Pinewood Technologies Group PLC (PINE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
September 29, 2020
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
William Berman
executiveWe're ready to take whatever questions you have. Milly, could you please take care of that for us?
Operator
operatorSure thing. Let's go now to a question from James Winckler at Jefferies.
James Winckler
analystMind if I jump in with a quick question about July-August trading? I suppose what I'm really getting at — and it's maybe less a hard numbers question — is this: how much would you say those periods got a lift from pent-up demand, from people who clearly couldn't buy vehicles while the lockdown was on? And does that factor into how you think about where your internal expectations for the full year or next year end up?
William Berman
executiveJames, Bill here. We didn’t really break down how much of July and August came from demand, whether that was for new vehicles and PCPs maturing or whether it was in after-sales, in areas like MOTs and so on. That said, there was solid demand in the marketplace. We were still seeing some of that. It’s lower now than when we first came out of lockdown, but we definitely think that will have some effect as we go into the fourth quarter. September trading has been strong. We have good order take that will carry into October, perhaps the early part of November. Some of that is driven by consumers, and some is driven by OEMs and the challenges with their own supply lines and the availability of certain model lines in inventory, but we feel pretty good about that. But that isn’t a forever thing. And we’ve set up our business to sit here, and while taking advantage of that, to be able to operate at a high level once that has kind of worked its way through the system.
James Winckler
analystSure. And then can I ask about the timing of that 25% discount over 3 months? Which 3-month period was it — when were those discounts given?
Mark Willis
executiveYeah. I mean, James, that was obviously offered during the pandemic to help the businesses of our good customers through that period, much like the support we saw from some of the relationships we have. So that discount period has now ended.
William Berman
executiveYeah. And James, one thing we did is our costs came down during that stretch as well. So it didn't really have a material — a huge impact on us then either, though.
Mark Willis
executiveSo technically, that discount window ran across April, May, and June — those 3 months. As for when they actually pay the recurring charges, we'll see a modest cash effect spilling into Q2, but the discount itself was available during April, May, and June.
James Winckler
analystRight, yes, that's correct. I was simply asking because, if that implies a 25% blow to the top line and software across 3 months, then for the half that works out to a 12.5% headwind. So I'm asking whether it's right to view the underlying business — leaving discounts aside — as still growing at roughly high single digits if you weren't discounting during a typical period.
Mark Willis
executiveYeah, that seems about right, honestly. We've consistently cited a compound annual growth rate for Pinewood of 8%, 9% over the past several years, and in our strategy we've discussed the current order pipeline out there that supports continuing that growth. Really, 2 factors were at play during the period. One is obviously the discount that was given. The second is the revenue we receive for trade unit installations. So those were halted too during the period, given the various lockdowns around the globe. But none of those things, as we see it for Pinewood, strike us as permanent.
Operator
operator<<operator_script>> Our next question comes from Sanjay Vidyarthi at Liberum.
Sanjay Vidyarthi
analystThis one's for Bill, if you don't mind. Under the prior leadership, I'd say the culture at Pendragon was arguably unlike what you'd find at other big retailers. My impression is there was perhaps an emphasis on pulling decision-making away from the managers in the dealerships, centralizing operations, leaning on algorithms wherever feasible, and generally stripping empowerment from people. So how do you see the culture developing now, Bill? And what's your vision for the culture and for the operational team you'd like to have in place?
William Berman
executiveYes. So, Sanjay, there's no way for me to discuss the past. All I can address is what Mark and I have been doing since we began working together at the end of last year and continuing through this year. And our aim is to have a far more collaborative relationship across our various business units — in how we present the vision out there and how we go out there and execute the play. So for me, it's sort of a partnership, an ebb and flow. Some decisions belong at a store level. Certain ones belong at an NFD or MD level, and then other matters belong perhaps at Mark's level or mine. But when Mark and I are the ones deciding, I'll make certain I've gone the entire way down the chain and grasped what the needs are all the way down — from a valet all the way up to the head of business, to the NFD, to the MD, to myself. And the same applies when it flows the other direction. So I'm certain it will differ from how things were previously, but it's going to be far more collaborative.
William Berman
executiveUltimately, winning is what matters most. The way I see it, Mark and I are the ones calling the play, and the store's role is to get out there and carry it out at the highest level achievable.
Sanjay Vidyarthi
analystSo, is there any shift happening in how staff incentives are structured?
William Berman
executiveYeah. I’d rather not go too deep into that, but we’ve made quite a few changes to the incentive programs. We began with upper management, and then the heads of business placed a lot more emphasis on individual performance inside their business units and on pushing toward the targeted number. That number has been set by the company overall, and we’ll keep doing those kinds of things.
Sanjay Vidyarthi
analystAll right. Does that also cover anything on the customer service side? Or is that a separate matter?
William Berman
executiveCertainly. CSI, along with how the customer is looked after, the needs of the factories, the various KPIs, and the balanced scorecards that get used — all of that always factors in as well. If anything, Sanjay, what we've done is, in some areas of the business — customer interactions and things of that nature — we've given the stores more sway and handed them greater autonomy and more control over customer interactions than perhaps they had before. They're the ones accountable — they're the ones customers want to deal with. So we're shifting more of that to them and pulling it away from centralization. And in the same way, we've watched performance improve as a result. But CSI will always remain a major component of that.
Operator
operatorThe next question comes from Mike Allen at Zeus Capital.
Michael Allen
analystI've got two questions, if that's okay. First, regarding the H1 gross margin for used cars — clearly, residuals are behaving very differently right now, with a strong year-on-year increase. How should we think about the normalized gross margin? Should we assume something roughly midway between last year's figure and this year's? Or do you have a sense of it? And my assumption is that residuals growth accounts for most of that uplift, unless I've got that wrong.
William Berman
executiveMike, regarding the first half, residual didn’t really have much to do with it. It was performance-driven above all. We simply didn’t perform well during the first half of last year. So much of our improvement came, again, from how we were able to source inventory, how we stocked it, our turn rates, how we priced, and how we managed our used vehicle inventories overall — the first half was mainly driven by those factors. Looking ahead, you’re probably right. It sits somewhere in the middle, but one thing, Mike — you’re going to hear us discuss not only margin but also PVR and GPU. The particular challenge with used vehicles is that margins don’t carry through entirely. You don’t earn the same margin percentage on a GBP 30,000 car as you do on a GBP 10,000 car. And you can actually earn a higher margin on lower-end vehicles, or lower-priced vehicles, than on a higher one. So you’ll hear us talk about GPUs too, but the systems, the processes, the way we run the business, and the things we’re developing and putting in place are designed to drive volume, drive high margin, and drive a high turn rate.
William Berman
executiveAs a result, our inventory turns quickly with very, very little aging, which produces the greatest sales volume at the best margin we can achieve.
Michael Allen
analystYeah. And just a second question. I mean, nobody's giving guidance right now. But if I look at the H1 numbers and sort of strip out the lockdown effect from COVID, where we might get GBP 13 million to GBP 15 million of profit in the first half and perhaps the same or a bit more including September, a normalized level of PBT, assuming no lockdown, I appreciate is in the forecast. But just given where you are on cost savings, et cetera, is GBP 35 million, GBP 40 million kind of a good endpoint as a target over the next 12 months, obviously just withstanding any unique factors including the pandemic? Is that a kind of normalized run rate to aim for over the shorter term?
Mark Willis
executiveYeah, I think that's a genuinely interesting question. And of course, we haven't issued guidance, for every reason you just mentioned. With whatever the market does in Q4, things are difficult right now. But definitely, every metric you highlighted regarding where we estimate we were operating before the pandemic — clearly Q3 looks like it will be quite strong, and we know we were profitable in Q4 last year. So when you bring all of that together, I believe consensus pre-pandemic stood at GBP 20 million. We felt comfortable against that figure and maybe even saw ourselves beating it as we traded through the first couple of months and what we observed in June. There's definitely the question Bill has already addressed about how much of Q3 is real. Our take on that is that a great deal of the year-on-year benefit comes from cost reduction. That's somewhat more within our control than the market is, so that pleases us. And when we think about Q4 versus last year, obviously, we've mentioned a GBP 37 million cost saving, which at a run rate of roughly GBP 3 million a month provides GBP 9 million of protection against last year.
Mark Willis
executiveSo Mike, I'd say overall, the GBP 20 million consensus was something we felt good about. And from that time, we've made some pretty aggressive cost moves because that's the right thing for the business. So I'll let people reach their own conclusions. But certainly, the figures you brought up there would be, all else being equal, how Bill and I will be thinking about the business.
Operator
operatorAll right, that seems to wrap up the Q&A portion of today’s call. I’ll hand things back over to Bill for any closing remarks.
William Berman
executiveThanks, Milly, and thanks to all of you for being with us on this call. Mark and I want to express our appreciation to every one of our associates for the effort they put in throughout lockdown — for everything they managed to accomplish in that period and the way they came through it. Ultimately, having thoughts and ideas is the simple part; making them happen is difficult, and our team has delivered at an extremely high standard. Thanks to all of you.
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