Pembina Pipeline Corporation ($PPL)

Welcome to the Pembina Pipeline Corporation Business Update. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the conference over to Dan Tucano, Vice President of Capital Markets. Dan, please go ahead.

Thank you, Elizabeth. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Pembina's conference call and webcast. As outlined in the press release issued this morning and available at pembina.com, today's call will provide a broad basis [indiscernible] our business and our path forward through the end of the decade and beyond. The presentation we are using today is available on our website. Before we begin, I would remind listeners that some of the comments made today may be forward-looking in nature and are based on Pembina's current expectations, estimates, judgments and projections. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from what we discuss today. Certain information we reference also relates to non-GAAP measures. For further information on forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures, please refer to our quarterly and annual disclosure available on pembina.com, SEDAR Plus and Netgar. On the call today, we have Scott Burrows, President and Chief Executive Officer, along with Pembina's full officer team, which includes Cameron Goldade, Chief Financial Officer; Jared Sprout, Chief Operating Officer; Sarah Schwan, Chief Legal, People and Corporate Affairs Officer; and Chris Sherman, Chief Marketing and Strategy Officer. With that, I will turn the call over to Scott.

Thanks, Dan, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for this update. Today is an exciting opportunity for us to step back from the quarterly agents and speak more directly about our macro outlook, where Pembina is positioned why we believe our business is advantaged and how we expect our strategy to create value through 2030 and beyond. Pembina has been part of the North American energy infrastructure landscape for more than 70 years. Over that time, we have evolved with the basin built an integrated platform and developed a track record of solving customer needs across the hydrocarbon value chain. We believe that matters even more today. Canadian Energy is entering a period of expanding market access growing demand and improving strategic relevance, and Pembina is very well positioned at the center of this opportunity. Today, we will highlight where we are going as a company. why we will be successful and the growth and value creation we expect to deliver to our investors through the end of the decade and beyond. There are 5 messages we want you to take away from today. First, our success has and will continue to come from something simple but powerful. We do what we say we will. Our growth and reputation have been built on delivering on our promises and earning the trust of our customers, communities, investors and employees. Our credibility has been built on execution. Second, Pembina's advantage is based on 7 years of strategic investments and solutions that continue to serve an ever-evolving energy industry. Our integrated platform gives us connectivity, scale and flexibility that we believe are very difficult to replicate. And combined with our entrepreneurial spirit, positions us to win in the future. Third, our 3C strategy, capture, connect and capitalize. It is a refreshed strategy that is driven by global and domestic fundamentals, and it is designed to grow our core franchise extend our value chain and create new platform demands where we have structural advantages. Fourth, the Canadian energy industry is driven by global demand and is growing across all products. Canada is blessed with an abundance of premier resources and has the expertise and capabilities to get those resources to the best markets, growing export capacity, petrochemical demand, data center demand and the support of policy momentum are all driving exciting growth outlook for the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. And fifth, through our strategy, supported by operational excellence, commercial success and project execution and development, we are committed to delivering 5% to 7% fee-based EBITDA per share growth through 2030 with marketing torque on top of this. At Pembina, credibility begins with execution. At our 2024 Investor Day, we set out a target of 4% to 6% fee-based adjusted EBITDA per share growth from 2023 to 2026. We -- despite developments, we cannot fully anticipate at that time, including the Alliance toll review, our current 2026 guidance positions us at approximately 5% growth, right in the middle of that range. We are also on track to place approximately $2 billion net of projects into service from 2024 through 2026 on time and on budget. At Cedar LNG, we moved quickly after sanction to remarket capacity on a long-term basis. We said we would do the right deal, not the fastest deal, improving the project's economics while keeping the structure aligned with our financial guardrails. We are also participating in upside capture without downside commodity exposure. We have continued to strengthen the resilience of our core business, including contracting over 200,000 barrels per day of piece pipeline capacity in 2025 and covering substantially all volumes that expired in those years. More recently, we've also begun to advance new opportunities in the Alberta industrial heartland including Greenlight, where we have been a first mover in developing a contracted gas to power solution for data center customers. Stepping back and looking at our longer-term history, Pembina has always met its annual financial guidance, consistently increased its dividend always operated within its financial guardrails, never suffered a material cost overrun and maintain our investment-grade credit rating. The point is straightforward. Our strategy is grounded in execution, not aspiration. You can trust us to deliver. Our ability to realize our vision will stem from the advantages of our fully integrated wellhead to market infrastructure and our ability to service customers across the full hydrocarbon value chain. Our business is built on solving problems and meeting the needs of our customers, and we are unique in the range of products we handle and the services we provide. Quite simply, no other Canadian midstream service provider does what we do. We handle crude, condensate, NGLs and natural gas. We connect producing basins to domestic demand, North American demand and global markets. We do that through a combination of scale, connectivity, market access, commercial relationships, project expertise and financial capacity. That gives us 2 important advantages. First, it allows us to create more value for our customers because we can offer integrated solutions rather than stand-alone services. Second, it gives us the ability to extend our businesses into adjacent opportunities where our existing footprint, capabilities and relationships create a low-risk entry point. That is what we have done historically. Some examples include being the first to integrate gas plant, pipe and frac in 2012, building the first large-scale frac complex in over a decade in 2016. The high sour expansion in 2021 being the first large-scale sulfur recovery facility in decades, having the only LPG unit train loading capability. And that is what we are doing today with Cedar LNG, the largest indigenous led joint venture and first floating LNG facility in North America. It is also what we intend to do with opportunities like Greenlight and a broader Heartland buildout. While competitors may challenge our incumbency and attempt to recreate the Pembina of the past, it is our unique advantages that will allow us to remain an industry leader forging new paths and chasing new opportunities. And that brings me to our strategy. Pembina's vision is that together with our many stakeholders, we will shape the future by connecting North American energy to the world. To execute against that vision, we are focused on 3 strategic priorities: capture, connect and catalyze. Capture means growing and strengthening our franchise in premier resource plays. In practical terms, that means additional pipe capacity, gas processing and fractionation where customer demand supports investment. Connect means extending our core commodities to higher-value markets. That includes LPG and LNG exports, expanded market access and infrastructure that improves egress from a constrained basin, reaching coast to coast to coast. Catalyze means developing new demand platforms in the markets where we operate. Our innovative and entrepreneurial teams will endeavor to spark what comes next. That includes gas to power solutions for data centers, petrochemical opportunities and other infrastructure that creates incremental demand for the products that move across our integrated system. These are not separate ideas. Together, they form the blueprint of how we intend to deliver the next phase of growth to the end of the decade and beyond. Our strategy is grounded in macro fundamentals. First, global energy demand continues to grow, and oil and gas remain essential to long-term supply. Natural gas, in particular, is expected to play an increasingly important role. Second, we believe Canadian energy is becoming more strategically important. Geopolitical developments, trade considerations and a more constructive policy environment are all improving the case for greater global market access. Third, LNG and data center power demand are emerging as durable sources of new demand and Canada has meaningful competitive advantages, including low-cost natural gas and attractive West Coast access to Asia. Fourth, the Montney and oil sands remain among North America's premier basins on inventory depth and economics. Pembina is the premier service provider in both. And fifth, Decarbonization remains important, but the pace and capital opportunities around it are evolving. We believe disciplined capital allocation matters more than ever and emissions reduction opportunities must compete appropriately against other uses of capital. These global fundamentals play out in the WCSB as a call on Canadian energy. Growth in the WCSB is being spurred by recent and upcoming developments. Our export capabilities are expanding rapidly. Recently, both the TMX expansion and LNG Canada have come into service, providing nearly 600,000 barrels per day of new egress for Canadian crude oil and 2 billion cubic feet per day of new egress for Canadian natural gas. Additional oil pipeline expansions, along with new or expanded LNG and LPG facilities will drive further demand and growing production of all products throughout the end of the decade. Additional demand drivers include expanding petrochemical facilities and growing power demand. Dallas past to 0 petrochemical project will result in an estimated 120,000 barrels per day of ethane demand, which will also result in incremental production of propane and butane. The proposed new data centers will drive about 180 million cubic feet per day of natural gas demand for each gigawatt of electricity needed to power those centers. In combination, these developments are poised to represent new demand for Canadian energy products that would result in significant volume growth across Pembina systems, which help fill existing assets and lead to further expansions. And these are only the projects that have come into service already or that have good visibility to drive near-term growth. Taken together, these developments support growing volumes across all products and because Pembina is integrated across those products, we expect to benefit along the value chain. Beyond the projects already in motion, all I see momentum adds longer-term upside. Federal and provincial governments are increasingly focused on growth in LNG, petrochemicals, data centers and energy infrastructure. Government have outlined aspirational targets that include growing LNG exports up to 100 million tons per year, attracting data center investments in Alberta up to $100 billion and expanding Alberta's petrochemical hub and building a new 1 million-barrel per day oil pipeline to the West Coast. We are not underwriting our business to every aspirational target on this slide, but we do believe the direction of travel is very constructive and even partial realization of these ambitions would support a stronger growth profile for the basin for Pembina and for our country. The growth of the WCSB is not limited to any 1 product. In fact, each product must work in unison with the others. Oil sands crude growth drives condensate demand, liquids-rich production supports condensate and NGL supply. LNG creates gas egress for the incremental gas supply, LPG export improves propane market access and petrochemicals create a new outlet for ethane. This matters because Pembina is not exposed to 1 part of the system. We are positioned across the system, and here is where it's exciting for us. We are the only 1 with the breadth of services across the value chain touching all of these problems. At the center of that system is our asset base. We lead in many of the services our customers require, including gas processing, transportation and fractionation with growing LPG and LNG businesses. At this footprint overlays some of North America's most resilient resource plays that have the depth of inventory and competitive economics to serve demand markets globally and at home for many years to come. The combination of our industry-leading capabilities across the value chain along with the resource strength of premier plays like the Montney, Duvernay and heavy oil sands shape our long-term value proposition. Simply put, we have the right assets in the right place at the right time. And so what does this all mean for Pembina? The execution of our 3C strategy designed to capitalize on growth in the WCSB gives us confidence in our ability to deliver fee-based EBITDA per share growth of 5% to 7% to 2030 and line of sight to future beyond that. We are committed to delivering on this through 3 primary avenues: higher utilization and volume growth across our existing assets, sanctioned projects already moving towards in-service and projects under development that extend our value chain. We also expect other organic and inorganic opportunities to emerge over time as we turn ideas into reality as we have in the past. We believe this target is ambitious but realistic. It is supported by visible building blocks, a strong core business and a disciplined approach to risk and capital allocation. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jaret to discuss the operational and execution foundations that support that growth.

Thanks, Scott. When we talk about Pembina's growth story, it's easy to focus on the visible outcomes, new assets, new markets, increasing cash flow, but sustainable growth only works if the foundation underneath it is strong. For us, that foundation rests on 3 pillars: #1, operational excellence; #2, commercial success through volume capture; and #3, disciplined project execution. Let me start with operational excellence because this is the foundation underneath everything else we do. For Pembina, operational excellence means running our assets safely, reliably and efficiently and doing that at scale. The first proof point on the slide is safety. In this graph on the top right, you can see a consistent reduction in 2 safety metrics, potential for serious injury or fatality and serious injury or fatality from 2022 through 2025. That improvement reflects strong frontline ownership clearer expectations and safety being embedded as an operating discipline, not just a value statement. For investors, strong safety performance is a leading indicator of strong stable operations. The second proof point is asset optimization. The bottom right graph shows how when customer demand has warranted it, we've safely exceeded nameplate capacity across parts of our system. That only happens when assets are well designed, well maintained and well operated. The consolidated capacity created by the optimization of these 3 assets alone exceed 70,000 BOE per day and the majority of that capacity is being utilized today by our customers. This flexibility allows us to capture incremental volumes and support customers, often with little to no incremental capital, translating directly into higher quality cash flows. Lastly, to sustain this performance, we've also made deliberate organizational structure changes and have implemented a new management system. We've clarified accountability, better aligned operations, maintenance and technical teams and simplified decision-making. The goal is consistency, the same standards and discipline across the entire portfolio. That's how we continue to progress towards becoming a best-in-class operator -- this operational foundation is what enables our commercial success and our ability to capture volume, which I'll turn to next. Building on that operational foundation, our second pillar is commercial success. This slide illustrates commercial success and volume capture across the Western Canadian sedimentary basin. The headline here is straightforward. Pembina's growth continues to match base in growth and we're doing that while achieving record throughput across our systems. Starting on the left with gas processing and extraction, you can see our physical volumes tracking and in many cases, exceeding underlying Western Canadian natural gas growth. This reflects our position as the largest third-party processor in the basin with roughly 6.7 billion cubic feet a day of capacity. Just as important, these are long-term producer-backed relationships and infrastructure partnerships designed to grow with our customers over time. That allows us to capture basin growth in a way that's durable and repeatable -- to the right, you'll see the same story playing out in the conventional pipelines. As Scott mentioned, over 7 years of strategic investment more than 20,000 kilometers of pipe and a fully integrated system from wellhead to end market allows us to grow with the basin. Because we're connecting connected and integrated, incremental volumes naturally flow on our system, support our higher utilization and stable cash flows under long-term contracts. So when you take a step back, commercial success at Pembina being in the right places with the right assets serving long-term customers. In capturing volume of discipline, and that commercial signal is what ultimately drives our capital decisions. That brings me to our final pillar in the foundation of growth, superior project execution. Project execution is both capital discipline first, delivering exactly what customers need, no more and no less. The headline on this slide says it well, capital efficient, safe, on time and on budget expansions to meet customer demand. On the left, you'll see a snapshot of our current execution portfolio across our enterprise. These are not speculative projects. These are expansions to our existing footprint, driven by clear customer commitments and based on lead demand. We also notice a range of project sizes from smaller brownfield expansions through the larger developments, which helps us balance risk, capital and execution capacity. Since our 2024 Investor Day, we've sanctioned over $1 billion of new pipeline and facilities projects on a net basis. More importantly, we're on track to deliver approximately $2 billion of projects between '24 and 2026, approximately 5% under budget. That's not just good execution, that's a disciplined capital management. The portfolio of projects and industry-leading execution allows Pembina to place $1 billion to $1.5 billion per year into service, generating competitive returns and supporting our current and future growth targets. Before I wrap up the foundation of growth, I want to leave you with 1 more execution proof point, Cedar LNG. Cedar is an important project for Pembina, not because it's large, but because it reflects how we execute complex capital-intensive projects with discipline. We've moved from sanction to advance construction with a very deliberate focus on safety, indigenous ownership and execution certainty. For a project of this complexity, progress to date reflects strong upfront planning and governance. Here's an illustrative rendering of what the facility will look like when it comes into service. As you can see, the actual onshore footprint is quite small given the floating nature of the project. The marine terminal facilities are currently under construction and the best construction in the shipyard in South Korea is progressing extremely well. These images show what Cedar looks like today, real work, real progress. The top left photo is the team executing the Cedar LNG pipeline, which is approximately 8-kilometer pipeline connecting the Cedar facility to Coastal GasLink pipeline. The bottom photo on the bottom left is an aerial shot of the marine terminal where the floating vessel will dock. The scope shown here is primarily related to utility services such as power and other service requirements. The 2 photos on the right are the top side and the hall of the floating LNG vessel being constructed in the shipyard in South Korea. Overall, we've made material progress and are pleased that the Cedar project continues to progress. 2026 is the highest spend year for the project as we plan to reach several fuel milestones with our EPC and onshore teams. Additionally, inception to date -- the project is approximately 50% spent and approximately 80% committed, while still on time and on budget. On the right, you can see our key milestones that have been and will be achieved. From vessel construction through to sail away, arrival in Kitimat and ultimately in service in 2028. A few specific milestones we are looking forward to and which should provide the investment community with Comfort as they think of any impmental risks are. The vessel in South Korea will move from dry dock to wet dock in mid this year, it will set sale in 2028, and it will come online in late 2028. Recall approximately 70% of the project is structured under a fixed price EPC arrangement, which significantly limits cost overrun risk. This is exactly how we want large projects structured and managed. Economically, the structure is equally disciplined a fee-for-service model that secures base cash flow with the ability to participate in upside. Pembina will generate USD 220 million per year in fixed fees from Cedars customers. In addition, we'll have the opportunity to generate incremental asymmetrical upside through additional volumes and commodity upside participation. This is a result of recent contracting through which Pembina has the opportunity to increase its return under certain commodity price scenarios. As an illustrative example of the potential upside, given the current energy disruptions and the impact on pricing, if Cedar was in service this year, our net share would generate USD 300 million of EBITDA through fixed fee commitments and commodity price participation excluding the potential incremental cargoes. Importantly, Cedar further integrates Pembina across the value chain from gas processing through to global markets. We see this project as a value chain extension, which provides incremental egress to a constrained basin. We are proud to have this project backed by 3 leading producers, Arc Resources, Ovintiv and Petronas. All 3 are valuable customers to Pembina today, and this project allows us to provide them services beginning from gas processing all the way through to end markets. So when you step back Cedar is a strong example of the foundation we talked about today. Operating discipline, commercial alignment, capital efficient project execution. That foundation positions Pembina extremely well for what comes next. With that, I'll turn it over to Chris, who will walk you through how we're translating this foundation into future growth opportunities.

Thanks, Jaret, and good morning to everyone on the call. Whereas Jared covered our existing core business, which provides the foundation of our 2030 growth target, I'm excited to share some of the future opportunities that our teams are advancing and importantly, why we're confident in our growth out. Across Pembina, we see a strong backlog of development opportunities. These are on strategy. Their customer and market-driven infrastructure opportunities that are aligned with our risk return framework, not only in our core business, which includes additional pipes, fractionators, gas plants and export terminals, but also by continuing to develop new growth pathways and extend our value chain. Scott touched on it earlier. Pembina is uniquely positioned to benefit from the convergence of markets, policy and our capabilities. also how we're translating that convergence into durable growth and executing upon our 3C strategy, capture, connect and catalyst. Before I review specific opportunities, I want to start with our history. Pembina's history is a story of entrepreneurship and disciplined expansion. Building businesses is in our DNA. Over the last 20 years, we've repeatedly entered into adjacent businesses where our capabilities, infrastructure and commercial relationships give us an advantage. There are 3 common themes across this history. First, we deeply understand market and customer needs. We anticipate those needs and invest proactively to address them. Second, we invest in scalable growth platforms and establish ourselves as the market leaders across those platforms. And third, we integrate businesses into the Pembina store, driving incremental value and enhancing our customer offering. This slide includes several examples that highlight these themes. We built a marketing business to capture inherent commercial value in our assets. We expanded into gas gathering and processing, fractionation, long-haul natural gas transportation and oil terminaling to capture growth and expand our service offering. We invested in LPG export and now LNG export to connect to high-growth resilient global markets. And most recently, we're extending again into gas to power infrastructure, creating a new growth pathway, while catalyzing demand. My point is simple. Our history is not 1 of isolated projects. It is 1 of building integrated and scalable businesses over time. Now let's have a look at what we're pursuing next. Clearwater is a good example of how that model continues to work. The Clearwater formation has become 1 of the most attractive resource plays in North America, with strong production growth, compelling returns and favorable decline characteristics. Pembina already had the right of way and infrastructure footprint in the area through our Nipisi pipeline. We anticipated the emerging growth and when the play materialized our legacy positioning created new value. Since reactivating Nipisi in late 2023, volumes and EBITDA contribution have increased by more than 50% versus 2020. A pipeline that went empty is now fully contracted and with activity and customer demand continuing to grow, evaluating expansion options, including twinning and pump station upgrades. Clearwater demonstrates a broader point. In midstream, optionality embedded in existing assets is highly valuable. The Nipisi Pipeline is a great example of how our commercial insight and asset positioning create opportunities to build a durable business around evolving circumstances. That same concept of exploiting optionality is what we're doing at Heartland. Just on a larger scale. As we look forward to 2030 and beyond, some of our most significant development opportunities are benefiting from Alberta's ability to attract billions of dollars of investment in petrochemical and data center projects. This growth focus is and will drive hydrocarbon demand within Alberta. That's benefiting Pembina's existing business and supporting our new growth pathways. . Pembina's industrial heartland position located near Edmonton, provides a compelling value proposition for new investment, particularly as it relates to Alberta's vision to become a data center and petrochemical leader. The region has several structural advantages: industrial land, water access, support of regulation, labor availability, grid connectivity, low cost natural gas available ethane supply, transportation infrastructure and proximity to carbon solutions. We've been positioning ourselves around these structural advantages for some time and are now seeing the payoff in the form of several exciting growth opportunities. Pembina's distinguished by an advantage we spent 70 years building. Leveraging this advantage allows us to build businesses with economic synergies unlike any of our peers. This slide brings that together. Our existing hard land position includes Canada's premier fractionation complex at Redwater, industrial land, hydrocarbon supply access and strong downstream connectivity. On top of that, we're advancing 2 new opportunities. The first is Greenlight, a contracted gas to power solution for a large-scale Canadian data center development, and the second is the yellow head extraction plant, which will support our ethane commitments to Dow, while also increasing C3+ volumes available to Redwater and our broader NGL system. Additional future opportunities that leverage this platform include the Alliance regional expansion and the Alberta Carl Group. One platform, 2 growth factors, all within our right to win, integrated and scalable. Now let's have a look at a few of the specific opportunities in front of us. I want to start with Greenlight. Greenlight is a good example of how we think about catalyze within our 3C strategy. It's a proposed 900-megawatt combined cycle natural gas power facility that we're developing with our partner, Conecticorp, to serve data center demand. Strategically, it extends our natural gas value chain into a durable and growing end market. And I want to make 3 important points. First, this is not a move into merchant power. Our objective is to secure a long-term contracted infrastructure profile consistent with Pembina's typical risk and return standards. Second, Dreamlight will create incremental demand for natural gas and associated liquids, which enhances our core business and provides the potential for an alliance regional expansion. And third, consistent with our history of building businesses, Greenlight is another example of an integrated, scalable growth platform for the future. Over the past year, we've made significant progress on Greenlight, which supported our customers' bid process, we sold land, secured turbine availability, advanced permitting and progressed EPC work. We're targeting a final investment decision in the second quarter of this year and in service in 2030. We're in the process of finalizing our commercial terms that will be largely consistent with the typical contracted Pembina infrastructure project including a 20-year agreement backed by investment-grade counterparty. The other major heartland opportunity I want to talk about is petrochemical supply. Pembina already has a leadership position in C2+ extraction, transportation and fractionation, including as a leading supplier of ethane in Alberta. Looking forward, we have a 50,000 barrel per day ethane supply agreement with Dow and the proposed yellow head extraction plan is 1 of the ways we can support that commitment while also creating incremental value from associated C3+ production. This is attractive. It combines a visible customer need with broader system benefits across extraction, transportation, fractionation and marketing. So -- what does it all look like within our broader growth funnel? This slide ties together the growth path we've outlined today with identified opportunities. Between sanctioned projects and projects under development, Pembina has a visible pipeline of opportunities to support our 5% to 7% fee-based EBITDA per share growth target through 2030, that includes capture opportunities, which are growing and strengthening our franchise and premier resource plays with pipeline processing and fractionation expansions -- it includes extending our core commodities to higher-value markets via connect projects such as Cedar and export optimization, and it also includes catalyzing demand by developing new demand platforms in the markets where we operate, including projects such as Greenlight and Yellow bed. This morning, we're very focused on 2030 for the purposes of this financial outlook update. However, continuing our history of building businesses and capitalizing on the opportunity in front of us across policy markets and our capabilities, we have built a project backlog that extends beyond 2030. The projects I've spoken about today are investments in growth platforms that support growth to and beyond 2030. We're investing around the best resources, highest growth and most meaningful durable trends in the energy sector. Specifically, we continue to see the potential for additional optionality across cedar optimization and expansion, further gas to power, additional basin debottlenecks and carbon infrastructure in the future. To be clear, we do not need all of these opportunities to deliver on our 2030 growth targets that we've shared today. But it does reinforce our confidence that Pembina's growth runway extends beyond the projects directly in front of us. . With that, I'll turn the call over to Cam to review our financial level.

Thanks, Chris. You've heard today about our strategy the operating foundation that supports it and the portfolio of projects poised to deliver continued long-term low risk per share growth. I want to focus on the financial framework that underpins all of that. Growth is only valuable if it's pursued with discipline. Our objective is not simply to grow. It's to grow in a way that strengthens the franchise, maintains our financial guardrails, supports the dividend and enhances value. Foundational to our strategy and by extension our long-term outlook is capital allocation. The key message is consistency and discipline, backed by a long track record of doing what we say we'll do. First, in our capital allocation hierarchy is balance sheet strength. This is anchored in maintaining a strong BBB rating, which we have done now for 13 consecutive years. We are 1 of only 5 North American midstream peers without a negative rating action in the last 10 years. Our disciplined and prudent approach to leverage anchored in a target range of 3.5 to 4.25x proportionally consolidated senior debt-to-EBITDA has served us well historically. It has afforded us the ability to fund growth manage risk and seize attractive opportunities when they arise. The second priority is our dividend, which is the foundation of Pembina's investment proposition. Our objective is to deliver sustainable, reliable and growing dividends. Our track record here is very strong, 4% compound annual growth over the last 25 years, and we've never cut our dividend. Third, we deploy accretive growth capital. We invest in projects that align with our strategy, enhancing capabilities, extending our franchise, diversifying the business and increasing the duration of our cash flows. Projects must fit our risk appetite framework and generate returns which create economic value commensurate with the risk. Importantly, accretive growth capital must always compete against other discretionary uses based on risk-adjusted returns. Finally, we consider discretionary capital. This includes debt reduction, share repurchases or incremental dividends. We make this allocation decision after evaluating the risk-adjusted returns of all potential uses considering internal and external inputs. For example, we may choose to retire debt when interest rates rise or repurchase shares when there is a dislocation in the markets. We've done all of these in recent years and remain disciplined to allocating capital where it drives the highest value for investors. A moment ago, I talked about accretive growth capital within our allocation priorities. The message here is that we have a track record of accretive capital deployment with a low-risk underpinning, and we expect that to continue. Between 2021 and 2025, Pembina's adjusted EBITDA grew by over $850 million. Over that same period, capital and service increased by nearly $6 billion. Using simple return on invested capital math, the return on that capital was 14.3% in 2025. This implies a 7x EBITDA to capital multiple. Equally important is the cash flow quality. In 2025, Pembina's business was 90% fee-based with the vast majority of that being low risk, take-or-pay or cost of service cash flows. Looking forward, the projects that you've heard about today reflects more of the same, both in terms of risk and returns. Build multiples across the sanctioned and underdeveloped portfolio vary by project type, however, average approximately 7x. The cash flow composition in 2030 is similar to today, demonstrating our consistent approach to risk. We prioritized projects with 1 or more of the following attributes: being adjacency to our existing footprint, strong customer pull, durable contractual support attractive capital efficiency and a clear strategic fit within our integrated value chain. The project portfolio includes a mix of brownfield opportunities, system debottlenecks and selective greenfield developments. Importantly, our footprint often helps us drive greenfield projects to generate higher brownfield-like returns through integration. Our strategy and the execution component discussed today support compound annual fee-based EBITDA per share growth of 5% to 7% from 2026 to 2030. Fee-based EBITDA per share captures the performance of our core business and helps normalize the year-to-year variability of our price-exposed marketing business. Starting from the midpoint of our 2026 guidance, the first building block to 2030 is higher utilization and volume growth across our existing assets plus the contribution from approximately $5 billion of sanctioned projects. Together, we expect these pieces to add between $650 million and $700 million in additional fee-based adjusted EBITDA over the period. generating approximately 4% compound annual growth from this compare loan. It's important to note that our margin assumptions for existing assets in this outlook are conservative. We can deliver this plan with only a fraction of the per unit margin growth we've achieved in the recent years. Our recent and sustained commercial and contracting success, which Jared spoke of earlier, supports this outlook. The second component is approximately $5 billion of projects under development, including opportunities such as the Nipisi expansion, the Alliance regional expansion, green light, yellow head and other developing projects. Including these projects takes our compound annual growth rate up to 6% by 2030. Keeping in mind, 2030 incorporates only a partial year contribution from the Greenlight project, so the benefit extends beyond that horizon. It is also worth clarifying our expectations around the shape of this outlook, which is influenced by customer activity and the time lines of our projects. Based on our current expectations, we forecast growth to be concentrated in the 2028 to 2030 period and therefore, at or above the 5% to 7% level in that time frame. Conversely, we expect growth below the 5% to 7% level in 2027. This profile is primarily informed by the timing of our sanction project portfolio. As we showed back on Slide 17, a assets in service increased by roughly $1.4 billion in 2026, then another $1.1 billion in 2027 and then another $2.9 billion in 2028. The projects in our underdevelopment grouping are by nature also concentrated in the 2029 to 2030 time frame. The final component reflects additional organic and inorganic opportunities that we expect to emerge as we move through the period. Our track record has demonstrated that there is inherent option value in our business, and we have consistently seen new opportunities emerge as we move through the years in our long-range planning horizon. Lastly, -- because we are speaking to per share growth, share count also matters. Our base plan does not assume any share buybacks in this period. But with that said, in our capital allocation framework, buybacks remain an option for residual cash flow. Growth capital, including additional organic and inorganic opportunities will always be evaluated against buybacks in service of the highest risk-adjusted returns to investors. Up to now, we focus mostly on our fee-based business, but it's also important to recognize the role of marketing in our business model. Marketing is an important value-enhancing overlay across our integrated business. It helps us to optimize our assets, improve customer and proprietary product netbacks and enable growth of our infrastructure. Our goal is to create asymmetric upside in our business through marketing and our commercial approach is oriented that way. Finally, marketing offers a strategic hedge to our fee-based business, allowing us to mitigate or benefit from temporary or transitory market dislocations. Today, our marketing business has 3 core components: being crude, Western Canadian NGLs and U.S. NGLs. In the future, we see additional upside as system volumes grow and we have more volumes to market as new projects come into service such as Cedar and as legacy commercial arrangements evolve, including the post 2030 expiry of the third-party marketing agreement at Aux Sable. Over the past 3 years, we have seen a variety of market conditions and the results reflect that. As the heat map shows, 2024 saw exceptional performance as most business drivers were in line or above 5-year averages. By comparison, our 2026 guidance reflected the mirror opposite with most drivers in line or below 5-year averages. While the focus of today is very much about the long-term outlook, it would be a miss to not acknowledge the world events of the moment and their impact on commodity markets. As it remains difficult to predict the longevity of the conflict in Iran and the follow-on implications, it's premature to formally reanchor our 2026 marketing outlook today. That said, based on the prevailing forward prices, it's clear the outlook has improved meaningfully from our original 2026 guidance. We've also taken advantage of this pricing environment to layer in additional hedges for 2026 over the last 5 weeks and raised the floor on our 2026 outlook. As it stands today, our 2026 frac spread exposure is now 65% hedged at a weighted average price of $35.41 per barrel. In funding this growth, growth, our approach is straightforward. We live within our means. At our 2024 Investor Day, we committed to fund $4 billion of capital investment with cash flow, and we are on track to deliver on that commitment. Looking forward, our philosophy is consistent from 2026 to 2030 we expect to generate between $16.5 billion to $18 billion in total cash flow from operating activities. After funding a growing dividend, we have roughly $7 billion to $8 billion of cash flow available to invest or roughly $1.5 billion per year on average. This matches very well with the roughly $7 billion of remaining capital to be invested in our sanctioned and under development projects. The outcome is a program, which delivers 6% per share growth on a self-funded basis with a strong balance sheet and leverage below current levels in all cases. Outcome of an already strong balance sheet and self-funded growth is that we grow and our leverage metrics strengthen further. Alternatively, we can access incremental debt while remaining squarely within our target leverage range, roughly $3 billion in this outlook. This debt capacity stands available to fund other organic and inorganic opportunities as they become available. taking us to the upper end of the growth target of 7%. Just as importantly, the stage nature of the capital program helps us manage execution, timing and financing needs over the period. Finally, no discussion about financial policy at Pembina would be complete without reviewing our financial guardrails. Since pioneering them in 2016, the guardrails have served as Pembina's risk parameters for executing strategy. Again, the message is simple and straightforward. Our track record informs the future. the guardrails have remained intact, unchanged and without exception since 2016. So to wrap up, let me just repeat. As with many things you've heard today, we do what we say, and our track record shows it. And with that, I will turn the call back to Scott.

Thanks, Cam. Let me close with a few final observations. Pembina enters the close of this decade from a position of strength. We have a durable core business, a differentiated integrated platform, a visible growth path and a disciplined financial framework. We are operating in a basin with improving fundamentals and expanding market access. We have projects already moving into service, projects under development that extend the franchise and additional opportunities beyond that. Most importantly, we have a track record of executing well. Pembina's value proposition is straightforward and disciplined. We execute our 3C strategy, capture, connect and catalyze to deliver sustainable growth and long-term value for shareholders. We capture advantaged resource opportunities and to strengthen our core business. We connect those commodities to premium coast-to-coast markets through a fully integrated value chain and we catalyze new demand platforms in the markets where we operate. How we do this matters. We lead with operational excellence, industry-leading project execution and a clear consistent risk appetite. We maintained strong financial guardrails, innovate how we work with customers and pursue both organic and inorganic growth, always with discipline. The result is a resilient low-risk business model. We generate visible fee-based EBITDA per share growth, fund accretive projects within cash flow and rely on long term, predominantly take-or-pay contracts. And importantly, we have a proven track record of delivering projects on time and on budget. That's what gives us confidence in Pembina's ability to continue creating value through cycles and why we believe Pembina remains a compelling long-term investment. Thank you for your time. And with that, we'll move to Q&A. Operator, please go ahead and open up the line for questions.

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Aaron MacNeil with TD Cowen.

First 1 is on the sort of unsanctioned growth projects. And I could appreciate the big puzzle piece is Greenlight. And I know in your prepared remarks, you mentioned you don't need all of them to go ahead, but the regional expansion of Alliance is sort of related. Yellowhead sort of needs to go ahead if you satisfy the Dow commitment and if you assume sort of higher utilization and volume growth, it's also likely that Taylor to Gord Nail goes ahead as well. So is it fair to assume that most of these projects under the under development bucket go ahead? And maybe to ask a bit differently, what sort of foundational to the guide? And what would you sort of characterize as optional?

Aaron, it's Cam here. Let me start and invite my peers to pile in afterwards. I think it's a fair question and a good 1 in the sense that clearly, first of all, we've presented a range for that bucket of the projects under development between $0.40 and $0.65 a share on a fee-based EBITDA per share basis. When we look at that project portfolio, and you've highlighted them, obviously, there are some projects where we are more advanced in kind of the execution time line. If I think about where we are on Greenlight today relative to, say, a potential Nipisi expansion, we're probably further along there. Likewise, you do acknowledge that some of those projects are related in some way, shape or form. I would say, obviously, that we started off with the bottom end of that foundation to reflect -- and obviously, you take the bottom end of that foundation to get to the 5%, which we've anchored at the bottom end. We do have a high degree of confidence that we will achieve those types of projects. Obviously, they're not sanctioned today, and we wanted to distinguish between those and the ones that obviously are sanctioning in execution. But if we didn't have a degree of confidence around at least that bottom and moving forward, we wouldn't be including that. So I do think we see that.

Okay. Fair enough. Obviously, I see the spend profile and as you noted, Cam, a lot of the in-service dates are towards the end of the period, can you give us a bit more detail in terms of where you calculate peak leverage? And can you say a bit more about what you think about marketing performance over the time period as you think about corporate leverage more holistically?

Yes. Happy to, Aaron. So going back, I mean, I think what we see firstly, is we talked about 2026 being sort of the peak spend year for Cedar that informs 1 major data point. And then clearly, as you think about where we move in that range, it obviously has to do with capital and business performance to state the obvious. I would say right now that when we look forward to this profile, you heard me say that we deleverage in each year through the end of the profile relative to current -- and I think that's probably pretty straightforward and intuitive. When we look forward to 2027, 2027, is another significant year of Cedar spend, albeit lower than 2026 and we're incorporating new projects. So you could conceivably see leverage kind of at similar levels to 2026 -- in 2027, potentially moving up slightly in our target range, recognizing, of course, we've talked historically for a long time about that target range and a strictness to staying within it. And then I would say as you think about the rest of that implication for 2027, it ultimately comes down to your view on the marketing outlook notwithstanding the strength that we're seeing in the near term in 2026 in the forward prices, there's always backwardation in the curve. And so if you take the forward prices as a given, it is, again, a softer year in comparison to 2026. And so that goes into the leverage calculation. But all that to say, as you start to see 2028 through 2030 come online from those projects, you see significant deleveraging, which obviously gives you the opportunity to deleverage sort of towards or below the bottom end of our target range or obviously, as we presented in this forecast, continue to recycle that back into new investment opportunities and maintain leverage within the lower half of our leverage target range.

Your next question comes from the line of Theresa Chen with Barclays.

Would you expect the FIDs of Greenlight and the Alliance expansion to occur simultaneously or within short order of 1 another and -- as far as additional phases of Greenlight beyond this initial one, would you expect to pursue additional expansions of the lines as well? And in that vein, are there any capacity limitations for Alliance over time that we should keep in mind?

Theresa, it's Chris. Thanks for the questions. The 2 FIDs expect to be proximate to each other but not necessarily on exactly the same time line, they're not necessarily mutually exclusive, although obviously beneficial if we can get that integrated -- as far as future opportunities with Greenlight, which I think was the second part of the question, -- we certainly see the opportunity to do more than Greenlight One. And anything we do beyond here, we'd like to have integrated in the same fashion as we're doing the base plant and the base deal. There ultimately will be limitations on Alliance, but we've got lots of running room. We've got lots of running room there at least through a few phases. So it's not something we're concerned about at this point.

And to the earlier commentary about new markets of focus with head chem in mind, in particular, and tying that into your comments about pursuing integrated and scalable projects what salient data points or thoughts can you share with us at this point about the next phase of for Pembina to serve this end market?

And I assume you're referencing ultimately petrochemical supply. We continue to see the province -- yes, yes, we continue to see the province be belong ethane. We think there's incremental opportunity even beyond what's happening today. obviously, we're very focused in the near term on satisfying the growth rate in front of us with Dow and optimizing our portfolio around not growth. But we think there's potential even beyond that in the future.

Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan Securities LLC.

Just wanted to dive into the guidance a little bit more and see what was baked in for overall volume expectations for the base business, what that growth looks like how that compares to basin growth? And I guess, how you think about Pembina's market share changing over time?

Jeremy, it's Cam here. I'll take a stab at that one. I think a little bit of the theme today was obviously sort of the history in forming the future. And I think if I'm going to answer that question in that vein, I sort of look at our history in terms of the basin growth in that sort of low single-digit type range. And all hands on products, obviously, gas and NGLs versus crude oil in some cases. But when we look back at our history, sort of across the business and so forth, we sort of look at something in the 2% to 3% range on aggregate. And obviously, that varies per business. When you look at our sort of forward look at that, I think we conceivably see something similar across the board. And like we've said in the past, I mean, there are obviously areas where we're running at very high utilizations, and there is opportunity, obviously, should we have more capacity, and we're looking at ways to do that to drive more the natural gas value chain is the clearest 1 in my mind. But there are other areas, obviously, where we have excess capacity and part of what's embedded in this forecast is us obviously increasing utilization, as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, and leveraging that highly accretive -- those highly accretive margin barrels to fill the growth. But that said, I think you can sort of -- if you're trying to understand what's underpinning this growth forecast in terms of sort of a basin level of volume look, it would be a similar growth rate in sort of that low to mid-single-digit level.

Got it. That's helpful. And I just want to come back, I guess, to the builders -- building blocks into potentially 7% in that last bucket there, the other bucket. I was wondering if you might be able to back a little bit more on what that could be and what's, I guess, more likely than not if something were to materialize there.

Yes. Happy to, Jeremy. Again, it's Cam here. And I think a couple of things we pointed out in the prepared remarks, again, we mentioned the sort of the inherent option value that exists in this asset base because of its connectivity, its breadth and its scale. And I think 1 thing I'll point to is if you go through the projects that make up the preceding 2 buckets, what you don't see a lot of there is any opportunities in the gas services bucket. And so I think -- as you've seen the commercial success in that business since we set up PGI in 2022, we've added close to $2 billion of new capital on a gross basis on a PGI basis, so take 60% of that for Pembina's contribution in a 3-year time frame, basically. And so as we look out at a 5-year time frame looking forward, I would say that based on both the opportunities that we have visibility to, and we do have visibility to opportunities, significant opportunities, which are not embedded in any of the preceding buckets as well as just opportunities that we think will come from our connectivity and the ability to serve customers in a different way over the 5-year time frame. That's 1 piece of it. And that could range anywhere from the organic and frankly, the inorganic bucket. The second piece I would say is that when we look at the inorganic piece, obviously, based on the scale of that wedge, it's probably more focused on tuck-in acquisitions, small kind of bolt-on acquisitions. It does feel like there will be opportunities for that in the next 5 years. And the fact of the matter is when you unpack the math on that and any kind of a reasonable return, you really only need about $1.5 billion incremental capital to sort of generate the high end of that range. And frankly, in history based on what I said before, I think that's a readily achievable number for us.

Yes. The only thing I'd add there, Jeremy, is the other thing about that we haven't modeled is upside from new assets coming into service. And we've talked a lot about how you don't get to do brownfield expansions or debottlenecks if you don't start with greenfield. And so when I look out over this time frame, we'll have incremental pipeline capacity, new pipe in the ground will have RPS for Cedar and LPG optimization, all the kind of base economics are in this plan. But history would show you that as we put new assets into service, we find ways to optimize them, as Jaret highlighted, which are generally capital-light and very efficient opportunities. And that that could form part of the 6% to the 7%, but none of that is in the 4% to 6%.

Got it. That's very helpful. And then just to be clear, on the inorganic, we're talking about PGI bolt-ons as opposed to PPL acquiring incremental stake in PGI.

I was referencing, yes, PGI bolt-ons as opposed to incremental acquisition of PGI, correct? .

Your next question comes from the line of Sam [ Burwell ] with Jefferies.

Can you hear me okay? Beautiful. So I just wanted to clarify a few things on the CapEx associated with the second and third buckets -- so like Slide 33 says $5 billion for projects under development, but Slide 36 is something a little bit lower. And I think, Ken, you've spoken to lower numbers. So I mean, is it fair to say that there's like, call it, $2 billion of CapEx associated with the projects under development, and then there's $3 billion that's tied to the future upside opportunities. I'm just trying to get a sense of what the CapEx numbers imply in terms of like a build multiple, especially for the second bucket?

Yes, that's about right, Sam. I think you got to remember, obviously, we're talking about projects between -- they go into service between 2026 and 2030, and obviously, some of the spend has already been incurred for those projects. So we're talking about the full capital stack or full sort of assets and service to try and to laminate the build multiples. But when we talk about the funding picture of what's left to spend, obviously, it's a different number. I think I'd obviously point back to I'd point back to Slide 33, as you referenced, where we look at the portfolios of the sanctioned and the projects under development around the build multiples, sort of both at around 7x. And that reflects, obviously, the totality of the -- both the fee-based but also some of the commodity exposed components where there will be some of those projects, which do have some commodity upside. And obviously, that's aligned in that number as well.

Okay. Understood. And then maybe unpack 1 thing we haven't discussed yet, I don't think the butane value enhancement, is that tied to yellow head? Or is that some other brownfield opportunity? And I guess, just sort of high level, would that be a large or relatively small piece of the project under development bucket?

Sam, it's Chris. Yes, so that's a distinct opportunity from yellowhead -- it's an opportunity to pursue as it says, butane value enhancement. We're pretty simple in the way we think about working our way through the commodity stack -- we've got our strategies and plans for everything all the way from C1 to crude. And this is an opportunity we have to add value to the butane stream and the butane supply that's coming through our facilities today, and we think is certainly going to increase into the future. Right now, we can'tshare any of the specifics around scale or structure just given some of the commercial sensitivities with where we're at on that one. But looking forward to be back in front of you all with more details before launch.

Sam, I'll just sort of point out that the contribution of that to that bucket would be less than 10% or around 10% at most to that individual bucket. So -- there's obviously a whole grouping of projects, which make up that, and it's not a disproportionate share by any means of that grouping.

Your next question comes from the line of Ben Pham with BMO.

I had a question on your selection of duration of guidance. I'm just thinking years back, 2024, you used 2023 as a starting point, but I'm curious just thinking the thought process around the 4-year CAGR guidance. And then similar to why don't you go to 2031 when you only put in potentially half of the contribution of Greenlight.

Yes. I think there's a couple of things there, Ben. The first thing I'd point out is obviously 2026 reflects a bit of a run rate on the business. So obviously, we've got a full year of the Alliance settlement in 2026, and it sort of represents a natural grounding rate. Going back to 2025, for example, starts to cloud that. And so we're really trying to sort of show a same-store sales kind of growth rate. And obviously, as we were thinking about the duration of the growth, we weighed a number of things. One is, I think the inherent message is that -- the fact that we're going out to 2030 demonstrates or as a proof point around the durability and the confidence in the low-risk nature we have in our business. And so of course, there are always uncertainties in any 5-year planning horizon. But as you heard multiple times from us today, we're really big on doing what we say. And so we have a high degree of confidence that both our ability to sort of continue our commercial success but also the assumptions that we're embedding in this outlook are highly achievable. And so that gives us a high degree of confidence. I think as we start to get out beyond that 2020 time frame, it's obviously always a balance between the visibility we have within the core business. and the tailwind or the benefit from sort of new capital. And so we weighed out, we thought that 2030 was ultimately a very competitive time horizon and we were capturing much of the projects that we have in our visibility today, balancing the right level of sort of longevity with certainty.

Maybe just to also add 1 point, Ben, which you point out, which may be lost in this analysis is you're right. It only has a half year of Greenlight. If you'd actually annualize Greenlight for 2030, it's about another 40 to 50 basis points.

Okay. Got it. And maybe the detail question. You mentioned a place order for $5 billion of projects under development in the guide. Is there a portion then of that? I would think like part at Greenlight that -- how much of that is not contributing to your guidance through 2030. I would think of apportion benefits post 2030 time frame?

Everything with the exception of Greenlight hits run rate by the time we get to 2030.

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Catellier with CIBC Capital Markets.

Thank you for the presentation in particular, the long-term growth outlook here. You've answered most of my questions on the project side. I'm just curious about the execution. In particular, it looks like we can enter a period, where maybe the funding volatility is increasing, and I would argue even the EPC cost risk increasing. So -- maybe you could just walk through that, what you're thinking in terms of your approach to risk management projects, including the use of EPC some contracts and where you see the pricing for those item?

Maybe I'll break it down into just a couple of buckets. So when Cam -- when we talk about kind of our base execution of pipeline expansions, gas plants through PGI fractionation complex type infrastructure we think we have fairly great positive partnerships with contractors here in Western Canada that can execute all of that, and we don't see a lot of material pricing increases in that space with other ongoing projects in Western Canada. When you start talking about the EPC lump sums, it definitely is specific to the types of work you're doing under those lump sums, -- for example, the 2 large ones that we've been talking about right now would be Cedar LNG facility and then also Greenlight. We won't get into the specifics of the types of risk profile that those organizations are taking. But what I would say is there's a hunger out there for organizations to enter the Canadian market specifically in Alberta to be working with organizations like ourselves be building those. So long story short, we're seeing people to be able to step up and yes, I'm not hunger to work with us.

So if I can summarize, you really haven't changed your approach to how and when to use EPC and you haven't yet seen cost increases or you're confident there?

Correct.

Correct. Yes. And then last question for me. You mentioned bolt-on acquisitions, which I think you have a long history of that, but you also have a history of more significant acquisitions along the way. So clearly, your growth outlook here doesn't need it, but I'm curious about what your appetite and outlook is for maybe a more substantial M&A.

Rob, I guess I'd just go back to the fact that we're obviously highlighting the potential for bolt-on acquisitions in our framework. I think as you our strategy. Obviously, it's a very complete strategy around the 3 Cs and the integration with the existing business. I don't think we see any holes today in our business. Obviously, it's our job to look at opportunities to enhance our business, and we will always look at the opportunities to enhance our business if we see them. But obviously, as you've mentioned, what's embedded in this forecast, which we believe is a very competitive growth profile, obviously, with a lot of low-risk components to it does not include any major M&A.

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Hope with Scotiabank.

I wanted to dive a little bit deeper into the projects under development. I appreciate the incremental clarity on Q2 or the reiteration that Greenlight will be sanctioned in -- maybe moving over to the Yellowhead extraction plant, what hurdles are remaining for this facility given the fact that it does look like the customer commitments are are secured there? Like would you need to be sanctioning this in 2026 to hit that 2029 service date?

It's Chris. Thanks for the question. So I mean, the hurdles with this 1 are pretty consistent with traditional Pembina project hurdles, right? We continue to progress the engineering. We need to be comfortable with exactly where that's -- we need to be comfortable with all the commercial items. It's progressing nicely. I'm certainly optimistic that we'll have it formalized an FID in '26 for sure.

All right. And then maybe a broader question. As you were revisiting your strategy, -- did you take a look at other geographies? Or do you think you have enough runway in Western Canada to keep you busy beyond 2020 or 2030, sorry?

Rob, it's Scott here. When we looked at our strategy, we absolutely took a North American view. I mean, I think based on the materials you see today, it's not really about regions. I mean North America has continued to be an integrated hydrocarbon value chain. So we absolutely did, especially from today versus 4 years ago with 100% of Alliance Okabe, we obviously have more interest in the U.S. in terms of assets. And so that form part of the strategy. I would say based on this plan out to 2030 to deliver, you can tell that it's clearly Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin driven. But as we look out kind of beyond 2030, we do see opportunities in the U.S. as well.

Your next question comes from the line of Patrick Kenny with NBCF.

I appreciate the presentation. just on the build multiple range and the average of 7x being maintained going forward. But with a pretty wide range there of 4 to 10 on the project. I was just wondering what types of opportunities you would consider sanctioning -- or I guess what sort of attributes you would need to see in order to go ahead with an investment with perhaps a double-digit build multiple?

Sorry, Pat, it's Cam here. Are you talking about the sort of the under development projects or just sort of beyond that group?

Yes, it could be basically within the unsanctioned bucket. It appears as though it could be anywhere from 4 to 10x. So I'm just kind of curious as to how those projects would stack up in terms of investment attributes and what you'd need to see in order to sanction at the higher end of that range going forward?

Yes, I got it. Sorry. Thanks for I mean I think 1 thing that we've talked about throughout this presentation today is the concept of risk-adjusted returns. And so obviously, we look at things on that basis. I think, obviously, you can see if you want to use Cedar as sort of a litmus test or an example on this. The risk-adjusted returns on a purely contracted basis for Cedar are obviously at the higher end of that range. And I would say that reflects the parameters that it's a 20-year facility with cost protection, both on the capital cost, but also on the operating costs, and it comes with investment-grade counterparties obviously, to a high demand market. So we would see that as a very low-risk project. Similarly, obviously, that's a greenfield type project. And so those facilities by nature, tend to have on average, higher build multiples. That said, we also have the ability to integrate those facilities down the line longer term and also capture some upside as we've done on SEDAR. And so I think we have the ability to bring those types of return profiles down closer to the average in time, which -- whether it would be our history with acquisitions or with greenfield projects we've always endeavored to do that. And I think that would be -- if you want to think about what conditions would sort of lead us to sanction capital with those kinds of returns, it would be that. One would be extremely low risk, but also the ability with time to bring those multiples down through integration.

Okay. That's super helpful. And then I guess within the Connect bucket of future growth opportunities, I wonder if you guys could provide just a bit more color on the other LNG and LPG export opportunities? I know it's probably early days for both. But just wanted to get a better sense of what your vision looks like for your LNG and LPG export platforms longer term in terms of size, scale and even location if possible?

It's Chris. Thanks for the question. Maybe I'll break it down into a few areas around the specific items listed on the slide. But first and foremost, you know that not a small where we can share specific details, but it's really no secret. The market is calling for more of those products off the West Coast, our federal government, provincial governments, everyone's aligning behind trying to make that happen, and we've got existing positions there today, both in LNG and LPG, LNG, obviously, under construction, LPG and service. So when we think about Cedar LNG optimization, they got referenced earlier when Jaret was talking about some of the economics. We have the opportunity to potentially put additional cargoes through that facility. And so there's some optimization through incremental gas vis-a-vis that construct. Obviously, we're interested in expanding Cedar to the extent that's possible. That's in the works. We're working out the details of how that might be able to happen and then very interested in other opportunities off the West Coast. We think we've got a tremendous base to build off of there, both from stakeholder relationships as well as included in that our customer relationships we built through Cedars, so we're looking to build off of that. Very similar story on LPG export. We don't think the LPG export story is done. On the West Coast, and we continue to pursue those opportunities.

Your next question comes from the line of Praneeth Satish with Wells Fargo.

I guess if I look at Page 34 of the deck, the fee-based EBITDA is growing from $3.9 billion in 2026 to $5.2 billion in 2030. So that implies a 7.1% CAGR. So just trying to reconcile that with the 5% to 7% long-term growth target and just make sure we're interpreting the numbers correctly.

Yes. Sure, Praneeth. Great question. It's Cam here again. I think when we think about building up that range, we sort of think about -- if you're very right, if you were to take the high end of each of those bars. So you take the midpoint of 2026, you had $1.20 you had the $0.65 and you add the $0.30. That obviously gets you to 7%. Recognizing that it's a plan. And as we said earlier in this presentation, there are -- there are some things which were more or less advanced on or have more or less visibility to today, we wanted to present a range. And so if you look at the bottom end of those ranges in each bar. So the $6.76, the $1.10 to $0.40, that actually gets you to the 5%. I think what we're ultimately trying to communicate with that is that -- we have a lot of certainty around achieving a 5% growth rate through that, and we have very good visibility to achieving both of which we think are quite compelling in the construct of the market today.

Got you. Now that's helped the alliance open season. So it looks like it's 350 million cubic feet per day. So on paper, that's larger than a 900-megawatt data centers, probably 110 MMcf per day of gas needs. So [indiscernible] slide deck on Page 34. Can we assume that the combined project, which would be Greenlight and the Alliance expansion kind of fits in that 7x build multiple range that you're targeting?

I'll take the first part of that question, then maybe hand it over to Cam. Chris mentioned earlier in 1 of the questions around the runway that we have on the Alliance pipeline. This -- you pointed out the $350 million. That does give us incremental runway to do more than the roughly 900 megawatts, but it also is just in the overall methane demand in and around the Alberta industry Heartland continues to grow. So it's not just Greenlights, other gaster power, there is other industrial demand that is in behind that.

And Praneeth, just to address your second question. What I would say firstly is that the commercial negotiations on that project or both of those are sort of not sort of formally buttoned down at this point. So forgive me for the way I answer this. But I guess what I would say is that obviously, those projects do make up a meaningful part of that under development portfolio and obviously do influence that. I think we've long talked about those -- that type of opportunity sort of in a typical midstream like build multiple or return kind of framework. So I'll sort of put those 2 data points together for you. And obviously, the math sort of has to work a certain way, but I think it's probably pretty consistent with what we said historically.

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Scott Burrows, CEO, for closing remarks.

Well, thank you, everybody. Thank you for your time today, and we look forward to continuing the discussion. Have a great day. .

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.