Olvi Oyj (OLVAS) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Welcome back. Welcome to our third quarter interim report. Thank you to those who are joining us here in the studio and for all of you online. Before we get to the actual content, let's remind ourselves of the disclaimer and the fact that we'll be referring to future events, which always include a certain level of uncertainty. Most of you would know us by now by the means of introductions. I'm joined here by Tiina-Liisa Liukkonen, our Chief Finance and Information Officer; and then myself, Patrik Lundell, the CEO. Let's get to it. So the third quarter results are in, and we're in for the final stretch of 2025. The market has been softer than anticipated throughout the summer period. Consumer confidence and spending remain under pressure, all of which is visible in our results. But despite this challenging operating environment, we've been able to keep our shares. We haven't lost our strong market shares. Quite on the contrary, we've even been able to gain some shares in many pockets across our business. And additionally, we've been able to expand our margins. So let's have a look at some of the highlights of the third quarter here. So as I mentioned, the weather at the end of summer throughout the third quarter remained unstable, affecting the overall market demand. We did enjoy a 3-week spell of sunny weather in Finland, which increased demand there in the local market. But especially across the Baltics, we had a long rainy summer, and this impacted the demand directly. So despite the challenging environment and the smaller-than-anticipated market, we kept investing. We invested in our brands, in our own operations to ensure that we remain competitive and that we come out of this cloud stronger than before. We kept our shares and we even grew shares, as I mentioned. Now for instance, if we go to Latvia, where we communicated during Q2 that the market was much smaller than last year, the same applies for the third quarter. But despite that, we took 3% market share in the beer category in Latvia. So that's a clear demonstration of our actions actually carrying dividends. And more broadly, across many of our markets, we took share in the non-alcohol category, for instance, mentioning waters and Finland specifically. So we've been working on our portfolio, developing it both through innovation and by managing the mix, and this is now visible in the margin expansion. But in addition to managing and maintaining our profitable core business, we're also pursuing growth now through acquisitions. And we'll come back to this at the end of the presentation, but we've made acquisitions or communicated our intent to bring on board 3 companies now, 2 in our domestic current markets and 1 that brings us into completely new territory. So with all of this being said, we come out of summer stronger than before, and we remain confident in our ability to deliver a strong first quarter, and we do not see any issues with our operating model overall. But with those intro words, Tiina-Liisa, please, why don't you share some of the numbers with us?

Yes. Thank you Patrik and hello from my side too. So let's start with the quarter 3 results. Our net sales and sales volume remained at the previous year's level. So in total, quarter 3 was behind our expectation. As said, especially due to the rainy weather and the late summer in Baltics and also in Belarus. This economic and political uncertainty has continued, and that's reflected in the consumers' purchasing power in all of our markets. Despite of the challenging market and intense competition in quarter 3, we were able to maintain our shares and expand our margins, which is a good achievement in challenging market conditions. Even though profitability improved as measured by gross margin percentage, overall profitability measured by EBIT declined almost 10%. There are a few reasons. It was affected by decreased volumes or not that high volumes that we expected, investments into the sales, marketing and pricing, higher logistic costs and then business development measures. But then let's have a look at the segments in quarter 3, and there were differences between the business segments. In Finland, we can see good growth in quarter 3. As mentioned, July 3-week heat wave significantly boosted demand and ensured a good third quarter sales for Finland. Our strong brands performed well. For example, non-alcohol and hard seltzer categories continue to grow. And hard seltzer turned 5 years this year, and we have kept our position as a market leader all this time. Strong own brand sales and very good delivery accuracy, thanks to the new investments in Iisalmi boosted the sales and profitability and especially in July during the high demand when we performed very well. Now then in Baltic Sea, rainy and unfavorable weather conditions, together with the weak development of consumer purchasing power, tight price competition and decrease in the consumption of alcohol products in general, impacted the profitability together with the high expenses, especially in the marketing and sales. Sales volumes declined, especially in Latvia and Denmark. In Latvia, the overall retail market continued to decline. But the good news is that we achieved growth in HoReCa sales. In Denmark, our soft brand Jolly sales was significantly better than last year, but this gain did not offset the impact of lost private label leaders. However, always market shares have mainly remained at the level of the previous year or even improved in the Baltic countries. So even the market has been softer, we have performed in this market condition. EBIT declined almost 25% and the effect was due to the decreased volumes from Latvia and Denmark. But also Lithuania's profitability was affected significantly in quarter 3 by the tight price competition in the summer season. And then in the Belarus, there was a cold weather in the late summer, and that affected the overall demand. But the kind of the good news is that the sales of this non-alco products grew as it is a strategic target for us. In profitability, we see a decline, and that is because there has been higher fixed costs and especially for example, logistics cost has been higher than last year. Then the whole year until the September. As said, the whole year sales volumes were affected by continued weak consumer demand, then general market uncertainty and this unstable summer weather. And the quarter 3 sales were weaker than expected, especially in the Baltic Sea segment. In Finland, we got this heat season in July, but that we didn't saw in the Baltic Sea region or in the Belarus. Net sales grew, and that is thanks to the higher average sales price. But despite this challenging market, as said, we retained our market shares in all our main product groups, and our net sales remained at the previous year level. Profitability-wise, as said, the relative gross margin improved year-on-year, and that was 41.7%. We are happy that we have been able to improve this relative profitability measured by gross margin as that is the base for sustainable profitable growth in the future. EBIT decreased due to strategic investments in business development and growth, including costs associated with these announced acquisitions and the modernization of information systems as well as the increased sales and marketing activity and higher logistic costs. For example, in this -- example of this modernization of information system, we are renewing our ERP system and also putting effort on our demand and campaign planning. Then the whole year by segments. In Finland, in terms of these product categories, as I said, sales of hard seltzers and non-alcoholic products continue to grow. And even though there is a change in consumer behavior slightly reduced to the overall demand for alcohol products, the most significant change in the sales volume was due to the optimization measures taken in the beer range in '24, which has a negative effect on the sales volume compared to last year. The operating result improved almost 9% compared to last year. And that is mainly as a result of the sales volume growth due to the sales peak caused by the heat in July, improved production efficiency, the stabilization of cost increases and changes in the product range. So many things has affected. Market position remained strong, as said. But then Baltic Sea region. Price competition has continued intensive and sales volumes declined due to the consumer weak purchasing power, weather conditions and lower consumption of alcoholic products. This we have already mentioned. We have managed the market decline quite well. As always, market shares have mainly remained at the previous year level or even improved. As mentioned, sales volumes declined, especially in Denmark and Latvia, but the reasons are same as mentioned in the quarter 3. Profitability has not developed according to our plans in Baltic Sea region. EBIT decline is 31%. We saw that in quarter 3, it was less, but in overall, it is 31%. And the decline comes from Denmark, Latvia and Lithuania. In Denmark, the process of changing the focus of business operations from private label manufacturer to own brand business is in progress, but we have not yet made our operations profitable. In Latvia and Lithuania, intensified price competition caused by weak consumer demand during the summer season, especially in summer season, together with the significantly higher investments in brand visibility, campaigns and pricing weakened our profitability due to the smaller-than-expected market. But at the same time, this helped maintaining our competitive position. Profitability drop in Latvia and Lithuania is expected to be temporary as profitability has already improved in September compared with the previous months. Then in Belarus, we see that the sales volumes and net sales are in the last year level or the sales volumes are in the last year's level and the net sales has improved, and that is because the average sales price has also improved. In overall, EBIT has declined, and that is because there has been more fixed cost. The gross margin has been in a good level, but there is a bigger amount of fixed costs and especially the logistics cost has been growing this year quite significantly. Then financial summary. So some of the highlights from here. So overall, our balance sheet and financial position are strong. As announced together with the acquisitions, we are planning to finance these acquisitions by operating cash flow and also utilizing existing short-term finance instruments. In sustainability side, in '25 Reputation & Trust survey done in Finland at the end of the quarter 2, we received a good rating in all areas and excellent in the products and services among both the general public and investors. Among the general public, our results were the best in the measurement history and among the investors, the second best. And we are especially proud of this good result in product and services because that is the core of our business. Then investments. The total investments are EUR 10 million more than last year, and the main part is coming from the Finland. Finland investments proceed on schedule. This new high-bay warehouse has significantly improved the delivery accuracy. And we will see the proof of that one in the moment in the video. So I think that now we can go and see what has happened in Iisalmi. [Presentation]

Great. So I hope you enjoyed the video and the scenery beyond the important content that Tommy shared with us. So we're super proud of all the work that has been done in Iisalmi and we're probably a bit biased if we say, but I'm sure you agree after having seen the video that this is a brewery that's in the most beautiful place in the world. So we invite you to visit. But back to other topics. So in terms of our near-term outlook, we've changed our guidance based on the actuals of Q3. I want to emphasize that we still expect a strong fourth quarter. Tiina-Liisa mentioned referenced some of the investments we've done this summer. There were heavier investments in the similar space at the end of last year, which we are not expecting to repeat. So we're overlapping some of those costs, and thereby, we have great confidence in our ability to deliver a strong fourth quarter. In terms of strategy and getting to those acquisitions that I promised we would reference, we are committed to our strategy. The strategy is working. Our brands are performing. We have solid market shares. Our margins are improving. Our efficiency in our operations are improving. So we will continue to execute in line with our plan, and we have great confidence in our ability to deliver growth also in the long term. Part of delivering that growth is expansion, expansion through acquisitions. So let me just briefly touch on the 3 pieces of news we've shared during the third quarter. So in Latvia, we've spoken about Latvia today as we did during the second quarter. You've heard that the market is much smaller. Having said that, though, there's 2 brands that are performing. There are 2 brands that are growing. One is our Piebalgas premium beer in the market. That's growing. The other one is Valmiermuiža. And we, as a whole, have taken those increased shares of the market that I referenced, 3% more share in beer. So there is growth in the market. There's growth to be had, particularly in the premium part of the portfolio, bringing Valmiermuiža on board is very much a local expansion. They have regional relevance as well. I've even seen some of their products, our products here in Finland. They also do soft drinks. So it's also leaning in on our multi-beverage strategy. Then in the middle here, you see another picture of a beautiful brewery this time in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Banjalucka Pivara brewery that we are looking to bring on board as all of these acquisitions by the end of the first quarter of 2026. Now in the case of Banjalucka. This not only brings us in addition to our beer portfolio, healthy operations there, but it provides us access to an entirely new market. If you look at Western Balkans, you'll find roughly 20 million consumers. That's not very different from the combined amount of consumers that we are able to service in our domestic markets today. But if you look at the whole of the Balkans, you include Greece and Romania, we're quickly talking about 60 million consumers. So we're opening up a new territory for our business. And as Banjalucka today is very much committed to beers, we have an opportunity to quickly extend their range and their offering there in the local markets with our in-house portfolio of non-alcohol products and other alcoholic propositions. This will also help us to build our already existing experts in the market to bring some of the production locally and be an even stronger player there in the region. And then the third acquisition brings us to Estonia, where it's a local acquisition of the Värska Originaal water business. This is a longstanding operator in the region, a strong local player also with regional relevance. We see their products across the Baltics. We see them in Finland and beyond. This is a growing business, all nonalcoholic, but beyond water as well. So they have enhanced waters, vitamin waters, magnesium waters, one of the novelties that they brought recently out. So this is a local and regional player and leans very much in on our ambitions to grow in the non-alcohol space. Their volume alone adds roughly 10% to the total non-alco sales of the group today. So 3 very interesting and relevant acquisitions that lean in directly on our strategy, enable us to be stronger in our current markets, enables us to seek growth across the regions that we operate in. And then through the Banjalucka acquisition opens up a completely new region for us. So we're very excited about these acquisitions and bringing the new team members on board and going into 2026 with many levers to pull and many growth opportunities. So with that, we close and invite the participants here in the room and all of you there online to ask your questions. Thank you.

Sanna Perälä from Nordea. You walked us through the market development quite well, but I have one question that's regarding Finland. You mentioned the good weather that was supportive in Q3, but was there anything else besides the good weather that supported the nice growth we saw?

Yes. I think Finland is referenced many of the important points there, one of which is our delivery accuracy. So through the investments already done and taken into good use during Easter of this year, we got the highway -- high-bay warehouse. I sometimes make that mistake, the high-bay warehouse in good use, which improved our delivery accuracy. So we were able to sell more than previous years and sell across our portfolio. So that's also the part that we want to emphasize that our portfolio mix was stronger. And then other internal efficiencies combined then with the less strong growth on input costs. So many things played in our advantage. Did I forget something?

Yes. I think as a summary, it is that we have a better capability now to respond, for example, this kind of peak seasonal demand. And now we can show that we can respond on those ones and we can kind of deliver and that's where also they get the benefits from those.

So you expect the good development to continue and it's not just the weather?

Yes, we're not in the weather business, although we have to accept that demand is impacted by the temperature outside.

Well, then you mentioned the portfolio optimization and product mix. So could you describe some of like concrete actions you have taken perhaps during this year or in Q3 that well, optimizes your portfolio going forward?

Yes. So coming in -- thank you for the questions, by the way. Coming into this summer, we had stronger plans in the Finnish market as we did across the regions. We did more media investments. We also placed more secondary placements in store. We had a clear focus. We had 5 priorities that we went after, and we were able to deliver double-digit growth across all those 5 priorities. So we've been quite focused and committed to delivering on specific areas. If you want specificity, for instance, in the non-alcohol part, we were focused on waters, building our KevytOlo brand, which is the leading brand in Finland in terms of the juice enhanced waters. We saw tremendous growth there in waters. Overall, we took nearly a bit more than 2% market share this summer. So they're carrying dividends, the actions we are taking. And this is then, of course, changing the shape of our portfolio.

Well, then if we look at Q4, you already touched upon that in my previous question, but how do you see the overall market development going into that? Do you -- or how confident are you that your sales will remain on a positive growth track?

Maybe we take this together. But if I start what we don't expect consumer sentiment to dramatically change. We expect the environment to remain similar. But what we are -- on one hand, we're overlapping some investments, which we're not repeating. On the other hand, as I mentioned, we're coming out of summer stronger than we went into summer. So we've got increased shares. We're taking a bigger slice of the pie now than we did a year ago. And then we've been quite tight on our internal cost as well, driving out teasing out efficiencies where we can to make sure that we deliver a strong fourth quarter.

So we are quite confident that we can manage the internal part. So we know that what kind of expenses we had this year, what we had last year, and that's why we are believing that the quarter 4 in a profitability wise is better than last year. But yes, the softness in the market has not disappeared. That remains to be seen how the quarter 4 is going to be. But I think that we have seen kind of quite much of changes already in the summer season. So it cannot go any worse maybe than this has been in the summer season. So I think...

And to point back to what you said previously as well about September, Latvia and Lithuania, we already see the needle moving in the right direction. So that gives us confidence as well.

All right. That's clear. Well, then moving on to the guidance for 2025, which you restated yesterday. If I calculate it correctly, you need to improve 50% in Q4 on your EBIT level to reach the lower end of the guidance range. So what steps do we need to see or do you need to do in order to reach that?

Thank you for the question. It feels like it's a bit of a follow-up on the theme we've already been touching on. So indeed, we have taken those measures. We have them in the plan, and we have line of sight of the costs we had last year and things that we're not repeating this year, maybe to mention the fact that we spent in marketing and sales activations more in the fourth quarter of last year than we are planning to do this year. We have already invested that in summer. So there's these shifts, which gives us confidence that despite the market being where it is, we're controlling our own operations. And by that, we expect a strong fourth quarter.

And if I follow up on that, is this improvement mainly from Finland and Baltic Sea region or the other one only?

We see it across our business. So we have taken these initiatives across our business in all. Thank you very much.

Then I still have 2 more questions to go. You've seen your non-alcoholic categories growing across the board, while alcoholics are somewhat more depressed. So can you share what's their share of revenue or volumes these days?

So if you look at our volumes in total, and you can refer back to the annual report of last year, you'll see that roughly half of our volume is beer. And then if you take soft drinks and waters, that's roughly 25%. But if you take all of our non-alcohol combined, I believe you'll find in the report even for the first time, you'll find a specific number. Maybe you want to repeat, but it's more than 40% that's represented by non-alcohol.

And that stands still in Q3 2025?

Yes. So year-to-date, it's even grown.

Yes.

Right. And lastly, about the acquisitions. They look quite promising, but have you quantified any synergy potential there?

On the acquisitions?

Yes.

Yes. But we're not disclosing those details. But yes, we have that part of it is to grow and really make sure that we work stronger together than separately today.

We have only stated that kind of that those businesses are profitable now. And of course, we have found synergies as those companies are in Latvia or Estonia. So we have the operations there. So then we can find some synergies in the future in many aspects also.

This is [ Matti ] from OP Markets. I'd like to ask also about these acquisitions you made. And I think the Baltic acquisitions make perfectly sense, and they are perfect match to your existing portfolio. But then this Bosnia acquisition was a bit surprising, at least for me. And how do you see kind of the country risks or this kind of what could possibly go wrong there going to the totally new market?

Sure. And we have some experience, of course, of entering new markets, and we've been quite successful in doing that in the past. So we expect the same here. We are indeed going into Western Balkan. If you think about the Croatian coast, you think about Montenegro, Albania, the tourism that's growing there, we'll be able to serve them not all the way from our domestic markets, but from our local future domestic markets. There's growth there to be had. Then if you look at Bosnia Herzegovina in itself, it's a small country, it's a small market. But then when you go beyond into Serbia and some of the neighboring markets, Greece and Italy, again, there's good momentum already today that we expect to only accelerate and broaden our offering through that. So there's clear building blocks that gives us confidence in the growth. And when you point to the uncertainty in the region, I'd like to emphasize that these markets are all applying to become EU members. So we're very much leaning into the Western Hemisphere here. Actually, Bosnia Herzegovina will be our western most country after Denmark, if you look at it geographically. Thank you for the question.

Maybe one follow-up, like the opportunities you just mentioned. How do you see kind of the -- you said that you have option to export your existing products via these new acquisitions. So how do you think what are the key products you are trying to get into the new markets?

I don't want to spoil the surprise from the local consumers and tourists that visit the region. We'll see that in the future. But again, if you think about what the acquired company is doing today, they're doing great with their local beers. They're seeing strong growth in their local range. But it's only beer. So we can add the obvious waters, soft drinks, our cocktails, we can bring many of these products to the local offering, energy drinks, new waters, all these types of categories are up for grabs. And indeed, we're already in the market. So now having a domestic machinery there and the sales force will bring us a lot of additional strength behind that offering that's already in the market. I hope I answered your question.

Yes. Maybe then 2 more questions. One, like you said that your logistic cost has been increasing. And is that the case in all the regions and segments? I'm sorry. Oh, I'm so sorry. Yes. So the logistic cost. So is that the case that they've been increasing in all the segments and other regions? Or is it specifically the case in the Baltic Sea region? Or how do you see that?

It's more southern bound, the challenge there where we have to leverage external warehousing and then you see increases in logistics costs. So that's the combination. So not so much in Finland, but do you want to expand on it?

I think last year, we saw the logistics cost increase in Finland. And now we can see it more kind of powerfully in Baltics, but especially in Belarus. So the inflation kind of comes a little bit late, for example, in Belarus, there's a lack of drivers and the gasoline cost and everything like that one. So I think that's the combination. And also that our business is growing. So we need more warehousing and these kind of things. And these external additional warehouses are also then a little bit extra cost.

All right. And then final one. How do you see the -- market is now a bit soft, but how do you see like the next year? Any educated guesses?

We don't want to be guessworking. I think weather-wise, we should expect at least similar weather, if not slightly better. That's one part. In terms of the economy, I mean, we read the same newspapers and follow the media broadly as you would. There are different views on will it recover, when will it recover? I think suffice it to say, eventually, it will. And that's why we have great confidence in our plan and the actions that we're taking where we're investing in our core business, we're investing in our capabilities, our efficiency. So we will be stronger by every day that goes. So whenever the market returns, we're more ready than before.

And it's a kind of combination. So for example, in Finland, the salaries has increased, people have more money, but when do you have the confidence to use the money. So of course, there are statistics or kind of guesses that wiser than us are doing that it should be a little bit better next year, but that we do know. We do not have probably a high expectation it will be totally different next year than this year.

Maybe just whilst we move to online questions to say that we're not only planning next year, we're planning the next 20 years. So eventually, we'll get better. Please. Was there something online as well?

Yes. So we have a few questions that we have received online. So first, let's go to Belarus. So there are the temporary restrictions on distribution of profits to the parent company from Belarus. So there's questions related on that, that you have EUR 60 million cash in your balance sheet and how much of that is sitting in Belarus that you cannot -- that you currently don't have access to? And how do you see the risks in continuing operations there at the moment?

Yes. Let's take this together, maybe on the operations there, things are performing under these circumstances well. We have our Lithuanian longstanding CEO in-charge there, and we're able to operate. Our team is safe and doing well in terms of the working conditions and we're maintaining the asset with necessary investments. So from that perspective, things are ticking along. Then in terms of the cash reserves, we haven't been very specific on it, but maybe you want to elaborate with a few words.

Yes. I think in our financial statement in the year-end, we have stated the cash amount in Belarus. In the quarter reports, we have not stated that one. But I think that what we have said that usually, the cash flows are related to the size of the business. So... Thank you. Then let's move on to Finland. So how do you see the consumer demand at the moment in Finland?

It feels like we're kind of repeating the same narrative here. It's been a soft year we had in Finland. We had those 3 weeks of warm weather in July, which kind of fixed the third quarter. So overall, it's cautious, I would say, but there's maybe cautious optimism if you zoom in on Finland alone. So there's -- the reports we read on the future there indicates a cautious recovery, whether it's in property prices or others. So we're expecting that eventually the Finns will gain confidence again and start spending a bit more.

Thank you. Then moving on to Denmark. So how much volume growth would you need in Denmark to turn it profitable with the current margin structure?

That's a very specific question, but it points clearly to the issue we have. So when we started the kind of the turnaround initiatives in Denmark, what we did, we walked away from some of the most unhealthy business we had, which wasn't profit accretive. Now then if you want to ask how much more volume, it's not as simple as that because it depends what type of volume. But what has happened is that we've also lost some of that base volume that we would have liked to keep. So we're looking for volume broadly, but it has to be something that helps us justify our existence for the long term. So it has to kind of build a path to recovery. I don't know how much more specifically we can answer.

Yes. But I think we stated already that earlier, the volumes were mainly private label, so the retailers kind of own brands. And now we are making the shift to our own brands, Olvi own brands and investment own brands. So basically, the leaders that we have lost, we do not need the similar kind of leaders to be profitable with our own brands. But how much that we have not been specific, of course.

And maybe we can share the YOLI story there. We've increased our share many times over, and we've been able on the soft drink specifically to replace some unhealthy volume with healthier YOLI volume, but that doesn't cover the other losses in the water and beer segments.

And that just came a follow-up question on this about losing the private label contracts. So was that your own decision or the partner's decision? Both?

Yes. It's always a commercial decision, right? It's a negotiation and then you either win the deal or you don't.

Then moving on to the M&As. So can you share how much roughly did you spend on the 3 acquisitions that you have done lately? And then how much of the M&A-related costs did you incur in Q3?

The acquisition numbers, we haven't shared. Then in terms of costs because we mentioned that part of our fixed costs were associated with developing and M&A, but what kind of -- do you have a round figure or percentage or...

No, it's a multiple hundred thousands, of course, because you have many acquisitions going on and usually the processes are quite long and these kind of things. So we have not stated this one, but that for the year-end, I think we try to do some kind of summary and kind of disclose that more then. Thank you. And then to the final question, this is also related to the M&A. So are you currently working on many new acquisitions? Or were you working on just these 3 and they happen to materialize at the same time?

Well, this is an ongoing topic, and I think it's suffice to say that we intend to remain strong and develop our business, and we have confidence in our model, and we will continue to invest both domestically and beyond. All right. If that was all from the questions perspective, thank you for joining us. We look forward to meeting you again when we close the year, early next year. And in the meantime, we wish you a good continuation of the weekend end of year.