption of our company's premium recipe offerings, the company's market initiatives that offer customers more than 100 additional add-on grocery items and the newly launched recipe variants offering, which allows customization of selected recipes by switching protein, upgrading proteins or switching other ingredients. Moving on to Slide 9 for an overview of our financial performance in Q2 and H1 2023. While the business contracted year-on-year in the first half, we significantly improved contribution margin, operating EBITDA and operating cash flow and delivered a profitable Q2 on an operating EBITDA level. Compared to the prior year, we improved our cash balance and reduced our net debt. With this overview, I would like to hand over to Jennifer, who will walk us through the P&L and balance sheet in more detail as well as provide an updated outlook for 2023.

Thanks, Fabian. Turning to Slide 11 to look at the P&L in more detail, you can see that the main driver of the revenue decline was a decrease in orders, which the increase in average order value could not offset. And while we were lapping 34% net revenue growth in Half 1 2022 versus the PCP, order frequency was down year-over-year in the first half of this year, even if consumers are putting more into their boxes. Positively, we are seeing stickiness with our premium recipe and market options, which contributed approximately 1/3 of the total 10% increase in average order value for the first half with pricing comprising the rest. We are proud of our contribution margin story seen on Slide 12. We have generally been operating within a fairly stable band of 29% contribution margin on a full year basis since 2020 with expansion limited by the various macroeconomic factors and internal operational issues that we have been experiencing before the back half of last year. In 2021, as many companies experienced, we were impacted by labor shortages, supply chain challenges, and frankly, some growing hands as we adapted to our new scale. We brought a new operational talent, for example, our current U.S. CEO, to help turn things around, but then got hit with global inflation in 2022 combined with some operational challenges in Europe. We managed to partially offset the impact of inflation with pricing in Half 2 2022. But as you can see on Slide 13, operational efficiencies are now a significant contributor to our margin improvement. These efficiencies cut across all areas of operations from food to logistics and in all regions. We are delivering better on time and with fewer mistakes. We're planning the menus that customers love, but with food costs always in mind. We're optimizing box sizes and ice usage, reducing materials and trucks on the process and are always pivoting with agility to new and better carriers. We continue to see the benefits of integrating Chefgood into the meal kit business with logistics, carrier and food supplier changes bringing savings to that brand. All of this helped us deliver contribution margin that was nearly 5 percentage points better than the prior year. Scale has played a role in our marketing expenses over time as well that you can see on Slide 13. Factoring out 2020, which was an outlier year due to the pandemic, we're becoming more efficient over time as we decreased our marketing spend as a percent of net revenue. As Fabian mentioned, the market for customer acquisitions was challenging in the first quarter, such that we revised our acquisition strategy in Q2, leading to subsequent cuts in our marketing expenditures. But equally, we are always focused on optimizing our media buying, testing new channels and targeting different segments within the business, including new delivery customers, referrals and reactivated customers. We also endeavor to apply financial discipline to our marketing spend. We've been unit -- using our unit economics framework to curtail spend at times as was the case in this quarter. The same financial discipline is being applied to our fixed cost base, as seen on Slide 15. While we ramped up G&A spend in recent years to bring in the right infrastructure and operational bench strength aligns to our scale, we're now focused on rightsizing the business and streamlining costs with a focus on efficiency and automation. In Q1 of this year, we introduced a cost-cutting program, which realized significant savings already in Q2. Some onetime charges associated with that program, such as severance cost, as well as transaction fees booked in connection with our recent business combination agreement are included in our G&A number, but factoring out those nonrecurring items, our G&A declined in Half 1 this year by 7% versus the PCP and by 13% versus the second half of last year. What this adds up on Slide 16 is a business that despite the top line declines this year is trending positively with our core metrics, net revenue, contribution margin and operating EBITDA much better than historical levels. Turning now to a deep dive by region. You see the U.S. performance on Slide 17 is a somewhat mixed bag. Revenue was down 24% in the quarter and minus 18% for the first half versus the PCP. Slower conversions, reduced marketing investment and consumers' budget concerns, particularly on our more value-oriented brand, Dinnerly, contributed to the net revenue decline. However, the strong operational improvements previously referenced were most pronounced in the U.S., which improved contribution margin in the quarter by 7 points versus the PCP to 34%. The margin, combined with fixed cost discipline, led to another consecutive quarter of positive operating EBITDA results of nearly EUR 5 million. On Slide 18, you see that Australia similarly had net revenue decline, but to a lesser extent than the U.S. with Q2 and Half 1 2023 declining 5% and 3% in constant currency, respectively. Reduced marketing investment was a contributing factor, though Chefgood growth helped offset lower meal kit sales. Operationally, Australia also delivered margin expansion with contribution margin improving 1 percentage point in Q2 versus the PCP to 31%, while operating contribution margin, defined as contribution margin excluding the impact of marketing vouchers and fixed costs such as expenses relating to site leases, expanded approximately 2.5 points to 41% owing to an improved supply chain. This led Australia to also deliver a positive operating EBITDA quarter of EUR 3 million. Finally, looking at Europe on Slide 19. Net revenue declined 34% in Q2 versus the PCP, with the low levels of consumer confidence and budget concerns in the face of macroeconomic conditions, reduced impact of subscribers and order frequency. Offsetting items of premium and express recipes did help increase average order value and meals per order, but not enough to mitigate the decline in orders, which led to the net revenue decline. However, contribution margin improved significantly in Q2 by 6 percentage points versus the PCP to 23%, helping deliver an improved operating EBITDA result of negative EUR 800,000, EUR 1.5 million better than the PCP. On Slide 20, we show an overview of planned CapEx spend for the full year. As previously shared, we expect to invest less in 2023 than in previous years with the focus having shifted from capacity investments to spend against efficiency and automation as well as some maintenance CapEx. In Australia, we are expected to move soon into a more permanent fulfillment center in the western part of the country in Perth. The current facility was always viewed as an interim solution. And now with the move, which will be in part funded by the facilities' landlords, we should realize more efficient operations and lower rent costs per square meter. We continued to invest in our digital assets and product development as well, with a particular focus on customer retention and lifetime value-generating activities. The company's net debt position can be viewed on Slide 21. With the EUR 35 million in proceeds from the capital raise associated with the recent business combination agreement with 468 SPAC II, we reduced our net debt to approximately EUR 45 million at the end of June. That does not consider the additional EUR 10 million of nonredeemed fund that sit in the SPAC, which is now renamed Marley Spoon Group SE and which will eventually be available to the Marley Spoon operating business. I would also like to note that from the EUR 35 million capital raise, approximately EUR 8 million have been used this month to prepay a portion of our outstanding loan balance to Runway Growth Capital, subsequently decreasing our cash interest rate from 8.5% to 7.5% over the 3 months over. Finally, I would like to turn to guidance on Slide 22. Due to the unusually challenging consumer environment and the impact of the first half net revenue performance on the balance of the year, we have revised our net revenue guidance from a single-digit net revenue decline versus the PCP to a broadened range of high single-digit to low double-digit percent net revenue decline versus the PCP. We affirm our margin guidance and continue to expect to expand contribution margin to between 30% and 32%. But owing to the softer net revenue, we revised our full year 2023 operating EBITDA from full year positive to in line with or better than full year 2022. With this, I would like to turn it back over to Fabian.

Thank you, Jennifer. Slide 24 shows our growth journey stage. 2023 would be a transition year during which the business will not grow due to the changed emphasis on profitability over growth as well as the economic cycle that our business is experiencing. However, we see the overall growth trajectory of impact. Please move to Slide 25. Marley Spoon meal kits and ready-to-eat meals are part of the grocery consumer category, globally a $7 trillion category and by far, the other largest consumer categories out there. At the same time, studies show that only a small part of this category have adopted online shopping, far less compared to other consumer portfolio. Studies suggest that over the next years more consumers will adopt online shopping for groceries, which will also lead to an expected 13% CAGR growth of the online meal kit and ready-to-eat meal categories. We share the view and expect our business to continue to grow as the current consumer business cycle comes to an end and overall consumer spending improves. Please move to Slide 26 for the summary of today's call. While revenue has declined year-on-year, we have seen a stabilization over the past quarters. At the same time, we see the long-term growth trajectory impact with 2023 being a transition year. [Despite the revenue softness ], we have significantly improved our contribution margin and we are well underway to improve our cost bases as we leverage automation through software, big data and AI and at the same time, continue our service centralization in our global shared service center in Portugal. These efforts have led already to operating EBITDA profitability for Q2 2023, an improvement over the prior year. At the same time, we had to adjust our operating EBITDA outlook for the full year as a result of the softer revenues. Going forward, our strategy is to continue the execution of our growth strategy within our financial means. Our ambition remains to grow our business towards EUR 1 billion in revenue over the coming years. We aspire to achieve this by continuing our investments in organic growth at attractive unit economics in order to expand our subscriber base. At the same time, we continue to invest in improving customer lifetime value by improving our product value proposition and product offering. Furthermore, we have identified ready-to-eat meals as a growth opportunity that we're going to pursue also outside of Australia. Finally, we will explore additional inorganic growth opportunities to generate more key benefit and improve shareholder value. Thank you for taking the time this morning. And with that, I'd now like to open the call to questions.

[Operator Instructions] It seems to be no questions for today, and I will hand back to Fabian Siegel for closing comments.

Yes. Thanks again, everybody, for joining. I just quickly like to alert you to an upcoming fireside chat this afternoon with Berenberg. And then next week, I'm looking forward to connect to many of you as we start our virtual roadshows. Thanks, again, for joining today, and we'll be in touch shortly. Thanks, everybody.

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephones. Thank you very much for joining and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.