Olvi Oyj (OLVAS) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Welcome. Welcome to our Q1 interim report. Before we get going, I want to share the usual 1 pager with some disclaimers. We'll be making some references to the future. And as we can all understand the future always comes with certain levels of uncertainty. You have your usual hosts, Tiina-Liisa Liukkonen and myself, Patrik here with you today. The first quarter of the year is always a busy period. It's a period of preparing for summer but also a period when we compile the results of the previous year and share these with the Market. I bring this up because last week, we hosted our AGM in Iisalmi, and there was a particular note that I wanted to make as it pertains to our annual report and that's the sustainability statement. We have published this now for the first time, and it's, of course, in compliance with the new directive. I invite you all to visit it and have a read. It's a good read, a comprehensive read. And it's a quite an important piece of documentation. I also wanted to take this opportunity to thank our team really for the great, tremendous work that they've done in terms of compiling the reports. But beyond that, for the way in which they lead the way in sustainable business growth. And why do I say that we lead the way? Well, we're quite proud to actually have proof of that. We were recognized by Time Magazine as one of the world's best companies when it comes to leading sustainable growth. So with that, I hope that my words and thanks to the team are not only polite but also factual. And the U.S. investors find this as great evidence of the fact that the things that we're doing are actually being recognized and are taking us in the right direction. But then a bit further detail on Q1. So as I mentioned, it's a busy period. It's also a period of preparation for summer, so we're building our stock so that we can service our customers during summer and make sure that we deliver on our promise of bringing moments of enjoyment to our consumers across the markets. And I'm glad to share that during Q1 and also as we speak, these days, we're bringing novelties to shelf. We're bringing some 90, that's 9-0 new products to the shelves across our markets. So that's a combined number. As we look at the numbers of Q1 and compare them with Q1 of 2024, there are a few important things to bear in mind. The first one is the timing of Easter. Easter coincided in Q1 last year as it was in April this year. On the other hand, we've seen some increases in excise duties, particularly in the Baltics, we've had a strike in Finland. All of these have impacted volumes delivered to market and also the consumer demand. We have there -- beyond that, we have also invested more than previous years in marketing and G&A to make sure that we're ready to capitalize on the new products launched and really drive our performance across functions. But regardless of the weak demand, we're very proud of our portfolio and the strength of it. There's been intense competition in the market, which has been persistent for some time now, but we're holding our ground. We haven't lost market share. Rather the opposite, we've even been able to grow our share in some categories. It's great to see that these initiatives are working in the chosen areas. We have been communicated previously that we want to grow in nonalcoholics and in the HoReCa channel. So much in line with our strategy, we see growth coming from these 2 spaces. And then finally, as we look at the future, when I mentioned the high-bay warehouse, one of the major investments of this year that we're doing in Finland. It's up and running. We have already put in some 8,000 pallets of products in storage ahead of season to make sure that our service levels this summer will be in good stead. So then as a whole, how did Q1 look like through the numbers. I'd like to say that in general, to the greatest extent, this was more or less in line with our expectations. So no major surprises. We're still seeing that softness in demand that I mentioned and some of the other impacts there in terms of the market dynamics. But we should really remember that we're overlapping a quarter where all our initiatives were not yet in play. We had not done some of our portfolio choices in Denmark and Finland at this time last year. We had also not been able to improve our mix to the extent that we were looking to do nor had we fully been able to materialize on some of the efficiency driving initiatives in our own operations. So this really impacts the delta between volume evolution on one hand and then the profit evolution and particularly as we look at Denmark and Finland, Denmark impacting, of course, then the Baltic region. But with those words, I wanted to hand over to Tiina-Liisa who will talk us through the segments in a bit further detail on some of the economics as well. Thank you.

Thank you, Patrik. So let's move to the segment performance for the quarter 1 '25. And let's start with Finland. First, I want to emphasize that our profitability improved almost 20%. And this is especially due to improved production efficiency and then the higher average sales price to the comparison period. We have to remember that last year, we were able to make the improvements that offset then the high inflation from quarter 2 onwards. Then our volumes decreased is 5.7%. So as mentioned earlier, there was 1 week strike in March, in Finland, and that affected our delivery capacity and decreased the delivered volumes. But to note that industry delivered volumes decreased even more than Olvi volumes did. And also, there is Easter sales impact so that this year, the Easter is in quarter 2. Despite the lower volumes, our strong market shares remained, for example, our beer market share in Finland is more than 50%. Despite the changes what we made to the product portfolio in '24. And the sales of water and hard seltzers continued to grow. Then in Baltic Sea region in general, in Baltic countries, consumer purchasing power remained in a weak level. and then the price competition continued to intensify. Also increases in excise duties imposed on beverages early in the year also harmed the demand in Estonia and Latvia. But we maintained market shares in Baltic countries despite of these facts. The biggest decline both in volumes and profits came from Denmark, where we made changes to the portfolio, as you remember, discontinuing some unprofitable products last year and volume base is now lower. EBIT decreased 40%. And that is because the cost of -- cost for preparing the summer also affected the profitability. And at the same time, we have invested to the novelties and especially in Denmark, the Olvi soft drink brand. It seems that Danes have an increased interest in domestic brands instead of the American ones. And we have to note that the total euro effect is only EUR 1.1 million in EBIT, which is then the decrease. And we believe that, that is not the kind of the obstacle to perform well in the future or this year. Then in Belarus, volumes and net sales continued to increase with the overall market growth. and the consumer demand has been also been strong. We have to note Belarus market conditions are different from the other markets, especially for this purchasing power. And then sales volume increased, especially in nonalcoholic product categories like water, energy drinks and soft drinks and growth was achieved in all sales channels. We have all noticed that the geopolitical situation continues to be very volatile. And in the same thing is for us that no change in the Olvi situation. what comes to the exit from the market. There is no permit to sell the shares and the dividend distribution restrictions are still valid under the year-end. Then some KPI summaries from the quarter 1. First, equity ratio has remained very strong. despite, for example, that -- we withdraw this EUR 50 million green loan for the new brew house and financing that. And investment in general, EUR 11 million for the first 3 months. And from that, EUR 8 million was related to Finland. So there is this high-bay warehouse that Patrik was mentioning that we are already taking in use. Now for the summer season and the brew house construction is ongoing and those projects are progressing in schedule. And then some minor investments, about EUR 2 million in the Baltic Sea region. Then the cash flow in this time of year, the cash flow is always negative. So it is, when we are preparing for the summer season. And especially this year, we have been stocking quite a lot products. So that is affecting the negative operating cash flow. Yes. But I think those are the main points from the financials.

Thank you, Tiina-Liisa. And then a few more slides and then we can get to the questions. As it relates to our near-term outlook, we're making no changes. So we're holding our guidance for this year and expect our profit to land somewhere between EUR 82 million and EUR 90 million. Then really briefly on strategy and choices. Some of you might recall that we called out a few teams during 2024 that we believe would be impacting the year. We see many of these, actually, all of them continue throughout 2025 as well. We've touched on households and the purchasing power being impacted by increasing prices on one hand and then the weak demand is also subject to uncertainties and concerns. Then more broadly, competition is intense and so forth. You can see them there on the chart. But we believe in our strategy, we believe 2024 demonstrated that we are on the right path also the first quarter coming in broadly along with our expectations gives us confidence to continue to implement this strategy in a systematic way, both on a group level and then also on a local level. And of course, as always, we're guided by our values, and we believe in strong partnership, positivity and collaboration. So with those words and plans. We have every reason to believe that we can deliver in line with expectations throughout the year 2025 and beyond. But this is us in a nutshell. Summarizing the first quarter and now we're opening up for any questions in the room or online. Thank you.

Sanna Perälä from Nordea. I have a few questions. Firstly, in Q1, your tax rate was quite high at 25%, at least compared to the Q1 last year. Could you elaborate this bit? Or is this the normal level going forward?

Maybe you want to take that?

Yes. Thank you for the question. Yes, I think that the comparison period [ axis ] were exceptionally low. So this tax amount or tax rate is more effecting or reflecting the reality where the effective tax rate is currently.

Right. Thanks. Then you mentioned the timing of Easter and also the 1 week strike here in Finland that impacted your volumes negatively. Could you quantify these impacts a little bit more?

Thank you. Maybe I'll take that one. Good question. I anticipated the question. Unfortunately, it's difficult to give you a numeric and precise answer. But now that we get April completed, then we'll see how the timing of Easter has impacted on the first 4 months. So when we come to report on Q2, then I'll have more specific answers for you. Then the second question related to the strikes. And whilst I don't have an absolute number to give, I point to the message Tiina-Liisa shared earlier, that whilst the total market came down in terms of deliveries to trade, all we performed better than that on a comparative level. So there was an impact for sure, but we believe that will kind of stabilize over time because the shelves were not empty, the consumers were not limited in terms of access to our products. But thank you for the question.

Then the last one. The investments in Q1 were some EUR 11 million. How should we look at the level of this in full year '25? What's the level of investments? Looking at the total year.

Do you want to comment?

Yes. So we have been communicating earlier that these big investments what we are doing in Finland is in total about EUR 45 million. So we started last year building the warehouse. And this is the most kind of busiest year for the investments. So the major part of the investments will happen during the '25.

Yes. few follow-up questions on the volume drop in Finland and Baltics, roughly about 5%. Could you quantify how much of this was portfolio changes?

Again, difficult to give you an exact number because we have to take into account the Easter effect across the Baltics, we have to consider the excise duties, that were increased, which had an impact on demand. So we have to look at things in the context of the total market. But Finland and Denmark, specifically, these are 2 countries where we have walked away from some unsustainable volume. Therefore, Denmark is perhaps the more significantly impacting aspect of the Baltic Sea region.

And talking about Denmark, you commented that most of the Baltic Sea region profitability drop was associated with Denmark. So is this more of like a one-off? Or is this that you're seeing that the turnaround that you are currently carrying out in Denmark will take more time, and we should expect the profitability to be under pressure longer time in Denmark?

I'm not sure if we articulated as specifically as you just voiced in terms of the impact of Denmark. For sure, we have invested in Denmark in terms of marketing, extra marketing spend behind Olvi and that's really carrying dividends. We're getting a tremendous consumer pull. We have a lot of interest from trade. We're expanding our distribution. We're gaining new listings. So there's a lot of positive momentum. The impact of that has been small in the first quarter. We expect more in the second quarter, but there we have walked away from some unhealthy volumes that impacts the total volume. Your question was more around the source of the profitability loss in that, we should look at the total market coming down and some G&A spend. And what am I still missing that drives the majority of that change?

Yes. I think the Baltic Sea region in general, what lowered the profitability is those reasons that Patrik mentioned, but also that we were preparing more the season. So we have been investing this year more in marketing and launching the novelties already in quarter 1. So it is burdening with these costs more than last year. But there is kind of the change going on in Denmark. So we have been taking away or the volumes has been lowering now in Denmark, and then we are shifting to the new phase. And I think this is the kind of the change in time for that one. And yes, we are looking forward to move forward for the sustainable growth in profitability in Denmark. And for example, this Olvi demand is now looking very promising if we are looking for, for example, this year.

Maybe coming back to your question still, if you think about Finland, yes, portfolio choices have brought our volume down. But let's remember that our volumes are down less than the total market. So in that sense, it suggests that we've done the right choices.

And then I wanted to touch upon the Belarus that you have this ban on the dividends for until the end of this year. So do you think, I mean, the money that you're generating today that you can eventually pay out? Or is there an anticipation that the government somehow will impose a new tariff in order to take basically the profitability out of your subsidiary?

No. In this marketplace, there are certain uncertainties that are ongoing, and it's ever changing environment. We're tracking it closely. We still have control of our assets there, and it's our people running the business, so we're very much in charge as you stated, the dividend limitation is in force for '24 and '25. So with that going away, we expect to return to normality. We have entered or received any signals to the contrary on that part.

[indiscernible] from Nordea. Maybe one question because anyway you are in the weather business, let's say, early Q2. So we have had nice weather, at least in Finland, so and taking into account that last year -- start of Q2 was let's say, still winter in Helsinki region at least. So how -- if you can give any comments on how the Q2 has started with this kind of, let's say, that good weather environment and also the Easter is now in Q2. So just to get a little bit feeling of current trading.

Yes. I think it's danger to give too much specificity on quarter and the run rate of this month as such. I do appreciate your -- the humor in your turn of phrase there as being in the weather business where I just want to emphasize, we're not within the beverage business. And whilst it would be always easy to refer to the weather impact we're trying to refrain from doing so. Of course, recognizing that we're coming into the season, and there is seasonality in our business. So the majority of our sales will be done during Q2 and Q3 as we all very well know. The weather always helps. The first rays of Sunshine up in these latitudes where we're coming out of a long period of darkness and go it always helps and create excitement. I think for April, specifically, the Easter effect is though the more important one being kind of the first moment of celebration in the kind of the annual calendar when it comes to this time of year.

And of course, we have to remember that the Easter is the first kind of spring seasonal sales spike that we will have. So now when it's the quarter 2. So of course, it has the impact, as you saw for the quarter 1. But then the weathers are kind of changing from summer to summer. So last year, for example, in May, we had the great weathers then in June, not that good. So it differs a lot how it goes this year. And it's very hard to predict. Of course, we are hoping for Sunshine and warm weather.

And then maybe one question related to possible M&A actions. Your balance sheet is strong. So how you view the current environment, let's say, that at least seems that maybe valuation levels have maybe come down a bit. So do you see any opportunities on the M&A side?

Yes. So I think we came out with that in our Capital Markets Day review at the end of '23, and we stated our intentions clearly, which is to look at not only organic but also inorganic growth. within the region of Europe. So this is work that's ongoing, and we will communicate those details in due time.

Maria Wikstrom, SEB. One more question on the raw material outlook. I mean, we've seen malt, barley prices come down year-over-year. Of course, we have no idea of the upcoming harvest. But if you could discuss a bit on your raw material outlook and the different categories, malting, barley, aluminum, glass what you're seeing now?

Sure. Thank you. I'll keep you quite top line because we haven't opened up our hedging policies before. What you're stating is correct on the barley price there, but it's also something that's very bound season to season, it can change quite drastically. What we've seen most recently is aluminum prices coming down from historic highs. We have to bear in mind the perspective here. If we were to go back to the times before COVID, we're still on aluminum, roughly 20% higher than we were back then. So it's not cheap, but it has come down from some historic highs for how long we don't know. And also on aluminum, it's just one ingredient that goes into a can. -- the can price is affected by other things and there's a shortness of supply. So that doesn't early mean that the can pricing per se is coming down, perhaps staying flat or even going up a bit is foreseeable. So it's a mixed bag. But the good news, I suppose, is that things are more stable. We've come away from those years of intensive price increases and huge inflation on all our raw materials. So things have subsided but we're still on a much higher level than where we were before COVID.

And of course, this geopolitical situation is affecting on the raw material and packaging material prices also. So all these custom tariffs and those do not have a direct effect on us, but it is creating uncertainty and volatility on the market. But as Patrik said, that we are in a much higher level in the costs now than, for example, before the COVID times, and it seems that we have been there now a few years. And how does it look for the future, we don't know. But I think that the point is that, of course, we are then doing some hedging and make -- try to make sure that our supply is in the sustainable level in the market conditions. But...

And one question, I think in the report, you mentioned a few times a competition in the retail. So if you could a little bit open up, I mean, the competition that is this price competition -- and do you see -- how do you see price mix developing from here across different markets?

Good question. Thank you. Yes, indeed, our reference was particular to grocery retail the places where you shop your day-to-day food items. Competition is intense and in practice, it means that the volume sold on deal is higher now than it used to be in the past. As I mentioned, competition is always intense in these environments, both between the suppliers and also between the retail chains and operators. Everyone is fighting for the available spend that the households have. We are part of this. This is something that, of course, we've become accustomed to reacting on a local level with the types of campaigns that serve us well that protect our profitability, but also importantly, our share and our volumes, when you speak about mix, we have opportunities in mix. We've been talking about that before, that we have great growth potential in the non-alcoholic space, a category that's foreseen to grow for the long term. We're already strong in beers. We've been able to sustain our strong shares within beers. And on the alcoholic side, there's also growth to be seen, for instance, in hard seltzers and some other categories. Did that answer your question on the mix impact?

Yes. And then finally, I think is this week when the government is discussing the potential change in the Finnish alcohol law and allowing wines in the grocery stores. So what's your anticipation? And then what will be your action if wines will be allowed to the grocery stores?

I think it's difficult for us to comment on political evolutions. We saw the initial report I believe, last week, which suggested that there's alternatives with which to move forward. Now it's up for the government to decide how they move or not. What we will do is live according to our values, which is to remain agile and prepare for any eventuality. We believe that the circumstances will always change. So it's just a question of being ready and able to adapt when that happens. As a great example, I can mention what we did last summer in 2024 when the alcohol law changed, allowing up to 8% products with up to 8% ABV on shelves in supermarkets in Finland. We had taken a conscious risk and prepared ourselves a few weeks ahead. So when the news came on Friday, and it's allowed to put the product on shelf on Monday. So we did. We were ready for it. So we're trying to be prepared for all kinds of eventualities. But what will happen, we shall see when they make the decisions.

Okay. We have gotten a few questions through the chat. I think most of them we have already discussed through the questions in the room. But couple of ones. Maybe first, we can start with Belarus. So even though that was already discussed and that there is an exit plan. But is the exit plan still standing? And does it mean that situation would change and the war would end if there is still a plan to sell the Belarus business?

Yes, thank you for the question, and it's a question we tend to get quite often. And there's no change to the statement we made in March of 2022. We've shared the evolution, the journey we've been on over the last couple of years with initiating the sales process, then being faced by local legislation that prohibits a sale. And things have evolved since yet today, you need a permit to sell, a permit we don't have. So this is ever changing and evolving situation that we're tracking on a daily and weekly basis, and we'll report as and when there are relevant changes to report them.

Then another one also about Belarus regarding the payment of dividends. So can you advise how much of the EUR 35 million cash balance is from Belarus and how much is outside?

We have not specified the cash balance by country or by segment in the quarter report. So last time, the cash separated by segments, you can find from the financial statements '24.

And then final question is can you specify the guidance by segments in any way? So are all the business segments expected to improve full year EBIT?

Well, I think this guidance is something that we started practicing last year. So we gave a guidance for the first time in terms of a numeric range. So for now, it stays as a total number with a range if there needs to change the range, we'll do so. But I don't foresee us this year coming into commentary around segment-specific expectations.

Yes. We had some specific comments when we released this year outlook, financial outlook. And you can find that from the quarter 4 report. So there were some specification related to segments and the expectations what we had for this year.

Thank you. That was all from the chat.

All right. Any final questions from the room? Otherwise, we thank you for your activity. Thank you for joining us also online. I'm happy with the amount of questions and we shall see you again after we have the Q2 results.

Thank you.

Thanks.