NextEd Group Limited (NXD) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the NextEd Group Limited HY '26 Results. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Mark Kehoe, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. I'm Mark Kehoe, CEO of NextEd, and with me is Andrew Nye, our CFO, COO. Today, we'll focus on three things: clear evidence of earnings improvement, strengthening our position and the next phase of disciplined growth. This half represents continued execution following the reset delivered in FY '25. We'll cover highlights. We'll go to operating performance, then Andrew will take you through the financial results in detail before I return to close. So let me start with the headline performance. H1 FY '26 demonstrates tangible progress. Profitability has materially improved. Underlying EBITDA increased 16.7% to $6.7 million. NPAT loss reduced by 92%. That is operating leverage flowing through. Revenue quality is improving. The mix continues to shift towards higher-margin vocational and higher education pathways. Student lifetime value is increasing and AI is embedded across curriculum and operations. Structural cost discipline is embedded. Operating costs are down 9% and the shared operating platform is leaner and more scalable. And we're cash generative and debt-free. Operating cash flow was $3 million. We closed with $16 million cash and no borrowings. This is a materially stronger earnings and cash profile than 12 months ago. Looking at the financial summary. Revenue was $45.6 million, down 2% on the pcp with International up 1%. Underlying EBITDA was $6.7 million, up 16.7%. NPAT loss reduced to $0.7 million. Operating cash flow increased to $3 million, more than triple the prior period, and we closed the half with $16 million in cash with no external borrowings. The key takeaway is this, the lower cost base and improved revenue mix are translating to earnings improvement and stronger cash conversion. Turning now to International, our largest and most scalable operating segment. Greenwich continues to gain share in a disciplined policy environment. ELICOS market share is now nearly 19%, up 8.8% year-on-year. Our vocational market share is 2.7%, up 69% year-on-year, translating into 30% more international students in these high-margin courses. Visa approval rates remain 26% above the industry average, reinforcing our compliance strength and student mix. And at the same time, the lifetime value has increased to over $8,000 per student, an increase of 35% year-on-year. Higher education pathways are extending duration and deepening student value. You can see on the chart how the mix continues to shift towards vocational and pathway programs. Students are studying longer, progressing through programs and contributing more durable revenue. The strategic intent is clear: expand share in one of Australia's largest growing export sectors while strengthening mix and lifetime value. In parallel, we're building capability that improves execution and scalability. AI is now embedded into how we operate and how we deliver education. And this is not experimentation. It is applied capability. On the implementation side, we have delivered $300,000 in savings at Greenwich with further automation underway. This has been achieved by deploying AI-driven automation across student application workflows, integrating document recognition and robotic processing directly into our core enrollment system. It's a live example of how AI can deliver tangible cost savings today and scale further efficiencies with our proportional cost growth. OpenAI Codex is integrated into the AIT IT degree, positioning AIT among the first institutions in the world to embed this capability into structured learning. An AI Foundation's Curricular program will be made available to over 7,000 students from March at no additional cost. It provides applied AI capability that is increasingly demanded by employers and differentiates NextEd in a competitive market. And our unique and market-leading collaboration with OpenAI positions NextEd at the forefront of applied AI in education delivery. And importantly, why this matters? Operational efficiency and cost leverage. We're automating workflows and reducing manual processing in a labor-intensive model. Improved recruitment efficiency, higher conversion rates and stronger retention analytics supporting revenue durability. Scalability, AI supports enrollment growth without proportional cost growth and new workforce and corporate revenue pathways, AI literacy and applied AI programs open incremental B2B opportunities. The key message here is simple. AI is an execution lever. It supports margin improvement, strengthens product relevance and enhances scalability while reinforcing our differentiation in the market. Andrew will now step through the financial performance.

Thanks, Mark. This slide shows the impact of the FY '25 reset flowing through with a step change in profitability despite a softer revenue line. Group revenue was $45.7 million, down 2% on the prior comparable period. Importantly, International was up 1% year-on-year with Vocational enrollment growth continuing to offset weaker ELICOS volumes. Gross profit was $24.1 million, and the gross margin was broadly maintained. The key movement is in operating costs, down 9% with the permanent cost actions implemented through FY '25 continuing to benefit H1. Underlying EBITDA of $6.7 million was up $1 million with the margin improving by 2.3 percentage points. At the bottom line, the statutory net loss after tax reduced by 92%, reflecting improved trading performance and a cleanup result versus the prior period. Turning to the segment view. This slide highlights disciplined execution across the portfolio and where the earnings growth is coming from. International remains the earnings anchor. Revenue was up 1% to $33.8 million with vocational growth continuing to offset softer English volumes. EBITDA was $6.2 million, broadly stable year-on-year. Technology and Design is a standout improvement. Revenue was down, but earnings increased to $1.8 million, reflecting the restructured cost base and tighter delivery model within AIT. Domestic Vocational was a soft spot. Revenue was down 21% to $3.5 million, primarily reflecting the impact of government funding changes. EBITDA reduced accordingly, and this is an area of focus as the leadership reset progresses. Go Study performed strongly with revenue up 10% and EBITDA up 75%, reflecting stronger recruitment activity and operating leverage. Overall, the group EBITDA uplift is being driven by improved performance of T&D and Go Study momentum, whilst International remains stable. This slide is the clearest demonstration that the cost reset is real and structural. Since H1 '24, we've permanently removed $4.8 million or 17.4% from the total cost base for the 6-month period. The reduction is broad-based. Salary costs are lower from the benefit of FY '25 restructuring. Property costs have stepped down as we rationalize surplus space and other operating costs are tighter and more disciplined. Property optimization continues. We executed 3 sublease arrangements at the start of this calendar year, which will deliver around $0.5 million per annum additional benefit, and we continue to progress landlord discussions, particularly on larger CBD footprints to better align leased area with utilization. Weekday utilization remains around 50% across the national network. So we are continuing to optimize the footprint whilst maintaining high-quality delivery and a strong student experience. On the balance sheet, the key message is normal first half seasonality with a strong cash position retained and no external bank debt. Cash at 31 December was $16 million. The movement from June largely reflects the normal half year unwind in working capital, consistent with our intake and term start timing. The negative working capital position is structural. It reflects tuition received in advance and contract liabilities move with term start timing. Importantly, our forward contracted tuition book remains strong at $40.4 million, broadly in line with June, supporting revenue visibility. Lease liabilities reduced by $4.8 million since June, reflecting the benefit of executed subleases and the package of time, and we did not enter any new lease arrangements in the period. Overall, this is a simpler, cleaner balance sheet. We have strong liquidity, no bank debt and improving flexibility as property optimization continues. Turning to the cash flow. Operating cash generation strengthened in the half. Operating cash flow was $3.3 million, up from $1 million in the prior period, driven by tighter working capital management and ongoing cost control. You can see that through lower supplier and employee payments year-on-year. Investing outflows were minimal, reflecting our established campus footprint and limited capital intensity. We are not consuming cash on campus builds. Financing outflows were $5.7 million, largely relating to lease repayments consistent with the group's lease profile. The overall cash movement reflects the normal seasonal unwind in H1. But importantly, we exited the half with $16 million in cash, a business that is generating operating cash with low CapEx requirements and a progressively declining lease footprint. Mark?

Thanks, Andrew. So let me be clear about what this half represents, what we have delivered. Underlying EBITDA up nearly 17%. NPAT loss materially reduced, structural cost efficiencies embedded, positive cash flow, $16 million cash and no debt, high-margin mix with improving lifetime value and AI delivering cost savings. Now we move to growth, expanding international market share, deepening vocational and higher education penetration, increasing student lifetime value and retention, targeting skill shortage sectors aligned to workforce demand, leveraging AI for operational efficiency and differentiation and maintaining disciplined capital allocation. Compared to a year ago, this is a materially stronger company, cash generative, earnings improving, the trajectory has changed. NextEd operates at meaningful scale in a structural growth market. From here, we build on this performance, improving earnings and expanding with discipline. Thank you for your time this morning. We're happy to take questions.

So there's a question from Peter [indiscernible]. The question is, after the improved operating cash flow performance in the first half, how should we be thinking about the second half operating cash flow given the seasonality that usually exists in terms of cash? I can answer that question. So all things being equal, we'd expect a slight uptick in the second half operating cash flow. The timing of term starts around June. You would have seen that from June 2025 shows -- provides a higher cash balance in June typically, all things being equal.

A question here from Joseph. Are you able to comment more on revenue growth going forward, giving some more color? So yes, as we explained, we continue to look to expand our market share as we move more into vocational and higher education penetration. There are potential opportunities in the B2B AI space that we're exploring at the moment. We operate in a constrained environment from an International sector, and we see improvement on the domestic side as well. Go Study, which we haven't spoken about is performing well, and we hope to see continued revenue growth there at the same time.

Joseph, probably another thing to call out is within Vocational education. So you'll see that our share has improved to 2.6% or 2.8%. There is significant growth potential for us within International and Vocational. So that -- we've got a really good product mix. We have brought early child care onto the books from February this year. It had a really strong start, really strong launch. So working through and gaining share in existing courses is clearly an opportunity for us as well.

So a question here from Phil. What can you tell us about the strategy for domestic vocation? What's the strategy here to improve this business? So you would have seen, Phil, that the year-on-year numbers for domestic have come back. What we've done is we've reset that business. We've got new management in place and already seeing an improvement there. We're applying greater discipline from a sales perspective. We do think there's great opportunity in Domestic Vocational for us as well. I think traditionally, it hasn't been a focus for the business. As I said, we've reset. We've got a new general manager running that business. They've already seen improvement in the processes there. So we see -- understand that Domestic represents a relatively small component of our business currently. It's still very important for us, and we think there is a great opportunity to grow that further. A question here from [indiscernible]. A couple of questions, please. What has driven market share gains across ELICOS and VET? Should we expect to see share -- continue to see share gains. How are you thinking about operating costs going forward given lower pcp. So I might talk about the share gains. So Greenwich is recognized as the leader or one of the leaders in ELICOS, in particular in Australia and obviously growing at the same time. We're seeing a contraction in the market. So market share growth has come through a number of ways. There's been -- we picked up share through International House closure. But organically, we're seeing a growth in that market now as well. So approximately just less than 1 in 5 students who are studying ELICOS in Australia are now coming to Greenwich. We deliver terrific student outcomes, the process that we -- and the engagement we have with our agents and the student mix that we're recruiting from around the world is also strong. So it's a function of our compliance levels, our visa approval rates, the quality of the education that we provide. And in a contracting market, we're picking up share. In the case of VET, you can see that shift proportionately is moving more to VET. We've launched a number of new courses over the last 18 months and have continued to do so this year with early childhood, and we'd like to think that our market share will continue to grow in those areas. As Andrew mentioned before, if you're looking at those market share numbers, arguably a greater opportunity to grow in VET than ELICOS, and that's an area that we're concentrating on.

The second part of Matt's question was around operating costs for the full year. So back at the AGM, we guided to operating cost reductions for FY '26 of $0.5 million to $1 million. Looking at where we're at now and the outlook to the end of June, we are looking more to have operating costs lower by $1 million to $1.5 million versus FY '25 full year.

There's a question here from Christopher. There's been recent media articles regarding upskilling staff in the economy, [indiscernible] be targeting corporate clients with regard to workforce training with respect to AI implementation. We do see an opportunity in that space. The collaboration that we have with OpenAI and the general curiosity and need for AI foundational literacy skills across the Board is clear, and we're looking to address that in a couple of ways. As I mentioned before, we're looking to roll out AI foundation courses for our existing students, but we do see an opportunity to extend that IP and the skills we have in AI foundations and literacy into that B2B space. So we do think there is an opportunity for us to explore that. Paul, can you talk about expectations on improved operating leverage through implementing AI initiatives? We've already -- we provide that example that we provided with Greenwich, I think is a great terrific proof point. So what we've done there is help automate the admissions process, and it's already delivering around $300,000 a year in savings. It's a real life proof point of how it can deliver tangible cost savings today and scale further efficiencies. We think there are multiple opportunities for AI to be applied in improving our processes, delivering a better student outcome and also reducing costs and providing a better service to the students. Thank you. That looks like the last of questions. So thanks once again for your support and for joining this morning.

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.