Prada S.p.A. (1913) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining the Prada Group 9 Months 2024 Revenue Update. I'm delighted to be with you again, and with me today is our group CEO, Andrea Guerra. We will start with some remarks and then move to Q&A. Before we start, please be reminded that during today's call, we may discuss forward-looking statements which are subject to risks, uncertainties and factors beyond our control, and the actual outcome and returns may differ materially from such statements. Please refer to the disclaimer included in Slide 2 of our presentation. And with that, I will hand over to Andrea Guerra.

Good afternoon to all of you. We are pleased to report another solid quarter, from a quantitative and a qualitative point of view, again, consisting of branding, image and cultural positioning of our Prada and Miu Miu brand. Our 9 months ended up 18% on a like-for-like basis, with Prada plus 4%, and Miu Miu plus 97%. For sure, we have been trailing a more complicated quarter, I would say, more for the industry, with some weeks in specific regions of the world, i.e., China, Prada dynamism and desirability has again long roots in creativity and fashion shows, its polyatric brand equity and Luna Rossa high performance in sports, innovation with partnership with Axiom Space and the unveiling of the space suit developed for NASA. Prada is and Prada continues in the long term to constantly and positively carve a cultural landscape in our society. I think this long-term trajectory of Prada will continue to pay off. On the other side, Miu Miu positioning and very distinctive identity nowadays is very clear and liked by the global audience today. We're growing fast, but always keep in mind that on absolute terms, numbers are not so big. We're very proud of the trajectory, and very proud about the unique energy of our Miu Miu team. We're working really day and night to keep up with the expectations. This 9 months for our 2 brands have really been a journey, and a journey of constant solid work, positive energy and the results are paying off. Andrea, I will now hand over to you for some more details.

Thank you, Andrea. Starting with net revenues by channel. In total, the group recorded net revenues of EUR 3.8 billion in the first 9 months of the year, up 18% against the same period last year at constant FX. The performance was driven by high-quality retail growth sustained by like-for-like full price volumes. The third quarter confirmed a consistent and solid growth trajectory, with retail sales up 18%, notwithstanding a more challenging environment. Wholesale was up 9% versus the same period last year, and up 11% in the third quarter. We kept our approach selective with independents, while we continue to see sustained growth in the DFS channel. On royalties, the quarter saw solid growth of plus 16% as the business continued to enjoy good demand for both Eyewear and Fragrances. Exchange rates had a negative impact on group revenue of around 3 percentage points during the first 9 months. Turning to the next slide, retail sales by brand. We're pleased with Prada and Miu Miu's performances as both brands continue to register above-market growth. Prada delivered plus 4% growth in the 9 months, driven by full price like-for-like sales, and the third quarter continued to show a positive performance at plus 2%, demonstrating the brand's resilience against sector headwinds. Miu Miu confirmed its remarkable trajectory, delivering outstanding growth in the 9 months at plus 97%, including Q3 at plus 105%. Growth was well spread across all regions and categories. As a result, the brand contribution to the group retail sales increased to 25%, against 15% in the same period of last year. Moving to the next slide, retail sales by geography. Asia Pacific progressed well over the first 9 months at plus 12%. Growth continued to be up double digit in Q3, stable at plus 12%, despite the more challenging dynamics in the region. Europe was up 18% in the 9 months. We continued solid growth of plus 18% in the third quarter as well, supported by healthy local demand and tourist spending. In the Americas, retail sales were up plus 8% in the 9 months, with Q3 showing a further slight sequential improvement to 10%. Japan continued to deliver outstanding growth, up 53% in the 9 months, driven by solid local demand and strong tourist flows. The third quarter also saw an elevated growth rate of plus 48%, albeit in slight moderation versus Q2. Lastly, Middle East also delivered a solid performance, up 24% in the 9 months, with Q3 in further acceleration versus Q2. And with that, I will hand back to Andrea for some closing remarks. Thank you.

Thank you, Andrea. As you were referring that the world today has different speed in different regions. For sure, we have been pleased, and we are still pleased by our domestic European region. I would call it resilient and dynamic. On the other side of the ocean, an improving North American region with some ups and downs, classic of a pre-election period. In Asia and the Southern Asia and Hong Kong, Macau, I would say that the region has some easier comps from now on, but still tough. It's a region that in the next 3, 6, 9 months, can help a more positive outlook of the region. Japan, being a major market, slowed down a little bit from end of July, but still a great place to be. As we have stated more than once, China is more complicated today, and not necessarily improving in the near future. Having said all of this, we know it, and we will continue to be very agile, constantly reassessing our commercial and financial performance, top and bottom line. We're confident to finish the year, even if we have a high comp quarter in front of us, with a solid and sustainable growth above markets. With this, thank you for having listened to our remarks, and I would open up the floor to your questions and observations, if any. Gracias, I will turn it back to the operator.

[Operator Instructions] We are now going to proceed with our first question. The questions come from the line of Chiara Battistini from JPMorgan.

The first question, please, on the nationalities performance in the quarter and especially by brand, I guess, Miu Miu must not have accelerated across nationalities, but I was wondering on Prada specifically, and the sequential deceleration, whether it was caused by the Chinese consumer or there was anything else on the other nationalities to flag, please?

Hello. So Andrea, I think you can take this question.

Thank you, Chiara. [Foreign Language]. And so on the clusters and leaving aside, as you said, Miu Miu because, of course, the group level trends were very good across all clusters. Prada brand, starting with Chinese. Chinese are low single-digit positive year-to-date and Q3 was a touch softer, low single-digit negative. We saw an improvement over Golden Week, positive, but we've been observing that trading is better around the holiday period. So really no news to report. North America, slightly positive, in line with Q2. Europeans, positive, mid- to- high single digit in Q3 versus low double digit in Q2. And Japanese maintained a very good trend, albeit in moderation versus Q2. We mentioned before, by the way, that looking at the evolution of sales by nationality vis-a-vis also a pre-COVID period, it is more balanced, that's sort of a silver lining. So sales to Europeans and Americans, as a share of total, have increased at the expense of sales to Chinese, as of today.

And the second question is on Miu Miu and this incredible momentum and acceleration you continue to show. I was wondering, anything to call out in terms of what's driving this, in terms of assortment being extended or the marketing coming through, anything really, that you would point out to supporting this momentum? And on the CEO, if there is any update on the replacement of [indiscernible] piece?

In terms of Miu Miu, I think it's now a consequential 4 years that the team decided to head in a certain direction from an image identity, creativity point of view, even with a retail network that also made more sense. So nothing really to report. We are managing the growth and we are rebalancing the mix between products, and we are working, really day and night to make this growth sustainable. So we are really -- I wanted to say relaxed, but you are never relaxed. We are really working to make 2025, '26, '27, a positive trajectory. I always want to remind, even if we have this stellar growth, that the absolute numbers are not big. So we have a journey to do. In terms of the CEO, we are working in a very healthy manner today and this has been for the past years. And I think that in the next 1, 2, 3 months, we will be able to finish up and announce the new CEO.

We are now going with our next question, and the questions come from the line of Louise Singlehurst from Goldman Sachs.

Andrea, I wondered actually if you could just talk to us about -- you've given the commentary about this being a more complicated environment, clearly for the luxury peers. It's just very interesting to you, such phenomenal growth at Miu Miu and then obviously, the slower growth at Prada in this environment. I mean, Andrea, can you share with us how you're thinking about the budgeting and the process as you look into 2025? So Prada with the lower growth, is that more about cost savings at this point? And Miu Miu, is that more about pushing the pedal down for more space expansion into '25 and obviously, '26? That would be really helpful.

So first of all, we are, as usual, comment in the 9 months. But obviously, when you ask in this period of the year, we are working on next year. And the way we close the presentation, which says we are confident with our strategy and to the strength of our brands and organization and remain committed to deliver solid, sustainable award market growth. I think this is -- this says it all, to give you some more details. So first of all, we are very proud of our Prada growth. I mean, if you turn back to the last 1, 2, 3 years, the healthy growth. And we're still on the positive stance. It was not easy, but we were able to achieve it. And I think that we deserve to regain some market share. And I think that this is what is fueling our energy and our motivation every day in all parts of the world. We had and we still have a consumer relationship and retail excellence homework to be done. And I think that, that allows us to be optimistic about our next future. So we think that we can still -- obviously, if the market crashes, no one can do anything. But if this is the environment, I think that we can continue to see a healthier growth compared to market average. This is on the Prada side. On the Miu Miu side, it's time today that we also enlarge a little bit our square meters. We have been on a like-for-like basis on Prada and Miu Miu for the past 2, 3 years mainly. So we are going to enlarge a little bit our square meters, which means most of the times enlarging stores, because landlords wants to give us a little bit more space. And on the other side, beginning to fill some cities and regions where basically, Miu Miu is not present or is not relevant today. So this is how we're moving on 2025. In terms of margins, first of all, I think that what we have shown in the first 6 months, I think we are committed to show it even in the second 6 months in terms of our ability to leverage our costs. And I think, again, we have room to catch up a little bit more even in 2025. Obviously, the two brands are in a different world today. So we need to keep Miu Miu as light as possible. And on the other side, we need to keep Prada as efficient as possible.

We are now going with our next question, and it comes from the line of Chris Huang from UBS.

Congratulations on the results. I have two. I'll start with the first one. I'm focusing on the Prada brand, and Q3 was growing 2%. So can you just provide some thoughts around the margin implications. Assuming that the Prada brand continues to grow at this low single-digit level into Q4, are you able to maintain your margins, given the continued investments you're putting into the brand?

So I will begin answering your questions, then we can ask Andrea, if he wants to give some more details. So with Prada, we have been on a journey of retail excellence, brand investment, store investments. But on the other side, our eye on bottom line, our eye on efficiencies is there. We have room to discover new efficiencies, and we are doing it. So we are trying to keep, as much as balanced as possible, the top line and the bottom line. Always keep in mind, as we always said, that the top line journey is our favorite journey today. But we are, I think ready to deliver a better margin compared to last year, and in a positive trajectory of the H1. Andrea?

Not much to add, also because it's a revenue call, so we won't get into specific margin guidance, but also because, I mean, there's really nothing new or to add to what we said previously. Andrea just reiterated that, that growth remains the priority. And -- but so far, we can add that we are on track to maintain this progressive trajectory on margins as well. The last point I would add is, we have the advantage of being a multi-brand group, as we referenced to before. And considering the performance of Miu Miu, that also means that -- in the impact that it's having on the group margin, that also means that we're able to invest more behind Prada that we would otherwise do if Prada brand was a stand-alone monobrand company. And likewise, Miu Miu would probably not be experiencing this type of growth today if it hadn't been part of a larger group, for -- with the Prada brand driving margin and cash generation and therefore, allowing reinvestments in the previous years.

That's super helpful. And then secondly, on the revenue on the top line. I mean, so far in the Q3 earnings season, we have some of your peers calling out the exit rate in Q3 seem to be a little bit stronger than the quarterly average. So I'm just interested to hear, are you seeing similar trends? And if you can give any early indication on how things are shaping up in October, if there's any further acceleration.

So I would like to stress one fact. October has no meaning in Q4, that is Q4 is made of 45 days from mid-November to end of December. Those are pretty important days. Yes, October had a slight increase. But I mean, to me, has no meaning. If you are satisfied, we can go to the next question. I do not know.

We're now going to proceed with our next question. The questions come from the line of Erwan Rambourg from HSBC.

Congrats on double-digit growth in all regions, quite counterintuitive, given what we're going through. So two questions and maybe a clarification. The first question is you've seen a slight acceleration in the Middle East and in the U.S. And I'm just wondering if this is linked to a particular launch? Or is it the fact that Miu Miu may be a bit late in those markets? Is it something else? And maybe related to that, what are your hopes and fears around the U.S.? I think you mentioned the election making, possibly, some people nervous. But at the same time, equity markets are very strong. How are you thinking about the short term in the U.S.? Second question on the Prada brand. If you can help us understand qualitatively elements of mix versus volume versus price? And maybe linked to that, how do you think about price next year? And then just a clarification, you said October had a slight increase. What do you mean by that? Do we -- should we have in mind that whatever you saw in the first 9 months is consistent with what you've been seeing in October either by brand or by region?

Yes. So let me take the first two, and allow -- and let's leave Andrea to the third one, to your clarification question. In terms of acceleration in Middle East and the U.S., these are two regions where we have taken conscious decisions a year ago to, let me say, sometimes I go a little bit to the extreme, but I wanted to say to restart from scratch in terms of local organizations, local commercial, local retail, local consumer relationship, and we have invested significantly in the last 18 months in those teams. So I think that those two journeys are very important to us because we also want to demonstrate to ourselves that whatever goes on, we can recover some market share that we feel can be ours. So those two markets, I don't want to be optimistic, because it's a critical moment for the industry. But we are seeing those two regions with a different set of eyes compared to the past. In terms of Prada, has been, for sure, China has been the main detractor. If we remove China, we really had a very, very healthy quarter for Prada gain. So I wouldn't go in too much understanding too many details. I think that the positive stance is still there. The brand is incredibly desirable. So no real question marks. I don't think we -- in our internal projections and forecast, I don't think we made mistakes on Q3 in understanding where we would have landed. Andrea, on October, if you want to add and clarify anything?

Yes. On -- so on October, I think the -- again, because getting into the monthly performance, Andrea already said it, that's really very limited value also considering the fact that in China, in particular, October was also positively, I would say, impacted by the Golden Week. So the key takeaway for October should be that we've seen no significant changes in trend vis-a-vis year-to-date and vis-a-vis Q3, because they also have the same growth rate. There was another question around -- I think there's two more. I mean, there was mix and volume and mix, i.e., volume and price and was also then, I think, on U.S., Andrea, probably you'll take that one. On Prada, components drivers of growth because [indiscernible] Miu Miu is contributing significantly on volumes. If we look at Prada, there is both slight volume positive and pricing and mix positive contribution. Andrea, do you want to...

Yes, U.S. is exactly what I said before. I mean, we have heavily invested in our teams in the Middle East, in United States, and this is exactly what I was trying to say before.

We are now going to proceed with our next question, and the questions come from Luca Solca from Bernstein.

The first question is about pricing. There's been a lot of debate on whether the industry has increased prices too much, and whether price increases are one of the reasons why we've seen a more muted consumer demand environment in the second half of the year. I wonder, what's your benefit from price inflation will be in '24 and how you're thinking and reasoning about price increases for next year? This would be my first question. I have another question about products.

So when we look to pricing and to our, let's call it, position, my view on pricing is the following. As Prada, we have not moved all our prices up. But what we are trying to do is to stretch the price range. I think that we are well positioned on entry prices, but we have yet quite a substantial territory in extending the price range upwards. We have always been a little bit too short with our price range. So it means working on the products, working on consumers, we have worked heavily on our retail environment and the opportunity to allow transactions on a more private manner in stores and out of stores. So we feel that we have a, let's call it, price mix effect, that is, yes, we will continue to maintain our price structure with low single digit every 5, 6 months. But on the other side, the real value to us comes in stretching our price range. I think that, that is the real gold mine opportunity we have.

Understood. Andrea, I realize that you're not providing progression by product category, because you consider it's not particularly relevant, yet. I wonder if you could tell us a bit about how, for the two different brands, the key contributors would be or if you see a relatively level contribution from the various product categories for both Prada and Miu Miu?

Yes. So I'll give you a qualitative. In Miu Miu, I'm happy to report that we are moving in a more balanced mix of different product categories, with a, I would say, a final success on leather goods in the past 24, 30 months. First, with the family, second family. I think today, we cover probably the desire of 60% to 65% of our consumer with leather goods or Miu Miu. So happy, and it's a very good balance mixed growth in leather goods of Miu Miu. So I would state it like that for Miu Miu. In Prada, the overall growth of the 9 months has been pretty even. If something was slightly over proportional was leather goods.

I see. And maybe if I could squeeze in a third. I hear you say that you see opportunity for stores to be bigger. I presume when I imply from that, that you're quite...

Talking about Miu Miu [indiscernible]? I was talking about Miu Miu. Okay.

That you're quite happy about retail space productivity for Miu Miu. And I wonder if you could give us an indication on where you stand for both Prada and Miu Miu and whether the gap is now completely or largely been bridged?

When we are talking about stores, I wouldn't say anything special, rather than we need some more space for Miu Miu. In terms of productivity, obviously, it's very easy to see. I mean, all the growth you see is like-for-like. So all of that is productivity increase. So I would put it like that. And on the other side, I think the productivity of Miu Miu during the past 24 months for the retail network we have is limiting a little bit our ability to give a good level of service to our consumers. So this is the reason why we are enlarging a little bit our square meters.

We are now going to take our next question, and the questions come from the line of Chris Gao from CLSA.

Congratulations on the great results. I have two. So firstly, my first question is related to the breakdown of Chinese cluster spending onshore and offshore? And also, can you share a little bit more on your view regarding Chinese tourist spending in Europe, in Japan and other offshore markets? So which part is better than your expectation? And which part do you think is relatively more difficult than others? This is my first question related to Chinese cluster.

Andrea?

Chris, without getting too much into the details, what I'd say is, first, in terms of spend, the split is still roughly 65-35, 65 local and 35 international spend. And with an increasing proportion of spending outside China. The spending remains largely concentrated in Asia, and I would stop there.

Is there a follow-up or another question?

My second question is related to your wholesale channel. We see you have been very strong in your wholesale channel in the third quarter compared with second half. So could we dig deeper into the key reasons behind or any timing difference behind regarding the wholesale outperformance?

I'll take this, Andrea. It's purely timing effect. So no differences, no change in strategy, nothing to be reported.

Okay. So any regions that is substantially like seeing that kind of timing difference? U.S., Europe or what regions?

I wouldn't go into those details.

We are now going to proceed with our next question, and the questions come from Rogelio Fujimori from Stifel.

I was hoping if you could break down the Miu Miu new triple digit growth in Q3 between retail and wholesale? And also wondering if you could provide any qualitative color on the wholesale order book for Miu Miu? And then I was also hoping if you could elaborate on e-commerce trends for the Prada brand in Europe and North America?

Okay. So on -- wholesale is a small percentage of Miu Miu sales. So I don't think it's really a -- it doesn't make sense to give you any more details on that. We are using wholesale to reach certain customers where we don't have a proper retail presence in some U.S. department stores, especially on one category. So I think that there is no change, and there will be no change in strategy in wholesale. So it means that the order book will always be bigger than what we will deliver. In terms of your second question, maybe Andrea can take it?

But also, look, I mean, in terms of e-commerce trends specifically by region, I wouldn't get into that. I mean, we've discussed it previous times that we look at the retail channel as a whole, holistically, and for us is all part of the same customer journey, customer experience as I would just refer to the trends that we've disclosed for retail overall.

We're now going to proceed with our next question from the line of Liwei Hou from CICC.

I have two questions. The first one is on Asia, excluding Japan. So we are one of the few -- actually the only one in the third quarter who have reported double-digit growth in AEJ region. So I wonder how do you attribute this success to operations in AEJ. So is it more because of better China Mainland performance or maybe any other countries in this region that worth highlighting? Yes. This is my first question.

I think has been balanced. And as we were reporting from first minute of this call in the different parts of Asia, from Japan to South Asia, to Hong Kong, Macau, to China, how we're moving. I think that we have already clarified most of it. And obviously, when you're having that kind of growth, what is nice to report is that, it's well balanced between the different regions. And as I said, obviously, China has been a little bit more complicated during this quarter. I mean, we are happy to read and listen to the fact that government is beginning to argue that maybe some help has to be given to the consumer, and we will see what will happen.

That's very helpful. And my second question is on Miu Miu brand. So in my understanding, the success of Miu Miu started in Asia as an epicenter and then it radiates to Europe and then now to the U.S. So I wonder if you could confirm whether that's true in terms of nationality, the pace of growth? And also just a very slight question, are we seeing any male consumers purchasing the Miu Miu products? I understand it's -- it will be very, very minimal, but...

You know, we are observing male consumers, and we're happy to service them and we're seeing them. We're seeing them all across product lines and all across regions. Europe, I would say, I would consider Europe standing out in the Miu Miu performance during 2024. That's the place where we have invested the most in the last 24 months, and it's responding incredibly well. And this is also the place where we are opening some stores and enlarging some stores during 2025. U.S. is still a smaller segment of our business, I would say, very much smaller. And we begin to -- for investing properly in that region. So it will take time, and we are obsessed with Europe today.

We are now going to proceed with the next question, and it is from the line of Charles-Louis Scotti from Kepler Cheuvreux.

Yes. I have two. The first one on Miu Miu and the second one on Prada. On Miu Miu, I'm just curious to hear whether the performance of the brand is actually going even beyond your own expectations? And if that's the case, I just want to know if you have enough flexibility with your own in-house workshops and suppliers to accommodate growth or EBITDA from large CapEx as needed? And then I will go with my next question on Prada.

So regarding this, our industrial facilities are fully prepared to accommodate Miu Miu growth. On the other side, obviously, I would lie if we said that we would have predicted to double our business year-on-year. So it's part of this industry. Sometimes, there is a [indiscernible] or a kind of secret recipe that makes everything -- what you think you're doing well, to turn into something else. So yes, it has been beyond our expectations. And I'm not much worried about the pace of our supply chain, but it's really limiting our supply chain today. This is the real effort we're doing today.

Okay. And then my second question is on Prada, the Prada brand. It seems that you are doubling down on the fine jewelry, with quite an elevated price point. And some of your soft luxury peers like, I don't know, Chanel or Hermes, for example, have developed a decent-sized jewelry business. So I'm just curious to hear, what the client reception and what's your ambitions in this segment? And if there is any plan to expand into watchmaking as well at some point?

So we're already in the watch making with a nice relationship. In terms of jewelry, we started, what is it now, 2.5 years ago. And you can see, it's visible in our stores that we have given space, that we've given prime space. We have doubled our sales this year compared to the year before, but it was not difficult in absolute terms. And we would like to continue to double our business next year as well. So I wouldn't say today it makes any kind of difference to the overall absolute numbers, but we are very, very happy on how it's moving.

We're now going to proceed with our last question, and it has come from the line of James Grzinic from Jefferies International.

Yes. [Foreign Language]. I just had two quick ones. The first one was, can you just give us a measure of how the contribution of [ VAC ] spend has developed within the Prada brand? You talked to making the shopping environment easier for that kind of customer, presume to [ shop ] with you. And secondly, can you give us specific examples of what you're doing in terms of really making sure that Miu Miu can cement this new scale on brand and build to the next level of size?

So regarding your second question on Miu Miu, it's continue to do what we're doing today, in a very simple manner. This is it. We don't have to make mistakes. We don't have to over leverage the brand. We don't have to stretch it. We don't have to look for shortcuts. We have to continue doing -- I mean, there are certain things which are also visible. I mean, the way we participated to our [ Basel ] in Paris. So it was not a kind of sponsorship, was not a kind of inviting artists to a fashion show, but was really Miu Miu participating to the cultural conversation, Miu Miu participating to artist development and the conversation on the [ familiar ] role in this century. So this is what we want to do. I mean, if I talk to my founders on both brands, sometimes they feel that the cultural relevance, that our credibility in terms of our message to the society, to the world is even more important of our financial numbers, and this is keeping on. And the more and the better and the best way we will continue to do, our numbers will come. So we are really into that. We are really into the brands. We're working on the 360 degrees of the brands, night and day. And I think that this is what can really fuel our growth in the long term. Miu Miu on one side and Prada on the other side. Maybe I forgot your first question, but I don't remember it now.

Yes, sorry. It was really the VAC contribution with...

Oh, sorry. Yes. So we don't go in those details. VAC are obviously an important part of our business. And I mean, we have been working and talking about retail excellence in the last, I don't know, 3 years. And this is part of it. I mean the way you manage VAC is a completely different manner compared to other categories that we still love, but BAC or VAC. And this is why we are really developing stores, which are different. We're developing products which are different. We are developing events which are different. We are developing -- and this is 99% very successful, I would say, Prada journey here has been very, very positive. So this is why, I mean I don't feel any pressure by the environment on the Prada trajectory. I really don't feel it. It's all in our hands. And if we will continue to do a good job, we will continue to have growth, which will be well above market growth, market average. Andrea, we finished.

We have. Thank you.

Good.

So thank you, everyone, and looking forward to speaking for the full year results in early 2025. Have a good day. Bye.