PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

March 18, 2025

NASDAQ US Financials Financial Services conference_presentation 45 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#1

All right. We're ready for our next session here, and we are very excited to have Frank Keller from PayPal with us. He's the General Manager of the large enterprise business. So Frank, we appreciate your time. Thanks for being here. And it would be good just to start, maybe for those who are a little less familiar or didn't make it to the Investor Day, just tell us a bit about your role and responsibilities and how that's evolved at PayPal over time.

Frank Keller

executive
#2

Sure. Thanks, Jason. And super excited to be here talking about win checkout actually. And that's very important for all of us. So I've been with PayPal for 14 years, started in Germany, ran the market for a while. And I'm now overseeing our large enterprise and merchant platform group. So think of it as kind of 2 roles that I have. One is all the success -- driving success with our large enterprises around the world globally, all the brands that you can imagine, all big brands. And then the second part of the job is providing the platform capabilities to connect the consumer and the merchant side of our tool side network. More specifically, that's everything around checkout, and that's everything around enterprise payments.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#3

It's a lot. Well, the title of your presentation at the Investor Day was win checkout. So the investment community was obviously super focused on what you had to say, it's a great interest, it's certainly great interest to investors. And so PayPal has this target now to accelerate growth in the branded business to about 8% to 10% in 2027. We're sitting at 6% today. A big part of that is the new checkout button, and you guys have been talking about it for a bit. So tell us why is it better than the old button?

Frank Keller

executive
#4

Sure. I'll start there. If we look at our branded checkout experience, we looked at what is getting in the way for our customers. And we have been highly focused on delivering a best-in-class experience. And if you break that down, that is basically -- first, we looked at log in, which is the friction, especially on mobile, who wants to type in a password who wants to remember a password, who wants to type in the user name. so we have moved log in from a manual approach to a biometric approach. And we see 95% log-in success rate there. Second thing was we speeded up the experience. We've improved the latency of our experience by 40%. We're not stopping there. We're actually moving the whole checkout stack to the cloud, which should give, especially for international customers, a further acceleration. We have also looked at Buy Now Pay Later, which is embedded into our checkout. So every PayPal customer can get Buy Now Pay Later. And we have made design changes, made the design much more modern, also more sleek especially on mobile. And we are seeing a 20% lift in Buy Now Pay Later, actually over 100% in first-time users. And we're making it more personalized. And when you take all of that together, you see between 100 and 400 basis points in lifting conversion rate. But we're not stopping there. These are the things we've rolled out. We are rolling out, and I think we're going to talk about this. But there's also more innovation that is coming that my team is actively working on thinking about leapfrogging even further what we can do, bringing AI, bring our data capabilities to the forefront, making it much more personalized.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#5

Excellent. Excellent. Yes. So let's talk about kind of rollout plan. I know what you laid out at the Investor Day is that the new checkout experience would be available to 80% of your global volume by 2027. I think that compares to, I'm going to call it, low double digits today, maybe 10% to 12%. So that rollout is expected to drive, I think, 1 to 2 points of the acceleration in the branded volume growth over the next 2 years. So how do we think about going from, call it, 10% to 12% today to 80% in 2027. I mean what does that progress look like? Is it pretty ratable? Let's start there.

Frank Keller

executive
#6

Yes. So when we looked at getting this new experience to -- in the hands of our customers. We started with the biggest customer pools and market by market. And our biggest market is obviously in the U.S. and we started in the U.S. That's where we have developed and codeveloped with customers this new experience, and we will start it rolling out. The next will be Europe, which is our next largest markets are Germany and the U.K., and then we roll out through the rest of the world. If you go click into it, there's almost 3 phases to it. Some of our merchants -- we have an infrastructure that's been out there for over 20 years, some of our merchants sit on what I call a platform integration, which means they're able to not only absorb our latest checkout experiences but also other capabilities. And those who sit on that platform integration, we can pretty much without much of their help or any help scale those experiences. And that's the phase we've been on, I would call it ratable because it's just scaling through. We've been working through the different verticals and we shared -- we're about 30% in the U.S. right now. We keep growing through that and accelerating. Then there comes a middle phase, which is, now you have merchants that don't sit on the platform integration, they need to do technical work to get these experiences. So that's where, especially with large enterprises, we go in with our sales force, we work through that. So you can expect a little bit of slower slope because merchants need to do work. And then there comes a third phase. We haven't announced when but we're going to deprecate our old experiences, which means that then I expect actually for the laggards, some of them to accelerate again. So think of it in 3 phases: first, scaling without merchant help, then having conversations and make them move to the new experience and the platform. And then the last part is really us shutting down the old experiences. And then when you look internationally, as I said, U.S., Europe, rest of world with the same patterns basically.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#7

Got it. Got it. Okay. All right. So we'll be looking to Germany and U.K. next. I think that's starting later in '25, if I recall correctly?

Frank Keller

executive
#8

Yes. We're actively working on that.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#9

Okay. excellent. Now are there specific economic incentives that you're ever offering the merchants to adopt the new button?

Frank Keller

executive
#10

So when we are in front of merchants, we're basically selling on value. And how we engage in the conversations is we show usually the merchant side by side and talking to larger enterprises now mostly end partners. We show it side by side of the old experience and the new experience. And just by the speed of it, a lot of them say, okay, we get it. But then we go in and show merchant-specific data, throughout the funnel, how the different pieces would drive lift. One of the things I've not earlier talked about, I want to mention here is that merchants have to make a choice, what kind of payment methods are they presenting to their customer. And we're now able with -- we have made an innovation which is called Payment Ready API, which is a signal to the merchant, telling the merchant basically, "Hey, you have a PayPal customer, you have a Venmo customer, you have a pay later customer and the propensity of that customer to choose their payment method, which allows them then to prioritize for our customers our payment method." That's also very helpful in terms of getting the prioritization in.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#11

I see. So let's think about this rollout to U.K., to Germany. What is the competitive environment in those markets look like for branded checkout compared to the U.S.? And will the implementation challenges of the new button be different, do you anticipate relative to the U.S.?

Frank Keller

executive
#12

Yes. International is very important for us. It's actually 60% of our branded checkout volume is coming from international markets. If you look at international, Germany is the next largest market and then the U.K. and then other European markets and the rest of the world. The environment is highly competitive and highly dynamic also because we have a lot of regulatory regime changes that we see happening. When I look at those markets, the biggest thing that we're working through is markets that show strong customer authentication, especially the U.K., where our biometric launching Pass keys and so on to simplify that log in experience is very, very important. So we're highly focused on rolling out this across those markets. And then about the speed, we actually have a higher share of platform integrations with -- in our international markets than in the U.S. We have about 50% of all merchants sit on these platforms, which allow my hunches, we'll see a little bit of faster ramp there. But we don't know what we don't know. We're in the middle of it.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#13

Right, right, right. Okay. So 50% of the merchants internationally are on the latest addition, what is that in the U.S?

Frank Keller

executive
#14

I think Alex said this before, it's about 1/3.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#15

Okay. okay. All right. So that may give you a little bit of a leg up, if you will. Yes, exactly. So it's early days, obviously, with the new button with the rollout there. But what does your data show so far just in terms of frequency with which the consumers are employing the new button in a mobile versus a desktop environment compared to how they've used the traditional button?

Frank Keller

executive
#16

Yes. We have been super focused on mobile. I mean, do you want to focus on where consumers shop and a lot of traffic is happening more and more on mobile devices and our experience has not been optimized for mobile. And that's why we focus on the design to make it very slick. You don't have to scroll on mobile. It's very neat. It's very clear, very simple, clear steps: When do you want to pay? How do you want to pay with what kind of funding method? Where do you want to ship your item? You can see all of that in 1 page. And then especially on mobile, the log-in experience, making it biometric so that it's super seamless. These are things that we've been focused on, and we see a 100 basis point lift based on driving that, and we get extremely good customer feedback on that experience. I think it's a super powerful experience.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#17

For sure, for sure. So speaking of biometric Apple Pay, obviously, always comes up as a kind of premier e-commerce checkout experience. So how would you say PayPal's new button compares to that? And then just hearing a little bit about Apple Pay's planned entry into non-Safari browsers that's still nascent, but it seems like it's coming down the pike. How does that potentially impact the competitive landscape from PayPal's perspective?

Frank Keller

executive
#18

We've been hyper-focused on delivering an experience that is the best-in-class experience. Now that our new -- I can confidently say when you use the new PayPal experience, it is as slick as anything out there. it is -- especially on mobile. It is super powerful. If you have our app installed, you will not see -- we use the app as an authentication method, it will feel like other biometrics, it is super slick and seamless. There's a lot of speculation when competitors launch new experiences. I get inbound internally, we have a lot of debates about it, you can imagine. I have personally looked into this. We have not seen a significant difference in any share dynamics based on these announcements. So, so far, I can say it's pretty consistent. But there's always speculations.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#19

Right, right, right. Yes. I'm sure that will continue. You guys gave some other interesting new disclosures into PayPal Checkout at the Investor Day. So I want to make sure I get these numbers right, 57% of transactions are vaulted. And so that's where the user is saving PayPal as their payment method with a particular merchant. So subscriptions, gaming, ride sharing, a lot of recurring type transactions. Then there's the onetime check out. That's the other 43%. So that's where the user is doing PayPal kind of a transaction by transaction basis. I think you see that a little bit more with retailers online. So we'd love to hear a little bit more about kind of the respective growth rates of vaulted versus onetime and maybe any notable differences in average transaction size?

Frank Keller

executive
#20

Sure. So let me start with our vaulted experience is actually our best in class of the best in class. It has a 95% conversion rate, I think it will be very hard for a retailer to find something like that out there. And the reason is, once you're vaulted and I'll come to that in a second so meaning you're stored, you have store PayPal on that merchant. It is basically a 0 friction experience. You focus on your rights, you focus on your -- whatever it is, shopping experience and the payment happens in the background. Because we have multiple funding sources in the wallet, we have backups. So if your card fails, we can pull from another card, we can pull from bank maybe you have balance. And that's why you see the super high conversion rate. So to your second part of the question, which is how do we see the shift or any shift. We see an acceleration actually of recurring transactions. People are using more subscriptions, they like using PayPal for that. It's very convenient. And so we are seeing a little shift from onetime to recurring from onetime to vaulting, also because we've been driving these integrations with a lot of merchants because it's the best performing experience and it's sticky. Once you have vaulted PayPal, you don't think about it, you use it all the time. So it's for us and for the consumer and for the merchant, a really good experience. So it's sticky. We have high conversion rates so merchants love it and the consumer, it's a friction-free experience. What we had to work on was the vaulting process to make that easier because that is usually an extra step. And that's what we've been working on as well with the new experience.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#21

Okay. Okay. Understood. And just kind of staying on this theme of acceleration and branded volume growth over the next couple of years, about a point -- an additional point of that acceleration is expected to come from Buy Now, Pay Later. And that's a market PayPal has been in for quite a while. Obviously, I think you're forecasting 20% plus BNPL volume growth over the next couple of years. So tell us a bit about your Buy Now, Pay Later product, perhaps versus some of the other competitors that are out there like Affirm and others?

Frank Keller

executive
#22

Yes, sure. So we are operating in 7 markets. We're one of the leading players in all of them. And we have processed $33 billion in TPV last year. We're planning to double that in the 3-year plan that we've shared. And it is -- that the advantages it's sitting within the wallet. It's also expressed outside of the wallet if merchants want it, but it comes with every PayPal transaction, you can choose to pay later. And we've been focused actually on the new experience to make that slicker and easier. That's why we've seen that lift in volume there. We have -- because we know all of our customers, we have 65% of all the PayPal customers are preapproved. And we're now showing consumers, hey, you can, for sure, get a pay later with this merchant in this transaction. So one of the advantages is merchants don't need to do anything. If they offer PayPal, they get embedded pay later. What we see is if these merchants drive upstream presentment, meaning on their item page and further upstream in the funnel, if they promote Buy Now, Pay Later and have offers around this, we see a 35% lift in sales for the merchant.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#23

Is that becoming more common?

Frank Keller

executive
#24

That is becoming more common, others are doing that as well. We have a super slick process because we know all of our customers and then we're also driving further innovation. I think we started sharing that we're going to have an omnichannel offering, which will start in Germany. And so you'll see us also innovating here around the world.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#25

Yes. Great. Great. So the last part of the branded volume acceleration equation is pay with Venmo. So you're talking about maybe a point of growth from that over the next couple of years, $8 billion of volume last year on Pay with Venmo, you're looking at a CAGR of 40% plus through 2027. What are the sources of that growth and just the confidence level there? I know Pay with Venmo has kind of had some fits and starts over the years.

Frank Keller

executive
#26

Yes. A point of growth coming from Buy Now, Pay Later, a point of growth coming from Pay with Venmo. $8 billion roughly tripling it in the 3-year plan. We've been pretty nascent on Pay with Venmo. If you think about that option. Actually, last year, we had a 50% increase. So team is highly focused, 50% increase in merchant share. What we're seeing where we have very strong product market fit is actually in mobile-centric and mobile-first use cases. And retailers are super interested in the demographic, engaging with those customers. And I think holistically, we're shifting the conversation that's true for all types of branded checkout experiences, we're shifting the conversation with retailers to -- its in checkout, where we can also drive consumer demand back to you. So through offers, through rewards, now think about this demographic, it's -- there's a high affinity to get this demographic back to a customer. So using us as a channel to drive demand. And so as we're working through the different verticals, I would say, you see things like gaming, so digital, you see things like quick service restaurants. All of these things are -- is a high affinity for Pay with Venmo, and we're just getting started. We have very solid execution. We talked about the 80% share. So our commercial teams are highly focused on getting the new experience, getting paid later and getting pay with Venmo out to the merchant base and to really leverage our scale of our 430 million customers on the merchant and the consumer side.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#27

So is that part of kind of more of a holistic sales approach as far as there being a dedicated Pay with Venmo sales team.

Frank Keller

executive
#28

Correct. So I would say that is in general a big shift what we're doing. We have announced PayPal Open. And the notion of PayPal Open to merchants is you come to us once and you get a whole set of capabilities, you get our awesome branded checkout experience, you get pay later, you get Venmo, you get demand generation through offers and rewards. And then we have, I think we'll talk about that later, all the payments and value-added services capabilities.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#29

For sure, for sure. Yes. All right. Well, I want to shift off of branded checkout. I know it's one of your favorite topics, but we're going to go to Fastlane because that's another favorite topic so you had the initial rollout last year. You had a bunch of partnerships. Adient, Fiserv, et cetera, you're targeting guest checkout. And at the Investor Day, 25% of Fastlane users are new to PayPal. You guys talked about and over 50% of those users have had an inactive PayPal account, which I thought was an interesting metric. So tell us how Fastlane helps both these new these, I guess, I'll call them former users engage or, in some cases, reengage with PayPal more broadly?

Frank Keller

executive
#30

Yes. So when we looked at expanding our share in Checkout, we saw this untapped opportunity in guest checkout. Big pain point for consumers big pain point for merchants, 54% of consumers drop out in guest checkout. That immediately impact the bottom line of merchant. So we innovated with Fastlane, we see a 50% lift in conversion rate there. We see 40% of consumers actually opting into it, and they have a 36% faster experience. What was interesting is we looked at who is actually doing this and we saw, as you said, 25% of users we have seen in branded, 50% have used us in the past, so they have a dormant accounts, you can say. So we have their data on file that they haven't used us recently. So we see Fastlane as a second bite to the apple and get them into our ecosystem and then reengaging those customers actually for branded checkout. I'm happy to explore that a little bit further, if you want.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#31

Yes. Well, I guess I'd be curious, like on the inactive side, how do you get them from being dormant to being active? I mean are you serving up some kind of offer feedback loop through because you said, you have their e-mail address.

Frank Keller

executive
#32

Correct, correct. So I think what was interesting, we're already seeing a bump in engagement of customers that used Fastlane also on the branded side. And we have done nothing. We haven't done marketing. We haven't done growth loops. We have done nothing. So what we're working on right now and doing experiments is what are the marketing loops, what are the in-app and application growth loops to drive them back? What are the value messages you can imagine, you can do package tracking, you can do offers, you can do Buy Now, Pay Later. All these things are only available if you use us on the branded side. And what we're highly focused on is actually getting people into the app because the app is now a switch for us: a, it's a mobile experience. It enables a lot of seamless biometrics, but it also is a surface where you can get pre- and post-purchase experiences that you usually cannot get in a guest checkout. It also helps merchants because what we do with Fastlane and branded, people don't want to log into their merchant store, and we help linking those accounts making that easy for a merchant. So they don't miss out on that.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#33

Yes, okay. And let's hit on monetization. Of course, that's where the river meets the road at least for this group, right? So what is the monetization strategy behind Fastlane? And just time line on that? I mean, I know you've been trying to build merchant acceptance first, which makes sense, but any thoughts there would be great.

Frank Keller

executive
#34

Yes. I think when we announced it, everybody got super excited about this so I get this question a lot. So we're right now, think about it this way, we're focused on building a network effect. It's a big part of the pie getting consumers engaged will drive overall engagement so we're focused on driving merchant acceptance. That's why we have announced all these partnerships, and we're continuing to build out partnerships with Adient, Fiserv, we have JPMorgan. We have a couple of others in the pipeline. We have e-commerce partners to get distribution out there. And that is similar to branded checkout, it's a slope. When you think about direct monetization, we're right now not focused on that piece, we're focused on the effect it does driving the branded checkout experience. But if you think about the optimization monetization opportunity is adding value-added services. So now imagine you have a customer and a merchant that has this guest checkout share. I can now come in with value-add service like our fraud management, charge-back protection, charge-back automation, buyer protection, all these kind of things, and help the merchant to reduce costs. And so I can monetize there. And there's way more things we can do on that. So we have multiple avenues to monetize and that's the next follow-on step that we're focusing on.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#35

Okay. So it's more of like an indirect flywheel effect rather than...

Frank Keller

executive
#36

Indirect flywheel, and then it's attachment of value-added services.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#37

Okay Yes, that all makes sense.

Frank Keller

executive
#38

And there's -- I think we want to keep flexibility. And I don't want to slow down our market penetration by putting that wall up.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#39

Right, right. Well, and especially if you're getting this knock-on effect of the specially end users are now using the button more, right? Obviously, that's accretive.

Frank Keller

executive
#40

Yes. And we didn't know that when we rolled it out. So now that's great initial proof.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#41

Right. Right. Yes, it definitely sounds like that's a nice -- getting that uplift is a big deal. I wanted to move on to the -- as you call it, the enterprise payments business. A lot of people call it, Braintree, unbranded, got some different names, I guess. But unbranded processing. It's about 1/3 of PayPal's total volumes, it's a pretty competitive space. So how does PayPal actually differentiate itself in unbranded?

Frank Keller

executive
#42

Yes. Let me make a comment on that Braintree so we've announced that we're moving away from Braintree was a brand we have acquired many, many years ago. We have a bunch of brands that we have acquired. And we have decided that on the merchant side, we're positioning PayPal Open as the merchant brand. So as part of that, Braintree will become enterprise payments for PayPal Enterprise payments. And that's why we're moving away from the name. Everybody in the industry knows Braintree. So it's a synonym for that. We're -- some of the more sophisticated and largest merchants around the world are using us for payment processing. Think Meta, think Uber, think Booking.com, highly sophisticated merchants. And what we're hearing is we're highly competitive on our auth rates, we're actually versus peers were about 500 basis points above authorization rates even of the most competitive players in the market. And that's something the team is very proud of. And you can imagine if we look across the whole space, we recognize about 97% of all buyers across our premises. Now take that data off the two-sided network, combine it with payment processing, put AI and ML models into it, we do a lot of optimization. And that's why we see that incredible high performance of our payment processing. Plus, we have a set of value-added services, payouts, risk-as-a-service, FX, payment optimization and we have an open architecture with orchestration, where we are already one of the largest orchestrators in the world, and that's why we've announced this PayPal Open platform strategy. So that's kind of the bundle that merchants get. And then last but not least, of course, our branded capabilities, including Fastlane.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#43

So if we think about -- I think you talked about international as being a focus for the enterprise payments business. going forward. Do you have to differentiate in any other way there versus the U.S.? Just maybe compare and contrast the competitive landscape a little bit?

Frank Keller

executive
#44

Yes, we have -- I've talked about in Investor Day 3 growth levers. One is omnichannel. The other one is growing in geos, and the other one is in verticals. So let me touch upon those 3. You mentioned geos, 70% of our volumes right now concentrate in North America, which is the highest competition also in transaction margin. So focusing outside of the U.S. is very important for us for growth. We're looking at what are the capability gaps that we're closing right now so that we can grow, especially in Europe. This is also where omnichannel comes into play. We've announced this partnership with Verifone that I'm super excited about, which gives us the opportunity to really address holistically volume of merchants that we couldn't do before. Before, we were purely online, we have dabbled a little bit in it. But the biggest hurdle for merchants to actually also get to a modern processor in-store is the investment -- the upfront investment. With the partnership with Verifone, we make that upfront investment close to 0. So if you have a contract with Braintree and to use Verifone terminal, you can actually start processing online and in-store going forward. And so that's something we're rolling outside in North America and then rest of the world next year that I'm super excited about. And there's way more things as we're now also present in-store. We've talked about PayPal Everywhere, which is bringing our branded business to in-store. We're doing this here as well. Now you can think about how to bring all of these capabilities that I talked about in-store, driving customers, driving loyalty, driving customer recognition. So there's a lot of things that we can think about that. And the last growth lever was around vertical, which is very similar to the geo question, talking the language of the vertical, knowing exactly what matters for those. And we have teams that are now rallying around that, that also close capability gaps, think of travel things like that, crypto, very specific. AI is a big focus for us to make inroads there.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#45

So last year, you embarked on this price-to-value strategy in the Braintree business. And the real positive outcome has been that Braintree is now driving contribution to transaction profit growth, which for a period of time, it was not. Now, the other byproduct as expected, volume growth decelerated, right? So we've seen that in recent quarters. So when should investors expect to see Braintree volume growth bottom out? When will the trough come? And then is there a normalized growth rate, if you will, that we should think about once you're kind of largely through implementation of the price-to-value strategy.

Frank Keller

executive
#46

Yes. I'm actually very excited about the trajectory of our enterprise payments business. If you think about it, we have made the deliberate decision to part ways with unprofitable volume. There was a vanity metric. We're no longer chasing that. So we had a very difficult conversation with a couple of clients. And we got rid of unnatural share. None of those clients have churned. Clients are actually because of our performance now coming back and giving us volume a little bit back. But that said, it has given us a 5% headwind in TPV growth, but it's adding 1 point of margin dollars to our P&L. And in the back book so those were tough conversations, some of them continue, but most of the big ones we're through that is leading to the deceleration that you've talked about. But the frontal conversations are going extremely well. Let's not be fooled. We're still extremely competitive on price. We're winning deals. Actually, we get very positive feedback on our pricing structure and combined with our performance, we're now having holistic conversations where we talk from everything about them, from Branded checkout, Fastlane, we talk about payment processing. We're talking about value-added services. So we have a much more holistic conversation about value and the total economics of the relationship to us so that we're accelerating growth. And to your question, my expectation is that as we're going to '26 and maybe the last part of '25, we're starting to accelerate again.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#47

Okay. Okay, good, good. And so maybe you can just go a layer deeper into one of these price-to-value conversations with one of the big merchants, how do those go exactly? I mean how much volume are you typically giving up? How much improvement in the unit economics do you get, any quantification of cross-sell that gets enabled as part of those more holistic conversations that you just referenced?

Frank Keller

executive
#48

As I said, so I think these are highly specific and a lot of it was quite concentrated with some players. And so we've been working through those relationships. As I said, change of regime, a new CEO coming in, setting a different direction, you can imagine that some of those conversations have been difficult. And of course, we're not breaking contractual relationships. So some of them we're living through, but we have come to an agreement and actually merchants understand that it needs to make sense for both sides. And now I think it's also good for all of us here that we're focused on profitable growth. And it's not only processing. A lot of the margin is coming from value-added services and the new team, I have a new leader who is overseeing our enterprise payments business is highly focused on adding and attaching value-added services. Something that has happened before was in order to get volume, we've given away value-added services for free, that is changing. So that is a lot of it, and people get it. If you add value, if you get an incremental value, you can also charge for it. And I'm very proud of when I look at the peer comparison of our performance that customers are giving us volume back when they said, okay, you're not giving us these incentives. So I'm going to a competitor and some of them are saying, "You know what, I'm coming back because I see the performance."

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#49

Interesting like the auth rates, for example.

Frank Keller

executive
#50

Yes.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#51

Okay. Okay. That's definitely an interesting data point. And I want to spend a little time on value-added services because I feel like over the years, PayPal has talked about it more so at certain points in time than others. It was definitely a focus at the Investor Day. And as you mentioned, a new leader of enterprise payments. So it sounds like there is kind of a real kind of renewed push in this area. I think you talked about the revenues for value-added services growing at a high single digit rate through 2027 and you're trying to really grow transaction margin dollars, right, for enterprise payments by 2x by 2027. So VAS is supporting that. So you've touched on in a couple of other answers, some parts of the VAS business, but maybe let's just drill in a little bit, like which are maybe the handful that you're most excited about that are going to move the needle towards those revenue and transaction margin dollar targets?

Frank Keller

executive
#52

Yes. So all of our VAS are extremely margin rich and we want to double that business basically. If you look across all our value-added services starting from payouts, over risk management, over FX to payment optimization even to orchestration, all of those are powered by the data of our two-sided network. So we have $1.7 trillion going through our rails with 430 million merchants, 26 billion transactions on our platform with a 97% recognition rate. All of these capabilities are fueled by that data. And I think you'll see that as a theme of our open platform that the data is going to fuel these capabilities. We're actually even opening that up. We can talk about this later. But let's pick payouts. Payouts not only gives people the capability to do a pay in and connect it to a payout, but it also drives back to branded, 50% of our payouts volume going into PayPal and Venmo wallets. So that is again a loop. I look at FX capabilities, something we've done forever on the branded side, we're exposing that now and externalizing it for merchants. Taking the arbitrage, it's better for the merchant. They can have a lower rate on it. They have stability for small merchants, very hard for them to do, and we get a high margin. Take risk management, something we've done also forever in our branded network, we're exposing that now for merchants. By the way, not only on volume we process but also volume of other processors. And you see us creating that theme of opening the system up for our value-added services for our merchants.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#53

How do you price the value-added services typically?

Frank Keller

executive
#54

So it depends. But some of them are transaction based. Some of them are take rate. It really depends. Some of them are performance-based, you can think of some of the payment optimization capabilities are performance base. So it really depends. It depends on who you're talking with if you're talking to a very sophisticated merchant, if you're talking about a small business, they want more package and shrink wrapped. And that's something my colleague, Michelle is highly focused about. I think the beauty of the platform we're building is get enterprise-grade capabilities that even an Uber or Meta is consuming and now we bundle it up for a small business, and they get that power, shrink-wrapped super simple-to-use capability and Michelle is super focused.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#55

Like a pre-configured bundle.

Frank Keller

executive
#56

Correct. So think of it, the one gets APIs and cables and the other one gets a really nice plug.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#57

Right, right, right. Yes. No, that definitely makes it easy for the SMB to kind of act like they are a larger enterprise. I guess are there -- do you see any holes in your vast portfolio that you really need to fill to maybe get to parity with others? Or do you feel like you have all the pieces.

Frank Keller

executive
#58

I think VAS, we were just getting started. We have not had highly focused investment into this. Some of it, we actually have best-in-class experience. We haven't exposed it the outside. I talked about FX. I talked about RaaS, risk-as-a-service. Payouts, we have Hyperwallet, which becomes enterprise payout payouts. It's something where we have some gaps that we're closing. Also segment specific, some for small businesses versus enterprises. But we have a very, very strong and very high performance portfolio already, and we have so much opportunity ahead.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#59

All right. Well, we look forward to that. You mentioned briefly orchestration, but maybe for those who might be a little bit less familiar, what is orchestration? And then we'll talk a little bit about what PayPal is doing in that area.

Frank Keller

executive
#60

Yes. So think of it this way, when you want to go as a large enterprise, you want to go internationally. You've got to find a process that works in that geo, which means you've got to go through the whole process of technically integrating with that processor, enabling that volume, doing separate ledgers, all the things that come along with it. If you want to include a loyalty provider now you've got to integrate with that loyalty provider, you've got to take the token and identity, board it, match it together, an orchestration layer and that whole premise of PayPal Open is you integrate once into the platform. We have over 100 connections already to PSPs around the world, to third-party providers. You have one technical integration to us. And then you get all these services so you can expand geographically, you can enable new use cases, can even experiment with it, which is otherwise a super steep investment. And you might ask who is doing orchestration, who is doing it themselves. Some of the super large, they can do it. I'm talking super large. They're sophisticated. They can do it. They want to optimize their payment volumes. But think about maintaining 100, 200, 300 connections. Even if you've done the investment, those connections become stale. Each one of these providers are innovating, are updating specs, are adding new capabilities. So now suddenly, you have a team in-house that needs to maintain all of those connections. We do all of that for them.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#61

Right. So it takes the cost burden off.

Frank Keller

executive
#62

It takes the cost burden, it takes an organizational burden off of them. So I'm super excited. And the last piece, which is a little bit more future looking, is I want to create a platform that third-party providers can integrate into us, get that data that I talked about, these data signals will never expose personal information of a consumer, but it's more data signals, get those can enrich their services and use our platform to grow with them, either leveraging our distribution channels or just our technical platform. And that's something we haven't even tapped into. And it's not baked. We might ask and all of you, it's not baked into our growth plans. But that's another thing I'm super excited about.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#63

Do you see orchestration going more downmarket to midsize or even to small businesses? Was there a need?

Frank Keller

executive
#64

That is something I was very surprised. We did a study and we looked at who is a natural fit for orchestration. I thought it's all upmarket. But we found that mid-market, small and mid-market merchants from GMV sale side of $40 million to $50 million, 70% of them said, I'm actually interested. But I don't know how. So again, you've got to bundle that up for them to make it super simple so they probably get less knobs and dials. It's similar like fraud management, some happen in our fraud management team, they want to do it all themselves, others like just do all of it for me. And so that's really how we differentiate enterprise versus small business. It's less the platform. It's more the packaging because they have less resources and less knowledge.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#65

Makes sense. You nailed it, 0. That's it. We're out of time. Exactly.

Frank Keller

executive
#66

Wow. You nailed it.

Jason Kupferberg

analyst
#67

Well, we both nailed it. Thank you very much. We appreciate it. Thanks, Frank.

Frank Keller

executive
#68

Thank you.

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