Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MIRM) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
September 28, 2026
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorGood morning, and welcome to the Mirum Pharmaceuticals Business Update Call. My name is Hillary, and I will be your operator today. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Andrew McKibben, SVP of Strategic Finance and Investor Relations. Andrew, please go ahead.
Andrew McKibben
executiveThank you, Hillary, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to welcome you to Mirum's conference call to discuss top line results from the Phase III portion of the AZURE-1 study of brilovateig in chronic hepatitis delta along with 48-week data from the Phase IIb portion of the study. For our prepared remarks, I'm joined today by our Chief Executive Officer, Chris Peetz, our Executive Vice President of Clinical Development, Nancy Shulman; and Peter Radovich, our President and Chief Operating Officer. Also joining us for the Q&A portion of the call are Rob Myers, our Chief Medical Officer; and Eric Burhop, our Chief Financial Officer. Earlier today, Mirum issued a press release announcing these results. A copy of that release and our SEC filing, along with the presentation summarizing the data are available on the Investors section of our website. Before we start, I'd like to remind you that during the course of this conference call, we will be making certain forward-looking statements based on management's current expectations, including statements regarding Mirum's programs and market opportunities for its approved medicines and product candidates and financial guidance. These statements represent our judgment and knowledge of events as of today and inherently involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from the results discussed. We are under no duty to update these statements. Please refer to the risk factors in our latest Form 10-Q and subsequent SEC filings for more information about these risks and uncertainties. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Chris. Chris?
Christopher Peetz
executiveThanks, Andrew, and thank you for joining our call this morning. Today marks another defining moment for Mirum and more importantly, for patients with hepatitis delta. We are excited to announce that the Phase III portion of the AZURE-1 study demonstrated rapid, statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement on the primary endpoint with Brelovitug. To put these results in context, hepatitis delta is the most reform of viral hepatitis with the potential for rapid progression to cirrhosis, liver disorder for treatment at 24 weeks led to urologic response and ALT normalization in the majority of patients. These results represent the first pivotal Phase III readout of the Azure program, and they positioned brulovitug as a well-tolerated single-agent human monoclonal antibody with potential to treat a wide range of hepatitis delta patients. We continue to expect top line results of the Phase III AZURE study in the fourth quarter, keeping us on track for a planned BLA submission in the first half of next year. Now this news comes just days after another important milestone for the company announced last Friday. The FDA approved a [indiscernible] tablets reduced the volume of total new heterotopic ossification in adult and pediatric patients aged 12 years and older with fibrodysplasia, osticans Progressive or FOP. [indiscernible] is now the fourth commercial medicine at Mirum. We brought AtebrIos into the rare genetic disease portfolio only in the second quarter this year. So this is fast progress and credit to the Insight team who did a fantastic job leading this through regulatory review. For today's updates, Nancy Shulman, EVP of Clinical Development, who designed and leads the Azure program will walk through the results. Peter will also provide comments on launch preparations from and the newly approved us, and I'm happy to welcome Dr. Rob Myers, who joined us last week as our Chief Medical Officer, for the Q&A portion of the call. Rob is a widely recognized hepatologist and physician scientists with more than 2 decades of experience developing novel medicines. He joined us from [indiscernible], where he was Chief Medical Officer and Head of Development. And before that, he spent a number of years at Gilead. He joins us at a busy time for our pipeline as we look to transition 3 programs from clinic to commercial in the near term. And finally, before diving in, I'd like to say thank you to the patients, investigators and study team around the world who made a 0.1 possible. Now over to Nancy.
Unknown Executive
executiveThank you, Chris. I'm very pleased to review the top line results from the Phase III portion of the 01 study, and I'll also walk through the top line 48-week results for the Phase IIb portion of the study. Like Chris, I'd like to extend my gratitude to all the participants, investigators and the dedicated Mirum study team who made this possible. As a reminder, hepatitis delta occurs only in the setting of hepatitis B virus co-infection because the hepatitis delta virus relies on hepatitis B surface antigen for viral assembly, entry and dissemination. Hepatitis Delta is the most severe form of viral hepatitis and relative to chronic hepatitis B alone, delta is associated with the more severe liver disease and more rapid progression to cirrhosis, liver cancer and liver failure. . For Lovatug is a fully human monoclonal antibody that binds hepatitis B surface antigen. It works by clearing hepatitis delta from the circulation and by preventing entry into liver cells. Before getting into the data, it's worth discussing the combined approvable endpoint recommended by the FDA, which includes both virologic response and ALT normalization. HDV RNA measures the degree of viral suppression, while ALT reflects ongoing liver inflammation, both are important. Although viral expression generally leads to reductions in inflammation, a virologic response alone does not necessarily mean that liver inflammation has resolved. Liver inflammation is the key driver to -- for progression to fibrosis, cirrhosis and liver cancer. In this setting, ALT is the most practical and widely accepted biomarker for assessing inflammatory activity within the liver. Now turning to the Phase III results. The Phase III portion of AZURE-1 enrolled 153 patients globally, randomized approximately 2 2:1 to receive Brelovitug 300-milligram once weekly self administered by subcutaneous injection at home. Brelovitug 900 milligrams once every 4 weeks administered in clinic by subcutaneous injection with an additional loading dose at week 2. or third arm was delayed treatment starting with a crossover at week 24 to the 300-milligram once weekly regimen. We enrolled a broad patient population with meaningful disease burden. There was no upper limit on ALT for study participation and at baseline, we had 18% who had ALT above 5x the upper limit of normal. 41% had cirrhosis and 20% had clinically significant portal hypertension. I'm very pleased to say that at week 24, Brelovitug met the primary endpoint. I'm going to focus on the results for the 300-milligram once weekly dose, but the numbers are highly significant for both arms. For the 300-milligram dose arm, 56% achieves the combined endpoint compared to 0 in the delayed treatment arm with a highly significant p-value. Virologic response was achieved in 86% compared to 0 in the delayed treatment arm. HDV RNA below the limit of quantification with our assay to 10 IUs per ml was achieved in 25% compared with 0 in the delayed treatment. And this includes 17% who were at Target mutein. ALT normalization was achieved in 63% of patients compared to 0 in the delayed treatment arm. Brelovitug was well tolerated with a safety profile consistent with the previously reported AZURE-1 Phase IIb results, there were no treatment-related serious or Grade 3 adverse events or discontinuations and low rates of flu licenses. Now turning over to the 48-week data from the Phase IIb portion of AZURE-1. As a reminder, the Phase IIb portion included the first 53 patients enrolled in the study. At EASL earlier this year, we presented the full week 24 results. Here, we provide an update out to week 48, which showed continued deepening of viral suppression and increasing rates of ALT normalization with ongoing treatment. A highlight is the proportion achieving HDV RNA below the lower limit of quantification, which again is 10 IUs is per mL. Remember, the average HDV RNA levels for these patients at baseline was around $0.5 million. So dropping these to less than 10 is a significant reduction. Finally, we also expect to present 2-year data from our original Phase II study showing continued improvements in ALT and HDV RNA in the cirrhotic patients at an upcoming medical conference. Overall, these results reinforce the compelling profile for Brelovitug as a well-tolerated, convenient single-agent potential therapy for patients with hepatitis delta including those with advanced disease. With that, I'll turn it over to Peter.
Peter Radovich
executiveThanks, Nancy. Hepatitis Delta is a natural extension of our rare disease commercialization strategy. bringing life-changing medicines to underserved and underdiagnosed patients is where Miramax cells and belobatab fits that profile. Let me start with the opportunity. We believe there are approximately 15,000 patients with hepatitis delta in the United States who are diagnosed, insured and under care today. Over the course of 2026 Mirum has supported several hepatitis delta disease awareness initiatives and engaged with hepatitis B providers from a broad array of clinical settings to better understand the delta diagnosis paradigm and disease burden. Through our disease state conversations, it's clear to us that delta testing in the United States has been extremely low and then most of the burden exists in nonacademic community settings. Thus, we believe the true U.S. prevalence is considerably larger with the significant majority of patients undiagnosed today. . And given our confidence in Brelovitug's robust single-agent profile shared today by Nancy, we are updating our peak sales guidance to at least $1 billion. We believe one of the strengths of the Mirum model is the efficiency of our commercial organization. Today, our rare liver team supports Live Marley in pediatric and adult liver care settings. Over time, we expect to leverage this capability, utilizing the same team to support 3 commercial medicines, Live Marley, Volixibat and Brelovitug. Now turning briefly to [indiscernible] is a once-daily oral ALK2 inhibitor designed to target the disease driving pathway at the center of FOP biology. As Chris mentioned, we received FDA approval late last week, and our rare genetic medicines team is ready to go. We're excited about the label and believe it can facilitate broad access for FOP patients age 12 and over. With product launch in October, we expect revenue to begin in the first quarter of 2027. This launch leverages the Mirum Rare Genetics team already in place supporting [indiscernible] as the physicians who care for FOP patients are concentrated in many of the same specialized centers. And most importantly, we are both grateful and enthusiastic about the opportunity to bring another high-impact medicine to a rare disease patient population in desperate need of treatment options. And with that, I'll turn it back to Chris. Chris.
Eric Bjerkholt
executiveYes. Chris seems to be muted. So I will read the last section before we open it up for Q&A. Thanks, Peter. Today's updates are exciting for both patients and Mirum. I'm proud that we've built an industry-leading team in rare disease to deliver moments like this with a new approved therapy for FOP patients and strong Phase III results in hepatitis delta and our strategy is positioned for continued growth. Today, fewer than 5% of rare diseases have an approved treatment and even where treatments exist significant unmet need remains. The upcoming launch of AtebrIos is an immediate opportunity to put our business model to work to help patients with FOP. For hepatitis delta, these are the first pivotal Phase III results from the Azure program. The week 24 results reinforce our excitement about what Brelovitug can mean for patients with hepatitis delta as a highly active, well-tolerated potential medicine for a deadly disease. Looking ahead, we expect top line data from AZURE-4 a second Phase III study with a similar design to AZURE-1 in the fourth quarter, which keeps us on track for a BLA submission in the first half of next year. Once again, thank you to the patience and investigators who participated in AZURE-1 and a huge thank you to the Mirum team who are working relentlessly to bring these important medicines forward. And with that, operator, please open the line for questions.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line from Yigal Nochomovitz from Citigroup.
Yigal Nochomovitz
analystCongratulations on the -- both the approval as well as the data this morning. So I was just curious if you could speak a little bit with regard to the read-through to Azure 4. Obviously, the endpoint there is a little bit more stringent. So could you just comment on how you see that playing out given the results in Azure with obviously, very strong 86% biologic response, although a lower T&D rate of 17% at week 24. And then just related to that, in terms of the filing, what's the latest commentary from the FDA with respect to meeting both Azure-1 and Azure-4? Is there a pathway where if it's just as one for whatever reason, you would still be in good position to file.
Christopher Peetz
executiveThanks for the question a couple of quick comments, and I'll pass it over to Nancy to speak about the difference in study design into AZURE-4. But the one thing to say is overall, we're alignment with FDA on the AZURE-1 and 4 being part of the filing. And as your 4 is just around the corner. So we expect to be bringing those results in the fourth quarter and on track for that first half BLA submission. But Nancy to get into some of the details on AZURE-4.
Unknown Executive
executiveYes. Thanks, Chris. So actually, the endpoints are quite similar. AZURE-4 is a 24-week endpoint for the balobatag. It is the comparison we are comparing 24 weeks to 12 weeks. -- as we see here -- the control arm doesn't really improve from 12 to 24.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Ryan Deschner from Raymond James.
Ryan Deschner
analystCongratulations on the strong readout. Are you seeing continued improvement in ALT and ALT normalization at time points later than the 48 weeks in the Phase IIb portion of AZURE-1 and I have a follow-up.
Christopher Peetz
executiveYes. Just to put a couple of things in context, and I'll let Nancy speak again to the data. Here, we're providing the Phase III update, that's a 24-week end point. the long-term follow-up from the Phase IIb will be 48. And we have additional analyses out to 2 years plan from the Phase IIa. So painting a nice picture overall, but I'll let Nancy speak to some of the trends that we're seeing.
Unknown Executive
executiveSo the short answer to your question is yes. We do see continued reductions in ALT even when they're below -- below the upper a little bit normal. .
Ryan Deschner
analystGot it. And then can you attribute the lack of mean reversion on the primary end point or ALT normalization, particularly 2 in this readout compared to the Phase IIb portion of AZURE-1.
Unknown Executive
executiveYes, that's a great question. So remember, there's a 20 -- approximately 20 patients in each of the Brelovitug arms in the IIB. And so these are -- remember, these are point estimates and they have confidence in enroll around them. And if you look at the confidence levels, they still overlap. So we think they're not really different. .
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Josh Schimmer from Cantor Fitzgerald.
Joshua Schimmer
analystCongratulations on the results. I guess considering the community setting for HCV patients, how might that impact your overall commercial strategy, if at all? And maybe you can elaborate on some of the efforts you're planning to undertake to continue to identify new HDV patients.
Christopher Peetz
executiveYes. Thanks for the question. Pretty active on this front. I'll let Peter kind of share what we've been up to.
Peter Radovich
executiveYes. Thanks for the question, Josh. Yes, indeed, many of the HBV patients and therefore, delta patients are not in Gastrology hepatology, many from our infectious disease or even primary care settings and kind of select areas often where in urban areas where and going procures. But we do actually have a team out in the field now, doing disease state awareness, scientific exchange. or so folks out there now interacting with those people, raising awareness of the disease and testing paradigms and hopefully, eventually new therapies. .
Operator
operatorIt seems that the analyst has dropped. So I will allow them to rejoin the queue in case there's a follow-up. We will move on to the next question, which is from James Condulis from Stifel.
James Condulis
analystCongrats on all the updates. Just a quick 1 as it relates to sort of efficacy and what you think matters most to docs in the real world. Just curious, is it the composite virologic response certain measures of urologic response. Just like curious what you hear from docs and then kind of on that point as it relates to the commercial opportunity and sort of the new estimate. Can you just kind of expand on what's driving that? .
Christopher Peetz
executiveThanks for the question. I'll let answer Nancy and Rob to comment on the first portion and pass it over to Peter for the commercial.
Unknown Executive
executiveYes. So -- to answer your question, so I'm an [indiscernible] disease person Rob is a hepatologist so he can opine as well. Both ALT and HDV RNA responses are important. So -- we think that one of the things that I'll say is that there has been no actual data that shows the predictability of the degree of suppression and how that relates to clinical outcomes. So if you get to, say, 100 units IUs per ML or you get to [indiscernible] you get to T&D, there has been no data in hepatitis delta suggesting that 1 predicts better outcomes than the other. So we know that in hepatitis B, actually ALT normalization predicts endpoints such as liver cancer and progression to decompensation. more so than the degree of suppression, particularly T&D versus other. So I think both of our port, especially in the therapies that are going to require longer term.
Christopher Peetz
executiveYes I agree 100% with Nancy, I think being Normalization in tandem are important -- we know that it's liver inflammation and liver cell injury, which drives fibrosis on the complications of hepatitis delta. So the biochemical responses we're seeing are very encouraging. I'll also say we're seeing reductions in liver stiffness, which seem to increase over time, which portend well for prognosis of these patients looking forward to presenting these data at an upcoming conference.
Peter Radovich
executiveAnd then James, on the commercial aspect of the peak revenue update of your question. Yes, the primary driver of that is robust single-agent activity data that Nancy reviewed today. I feel really good about the profile and continued confidence is the primary driver of that. Also I would note that recent entrant in the U.S. out pricing at about PHP 285,000 per patient per year came in a bit above the price levels we had kind of assumed in the prior forecast we've communicated at the time of the Blue Jay transaction. .
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Brian Skorney from Baird.
Brian Skorney
analystCongrats on 2 positive wins. Over the weekend. Just 2 quick ones for me. Just in terms of the 300-milligram dose itself, can you just relate what the minimal volume that dose fits into and thoughts on single auto-injector? And just on sort of competitive labeling ultimately, the liver tide has a box warning about severe hepatitis flares upon cessation of therapy. Maybe in the current dynamic, it's kind of a good thing to have on label as it emphasizes compliance. But -- just thinking of a competitive landscape, is the assumption that all of these would have on label learnings about hepatitis flares on stopping therapy? Is there any data to indicate that you would potentially get around that somehow?
Christopher Peetz
executiveBrian, thanks for the question. I think from the starting point, it's kind of probably too early to speak to be able on this and making some of those comparisons. But I'll pass it over to Nancy to talk a little bit about administration of the 300 and the overall profile.
Unknown Executive
executiveYes. Thanks, Chris. So the volume of the 300 milligrams is 2 mls, and it doesn't require reconstitution and then the answer is we are working towards an auto-injector or prefilled syringe and I can hand it over to Peter.
Peter Radovich
executiveSure. Yes. Yes, Brian. The presentation at launch is Nancy mentioned, liquid and [indiscernible], no compensation required, but we are working on auto-injector that helped to introduce in the life cycle. And just kind of putting this all together for the profile for Brelovitug that simple once-weekly administration with a single injection really a convenient option for patients especially when you put it in the context of not needing to have a cut off for baseline ALT or liver stiffness or some of the things that are top of mind for care of these patients.
Operator
operatorYour follow-up question is from Kalpit Patel from Wolfe Research.
Kalpit Patel
analystSo in your Phase II and Phase III studies, you allowed patients with ALT greater than 5x upper limit of normal, whereas it looks like Vir is excluding them. So did those patients respond differently on any of the efficacy end points, either things like ALT normalization or T&D or any virologic measures? And if you exclude that subgroup, does the efficacy get better on any of those.
Unknown Executive
executiveThat's a great question. So the actual statistical comparisons between those who have hired the ALT at baseline versus those who don't the subgroups are not large enough to show statistical significance there's a trend, though, that if they're higher at baseline, it takes a little longer to get there.
Kalpit Patel
analystOkay. Got it. And if I can squeeze in a quick follow-up here. Where do you guys see the ultimate differentiation against vir's combo? And would you consider adding a second mechanism or time to drive perhaps deeper viral suppression and potentially exceed their P&D rate? .
Christopher Peetz
executiveI think overall, just the profile a little bit very compelling here. And so the very well tolerated, minimal adverse events from the flu-like symptoms and injection site reactions and drives over time a deepening of response with a simple fully human monoclonal antibody. So we think it's going to be a very competitive profile of that launch.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Joseph Thome from TD Cowen.
Joseph Thome
analystMaybe one on the data. Obviously, you're seeing good overall responses, but is there anything in a patient's profile maybe in the patients that did not maybe have a larger response that is predictive there, either in terms of disease progression or anything like that, that would predict a nonresponse at this point. And then second, on the commercial finding patients, when you mentioned the community setting, can you talk a little bit about -- are these patients actively seen by physicians? Or how much of a lift is it going to be to market the drug and kind of get patients to their doctors for diagnosis?
Christopher Peetz
executiveThat's for the question. Split this out between Nancy and Peter.
Unknown Executive
executiveYes. Thanks for the question. As far as your question on nonresponse, actually didn't have anybody that didn't have a response. And those who were not responders at week 24 are declining and actually responding hitting that 2 lock threshold at a subsequent time point. So it's hard to do baseline predictors when everybody responds.
Peter Radovich
executiveYen, Joseph, your question on the patient finding side, it's actually -- it's pretty tractable. These patients are being managed for their hepatitis B we can see both in medical claims and pharmacy claims there are on nukes obviously, where they're being managed and target those positions. And the key point we're trying to make is they're just not in academic settings by and large, right? So you think about large hepatology, liver transplant settings. That's not where the vast majority of the burden is. But it is a tractable group of largely concentrated in the major urban areas in the United States and something that we don't think will take a substantial investment and that we can largely leverage a lot of what we have here at Mirum already.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Gavin Clark-Gartner from Evercore.
Unknown Analyst
analystThis is [indiscernible] on for Gavin. We're just wondering how you're thinking about filing in terms of dose. Is the base case both doses? Or are you planning to move forward with one.
Christopher Peetz
executiveThanks for the question. [indiscernible] is the go-forward dose. But keep in mind that we're still waiting for confirmation of that, and these are 4 results in but all on track for first half submission.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Jessica Fye from JPMorgan.
Jessica Fye
analystJust curious when you talk about the $1 billion peak for Brelovitug. Can that be achieved within the existing diagnosed patient population, and if not, how much patient identification and diagnosis would you see being needed to get there?
Christopher Peetz
executiveThanks, Jeff. Yes, we believe it can be achieved in the existing diagnosed population. I mean think you can get a lot of the way there just in the U.S. Of course, there's a substantial international opportunity that we kind of leverage our international team to launch this product as well. I think there'll also be a lot more interest in testing in the future and even now that there's an FDA-approved medicine. So I think the overall -- we'll see the overall number of diagnosed patients increase. But for our revenue guidance, that's really an upside for us.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Mike Ulz from Morgan Stanley.
Unknown Analyst
analystIt's [indiscernible] on for Mike. I guess appreciating that the Phase IIb data on cirrhotic patients you'll be taking for a medical conference. Maybe could you speak to the Phase II population overall and how cirrhotic versus non-cirrhotic patients responded. And then on a related note. I guess at what point in the disease progression are most patients currently being diagnosed today? Are they generally more advanced and have cirrhosis or are they perhaps earlier on? And then, I guess, lastly, appreciating the 24-week study is not enough time to collect outcomes data are you -- in your longer-term extensions are you may be looking at whether cirrhosis can be prevented or reversed potentially in your longer-term studies?
Unknown Executive
executiveThanks for the questions. So the first question is, is there any difference in response between cirrhotics and non-cirrhotics. And the answer to that question is no, there's no here difference between the two. I think the second question was about when are people diagnosed. And in general, patients with HDV because of the speed of progression, they tend to be more advanced upon presentation at least currently than patients like otepatitisB. Historically, like in the studies, the rate of cirrhosis usually is between 30% and 50%. So if that gives any at. And then the last question about are we studying clinical outcomes? The answer to that question is yes. So the Azure studies will look at 96 weeks of treatment and then subsequently, we have -- we'll have the option to roll over to an open-label extension for an additional 3 years of treatment. And there we are look at -- so we will look at the rates of disease progression over the course of 5 years and then compare those to a historical control.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Lisa Walter from RBC Capital Markets.
Lisa Walter
analystFor the presentation this morning. Maybe from a modeling point of view, should we assume patients will be under treatment with Brelovitug lifelong? Or is there the possibility that some patients could stop treatment after being maintained with the viral load below the lower limit of quantification for some time, similar to what's going on in hepatitis B? Any color here would be helpful.
Christopher Peetz
executiveYes, thanks for the question. I mean, pretty [indiscernible] chronic therapy and how the protocols are being conducted as well.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Jon Wolleben from Citizens.
Jonathan Wolleben
analystCongrats on the data. Wondering how you're thinking about long-term follow-up in the Phase III population given the similar Phase IIb 48-week response rates you guys said that they seem to be overlapping. And how important is it for docs to see continued benefit over time for chronic use? Or do you think these 24 weeks data is enough to warrant adoption early on?
Christopher Peetz
executiveJohn, thanks for the question. I think the -- what we're seeing here over time, I think is really encouraging for what prescribers hopefully would be able to expect on this gets out in broader use. They see continued improvement across all measures over time. Maybe pass it over to Nancy to reiterate what we're saying week 48 and even 2-year time point.
Unknown Executive
executiveYes. Again, we're -- we plan -- we see rates of both ALT normalization and HDV RNA suppression with the deepening of the HDV RNA suppression over time, as I presented in the 0 12B. We also remember, presented data on our Phase IIa, and you see the exact same thing there. So 24 weeks is better than 48 weeks, you get better responses than 24 weeks. And again, I'm going to -- not going to say any kind of data, but we hope to present the 2-year data at upcoming conferences.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from Swayampakula Ramakanth from H.C. Wainright.
Unknown Analyst
analystThis is [indiscernible] from H.C. Wainright. On the data and the approval. A quick question from me. What evidence do you believe is required before you can call below it differentiated from entry inhibition or combination regimens, especially on T&D and off treatment durability, and also, will you be reporting the HBV background therapy and also the antigen kinetics when you present the full data. .
Christopher Peetz
executiveThanks, [indiscernible], for the question. The last component of it, we will work to get these data presented in a publication strategy to get a lot of that detail out over time. But in terms of the differentiation, we see it all there. With a single agent that's well tolerated, simple, one injection administration once weekly to drive this kind of response that only deepens over time. We think this treatment objectives for most physicians treating hepatitis delta. So I'm quite excited about what this profile means and how differentiated it will be when we get it out in the market.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Joe Schwartz from Leerink Partners.
Joseph Schwartz
analystCongrats on all the recent progress. Can you talk some more about what specifically needed to close the gap between the 15,000 diagnosed and 40,000 prevalent HCV patients in the U.S. how much of this depends on things like guideline changes, reflex testing, EMR prompts or other factors? And what's the likely time line for certain drivers -- and then I heard you acknowledge that HDV testing is currently extremely low, but you're raising your peak sales expectation and you alluded to some initiatives which you've been exploring. So I was wondering what have you learned from these initiatives, which points...
Peter Radovich
executiveI think the points you make, EMR prompts reflects testing, guideline changes. Those are all important I'll say though, I think one of the things that strikes me the most from all the conversations we've been having at Mirum with HBV clinicians over the last year in the U.S. as to the reason why the testing is extremely low is that there's just been no available therapies. The conversation is frequently -- yes, we could talk about EMR prompts. We could talk about reflex testing, but why, right? Why do I want to give someone a diagnosis for the most deadly form of viral hepatitis, if I don't have a therapy to offer them. my editorial view is, I think, certainly with the FDA approval we're going to see that change. And hopefully, with more approvals coming in the future, we'll see a lot more interest from clinicians for that baseline interest to actually do the testing. And in terms of how I think the how is exactly what you described, getting on the guidelines, EMR prompts, et cetera. And then you asked about our peak sales guidance. That really was around -- our change there was primarily around the confidence in the product profile that -- from the data that Nancy presented the robust single-agent activity that you see improve over time. That's really the primary driver for us increasing that. Also mentioned in response to a previous question that our assumed price has kind of gone up a little bit from what we communicated at the time of the Blue Jay transaction based on the how [indiscernible] price landed with the Gilead launch. And then any increase in the number of diagnosed patients under management, which is currently about 15,000 in the U.S., that would really -- that would be kind of upside. That's not baked into our base case thinking.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Ryan Deschner from Raymond James.
Ryan Deschner
analystA quick follow-up. What can you tell us about your updated expectations on [indiscernible] pricing, in particular, given where Regeneron is priced there drugs?
Peter Radovich
executiveYes. Thanks, Ryan. We communicated with the press release on Friday, we'll launch in October. We plan to make a final decision on price with launch. But yes, I would just for general guidance, I would expect it to be in the corridor of where Pasatru priced.
Operator
operatorThere are no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the call back to Christopher Peetz, CEO, for closing remarks.
Christopher Peetz
executiveOkay. Well, thanks, everyone, for joining the call today.
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