Mavi Giyim Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (MAVI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Mavi webcast regarding the financial results for the financial year 2023. Our CEO, Cuneyt Yavuz, will be presenting the results, followed by Q&A session. We would like to inform you that this presentation is being recorded and we kindly ask you to keep your microphone muted throughout the presentation. Now I will leave the floor to Cuneyt Yavuz.

Thank you, Duygu. Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining our webcast for the financial results of the financial year of 2023. As you all know, personal to the Capital Markets Board of Turkey's decision on December 28, our 2023 annual financial statements were prepared in accordance with IAS29 inflationary accounting provisions. Accordingly, this presentation on the financial results mainly contain the company's audited financial information, prepared according to Turkish Financial Reporting Standards by application of IAS29 inflation accounting provisions. In addition to this, to enable investors and analysts to conduct a full-fledged analysis, supplementary historical information for selected key performance indicators used in prior periods' investor presentations are also provided. Please note that such supplementary information is made available only for information purposes and our unaudited data prepared for management reporting. Before I start, I would like to say a few words about my team. Our hard work delivered strong financial results in 2023. Our commitment as a responsible brand to our employees, customers, business partners and community remains steadfast throughout the year. Recognizing the increasing importance of prudent risk management, and data-driven decision-making in today's landscape, we kept our strategic focus on sustainable, profitable growth and long-term goals. I extend my gratitude to my dedicated team, invaluable business partners, investors and of course, loyal customers for their contribution to Mavi's continued success. Let's start with the business overview of 2023. We closed the year with 25% consolidated revenue growth, according to inflation adjusted results. Throughout 2023, we remain focused on doing what we do best: introducing denim innovations and newness in lifestyle products to offer collections appealing to diverse customers' consumer tastes. Capturing growth in both volume and value across all product categories, including denim and non-denim, we sold 4 million pairs of jeans worldwide in '23, by the way, with a year-on-year increase of 12%. Our robust balance sheet structure bolstered by a flexible supply chain, precise planning and diligent inventory and cash management contributed to our efforts to maintain our already strong gross margin levels. Through the effective cost management, we delivered 70 bps improvement in OpEx to sales ratio. We continue to generate significant cash from our operations and our net cash position increased to TRY 3.662 billion as of year-end. With such successful results, our Board of Directors decided to propose to the AGM, the cash distribution of 30% of the pre-IAS29 profit. This coincides to 49% of total reported distributable profit. Our decision to issue 100% bonus shares was approved by the Capital Markets Board yesterday and will be issued as soon as possible. In Turkiye, consumer demand was high for most of the year, and hence, we captured strong volume growth in all categories. As a result, we expanded our market shares across women's, men's and denim categories, solidifying our position as a leader in the industry. Inflation-adjusted like-for-like sales growth realized at 31%, driven by both transaction and basket size growth. Women's share in total sales increased to 37% of total Turkiye sales and non-denim product share increased to 62% of total Turkiye retail sales. In addition to increasing the shopping frequency and basket size, we grew our customer base to 9.2 million people, including 6.9 million active users through strategic engagement with prospective customer segments. With our app installed on 5.7 million mobile devices, we surpassed our goal of acquiring 1 million new customers annually, welcoming 1.3 million new members. The demographic profile of our new customers with 70% under 35 and 37% under 25 demonstrates that the younger audiences are a key driver of Mavi's growth. Leveraging personalized approaches, brand partnerships, strong communications and data-driven methodologies allows us to cater to customers of all ages, sizes, clothing preferences and lifestyles. The international sales recorded 4% constant currency growth in the year. In 2023, both top line and margins of international operations was pressured due to macro-related demand weaknesses in most of our international markets. There were also technical issues related to marketplace operations in Europe and business disruptions in a couple of wholesale customers in the last quarter, which was heavily reflected on results. Online continued to be the best-performing channel in international markets with growth mainly driven by mavi.com. On Slide 6 and 7, we want to reiterate our strategic priorities that are the building blocks of our journey into the future. Our brand is our most important asset and it is at the heart of all our endeavors. Our topmost aim is to continue gaining market share and grow with new customers. We are increasing customer frequency by focusing on different customer segments with fresh products. In line with the right quality, right product and right pricing strategy, customer demand is closely monitored. On the other hand, we focus on elevating the brand positioning with premium product segments. In line with this approach, we launched many special collections to present a total look in 2023 such as Mavi Lux Black, Mavi Icon, Mavi Studio, Mavi 100 and Alphabet collections. Casual lifestyle offering is expanded with logo, sweatshirt and Maviterranean collections. Aspirational marketing and strong customer engagement is captured through celebrity campaigns and influencers. Collaborative collections with brands such as Mavi Semt and Marche were effective in acquiring new and young customers and driving our traffic. In 2023, we further solidified our status as a trust brand. Our recognition as Turkey's most trusted brands, according to our future broad survey in 2023, serves as a great motivator for us, and it is a reminder of our commitment to ensuring customer trust and satisfaction. In 2023, one of our focus areas was improving customer experience. ‘En Mutlu Mavi Musterisi, the happiest Mavi customer is always at the center of our operations, and we are continuously striving to make sure their shopping experience with Mavi is better every day. The physical store experience is enhanced to future Mavi's growing lifestyle categories. Product availability is improved in order to increase conversion and stock turn rates by analyzing store clusters. We are working on a new service model and visual merchandising, which will be effective in improving shopping experience. Our CX project was initiated to address touch points with new and loyal customers and life cycles. This year, we probably started video conference call center service to enhance our inclusiveness in our customer communication. As we are dedicated to creating the happiest Mavi customers by offering the best shopping experience, both in-store and online, we continue to expand our omnichannel applications for ultimate customer satisfaction. We launched in-store sales this year that allows all Mavi stores to sell online inventory. As a result, we are experiencing significant incremental sales with improved stock availability, higher conversion and better customer experience. Since last year, we have a 2-hour doorstep delivery service offered in 4 major cities in Turkiye. Mavi.com has become more scalable and faster with Sap CX Commerce migration. On the other hand, mavi.com, Turkey is now expanding to new countries in GCC and Europe. Meanwhile, we are expanding stores with a new retail concept that is improving off-line shopping experience. We are adapting new hardware and software solutions to facilitate faster checkout processing stores and continuously invest on our people to increase unit per transaction and conversion in stores. Apart from our online business investments, digitalization and CRM are at the core of our strategy. New CRM segment analysis tools are enabling marketing and category teams to better understand different customer groups and design effective campaigns and communication. AI-driven analysis tools are developed to understand and respond to customer and market expectations. Data analytics investments were accelerated to increase market know-how and planning efficiency. We continue to make strides in our sustainability journey with our All Blue strategy, focused on people, planet, community and denim. With our climate change and water security reporting, we became the first and only Turkish apparel company to make the A list of CDP, the world's largest environmental disclosure platform with a AA score. We joined the CEO of Water Mandate in 2023 and once again won the Best Sustainable Collection award for the fifth time at the Rivet x Project Awards. The share of sustainable All Blue collection revenues rose to 25% with All Blue denim sales accounting for 51% of our total denim sales. The last but one of the most important building block for our future is our people. We are a very young company in the sense that 80% of our employees are under the age of 30. This puts a lot of responsibility on our shoulders to create a great work environment and open career paths for our employees. We support global and internal mobility to foster career opportunities. Embracing a people-oriented culture, we are fully committed to inclusiveness and diversity. Being a part of the UN Target Gender Equality Program, we are providing company-wide gender quality training programs. We are a part of UN WEPs program and are focusing our social project on women and youth empowerment. Our initiative to train future leaders, Mavi NextGen, is successfully in its second year. Now let's look at Turkiye [indiscernible] 2023 results and move on to Slide 9. Before we begin, I would like to remind you once again that the consolidated figures in this presentation will be including the application of IAS29 inflation accounting provisions, unless otherwise stated. We will be providing some sales breakdowns and fourth quarter results pre-IAS29 for information and comparison purposes. Our consolidated sales reached TRY 26.293 billion in 2023, growing 25% year-on-year. Specifically, Turkiye retail sales grew 31% and Turkiye online sales grew 26%. Our EBITDA realized TRY 4.991 billion, resulting with an EBITDA margin of 19%. Our net income realized TRY 1.757 billion as a result of IAS29 provisions. With 1.3 million new customers, Turkiye active loyal card members reached 6.9 million. As of year-end, we are operating for 471 monobrand stores globally. Moving on to review our channel performance on Slide 10. In order to provide comparable information with previous quarters, these charts reflect pre-IAS29 figures. In 2023, total revenue consisted of 68% retail, 22% wholesale and 10% e-com sales. With continuous robust performance, Turkiye sales now reached 88% of total consolidated revenue. The inflationary environment in Turkiye drove strong consumer demand, and we made sure we have the newness, the variety and the right price to respond to this demand and remain consumers' brand of choice. Our sales in Turkiye grew 93% in the last quarter, bringing the full year pre-IAS29 growth to 101%. The growth was similarly strong in all sales channels. International revenue in constant currency contracted 8% in the last quarter with some wholesale customers seizing operations in North America and a temporary disruption of marketplace sales in Europe due to some technical issues. There was a market-driven demand weakness in all international markets in 2023, resulting with full year international sales growth of 4% constant currency. It is important to note that direct-to-consumer online is the strongest channel internationally and is resilient to slowdown in demand. Let's look into our Turkiye retail business in more detail. In 2023, we opened 12 stores, closed 5 stores and expanded 5 stores, adding 4% to our total selling space. As of year-end, we are operating 336 stores with an average size of 590 square meters. On Slide 14, let's elaborate on the like-for-like store platforms. Traffic growth of 7% in 2023 on top of a very strong base, displays the strong consumer demand in the year. Like-for-like sales grew 100%, pre-IAS29 and 31%, including IAS29 provisions in 2023. This strong performance was driven by 17% transaction growth and a very healthy 12% inflation-adjusted basket size groups. Right product mix, newness in offering and dynamic pricing strategy enabled basket size growth beyond inflation. As you know, our priority target is volume growth. We are happy to report 18.5% volume growth in 2023. Moving on to Slide 15 to review category-based developments in Turkiye retail. We continue to trade strong growth across all product categories, both in price and volume. In 2023, denim sales grew 94% pre-IAS29 and now constitutes 38% of total Turkiye retail sales. We are constantly enriching our product range, specifically in casual lifestyle categories. Mixed business constituting of T-shirts, sweat shirt and jersey offerings grew 100% pre-IAS29 year-on-year and make up 27% of our retail sales. Non-denim bottoms grew 137%, shirts grew 103%, accessories grew 89% and jackets grew 90% pre-IAS29 in 2023. Going forward to review our online sales performance on Page 17. In 2023, our direct-to-consumer e-commerce sales share in total consolidated revenue is 10% whereas including the wholesale e-com, total online sales is 11.7% of total consolidated revenue. Online sales in Turkiye consists of only direct-to-consumer channels and grew 94%, pre-IAS29 in 2023, driven by the strong 120% pre-IAS29 growth of mavi.com. On non-sales now constitutes 8.7% of total sales in Turkiye. Being the best performing channel internationally, online business makes up 32.7% of total international sales. Mavi.com is the main driver with 65% pre-IAS29 growth in 2023. With brick-and-mortar retail continuously performing strong, especially in a Turkey context, omnichannel capabilities are essential for future growth and in improving the shopping experience for consumers. We are seeing very positive results from our omnichannel initiatives driving incremental sales. Mavi will continue to invest in data analytics and CRM projects that support omnichannel growth and make sure online business continues to be a positive contributor to margins. Let's move on to review our consolidated financial results. We will first provide the pre-IAS 29 results for comparison with previous quarters. Reviewing our pre-IAS29 gross margin performance on Slide 19. In Turkiye, continued strong demand was captured with variety, newness and right product price positioning. On the other hand, we have been using our strong balance sheet position and our sourcing capabilities to keep product cost increases as controlled as possible. Without the IAS29 provisions when adjusted for increasing interest rate impact, our gross margin shows 340 basis points improvement in the fourth quarter. This led to a flat gross margin year-over-year realizing at 53.7%. Moving on to Slide 20 to review our pre-IAS29 EBITDA and bottom line performance. The significant pre-IAS29 gross margin improvements in fourth quarter was largely reflected on the pre-IAS29 EBITDA margins. OpEx/sales in the last quarter was weaker due to one-off costs related to the organizational structure changes in international offices. And as a result, our EBITDA, excluding the IFRS16 adjustments grew 103% in 2023, resulting with an EBITDA margin of 20.7%, improving 120 basis points. EBITDA margin, including IFRS16, realized 21.8% in the fourth quarter, leading to an annual pre-IAS29 EBITDA margin of 24.1%, which is above the high end of our latest revised guidance. The increase in net financial expenses is limited to our strong balance sheet, enhanced operational performance is mostly reflected to our bottom line. Our pre-IAS29 net income in the fourth quarter is TRY 690 million, bringing the total in 2023 to TRY 2.865 billion, with a net income margin of 14.2%. On Slide 21, we look into our IAS29 inflation accounting adjusted reported margin performance. As you can see from the results, the inflation accounting adjustments impact on gross margin is 370 basis points in 2022 and 550 basis points in 2023. There are 2 main reasons for this. First, the inflation index in 2023 is higher compared to 2022. Second, 2022 opening inventory was significantly lower than that of 2023, causing the impact of inflation on 2022, beginning inventory and cost of goods to be launched. As a result, gross margin is 100 basis points lower in 2023, realizing at 48.2%. The overall impact on gross margin is mainly reflected on the EBITDA margin bringing the yearly EBITDA margin to 18.9%. A nominal EBITDA of TRY 4.959 billion is achieved in 2023, 18% higher than 2022. Mavi recorded TRY 136 million monetary loss in 2023 while reporting TRY 279 million monetary gain in 2022, mainly due to increased equity base in 2023, which is coming from strong pre-IAS29 net income in 2022. Monetary gain/loss impact, coupled with higher effective tax rate in 2023, resulted in 9% decline at the bottom line compared to 2022. As a result, TRY 1.757 billion net income was recorded with a net income margin of 6.7%. On Slide 22, we look into our operational cash flow and working capital performance, including the IAS29 impact as reported. Not working capital requirement increased in 2023, mainly due to strategic actions taken to mitigate product cost pressures such as cash payments for manufacturers, early booking of capacity and advanced payments for raw materials. Nevertheless, the net working capital as percentage of sales is back to our targeted levels with 5.3%. When adjusted for inflationary accounting, the success of inventory management is more visible. Our inventory level improved significantly in 2023, both in nominal terms and as a percentage of COGS, largely driven by strong performance of Turkiye retail operations. Inventory number of pieces in Turkiye is 4% lower compared to same period last year and comprises of all fresh, new season products. Overall, Mavi generated close to TRY 4.5 billion of operational cash in 2023 with a 9% cash conversion rate. Moving on to next slide. According to reported financials pre-IAS29, we recorded TRY 596 million in capital expenditures in 2023, resulting in a CapEx to sales ratio of 2.3%. On the retail side, we had store openings, expansions and some new store concept transformations taking place. Apart from retail, we have been investing predominantly on IT projects, digital investments, and R&D. Our strong operational performance led to strong operational cash generation in the quarter. And despite the cash deployed to working capital, our net cash position increased significantly reaching TRY 3.662 billion as of year-end. As always, all the foreign currency that you see on our consolidated reports belong to our subsidiaries, all borrowing in their respective local currencies. Hence, they do not pose any currency risk. We continue our approach of holding no foreign exchange position in our balance sheet. Our gross debt level significantly reduced at the end of 2023. The remaining balance has a blended average cost of 41.1%. On Slide 24, let's have a very quick look at how we performed against our targets in 2023. With the robust performance throughout the year, we revised our revenue and EBITDA guidance figures upwards twice in 2023. We closed the year with 91% pre-IAS29 consolidated revenue growth which is well above our latest revised target of 85% plus. Our realized pre-IAS29 EBITDA margins also surpassed the higher end of our latest revised guidance. While we stood behind in-store opening targets due to some calendar shifts in plants, we will be sure to catch up in 2024 in square meter growth. We are sharing our official guidance for 2024, excluding the impacts of IAS29 on financials. We will be able to update our guidance to include IAS29 impact when there is more visibility on inflation expectations for the year. For the financial year 2024, we are expecting 70% plus/minus 5% consolidated sales growth. We are planning a higher square meter growth this year after a few years of slowdown in this area due to externalities. Our target is to open net 15 stores and expand 10 stores in 2024. We expect a pre-IAS29 EBITDA margin of 20% plus or minus 0.5%, excluding IFRS16 and 23.5% plus or minus 0.5%, including IFRS16. We are foreseeing continued increase in our net cash position within the year and planning to spend 5% of sales as CapEx, including the investment for our new headquarters offices in Turkiye, which will again be leased. Before I close my statements, as always, I would also like to give you a brief update on the current trading environment as of date. We continue to see high demand for our products and a positive pricing environment as of today. Turkiye retail sales increased 131% in February and 91% year-on-year in the first 13 days of March. Online sales in Turkiye grew 150% in February and 70% year-on-year in the first 13 days of March. February results reflect the low base of the earthquake impacts on business last year. With this final great note, I am happy to take any questions you may have. Thank you very much.

[Operator Instructions]. We had a first question on the chat screen, I think, when we can start with that. I think that came earlier. Mustafa is asking from the chat screen. He is saying thank you very much for the presentation. You target to open 15 new retail stores in 2024 which almost tripled the average net store opening over the last 4 years. Should we expect this trend to continue in the upcoming years?

At this point, I mean, generally speaking, I would say you will hear probably not a single-digit number, but more like a double-digit number for the coming 3 years. So 15 for next year and 10 plus for the coming years would be my guidance at this point in time. Clearly, as the inflationary environment subsides in Turkey, I believe there will be more appetite to find more space and for construction to speed -- take speed, which will also enable us to cater and open up new stores in new construction and new shopping malls. So that would be my answer.

The second question is any update on the midterm international growth plan?

In terms of international growth plan for the short period, which is this year, following year, so like a 2-year perspective, on the one hand, we are putting in a lot of great investments, especially behind North America, both U.S. and Canada, as well as growing, as I mentioned, our e-com business. Generally speaking, we target new targets that we grow around high single digit or low double-digit U.S. dollar for the international markets.

And there is another question [Technical Difficulty] built on a significant cash pile, which will likely further improve in 2024, even considering your increased CapEx plan? What is your plan regarding the accumulating cash position?

There is in the near future, as we just mentioned, an opportunity to -- where we will put investments behind opening up a new office and relocating our headquarters. Down the road, as our business grows, there will also come a time in the near future within a year, which I will be able to give you a better feeling probably within the next 6 months, where we will have to make a significant CapEx investment behind warehousing and distribution facilities. So those are the 2 areas that are ahead of us. On the other hand, we choose to keep some of the cash attempts, especially chasing after opportunities to further invest behind technology and digital transformation. And the leftover cash, if any, predominantly is a necessary tool, we believe, in this time of uncertainty and high interest rates. It's a bit of a defensive buffer that we are using as a treasury policy and capitalizing on our cash conversion rate and using the cash advance to finance our raw materials, production planning and capability and competitive pricing with our business partners. So assumingly, this money might be a bit excess and standing on the side. But the money itself being in our bank account gives us a great leverage when it comes to talking and a comfort zone. Talking with 80% plus of our sourcing as you know, comes from Turkey. And it is important that we come into this and sit down at the table talking with our providers and sourcing business partners with this cash available for our disposable as they are also or some of them might be struggling and may require some financing support. So we have one big family and an ecosystem, and we want to make sure that we are managing a risk-free, good quality, best-in-class products coming off the shelves. So hopefully, probably, if I were to give a flavor for the next 2 years and beyond, if the government's approach on inflationary fighting measures coming to space and inflation comes down to 15%, 20% levels, we will be very much willing to move into a different mindset and not keep as much cash at times. Thank you.

I see a hand, but maybe we can finish the questions on the chat.

Okay. Let's finish the chat questions.

[indiscernible]. Could the expansion and tightening of sanctions against Russia need you to reconsider and possibly terminate Mavi's operations in Russia. Are there currently any difficulties in conducting business such as obtaining goods and financial transfers?

I have in previous, also, calls and whenever we had the opportunity to meet with the investment committee mentioned our Russia policy or approach -- business strategy. I'll take this opportunity as we are starting a new year to reiterate how we review the Russia business. We have called out when the war with Russia and Ukraine started 2 years ago as maintaining our Russia business and not investing more than what is already there. So across the last 2 years, our Russia business is EBITDA positive, cash positive and it's growing nicely. However, across the last 2 years, we have not invested in opening new stores or expanding our business beyond what we already have. Going into the future, we are still remaining on a very defensive mindset. And this goes really hand in hand with the question that was caused. So for us, Russia business is a maintained kind of a business. It's about 3% -- 2%, 3% of our total business, so it's not a huge part of our business. And if it becomes to a point that divestment sanctions grow or for some reason, we may need to exit, we are willing to exit from Russia. Having said that, we are hoping that this will not be the case. We will maintain what we have. And across the coming few years, we will be able to get back to normal resuming business and continue to grow our business there. In terms of current operating -- in terms of shipping products, cash transfers, money, operations, our teams visiting each other, building our relationship with our subsidiary, we are not facing anything out of the ordinary than more than that is happening as you might know. So for us, business is continuing pretty smoothly. We are able to ship our products. The consumers are happy buying Mavi brands. [indiscernible], our e-com business, digital business is growing, as you could expect a little faster than normal. Our current retail store, which is slightly less than 20 plus -- 20 stores, they're operating in a nice way. So we hope to maintain what we have, keep it profitable, keep it nice and hopefully and eventually when this crisis subsides, we can get back to taking these 20 stores up to 50, 60, 70 stores, which was the -- you may recall -- some of you may recall that we were trying to hit the 50 stores when we started this operation. So we have to pull aside. So that's our outlook for Russia.

The second question from [indiscernible] is what is the scale of your operations in the U.S.A.? What efforts are you making to expand these operations? Is it foreseeable that your operations in U.S.A. will reach a meaningful level in the near future?

I mean, overall, U.S.A, we look at U.S.A. and Canada together. So our North America operations are give or take $70 million, $80 million. This is a geography that is -- when you talk about the international markets, this is priority #1 for us. So Russia is on hold. Europe is more what we could call "mute market", so maintain what we have. But when it comes to North America business, we are very much motivated to grow our presence in the North America business. Having said that, this is a long journey. I've been with the company for 15 years, and I've seen the growth of Mavi Turkiye grow from around $70 million, $80 million to some $600 million plus, almost close to $700 million in 15 years. So I envision that across the mid- to long term that we will reach significant revenue turnovers in the U.S. market. To this end, in terms of sourcing, planning, marketing, people management, warehousing, e-comm investments, we are doing a lot of behind the scenes infrastructure and people and technology-related investments. And as time evolves, some of these investments, I'm quite confident will deliver good dividends that will show up, both on top line and bottom line growth. So as Mavi in the next, let's say, a 3-year perspective, Turkiye will remain very important for us. We are very confident that we will continue to grow our business in Turkiye regardless of uncertainties within this market. We are a great brand, trusted brand. We are great -- our 2 feet are on the ground, and we are well positioned to continue to capture new customers and expand wardrobe shares. While doing that, we are really well aware that especially the North America business, then followed by Europe business, which will -- which hopefully we will also be putting in more investments in the coming months are going to be important and vital growth strategic geographies for us. Thank you.

Okay. So there are 2 other questions on the chat screen. They are very similar to each other. It says you have an impact announcement on installment payment on the credit card account. Do you have any impact announcement on installment payments made by credit card? Do you think that demand going forward, especially in your market in the pre-election period. The second question is similarly, it is expected that additional steps will be taken to combat inflation following the local elections, such as reducing credit card installment plans. What percent of market sales are made with credit cards and do you anticipate a decrease in sales if this measure is implemented. I can jump in to contribute first to give you the color on the percentage of sales made with credit cards. So about 15% of sales are made with cash. But the 85% that is made with credit cards, most of it around 60% is only one installments. So Mavi is not a brand that we don't do many installments anyhow.

Generally speaking. First thing I want to say is Mavi overall is a very defensive brand when it comes to economic uncertainty. So regardless of economic ups or downs, we are confident that we will continue our new customer acquisition and consumer sales and continue to capture market share as we have a lot of room to capture both on men's and women's in terms of categories and growing our business. And in terms of how we are positioned as apparel brand and Duygu and myself, when we are meeting you guys and talking about Mavi, we're trying to remind you guys that this negative sentiment in terms of how the economy might turn out, we are very bullish in terms of how consumers will continue to spend on our apparel spending and especially behind Mavi. So first, that is a key point that I would like to reiterate. When it comes to, as mentioned by the credit cards, we have come to a point where Mavi is a full price and right price kind of a brand, meaning almost everything you see in the stores, almost 85%, 90% of [indiscernible] is sold at the first price. So we have come to a stage where consumers trust and Mavi's understanding of consumer and their pocket relationship is built on a mutual strong trust. So consumers are coming and buying the great quality of products and they appreciate that the product they're buying could not have been any better for the price that they are buying. Therefore, as Duygu mentioned, about 15% of our transaction is in cash. The remaining 85% is credit card. But having said that, even of that 85%, almost 80% is on one installment. So consumers are not demanding from Mavi 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 installments. So we are not, I underline, we are not a technology brand, we are not a household electronics brand, we are not in the category of where you need, in sort of buying a heavy item, in terms of affordability and reach, we are really accessible to the consumer and their disposable income. Therefore, these changes in terms of credit card regulations and efforts by the government to slow down economy to curb inflation, which is great news for all of us, will have minimal impact on Mavi and Mavi's sales.

Okay. [indiscernible] has a question.

I want to ask a couple of questions. First of all, in your guidance, you foresee a 70% increase in revenue but how does the volume growth look like? We don't know your inflation assumptions. So can you give us a little bit color on the volume growth in this year? And my second question is also your EBITDA margin guidance doesn't include the inflation accounting. So do you foresee a lot of inventory gain in the EBITDA margin that you guided? Or is it going to be lower if we apply inflation accounting to this margin? Thank you very much.

When it comes to volume growth in this year's current projection, as we are planning for the year, we have incorporated more than 10% volume growth. So it will be a double-digit volume growth that will come through. And personally, through the year as the quarters roll out, I do hope to come in and every quarter update our volume growth on both updates and also upgrade potentially our volume growth performance in Turkey. So that would, in a way, give you a guidance of us assuming around 50% to 60% roughly ballpark inflationary expectations in terms of COGS and cost of goods being sold going up. When it comes to your other question, it is really premature for me today to comment on how the inventory and inflation impacts IAS29 pre/post. So what we would like to do and ask for everybody's patience in these uncertain times, to stay in touch with our IR team, and we will look forward to give you more color, feeling in terms of how this new reported scheme is doing. As you can all appreciate, many companies have asked for 2 month delays even in reporting. And I believe Mavi is one of the few companies, was brave enough to come out and immediately announce its results. Internally, both from planning/reporting, it is putting also our -- but in a positive way, a lot of pressure for us to get a grip of what these numbers mean, how it will impact us, how we work, how we report. So this is really fresh out of the oven. Literally, we really worked hard. My team worked really hard to stay on top of the numbers and give the investment community as a best-in-class company how finance can be best managed. So I choose not to answer the other question, although I have a feeling that it's not going to be all that negative. But I don't want to officially state anything at this point in time. But thank you for us on that point. Thank you.

I think there's another question on the chat screen. How is the competition in the domestic market considering both international brands and Turkish players? Has the controlled increase in exchange rate made international players competitive again. Could you provide information about the competitive conditions.

That's a big question. But let me try to be as, to the point, as possible. From a competitive landscape point of view, in terms of our market intelligence, brand positioning, quality price proposition and reach to our consumers and also within the company with all the CRM data, promotional impact is the manufacturing base, the speed to shelf, retail excellence and all the points that I mentioned when it comes to omnichannel best-in-class practices, we feel whether it is the low end of the trade or the high end of the trade, that as Mavi, we will continue to grow our volume. We will continue to gain new customers, and we will be able to also sell more to the current base of customers and expand in terms of wardrobe distribution. I also mentioned with my peers, a side point, that our women's share grew to 37%. These 1%, 2%, 3%, 4% gross shares are very important in terms of making top line growth and bottom line profits for us. So this year, 2024, we expect will also be a successful growth and market share gain year for Mavi. When it comes to locals, there are the big box names, big square meter names, which are price competitive. It all comes down to pricing, their pricing capability and their volume and retail best management practices. But in terms of where I see and you can see our financials and management best-in-class performance indicators when it comes to speed to shelf, agility, newness, relevance of products, quality, et cetera., I confidently can say that what Mavi is offering to the consumers beats the competition by miles. When it comes to international, from a quality front, Mavi is no less. So therefore, we are in a comfort zone. When it comes to their prospect, because Turkish lira is relatively more strong, they become more of a competitive risk for the big boxes rather than Mavi, simply because, as I mentioned, with our good and strong balance sheet, we are able to book capacity. And as we know, as a financially prudent company, we are doing everything where we have also dollar-denominated exposure to hedge them and to eliminate any potential currency-related risk. So both from a treasury and finance approach perspective as well as our capability to produce with the best-in-class manufacturers in Turkey and to have the agility. I mean I've also mentioned that even our inventory is 4% below last year in terms of volume, and we are fresh and we are -- our speed to shelf is much better, which means our streamlining cash generation will remain positive. So from where we stand, the brand's strength, the trust, the appeal, the quality versus the international or domestic for Mavi is less of a concern. But your point, as I've tried to give you some color is more of an internal competition issue, yes, for some of the Turkish local players vis-a-vis some of the big boxes of international players, but there will be some competitive ups and downs. But I also see the cyclicals. I mean there are yields where one is winning and the other is losing. And there are yields, the other is winning and the other is losing. Generally speaking, if you look at Mavi's past 4, 5 years perspective, we are, no matter what always are on the winning side and I remain quite positive when it comes to Mavi's consumer base and the product and the brand appeal that we will continue to be on the winning side regardless of competition, international or domestic.

Do we have any more questions? Okay. Since we don't have any more questions. Thank you for all of your time and [indiscernible] contribution. If you have any follow-ups or comments, you can always reach us from Investor Relations. I hope to see you again in our first quarter results.

Thank you, everybody. I wish you all of you a happy, healthy new year. And I also would like to thank each and every one of you for your continued support in being with us and asking the right questions and keeping us on the right track. As Duygu mentioned, also through this year, we look forward to being together, sharing our business journey and great results and hopefully having another successful year behind us and take care. Bye-bye.