PROS Holdings, Inc. (PRO) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
March 4, 2020
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Stan Zlotsky
analystEverybody, thank you so much for joining us today. My name is Stan Zlotsky, from the Morgan Stanley software research team. And with us today, we have the pleasure of hosting PROS. Stefan and Shannon, thank you so much, guys, for joining us. Before we get started, a quick note. Please note that all important disclosures, including personal holdings disclosures and Morgan Stanley disclosures appear on the Morgan Stanley public website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures or at the registration desk.
Stan Zlotsky
analystSo guys, just to kick things off, we're doing this for all the companies that we present this year at the conference. With all of the noise out there with the virus going around and you guys having some exposure to the travel industry, what are you hearing out there? I'm sure you're obviously paying attention to what your sales and your customers are telling you. Give us a little bit of just what you're hearing out there.
Stefan Schulz
executiveYes. So Stan, first of all, thanks for having us. We appreciate being here. I'd say, we've been in the airline space now for over 30 years. We've seen situations similar to the coronavirus in our history and our first order of business, our first priority is, how can we help our customers navigate through this changing time. As you know, we have a tradition and a track record of building forecasts and adjusting those forecasts as circumstances in the environment shift. And so that's where our first focus is right now is how can we help our customers adapt to these changing conditions. And that's -- we have people on the ground at our customer sites now working with them on those types of opportunities, if you will. Now in terms of how it impacts our business, one of the things that we have going for us in terms of how our business is structured is we're -- as you know, we're a SaaS business, we charge an annual fee for our SaaS products, but we're not necessarily a volume-based software solution. So what that means is we're not necessarily subject to wide swings in either positive or negative momentum. Only just a handful of our products have that type of exposure, and that's a very small component of our business. So when we gave guidance a couple of weeks ago, we were asked a similar question. And our answer is, as long as this is more of a temporary in nature type of an environment, we don't really feel a tremendous amount of exposure from it. However, if this is more of a prolonged type of a scenario, we can see a scenario where maybe people change their investment patterns and that could have a different impact on our business from a growth perspective. But in terms of us being impacted negatively, like some of the companies who've announced recently, we're not impacted like that.
Stan Zlotsky
analystOkay. Well, that's great. And I think that provides a great segue into just what PROS is. So when you talk to companies, right, today and a lot of times, they adopt PRO solutions as part of a broader digital transformation strategy. When you look at your 2020 -- just put the virus aside for a second, right, when you look to your 2020, how are you thinking about these -- this pace of digital transformations and how does PROS play into that?
Stefan Schulz
executiveYes. So I mean that is core to our vision and where we want to go as a company. We've spent many years developing algorithms and automation capabilities that are helping companies, but we've really, in the last, call it, 2 to 3 years, really have pointed those solutions in how we can help companies transform their digital channel. I'll characterize it this way, just about everybody has a website and more than likely, they also have some sort of commerce capability on that website. The challenge is, how effective is that channel at driving traffic. And one of the bigger challenges that companies face, especially on the B2B side, is how do you put the price point that the buyer is expecting to see in a way in which that would promote them or -- and encourage them to actually conduct that transaction. That's where we help. We can help companies identify in real-time fashion what that price needs to be so that the e-commerce channel will become more realistic. Otherwise, if it's a list price or if it's some random general discounted price, most buyers, especially corporate buyers, are not going to settle for that type of a price point and either not finish the transaction on that e-commerce channel or potentially go to someone else or pick up the phone and call, which is growing -- that kind of a transaction is growing to be less and less of a desired way in which buyers are wanting to buy. So that's a big part of our strategy. And it's been, I'd say, as you look at our 2019 results, that was a big reason why we had such a strong year in 2019 as we're seeing the fruits of that strategy starting to pay off. And we think that's going to happen as we go into 2020 and beyond.
Stan Zlotsky
analystPerfect. And the business, if you back up, right, historically, was very much tied to airlines and travel, but now you've really branched out, right? And you've really levered your AI platform to apply it to well outside of the travel industry through your CPQ and your e-commerce solutions to really a much bigger piece of the overall business world, right? Can you give us a little bit of background of where you are today as far as what part of the business is travel, what part of the business is outside of travel? And how you think about the market opportunities in those 2?
Shannon Tatz
executiveYes, absolutely. So today, travel is about 45% of the business from a revenue standpoint and B2B is about 55%. And when we talk about B2B, we're solving use cases for customers in the areas of cargo and logistics, high-tech, health care, automotive, industrial, oil and gas, chemicals. So very broad use cases. But what's common amongst a lot of them is the opportunity to buy and sell frequently. So these are very dynamic industries where there's multiple opportunities to sell, multiple opportunities to price and that's where the solution really works well. And in terms of the market opportunity, we address a target market of $9 billion, about $1 billion of that is travel, $8 billion of that is the B2B space. We view our TAM as being much broader than that, but we have go-to-market teams really focused on the B2B side in those industries, which account for that 8% -- or I'm sorry, that $8 billion on the B2B side. Long day of talking. Sorry.
Stan Zlotsky
analystNo. It's, yes, that tends to happen towards the end of the day. So when you think about the remainder, right, like everything outside of the $9 billion, right, how do you go after that, which is a much, much bigger chunk, right, what does it take to go after that, the big remainder?
Shannon Tatz
executiveYes. I think it's moving beyond the target industries we're addressing today in the target geo. So when we talk about that $8 billion in B2B, it's predominantly focused on the U.S., certain parts of Europe, Australia and New Zealand. But over time, as we look to further penetrate that TAM, building out either the go-to-market teams or reseller relationships in Asia, in South America, that presents a big opportunity going after other industries, where we've seen success already, like insurance and telecom, where we have customers today, putting more dedicated focus there, would start to open up those other markets. But even today, we do have a team -- our strategic accounts team that's dedicated to taking those opportunities as they come inbound. So that way, if and when we do have customers in these verticals, where the solution works well, we get the opportunity to start getting some of those use cases in, get more learnings from them. So ultimately, over time, as we want to branch out the team, we really, we have that foundation, we have that knowledge, and we can really leverage those use cases and those customer examples.
Stan Zlotsky
analystGot it. Well, let's maybe -- let's take those 2 things separately, your travel business and your B2B business, the 45% and the 55%. On the travel part, specifically in airlines, right, you guys have been a leader in that category, both from an innovation perspective and also from a market share perspective for a very long time. But when we talk to partners and just doing industry checks, there are other competitors that are starting to kind of pop-up in the market space, specifically for airlines. What are you guys seeing out there as far as competition in the airline space?
Stefan Schulz
executiveYes. So the airline space has always been an attractive space. And you're right, we do see -- we are seeing companies want to invest more in being a part of that industry. But for the most part, our competition for the products in which we provide are similar in there, the, what I'll call, the usual suspects, primarily the GDSs that we compete against. But you said it earlier, Stan, our focus, and one of our key differentiators, is how much investment and how much we partner with our customers in coming up with our next ideas. So our customers in the airline space are some of the most sophisticated and most advanced technology users in the world. And they love to partner, and we love to partner with them on ideas and innovations that we can do to take our technology a step further, to take our science a step further. And oftentimes, they become launch partners for some of these new ideas that are kind of combined -- are the result of combined minds coming together. And that's really fueled a lot of our latest innovation, whether that be in the RM space or revenue management or whether that be in our Group Sales space or in our Real Time Pricing space. All of those have come as a result of tight partnerships with our airline customers and having them be a part of our launch program in helping us work out the details so that we can have a viable go-to-market product.
Stan Zlotsky
analystGot it. And are there, specifically within the airline and maybe probably broader in the travel space, are there any specific competitors that you've really seen trying to make a more aggressive move or somebody that maybe comes up more often in RFPs than in the past?
Stefan Schulz
executiveFrom a travel perspective, it's -- no, not really. It's been the same -- it's just been the same suspects. Like I said, it's primarily the large GDS providers.
Stan Zlotsky
analystOkay. Great. Staying with the airline space, you recently made an acquisition of Travelaer to really complete your broader e-commerce cycle capabilities, right? What is the market opportunity that you're able to address now with this pickup?
Shannon Tatz
executiveYes. I think it positions us to further penetrate the travel space. So if you think of what we've done in the travel space, historically, it's been about powering the back-end experience. So providing the intelligence to get to the right forecast, to get to the right price. With Travelaer, it really helps us connect the front end to you. So as the airlines are trying to use their mobile experience or the web and they're trying to figure out what to display and when and how to really provide a winning customer experience through their own airline-dot-coms and direct channels, which are the most cost-effective to them, this enables us to really help with that process. So we're able to kind of connect what we've been doing in the background with the front end. So from a TAM expansion standpoint, I think, this just better positions us to go after the overall travel space.
Stan Zlotsky
analystDoes this acquisition shift at all the competitive landscape in this space to maybe bring in a new group of potential competitors?
Shannon Tatz
executiveNot really. I mean to a certain degree, could you see, kind of, Spiralogics or -- but could ultimately be Sabre there, yes, a little bit more on that end. But you still see predominantly the GDS players also looking to penetrate in this space. So I think it's more so chipping away from other areas, where maybe they are looking to sell a broader portfolio into the airline space.
Stan Zlotsky
analystGot it. Maybe just more broadly, how do you guys think about your M&A strategy, right, in terms of building out some of this functionality natively versus maybe going out and buying somebody?
Stefan Schulz
executiveYes. So our -- we have a very specific M&A strategy, and it's mostly around how do we complement the technology, to your point, that furthers our vision around our strategy of really being the AI that powers commerce in the digital economy. That's really what we're going after. So things that can complement our existing capabilities to further our lead in that space is really where we focus. But it's not just there. Technology is the first step that we need to make sure it's a nice complement, and it's very much in alignment with where we want to go strategically. But there's also another important component and that is cultural fit. PROS really values culture in our organization. And I think, if any of you who have had an opportunity to spend any time with our people, you see it immediately. I saw it when I joined the company and, I think, we still have it today. And that's an important dimension that we look at when we look at strategic M&A, and that is: one, making sure that we have the right fit from a technological perspective that it's really going to move the needle in terms of where we want to go strategically around digital commerce; and second, that it's not going to disrupt the culture that we've built over a longer period of time. And we feel like if we have those 2 pieces identified and pulled together, the acquisitions have a much higher rate of success probability. And that's certainly been the case with the deals we've done so far.
Stan Zlotsky
analystGot it. That makes sense. Maybe switching gears to the B2B side of the business, right? And the much broader opportunity that you have on the B2B side, right, what are some of the low-hanging fruit that you guys are looking to go after in order to go -- in order to attack that much bigger addressable market? Maybe what are some of the geographies or verticals that you're looking to really attack immediately, I mean, but most immediately?
Shannon Tatz
executiveYes. I mean, I think, really, it's continuing to target the target market that we have identified today. If we think of any of the industries that we serve, we don't view any of them as more than about 10% to 15% penetrated. So we think there's a lot of room to continue to drive in the Americas, in Europe, in Australia, New Zealand, in the industries that I mentioned before. There's quite a bit of runway there. So I think you'll see us continuing to focus there, particularly, as we have more customer examples, more industry leaders in those areas. And as their competitors start to feel some of the effects of the pricing and selling motions that we are putting into place, it gives us the opportunity to continue to be efficient in our go-to-market strategy and also to show the success and use that to really propel growth moving forward. So I think you'll see us focus there in kind of the midterm, and then over time, potentially leaning into resellers, more to go after other geographies. It's something we're starting to look into. But I would say it's very early days.
Stan Zlotsky
analystSo maybe what -- if you're comfortable discussing, what are some of these potential areas that you would go into? Maybe not with the resellers, but, like, maybe some countries or verticals?
Stefan Schulz
executiveYes, I'll add to what Shannon said. I think I answer it in a different way than you're probably expecting me to answer it. But one of the cool things about the platform that we've developed is it has tremendous extensibility. It can solve a lot of different challenges. I mean there are -- we obviously saw pricing challenges for our customers. We can solve supply, and we can do mix alignments. We can -- or mix optimization, we can move inventory, help customers know where to move inventory for -- to match capacity and peak demands and things of that nature. So the bigger challenge we have is around how do we narrow our focus so that we can truly be successful because we can continue to broaden that aperture. And if we're not careful, we'll find ourselves trying to span too wide of an opportunity, whether that be in an industry or whether that be in a geography or whether that be in a use case. I mean if you think about it, in many respects, we have customers that ask us about this all the time. Well, if you can help me solve my sell-side challenges from a pricing standpoint, why couldn't you help me solve my buy side? Well, the truth is we probably can, and we can. The challenge is there's a whole different set of algorithms and work that needs to be done to tailor the solution to do that. And if we're not careful, we're going to find ourselves so distracted in so many different areas that we lose sight of where we feel like we have a competitive and a core competitive advantage right now. And so one of the reasons why we picked the verticals and the industries we picked is we have a good amount of core competency in those areas. We also picked the geographies we're in because we already have a presence in those geographies, and they're sufficient of a TAM that we can go after and have a huge amount of success and then build from there. But you're hitting on a huge opportunity for us, but it's also, in some respects, it can be a trap. If we're too broad, we might lose our focus and not take advantage of the full...
Stan Zlotsky
analystFull drowning in the sea of opportunities.
Stefan Schulz
executiveThat's right. That's right.
Stan Zlotsky
analystSo when you look at this really wide open opportunity that you have in front of you, and you talk to your customers, are there some customers that are more open to adopting these types of AI solutions? Or is it that everybody should be adopting them at some point, it's just a matter of time?
Stefan Schulz
executiveI would say, and Shannon, you can chime in here, because Shannon was actually on the frontline working in our sales team, but I've been with the company now for 5 years. And it's clear to me that the amount of selling that we need to do to convince customers to utilize AI is far less today than it was 5 years ago when I joined. So the mindset around people in the receptiveness, if you will, to leveraging artificial intelligence and machine learning to help them run their business is far greater today than it was before. But I wouldn't go so far as to say it's universal. There's still pockets and there are still areas where there's some reticence to turning it over completely to a set of algorithms to help make decisions. And so -- but we're certainly seeing the tide change there. And Shannon, I know, you've been on the frontline. Do you have anything to add to that?
Shannon Tatz
executiveYes. I think companies that are embarking on a digital transformation initiative are a great opportunity. And to a certain point, they can vary across industries. But those companies with that mindset of, hey, I want to create some kind of strategic advantage around how my customers buy, we're able to work with them to figure out, okay, how can we drive a more digital experience? How can we provide the types of real-time information you would need to provide to powering e-commerce channel? And we see it in pockets, but it's more so companies thinking through, well, how do I make that my competitive advantage. And if I were to give you an example, we worked with Greyhound, and they were in some kind of a race to a bottom from a pricing perspective with some of the local bus carriers in different geographies. And so one thing they were looking to do is figure out, well, how can I make the buying experience through a mobile device, through the website, something that gets customers excited and the way they were able to do that is by using PROS in the background to help power what should the price be? How do I manage that inventory? And how do I keep that updated in real time. So companies thinking through how do I make that kind of shift and really stand out amongst my competitors, is a good opportunity for us for sure.
Stefan Schulz
executiveYes. I think the good news is we've seen a shift and a move there. I think the better news is we're going to see even more going forward.
Stan Zlotsky
analystGot it. So staying with the B2B side of the business, one of the functionalities that you guys provide on the B2B side is CPQ, right? And the CPQ market, there are a number of competitors, it's very fragmented, but also a very busy competitive landscape. How are you -- first of all, are you seeing any particular vendors that are really starting to make more noise in recent years? Or -- and looking at it, think about it the other way, what are you guys doing to really stay ahead of the competition in that market?
Stefan Schulz
executiveYes. We were having this conversation earlier in one of our one-on-one sessions and I would characterize it this way. Again, I've been with the company for 5 years and, I think, our competitive positioning with our CPQ product has never been better than it is today. We -- when we got into the CPQ space, we acknowledged that we were coming from behind, that there was work that we needed to do to make our product more relevant in the space. And we took on several initiatives, including adding some agreements capabilities, which is some of the subscription capabilities, a much better quote environment and a much more predictable and more efficient engine. And today, I feel like we've got a product that's really unparalleled. And our competitive positioning has been proven by the fact that we have far more wins than we did before. Our win rate has improved significantly. We announced at the last quarter conference call that CPQ is our largest growing product in our product portfolio. So we feel very good about how we're positioned from a CPQ perspective. And it's been -- as you probably know, it's been a long time, and it's been a long road to get to where we are. But I would also say that our goal isn't necessarily to be the best CPQ company in the world. Our goal is to help companies make this transition into the digital economy and help them leverage AI. And so our goal around CPQ is to leverage that as a tool to enable companies to make that successful. So there are a lot of use cases for CPQ, as you know, that are different from that. And we're certainly happy to help in sales force automation and sales force enablement, but our primary goal and what we're trying to really go with all of our products, whether the pricing or the CPQ, is to really empower that omnichannel and digital experience. And that's really where our focus is.
Stan Zlotsky
analystGot it. Maybe shift gears slightly to some of the -- some numbers questions, since we have the CFO up on the stage. So Stefan, a question for you. So fiscal '20 ARR guidance, you're looking for about 17% growth in ARR. It's a small acceleration versus 16% in fiscal '19. What gives you the confidence that -- in essentially guiding to an acceleration in the current year? What are you seeing out there?
Stefan Schulz
executiveYes. Well, several things. One, I commented earlier about our competitive positioning, I feel like we're in the best place we've ever been, at least from my tenure at the company. We continue to see our pipeline expand and grow. We have added -- we added about 19% more reps last year. Those reps are now enabled. They're scheduled to be productive. We're going to add even more reps as we go throughout this year. I feel like we've got -- we -- our mission and our vision is very much aligned with where we see companies wanting to go in terms of their digital transformation. So obviously, there's a lot of work that needs to happen. There's a lot of execution that needs to happen on our part. But just given our track record, given the opportunities and, I think, how we positioned ourselves, it gives us the confidence to see, like you said, a slight expansion beyond last year in terms of what our bookings growth can look like.
Stan Zlotsky
analystRight. I'm going to throw out one more question and then we'll open up to the floor to see if there are anybody -- any questions in the audience. For this coming year, you shared your plan that you're going to try to offload some of the Professional Services to your partners, where the actual work is done on their paper. It's not -- it doesn't hit -- it doesn't hit your paper. How do you think about the ideal level of PRO services that you guys need to maintain to really ensure customer success?
Stefan Schulz
executiveYes, that's a real good question. And we -- what's paramount to us is that the customer experience in using our products is superior. I mean our mission is to help our customers outperform. And the only way they can do that, in our view, is to take advantage of the technology and in order for them to take advantage of the technology, we've got to make sure that they're -- it's deployed properly, that it's optimized to their goals, and they're getting full advantage of it. And so as we look to bringing in partners that are going to help us with that, we want to make sure that those partners are properly enabled so that they can deliver that same kind of value proposition that we would deliver. And as many of you know, we have -- we've engaged a lot of the partners, specifically from Ernst & Young, who we signed a partnership agreement with late last year, and we've embedded them into our Professional Services projects so that they're much better enabled to provide that same level and quality of service when they're on their own. That said, I think, most engagements, whether they're sourced by us or whether they're sourced by E&Y, will still have some level of PROS Professional Services involvement. Just because that's what I would like to see, that's what we would like to see just to ensure that everything is moving in a direction that would be consistent, regardless of whether E&Y is the lead or whether PROS is the lead, with the outcome being we want the best possible product and service for our customers.
Stan Zlotsky
analystAll right. Perfect. Let's see if there are any questions in the audience? No. So I'll keep right on going. So when we look at your 2019 results, there was a very small step down in gross revenue retention. Can you maybe walk us through puts and takes of what happened there? Is it just some of the smaller customers that you picked up on the B2B side that maybe churned? And how do you think about that rate going forward?
Stefan Schulz
executiveYes. So we talked about that, that our historical trend has been somewhere in the mid-90s and we saw it just below that rate in 2019. And so we've talked about that. And as you might imagine, when you peel back the layers of the onion, one thing didn't just pop out and say, this is it. But as we looked at the trends, one of the things that we did identify is exactly what you said, there were some -- an increase in the number of, call them, smaller, single-use case products. They're typically legacy products with really no upgrade pattern in place. And kind of putting a cause and effect to it, as we've been promoting more and more of the migrations, it's become more and more obvious in some of those scenarios that there's not a clear migration path for some of those products. And we certainly saw some of those churn. And that's a little bit higher than what we would have seen in the past. Then to your second part of your question, our go-forward plan is that we talked about being somewhere in the 93% to 94%. And as we get into the 94%, we get back into this mid-90s range that we target and where we liked and we feel comfortable being. But I think as we get bigger and as we get more and more customers, the ability to manage a larger number of customers, there's going to be a natural level of churn that occurs just from natural business tendencies. And we still view 93%, 94% gross churn, to your point, as being one of the best in the industry. So we certainly want it to be better, but we also want to acknowledge that it's still a pretty powerful gross retention rate.
Stan Zlotsky
analystPerfect. Right. Well, I think, that's a good place for us to stop. Stefan, Shannon, thank you so much for your time today.
Shannon Tatz
executiveThank you.
Stefan Schulz
executiveThank you for having us.
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