MONETA Money Bank, a.s. (MONET) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

October 23, 2026

SEP CZ Financials Banks earnings 61 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Dear ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the conference call of MONETA Money Bank regarding 3Q 2026 financial results. Please note that this conference call will be recorded. This event will have a live presentation followed by a Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] Today's speakers are Mr. Tomas Spurny, Mr. Carl Normann Vokt, Mr. Jan Fricek, and Mr. Andrew Gerber. May I now hand over to Mr. Tomas Spurny, who will lead you through today's conference call. Sir, please go ahead.

Tomáš Spurný

executive
#2

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Today, I have the pleasure and the honor to open today's conference regarding our financial performance as of the end of third quarter of 2026. If I can ask you to turn to Page #2, MONETA generated net profit of CZK 5.5 billion. This represents an improvement of 12.7% against the previous year. The result comes on the basis of growth in the operating income of the bank that came in at CZK 11.2 billion. We also enjoy a steady cost base of the bank. We incurred CZK 4.2 billion in operating expenditures. And lastly, we have under control cost of risk that came in at CZK 492 million. With respect to balance sheet development, our funding base reached CZK 476 billion. This represents growth of 3.8%, and we've enjoyed strong lending activity reflected in the growth of loan portfolio, reaching CZK 318 billion, growing at 10.4%. Overall, the balance sheet grew to a level of CZK 524 billion since the beginning of the year, representing growth of 5%. With respect to capital, we remain well capitalized at 19%. The CET1 ratio is at 13.1%, Tier 1 ratio is at around 15%, and we comfortably fulfill the MREL requirement at 27.4%. If you look at risk-weighted assets, the risk-weighted assets reached a level of CZK 181 billion, growing at 9%, in line with the portfolio, with the loan portfolio growth. The profitability translated into returns. With respect to return on tangible equity, we are near 24%, 23.9%, to be specific. And we have a strong liquidity position reflected in the coverage ratio, LCR of 282%. Based on the results year-to-date and particularly of the third quarter, which is the highest in history of the bank, we feel comfortable to increase the minimum net profit target for 2026 to a level of CZK 7.1 billion. This would be CZK 500 million better than what we originally, at the beginning of this year, communicated to the market. The improved guidance of the minimum net profit is driven by better-than-expected operating income. We believe that we will reach CZK 15 billion, steady cost base or stable cost base, and cost of risk range we tightened to 20 to 30 basis points. The year-to-date cost of risk translates into 22 basis points. Should we reach this result, the minimum net profit, the earnings per share would then be CZK 13.9 per share. If we turn the page, there are a couple of important points that we would like to get across. With respect to the lending growth, we expect to end the year in the range of 8.5% to 10.5%. This is on the basis of significant improvement in the lending activities compared to the year 2025. With respect to deposit growth, we expect a growth rate of 2.5% to 3.5% range. This relates to our, I would call it, a very careful repricing policy, as we would like to keep the cost of funds under control. For the full year, the average cost of funds, we expect in the range of 210 to 215 basis points, and this is supported by the fact that so far for the 3 quarters, we stood at 2.1%, which again represents stability in that metric. With respect to net interest margin, we would like to land in the range of 210 to 215 basis points. So far, we have put on the books CZK 77 billion of new lending. This is an increase compared to 2025 of 39%. The new volume year-to-date carries yield -- contractual yield of 5.6%. If we look at the third week -- 3 weeks of the fourth quarter, we are actually increasing this yield by nearly 100 basis points based on repricing that we've initiated at the end of third quarter. And lastly, the performance is reflected in the overall legacy portfolio yield, which has increased by 20 basis points. With respect to wealth management franchise and the third-party distribution, here, I would like to stress that we are continuing successfully expanding this franchise. We expect the administered portfolio to land somewhere between CZK 92.5 billion to CZK 95 billion at the end of the year, and we would like to reach the full year target of CZK 22 billion in sales. So far, this year-to-date, we have done CZK 16.3 billion. So the target is relatively ambitious, but let's hope that we will get it. On the following page, we have messages related to operating income, cost management, risk management, and net profit performance. I would like to maybe comment on cost of risk, where my expectation is that we should be in the middle of this range, and let's hope that, that materializes. The rest of it, I pretty much covered it in the opening remarks. Now let's turn to macroeconomic environment, the operating environment. If you look at Czech Republic, we have, I would say, so far, a resilient performance. Nonetheless, the GDP for this year is estimated at 2.2% growth, which is lower than what was initially expected at this time last year, and it's clear that the year-on-year change in the GDP, we see declining -- declining trend for the last 2 quarters. With respect to state budget deficit, this is projected to come in at 3.4% of the GDP. Currently, the debate regarding the budget deficit for 2027 is at around CZK 390 billion. So clearly, the pressure on government finance is increasing, and this is also visible from the slowly creeping up of the country's indebtedness. The good news is our unemployment. It remains benign and even though it's slightly increased if you look at the last 5 quarters. If we look at inflation, the year-on-year change is at 2%. The latest published number was at 2.5%. And if you look at the contribution to inflation, it's pretty much across all of the categories, except for clothing and food where we see some contraction, but the inflation remains a worry, namely due to the imported inflation, which comes out of the conflict in the Middle East. With respect to the yield curve, the yield curve is steepening. It's remarkable how the situation has changed during the past 12 months. And as I said, we try to reflect into our pricing on the asset side, and we also try to control the marginal increase of cost of funds through very careful strategy, how we keep the funding base, both from volume perspective and from a price perspective. Now let me turn to the development in our business model, namely the operating platform. We have -- we continue to have nascent growth in the customer base. This is slowed down by the pricing reality on deposits where we have taken the posture of seeking profitability rather than customer growth. With respect to branch network, we have closed 4 branches this year. We have a plan to close additional 2 units by the year-end. In parallel with that, we are reviewing 10 additional locations, and we seek to build a very bespoke plan how to cover the country for next 3 years. This is due to the fact that, as you will see on the next page, the footfall in the branches continues to decrease, and we will have to react to that. The alliance ATM network remains stable. We will see some internal changes in the structure of the network. I'll come to that in 2 minutes. Total employment of the bank, stable, slightly decreasing. We see a relatively rapid decrease of the front office positions. This impacts namely the branch network and the contact center. And we see an increase in other parts of the bank, I would say, in back offices where we face increased volumes and a higher number of transactions. Also within the IT and digital perimeters, as the bank is more and more relying on digital channels, this reflects itself. And in some other parts of the bank, we also need more staff, and this is pretty much related to regulatory requirements and also to cybersecurity requirements, which are dynamically, let's say, becoming more and more challenging. On digital platform, we have 3% growth in active digital platform use, which is in line with our expectations. What is quite important here is that we have lent CZK 31.8 billion of loan volumes through the digital platform. This is nearly 56% increase against last year. And the main factor here was played by our mortgage campaign running in the second quarter and translating into volumes throughout the third quarter. This is a very good result from our perspective, also reflected in the nearly 400,000 sales transactions, which grew 9.3% by the end of the quarter. We also are pleased by increased intermediation, 64 million transactions, nearly 64 million transactions and 9% growth in that category. And what is quite important is significant growth in the service transactions, which grew 13.7%, and this takes pressure away from staffing in various parts of the bank. Looking at the branch network, we experienced steady decrease in the footfall, and this will lead to a change of strategy, how we conceive the physical coverage of the country. Nonetheless, the branches continue to play a very significant role, accounting for 55% or 56% of loan volumes and the loan volumes in the network also increased by nearly 30%, reaching a level of CZK 45 billion. The last important factor I will mention here is the client satisfaction. The branch network is appreciated. We have Net Promoter Score of more than 90. This testifies to high quality of the staff where we also have -- you will see later on in the penetration, various professional certifications, which help us to succeed in life insurance, in all insurance products and in the wealth management -- in the growth of wealth management franchise. Turning page to the contact center. Here, we are also performing, I would say, 360-degree review to make certain improvements. Inbound traffic remains stable. We have decreased the staff by more than 5%. And we have experienced or we successfully decreased the e-mail traffic, and this is related to better conception of servicing, which is available through either the digital platform or through the ATM network. The client satisfaction has improved quite significantly, 5 points. We consider this success, taking account everything else. But here, we would like to deploy more artificial intelligence. We have done it successfully on processing of e-mails. And now we are seeking ways how to make the contact center more efficient. Specifically, are looking for root causes of the inbound calls and would like to eliminate them through improvement in processes and how we do things in the bank. I think we might see the first results of that either in the middle of '27 or third quarter -- at the end of third quarter of '27. Lastly, the ATM network, as I already said, stable. What is changing is the structure of the alliance network where more than 40% is now enabled for deposits. There is significant demand for cash deposits. You can see it from the growth numbers. We are also experiencing a decline in withdrawals. Henceforth, we will -- as we have a relatively old network on average age of the machines. We will review the size of our own network in line with the commitments that we've made to the alliance. And lastly, if you look at the service transactions, this is also a relatively factor -- important factor in our ability to service the customers. So I will end my opening remarks here. I think the main message is this year, we moved the net profit target at minimum to CZK 7.1 billion. And perhaps the second message is that the third quarter was the most successful of MONETA Money Bank since we are a publicly traded company. And I thank you for your attention and patience with me, and I'll turn it over to Jan Fricek.

Jan Fricek

executive
#3

Thank you, Tomas. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I'm now on Page 17, and it's my pleasure to walk you through the profit and loss statement section. Let me repeat the key financials. In the first 9 months, MONETA delivered net profit of CZK 5.5 billion, up by 12.7% year-on-year with earnings per share of CZK 10.8 and return on tangible equity of 23.9%. Improved profitability was delivered on the back of operating income growth at 8.2%, reaching CZK 11.2 billion. And this is a combination of higher net interest income year-on-year, up by 9.7%, reaching nearly CZK 8 billion. Then, this was driven by the continuing lending growth together with ongoing repricing of the mortgage book. And also net fee and commission income line shows an increase year-on-year by 6.1%, stemming from the ongoing solid performance in the distribution of wealth management products. On the cost line, we report a stable development year-on-year, which together with the operating income growth resulted in the cost-to-income ratio reduction to 37.4%. And on the credit cost line, we report CZK 492 million or 22 basis points of the average loan portfolio, which is at the lower end of our guided range for the credit cost for the full year. Moving forward, on Page 18, we provide a detailed view on the net interest income development. As Tomas mentioned, we had a very strong third quarter, delivering year-on-year growth of 12.1% and 5.5% increase against the second quarter, which indicates a strong acceleration during the last 2 quarters. And in line with that, net interest margin went up by 20 basis points, reaching 220 basis points for the average of the third quarter. Drivers of the development are reported on the right side. Most importantly, interest income from lending is up by 16.5%, which is a function of the accelerated lending growth as well as repricing within the mortgage book. Treasury income is up year-on-year by 3.6%, supported by higher 2-week repo rate. And on the other hand, interest expense on customer deposits went up by 14.5%, which is a function of the deposit base expansion together with the gradual increase of the cost of funds in relative terms. Moving forward, on Page 19, we provide a similar view on the net fee and commission income. In the third quarter, we delivered year-on-year growth of 5.8% and stable development against the second quarter. And here, I would like to mention that in the third quarter and fourth quarter last year, we obtained extraordinary bonuses of CZK 50 million in each quarter. If adjusted for that, we would report a recurring income growth of 12.8% year-on-year. Drivers of the development are reported on the right. Firstly, third-party commission income went up by nearly CZK 100 million, which is a combination of the commission income from the wealth management products, up by 29.4% and commission income from insurance products up by 10.2%. In the second category, fee income, we report only marginal growth of CZK 13 million, which is attributable to higher transactional activity of our customers. And lastly, the growth of the fee expense category is attributable to the one-off bonuses obtained last year and the gradual increase in transactional activity of our customers. Moving forward on Page 20, we report more detail about the performance in the wealth management products distribution franchise. This year, we report year-on-year growth of the commission income by nearly 32% on the back of the outstanding amount of distributed wealth management products of 24.9%. And the commission income growth is a function of the opening fee income expansion by 11.9% and the trailer fee growth of 43.7%. Here, I would like also to emphasize that the current year profitability improvement is also attributable to a higher volume of distributed investment certificates and structured investment products generating upfront one-off commission income. Moving forward on Page 21, we report on the insurance product distribution franchise. After the slowdown reported in the first quarter, I'm glad to comment that we improved the performance. And for the first 3 quarters, our commission income is up by 5.3% if compared against the last year. And also, we distributed a higher number of insurance products sold this year. On the right-hand side, you can see that the improved performance is a function or was mostly supported by payment protection insurance as well as pension insurance, while in life insurance product distribution, we are slightly behind. Moving forward on Page 22, we can continue with the cost base. As mentioned before, we managed the cost base stable year-on-year. And in 2 out of 4 categories, we report inflation offset; in other 2 categories, namely the main personnel pressure persists in our personnel costs category, up by 5.7%, and this I will comment in more detail on the following page, while we achieved savings in the administrative cost category and also depreciation and amortization after the extension of useful life of the main fixed assets in the first quarter this year. Moving forward on Page 23, let me comment on the personnel costs in more detail. In the third quarter, we report the cost of CZK 643 million, which is stable comparing to the third quarter last year. And if we look into the composition, we achieved a marginal saving on the recurrent costs, which is a combination of average salary increase more than offset by a reduction in number of FTEs. And in the one-off category, we report in the third quarter revaluation of deferred managerial bonuses, reflecting share price development in amount of CZK 19 million. And we completed this section on Page 24 with the administrative cost development. In the third quarter, we achieved 1.8% reduction year-on-year, and this is attributable to 3 out of 4 reported categories. The most importantly, we achieved savings in IT category as a result of completion of the cloud migration last year. And also in facilities, we had less repairs and lower intensity of maintenance. On the other hand, marketing costs are up in the third quarter due to mortgage and current account campaigns running in parallel. So that's all from myself for this moment, and I will now hand over to my colleague, Andrew Gerber, who will continue with the balance sheet development. Thank you very much.

Andrew Gerber

executive
#4

Thank you, Jan, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. So moving to Page 26, we take a look at some highlights of the balance sheet development. Starting with the loan portfolio, you can see the loan portfolio grew 10.4% year-over-year, reaching CZK 317.6 billion, whilst the loan portfolio yield increased 26 basis points, reaching 511 basis points. This is driven by strong new business performance across both segments with the yield driven by a combination of repricing of the mortgage portfolio as it continued to move through refixation as well as higher rates on new lending. On the funding side, you see the funding base grew 3.8% year-over-year, reaching CZK 475.6 billion, whilst the cost of funds increased 19 basis points, reaching 227 basis points. And as Tomas said earlier, this reflects our strategy of maintaining and marginally growing the portfolio whilst trying to keep a lid on the cost of funds. Moving to Page 27, we take a more detailed look at the balance sheet. You can see that on the asset side, the growth was driven by net customer loans, which were up 10.4% year-over-year, with investment securities up 3.1% and the liquidity at the Central Bank decreasing 13% year-over-year. On the liability side, you can see all the growth is driven by the growth in the customer deposit base, up 4.5% year-over-year. Moving to Page 28, we take a look at the new lending performance of the bank. Overall new lending activity was up 39.2% year-to-date, reaching CZK 76.6 billion. And this reflects strong growth in retail, up 34.5%, driven by successful mortgage campaign that we ran in the second quarter, but also solid growth in consumer loans. And on the commercial side, you see growth of 46.4% year-over-year, and this is driven equally across the SME and small business segments, up 48.5% and 40.5%, respectively. Moving to Page 29. We look at the segment view of the balance sheet in terms of loan balances. Overall, the loan balance grew 10.4% year-over-year, as I said, with retail up 5.1% and commercial growing strongly with small business up 31.7% and SME up 17.5%. On Page 30, we take a more detailed look at the retail loan portfolio, which grew 5.1%, as I said earlier. And this was driven predominantly by mortgages, up 5.2% year-over-year, as I said, as a consequence of the strong campaign that we ran in the second quarter, but also a strong contribution from consumer lending, which is up 9.9% year-over-year. The other loans category continues to decline, down 14% year-over-year. As I said in previous quarters, this is effectively a runoff portfolio, which is why we continue to see the decline there. Similarly, looking at the commercial loan portfolio on Page 31, you see the overall portfolio grew 20.3% with strong contributions from investment loan portfolio, up 24.8% and the small business loan portfolio, up 31.7%, driven by strong performance in new lending, as we said earlier. And on Page 32, we take a look at the yield development on the loan portfolio. Overall, the loan portfolio yield increased 26 basis points, reaching 511 basis points with the retail portfolio up 30 basis points, as I said, driven predominantly by mortgages. We've had approximately CZK 30 billion that's moved through refixation this year, and that will continue into the fourth quarter and plus 10 basis points on the commercial side, is driven predominantly by new lending activity. So moving to Page 33, we look at the funding base of the bank. Overall, you can see that the funding base grew 3.8% with retail deposits up 2.5% and commercial deposits up 10.7%. On Page 34, we take a slightly different view of the retail franchise by combining retail customer deposits with Wealth Management. And you see that the combined segment grew 6.6% year-over-year, driven by a very strong performance in Wealth Management, up 24.9%. And the reason we look at this view is that 65% of the growth in the Wealth Management franchise is driven by moving of deposits from the deposit base into the wealth management, which is a strategy which we've pursued quite successfully and allows us to grow the fee income on the Wealth Management business, which Jan alluded to earlier. Moving to Page 35, we take a more conventional view of the retail portfolio. As I said before, overall, the retail deposit portfolio grew 2.5%, and you see the growth is driven predominantly by the savings and term deposits up 2.9% with the current accounts essentially flat. And this reflects the very competitive nature of the market right now, where there are a lot of competitors offering very attractive rates to bring deposits in. And we have -- as Tomas said earlier, we've tried to manage this very carefully to keep some growth whilst keeping a lid on the cost of funding. And I think we've done this quite successfully. Similarly, on Page 36, we look at the commercial deposit portfolio, where you can see the growth is a little bit more balanced between savings and term deposits up 11.9% and the current accounts up 9.5%. And finally, for this section, on Page 37, we take a look at the cost of funding development. Overall, the cost of funding increased 19 basis points, reaching 227 basis points, driven obviously by the growth in customer deposit cost, which was up 20 basis points, with retail up 17 basis points and commercial up 29 basis points. And as I say, this reflects our strategy of trying to manage very carefully the pricing of our deposit base whilst maintaining some level of growth in a very competitive market. So I think overall, it's been a successful first 3 quarters of the year for us. Strong performance in lending, particularly driven by the third quarter, but we're running a mortgage campaign at present, which, I think, will perhaps not reach the heights of the second quarter campaign, but will contribute to production in the fourth quarter. And the commercial franchise continues to go well. And on the deposit side, we continue to manage the deposit base very carefully. And I think this will come into sharp focus over the coming months as the Czech National Bank moves into a kind of tightening cycle. We expect a reasonably high probability of first hike as soon as 5th of November when they next meet, and this will certainly have an impact on the competition in the deposit market. But I think we're well placed to defend our position there. So that concludes the balance sheet section. And with that, I will hand over to Normann, who will take you through the risk metrics and asset quality. Thank you.

Carl-Norman Vokt

executive
#5

All right. Thank you, Andrew, and good morning to you. We continue with the risk section on Page 39 with a summary of key risk metrics for the first 9 months of this year compared to '25. So let me start on the top left of the chart. So as you can see, cost of risk came in at 22 basis points, which is a 6 basis point increase compared to the same period last year. The increase is largely driven by higher-than-planned new loan originations and as well as one single commercial default, which we reported out to you already during the Q2 earnings release. When it comes to loan loss provisioning coverage, here, we saw a drop, which is largely driven by the releases of management overlays, which we did in the first 6 months of this year and also the update of our macro variables within the IFRS 9 reserving model, which led to a drop to 1.11%. Total nonperforming loan coverage was largely flat year-over-year, landing at 120.4%. And last but not least, the NPL ratio on the top -- on the bottom left landed on an all-time low, driven by strong core performance as well as debt sales. This takes us to Page 40, where we have a more granular view on cost of risk for the last 7 quarters. So in absolute amounts, cost of risk came in at CZK 492 million or 22 basis points, which is well within the updated guidance of 20 bps to 30 bps. Apart from the benefits from the releases of provisions from the management overlays and the macro update, we also got support from gains on NPL sales in the amount of CZK 65 million in the first 9 months. Continuing on the next page, Page 41. Here, we have 5 data points each of the loan portfolio balances, coverages, and NPLs. If you look at the gross loan portfolio balances, these grew by almost CZK 30 billion or 10.2%, whilst at the same time, balances on provisions dropped by 8% or around CZK 300 million. Again, this is largely driven by the releases of the management overlays. Loan loss provision coverage and total NPL coverage, we covered before. And if you look at the NPL balances, those dropped by CZK 250 million or 7.3% and landed a tick shy of CZK 3 billion at the end of Q3. The next page, Page 42. Here, we have an overview of NPL inflows and outflows, just focusing on the third quarter. Here, the NPL inflow was slightly below the Q2 level and the ending balance is CZK 60 million higher compared to June '26. That is largely driven by the fact that we had lower debt sales in the third quarter, which we have every year compared to the second quarter. Otherwise, I think the balances would have remained flat as well. And the last page of the risk section, Page 43. Here, we have delinquency ratios for the last 6 years. In a nutshell, we observed a stable development across delinquency buckets, which developed in a stable corridor within plus minus 5 basis points to 10 basis points. So summarizing the risk section, I think overall, we had a solid credit performance with 22 basis points of cost of risk, well within the guidance for '26. Overall, we benefited clearly from the gains of NPL sales, management overlay releases and the macro update. And overall, going forward, beyond '26, we expect that cost of risk will slightly increase to a more normalized level, which is reflected also in our midterm guidance of 25 basis points to 45 basis points. And with that, I hand over back to Jan Fricek, who will be sharing with you more details on the liquidity. Thank you.

Jan Fricek

executive
#6

Thank you, Normann. Ladies and gentlemen, let me now turn your attention on Page 45, where we report on our liquidity position. Also in the third quarter, MONETA maintained a strong liquidity position. However, as a result of the loan portfolio growth exceeding the funding base expansion, the volume of free liquidity slightly decreased, which is visible across liquidity ratios on the screen. Loan-to-deposit ratio went up from 66% to 70% and share of high-quality liquid assets in customer deposits went down from 40% to 35%. Below that, we report on the regulatory ratios, both are well above 100% regulatory limit, namely net stable funding ratio decreased from 177% to 165% and liquidity coverage ratio went down from 335% to 282%. And if you turn the page, we report on the high-quality liquid assets development. You can see that the position went down year-on-year by 6.5%, landing at CZK 160.3 billion. And the reduction or the decline is attributable to the accelerated lending growth, slower deposit base expansion and also repayment of Tier 2 bond in September this year. Now please let me continue with the capital management, starting on Page 48. And we start with the capital management on a consolidated basis. Here, the regulatory capital went up from CZK 30.8 billion to CZK 34.5 billion at the end of September, supported by the successful AT1 issuance. And this position corresponds to capital adequacy ratio of 19.03% with an excess of 3.53% above the capital management target. And out of that, the CET1 excess stood at 2.45% or at CZK 4.4 billion in absolute amount, which corresponds to CZK 8.70 per share. Moving forward, on Page 49, we provide more detail to the capital position on consolidated level. If I start with the chart on -- in the top left corner, it shows the CET1 excess capital development during the first 3 quarters. It started or we started at CZK 2.7 billion at the end of last year, and it went up to CZK 4.4 billion at the end of September. The growth is a combination of AT1 issuance, also current year net profit, the retained portion, and this was offset by RWA growth, reflecting the loan portfolio expansion. You can see that at the end of September, the available capital stood at CZK 9.4 billion, which is a sum of the dividend accrual, representing 90% of the net profit in amount of nearly CZK 5 billion and the excess CET1 capital reported at the end. And this corresponds to CZK 18.4 per share of distributable capital. In the chart below, we report the risk-weighted assets, the position, the total position went up to 181.2% as a result of the lending growth on portfolio expansion. And the RWA density increased by 1.6% since the beginning of the year as a result of the lending growth utilizing free liquidity. And if we look at on Page 50, I can comment on the capital position on individual level. Here, the regulatory capital together with MREL instrument reached CZK 49 billion against CZK 44.4 billion reported at the end of 2025. And this position corresponds to MREL adequacy ratio of 27.4%, which is by 5.1% above the capital management target. Here, I'd like to comment on the management buffer, the 125 basis points management buffer contains 25 basis points as an anticipatory buffer reflecting countercyclical buffer increase announced effectively from the 1st of July next year. And on the other hand, in the capital management target, we haven't reflected the recently announced reduction of the SREP requirement by 20 basis points from 200 basis points to 180 basis points effectively from the 1st of January next year. So that was my last comment, and I will now hand over to Tomas Spurny, who will continue with the guidance and final remarks. Thank you.

Tomáš Spurný

executive
#7

Well, we've covered it. We increased the guidance to CZK 7.1 billion. I would like to stress that this is the minimum net profit target. And let's hope that we get there. Thank you very much for your attention, for your participation and for your patience with us. And now I would like to turn it to -- thank you.

Operator

operator
#8

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Thomas Unger.

Thomas Unger

analyst
#9

Congratulations on the strong results. Firstly, maybe you can give us something on the outlook for 2027. You've raised the guidance now, profit guidance for 2026. It's above the target, the currently valid target for '27. I understand that this will be updated with the release of the '26 results. But can we expect an upward revision for those as well and the 2027 guidance given the NIM development and the strong loan growth that you see now. Next, on the net interest margin increase now in Q3, again, on the repricing of the mortgage book, how much further repricing potential remains in the existing loan book? And do you expect the current NIM level to be sustainable in 2027, given the rising deposit -- potentially rising deposit costs and higher policy rates in the Czech Republic? And then thirdly, more sensitive topic, potential bank taxes given the recent political statements, how do you assess the risk of additional bank taxes being introduced in the Czech Republic? And then if I may, last one, you've decided against an extraordinary dividend this year despite remaining in excess capital. What would need to change for management to reconsider extraordinary distributions in 2027? And what are the key constraints? Is it asset growth capital or the broader macroeconomic development?

Tomáš Spurný

executive
#10

Okay. Do we start with #1 or we go to number 5? Let's start with number one. The answer on revision of the forecast or on the guidance, rather, guidance of a minimum net profit, the answer is yes. We will upgrade it and there is a 99% probability that it will go up and 1% probability that it stays the same unless something changes -- unless something fundamentally changes. On repricing of mortgages, we have in 2027, CZK 15 billion?

Jan Fricek

executive
#11

CZK 28 billion.

Tomáš Spurný

executive
#12

Yes.

Jan Fricek

executive
#13

And there is still some room for the upside in yield. The majority of the upside were already consumed in the last 2 years. However, going forward, we project still about 100 basis points, 90 basis points to 110 basis points upside in the repricing.

Tomáš Spurný

executive
#14

So CZK 28 billion in 2027. And you know how much we have till the end of the year? 7.5...

Jan Fricek

executive
#15

Till the end of the...

Andrew Gerber

executive
#16

CZK 9 billion to go this year. Total, CZK 58 billion, this year.

Tomáš Spurný

executive
#17

CZK 9 billion to go this year. And the letters are out already pretty much with rate and we have retention rate on the mortgages north of 85% on the repriced mortgages. The third question?

Unknown Executive

executive
#18

[ Bank tax ] risks.

Tomáš Spurný

executive
#19

Well, I will not say anything, sort of, revealing, but if you look at the rhetoric it's -- the risk is very high and high risk is anything with a probability of 60%. So I would comment it like that. We might get lucky with respect to the parliamentary process because it might not be so easy to get it in for '27, and they cannot backdate it. So it cannot be retroactive, so we might get lucky. But I think there are several factors impacting that decision, the state budget deficit for 2027 projected at a level of CZK 386 billion, and Linda will correct me if I'm right. So this is under the debate. If that happens, I mean, the pressure increases. Second, it is political program promises of the ANO movement where they have said that they will make mortgages more accessible and less expensive. This is not delivered from the nominal point of view. I would argue that if you index it for the yield curve, then they would see actually that the mortgages are slightly cheaper. In my discussions, I also advised that they should regulate brokers, which we don't use. But brokers make the mortgages more expensive because you have to amortize their commissions, which are north of 2%, into the price of the mortgage. So we have a price point advantage against the large banks. And what else is there? I think there is also -- if you talk to some of the elected officials dismay over the fact that the rate differential between euro rates and Czech crown is, in their view, too high, and it should be tightened. So that's the other argument. And the last argument is that banks make too much money. The Czech banking sector, as far as I know, produces around 15% return on equity between 14% and 15%. So is that too high? Well, it depends on vantage point, doesn't it? So I would say the risk is fairly high this time. The fourth part of the question, extraordinary dividends. So the adjective. Is it an adjective? Extraordinary describes the nature of the action we have taken in the last 2 years. I think it's well summarized in my letter to shareholders where I cite the obvious. Liquidity is becoming dear. Number 1, exogenous reason is the government seeks to diversify funding of the government deficit through offer of government bonds online. Effectively, if you buy government bonds, you don't pay the withholding tax or interest. So we are under pressure. The entire banking sector will be under continuous pressure from this effort. Number 2, the Central Bank offers municipalities now a rate of 3.7%, which is pretty much at the level of the repo rate. Out there in the system, there are CZK 800 billion of deposits, it's about 10% of the deposit base of Czech Republic, which are related to municipalities. So if the municipalities are woken up and transfer these funds to the Central Bank, then the competition for liquidity will be higher. Third reason is we have had strong growth in the loan book. So we have to deploy the capital beneath that. The fourth reason is that if you look at the CZK 16.3 billion of wealth management sales, this is 65% funded through conversion of our deposits. And there is the ever present pressure from the challenger banks. So all in all, we are seeking to preserve liquidity. That's the first reason. I don't want to also forget the fact that in January 2027, we intend to call Tier 2 bond with a nominal value of CZK 2.6 billion in order to decrease the cost of funding and the bond is ineffective for us. So we will have this liquidity outlay. Henceforth, we have decided not to pay the extraordinary dividend, which is again, extraordinary. It's really interesting to me how something which is extraordinary turns into regular in minds of people. So we see headwinds coming, and we are trying to mitigate those headwinds by being prudent with respect to the liquidity. Second reason, quite frankly, is that we've had a SREP review. The SREP review yielded in our case, decrease of the Pillar 2 by 20 basis points. So from 2%, we went to 1.8%. This gives us a bit more free capital. Nonetheless, there is a trade-off with the Central Bank. The Central Bank likes us as long as we are capitalized at the current level, and we don't want to be in the situation that our reputational capital with the Central Bank is spent on decreasing the level of capitalization of the bank because we have worked for the last 3 years very hard to get the SREP down, and there is evidence of being successful in that respect. And we have worked for last 11 or 10 years to build reputational capital with the regulator. And we are aiming to become the Czech champion of banking. So that's the other reason why we want to maintain the capitalization level for the moment. So this is with respect to the decision taken now. Now going forward, we very well understand that the dividend yield is a significant component in the valuation of the bank, and we will behave accordingly, taking into account the realities of the operating environment and the tax regime of the Czech Republic, but that's another pressure -- potential pressure on liquidity if they decide to collect money from us through the sector tax. So we are just being careful. And I would like to again underline that the importance of dividend is very clear to us. Is there anything else? Thank you and we hope you will revise, by the way, the view on MONETA, because it's relatively antique.

Thomas Unger

analyst
#20

It's -- yes, I've updated it. Highly appreciate it.

Operator

operator
#21

[Operator Instructions] And we'll just have a brief pause for any additional questions to be registered.

Tomáš Spurný

executive
#22

Well, thank you. We have no additional questions. Do we? Excellent.

Operator

operator
#23

Currently have no further questions. I'll hand back to Mr. Spurny now for any closing remarks.

Tomáš Spurný

executive
#24

I would like to thank the management team for having patience with me. And with that, I truly hope that when we get together again on, what is it? February 2, that we will bring good news to the table, which is meeting or potentially exceeding the minimum net profit target. And as I said, we will make strong consideration. We understand the importance of dividend with respect to MONETA shareholders. So with that, we wish you a pleasant weekend, and we truly hope that we will deliver the guidance. Thank you very much for your participation.

Operator

operator
#25

Thank you. This concludes today's webinar. Thank you all for joining, and you may now disconnect from the call.

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