Panasonic Holdings Corporation (6752.T) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
November 22, 2022
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Masahiro Shinada
executiveHello, everyone. I am Shinada, Masahiro Shinada from Panasonic Corporation. My voice might sound a bit nasal, but I hope you will bear with me. So once again, thank you very much indeed for coming to this individual business strategy briefing of Panasonic Corporation. I appreciate your attendance. I'd also like to thank you for your support and patronage before our company. Thank you very much indeed. Now this is today's agenda. In June, we had an IR day and for the first time as a new Panasonic, we had this IR Day. We talked about overall strategies as well as the strategies of the 3 divisional companies. And today, we will talk about some of the updates of the overall strategy as well as European growth strategy for HVAC company. At the same time, we would also announce the medium- to long-term strategy for Cold Chain Solutions Company, CCS, and China and Northeast Asia company, CNA. We will have the presidents of each divisional company to present. Now as we announced in Q2 business results, the China business was excluded from the scope of consolidation of CCS to eliminate the double counting. And today, we will be presenting based on this reclassification. Now as for this reclassification, this reflects the change of the positioning of the cold chain business in China. The cold chain business in China. For that, we have our partner in China, and we have transferred some of the businesses to the partner. And we have made the decision that it's appropriate for this local entity to take the leadership in the management. And in CCS, CCS will focus their resources to Japan and North America, which are the priority areas to enhance their competitiveness. Now let me talk about the overall progress. I'd like to follow this structure that you are seeing right now. First half, I would review the first half of fiscal 2023 and the second half is the progress status of the medium- to long-term strategy. Let me start with the review of the first half of fiscal 2023. So this slide shows the overview of the medium- to long-term strategy that we explained in June. On the left, we have the most important theme for 3-year medium term. The profit growth in 7 priority businesses, company-wide operational reforms and implementation of ESG and IR into the management strategies. So as a KGI for fiscal 2025, those are listed on the right-hand side, EBITDA of JPY 350 billion, ROIC of 10% or more. In addition, the 3-year cumulative operating cash flow, JPY 660 billion. In order to achieve those goals, we are making progress, and I'd like to explain to you the progress that we made in 6 months. This slide shows the trend of sales and EBITDA year-on-year comparison by quarter. As you can see, in Q3 fiscal 2022, the sales and profit declined year-on-year. But from the Q4 of FY '22, the sales started to increase and the profit decrease trend stopped. And from Q2 of FY '23, the profit started to increase. So let me go into the details of the Q2 of FY '23. Now concerning the Q2 of FY '23, this is the year-on-year EBITDA changes and factors. First of all, the growth of priority businesses such as HVAC systems and overseas electrical construction materials, led to the sales increase, pushing up the EBITDA by JPY 21 billion, which is shown as #1 and deteriorating external environment, such as higher raw material prices and logistic costs and ForEx pushed down the EBITDA by JPY 23.5 billion. Operational reforms, including the price revisions and cost structure reform pushed up the EBITDA by JPY 20.9 billion. That is shown as #2. In addition, there was a reduction of the restructuring expenses. And overall, EBITDA increased by JPY 23 billion year-on-year. Especially deteriorating external environment was offset 89% by operational reforms. This led to the higher profit. Next, on this slide, number 1 is the profit contribution by growing priority businesses. And also number two, the recovery through operational reforms. Let me now go into the specifics of those 2. Here is the year-on-year comparison of the trend of profit from increased sales by quarter. So chronological trend is shown from Q3 of FY 2022. The main factors -- the increase and decrease factors are shown. The shown in blue are the growth businesses. In addition to profit contribution of growing air to water in Europe, and overseas electrical construction materials business, display case in North America increased in sales and also the home appliance recovered. And with that profit grew with higher sales. And a negative impact from lower demand after stay-at-home period in Japan and the supply problem due to the Shanghai lockdown and that contributed significantly to profit, as you can see on this slide. Next, I'd like to talk about the recovery from the deteriorating external environment. So this shows the quarterly year-on-year comparison showing the progress of recovery. So each -- on the left-hand side, we are showing the Q3 of FY 2022. So each bar below the line is the effects of the deteriorating environment. So raw material cost increase and the higher logistic costs are included here. Now the upper portion, the blue part shows the recovery via operational reforms. In Q3 FY 2022, we could only counter the deteriorating environment by 35%, but by accumulating the operational reform, gradually, we made progress. And as I said, in Q2 of FY '23, we have offset or countered up to 90% almost. As for the external environment in the past year, there were lockdowns due to the COVID-19 and the change in situation of the Russia and Ukraine and higher raw material prices and higher logistic costs and unstable ForEx. Those external environmental changes were higher or more than what we expected. But vis-a-vis those have worsening factors through the continued operational reforms, we are making a steady progress. I think you can see that from this slide. As for the specific progress of the operational reform, I will go into the details in the second half of my presentation. So now the first half's of the year is summarized. And also, I have to talk about the initiatives for the second half. So in the first half, as I explained so far, the environment -- external environment has been changing very rapidly, and we have continued to take the measures and those ongoing measures are gaining results and seeing fruit. And as a result, in Q2 -- in Q2, we increased the sales and the profit. The major driver of the performance has been the higher sales, mainly of the growth businesses. And also, we have how we reacted to the changing environment with operational reforms. Now we -- already 2 months passed in the second half, and we are starting to see the new changes in the environment. In the middle of this slide, we are listing the risks and opportunities from the business perspective. In the second half, we would try to identify the risks and then try to make efforts so that we can reach the announced targets. Major initiatives are shown at the bottom. First of all, to execute the investment for the growing businesses. And through the operational reform across as a company, we would fully engage with the reform efforts and try to streamline the inventories to maximize the operating cash flow. So in order to achieve our targets, this chart shows the changes from the initial forecast. The top half shows the forecast that we announced at the beginning of the year and the second half or the bottom half is the changes -- factors behind the changes based on the forecast right now. As you can see in the middle, the Shanghai lockdown led to the negative impact of about JPY 4 billion. The ForEx led to the negative impact of JPY 7 billion. But with the operational result, including the price revision and the rationalization, we have countered this with JPY 11 billion. And through that, we are going to accelerate our efforts to reach our targets. Now let me talk about the medium- to long-term strategies. First, I'd like to give you the positioning of priority businesses more in detail. The slide on the left is the current portfolio that we announced on the IR Day in June and also the portfolio that we would like to achieve in 2030. So [indiscernible] and overseas electrical construction materials from now to 2030, they are positioned as growth leaders. Energy Solution and the CO2 refrigeration system with freezer are leader candidates, but in 2030, they will try to become the growth leaders. And the electrical construction materials in Japan and display cases and home appliances in Japan will continue to be as a stable profitability in 2030. The chart on the right-hand side shows the trend of the 7 priority businesses in each market growth cycle. So as you can see, the leader candidate, the energy solution and CO2 refrigeration system they're in the adoption period. The growth leader HVAC and also the -- of the overseas electrical construction materials, i.e. the growth period and the electrical construction materials in Japan, display case and home appliances or white goods in Japan are in the mature period. Depending on the growth stage, there are different stages of the growth as well as competitive environment and customer needs. So the leader candidates business. For that, we would try to make the investments so that we can lead in the market setup and also the growth leader sales in the growth period, we will try to invest in the priority areas to expand the sales. And for the stable productivity business, we would invest for the added value and also to improve the profitability through the operational reform. And based on those, we are thinking, we will try to clarify the priorities of the businesses even further so that we can accelerate the reselection and concentration. So as I explained, out of those 7 priority businesses, for the growth leaders and leader candidates, what are we going to do in the medium to long term. This slide shows the strategic road map of those businesses. That's written in red shows the initiatives to contribute to performance in 3 years. The blue are the initiatives to be started in 3 years and will contribute in the next medium term or onwards. So we try to differentiate those. The graph on the right shows how we are trying to grow those businesses towards 2030. This is an image, that I'm showing to you. Top 2 growth leader businesses. There are already market growth that we see. So we had to make sure we make good investment so that those businesses will continue to make contribution to our performance towards 2030. And I will talk about the details from now on. Now the second bottom ones are the legal candidates or the development businesses, we will look at opportunities in the environment and try to make the upfront investment as well as the market development. And when the market starts up, we are hoping that those businesses will make a major contribution. So that is how we are positioning those development businesses. And we'd like to grow those businesses in the next medium term. So in coming 3 years, we will steady to execute the development and demonstration and design and others to enable that. This chart shows our self-assessment of the first half progress for the 7 priority businesses. This looks at the KPI progress and the EBITDA progress from the perspective of where we stand after 6 months against the KPIs we set out on IR Day in June. First, KPI progress. For growth leaders and leader candidates, i.e., 4 growth businesses -- CAGR in the first half was 15% exceeding the CAGR 8% or higher for FY [ '21. ] Therefore, this is circle. As for the 3 stable revenue businesses, EBITDA rate for first half was plus/minus 0%. And FY '21, we were not able to see improvement against the EBITDA rate of plus 5 percentage points or higher, therefore, it is triangle. Next, regarding EBITDA progress. 4 growth businesses increased EBITDA by JPY 11.4 billion, on par with the plan of the plus JPY 60 billion in the midterm. On the other hand, 3 stable revenue business increased EBITDA by JPY 3.4 billion in first half, which did not reach the target of plus JPY 50 billion in the midterm. In the first half, especially for the stable revenue, home appliances and domestic electrical construction materials, the impact of Shanghai lockdown was very large. And I suppose there was -- there has been no impact of Shanghai lockdown, the numbers without the impact of Shanghai lockdown is shown here. And if that is the case, then the figure is similar to the level of the plan. Now I would like to explain the progress of the growth leader to 2 areas. The first growth leader is HVAC system. In the HVAC company, excluding the home appliances route, equipment and solutions fall under this category. As shown in the graph on the left side, HVAC achieved double-digit growth in first half with sales of JPY 303.8 billion, which was 110% year-on-year, of which European sales increased by 68% year-on-year. As written on the right-hand side, this is due to the expanded sales network built in each country to meet active demand for European A2W. If you look at European A2W, sales increased at 2.3x, far exceeding the market growth. In order to further expand business, as we announced on October 3 of last month, we made a decision to invest approximately JPY 50 billion to boost production in Czech Republic and other places by 2025 and strengthen business foundation, such as R&D structure. And also marketing costs will be spent to further strengthen our business foundation. Also, as we announced last week, we signed an agreement to acquire [ chiller ] business from System AB or Sweden to strengthen our light commercial sector looking towards European CFC regulations and shift from combustion type devices. With this acquisition, we can offer high value-added solutions, not only in air conditioning, but also in water heating and room heating, thereby significantly accelerating the business growth. European strategy of HVAC Company will be explained by Mr. Michiura later on. So I do hope that you ask questions to him. Now moving on to the second growth leader business, which is overseas electrical construction materials, as shown on the left-hand side, sales in the first half was JPY 118 billion, which is 132% year-on-year, also achieving double-digit growth. The 3 key countries of India, Turkey and Vietnam achieved 138% growth. This is due to the capacity increased in line with the market growth, expansion of clients such as distributors and strengthening our product line up in the 3 key countries with robust growth. And we have established the new factory in [indiscernible] and we started production in April. We have #1 share in all 3 countries, especially in India and Vietnam, we achieved growth, which exceeded the economic growth in the first half. In the second half, we will continue to take measures to increase sales. We'll utilize the -- we will increase the utilization rate of 3 city factory, which started operation in April and we will also start construction of new buildings for the Vietnamese factory to expand production capacity for next years ahead of other companies. Next, I'd like to talk about company-wide operational reforms. This slide shows the overall picture of the 3-year operational reforms we have shown to you last time, we have overcome the effects of environmental deterioration such as raw materials price and exchange rate by implementing operations such as continuous cost structure reforms and price revisions which will total over JPY 130 billion. Today, I will explain the progress in -- with the points highlighted in gray, capacity -- company-wide reinforcement of direct materials cost competitiveness, SCM and ECM reforms and review of shipping price of home appliances in Japan, electrical construction materials and overseas HVAC systems. First is the progress of the company-wide reinforcement of direct materials cost competitiveness. Regarding this, we established procurement department in the strategic headquarters, which we post to meet in April and we are implementing drastic measures in 4 categories, shifting the phase from individual operational procurement to overall optimal procurement. I will explain the initiatives for the first half. The first one, materials, we switched to purchasing general purpose materials from several companies. The second one, semiconductors and electric components, we switched from purchasing primarily from Japanese companies to concentrating on major industry players. 3 electrical components for motors and others, we centralized manufacturers and promote common use and general purpose products by design department. Four, mechanical parts and assembly parts, we select strategic partners and concentrate supplies to 20%. With these initiatives we estimate JPY 5 billion reduction in FY '23. As we move towards FY '25, we will accumulate further effects by promoting these initiatives. I'll show you 2 examples of company-wide reinforcement of direct materials cost competitiveness. In the example shown on the left shows the filters of heat exchanges. Mapping of common parts were made from design stage and by gathering information and strengthening collaboration, centralized contracts between businesses were further deepened resulting in 60% cost reduction. Example on the right is centralized contracts for electrical components for motors, which have the highest repo effect in the company, common use among the departments and centralized contracts for global procurements were promoted, resulting in cost reduction of JPY 2 billion for this fiscal year. Both are examples of concrete efforts going beyond the framework of the organization and with the big framework of Panasonic and taking a company-wide initiative resulting in specific results. Next, I'll explain the initiatives to construct actual demand-oriented operation. Last time I explained a new sales scheme to accurately convey product value of domestic consumer electronics. The intention is to build a mechanism for offering high-value other the quality products worthy of the price, which is appreciated by the customers in a timely manner. This is only valid if you continue to generate products, which are chosen by the customers. Therefore, this is a scheme which is valid only when you can develop customer-oriented products and it is not a mere sales-side initiative or maintaining and controlling prices. This leads to optimization or extension of the product by cycle rather than launching products with minor changes, which has little difference from the previous year's model every year, customers are able to use products with true value for a longer period. For example, life cycle of the work [indiscernible] dish washers and dryers and microwave ovens are prolonged to 2 or 3 years. As a result, it is now possible to shift development resources that used to be spent on minor change to new categories. We announced the pretrial of IH rice cooker with automated measuring function on November 15. You can see the photo of this product. We announced the pre-trial and many people for the first 1,200 people, we have already received application from 7,000 people. This had big percussion and reaction from the consumers. And indeed, the new products, which are worthy of Panasonic. We are shifting our resources for the products which are appealing. As you can see on the right-hand side, we are implementing new initiatives with this division towards constructing an actual demand-oriented SCM process. We see an initiative to rebuild IT infrastructure and logistics for the whole supply chain and build SCM process, which is linked to real demand. We are working toward introduction in FY '24 and POC is underway. Now I have explained to you the progress so far in the first half. And what I have explained is just a steppingstone towards 2030, I'm sure that there will be further change in the environment, but at the end of the day, in 2030, we aim to become a company which will continue to evolve in the long run and become #1 or #2 in EBITDA in each of the business. And I see the kind of cooperation and support. Lastly, future IR schedule. With the new company structure, we are enhancing disclosure intentionally enhancing the level and quality of disclosure by strengthening engagement and communication with the capital market we will have the market-oriented perspective rooted in the management, would lead to further management reform. The schedule on the side shows the IR calendar schedule for FY '23 and '24 after IR Day in June, site visits, roundtable and [indiscernible] meetings. And we have had various opportunities to facilitate your understanding of our company's activities. We will continue to deepen and increase opportunities for engagement with you and seek your kind cooperation and support. With this I would like to conclude my presentation. I thank you very much for your kind attention. Thank you very much. Now I'd like to take questions. So please bear with us.
Unknown Executive
executiveTo answer your questions, in addition to Mr. Shinada, we have Mr. [indiscernible], CFO of the Panasonic Corporation. Now we are ready to take questions. We are taking questions both from Shiodome Building as well as online. As for the online, we only take questions in Japanese. Thank you. we are only taking questions remote questions in Japanese. Now I would like to take a question from [indiscernible] from Shiodome Building, Harada-San from Goldman Sachs Securities.
ハラダ
analystThank you. I'm Harada of Goldman Sachs. This is a great opportunity. Thank you very much indeed. I have 2 questions. First, toward the end of my presentation, you talked about the supply chain management process and you are rebuilding this. So as for the Lifestyle business, the operational reform and to improve the profitability by operational reform, I think has a lot of opportunities. So from FY '24, you'll be introducing this and what kind of impact or the positive impact do you expect? That's my first question. And the second is that this time, the air conditioning is 1 of the growing businesses that you mentioned. And on Page 21, EBITDA first, the #1 and number two, you want to have a collection of those businesses. And some of the businesses probably will be shrinking. So maybe some of the businesses which might not go so well and the priority becoming lower, if you have any of them, I'd like to know them. I would like to basically know your portfolio change.
Masaharu Michiura
executiveAs for the SCM, of course, we have to consider the counterparts. So of course, our scheme is that we will -- the counterparties also need to make investments in ICT. So the customer information system and our system is to get connected so that we can have the inventories and achieve the 95% that I mentioned earlier. So as of now, in the second half, we're experimenting is 1 major company to start experimenting with the scheme. So from April next year, we would like to start the production of this system. So what we are doing right now is that for example, the shortage of the products, the front-loading laundry, washing equipment is 1 of the things that we're experimenting on. So in addition to the front-loading washing machine, the refrigerator and air conditioner in Japan. We like to apply this to other products starting in FY '24 and onwards. So as of now, the major customers and different products we do not have a clear formula. So the next time it may be in IR meeting in June, we will be able to give you more clarity on this topic. So until then, we would like to ask you to give us some time, and that is the current status. So in June, we will be able to talk about the customers and the products and what is the percentage out of the overall sales and how what kind of cost reduction that we can expect. Maybe we can talk about those in IR Day next June. So that's my first point. The second point is the collection of the businesses of number 1 and number 2. When we became the Panasonic Corporation, some of the low profitability businesses where we have restrained from them. So that was since the beginning -- from the beginning. So when you look at the major categories, for example, [indiscernible] within the [indiscernible], this particular product is something that we are restoring from. If we find that, we might do so. But when you look at the business unit. As of now, we are not thinking of withdrawing from any of those businesses that we have right now. If you go to Page 12. So in terms of portfolio, there is assessment business at the bottom left. That's Mr. Shinada said. Right now, we do not have any unprofitable businesses, but if we also consider the region. So there are some difficult businesses or in some cases, some of the businesses need to be transferred to the partners in order to develop and prosper. So one of the candidates is the business. appliance business in China and Asia. And so those are 1 of the -- this is 1 of the businesses that we need to assess in the years. So in addition to Asia, in Europe as well, as for the white goods, we have to make sure that we assess. And as a result of the assessment, we have to decide what to do. So assessment doesn't mean that we are -- we plan to restore from them. And as Mr. Shinada said at the outset, the stable profitability, for example, display case in 3 areas. They are positioned as a stable profitability. But the business in China, they are also under the G&A, there are finalizing the direction of this business. So ultimately, when we can, we will be talking about that and how we change the portfolio and so forth, will be explained to you in detail.
Operator
operatorI'd like to move on to the next person. Okazaki-San from Nomura Securities.
Yu Okazaki
analystOkazaki from Nomura Securities. Slide 10. EBITDA '22 and comparison from last time, and the cost and the exchange rate is difficult. And the price is progressing, price revision is progressing more than expected. But with a difficult environment, with the increase in price, there's a risk that the demand might be dampened in the first half, pricing strategy has been progressing well. And the changes of the demand as a result. How do you look at the changes in the demand as a result of price revision?
Masaharu Michiura
executivePrice increase, generally, you cannot generalize as Mr. Okazaki said, if we do not meet the value of the consumers, then they would not accept. So right value, we have to revert the value to the right level. Based upon that assumption, we revised the price. We take actions to revise price. So it's not the case that we are neglecting the consumers I do hope that you understand this point clearly. In order to do that, there are a number of approaches for price revision. Total number of approaches are taken, for one thing, new sales scheme. As you know, we have -- we got products that we have confidence in will be the subject in the scope. And as written here, the kind of products that there is no other product or our product capability is very strong. And even with the poor economic environment, the kind of products which give preference to the customers. These are the kind of products. And the total amount of sales of home appliances, then 30% of that is made up of these new products. And here, there's ample value -- so we and customers and sales channel, all are satisfied about the price, and we are proceeding smoothly. And when it comes to repair parts, where we were not able to maintain the price there is such a category of products. And in line with the current situation, we conduct a review. Then this price level will be reasonable for these products taking opportunity. Of this, we revised -- reviewed the price. So as I said, this asset -- we set the price, which is commensurate with the value. And based upon that, we have taken the action to revise price. And it isn't there no complaint from the customers, it doesn't mean so. But generally speaking, we are able to receive understanding of the customers and proceeding with the price revision.
Operator
operatorWe take another question from the Shiodome building and then move to the online. Nakane from Mizuho Securities.
Yasuo Nakane
analystNakane from Mizuho Securities. I have 2 questions. So as much as you can answer, FY '24 what Mr. Shinada is thinking about in terms of sales and EBITDA, the size of them? And also by region, what would be the percentage of each region. How much resource do you mean to allocate. That's my first question. And the second is the operation. Japan and abroad, the sales companies being combined. And I think in the previous session, you said that you think about this. So organizationally, what were the changes or the changes that you will be making and what would be the advantages, if you can talk about the B2B, B2C, Japan and overseas, if you can give us some additional information, so within the new framework, yes.
Unknown Executive
executiveFirst question, FY '24. Frankly speaking, the sales target, the numerical target, probably it's too early to talk about that. So top line number, we have not yet finalized it. As I said in the past, our company, I think that management and infrastructure have been weak. So based on that reflection, we want to make sure that we rebuild this in the first medium term. So in a sense, about the prices, as I explained, and also the procurement actions, we want to make sure that we work on them. And as an extension of that, we would like to become the collection of the strong businesses. So naturally, after 10, we'd like to go for 15. So as of now, we do not have a specific numbers.
Yu Okazaki
analystWhat about the percentage of the region? If you can give us an image of it.
Unknown Executive
executive2030 is far in the future. So this is not yet something that is being authorized internally. But the percentage of Japan will be coming down. Right now, it's about 50% in Japan, but maybe that will go down to 40% or 35%. And the biggest growth comes from Europe in terms of growth rate and also India is what we are thinking about. And of course, China is after that. So the percentage of the China currently 12% to 13% so that would increase or a bit close to 20% or so. And so Europe and India are going to grow faster. So that will be the image that I can give you. In terms of the growth rate, that is what I can talk about. So for the second part, so we have B2C and B2B businesses, 2 different types of the businesses. So as a management team, what we are discussing is that B2B2C is something that we'd like to understand. We'd like to become a company who understand that. And that is 1 of the characteristics of Panasonic. Until now, we did not say B2B2C. So for example you made -- there was a site visit of Superbox. So if you consider a building, and there is an office in the building, there are equipment and lighting and so forth. And right now, after having this pandemic experience, our workers in the office. We have to -- or all the companies have to consider the well-being of the employees. So business is B2B, but the users of the space with the end users are not the decision makers to choose the equipment. But the well-being of the users and sustainability is something that needs to be considered. So that is the major change that we are seeing happening in the society. So within the company, we have B2B and B2C. We have expertise in those areas. So understanding B2B2C, the end users. I think that is the area that we can make a lot of contributions. Also until now, we were separate companies and what we are trying to enhance is the B2B. And for each account, how do we take care of each account and how can we make improvement of that? That's something that we are trying to do. So for example, convenience store or supermarket, those customers, of course, we provide lighting and electrical wiring and conditioning and display cases. So we provide multiple products to the users. And right now, in the group, based on the company system, those were separate. But now we are in one company. So our customers and the difficulties and issues of each account, we want to make sure that we stay close with the customers so that we can do a very close sales activity. So the biggest change is the -- enhancing the B2B account sales and also B2B2C, that's something that we can discuss internally and provide values and also sustainability. In that sense, carbon neutrality, we can provide the more integrated and comprehensive solutions or the proposals to the customers. And that's 1 of our strengths. So that is -- those are the areas that we want to strengthen.
Masaharu Michiura
executiveThe first question, as Shinada said. As Panasonic Corporation -- it's not that we have a clear picture for 2030 in concrete terms. If you look at Page 14, we have priority businesses and 7 businesses were chosen, for example, of our growth business. CAGR of 8% by 2030. On the portfolio, looking at the market growth and our position, we conducted simulation. As this is a portfolio, portfolio will change over time. But for example, for the growth business, we have the CAGR. And for the stable business, it's not that the revenue will grow that much. Then priority businesses will have about JPY 2.1 trillion of sales. And if we achieve these KPIs additional JPY 1 trillion can be achieved based upon the simulation on the portfolio. And depending upon the changes of the environment, we'll be managing the company accordingly.
Operator
operatorMoving on to [indiscernible] take questions online. [Operator Instructions] [indiscernible] from Denka Shinbun, please.
Unknown Analyst
analystI have 2 questions, if I may. The first question -- with the new organization of the Lifestyle business, more than 1 year has passed and more than 6 months after the new company was established. The organizational change and change of the company's structure and the performance. Apart from the performance of the business, the motivation inside the company or as much fall in the company. Look for Mr. Shinada, what changed most. If you can then let me as to what changes did you see? That's my first question. Second point, the new sales scheme, last year, 8% was the coverage of the total product. And according to your material, the 30% of the -- for the home appliances. How do you look at the coverage of the products under the new scheme? Those products which are chosen strong products, then it may not be all the products. Then next fiscal year, how much it's going to grow? And ultimately, all the products will fall under the scope domestic home appliances, commercial practice, this has a big impact. So going forward, what is your thinking? And how far are you going to extend this and the coverage of the new sales scheme?
Masahiro Shinada
executiveWith regards to your first question, as we have the -- we established a new company, what has changed. As you know, if you look at the management team, then based upon the knowledge and the experience of the past, every person in the management team is challenging new businesses. I'm sure that you can see that. For instance, after this, Michiura-san will be talking. He was the President of LAS. He has the experience of lighting business, and he is a specialist in electric commercial construction materials and was looking at air conditioning as well. And what used to be with appliance joined AS and the new HVAC is established. But culture and the way of doing business was separate and different. So in that way, everybody is faced with new challenges and trying something new. Why is it? Looked from a fresh perspective and looked from a customers' perspective, how does our business look like? Once again, we'd like to reset and see how our business is from a customers' perspective. What the management team is focusing upon? Is that Panasonic is very large in scale and including overseas, we have close to 100,000 employees globally and about 36,000 people in Japan alone. And there are people who do not have to look at customers and the people who are just looking inside the company. However, fundamental basic of business activity should be to addressing and looking at the customers. So in 1 year since October, we established a lifestyle business. The divisional company presence, based upon the basic thinking is looking at the business and addressing the customers, and they are able to address the reasons that they are conducting activities in and how the organization is aligned, and the president of the divisional companies are focusing upon that. So the organizational structure change and how the change has occurred will be explained in April next year, we'll be able to update you. So we look outside. Outward, not inward. And we have been focusing upon that, and we are able to see some results already. That is my response to [ Gen-san's ] first question. The second question regarding sales scheme. How much coverage the new scheme is. 20% currently and perhaps 30% because, as I said, with the definition, our flagship products, we cannot say that all the products are flagship products. About 30% -- a bit more than 30% of the total products would be a yardstick in the medium term. However, when it comes to profit contribution, it should be far higher than 30%. In other words, with the limited number of lineup, we are able to jointly generate profit with a spirit of 3-way satisfaction. So not just increasing the weight in the sales, enhancing the quality of the products that offer, that is the key. I hope that this answers your question, [ Gen-san ].
Unknown Executive
executiveWe are running out of time. So we will take one more question online. And another question from this building. So from Nikkei, Hirashima.
Kento Hirashima
attendeeMy name is Hirashima from Nikkei. I hope you can hear me. About home appliances, I have a question. The development, manufacturing and sales, you have talked about the importance of this. So last year, in the briefing session, you mentioned the changes to the development structure. So the speed of the development. And I'm sure that you talked about that and what is the progress of speeding up the development speed, is it twice as fast? Or how do you see that? And also the integrated development manufacturing the sales, maybe it's not only for the home appliances. Have you seen any changes or the progress that you have made?
Unknown Executive
executiveYes. Well, about the integration of the development, manufacturing and sales, depending on the business, the formation is different. And so for example, the HVAC system, which you will hear about next. So the need for air quality is increasing and our technology of air quality and air conditioning, how do we merge them. Technological integration is progressing clearly. And also the home appliances last year or this June, as Matsushita-san said, micro enterprise, this is kind of a project-based product development. And there are 9 different projects going on. And for that, in addition to the speed of the development, something unique is that what we would like to generate. In that sense, we are getting a lot of good response. So speed up or increasing the speed is important. But as I said, the life cycle of products, we want to make it longer and we want to maintain the prices for longer terms. And so by doing so, the development in relation to the health and others, want to make sure that we can develop the good products that cannot be developed by others. And we are starting to see the progress. So we cannot really simply compare, for example, having the lead time or the development. Rather, I think we are planning the products that cannot be pursued by others, and we are commercializing them. So that's where we are seeing the progress and the changes by myself. I hope that answers your question Hirashima-san.
Unknown Attendee
attendeeLastly, last question from the floor with SMBC Nikko, Katsura-san, please.
Ryosuke Katsura
analystThank you very much today for this opportunity. Slide 13. I have 2 questions regarding Slide 13. HVAC, maybe actually ask this to Mr. Michiura. But the acquisition this time, EUR 100 million. But Mr. Shinada, you are able to make a decision in terms of speed and overall growth, there may be a larger M&A budget. So this is a piece of the overall M&A. Is that a fair understanding? That's my first question. And the second question is regarding overseas electrical construction materials rather than M&A, organic growth is larger than the investment needed for that. You talked about the factory in India and the regions and the content, as we look at the next 10 years towards 2030, what is your idea?
Unknown Executive
executiveThe first about HVAC. If my explanation is not sufficient, you can ask Mr. Michiura, and he will explain in more detail. Without submitting to Holdings BOD, it was decided by the BOD of Panasonic Corporation, Board of Panasonic Corporation, Mr. Kusumi, CEO of Holding; and Homma, Head of [ China ]; and Umeda, CFO, 3 of us are outside independent directors. And the Panasonic Corporation have 3 independent outside directors. And you can see the list of BOD members, you can see that. And the Board makes a decision and move forward. On a company-wide basis, M&A, their successes and failures, we -- there is a company-wide M&A committee. So we take actions and vis-a-vis, our actions and procedures, what are missing and we are aligning with the holding and making decisions. But the decision itself is by me and ultimately, go or no go can be decided by me. Europe or the HVAC business, we have various initiatives for example, especially chiller business this time is rather than having a cent going all over the building by circulating water, we can have air conditioning, cooling and heating. So this is Europe, which is advanced in environment, European market, this is very important. And then in North America, this can be deployed to Nordic countries -- to North America. So Europe and North America in the medium to long run, the water circulation will be very important. And the technological development element for that. We have to take that element into the company. And this acquisition was an important step forward to that end. That is about air conditioning. And the second, overseas electric construction materials, M&A. As I explained, basically, as more and more buildings are built, and there is a need for the electric construction materials. So the business is enjoying double-digit growth year-after-year. So for one thing, vis-a-vis the changing market, how quickly we are able to develop products which meet the local market? And secondly, we should have the factories and capacity for supplying products. That's the second point. And thirdly, the markets such as India are vast markets. So how to enhance our distribution capabilities? These 3 are the winning points. We set the time line and we follow this. And M&A, we don't have any opportunity for electric construction material not necessarily the housing type and nonresidential type buildings there. BW India is strong in residential, but the company growth tries to grow more, then they should be enhancing their view perspective to nonresidential business as well. Then Africa market look from India is promising as well. What comes after India is Africa. So how we set the foundation in Africa is important in the medium term. Thank you.
Unknown Executive
executiveSo with that, we'd like to end the session of Panasonic Corporation.
Masaharu Michiura
executiveHello, this is Michiura. I would like to focus on our Europe strategy today for HVAC company. So as you can see, we are facing a variety of social issues. And in order to solve these social issues, we have various technologies to solve these, and we are evolving day by day. Blue letters in the table below represents some of the technologies we are developing. For example, we're working on low GWP refrigerants for sustainable society. We have chillers and A2W air to water and using those technologies, we would like to contribute to the changes. And we are also contributing to the issues of bacteria viruses, air pollutions and productivity improvement with our various technologies, as you can see below. As introduced in our previous IR Day, we are committed to visualize the future with air. So our brand slogan is based on the concept of changing the future from the air. The world includes our commitment to serving the world and growing our businesses, and it has been a year since the establishment of HVAC corporation and all of our employees are working hard to realize this idea. This was also explained recently at the IR Day. These are the values provided by our company. It's not only towards the end users, but also for real estate owners and builders, we are committed to providing these 3 values. And we would like to contribute to the safety and security of the planet as well and to make a vibrant society. And we would like to achieve these 3 pillars of our company. Now I would like to explain the business areas in which our company plans for to expand in the future. Currently, our company's strength lies in the residential area. The yellow area on the bottom left of the screen is our strength. While leveraging the strength, we will focus on the light commercial area shown in the blue in the center of the screen. So the light commercial area, as you can see on the screen, it's about up to 5,000 square meters in Europe as a property. This includes small stores and hotels with less than 100 rooms. The light commercial and residential areas are where people can benefit the most from the aforementioned 3 values. For example, the sterilization and the odorization effects of our proprietary air purification technologies such as Ziaino and nanoe can be felt most effectively in small- and medium-sized stores and offices. So this is an area where we can fully utilize our strengths. This is our goal. In expanding businesses into the light field commercial field, we will build a recycling-oriented businesses as shown on the screen and continue to provide the highest value to the customers. We will be in contact with our customers throughout the entire process from the installation of equipment and systems to their replacement. And through this, we will utilize cloud computing, IT to remote monitoring and update the system to ensure the best air quality at all times. In building this business, it is essential to strengthen the equipment solutions business. There are 3 major points to be strengthened, which is written on the right-hand side. There are 3 of them. First is about strengthening customer contact points. And so in order to expand into the light commercial area, we need to fill in the missing pieces that we do not possess. So in order to expand into the commercial area, we have to find that and strengthen customer contact points. Next is building a recycling-oriented businesses. And to that end that we have to increase the number of specialists for this purpose. We will also make full use of IT and cloud computing. We will promote local optimal management tool and with that, I would like to explain our strategy for Europe. And regarding the local optimum, it was in a word local production for local consumption. So now going on to the explanation of strategy for Europe. First, the positioning of the European market. The left side is IAQ, which stands for indoor air quality. And this is the relationship between the level of interest in IAQ and the global market. Each market has very different air and building environments. For example, temperature, humidity building insulation are completely different by markets. And mold, odors, VOCs, markets have different concerns, too. So of the 4 key markets shown in blue, the European market has high potential to Panasonic's air quality value proposition. Now this is exactly where Panasonic's value propositions can be applied. Please see the right side of the screen. Europe is a leader in addressing environmental issues. It is a fierce battleground where companies are developing cutting-edge initiatives. We would like to thoroughly develop ourselves in the European market and then take the experience to the global market. Europe is a very tough market for us, and that is a market that we must win. Now this is the current business development in Europe. So again, we are involved in everything from residential to commercial, particularly strong is that we are having strong strength in residential market, including air to water. In the future, we intend to fill in the missing pieces that we currently do not own, while strengthening our business in the light commercial field. This is about the performance of the European market in the first half of FY 2023. The sales in the European business grew significantly by 168% compared to the previous year, growing exponentially. And the graph on the left side of the screen shows last year's annual sales results of the JPY 680.8 billion, JPY 92.2 billion was in Europe and EBITDA as operating company was 5.3%. Of the JPY 79.2 billion in annual sales in Europe, JPY 36.2 billion was in the first half of the year. As shown in the pie chart, sales expanded to JPY 60.8 billion in the first half of FY '23 among the sales of air-to-water increased 2.3x driving the business significantly. Regarding air-to-water. The industry growth was assumed about 1.5x that of the previous year. But we were able to achieve growth that exceeded the industry's growth. EBITDA for the European business was also more than double digit. We will continue to aim for growth. Now this is the characteristics of the European market. In a nutshell, environmental regulations are very tight and tough. As you can see on the left side of the screen, the Kigali revision of 2019 will include restrictions on CFC or F-gases substitutes in the Montreal Protocol. In Europe, the European Climate Law came into effect in July 29, and further efforts are needed to reduce GHG emissions by 55% or more compared to 1990 levels by 2030 and to virtually 0 emissions by 2050. Further efforts will be needed to address F-gases and GWP. We have no time to spare to address environmental issues. Now I would like to summarize the key points for strengthening our business in Europe. We will strengthen our equipment/solutions businesses to expand into the light commercial area. Please see the left side of the screen. As you can see, we are focusing on the 3 points of reinforcement. In addition, we will continue to strengthen our air quality business, including ventilation through collaboration with our business partners. Now these 7 specific initiatives in Europe are circled in green in the center of the screen. The details will be explained later. By accomplishing the measures shown on the screen, but we will strengthen our business by completing the development, manufacturing and sales of products within the European region. First, discussing the promotion of local production for local consumption in Europe. I will explain about operational reforms and strengthening customer contact points. Please see the left side of the screen. We will establish R&D bases in Europe. Specifically, we will promote R&D activities that are optimal for the European markets, such as low GWP, air purification and sensing. We will strengthen air-to-water's Czech base. We will strengthen our production system aiming to achieve a global production capacity of 1 million units. Now this is about 14x the capacity in 2022. Please see the center of the screen. We will build a recycling-oriented business. We will double the number of specialists in FY 2026. To strengthen customer contact, we will also enhance our training centers and showrooms. We will establish 50 training showroom locations throughout Europe in FY 2026, which is 1.5x more than in FY '22. In the air-to-water service and maintenance business, we started this in Denmark in 2021. We will expand a number of service centers and showrooms to the entire Europe. And by improving efficiency, until 2024, we expect a cumulative cash flow of JPY 6.2 billion and furthermore, our product supply lead time will be reduced by 60%. I will explain the environmental effects of air-to-water and the expansion of the market. The air-to-water is using the heat water pump and to be utilized for heating and cooling the building. And compared to the combustion gas boilers, the CO2 emissions will be reduced by 65%. And I would like you to see the right side of the screen. The air-to-water market is expected to grow at an annual rate of more than 29% from 2021 onwards, reaching a scale of more than 6 million units by 2030. As mentioned earlier, we will expand our production capacity and promote replacement of combustion equipment, thereby contributing to the environment in expanding our business at the same time. Next, let me talk about our initiatives in the area of the natural refrigerant air to water. On the 3rd of October, we made announcement at Interclima. In May 2023, we plan to launch R290 product as a first Japanese manufacturer. In 2025, we will expand the lineup of R290 so that the customers can choose the natural refrigerant. We would also plan for the products that is suitable for Europe, so that can be supported by the customers. For example, the energy saving, noise reduction, design, which you see on this slide and also the product that copes with low outside temperature will be enhanced. On the right-hand side, we are showing you air-to-water business, the CAGR of 50% is the rate of the growth that we'd like to realize. And in 2020 -- 2030 rather, we would like to grow this into the continuous growing business. And let me now go into the details of this business on the following slide. As it was mentioned in the previous session, the enhancement of the water circulation or the chiller segment is what we are focused upon. Light commercial business and the chiller business, by working on those, we would like to fill in the missing pieces. Now as a hot water supply and heating systems, there are 2 major types, as you can see here. The bottom part shows that circulating the refrigerants such as CFC to cool and heat this building. So more specifically, this is almost like a residential air conditioner and the commercial air conditioner. The top part shows the heat of the refrigerant will be conveyed to the water and the water would circulate in the building to indirectly heat and cool buildings. So specifically, this is the air-to-water in Europe and the commercial chiller. And actually, this uses a very limited number of the CFC. And in Europe, they use the boiler to heat up the water to heat the space. So this is a very common method and are very close to the method that they have in Europe. So we can actually contribute to the environment and also expand into the light commercial segment. So we will be working on the enhancement of hot water supply and heating business. As you can see in blue, this also means to provide a new value by replacing the combustion-type system. So in order to realize that, we need the chiller technology. So for this, this is one of the missing pieces. So we'll be filling this piece. And we will try to get the technology for the commercial area and combine it with our strength in the housing market to offer value. So together with the water circulation method, we would enhance the solutions linked with air quality technologies such as ventilation to reduce CO2 emissions and to expand the business and by promoting the low GWP and energy saving. So once again, together with the water circulation method, we would enhance the solutions linked to the air quality technology, such as ventilation to reduce CO2 emissions and to expand our businesses. So now I'd like to explain about M&A that was announced recently, but it's the air conditioning business acquisition from Systemair. As I explained earlier, one of the missing pieces is the commercial chiller business. So in order to fill this piece, we are having this M&A. The Systemair is headquartered in Sweden, and it provides the commercial ventilation air-conditioning. And we have been working together since 2019. Enhancing the commercial chiller business from that perspective, this M&A, the scope is shown on the right-hand side. We are acquiring the air conditioning business from Systemair, and we'll be obtaining 100% shares of the air conditioning business system from Systemair. So this describes the value of air conditioning business of Systemair , starting from the left-hand side, as a commercial air-conditioning technology chiller as well as the indoor terminals fan coil units. As you see on the right-hand side, they have a site for the R&D manufacturing and sales. And the EUR 63 million is the business sales and the size of it. And we will be able to have this business. And speedy enhancement of the conditioning system, and also, we would like to merge our business foundation with their foundation to enhance this business. So that we can grow the water circulation business in the nonhousing area. We believe that we can grow this. Now expected synergy is shown here in strengthening the environmental technology to work on the product capacity for developing the commercial air- conditioning together with the inverter technology. So by adding our inverter technology to their commercial air conditioning technology, we will be able to realize more efficient products. And we would also work on the strengthening of the R290 efforts. As for the development of the hot water supply and heating system, we will combine the water circulation as well as air-to-water for housing to create new values. On the right-hand side, we are showing the strengthening of the customer touch point. As I said, we will develop the circular business, enhancing the utilization of the IT and cloud. The bottom right shows the operational reform, we need to enhance the procurement, which can be expected. And the Systemair has a strong procurement in Europe. So by using our global procurement system, we believe that we can generate synergy. Also, with Systemair in the area of the air quality such as ventilation, we would actively promote the collaboration. As of now, we can only talk about qualitative synergy. But in the future, we will work on the quantitative collaboration, and we will be able to talk about this quantitative side in the near future. So next, let me summarize the initiatives to boost the value going forward. So here, we are showing the room air conditioning. On the left-hand side, which is shown in blue framework, this is the area that we want to strengthen development by newly established R&D base. So this includes the water circulation system and internal terminals and use of the Ziaino and the nanoe, the water purification technology and also the coordination control of them. On the right-hand side, what is shown in the light red framework is the initiatives in collaboration with the partners. Air handling unit and ERV, those are the areas that we want to enhance. The overlapping area is where we will be focusing upon. So combining that would -- sorry, that air purification technology with the ventilation and air-conditioning and ERV and the coordinated control is the area that we want to enhance. So on this side, as you can see at the bottom left, we will be enhancing our resources so that we can develop the solutions combining the water circulation and others. And with the partners, we would work on the combination of the air quality technology, air handling and also the indoor terminals. Through the enhanced collaboration, we'll continue to provide 3 values in indoor environment. So this is my last slide. So HVAC midterm target is what I'd like to talk about now. As you can see on this slide, in the previous IR, I mentioned that JPY 1 trillion in sales, EBITDA of 10% are the targets for FY '26. And more recently at the Interclima, we talked about the European business and achieving the CAGR of 25% in -- by FY '26 and growing this business to JPY 200 billion. As you can see in the pie chart, in FY '26, the percentage of the water circulation business will be increasing in Europe and the European business as a whole, as a strategic investment. By '26, in addition to 100 million -- sorry, EUR 100 million for the Systemair business acquisition, we'll be investing JPY 50 billion to enhance air-to-water business. And in addition to enhancing the European business. And by achieving that, we'd like to achieve the JPY 1 trillion sales and EBITDA of 10% for FY '26 earlier than our plan. Try to look at the synergy effect of M&A and find out how quickly we can achieve those targets and include that into our business plan for the next fiscal year. And with that, I'd like to end my presentation. Thank you for your attention.
Unknown Attendee
attendeeWe would like to start the Q&A session. Please hold on for a few minutes. We would like to prepare ourselves.
Unknown Attendee
attendeeThe Q&A session will be led by President Michiura and Mr. Ishihara and Mr. Murata, the CFO. We will now take questions from the audience. Questions will be accepted both at the venue and online.
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] We will not be able to entertain the questions in English.
Unknown Executive
executive[Interpreted] We will not be able to entertain the questions from the English channel. BofA Securities. Mr. Hirakawa, please?
Mikio Hirakawa
analystThis is Hirakawa of BofA Securities. This is about air-to-water. And so this business is going to grow, but I would like to know the current share in Europe and the competitors and the strength compared to your competitors. That's one question. And second question. You're going to be increasing sales from hereafter. But how much are you having the production? And how is it going to be growing in the future? Because Daikin and heat pump, this -- they already have a plan in order to increase the unit to 1 million units. So compared to that, how are you going to be planning?
Unknown Executive
executiveThank you very much for your question. Regarding the shares within the market, I don't have a data with me. Therefore, I will refrain from commenting on this. And regarding the competitors, the heat pump, growth is what we intend to do. Therefore, our main competitors will be the Japanese-related companies. And our strength compared to our competitors where we can win over them is, of course, we are going to be competing on efficiencies and what is the refrigerant strategy. In the Japanese companies, one of the first companies, the GWP almost 0 was we have been adopting. And this is the heating with air and water. And within the European area where the climate temperature is low, compared to other competitors' products, we have a very strong strength where we are effectively working with our product. Other than that, we can have the remote control using IoTs over our product. So by expanding the business, we can differentiate ourselves and clearly distinguish ourselves. And regarding the production scale, 150,000 units is for FY '22. That was the actual result for our company. And in mid to long term, we would like to bring it over to 1 million unit. And you have questions on Czech. No, it was Europe. And so the production is going to be aiming for 1 million unit. And the destination mainly will be in Europe. So I would like you to understand our thoughts. Thank you very much on that.
Unknown Attendee
attendeeWe are taking next question is Ezawa from Citi Group.
Kota Ezawa
analystEzawa from Citi Group Securities. My first question -- which page was it? The growing sales you achieved a higher growth. Air-to-water Europe has grown 2.3x. So air-to-water, 2.3x. And on the other hand, there is another growth that you achieved. So I try to calculate this. So excluding ForEx, about 20% sales increase or higher. So is this due to the market expansion? Or is it a higher market share for you or higher unit price? Could you talk about that? And air-to-water is growing. So in Europe, the business as a whole, what is happening? That's something that I'd like to know. That's my first question. The second question. So this fiscal year EBITDA plan of JPY 40 billion, I think is unchanged. So the worsening economies and inflation and the economic forecast in Europe, probably you have a different forecast. So is there any difference of the breakdown of the JPY 40 billion? And for the next fiscal year, it's JPY 40 billion for this fiscal year, but the worsening economy, how do you see that happening and impact in the next fiscal year?
Unknown Executive
executiveThe first question. As you said correctly, air-to-water business is growing in Europe. So one is the residential air conditioners. Until now, as an area that did not require the air conditioning because of the global warming during the summer, cooling is necessary or air conditioning is necessary. So as a market, for us, it's a tailwind. So air-to-water -- led by air-to-water, we have other products and all of them are growing in Europe. That is the correct understanding of the market. As for the market share, as I said earlier, we cannot really share that information. The second question about EBITDA. So for this fiscal year, yes, JPY 40 billion level. Towards that, we would like to make sure that we move forward. At the end of the first half, there is no issue with the progress so we are doing well. So towards the second half, we would enhance our efforts. The inflation and the worsening economy, some negative news are coming in, but especially in Europe, the issue of the Ukraine is one of the issues. And despite that, we expect that steady growth. If you look at the global market, the -- in all the regions, we think that this continues to grow, especially in Asia as well in China. So for the full year, we believe that we can realize the steady growth. One thing that could become our risk is China because the real estate market is worsening according to the mass media. So in China, we need to look at this more conservatively. But as a whole, HVAC as a whole, in the European region, we can offset. And we would like to continue to make efforts so that we can achieve the overall target.
Kota Ezawa
analystAdditional follow-up question. So basically, as an HVAC company, Europe is expanding as a market, and that is the driver for your business. And you're not talking about the market, but that's the general trend. Yes, your understanding is correct. If you look at each area, the biggest engine is Europe.
Unknown Attendee
attendeeWe would like to entertain a Q&A from the floor and then shift over to online questionnaires. Morgan Stanley Securities, please.
Masahiro Ono
analystThis is Ono from Morgan Stanley. So I have one big question. So you said you're expanding into the light commercial area and you have been acquiring Systemair and you are having the missing piece now at hand that you have been mentioning. So at this point, have you filled the missing point already fully? Or else are you going to be needing to fill out some more? That's one thing. And in conjunction, I would like to know about the share and the quantity. If you have some target line, is it going to be increasing little by little? And if so, what should be the risks in order to meet the target, please?
Unknown Executive
executiveThank you very much on that. So we are shifting over and expanding into the light commercial businesses. That is why we have been acquiring Systemair's factory. And the heat source is now satisfied for the target customers. I think we really feel about that at hand and the chiller and not only the air conditioner. The air-to-water, this is about the midsize scale. And regarding this merger and acquisition this time, now we are able to respond to it with speed. Those areas are what we are benefiting from this merger and acquisition. And regarding the share that you have questioned, I would like you to calculate. So the air-to-water that we intend to grow for the midterm plan for about 1.8x the growth and accompany that, the profit -- and profit will be growing. And thanks to the conditions right now, we are now ensuring a certain level of profit. And going forward, we are now heading for the red ocean of the market is heading for the red ocean. And we will have some level of some price competition, and the competition as well factored in. The material explains it too but we are going to be locally producing and using and consuming it locally. So that is the basis philosophy of the midterm plan and creating the cash flow could be highly expected. Therefore, more than what we have had, the sales will be higher, and we can have -- and more growth is what we are ensuring. And so by unit, the product competition prices will be fiercer but that is the condition that we are in.
Unknown Executive
executiveNow we are taking a question from remote participants, [ Kawajima-san ] of Sankei Shimbun.
Unknown Attendee
attendee[ Kawajima ] from Sankei Shimbun. Yes, during the presentation, F-Gases regulation, Kigali revision was mentioned. So together with that, this time, the R290, the natural refrigerant, new air-to-water product was announced. So for the future, the volume of the product, R290, the natural refrigerant, do you think that the number of the products would increase and it will become the mainstream and we'd be able to make it before the time of the regulation? That's one question that I have. The second is that the Kigali revision that would impact Japan. So in Japan, the product with the natural refrigerant, what is the need of it? And what is the prospect of it?
Unknown Executive
executiveThank you. About the natural refrigerant, yes, Kigali revision and F-Gas regulations, according to those revisions, we will be developing our businesses. So to do so, the various refrigerants, right now, we are working on the R&D of them. But this time, in a sense, in the short term, when we consider the development of it, it's -- we needed to make a decision quickly in the short term. So multiple refrigerant development is going on. So R290 is close to the commercialization, and that was the decision that we made. So from air to water, we decided to use this. So in air to water, the Kigali revision, we have been proactive, and we will be launching the products in advance of the regulation, so the regular refrigerant circulating, the regular refrigerant for the air conditioning. And we would also try to lower the GWP. And the new refrigerant for that is something that we are working on. So Kigali revision, by the time of the deadline of the Kigali revision, we will be also launching the low GWP products. That's what I wanted to communicate to you. And also, recycling, of course, the recycling of the refrigerant is something that we have to do. But as for R290, I think that the recycling is one of the major challenges. So including the partners, we will face this issue and work on the business expansion. As for Japan, Kigali revision basically is international. Well, together with the international regulation, reducing the volume of the refrigerant is something that we need to work on. So according to the changes of the regulation, we will be -- we have no choice but to promote our businesses based on such changes of the regulations. Thank you.
Unknown Executive
executiveAnd we would like to entertain questions from the remote personnel, JPMorgan, Ayada-san.
Junya Ayada
analystThis is Ayada from JPMorgan Securities. I have 2 questions. First one, this is about the EBITDA margin for the HVAC. It was 5% before, and you're raising it up to 10% or more. And when -- from the OP margin, the next term will be 3%. And for other competitors, they have double-digit growth, and even the smaller companies have a 5%. And so regarding that, the margin, I would like to know where your margin comes from. And if possible, I would like you to explain it by locations, the regions. And then within the next 3 years, how is it going to be moving is my interest. My second question would be for air to water. The sales system or -- is it going to be using the agents? Or are you going to be selling it direct? That is what I want to confirm. And when you talk about Europe, I think the share of the market in Europe by country will be very different. Therefore, I would like to know where you are stronger there? And are you focusing to grow in that area where you are strong in? Or else are you expanding in the European market? And at that time, I would like to know the system for sales.
Unknown Executive
executiveThank you very much for your question. Regarding the EBITDA, compared to our competitor currently, I thought -- we do not believe that we are very high. And we have various reasons and backgrounds for this. The air conditioning business, especially the room conditioners, were the mainstay of us. And going forward, the commercial air cooling system is to be expanded. So it is like this as it is currently, and it was so 2, 3 years. And we have been putting in the investment beforehand in a large amount. Even if we go into the market with room conditioners with the partnerships company and the competitors, I think we're just half of what we have as a strategy. Therefore, well, Mr. Ishihara is intending to strengthen the commercial. So at last, including Asia market, the commercial air conditioning is now growing to a certain level of scale going forward. The commercial cooling unit, coolers, based on the profit, we would like to reinvest again and to create a good cycling -- the virtual cycling system. And later on, I think Mr. Murata will be sharing his opinion. And about the margin profitability for the reasons is what you have been questioning. At this point, with the product category, this is commercial cooling development, we have been using costs. And looking at geology of our competitors, the largest competitors, the Chinese area, the -- we are still using the room air conditioners as a mainstay. Therefore, profit-wise, we are tough. And so right now, our European business is the engine of profit right now for us. And as mentioned, the commercial air conditioner and the combination with the air quality, China and the focal areas that we have been seeing, that's Europe and North America included, we would like to increase our profitability and the margin. And until 2025 or FY '26, sales will be driven by mainly Europe. And it's about the sales I would like to explain. By countries, it could be sold directly or else, we would be using agency. This comes from the historical reasons. And according to the countries, the culture will be different. Therefore, we are responding respectively for each of the market. And the question was where we are very strong in, first of all. And as the President already mentioned, our sales, our strong point is that even within the low temperature area, our room conditioners are not going to be reducing the temperature. Therefore, that's a strength. Therefore, we do understand that we have a very high share and we are strong within the Nordic area or the Scandinavian area. And the mid-Europe, the air to water was not coming in soon. However, as of the first half result, we have been growing 2.3x within the market, where it was considered that the market growth was about 1.5x. And the large part is the Germany, too. The Japanese market is having -- Japanese companies are struggling within the area. And within the distribution, the Germany already has the boiling-related company, which is very strong within the market. And the Ukraine, Germany has been having many energy coming in from the Ukraine -- by Ukraine. Therefore, we would like to increase our shares by leveraging the conditions currently. Thank you very much.
Unknown Executive
executiveFor the Scandinavian countries, the remote control and by connecting to the cloud, we -- both we are providing businesses and services already. And we are now seeding and now reaping the result of the seed that we have planted. Therefore, that's a big market for us.
Unknown Executive
executiveThank you. We are running out of time, so we take one more online question. And then another question from the Tokyo Shiodome Building. [ Hatanaka-san ] of the Yomiuri Shimbun.
Unknown Attendee
attendee[ Hatanaka ] from Yomiuri Shimbun. I hope you can hear me.
Unknown Executive
executiveYes.
Unknown Attendee
attendeeI have 2 questions. About the M&A, the way we're thinking, I think that the Systemair and light commercial probably is going to be the key. So which layer is that? What is the strategy? That's my first question. And the second question is a basic question probably, if I may. So air to water, this JPY 50 billion investment, so after April, you mentioned that the -- some growing areas. Is it part of the JPY 400 billion that you mentioned? Or as HVAC, is this the decision that you made? Is this unique to the HVAC company, the JPY 50 billion? Does it come from your cash flow? Could you give us the -- where it comes from? Sorry, it's a basic question, I'm sure.
Unknown Executive
executiveThank you. So for the first question, M&A way of thinking, as you mentioned, the missing part is something that we want to feel and complement. So from residential to light commercial, we want to expand into that. And what do we get from M&A? It's techs-based answer. We want to buy time. And in terms of function, technology or hardware, we want to make sure that we are very much focused and have a -- try to find candidates based on these targets that we have. And second is the JPY 50 billion investment. So yes, JPY 400 billion from holding and Panasonic Corporation, JPY 300 billion strategic investments. So as for JPY 50 billion that I talked about, as Mr. Shinada talked about, this is the new Panasonic Corporation. It is linked to the JPY 300 billion. So within JPY 300 billion, this JPY 50 billion is included. And as HVAC, the money that we earn is what we invest. So that's how we look at this investment.
Unknown Executive
executiveIf I may add to that, to your first question, you talked about the M&A and the enhancement of the light commercial. And where specifically on Page 4, as Mr. Michiura was referring to, I think he referred to this, the light commercial is what we are working on. And our strength that Ziaino and nanoe, including Japan and the Asia, at hotels, they are very highly valued. So the light commercial of up to 5,000 square meters, like 100 rooms, the hotels and the hospitals and clinics, small-scale clinics, they use our air quality technology. And it's well accepted. We already have that achievement. So when we achieve -- target that, what are the missing part? So in order to get there, what will be the shortest way to get there? So that's how we would look at it.
Unknown Executive
executiveNow we would like to entertain our last question from the floor. Nakane-san of Mizuho Securities, please.
Yasuo Nakane
analystThis is Nakane from Mizuho Securities. I have 2 questions. One is about air to water in the North America. So how do you view North America? What are you going to be doing within that area? The other one is about Europe. You said that the rival companies are Japanese companies. However, the [ GE ] from South Korea is doing great effort. And my concern personally is within the mid to long run, other Chinese companies may come in as a form of OEM, coupling with the local boiler company. So how do you view that? And on the opposite of sales, service, you have to be creating that and establish that in speed. So I would like to know these issues, please.
Unknown Executive
executiveThank you very much for your question. So your question is the extension of the other question. Regarding North America, our assumption in the next mid- to long -- midterm plan, following the Europe trend, air to water and the heat pump will be rolled out, and it's going to be replaced by gas. That is our assumption. But currently, within part of the America, there are some areas moving proactively and quickly before -- compared to other regions. Therefore, now we are entering in Phase 2 and have a study. And from Europe, we can send the products to -- from Europe, and we will coordinate with Systemair. Therefore, I think we can respond to the North American movement. So the strategy is that we would like to look in closely with the movement of North America and launch. And the European competition other than the Japanese companies, it is just as you see. The South Korean companies will be entering. That is our assumption, too. Having said that, the proprietary strength that we have will be leveraged. With that, the refrigerant, we will be proactive in having a strategy. Therefore, we would like to solidify our base foundation. The supply chain network is -- so we will once again set a factory in Czech Republic. And so that's going to be our hub to have a strong supply network. That is the first thing that we will work on and change that into our advantage. That is all from my side.
Unknown Executive
executiveThe explanation of each company is concluded. Thank you very much.
Unknown Executive
executiveGood afternoon. Thank you very much for coming in spite of your busy schedule. Katayama will explain the business strategy of our company or CCS, I will be calling in short. First, business outline. CCS has 4 regions of business: North America, Japan, Oceania and Asia. We have 9 factories with 7,600 employees. In terms of market share, for showcase, we have global about 20% market share and a 15% global share of freezers. Business area is shown on the right-hand side. So the showcase for supermarkets and convenience stores, kitchen/beverage equipment such as industrial refrigerators and refrigeration and distribution equipment and service maintenance, these are the 3 business domains. Next, history. As you see -- you can see, the activities CCS Conduct started as Sanyo's business. In 2015, we acquired Hussmann Corporation and expanded it quickly. And in 2018, refrigeration business was transferred to CCD and started as CCS company. And in '22, the transfer of Asia and Oceania business was decided, and we have the organizational structure in place. As you can see in the graph on the right-hand side, after acquisition of Hussmann, sales has been increasing on 4.7% CAGR. And for the first time this year, we will exceed JPY 300 billion. As for the vision/mission, it is common to Panasonic. Vision is unique to divisional company. Currently, majority of the business is for food and distribution. Going forward, upstream and downstream will be covered and worthy of the cold solution. We should be -- we are to be recognized as a most customer-focused solutions provider to the cold chain. So we have the vision only in English. Now market structure will be explained. Cold chain industry, in addition to food distribution, we have warehouse and low temperature distribution. Wide data shows that because 2 years anomalies based upon calendar year '19, before COVID-19, as you can see on the left-hand side, in calendar year '19, JPY 4.4 trillion was market size. Up until '29, CAGR, a bit less than 3% stable growth is expected. Right-hand side shows the structure of the market by region. North America and Europe, Japan and Asia and others are evenly composed, showcased. Refrigerating machine and kitchen equipment account for 70%. Downstream market accounts the other. In the cold chain business, the majority of the business comes from further retailing industry. Therefore, here, I would like to look at the market of the food retailing industry. The largest customer is retail industry, as you can see in the bar graph on the left-hand side. In Japan, JPY 30 trillion, and in the United States, exceeding JPY 100 trillion and a large market. Steadily, the market is growing and evolving, and more demand is supporting our business. In the growth business in Japan, drug store market is prominent. As you can see in the right top, the high growth rate exceeding retail industry is shown, and the ratio of food sales is increasing over the past several years and reached 30% of the total. So for food retail industry, this is an area which supports growth. Specific products, we have showcased -- we are delivering showcase. And the most recent situation, the first half, based upon that, on the right-hand bottom, you can see. In Japan, convenience industry is slightly sluggish, and drugstore and supermarkets are bullish. And in U.S., dollar stores is growing and local and national supermarkets are steadily growing. Next, about the competition of the food retailing industry. On the left-hand side, you can see the comparison, the sales. Globally, the competitor is competitive. Other than Japanese companies, a few are listed, and we are estimating some of these numbers. There are a number of players with more than JPY 100 billion. And in FY '23, we are the largest company. However, the profitability of the peers in Japan, we are -- compared to them, we are slightly inferior. And starting from April, as one divisional company of Panasonic Corporation, we started. So not only in size, scale, but we would like to focus upon improving profitability. Still, we are not sufficient. But as you can see on the right-hand side, July-September quarter profitability, EBITDA margin improved by slightly less than 5%. And 30% high number was achieved. Growth and the profitability improvement was realized, and the gap was -- is being reduced. And the first half results shows the current situation. Sales increased by 29% to JPY 168.7 billion. Showcase and service parts supported the increase in revenue. And refrigerators and the kitchen equipment increased significantly. JPY 9.7 billion in EBITDA, reaching close to JPY 10 billion. Margin is 5.8%, exceeding 6% in the second quarter. For the first half, because of material price increase, there was JPY 4.5 billion minus, but offset by JPY 5.3 billion and JPY 2.9 billion increased sales. And this contributed to increased revenue. Now from now on, I would like to look at the medium term and see medium- to long-term strategy of CCS company. CCS company needs to address social issues, as listed, 3 areas: one, low environmental impact; two, labor shortage; and third, food loss reduction. We make contribution to these 3 social issues. Here, specifically for 3 issues, how this brings about changes in the business environment? Number one, low environmental impact. In the food retail, the refrigerants, we are using mostly alternative CFC. With the change in regulations, the strength in the regulation results in significant reduction in CFC. By 2029, it has to be reduced to less than 60%, R448 exceeding 1,000. So natural refrigerant, we need to convert. And R744 CO2, conversion to CO2 is the largest thing. Next, number two, labor shortage. High engineering capabilities required in this industry. And more than the usual labor market, there is a shortage -- severe shortage of labor. In the United States, over the past 1 year, the shortage is increasing by more than 5 percentage points. In Japan, effective job offer rate is exceeding 4x. In order to -- we need to address this. Otherwise, we may cause a negative impact for the customers in business. And lastly, food loss reduction. As you can see in the chart at the top, in Japan, more than 5 million tons of food loss. The customer industry are faced with the food loss problem. Also, in the United States, after COVID-19, EC -- grocery EC is progressing. The theme of food loss, not only existing distribution but various cold chain solutions, are called for, and we need to respond to these challenges.
Eiichi Katayama;Panasonic Holdings Corporation;Executive Vice President
executiveSo for the 3 topics, I would like to introduce our countermeasures one by one. First of all, regarding the low environmental impact, on the left-hand side, it has the market size of the CO2 freezer. But currently, for the stores that are the mainstay, we would like to expand in all areas for -- especially within the midsized expansion is what we focus. By regions, this is Europe, Japan and North America. There, the regulations are there. However, we are assuming that there is going to be a driver of growth. It is going to be double of the current size in the future. And the CO2 refrigerator, we would like to become a top company with our countermeasures. Our strength is written on the right-hand side. First of all, this is energy saving and downsizing of chillers. This is the 2-stage compression type compressor that we have been using for a long time. Second, we have a high MIF share. MIF stands for machine in the field, and we have the installation and maintenance know-how. And number four, wide range of product lineup. Currently, the bottleneck is the product pricing is high. However, leveraging on our strength, we would like to expand to our target number of sales in order to drive our sales and expansion within the market. Next, how we countermeasure the labor shortage. We are supported by the engineers, valuable engineers and with our ongoing services and maintenance. In summer, we have the explosive number of demands, and we have to be covering the shortage of labor. In order to compromise -- in order not to compromise that, we are working on digitalization. In U.S. Hussmann, that's StoreConnect. And S-cubo is the solution serviced by Japan. And that is leveraging the IoT solutions work that is shown on the bottom chart. The IoT connect in the U.S. is now starting to be supported by U.S. customers. The people are acknowledging the strength of the StoreConnect. Hussmann is reducing the generator, and our cost is declining. Therefore, they are contributing to our profit. And Japan's S-cubo is also doing the same, too. We are aiming for becoming the platform within the global front. The other topic is about ensuring the human resources in Hussmann. Hussmann has the work on development of workers by using TechX, and TechX is supporting many of the labor shortage at Hussmann. For ensuring constant labor, this is meaningful. We, in Japan, would like to introduce this in Japan, too, in order to provide service with a stable amount of labor. Last is countermeasures on reduction of food loss. This is going to be a long topic, and we have to keep on working on it. But we have to be making our differentiation in order to appeal to the users. We are developing on it. The master pot is quick and easy creation of retort packages with master's packed technique, taste and recipe. The food loss reduction in defrost cooler can realize high-quality thawing by highly controlled temperature. And now the national companies are introducing this. The EC support is done by smart rocker. It can be adaptable for 3 temperature zones: freezing, cold storage and normal temperature. It is going to be linking up with the users and the end users. The distribution of these products are not that big right now. However, these services are very unique to us. Therefore, with the comprehensive recommendations from ourselves, we would like to start keeping our sales. For the strategies that we are now working on in order to solve the problem of the society, in order to make ourselves profitable, we must reflect on the past and future business operations regarding CCS. The reflection is shown on the left-hand side. We have 3. First one was lack of investment in facilities and IT. Second was many times of organizational and strategic changes. The third was lack of synergy creation in acquisition of Hussmann. In the time of Sanyo Electric, we were able to secure by the products with the top share, and Hussmann was like that as well. But before coming into our group company, we were lacking investment in facilities and IT, which was a serious issue. Currently, therefore, we are now trying to shore up ourselves. In Hussmann, Hussmann is going to be upgrading their system next year. In the organizational changes within Japan, it has been changing every year. And Hussmann, too, has been changing their organizations 3 times after the merger and acquisition. After all these changes, we are going to be stable and to make a profitable path for us. After the merger and acquisition, it is not -- so first of all, directly, we were focusing the Hussmann to sell the product of Panasonic. But now at this point, we are now going to be the supporter of Hussmann and to have Hussmann lead their way. So based on the reflection of the past, we would like to connect together with various regions in order for us to make ourselves profitable. As a key point for expanding, our global value is that we would like -- we have to be connecting together in various regions. Right-hand side has the catalysts that is going to be connecting the world. The CO2 refrigerant brought over to U.S., we have not been able to do this for 6 years. But this year, after the divisional company, it has been realized, not taking 1 year. And from here, Japan and U.S., they are going to be contributing very much to the expansion of CCS. The CCS will be also working for the software digital expansion. And for the global expansion in the kitchen equipment, that's in Asia, Japan and Oceania. And the other thing is about the coordination with the CCS. We are going to be working together, customer axis linkage with HVAC and EW, the Electric Works. We are going to be deepening our coordination. Electric Works are also going to be working in coordination for Japan. And in India, their success -- we are successful. We are now asking the help from the Electric Works in that area, too. And LAS has various products that could be used. Therefore, we are preparing with the technical cooperation to exchange human talent with both companies. These are going to be done globally. And for the strategy for the long term, it is very crucial for us to connect together with each other and with other companies. From here on, these are going to be about the numbers. So the EBITDA for FY '22 was JPY 102 million. However, we are thinking about 106 -- sorry, JPY 146 million for FY '23. And the scenario for expanding the sales and profit is not changed. The demand side is going to be slow. Therefore, our forecast is going to be a very conservative one. However, we have been growing for the full year. Our challenge target for the FY 2023 will be JPY 170 million to JPY 200 million. And now for the FY 2025 KGI target. It used to be JPY 23 billion EBITDA, and the cash flow is JPY 29 billion with what we target. In the past, we have been changing operation. Therefore, fluctuation has been shown. However, in the 3 years, we would like to surely ensure JPY 23 billion EBITDA. At the IR day, Mr. Shinada has been explaining, and this number excludes the number coming from the China business. Therefore, I would like you to understand that IT is not overlapping. The ROI. Maybe you might think ROIC will be lower. However, with the merger and acquisition of Hussmann, the goodwill appreciation is showing. The effect is what we assume that to be exerted in the long run, therefore, the fundamental ROIC compared to other competitors, we would like to control it so it will not be inferior to our competitors. And right now, there are works that are in the U.S. which is a burden, which is coming from the shortage of material. Therefore, the inventory is staying at the U.S. The customer is having difficulties with human labor. And therefore, the deliveries want -- the customer wants delivery to be late. However, these are going to be all inventories covered by the back quarter. Therefore, we do not think that is the risk. For the working products, EBITDA is going to be increased and improved largely. Within this page, this is the outlook for the 2025 KGI targets. In the case of CCS, the dollar-yen impact is very large. Currently, at the ForEx assumption, if we use that currently, it is not convincing. Therefore, the divisional company, we have an outlook. So let's say that the JPY 140 to dollar is expanding, then it is going to be JPY 340 billion to JPY 360 billion on sales. So the CAGR, 2%, at least will be something that we would like to assume. And the contribution for the increase of the EBITDA is shown by factors on the right-hand side. The CO2 demand is going to be driving these sales, and EBITDA until FY 2023 was able to cover by material cost and pricing. However, there's going to be a fixed cost where we cannot cover. Therefore, we will be covering that up in -- by the sales increase. In FY 2023, we would like to bring the EBITDA margin at least 8% or more. The CO2 rate is going to be increased by sales and improvement in manufacturing productivity, innovations of IT and operations and increased sales of highly profitable products. We would like to be able to achieve this target as soon as possible. For the Panasonic Group, the B2B2C contributions, we will be contributing to the B2B2C in food business area as CCS. And we will be leading the way for the environmental countermeasures. And through our work, we will be contributing. Lastly, let me share the executive summary. We will be connecting the world and building a solid foundation for enhancing the competitiveness of cold chain businesses; leveraging the strength of CO2 freezers to become one of the world's leading environmental companies; three, take advantage of high MIF, grow service to a pillar of business through expanding digital solutions; fourth, strengthen the kitchen business as a company that responds to food loss by strengthening differentiated products; five, achieving EBITDA of JPY 40 billion at an early stage at a rate exceeding the industry average. That is the key message from myself, and I would like to conclude my explanation. Thank you very much.
Unknown Executive
executiveNow we would like to open the floor for Q&A. Would you kindly wait until the stage is reset? Responding to your question is Mr. Katayama, President; and Mr. [ Kawano ], Executive Vice President; and Mr. [ Tominaga ], Executive Vice President. Now we'd like to entertain questions we received. We are not able to receive questions from the English channel. We will not be able to entertain questions from the English channel. Now I'd like to open the floor for a question from the floor. Hirakawa from BofA Securities, please.
Mikio Hirakawa
analystHirakawa from BofA Securities. My first question, global share, 20% for showcase and 10% for freezers or refrigerating products. North America, Europe and Japan, what will be the breakdown? And the profitability for each region, can you please explain? That's my first question. My second question is about the future of the CO2 refrigerant business. In -- the freezer business market share will be how much? And in '21 and '22, the view of the market growth, what is the current progress? These are my 2 questions.
Unknown Executive
executiveThank you, Mr. Hirakawa. CO2 freezers -- but before that, showcase. In Europe, we are not doing at all in Europe. Frankly speaking, mid-20% market share is what I think. But the market share is much higher in the United States, and Japan, even higher. But Asia -- Oceania is high, the same level. But in Asia, because Chinese business, it's not in the business domain of ours. So Europe and other areas on a weighted average, this is lower. The profitability by region, I would like to refrain from speaking. But for your reference, the improvement of profit in the first half, half improvement comes from Japan and 40% from U.S. and 10% from other Asia. So in this way, we are improving the profit. With regards to CO2-related market, frankly speaking, there aren't much data. What we can say clearly is in the Japanese market for stores, we have 70% to 80% market share. In Europe, also, the largest market for stores, we belong to the top 3. In the United States, still, the market for stores is not taking off. Rack market is the majority. And here, Hussmann itself is going to do this by themselves. They are already doing it. Our strength is small and medium-sized, as explained in the presentation. 6 years after acquisition, we are not able to realize, but the Japanese design is at last brought to the United States. So significant improvement can be expected in the next 5 years. And sorry that this is rather abstract explanation. I hope this answers your question.
Unknown Executive
executiveNext question from Goldman Sachs Securities, Harada-san, please.
ハラダ
analystThis is Harada from Goldman Sachs Securities. I have 2 questions. And one is, so the sales growth, the cold chain industry, the growth is around 3% is your assumption into that. The CO2 freezers is going to be -- is starting to compete. So your product, including the upper stream and the lower stream, you have various coverage. Therefore, the sales growth is around 2%. Is that the correct understanding? That's my first question. And if my assumption is correct, for the improvement, you should be improving the margin. And on Page 15 and Page 17, you have a step chart. And regarding the pricing, pricing strategy is about -- so when a product or the price is beyond the material cost, therefore, is it coming out from the improvement of the practice within the market industry? So I would like you to explain on the pricings, too.
Unknown Executive
executiveThank you very much, Harada-san. For the first point, this is about the market growth. For heading 2024 healthy base, we have been saying that it is 2%. That is why you questioned me as such. As Mr. Michiura mentioned, and here, I've been receiving the likewise question, we are running business in the U.S. So the FRB continuing interest rate hike is near -- to destroy the near double-digit inflation. Therefore, honestly speaking, we have a very big sets of crisis, meaning that the stance is that interest rate is improved or hiked until some changes will be seen. So because of our concern, that is why we said 2%. And I'm sorry that it is not linked directly to the market itself. And for the other question, the increase of sales in July was there. And our company, within the Japanese company, we had a high profit compared to other competitors in Japan. And the global companies in Japan, they have a higher ratio in overseas. Therefore, we have high rate, too. But with global and Japan, we both that. We have high growth rate even in both areas. So the second question, you said -- mentioned -- you were mentioning about the practice for the market. It should be changed or not. But this is not something that is unique to us. But the current condition is about the result coming from the activity to raise our product price connected with the movement of the market. Please understand like that. In FY 2025, it's a profit increase. You might think that we can no longer hike the price after one cycle has gone and finished. However, according to the geology, region, I don't think the breadth of price hike is not that different by countries or regions. And the productivity improvement at factory and there's the improvement of productivity for IoT, if this is taking on full length, this is area that we can put in our efforts by ourselves and make differences. So far, we were not able to battle within the markets fully. But we have put in full strength in order to come into the market. And from here after, we are already within the market. Therefore, we're going to be making great efforts in-house in order to compete with other competitors. So IT and the division of works at the plant will be changed, which will probably improve our effectivity by several percent.
Unknown Executive
executiveMoving on to the next question, Ezawa-san from Citi Global Markets.
Kota Ezawa
analystEzawa from Citi Global Markets. About Hussmann, I am very interested. In your presentation, you touched upon this already. But once again, how much it didn't go well? I think it was back in 2015 that you acquired the company. Hussmann and Panasonic integration, between the two, as a final assessment, at this point in time, how to look at the integration of Hussmann into Panasonic? And at this point, where you have the good integration and where it is not going well? And what are the challenges, if you can comment on the outcome of the integration of Hussmann? As I listen to you, large room for improvement of the company right here. So whether or not the integration of Hussman will go ahead, how low hanging fruit it is? And how much can we expect from integration of Hussmann.
Unknown Executive
executiveThank you, Ezawa for your questions. Before we acquired the company, a fund was holding Hussman. And before that, it was under HVAC company. and then we came under the umbrella of Panasonic. And originally, synergy with HVAC was at the forefront. And then our capabilities -- enhancements capabilities, and there was a mismatch in the capabilities of the two companies. This is a stark fact. Having said that, however, the current -- so the competitiveness of service installed business of Hussmann in North America is a very competitive business unit. Back then, they did not have sufficient line up to show good results. But as the [indiscernible] explained, air-to-water, the development in North America. And as Hussmann, it's possible to collaborate with HVAC. Now if you only look at the Cold Chain vis–à–vis CO2, the evolution in North America, we have high expectations from the beginning. But because of huts in Japan, 50, 60 hut in Europe and North America, different huts. And in terms of market size, Europe used to be larger, so we gave priority -- placed the priority to Europe. And in the United States, there wasn't much need for store installation. Therefore, we are putting that in the back burner. In addition, the transfer of technology -- unless you have many engineers with fluent English capabilities. So realizing both in the United States and Europe, there were constraints. Now [ Ezawa-san ] asked about how much room for improvement? I explained in my presentation earlier as well. In Hussman, there are many strengths. More than -- history even more than Panasonic. We should accurately understand the strengths and whatever we can copy, we will. With that stance, we support their growth. That's basic thinking. Of course, the excellent management capabilities in Japan for CO2 and know-how in factories, we have advantage over them in these areas. So in the management committee of the divisional companies, there's no room for discussion other than about food retail distribution industry. So the speed of discussion and the depths of discussion is very different from in the past. I hope that this answers your question. Thank you.
Operator
operatorNow we would like to entertain questions from the participants online. [Operator Instructions]. We are not going to be entertaining questions in this channel. So we were not able to confirm questions from online. Therefore, we are entertaining questions from the floor. SMBC Securities. Katsura-san, please.
Ryosuke Katsura
analystThis is Katsura from SMBC Securities. I think it was on the Page 16 and is 18 on the slide. And so you say that this number is excluding China, and you have come to the target number. So I would like to know what the back idea was. ROIC, it was low, but there were some impacts to this. And excluding the impact, you said that you're going to be aiming for something that is not inferior to other peer companies. And on Page 18, the EBITDA, JPY 400 billion margin is also stated too. Therefore, I think it's a conservative number. Within this IRD, maybe -- you might have a vision for the mid-term. So in order to achieve this on the way, if you have anything that you have planned, please share with us.
Unknown Executive
executiveStarting for the 16 -- Page 16, about JPY 23 billion was very simple. So this was just a simple calculation of, excluding China business. What's important for us is the mid-term number should be clarified and cleared in order for the investors to understand us, and we wanted to make this happen, so the investors will understand us clearly. And investment has been lacking, therefore, we were not able to fully exert our capability. But currently, now we are able to proactively move around. However, we have a fixed cost, and our organization has been reluctant about having fixed off, therefore -- but so first of all, we would like to achieve JPY 23 billion. So there is nothing plus that or minus that. And for the JPY 40 billion EBITDA, now we are the holding company, and now we're an operating system company. And the Cold Chain divisional company, the sales is about half of each pack. And until last year, the profit was like a situation that there is no meaning to disclose the numbers. And for Panasonic, whether or not we are able to win by disclosing the number, what's important for Panasonic, therefore, the food distribution industry. We thought it paramount that we are to come up with a strategy to win within the area that we are working. And so to the -- we are now coming to the profit rate of the average of the Panasonic companies. And having said that, I wanted to write JPY 50 billion. However, excluding the non-continuity, the scenario that I'm thinking, points out about JPY 40 billion will be appropriate and is able to calculate. That is how we came up with JPY 40 billion and the 8%. This is all related with the relation with the top line. I am conscious, first of all, within Panasonic Group, we wanted to first exert our presence. And within this area, the top line could grow more. Therefore, at least 8% was put. So this is a commitment that at least 8% could be or should be achieved. So rather than writing in 10%, I wanted to fulfill the number itself.
Operator
operator[indiscernible] from SBI Securities.
Unknown Analyst
analyst[indiscernible] from SBI Securities. Cold Chain business, the mix, sales mix on Page 1, you have -- you explained 4 items and the image is showcased it comes to the very front, not the stores about warehouses and transport logistics. In the Cold Chain, they're taking advantage of the technological capabilities of CCS and contribute to the society with the possible food loss -- food shortage in the future, you have lots to contribute. So where should we focus upon in looking at the CCS business? Any comments on that, please?
Unknown Executive
executiveI talk about the focus of CO2 market and medium-sized warehouse and large-sized products will grow. In Japan and Europe, all CO, the kind of small size to [ 410 ] horsepower CO2 refrigerators, freezers are the main. But going forward, for warehouse, CO2 conversion will progress significantly. In view of the life cycle -- life span of the warehouse, you have to convert to CO2 early. HFC-based or ammonia-based refrigerant are the main, but by 2025, we come up with large, once and convert, then that result in double investment. So warehouses will be easier for us to appeal to. So our CO2's capabilities are built for larger ones. And the question by [indiscernible], upstream area, warehouse is the area that we are focusing upon in our business. The medium logistics part, Yamato is using process transportation and refrigeration solution. We are doing that as a part of the large players. But still, it is not -- it doesn't have sufficient width in the United States. Micro fulfillment delivery market is very large. For example, there's one large supermarket and adjacent supermarket, gigantic warehouse is there. And for people who pick up automatically, more than 10,000 items can be automatically packed. Such business and warehouses are increasing in numbers. Here also, Hussmann is taking the lead and collaborating with other companies. We are developing and identifying such businesses. So currently, it is a food retailing industry, but as you have mentioned, if we can move into these areas, then in a different way, we'll be able to develop our business. But the key point here is warehouse business grows, therefore, we do warehouse. Because of the food loss, we offer a refrigeration solution, that is not the case. But business model matters, warehouse, if you build one, then for tens of years, you don't need a new one. So what kind of business model are we going to make if there's a food loss with the master part and others just selling the products will not be sufficient. We have to look at the business model. What kind of asset risks are we going to take? We have to evolve our business model. Otherwise, it doesn't need to the real business evolution of Cold Chain. The level is not that large yet, so we'd like to wait for a bit more. But as products -- we have products that will be very attractive and impressive. So volume will have to be increased a bit more before we are able to show it to the investors.
Operator
operatorNext question. Daiwa Securities. Sakae-san, please.
Satoshi Sakae
analystSakae from Daiwa Securities. I have one large question. The food industry distribution, the willingness to invest for your equipment, I would like to know how they're doing for the -- after COVID both in Japan and overseas. So there is the word -- keyword like saving energies. But going forward, how is the industry going to be changing? And in conjunction about these stores that you have been sharing with the mid-sized warehouse and the small warehouses indicated in Page 10, I think you have shared information before, but more than stores, I think this industry is having a tough demand because they are -- the customers are being stringent in making investment, don't you think so? So are you going to be compensating this and complementing this by having a new product or not?
Unknown Executive
executiveThank you very much for your question, Sakae-san, first, about the willingness of the investment from the customer side, I would like to focus on Japan and U.S. Regarding Japan, as you mentioned, in the last 2 years, labor production read has been focused. Therefore, a new equipment was bought by the customers and supermarkets. Supermarket has been making investment for refurbishment. Because energy cost becomes high, that is why customers are investing in energy-saving equipment. And by COVID-19, a showcase display has been increasing the demand. Therefore, investment has been done much within the showcase area. However, at this point of time, the energy cost has been too high, mainly for the showcase, display, the supermarket and the convenient market. The investment in those areas are starting to decline or becoming slow. That's the current reality. And for people, the dining sector. After the COVID-19 or when the COVID-19 came from, there were times that the restaurants and dining industries were suppressed so much. And currently, now they're having a very big appetite for investment. That's unchanged. And for the U.S., energy cost issues exist, but what I feel is that compared to Japan, I think they're much relaxed. Japan is much more hit, and sharply hit by the energy. Because America is changing so much in industry and at the large, shop is much in numbers, therefore, compared to Japan, there is no sign of slowing down. So honestly speaking, maybe things might slow down after December. However, the data that we are focusing right now, there is no sign that there is a slowdown indication currently at this point. Honestly speaking, we don't work for the kitchens for U.S. Therefore, that's what we can share right now. And regarding warehouses, warehouse industry or market, it depends on which area you focus on. Micro-fulfillment is happening in U.S. and the mid-sized storage globally is now increasing very much but limited to Japan is not that active, that is as you see. But having said that, there's regulations and CO2 conversion must be done, therefore, assumption is that we don't really think that the total demand of store warehouse is going to be improved. So the market is growing just because the conversion of the CO2, I would like you to understand as such. Thank you.
Unknown Executive
executiveThe time is running short, so I would like to entertain one last question. If you have any questions, please raise your hand. Okazaki-san from Nomura Securities, please.
Yu Okazaki
analystOkazaki from Nomura Securities. In the Cold Chain business, we are thinking about the M&A strategy. Upstream, you will be expanding to upstream EBITDA target excluding the unconnected or in EMEA. So are there any potential opportunities for M&A?
Unknown Executive
executiveWell, what area -- the answer would lead immediately to what we are going to do. So it is very difficult for me to say. In that sense, for areas, showcase kitchen, refrigerator and service, in all these areas, there is a potential possibility in the region, Japan, North America, Asia and Europe also. So I would say for all, in that phase on a zero-basis business unit and the divisional company, we are thinking of wait or buy. But we make ourselves or to acquire, we have to choose. We have to have an option. Can we do this organically or the business that we cannot do and that we acquire -- we acquire. So we look at all the opportunities, but the constraint of investment if the Panasonic Group's constraints are there, then what can we do to overcome that constraint? That's another story. But in the business unit or the division company, if we had to choose something, the organic investment and M&A are to be considered as parallel auctions. I hope that answers your question.
Unknown Executive
executiveSo with that, the Cold Chain Solutions explanation will be finished, concluded. Thank you very much for your participation.
Unknown Executive
executiveLastly, we would like to take your questions regarding the content of today's presentation. The question will be led by Mr. Shinada, CEO and Mr. Nakashima, CFO of Panasonic Corporation, a word from Mr. Shinada, to start off.
Masahiro Shinada
executiveThank you very much, everybody, for your participation for such a long time and long meeting. So this year, this time, HVAC has been included and all the divisional company heads were talking, and therefore, our time schedule for -- and is around 5:30. We were, because of that, thinking that it was very difficult to hold the session. However, for next June, we would like to be fully prepared for the next IR day. And how did you like our IR day today? I think you have various impressions on us. So for 1 year, the Panasonic Group has been changed and now we are within a big, big cooperation, and between corporations, we are having coordinations more, and I think you have filled that, in Europe, the HVAC business will be sold. And in America, there's a Hussmann and India. There's a former anchor and we have the current PW company. So in every region, we have a core company. And leveraging on the capability of that core companies within the region, we intend to expand within the mid- to long run. That is our thought. So within each of the companies, I suppose you have felt that. And in Japan, we would like to secure the very strong leadership position and how we are going to be expanding. On the overseas market is something that we have been explaining, and I would like you to be cooperative and supporting us in the future, too. And now we would like to open up for questions. The question we'll take from the [indiscernible]. And we are very sorry, but we are not able to take questions from the English channel. From the side, we would like to entertain our question.
Operator
operatorMorgan Stanley, MUFG Securities, please.
Masahiro Ono
analystThis is Ono from Morgan Stanley. Including the feedback of the market, there's something that I wanted to mention. As Mr. Shinada mentioned, you're having 5 divisional companies. And within the Panasonic Group company, you're the largest of the organization. And for the focal area, you have 7 focal areas to work. And my impression is that slightly too many. And my question is regarding your focus of the business. There is a leader for the growth in the stabilized area. You have several categories. However, I would like to know the flexibility of this categorization. And Mr. Kusumi has become a CEO of the Holdings and within the 2 years, he says that he are tracking down the corporations. And so with the schedule and the Holdings' schedule, Mr. Shinada-san, how are you going to be looking at these 5 individual companies? That's one thing. And second question it's also related with the first question. You're having a large organization. And from the takeover from the former organization is Panasonic and Panasonic Electric, and there's the organizations rather overlapping some area. So the interact division and the changes -- opportunities of changes there, I would like you to comment on it.
Masahiro Shinada
executiveThank you very much for your question. So as you say, focal area works 7 area, you have pointed out that, that's too many numbers in some phase or 2. So online presentation, Page 12, the leader, there's a leader market and the stable market that meaning that -- for the business, the life stage of each businesses are different. So we have added some explanation to this. So that's the honest part. As mentioned, the growth leader is saying that our strains and our winning strategy, and the market within that area, the business is understood how much the returns can bring up -- come back to us? So within the mid-term plan, the profit driver, will be the 2 businesses. The growth leader candidate has the energy solutions and the CO2 refrigerator and freezer, and we didn't talk about Energy Solutions but within the Katayama-san session, CO2 freezer has a large opportunity within the mid- to long run. However, the scale is not that big. Therefore, it's a little bit short to tell a story within the whole business. And that is how we explained, and that is truly the situation today. So in Japan, the home appliances and the showcases is in a sense, a cash cow. The cash created there should be reinvested, and I need everybody to understand this correctly. So we will be changing our explanation in a different way time by time, but then we will be always placing our emphasis on these 2 areas. The growth leading area and the stable area. So this is a company with a sense of conglomerate, and we don't want to be discounting ourselves, and we want to be adding benefits upon our relationship. Therefore, that is why we landed with explaining like this. We intend to communicate deeply with you, and the -- to the opinion that I have just mentioned and shared with you today. If you do have any other feedback that maybe we should be explaining like this and that, which would be better, then we will be very appreciative. I've been talking to other executives too and other people say that 7 focal area of businesses rather too much is some feedback from the internal side too. And within this 7, according to the phases at the time, we will be focusing -- or maybe we might change the focus. But we will keep up with mainly focusing on the 7. When I started working for the IR, I wanted to work for the management for mid- to long-term, and that's what I have shared. That means -- so those are the area that I really won't focus currently. So as mentioned for this mid- to long-term, what I should do within what I have decided, I have to be keeping up with my words. And second issue. Second issue about the indirect cost. So the appliance in L.A, indirect sections or the functions was quite big. So what do we do with it. The interest in that also the expectations or kind of upside existed. So in the past year, as we worked on this, there are different way of thinking in each factor. So for example, IT, integrating them because skills are all different. So when we distribute them, there could be a variability of the skills, depending on the divisional companies. So that's what we found out. So IT want to make sure that we do the reform of IT, we need to standardize the skill set. Otherwise, we won't be able to speed up. So from the 1st of December, the new team will be starting. So something like that is being done in the indirect part. So what we learned in the past year and how to utilize them, we are making progress in our discussion. And from the cost perspective, how does it look? It would take time to show it, but how can we maximize the performance? I think we are making a good progress in that sense. Thank you much. Thank you. So 7 priority areas will be focused on that. And those 7 priority areas, we want to support them in the medium- to long-term. So we have made that decision, so we would make sure that we will show you the results. One thing about HVAC, the growth leader that Europe is one of the things that we mentioned. So air-to-water, I want to make sure that we increase the market share. So why are we improving the market share was already mentioned today. And at the same time, in the medium- to long-term -- excuse me. So 1 million unit is what Michiura-san mentioned. So a JPY 50 billion investment for the air-to-water was also mentioned. And with this JPY 50 million -- JPY 50 billion will not correspond to the 1 million. So we want to make sure that we make the JPY 50 billion investment in a different side than the Czech Republic, we will be investing so that we can achieve 1 million unit. Thank you very much.
Operator
operatorWe are getting a lot of questions so we would like to limit the number of the questions to one question per person. We are taking one question from the shareholder building. So Ezawa-san from Citigroup Securities.
Kota Ezawa
analystOne question I'm told. So the IR Day in June, the relationship with the holding company was what I asked about Mr. Shinada, gave me some questions. So I'd like you to give us an update on that. So new Panasonic Corporation, you have a divisional companies. So there is a kind of an overlap with the holding company. And because of that, there is a cost. And vis–à–vis, the Holdings, you did pay dividend or there is a movement of the capital. And that kind of relationship will be revisited. That's what you said. So in June, you said that you want to come up with an answer in -- by the end of first half. So could you give us an update?
Masahiro Shinada
executiveWell, Holdings and us, we are trying to visualize it. So where we have overlap and so forth. By the end of the first half, I think we have completed the research mostly. And what needs to be reformed, improved, we now know the direction. So there are differences of the numbers. But at the same time, internally, there are various -- the transactions and the relationship between Holdings and us. So we want to look at it in a fair manner. And we are starting to see that. So this year, for example, we have come to have a good discussion. That's a good progress, I think. And so in the Panasonic Corporation, the relationship between the headquarters and the operating companies. There are some area that we cannot go into. But how does that represent the competitiveness? So between the holding and the operating companies, there are some areas and also the headquarters and the divisional companies. There are things that we have to handle in an appropriate manner. So in the Panasonic Corporation business competitiveness is -- we would like to create a situation so that we can compare the competitiveness easily. Sorry, I'm sure you are running out of time. I do not understand what you said. Very well. So competitiveness, you want to make it, create a condition so that you can compare their competitiveness. They are dedicated companies, for example, Cold Chain business, the competitors is not the conglomerate. So it's a single industry company, who is our competitor. So when that is the case, internally, we have the areas that -- so the profit that we disclosed, and there are some areas that cannot be separated. So we want to make it easy to understand and easy to see so that we can disclose the actual competitiveness of each business. And that's what we are trying to do.
Unknown Executive
executiveWatanabe from [indiscernible] released online.
Unknown Analyst
analystWatanabe from doing [indiscernible]. One question. The production system of last -- about Europe and HVAC and CNA China, local production and local consumption seems to be that may stay. But the production system domestically, [ VPN ] is somewhat subsided. But response to FX fluctuation and production and the procurement rate increase. So the room for local production and local consumption in Japan. In a big picture, the home appliances facilities in Japan, we are going to make some light investment because there's room for further enhancing productivity. On the other hand, local production side, what, there are some products where we are considering moving from China to Japan, the production. In view of the exchange rate, lead time and the delivery and without this problem, we can deliver the product and collect. Then under the current FX environment, there are businesses where it is better to do that. We have some prospects. And currently, for some products, we are going to revise back to domestic production. And there are products where we are planning to revise back to local production in Japan. But when that happens, then the basis in Japan needs to be rationalized to a certain extent. So now is the time when we are taking stock of the production facilities in Japan, and we are proceeding with the discussion as to how to go about this.
Unknown Executive
executiveSo more specifically, the products and timing, that's not decided. Specifics have not been decided. What we did first is the vacuum cleaners in [ Kusatsu ], Shiga Prefecture, the plant is there. You may not know this, but [ Kusatsu ] in Shiga, we have the plant for vacuum cleaners. When I was present at appliance company, the production was come down to 200,000, 300,000 units, but the production has recovered to close to 1 million units. So it has meant of the product capability. And along with that, profitability is increased. That is the vacuum cleaners. And then air conditioning for Japanese specification, top-end products. And the case of air conditioners, we have the machine and also outdoor installed equipment, and it should be the discussion as to the higher efficiency if we had to produce these in Japan. And for the other domestic home appliances, we are thinking about that as well. How much time we are going to spend upon sorting this out? So at this point in time, we cannot be very clear in saying what we are going to do by when. But for the block of -- tank of products that we are considering, there are items that we are considering as a possibility for rationalizing, thank you very much.
Unknown Executive
executiveThe time is running short. So online, we'd like to entertain one question. And then lastly, from the [ Junya Ayada], JPMorgan Securities. Ayada-san please, online -- asking questions online.
Junya Ayada
analystJPMorgan, Ayada. Slide -- Page 10, we have had the direction of business. So thinking about profit, I would like to ask you to invite in us especially big portion this time, FX and logistics to [ 120 ] and JPY 94.3 billion improvement. And the swap spot price has come down going forward from next year if the current market condition continues, what kind of expectation do you have? And the price revision at the IR Day in June, 3 years, you said plus JPY 50 billion. And then this time -- this time close to JPY 100 billion. So what is the direction from next year onwards?
Takeshi Nishikawa
executivePrice revision and rationalization JPY 93.4 billion after revision. Originally, you were saying that JPY 80 billion for this year in the initial forecast. JPY 40 billion from price revision and JPY 40 billion from rationalization. That was a breakdown we announced in June. Then the breakdown of JPY 90 billion, price revision plus a bit more than JPY 50 billion and JPY 40 billion from rationalization. On the other hand, rationalization in the first quarter, with the lockdown in Shanghai is slightly behind. So short fall, there will be further price revision. So a total of JPY 90 billion. That is our plan. On the other hand, materials exchange rates and logistic costs, as explained, the materials cost and logistics is reducing somewhat from the original forecast, but the exchange rate in our case, renminbi and Japanese yen weakening and the hydraulic air-to-water is produced in Malaysia. Europe is weak against dollar and it's is weak, so negative headwind. So unfortunately, FX, unfortunately, the impact is greater than we anticipated, which resulted in these numbers. Next fiscal year, how we are going to make action plan. We have to think about that. But in the medium- to long-term, raw materials including response to the environment, the price is not likely to go down in any major way. And exchange rate also U.S. inflation subsides, then the exchange rate weak yen will be relaxed, but environment such that yen is unlikely to appreciate in any way, major way. So with these assumptions, we will come up with action plan for next year and onwards.
Unknown Executive
executiveI may give you the additional comment from the broader perspective. As Nishikawa-san said, the raw material cost and the logistic costs are stabilizing. And during this time, as I said in my presentation, for example, among the raw material prices, we have already taken measures to alleviate, and there are some materials that we could lower the cost. So year-on-year comparison, JPY 102 billion is negative and also Malaysia and also export to Europe due to the ForEx from the first half of next year air-to-water will be locally manufactured,, so that would be positive. So JPY 102 billion, I think there is quite an upside. But at the same time, the lingering war and also the economic situation in the second half of Q3. Looking at that, compared to the time that we created the medium-term plan, the economy is decelerating more than what we expected or is going towards the worst situation. That is a major change. So there's upside, but business environment is also tough. So how do you evaluate that so that we can achieve the target each year. So that's the way of thinking that we have.
Operator
operatorSo last question from the shareholder building from Goldman Sachs. Mr. Harada.
ハラダ
analystYes, this is Harada speaking. Earlier, Shinada-san talked about the medium- to long-term strategy. So, from that perspective, I'd like to ask a question. At the beginning, you mentioned that the market in India is likely to grow at high rate. India, I think, as a national policy generating hydrogen, and they plan to export. And for you, the hydrogen fuel cell technology is what you have. So that demand in India and when it's exported to Japan, and that is also a business opportunity. So energy or resource are risk distribution from that perspective, you could probably play important role. So from that perspective, anything that you can share with us?
Masahiro Shinada
executiveWell, India -- about India, well, regionally, the service percentage of it about more than 50% of the GDP for it is unusual. So generated by the manufacturing is only like 25%. So Indian government is trying to focus on -- from our perspective, there are 3 things. One is manufacturing. And product in India, the strong manufacturing capability that is something that they're trying to gain. So Make in India is what they are trying to promote. So every year, there's a production increase, and they provide the lower tax. And as the manufacturing expands, they are offering a major incentive. So in that sense, in the air conditioning business, this is a tailwind for us. The second is the supply chain and logistics. In India, they are very much focused on this. So the national land is big, but infrastructure is quite poor. So in the context what we talked about today, the fresh food cannot be distributed. So there's an issue of the food loss, which is becoming more serious in India. So Cold Chain business right now is not so big, but Cold Chain business in India has a lot of potential, I think. So we have Hussmann's Oceania site. So from there, how do you expand the Asian business? The is the kind of scenario that Katayama-san is trying to formulate right now. And the third is on e-commerce. It's going to grow very rapidly. And so in that sense, using the physical store and also the e-commerce in the developed countries, for example, Japan, Europe and U.S., e-commerce percentage is increasing, but actually, much faster speed, of the growth of e-commerce is going to happen in India. So in all of the businesses that we do in India, how do you build the infrastructure so that we can accommodate the coming EC or e-commerce era is what we need to do with. Hydrogen probably is too early. But to do with EV, how to stabilize electricity, there are other challenges that we have to work on. So within business, India and the hydrogen, whether we can expand the business right away, but it's not something that we are thinking about. Other areas that I just talked about, we will have them earlier in coming decades. So we want to make sure that we capture that opportunity. And that's what we would like to do, I would like to do first. Thank you. Now we would like to conclude the Q&A session. With this, we'd like to, we have covered all the programs we have prepared. With this, we would like to bring the business strategy briefing turned in. Thank you very much for your participation and being with us for longer. Thank you very much. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]
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