Orizon Valorização de Resíduos S.A. (ORVR3) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. [indiscernible] has to comply with the minimum established in the metrics. And this is a new currency to be used in the biomethane market. As to carbon credit, we made very important headways. I always like to provide detail of what really impact our business, both the advance and the agreement of Paris Agreement as well as the approval in the Senate. These unlock the possibility of Orizon to commercialize carbon credit in some -- from some landfills, which were in the stock. So now this Article 6.4 as well as the carbon law, they are going to be used by Orizon to unlock the possibility of trading those assets that could not be migrated to the voluntary market. So this is highly important for us, all those framework that were made are business unlocked. As to inorganic growth, we bought 2 landfills, Rodolfo Fernandes and Juazeiro do Norte. And we are going to generate 1,200 tons per day and 600 tons of [indiscernible]. The useful life of those landfills are more than 20 years, and we are majority stakeholders in both assets. And we are going to create this value in the waste area along the time, and we are going to pave the way for us to establish carbon plans and plans for the future, increasing our geographic presence in the country. In the next item, we talk about the acquisition of Paraíba and Pernambuco. Those are thermal power plants that we acquired in order to have the right to explore biomethane in both landfills. But they have a positive side effect, which is to have anticipated access to biogas, allowing the optimization of value of our biogas even before the biomethane plants start operating. And this, together with the fact that the spot price has increased. And you're going to see in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of 2025, the important impact on our EBITDA since we became owners of those thermal power plants, and we executed agreements at advantageous prices. We are also going to talk about the strategic partnership for the acquisition of biogas. So this is a new avenue that we opened by purchasing biogas produced in third-party landfills. We brought home the possibility to explore more than 200 cubic meters -- 200,000 cubic meters of biomethane can be traded from third-party landfills. This is news that we brought in this call. So that allows an expansion of the production of biomethane and also the expansion of BioE. I'm going to turn the call to Leo so that he can talk about the operating aspects.

Thank you, Pilao. Thank you, everybody. First, to talk about the results of Orizon. Following the presentation, we are going to move on to the operational highlights. So there was an increase in the volume of waste in our ecopark, 5% in relation to the previous period, very much in line with last quarter. Power generation had a slight drop in relation to last year, but much in line with the last quarter. The biogas capture is in line with last quarter. And the carbon credits also aligned with the previous quarter. These are the main highlights. And we mentioned the climate change and temporary changes that caused impact on those results, especially biogas and carbon credit. In relation to the financial numbers, so we had a total net revenue of 29% higher than what we reported in the same period of last year. So driven especially by carbon credit, but not only, we had price improvement and a growth in volume that contributed to this increase in volume of revenue. Gross profit increasing and we reported an EBITDA of BRL 132,000, 70% higher when compared to the same period of last year. And the main highlight is the average price, which is 2.3% in relation to last quarter and nearly 9% in relation to the same period of last year. So carbon credit reached BRL 37.7 million. So we had some costs associated with the trading off the carbon credit. And we reported a reversal of the negative -- historic negative results in the waste processing. So we start to post positive profitability and consolidated all this. We have the sales of carbon, the good performance of the final waste disposal and the positive reversal in waste processing activities. This is the pro-forma EBITDA, always reporting, including the carbon credits. So in the first 9 months of the year, we had carbon contribution of about 93% of the revenue using the same metrics for the equivalent to the volume that was not sold when we look at the volume, not -- we do not look at the period. So we consider the 9 months and we consider what we sold in the quarter. So we had -- we reached the number of BRL 43,847, and we would end the year at BRL 380,000 of carbon credit. In the next page, we bring the advance of CapEx that was mentioned by CapEx -- by Pilao in the beginning of the presentation with a highlight of BRL 79 million of this quarter and BRL 120 million are concentrated in Barueri and Jaboatão in biomethane, important advances in the treatment of leachate. And we have important projects in Itapevi, for example, another expansion in the metropolitan region of Sao Paulo. And this is the CapEx of maintenance for the sanitary landfills. As to capital structure, so there is a deleveraging in relation to the same period of 2023, 2.7x net debt over EBITDA. We increased in terms of average period as we reported in the last quarter. So we had an important emission in Barueri lasting 19 years. We had other loans in order to invest in the expansion plan. The capital structure of the company is adequate for the future growth. And part of the debt is linked to projects which have not started operating. And some of them will start operating in the first and second half of 2025, and we are going to be seeing this in the balance sheet as a result. I'm going to turn back to Pilao for him to talk about the perspectives, and then we are going to open the Q&A session.

As to perspectives, they are very similar. We are always focused on the main objectives and perspectives of the company. I think this is a very winning formula for the company. So what to expect from the company in the next quarters, in the medium and short terms? As I've said before, we changed the company. The company grows in blocks, and we changed in a way that we add a block to the recurring EBITDA. We go to the next level every time. And for the future, we expect recurring sales of carbon that will allow us to reach another EBITDA level in terms of recurring EBITDA. In the short term, we also have positioning -- a different positioning from -- to the fourth quarter when we talk about the biogas monetization with the thermal power plants that we acquired, considering the energy contracts that we sold and the high prices that we managed to negotiate. So monetization of biogas, sale of carbon credits, they are all going to continue impacting in a positive way our results as well as the continuous maturing of the projects of landfills. So we are going to increase volume, and we are also going to increase average prices. And we are going to continue reporting the increase in average prices in the next quarters. I have already mentioned this to some investors. And once again, I repeat here, our target is to expand in a relevant way, the average price with actual gains in comparison to the inflation for the next quarters and we are always going to have gains in volume and in prices. Those 3 main points will continue causing positive impacts and creating ever more value blocks to add to the quarterly EBITDA of the company. In terms of strategic and opportunistic acquisition, as I said before, we are going to continue this path and we have some millions of tons with the company. We are very diligent in our acquisitions. And we always look at the return on the capital employed when we look at those acquisitions, but they are all on our radar. And we also have the expectation of having new acquisitions, again, of the landfills that will take place in the next quarters and which will also impact in a positive way our results. As I said in the beginning, this quarter shows in a surprising way regulatory advance. But as I said, we do not control the regulatory agenda. We do not depend on them for any results. But when they come to favor us such as the approval of the Future Law and also the approval of Article 6.7 of the Paris Agreement. So that means that we have had interesting surprises in the regulatory framework that will impact the company in the medium term, especially, but also in the short term. And carbon credit, biomethane, monetization, all those items are going to be impacted in a positive way. Thank you all, and we are going to open the Q&A session.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Maria Carolina Carneiro with Safra.

I have 2 questions on my side. One is related to the result and the other related to the market. Starting from results, I can see that you made headway year-on-year in different segments where you operate. But we also noticed the pressure on costs, especially in SG&A, both when we consider quarter-on-quarter and also year-on-year. Could you help us understand the main portions that affected the result? Is there any nonrecurrent item that we should pay more attention to so we can understand the cost dimension. And as to market, I would like to have an update from you in relation to the potential of biomethane. First, in relation to the types of contracts that you also established with Estre. So do the monetization using biogas in a partnership with third parties. Are there more possibilities in this kind of fuels? Are there other possibilities? And also the gas distributor model. I can see that you made headway in terms of sales with companies that already have channeled gas. Is there any news? Is there any negotiation in the market of mobility, for example, in the model roads?

Carol, this is Leo. Thank you very much for the question. In relation to results, we can see that there is an impact on SG&A line connected with the trading of carbon credits. So we can see consulting services, pricing initiatives. We also had impact of the M&As. The quarter was filled with transactions, biogas projects, as you mentioned, third-party landfills and also 4 acquisitions that we consolidated, and they all involve costs., assessor, due diligence, professionals, different kinds of expenses. When you ask me, is this recurrent? It depends on how you see it. Are we -- if we continue doing transactions, we are going to continue having this kind of effect, but this is in a positive way because we are going to continue posting and announcing growth. I don't think this is not something structural in terms of what we do as an activity, but we have costs for registrations. We have fees that are charged by the entities that issue the credits. So -- but I believe these are the main points that we should consider when we look at the SG&A line and talks about operations and expenses. You have to look it as a whole in relation to the potential market of biomethane. I believe that in the projects with Estre, the 3 projects that we disclosed, this was something very specific and opportunistic. We continue to be very focused on the development of projects of assets in the landfills owned by the company. But we also saw a good opportunity there. And together, 1 plus 1 is not 2, but more. We had a player who was not monetizing biogas and Orizon will be able to contribute by gaining the NPV, the net present value of biomethane. And on the other edge, we have the supplier of biogas and the supplier was not monetizing and he will now. So we didn't have at first those options, but we cannot refuse this kind of opportunity. So this is the plan on our side. You said in relation to the models, we are very focused on this agenda, adding biomethane in the grid, and we had a sale of compressed biomethane with one entity, and we are going to continue looking at that. We can look at the liquefied substance, and we are going to be delivering those services and products according to the demand. Yes, the, last sales agreement shows that we have the flexibility to work in different models. In the last contract, from Tremembé biogas, we used the compressed form. So that shows that we can work with -- in more than one model. And we have analyzed other models, which are in the maturing process. You mentioned one model of logistics, one model of substitution of diesel. And when we talked about the Fuel of the Future Law, we talked about replacing diesel with biomethane or natural gas. And what I can say to you is that those initiatives have reached us and we have started discussing the possibility of going into this market. It's a market that would replace a fuel, which is very expensive. The energy replacement of diesel allows for a monetization that is even greater with biomethane. So we have been evaluating all this. And with the maturing of all those fronts, there are many agreements that are likely to be closed involving biomethane down the road. And it's not wrong for me to say that you are likely to see in the future contracts using those models.

Our next question comes from Guilherme Lima with Santander.

I have 2 questions on my side. Very quick questions. If you could make some comments about the scenario of growth of prices. You mentioned some now. So how do you see this evolution? Can we expect something for the next quarter? So what are negotiations like? What are the price adjustments in Paulínia? Could you make some comments on the capital structure? How do you see the leverage ratio at the end of the year of 2024? And what to expect for 2025?

So I'm going to answer the first part, and then Leo will talk about the leverage. As I said before, you're going to see another positive impact on the fourth quarter from our average ticket. We look at the average ticket of all our landfills. I say this because we have some new agreements for some ecoparks that will start operating in the third quarter. This is why we make all those calculations, and we understand this is going to have a positive impact in the global average ticket of all the landfills. So you can have an impact -- you can expect a positive impact for the fourth quarter.

Guilherme, in relation to capital structure, the leverage ratio for the year is what you saw in the financials. The projects of the year are fully funded, all equated and the leverage that you see is what you can expect for the end of the year. At the end of the year, we have a benefit that some biomethane plants, some projects that are still on paper will start operating. So you have even better improvement in the operating results, and that will give room for leverage. Of course, even if the spreads are under pressure, the interest rate base is very high. So we have to be very careful in the financial dimension. And we're always monitoring the profile of the debt. We have a very elongated profile that provides us with the comfort to work as we are.

Our next question comes by with [indiscernible].

Congratulations on the results. We have seen important headway in the laws and rules of several segments of the company. Could you talk about the impact of those advances in the future profitability of the company?

Yes, I think so. In practice, I believe, as I said before. So let's start with the law of Fuel of the Future, Combustível do Futuro. So this has a certain level of impact. Today, our contracts of biomethane operate according to the supply and demand law. And all the agreements did not have this incentive or this [ obligatory ] of a minimum percentage of biomethane in the grid. We didn't have that before. And if you have a law that is going to bring this obligation for the next years, of course, you're going to have an impact on the demand. You're going to have a positive impact on the demand more than it is already impacted voluntarily. And this is likely to bring in more clients and may positively affect the price of how we trade biomethane. As for carbon, as I said before, the approval of the law at the Senate together with the Article 6.7 in [indiscernible] unlocks a relevant amount of carbon credit that we were not able to commercialize or to trade because they were projects that could not migrate to the voluntary market. So they were MDL projects. We were waiting for the approval in the regulated market. And I mentioned this, but there is also Itapevi and Nova Iguaçu and some landfills of the company were generating carbon, and we had no perspective of selling them. So we unlock this possibility of trading those carbon from those landfills. And this is going to bring us new revenue, which was on hold before this approval. All those projects in addition to have a practical effect on the revenue, both of carbon and biomethane, they also bring us the confidence that we are on the right track when producing this host of renewable product. And this is how we refer to the platform when we value the waste. If you allow me in relation to the compliance, and we see that authorities are putting pressure on the closure of dump sites, and there is a differentiation of what is an adequate and what's not an adequate asset such as dumpsites and landfills. So waste should be directed to landfills. And these are good opportunities for those who are well established in the market. And we have been monitoring together with the federal government, the state government, local governments. We see there's a very proactive agenda that would contribute to reverse economy and those initiatives. We have seen this very present. We have seen that these items are on the agenda of authorities, and these are likely to unlock profitability and more revenue to the company.

Our next question comes from Fillipe Andrade with Itaú BBA.

I would like to address 2 points. First, I would like to know if you could provide a greater visibility on the impact of energy sale and if the revenue would be extraordinary for the fourth quarter and for the first quarter of 2025. Are they incentivized? Are those long-term agreements when they were executed? Or are they legacy contracts from those assets? And how the thermal generation converses with biomethane generation, especially when we talk about Jaboatão and Ultragaz contract. And I would also like to hear from you how is the -- what is the status of gold standard of the other assets? And how does the company see the price dynamics of the carbon credit for the next years considering the context that you mentioned about the regulated market in Brazil and also from the resolutions of COP29.

Fillipe, I'm going to start talking about the thermal power plant, and then will talk about gold standard and some aspects related to price. Talking from the thermal power plants, we have 2 power plants, Jaboatão dos Guararapes, which is bigger. And now for the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, we will have those plants operating at full speed and then biomethane plant will start operating and then there will be a phasing phaseout. And the biomethane plant will meet the law for the -- in terms of supply. And then the plant is going to be fully operational in 2026 and an important volume of energy will generated. As to the date of those agreements, those agreements were executed along the year. So we had already a visibility of the thermal power plants would be purchased. I think you remember, we had the options for purchase, and we felt comfort to sell the energy in -- for 2025 -- in 2025. We haven't disclosed the start of operation of the biomethane plant because first, we sell the agreements and then we start looking at the CapEx. So first, we're starting with the trading activities and then start looking at the CapEx. And then we'll start the operation in 12 to 18 months. And probably part of 2026, we'll still use the biogas from the landfill. And then we will -- we might have an opportunity with the federal auctions or something specific for those thermal power plants. I think that we can see something as of next quarter. It will start generating cash and will contribute to this line. As to gold standard, as I've said before, the projects are moving as expected. We are likely to have in the 30 or 40 days, we'll have the proper approval, Maceió and then São Gonçalo. So all the projects are doing well. And the other projects are on track in the approval proceedings, and we continue with the expectation of having all the projects that are in the process of migration, have their migration actually up to the end of the year. So this migration started to be regular and consistent and the expectations are ever more controlled. As to price, as Leo mentioned, all those news from the regulatory dimensions is very recent. But what we can do is to give you some expectations because this is not impacted on the prices that we are negotiating for the next quarter or for the other quarters. So the pressure is positive in relation to prices. So we have brought in the regulated market into the Brazilian scenario and also to the global scenario. So that means that we have a possibility of accessing a price, which is much better than the voluntary market from the historic perspective. So immediately, when you access this market, the sales price will be better when you sell those price to regulated market. And when you bring into the regulated market, part of the credits that were generated will move from the voluntary market where they were out of a need. Now -- and then you're going to decrease the offer in the voluntary market, and you can even increase the demand as the -- as we saw. So you can create an imbalance in the voluntary market. And in the voluntary market can also have a positive impact on prices. So we are going to see the studies and consider the expectations, but the news can bring positive impact on the price of carbon for next year and the future.

Our next question comes from Mr. Gabriel Francisco with Drýs Capital Equitas.

Congratulations on the results. Could you provide more detail on the fiscal evolution of Paulínia and Jaboatão project? And could you provide more visibility on how the carbon credit trading will happen in a more recurrent manner for the next quarters?

Gabriel, thank you for your questions. I think we talked about biomethane in Jaboatão. We expect the operations to start in next -- in the first quarter of 2025. So the projects are on budget, on time. Biomethane, for example, the plant is about to be implemented in Jaboatão. And in Paulínia, we had the commercialization of biomethane executed after Jaboatão dos Guararapes. So in relation to your second question, how you're going to do the trading? We're working very hard so that the carbon credit can be consistently present in our results so that you can see this in a recurrent manner. I believe that this advance in the regulatory framework will help in the commercialization of the credits. We are very optimistic. So that this can be included every quarter in the near future. And to complement in terms of carbon and target for the company, you're going to continue to see spot prices of carbon in the fourth quarter of 2024 and in the first and second quarters of next year. And our target, and this is what the company has been doing for is that up to the end of next year, we can have a large part of carbon credit closed with longer-term contracts. You see that the sale that was made in the third quarter was to a final client. And today, we have different fronts of negotiations with final clients. And those final clients, they have a different way of operating. They open up the possibility of selling at a recurrent aspect. So it's a 3- to 5-year contract with planned sale of carbon, the same way as we do with biomethane. We intend to have planned sales of carbon as part of our generation, 50% or 60% of the carbon generated by the company to be already sold with 5 or 6 years of duration, and we can work also on the spot market, always taking advantage of the increase in prices. So it's very much part of our strategy to continue working with those kinds of contracts and to see those contracts and those targets reached up to the end of next year.

The question-and-answer session has come to an end. We would like to turn the floor back to Mr. Pilao for his final remarks.

Thank you, everyone, for being here with us. And if you have any questions, please refer to our IR area, and they will answer any additional questions that you may not have asked here. Have a very nice weekend. We are going to have a long weekend ahead of us. So enjoy it.

Orizon video conference has been completed. We would like to thank everyone, and have a good day. [Statements in English on this transcript were Spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]