NextEd Group Limited (NXD) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

[Audio Gap] FY '25 Results Presentation. I'm Mark Kehoe, CEO, and I'm joined today by our CFO, Michael Fahey. Now on Slide 2. So today, I'll take you through our key highlights, where we are, the decisions we have made and how we are managing the business in the current climate. After that, I'll hand over to Michael to take you through the financials in detail before we cover the immediate outlook and open for questions. So now on Slide 3. In a challenging market, we remain disciplined, focusing on stability, cost management and operational efficiency to navigate current conditions. Looking at the financial performance. Regulatory changes have impacted revenue and profitability, both down year-on-year. However, we have moved quickly to stabilize our financial position through aggressive cost management and improved cash flow discipline. We delivered $1 million in positive operating cash flow, a $2.9 million improvement year-on-year, reflecting strong working capital management and cost discipline. Our previously announced $5 million in annualized savings is on track and an additional $2 million was secured for FY '26. We ended the half with $13.7 million in cash, increasing to $14.1 million by 31 January 2025, and we remain debt-free. We have rationalized our property footprint, successfully exiting underutilized locations in Melbourne, Brisbane and the Gold Coast, reducing costs while improving efficiency. Looking at our operational progress. We saw strong student growth in key areas, 75% growth in International Vocational students, particularly in management, hospitality and health care. Domestic Vocational grew 14% year-on-year and Go Study delivered 10% growth, supporting a more sustainable revenue mix. The International House transaction has been very successful with over 1,900 students enrolled, surpassing our 1,800 target and generating $13 million in invoiced revenue. This will help deliver improved campus utilization by approximately 20 percentage points in H2 FY '25, ensuring more efficient use of existing facilities without significant additional costs. Technology & Design is under review, and we've recognized a $5 million impairment. And then just looking at the strategic actions and growth, a rapid assessment or audit was completed. This is a critical initiative to assess company performance and prioritize immediate actions. This led to a targeted cost-out -- to targeted cost-out actions implemented in February 2025, delivering an additional $2 million in annualized savings for FY '26. As a part of this, we are relocating corporate head office into existing facilities, consolidating space and further reducing overhead costs. We continue to broaden student options by introducing new courses in high-demand fields, including marketing automation, e-commerce and IT, ensuring we remain competitive and aligned with industry trends. The strategic review is underway. The process is well advanced, and we'll provide an update in Q4. And finally, we're well placed to participate in industry consolidation as opportunities arise. Our approach is clear: acknowledge the challenge, execute with discipline and position NextEd for long-term growth. Moving on to the financial summary. I'm now on Slide 5. Our financial performance reflects the external pressures we've been managing. Revenue declined 21% year-on-year, a direct impact of lower international student enrollments following government policy changes. EBITDA and NPAT was affected by lower revenue, though we partially mitigated this through cost reductions and a shift to higher-margin courses. Operating cash flow remained positive, supported by working capital discipline and cost reductions. And we ended the half with $13.7 million in cash and no financial debt. And as I mentioned, cash has increased to $14.1 million by 31 January 2025. While these results reflect the reality of the sector today, the actions we've taken are ensuring the business is positioned appropriately for the current environment. Now on Slide 5 (sic) [ Slide 6 ]. So we continue to operate in a challenging market, shaped by regulatory changes that have significantly impacted international student enrollments. But rather than waiting for conditions to improve, we have acted decisively to strengthen our business and position NextEd for the future. In a market like this, consolidation is inevitable, and we moved quickly to secure the student enrollment rights from International House following its collapse. This was executed successfully, ensuring continuity for many of the displaced students while strengthening our market position. A key outcome of this transaction has been stronger campus utilization, making more efficient use of our existing facilities while absorbing these students without significant additional costs. We increased focus on management, hospitality and health care courses, leading to 74% growth in these programs. We delivered $5 million in annualized cost savings in FY '25. We have streamlined our footprint, exiting underutilized locations, reducing costs and improving campus efficiency. And one of my first actions as CEO was to conduct a rapid audit to assess company performance and prioritize immediate actions. This led to: one, the decision to relocate our corporate head office to the underutilized Kelly Street campus, which will allow us to sublet the former site and reduce overhead costs; we've reviewed and rightsized the business, including targeted staff changes and operational efficiencies action this month to align with current market conditions; and as a result, we've actioned an additional $2 million in annualized savings across those initiatives, bringing total projected savings to $7 million in FY '26 annualized savings. These actions have stabilized the business, strengthened our position and positioned us for future opportunities. The next few slides will expand on a few of these details. So now on Slide 8. The International House transaction was more than just a business decision. It was about responding decisively to a sector challenge and ensuring that impacted students had a clear path forward. In December 2024, we secured first rights to International House students, committing $700,000 in cash. By acting decisively, we ensured that students were given clarity and certainty from day 1. Since then, we've executed with discipline and focus. Over 1,900 students have reenrolled into Greenwich, exceeding our stated target of 1,800. $13 million in future tuition revenue has been invoiced, reinforcing the value of this transaction. We moved quickly to gain regulatory approval for the Advanced Diploma of IT, allowing first enrollments in March 2025 across multiple locations. We ensured a smooth transition of displayed students. Course extension initiatives are in place for International House ELICOS students, providing them with both with clear study pathways and incremental revenue for NextEd. We've also signed 66 new agents, further strengthening our student recruitment network and enhancing future enrollment growth. Importantly, we successfully integrated IH students into our existing campus facilities without requiring additional rental space. And this has resulted in about a 20 percentage point improvement in campus utilization across Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and the Gold Coast, increasing efficiency without additional cost. This process has reinforced NextEd's ability to move quickly when opportunities arise. Now on Slide 9. The mix of our international students has changed significantly in response to external conditions. English language enrollments declined 52%, reflecting higher visa rejection rates. At the same time, higher-margin vocational courses in management, hospitality and health care grew 74% year-on-year. Health care has been introduced as a new category, now representing 7% of total international enrollments. As a result, vocational students now represent 63% of our total student base, up from 33% a year ago, and we're continuing to expand our course portfolio, introducing new vocational programs that align with industry demand and student needs. This shift reflects a necessary adjustment to the changing market landscape where visa policy changes have directly impacted English language enrollments. And while this transition does not fully offset the decline in overall student numbers, it supports revenue stability and protects margins in a more difficult market. Now on Slide 10. As I mentioned at the AGM, cash and cost management has been a key focus area. We have continued to take deliberate steps to ensure our cost base reflects the current market reality. Operating costs reduced from $27.6 million to $24.8 million in H1 FY '25, driven by efficiencies across property, staffing and general expenses. We secured $5 million in annualized savings for FY '25, and we've already locked in a further $2 million for FY '26, bringing total annualized savings to $7 million by FY '26 when compared against FY '24. We will continue optimizing our cost structure, building on the significant savings already achieved while identifying further efficiencies to ensure we remain agile and resilient as possible in this environment. I'll now pass over to Michael.

Thanks, Mark. And I'd also like to add my welcome to today's call. Moving to the income statement on Slide 12. Overall revenue declined by 21% versus the prior period. Businesses exposed to the federal government actions to reduce international student numbers were negatively impacted, particularly English language course revenues, which were down 46% and Academy of Interactive Technology revenues within the T&D segment down 14%. However, there are also positive outcomes with strong growth in hospitality courses, up 158%, management courses up 17% and newly launched health care courses contributing incremental revenues of $1.5 million. Go Study up 10% and Domestic Vocational up 14%, also contributed to growing revenue. Gross margin improved to 53% from 51% in the prior period, with the increase due to growth in vocational courses for international students, which attract higher margins than English language courses. Operating costs of $19.1 million were $3 million lower than the prior period as the benefits of cost reduction actions have been realized. EBITDA before impairment was $5.8 million, down from $8.3 million in the prior period, with the revenue declines partly mitigated by cost reductions. A noncash impairment charge over noncurrent assets of $5.3 million, $5 million of which was in T&D and $300,000 of which was in corporate was recognized during the half year, triggered by business performance and uncertain outlook. Normalizing for onetime items, including impairment and amortization of previously acquired intangibles, NPATA, was negative $2.2 million, down from $1.4 million in the prior period. Turning to the segment performance on Slide 13. Revenues in the largest segment, International Vocational declined 26%. We've mentioned that English language revenues declined by $18 million or $46 million (sic) [ 46% ] due to the disruption associated with visas for new students and revenues for management, hospitality and health care grew strongly by $6 million or 74% versus PCP as completing English language students moved on to vocational courses. Technology & Design revenue and EBITDA results have been disappointing with declines in both AIT and [ Coder ]. AIT domestic student intake in February has increased versus prior period, but challenges remain with regaining international student numbers. A series of actions have been put in place for the second half of FY '25, including further cost reductions and amended pricing to stimulate demand in Coder. Go Study delivered increased revenues and profits, largely from the onshore Australian business and domestic VET continued the momentum from the previous half year. Corporate costs were reduced by 27% following the cost-out actions undertaken at the end of FY '24. Turning to cash flows on Slide 14. Operating cash flow for the half year was positive $1 million, $2.9 million higher than the previous corresponding period. NextEd continues to focus a lot of attention on cash, working capital and cost management. Investing activities as flagged in previous periods was expected to be less than $1 million for the whole of this year. Excluding cash payments related to the International House transaction, only about $150,000 was spent on CapEx in the first half. Financing activities largely relate to campus lease payments. Net cash consumed in the period was $5.6 million, significantly less than the previous corresponding period where NextEd had a working capital outflow and significant CapEx spend. Cash balances at the end of December were $13.7 million, and NextEd continues to have no financial debt. During the period, the CBA bank facility was renegotiated and $3.5 million of cash is restricted to support bank guarantees, and this represents approximately 50% of the value of bank guarantees on issue. Cash at the end of January was $14.1 million, an increase of $0.4 million over December, boosted by new course intakes and re-enrolling of international house students. One month doesn't necessarily signify a trend, but it is a positive sign. Turning to the balance sheet on Page 15. And as noted previously, NextEd has no financial debt and $13.7 million of cash on hand. Contract liabilities, which represents amounts paid or due and payable from students for future tuition in December was slightly down versus June. However, contract liabilities have increased materially to $38 million in January with strong numbers of international vacation student commencements, including re-enrolled students from International House. Vocational students are generally invoiced for their course in advance with payments received every 2 months. I'll now hand back to Mark.

Thanks, Michael. Now looking at the immediate outlook and on to Slide 17. So as we enter the second half of the year, it's clear that market conditions remain challenging. The changes in government policy around international education continue to impact the sector. But through the decisive actions we've taken, we're building a more stable, resilient and competitive business. The IH integration is progressing well, reinforcing our standing in the market and ability to execute. And we're well placed for additional consolidation opportunities. Our new course offerings are expanding student options, ensuring we remain competitive and aligned with industry demand. We have secured $7 million in annualized savings for FY '26, demonstrating our commitment to disciplined cost management and operational efficiency. And our strategic review is well underway, and we'll update the market on its findings in Q4. The current landscape presents challenges, but our ability to adapt, combined with a clear focus on stability and execution is strengthening the business today while positioning NextEd for the future. We remain committed to our students, staff and shareholders, ensuring we make the right decisions now to drive long-term success. So that concludes the presentation. Thanks very much for your time today. We'll now answer the questions that have come in.

Okay. First question that's come in. There's a few parts to this question. But the first item asked is, could we please clarify the mix of courses for International House students that have rolled across English and vocational? So the number of students that we had foreseen to enroll in English language courses was originally 950 and about 850 in vocational. The actual number of students that we have enrolled in English language is about 800 and 1,100 in VET. So we have a higher proportion of vocational students. The second part of that question is, by delineation, do you consider many of these to have tenures around 9 to 15 months? Is that fair? We would say that the vocational courses generally probably about 12 to 18 months is the typical length of vocational courses. Second part -- the next question that we have is, any additional detail you can provide on how to think about hospitality and health care offerings moving forward? Key intake periods extend to which student cohorts will roll off in calendar year '25? Yes. So we have intakes every second month into our vocational courses, including hospitality and health care. Certainly, we did some special intakes in December, where students were brought in ahead of what was going to be the perceived caps that were coming in. Those students will stay for the extent of calendar year '25. And so, we're not expecting great amounts of roll-offs in those courses. Third question that we had, is there any further scope for property rationalization? Mark, do you want to take this one?

Yes. So as you can see, this remains a focus for us, and we act as required. So that will continue to be a focus for us. We continue to look at the balance between demand and supply. And as required, we'll make decisions on property.

Okay. Next question we have is, can you provide some further details on the additional $2 million cost savings? Are they related to property, employee or other operating costs? And the second part of the question, are there any one-off costs associated with achieving those savings?

So the majority of that $2 million cost savings are in staff redundancies that was actioned in February of this year. There are some one-off costs associated with that. We don't see that they'll wash out this financial year, but the $2 million annualized savings will occur in FY '26.

Okay. So that's all the questions that we've had today. I'll wait a minute or so to see if there's any further questions that come through. It doesn't look like it. So...

Thanks very much for your time today, and we look forward to seeing you in Q4, we present our strategy update. Thank you.