Proximus PLC (PROX) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
January 16, 2023
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Nancy Goossens
executiveLadies and gentlemen, welcome here in Brussels or online. Great you're joining us for this Capital Markets Day. I'm not going to keep you waiting for too long as we have a very interesting set of presentations for you. And we will kick off this session with the CEO, Guillaume Boutin, who will take us through the 3-year strategy, bold2025. Guillaume, the floor is yours.
Guillaume Boutin
executiveWelcome, everyone. Thank you for joining us here in Brussels or virtually. Before starting, I would like to wish you a fantastic 2023. For Proximus, this year kicks off with today's Capital Markets Day. And I'm super happy to be here together with the members of the management team to share with you our vision and ambitions for the next 3 years. Today, we'll go through several presentations. But there are 2 elements that are key and which I would like you to take away. First, we'll speak about the story that you have probably heard before: fiber deployment. But the Proximus playbook is somehow different from what you have seen elsewhere. An ambition to cover 95% of the country, with 70% ownership of the network and a tremendous focus on customer for maximum monetization, thanks to our 3- to 5-year head start versus our competitors. Indeed, as we supercharge our fiber program, we gained that crucial product superiority which has been missing for years on the fixed market. Second, we'll also talk about how we are on the path to change the overall profile of Proximus Group through the internationalization and the softwarization of our activities. Besides our traditional domestic activities centered on our networks, we now have a broad, solid international presence built on asset-light global and fast-growing platforms. Taken together, these 2 elements, domestic product superiority and internationalization, allow Proximus to find the right balance and create value at both medium and long term. To start my intro session, I'll begin with a look back on the strategic cycle that ended last year, #inspire2022. And I'm extremely proud because we delivered on what we had planned. A few years ago, we committed to turn the group back to growth, and we did it. But before sharing more details on the inspire performance, let's quickly come back to that new footprint of our group, a unique profile within the industry, which is based on 2 complementary assets. First, we have our Benelux leg, which represents 75% of the group revenues today. There, the focus is on building and owning the best low-latency and high-speed networks and expanding further our large customer base, thanks to our portfolio of strong brands and relentless customer focus. And then we have our second leg, our International segment. There, we operate in high-growth global markets. Furthermore, the capital intensity is extremely low as the assets are mainly delivering software solutions for enterprises. Today, this segment represents already 25% of our revenues, but it will definitely become more and more important for the group in the years to come. We have a dedicated session on the International segment later. Indeed, the playbook here is slightly different from what we do in our traditional domestic activities. But I will first start with a look back on the last few years, taking each of those 2 legs, one at a time. Let's start first with how we completely turned around our Domestic business. Here, we selected 5 metrics that actually demonstrate the extent of the journey we have made. First and foremost, we accelerated our fiber rollout, which really built a fiber machine, which now reaches the speed of 10% additional coverage every year, hence providing Proximus with a massive competitive edge. Second, we drastically modified the way our customers assess our products and services. A concrete proof point is the NPS increments, the Net Promoter Score increments, achieved. We multiplied them by almost 3 as compared to 2019 levels. Thirdly, by leveraging our network and a renewed word of mouth, we sustained a super strong commercial momentum that led to a significant increase of our customer base. One number to just give you a sense of the magnitude of that: our postpaid customer net growth over the last 2 years has reached levels that we have not seen in around 10 years. And we delivered all that in the context of the COVID pandemic and specifically for Proximus just following a heavy social plan. Nevertheless, we managed to rebuild a constructive social dialogue while increasing our employee engagement to levels that are higher than those we had before the social plan. Last but not least, we also delivered on our green ambitions through reducing our CO2 emissions by 40%. At the same time, we doubled down on our international assets. As I took over in 2019, I decided to stop the divestment process that was ongoing. On the contrary, I chose to buy out the minorities of both BICS and Telesign at attractive terms. My objective was to ensure that our group was exposed to asset-light, fast-growing markets as well as geographies with different dynamics than the Benelux. This was definitely a bold choice, but as shown clearly on those 2 charts, we turned around both businesses. They are now recording substantial growth rates. Telesign, for example, delivered 5 consecutive quarters of growth in direct margin, resulting in Q3 in a 4% (sic) [ 40% ] year-over-year growth. When we take it all together, Domestic and International, over the last 3 years, we get this picture, which speaks for itself. We really delivered on a promise. We returned to growth. Let's now take a step back and assess together where we stand. As a matter of fact, #inspire2022 laid the ground and built strong foundations, which are uniquely positioning us towards the future. Once more, let's analyze successively our 2 segments. First, on the Domestic side, as already touched upon, we secured undisputed product superiority and leadership for both mobile and fixed. In fixed, we ensured a multiyear first-mover advantage as we offer the fastest technology on the market. We recently launched our 10-gigabit-per-second offering, while all our competitors currently remain on an inferior, outdated technology. Then in mobile, we also have an edge. We acquired more spectrum than any of our competitors, enabling us to ensure a better mobile experience for our customers and that for the next 20 years. And as you know, in our industry, everything starts with product leadership. It will allow us to grow in the telco market through gaining market shares, mostly in the north and increasing customer value. Jim and Anne-So will come back to this. Our customer experience advantage will allow us to continue winning back shares on competition in all regions from our main competitors. That's simple but super effective plan. We'll roll out the best networks. We create the best user experience. And with that, we extend and develop the value of our B2B and B2C customer bases. And that's it for the Domestic part. On the International side, we fully now own 2 companies, which are superbly positioned to capture the strong growth of the markets on which they are operating. They both have a global footprint. BICS, for instance, has access to more than 5 billion mobile subscribers. Those 2 affiliates also have a strong and growing customer base. For example, 8 of the top 10 global Internet platforms are currently customers of Telesign. And finally, they both have strong competitive advantages, and we'll come back to both with Joe and Matteo later today. So we have very strong foundations, and they allow us to look to the future with confidence. And this, despite a series of headwinds that will make our life a little bit more complex, such as inflation, a new entrant of potential infrastructure competition. But nonetheless, thanks to our assets, thanks to the unique position I just explained, I am sure, I'm convinced, we're able to amply compensate by capturing value from different opportunities. More connected and globalized world with digital communications and gigabit connectivity are every day more important. Fiber becoming the dominant network technology, not only in Belgium but everywhere for the future and, hence, giving us that competitive advantage I just mentioned. And then the growing importance of cybersecurity and data privacy exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. Both at domestic and international levels, we have numerous assets active in the cyber defense fields, and this is a substantial opportunity for the group. In summary, many changes for our company. The end of inspire strategic cycle and ongoing evolution to a more international group and a strong diversification of our activities. And in parallel, a world that has massively evolved, COVID, Ukraine, inflation amongst many others that I don't need to detail to you. In that context, we felt it was the right time to develop not only new strategy but actually also to rethink our sense of purpose. And it shows the following one: boldly building a connected world that people trust so society blooms. This new sense of purpose really highlights what the new DNA of the company is. We built a world that is more connected, but we also take up on us to make these digital ecosystems more trustworthy, and we come back here to the critical security and sovereignty questions. Further, we consider that our company has inherently a societal responsibility. We must and we will play a broader role towards making a better world. And at the last element, boldness, we were bold in accelerating our fiber deployment. We were bold in acquiring full ownership of BICS and Telesign, and we want to continue being bold. And as a result, we called out a new strategic cycle, bold2025. Bold is hence the articulation of our ambitions for the next 3 years. It is a structured, comprehensive plan that will allow us to find the right balance between capturing value both at medium and long term, both at domestic and international levels. And as you can see, this new strategic framework is built around 6 pillars, grouped into 2 categories. First, we have our strengths, the unique assets that form the foundation of everything we do as a company: our gigabit network, our technology assets and of course, our people. With these enablers, we deliver various outcomes for 3 stakeholders that form the basis of the next 3 pillars: society, we act for it, are sustainable in everything we do; our customers, we delight them with unrivaled experience; and, of course, our shareholders, for whom we grow profitably locally and globally. And we are convinced that this ambitious strategy and the detailed plan that underpin it will indeed deliver value. In Domestic, we'll continue on our commercial momentum, exploit our first-mover advantage in fiber and mitigate cost with efficiency programs. All that will translate into free cash flow recoveries through a growing EBITDA as of 2024 and return to normalized CapEx levels. And then we'll further accelerate our growth in the International segment through doubling down in high-growth markets, such as digital communications and digital identity, while expanding into new geographies. Our ambitions here will be to achieve high single-digit DM growth at low CapEx intensity. Hence, free cash flow contribution from international activities will become more and more significant for our group over the years. And let's now deep dive in our bold2025 strategy, and I will go briefly through the 6 pillars I just laid out. And let's start with the first one. Rolling out the first -- the best gigabit network for Belgium. The ambition here is quite simple: ensure absolute product superiority, both on fixed and mobile and, hence, become the reference gigabit network by 2025. And we have the best position to achieve this. I already touched upon our competitive edges in fixed fiber head start in terms of capabilities, and that is super important in current market conditions and partnerships, 10-gigabit-per-second product superiority and an ambitious goal to cover 50% of the country by 2025, 95% longer term. In mobile, our greatest advantage is, of course, the large spectrum that we have acquired, which ensures we will continue to offer the best experience in the market. In fixed, our key differentiator is, therefore, fiber, with 3 important numbers you should have in mind: 95% coverage by 2032, we'll own 70% of the network, and we'll achieve it with roughly 20% funded with our own CapEx. The most important element though is the current base that we can reach with our fiber machine, around 10% of the country annually as previously mentioned. This will definitely help us minimize overbuild risk given the high rollout cost in the Belgium market. In mobile, we have one major ambition. We aim to cover 100% of the population with 5G by 2025. We also expand into new innovation areas such as slicing and low latency, while, of course, ensuring we limit the cost of the network through, for example, outphasing 3G as of 2024 and ramping up the benefits of MWingz RAN consolidation ASAP. Second pillar, our tech capabilities and assets. I recall that milestone like a bit of a complex slide. But it reflects the journey that we have embraced to evolve from a telecom company towards a tech group through owning more software IPs going forward and creating a platform-centric techno stack to answer to the evolving needs of our customers and markets all over the world. As you can see, our telco business model is evolving into a digital ecosystem, obviously, at the application level but also notably at the level of the network and infrastructure resources. In short, all the assets of the group stack follow the softwarization transformation. On a national scale, through network and infrastructure socialization, also on the international scale through BICS and in adjacent areas, in apps through Telesign. Overall, we have one clear ambition: leveraging all the tech assets and capabilities of our group in order to foster synergies and offer the best portfolio of conversion solutions. And crucially, such evolution for a tech stack will also continue to allow cost savings, with EUR 70 million reduction in TCO by 2025. These decreases are actually driven by several factors: a simplified digital layer and refactored channels, a single offering change for high-value products also for the enterprise business, state-of-the-art data platforms and a revamp of our private cloud environments. And coming back to the digital channels, an important element will be the streamlining of our e-sales and e-services channels, which will further improve customer experiences and enable an acceleration to e-sales and e-servicing over time. And our last enabler pillar. We will foster an engaging culture and empowering ways of working. A key component of that is, of course, our agile transformation, which is well underway and already produces value through simplification across all the organizations. Nevertheless, such a broad transformation is a long process and will reap incremental benefits as we progress along our journey: more customer centricity, reduction in time to market and increments in employee engagement. I will now move to 3 next pillars. We also cover our 3 stakeholders: society, customers and shareholders. First one, society. Indeed, societal impact is at the core of our new sense of purpose. As a matter of fact, given our size in Belgium, given our history, given our DNA, given our influence on critical areas of citizens like digital inclusion, cybersecurity or cyber defense or even more on sovereignty of the data infrastructure, we have a crucial role to play. And especially in the troubled times we experience today, our society needs leaders, and Proximus must and wants to take up that responsibility. We do this in multiple ways: nurturing digital trust; combating digital divide; championing diversity and inclusion; and, of course, fighting climate change, which is the topic of the next slide, where, first of all, we reconfirm our ambitious targets, becoming net zero by 2040 and truly circular by 2030. In terms of CO2 reductions, we already managed to significantly reduce our footprint by 40% in 3 years. But we will, of course, not stop here as we have a new target of 20% reduction by 2025. And on the circularity side, we'll continue to work on our entire chain, devices, network and data centers and, of course, our real estate or facilities. We are, by the way, one of the first operators globally to have its targets validated by SBTi, the Science Based Targets initiative, another proof of our seriousness in that domain. After society, let's now turn to our second stakeholders, our customers. And here, one clear objective: we want to be #1 in customer experience across all of our segments. And we can actually be quite confident as we have a super good track record, with strong improvements over the last 3 years. We nonetheless want to raise the bar even higher by 2025. We aim to achieve this, thanks to a series of levers: first, a superior connectivity experience that fully leverages the power of fiber; then by going digital first for simple transactions while valorizing human contact when it matters; and finally, by anchoring continuous improvements on customer feedback. On top of these elements, we also want to improve customer experience by offering our customer platforms, which are 2 differentiators, with many participants across the digital life. Pickx, on the one hand, aims at becoming the next-generation entertainment aggregator. We then have a second platform, Proximus+, which has an ambition to become the daily assistant of Belgium citizens. It already covers several verticals beyond telco, such as fintech, with our neobank; mobility, thanks to 4411, the parking app that we fully own; or e-health, with Doktr, the first telemedicine solution in Belgium. With Proximus+, we're, in fact, building a stronger connection with our customers through developing seamless experiences across all those different services. And crucially, this is achieved based on the CapEx-light model. And innovation for our international customers is, of course, also at the core of what BICS and Telesign are doing every day. At BICS, recent product innovations include a new low-code customer engagement platform, which enhances cross-channel communication and customer experiences through flexible plug-ins that allow integration with websites, third-party CRMs, ERPs, help desk software, e-commerce platforms and marketing tools, and all of this with 0 or minimal coding. We also launched a 5G stand-alone roaming platform based on the principle of Secure Hub to streamline complexity and which is sitting on the next-generation data roaming network, IPX, optimized by low latency through local managed breakouts and integration of the cloud edges of this world. And then, we have other innovative tracks around e-SIM for IoT or our MPN hub platform that provides seamless management of mobility within and across MPN locations, including breakouts to access to public networks at local but also, more importantly, at global scale. For Telesign as well, many, many product innovations. First of all, the self-service feature now allows businesses of any size to connect, protect and defend their customer relationships with the same services Telesign already provide to the biggest, most sophisticated companies in the world. Another example is the age verify, which is a new service that helps enterprises and websites verify the age of the people trying to use their services. This is an important part of protecting teenagers from access to tobacco, alcohol, gaming or other services that are restricted to adults. And then last example for Telesign is a silent verify product, which allows websites and applications to protect the customers, thanks to our SMS-based multifactor authentication, which is a streamlined user experience. And that's for pillar on customers. We have one final pillar for our last stakeholders: our shareholders. For them, we obviously want to grow, both in domestic and international markets. And this page is probably a bit conceptual, but it shows how our international assets will significantly fuel our future growth. On the one hand, they allow us to expand geographically, and we can extend the reach of our portfolio of solutions. But it's more. They also enable us to accelerate or move to software. It means evolving our activities towards high-growth areas, international expansion and softwarization, both will be crucial for our group in the future, as I said before. Nonetheless, as already mentioned, even though our core local telco markets has an overall solid growth profile, we still have a robust plan also to deliver value there as well. So let's first zoom on this one. I already shared some elements. But if I do summarize, our strategy to grow in domestic telco encompasses 4 drivers: first one, fiber win backs, increasing our market share, especially in Flanders; second one, pricing power through a mix of ARPC uplift and pricing indexations; third one, doubling down on the strong conversion strategy; and last one, generating stickiness, thanks to our premium content. Furthermore, our multi-brand strategy is also a crucial asset, which allows us to acquire and protect across all segments. Above all, it enables us to quickly react to disruptive moves of the market. And let's look now at a short video that visually shows the positioning of each of the 3 brands that you might know. [Presentation]
Guillaume Boutin
executiveContinuing on our domestic market, but moving to our second segment, our enterprise business. So I might say that Proximus has a true secret sauce as it comes to managing our B2B activities because there, again, the ambition for the coming 3 years is to even accelerate the trends that you have seen in recent quarters and, once again, to grow our revenues. And we'll do it while maintaining a stable contribution margin. And then we will achieve this through following a strategy based on 3 axes. First, in line with what we have done successfully over the last years, we'll continue to drive smart telco value management through focusing on smart pricing, value-accretive migrations on our fiber network, customer delight and extensive upselling. Second, we will accelerate further in the Benelux IT market. Our priority areas are clear: cloud, security and services. We'll, for example, expand our reach, thanks to a standardized security. Standardize is super important word. Standardized security and cloud portfolio for small and the mid-market -- for small and mid-market size enterprises. And we'll build on our strategic partnership with Microsoft to develop also the sovereign cloud offer. And finally, we'll continue to transform and innovate with our customers and partners. We are uniquely positioned to do this, and we are convinced our focus on end-to-end conversion services, which further unlock value for us. IoT, digital workplaces, big data, all require a modern connectivity layer that we provide with our gigabit networks. And Anne-So will soon provide you with more details on this enterprise strategy. This is for this afternoon. And finally, as already mentioned several times, BICS and Telesign will contribute materially to our group growth story. Again, more on that in the dedicated session this afternoon with Matteo and Jim. That was the last slide that detailed all the pillars of our bold2025 strategy. I will now conclude with a few points that summarize our ambition. bold2025 is really a growth plan, a winning strategy that creates long-term value through several layers. First, the acceleration of fiber rollout in Belgium, reaching 50% of population by 2025 and connecting more than 1 million customer lines by 2025. Second, achieving #1 position in customer experience across segments, thanks to our product superiority and enabled by our agile organization transformation. Next, ensuring a commercial momentum in domestic, thanks to our gigabit network leadership and our IT ecosystem. Developing international front-runners, BICS and Telesign, in digital identity and digital communications to further unlock group diversification. And lastly, become a force for good in society through nurturing digital trust, combating digital divide and build a more sustainable world. And before we head for lunch, a final page, which summarizes our bold2025 financial ambitions. We'll grow our domestic revenues and return our domestic EBITDA to the level of 2022 by 2025. We'll accelerate our international EBITDA, including a direct margin growth at high single-digit CAGR. At group level, we will grow EBITDA as from 2024, with 2025 EBITDA slightly above the 2022 level. CapEx will return to normalized levels after a peak in 2023. Further, our goal is to maintain a sound financial position by maintaining our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio between 2.5x and 3x by rebasing our dividend as from 2024. And finally, as a management team, we commit to long-term free cash flow growth trajectory. Thanks for you. Thanks for your listening to that first part of the CMD. I think we are a bit ahead of time, but we can have a longer lunch break. And I think we have to resume for our next presentation at 1:30 p.m. sharp. Thank you for listening. [Break]
Guillaume Boutin
executiveWelcome back. Let's now start with our domestic activities and a session called building and monetizing the #1 gigabit network for Belgium. We are -- we have structured this presentation in 4 major buckets. First, Geert will explain how we'll expand the deployment of our gigabit network. Then Jim will detail out how we leverage fiber product priority to boost our commercial momentum. Just after that, Renault will cover our ongoing ambition of long-term operational efficiencies. And finally, Mark will quickly go through the financial aspects and will detail out the investment thesis of this fiber investment. But we start with Geert. Geert, the floor is yours.
Geert Standaert
executiveThank you, Guillaume, and good afternoon to everybody. So I will double-click a bit on our gigabit fiber deployment. And Guillaume have said it while we have already passed 1.3 million today, which is representing a bit more than 20%, our '25 ambition is to cover 50% in the coming 3 years and double that coverage by '32 to 6 million cumulative homes, and that is about 95%. This space that you see there on that slide is only possible things, of course, to our fiber engine, which is fully up and running and which is giving us a head start. Let me first talk about the construction capacity. We have been having an experience, a 6 years' experience in fiber deployment, and we have a long-lasting relationship with many, many construction companies out there. This allows us, of course, to have high capacity secured to cover the massive ambitions but also at good conditions. We know that we can deploy with high quality but also at a fair cost. And this is, of course, giving us -- well, a lot of work to people in Belgium, about 6,000 people now working in fiber deployment. But deployment is more than pure technical program. It's also a lot about communication and collaboration. As such, we have a collaboration contract with more than 600 building promoters, which is representing 2/3 of all the new build in Belgium. And also with most of them, we have commercial agreements, whereby we have the exclusivity to promote our fiber offers. And that, of course, helps us in the acquisition. But we have other important stakeholders. We have, for example, cities. Cities are crucial for affluent deployment. We have with them proactive communication, upfront, good governance practice around works on public domain. We have constant alignment meetings, immediate corrective actions when that is needed. And as such, we ensure, in fact, good relations that allow a rollout, which is smoothly, this in most cities as planned or even better. Third stakeholders, the syndics, and syndics in Belgium is a pretty scattered population, and that -- we have about 3,500 registered syndics. We have created a dedicated team to, in fact, educate these syndics. So it's about what are we going to do? How is it working that we enter into a building? Why do we do this? What are the legal aspects? We have full support of the syndic federations, and even our trainings towards syndics, they are recognized as official training hours. The fact that Proximus is also doing copper outphasing, meaning maximum 5 years after we deploy on public domain, we outphase the copper, is, in fact, a key argument for introducing as well the fiber in what we call the MDUs, the multi-dwelling units. Innovations. We did a lot of point-to-multi-point deployment so far, but now we have also massively started in point-to-point. But this means we have a portfolio of solutions, enabling us to opt for a best-fit solution to maintain a kind of optimal cost-benefit balance. We also started deploying in rural, with the German-speaking community, pretty rural area. Well, there, we are now as well deploying on poles. And that is one before we did it on façade, we did it in underground, but now we use as well pole methodology, which is an important way to be cost-efficient. Also, the poles -- the ownership of the poles is sitting with the energy utilities. We have signed an important strategic partnership with Ores, and that is ongoing with RESA and Fluvius for the usage of the poles. And the last element on this slide is about subsidies. We were granted in fact, in '22, the mass of the subsidies. That is about EUR 45 million that we had that was for German-speaking community but as well for other projects. Now the past years, we accelerated strongly. Guillaume referred to it with the times 2, times 2. And in '22, we added an additional 100,000. Now what you see is that for our own rollout pace, and that is the dark purple block. We actually peaked in '22. And as from this year, it will slow down, and the freed-up capacity will move entirely to the JVs. Now talking about the JVs, they started truly working in the streets in '22. And you might say that a number there on this chart with respect to homes passed is not massive. And that is true, but that is essentially due to a change of topology from point to multi-point to point to point and some related process changes. Actually, on top of the few tens of thousands of homes passed they deliver, the JVs already brought fiber in front of more than 150,000 extra addresses. So they did a massive job already in the streets in Flanders as well as in Wallonia. And it's in this year '23, that all those addresses will also become homes passed in batches as soon as what we call a POP will be installed. And a POP, that is a sort of container where we put all our active equipment and where we connect that on the physical fiber. But of course, getting a POP in place, what does it require? You need to find land, you need to rent it, you need to acquire it, you need to launch building permits. And that, as you can imagine, that takes some time. But in the future, that is a step that is now done far ahead in the process. So this will no longer bring any delay. Now of course, we were as well hit by inflation. That is not magic, but the good thing is that here on our own footprint, based on all continuous efforts, we were, in fact, able to largely neutralize the inflation impact. And how we do this, that is a different scale, but it's, of course, further learnings on network design, reducing the numbers of meters you have to deploy to get to a home passed. It is that optimal choice that we can have between point to multi-point, point to point but also the façade-underground-poles type of deployment. It's our scale and maturity which enables us to have, of course, best supplier conditions. But also for remote outlines, sometimes when we do a project fiber deployment, here and there, some houses are very expensive to connect that we do through alternative technologies, and that is with fixed wireless access. Many innovations still coming as well. First innovation, quantum on fiber, which brings a step change in secured communication, but we have a small video. So you will see in a few minutes what quantum means for us. Guillaume referred as well to softwarization of our networks and slicing -- network slicing, whether it's on your mobile asset on -- or your fixed asset is a very nice example there that can enable, again, many innovations with customers but also, again, ensure, for example, very secured special services. We're looking into further digitally twinning our network, which is, in fact, a replication in the virtual world of our physical network. And so you can imagine that at a certain moment in time, a technician will have a kind of augmented reality of the virtual network when he's doing an intervention. But mainly what we see now as well is with the AI that we put on top of it, that we can become extremely predictive. So the broadness of predictiveness, but also, in fact, the preciseness of this, yes, new AI technology upon our digital twin is really kind of very interesting and will, for sure, lead to more cost efficiency in maintenance. And then, of course, the network that we build today, you know that on that same production network, we already showcased 25 gigabit per second. So all the assets that are there -- physically built out there, it's not only for the 10 gig. It will as well before the 25 gig, for the 50 gig and for the 100 gig. Now let's maybe look first at video to explain quantum a bit more into detail. [Presentation]
Geert Standaert
executiveVoilà, an exciting era coming, and this was only a part of the innovations, many others. It was not an exhaustive list, but I would take too much time, and I don't want to do this because I want to hand it over to Jim to talk about the commercial momentum. Thank you.
Jim Casteele
executiveSo thank you, Geert. And Welcome, everybody, also from my side. Fiber is for us really a game changer when it comes to the residential market for Proximus. Over the last 15 years, we have been faced with competition that technologically had better arms than Proximus with the coax network versus the copper network. And now finally, with fiber, we can claim that product leadership. And with the launch of our 10 gigabit service at the end of last year, we can now offer speeds to our consumers that are 10x faster than the speeds you can get on the coax network. Now what does this bring for the consumer? Just one example, but there are multiple examples. When you think about downloading the latest full season of your favorite series, you can now do that in the blink of an eye. You no longer have to wait before you take a train, before you go to the fitness, before you go on holidays. It's just like that, that you have a full season downloaded on your mobile device. Of course, fiber brings much more than only more downstream with COVID. We have also started to work more and more from home. And one of the key characteristics of fiber is also a much better upstream capability versus coax technology. And then finally, fiber is low latency technology, which is typically also in the gaming segment, a really compelling argument to convince customers to come to fiber. So what we want to do now is as we are deploying fiber in Belgium, we want to engrave in the minds of every Belgium consumer and company that fiber is the best Internet technology around and that fiber is available at Proximus. We do this on the first side, of course, to our brand awareness campaigns where in 2022, for the first time, we had national campaigns talking about the benefits of fiber for Belgium society, on consumer sites and on business side. Of course, also all the innovations that Geert was talking about like demonstrating the next capabilities of fiber with 25 gigabit per second is also a way to continue to show and demonstrate that leadership. And then finally, of course, also in the areas where we are deploying actively fiber, we have our commercial campaigns where we push fiber flex to consumers and convince them to take this solution. So we are seeing positive results of all these efforts that we are doing. As you can see on the slide, already the fiber awareness in Belgium is 89% of Belgium know about fiber and 70% of our consumers associate fiber to the Proximus brand. And this is really key for us, and this is going to be something that we're going to continue to build in the coming months and years. So while Proximus is the brand that we want to associate to fiber in the minds of our customers, of course, we also continue to execute on our multi-brand strategy. So Proximus is our premium brand. It's a conversion brand focusing on multi-play bundles for families, and it will fully use the product leadership that fiber technology brings. Our premium solutions will be able to bring speeds up to 10 gigabit per second to the consumer, and this is the focus on the Proximus brand. We also have, of course, Mobile Vikings. Mobile Vikings that is targeted to consumers that are looking for data-centric Internet and mobile offers. It's more towards the cord cutter segment. And there, we focus on innovative experiences combined with good value for money. And then finally, Scarlet is our low-cost brand, a low-cost brand where speed is not at the core of the value proposal, but where we really focus on no-frills experience. So with these 3 brands, we aim to realize together with the business segment, 1 million fiber lines by the end of 2025. This is 1 year earlier than our previous commitments, and it also means that by the end of '25, 45% of our Internet customers will benefit from this fiber technology. And we are well on track to realize this target of 1 million fiber customers, thanks to our rigorous commercial execution. On the first sight, on our fiber flex portfolio, we are really building on that product leadership with speeds that are starting at 350 megabits per second going up to 1 gigabit and to 10 gigabit with the ultra-fiber solution. Of course, next to the connectivity part. We also offer a lot of appealing digital services like our Pickx entertainment platform, where we offer a bundled access of local and international content, but also a very convenient access to Disney+, to Netflix, which are actually also integrated in our commercial portfolio. And then, of course, we have Mobile Vikings and Scarlet to allow us to cover the full range of needs in the market. But as deployment has ramped up, we have also upscaled our commercial visibility to nationwide brand campaigns, combined, of course, with our continued regional commercial campaigns that we are doing on fiber flex. And this is also the ambition, of course, not only to make sure that people in new fiberhoods are aware of fiber, but that we continue also to boost penetration in the existing fiberhoods where fiber has been available for some time. And also our service engine has been geared towards fiber, but Renaud will come back on that later. And thanks to this rigorous commercial execution, we now see that we have a 2% point market share increase in areas where we have deployed fiber, and this 12 months after fiber has become commercially available. But also in this space at which we are migrating our existing customers, we are also accelerating. In 2022, we are able to migrate 50% of our copper customers to fiber in less than 6 months. This is 50% faster than what we did in 2020 and double as fast as what we had in 2018. And of course, this is also the result of what I just explained before. But we also use every interaction that we have with our customers to convince them to migrate to fiber. This is also, of course, important when we think about our copper outphasing ambitions. The faster we can migrate customers, the faster we can also outpace our copper network. So when we look at the value that we are able to create with these customers, we see that we have EUR 7 ARPC increase on fiber digital customers versus copper. Digital customers, and this is when we exclude promotions. When we include promotions, this uplift is still EUR 4. Of course, it's logical in fiber customer base. We have much more younger customers, newer customers. So the impact of promotions on the fiber customer base is higher than on the copper base, so that's logical that we have an impact on the ARPC on fiber as well. So how do we created that value? When you look at the Proximus fiber portfolio, there's a EUR 5 uplift between our copper portfolio and our fiber portfolio. And on top of that, thanks to fiber, we were able to reintegrate speed as a differentiator in our portfolio. This means when you go from the entry tier, which is bringing 350 megabit per second to the second tier, which is bringing 1 gigabit per second, this comes with a price increase of EUR 12. On top of that, you get other elements like a fixed line, additional Wi-Fi boosters. But in fiber, you also get that speed increase. And then on top of that, which is not yet accounted in that EUR 7 increase. With the launch of ultra-fiber, we now have our 10-gigabit technology with a EUR 30 price premium on top of that. So next to having a higher ARPC, we also see that our fiber customers are more satisfied with the products that we are offering them. We see a 7% point better satisfaction when it comes to the speed of the Internet connectivity, but we also see a 13% point better satisfaction when it comes to the Wi-Fi experience that our customers are enjoying on the fiber network. And this allows us to decrease the churn with 30% when we are comparing like-for-like in the aging of a customer, a copper customer with a fiber customer. So how do we get to that 13% point better customer experience on Wi-Fi. We have next to, of course, making sure that we bring that gigabit connectivity up to the home. We all know that the Wi-Fi experience at home is really critical for the overall experience that as a customer you have on the connectivity. So we have been working on bringing the best Wi-Fi service in the market. First of all, by making sure that on the hardware side, we use the latest Wi-Fi technologies, and we bring these to our customers. So we have launched Wi-Fi 6, but also Wi-Fi 6E technology. And this allows us to bring a combined 11 gigabit Wi-Fi bandwidth to our homes, of course, with a capping of 4.8 gigabit per user, but the combined bandwidth that allows us to truly bring that multi-gigabit experience in every corner of the house. On top of that, we monitor and we steer proactively the Wi-Fi experience of our customers through data analytics and machine learning. And then finally, to make sure that you enjoy Wi-Fi also in your daily life, we make it easy for our customers to share Wi-Fi credentials, for instance, with friends and families with a QR code. But we also help families to manage the screen time of devices connected to the Wi-Fi network. So to finish off this part of the presentation, with our fiber and our Wi-Fi experience, we are really able to bring a superior convergent experience to our customers that is product leading in the market. We have also been able to lead the market in Belgium in rolling out 5G, which has helped us to create positive brand value in doing so. And we have also secured our 5G leadership by acquiring significantly more spectrum than competition as well. Also when it comes to our digital platform Pickx, we have a superior experience with our Android TV decoder that gives a very convenient access to OTT applications. And we actually also see that when we look at how customers are consuming all the services that we provide them. We see that on the latest technologies on fiber, on 5G and on the Android TV, decoder customers spend much more time on Proximus solutions than what they did before. There are some data here. For instance, you can see fiber customers consume in the residential segment, 20% more data on their fiber line compared to copper. When it comes to 5G, we have 50% more mobile data usage on 5G customers versus average mobile data customers. And then finally, on our Pickx platform, when we look at Android TV, there is no difference in the consumption of local linear content, but we actually see that customers come to our Pickx platform to watch to Netflix and Disney+ rather than going to the digital platforms themselves. So this is what we really want to realize, making sure that people spend time on the solutions that we bring them so that we create value for them, that they are happy of being customers with Proximus. And then, of course, we also continue to execute our multi-brand strategy with Mobile Vikings and Scarlet. And I will now give the word to Renaud, who will dive into the operational benefits of fiber.
Renaud Tilmans
executiveThank you, Jim, and good afternoon to all. Jim has explained the commercial momentum linked to fiber, now, I will deep dive on the structural efficiency of fiber network. And fiber network will be cheaper to operate versus a copper network, as you see the figure here. We estimate that more than 50% reduction of cost to operate versus copper coming from 3 main opportunities. First, the self-installed capabilities in fiber, just certainly after the first connection to the customer, reducing the cost by EUR 70 per installation. Then of course, they are also structurally benefit in the reduction of repair costs, thanks to much lower order repair cost and to less in-home interventions, thanks to more stable product and more productivity in the monitoring. And on the top of this, the oozing of the copper network will allow to further reduce our maintenance and energy costs. And we will also avoid huge investment to maintain and upgrade our copper network. Just I will first go in more detail for the self-install case. This will boost progressively the self-installed use case with fiber because first, it's the best solution for many customers. There is no need for appointment. We can deliver the material via post and activate the customer in less than 3 working days. It will free up capacity also to accelerate our migration and it decreases the installation cost up to 80% by EUR 70 per customer. Then you see that with fiber, we can boost the self-installed capabilities, especially when the first connection is done. Because we can see remotely, if everything is okay, we can avoid outdoor intervention and thus we estimate that when fiber will be fully deployed, we can have more than 80% of self-installed. Then I will deep dive on the repair cost. Each time a customer is migrated from copper to fiber. And we already observed today a significant improvement of our repair cost. Just on the graph on the left slide, you see directly the fact that you can reduce by a factor for the order repair from copper to fiber. This meaning a significant reduction of the average repair cost for customers. And we will continue to improve this repair cost because the technology is more stable, and we will also decrease the number of indoor intervention. And as explained by Jim, we can also monitor the different devices at home to offer the best experience in a proactive way. You will see in this graph that the acceleration of our fiber investment will also allow to accelerate the speed of savings because we will not maintain 2 networks in parallel. You see on the graph the number of copper home passed decreasing to 0 in 35, and just with this acceleration of copper phaseout, just we have 5 years now between the start of the network build to the full decommissioning of a copper network. We'll continue to work on this to industrialize our process to migrate from copper to fiber and to accelerate the copper decommissioning. And it's important because it will allow us to save a lot of cost. You see then the fiber is fully deployed. We have more than EUR 120 million saved on a yearly basis, coming from less cost in customer operations, but also significant benefit in power and in maintenance. We will also avoid huge investment in copper. Because if we have to maintain at long term the copper network, it means we have very old generation copper cable, which needs to be renewed and we will avoid this kind of investment, and we estimate that we can avoid under EUR 30 million a year for the copper renewal. We will also avoid the one-shot investment linked to the upgrade of the VDSL platform towards 35 megahertz. And this is the one-off avoided costs you see in this slide. As Geert has mentioned, we have also a lot of innovation in customer operation like in network. And I will now deep dive on 3 use cases which will allow to further reduce our costs, but also to increase the customer experience. The first one is the Proximus digital Assistant, today fully deployed for the chatbot on all digital channels. We are working now on the voice bot to replace the drastic interactive voice happens to allow to detect the customer intent, to automate different use cases and to -- when needed to redirect the customer interaction towards human intervention with human touch. We have also AI in the field with image recognition, and we can use image recognition for a lot of use cases to improve the quality of the work, to check the business with the partners, but also to have a faster damage identification of cable. Last but not least, we are also using AI in all the workforce management to promote the next best action to detect and recommend the kind of technician to allow to do the intervention in the first-time-right way. There's a lot of future opportunity linked to AI just in customer operation to further improve the cost, but also to improve the customer experience. I will now give the floor to Mark, who will explain just the long-term free cash flow benefit to shareholders.
Mark Reid
executiveThanks, Geert, Renaud, Jim, for explaining our fiber strategy today. Let me now touch on the investment thesis here for fiber Proximus. There are many fiber stories in Europe today. But we here at Proximus, we believe we have a unique and different fiber story. Our ambition, as Guillaume said earlier, is cover 95% of homes passed in Belgium. We're already 20% of the way through there, and we're adding 10% a year. That's a really great pace. We have long-term ownership secured at around 70% through our arrangements that we've agreed with our joint ventures. And we believe that we've optimized the capital deployment with 20% of CapEx on our balance sheet with the rest being funded through our joint ventures through a mix of debt and equity, which I will come to. The accretive nature of our fiber investment is realized across multiple levers. First of all, market share gains. Jim alluded to it, we're already seeing 2 percentage point gains in deployed fiber areas 12 months after we've deployed them. And the ambition is to get to mid-single-digit market share gains. Fiber has a significant impact on keeping our customers happy with proven early evidence of reduced churn. And here, again, long term, we ambition to reduce churn by over 30% compared to our copper network. Customers are willing to pay additionally. Again, Jim, you saw this slide for fiber product, especially given the way that we work and we live today. Our long-term ARPC target is EUR 7. Again, early evidence is very supportive of that number. And finally, of the top line value drivers, we are an open network. And although we have 30 wholesale customers on our fiber network -- on our fixed network today, the opportunity to come to agreements with the larger players and providers in the market provides a significant path to incremental value, we believe. On the cost side, Renaud demonstrated that we have material cost benefits. Self-installation versus technical installation are 80% less expensive. Fiber repair efficiency can deliver 40% cost reduction. And copper phaseout will deliver material cost savings in power and maintenance of up to EUR 250 million annualized in regime. When it comes to networks, we've always been very clear that we fundamentally believe in ownership of our network. Why? The gate to gain ownership economics, the synergies of operating a network with a telco and the importance, Jim also touched on is, around social security, the sovereignty of networks in the future. With the agreements we have in place, we will come to own around 70% of our fiber network here in Belgium. That ownership level will be achieved at a very low cost with a purchase of 2 shares of each of our joint ventures. And we have the optionality in the north where we have the ability to purchase a further 10% of the Flanders network. Now let me turn to the JV structures. Let me highlight a few of the key points that I think are important to understand about the joint ventures that we've put in place. Firstly, we have agreements in place today already commercially scaling. For Fiberklaar in the north, Unifiber in the South and Go Fiber in the German-speaking community. Our discussions with the Belgium consortium partners on more rural joint ventures are progressing very well. We expect them to land by the end of summer 2023. The partners we have chosen bring capital, expertise and allow us to build those networks at a commercialized pace that we think gives us a significant advantage. The capital structure, we believe is optimal for such an initiative where we broadly fund the joint ventures with a debt level of around 50 to 70 percentage points during the construction phase. And as discussed in the previous slide, long-term ownership is secured in agreements at immaterial cost. Now let me take a couple of minutes on this slide. This slide represents a stand-alone free cash flow profile of our fiber investment program over the short, medium and longer term. Firstly, I would like to assure you that the return or IRR of this program is material above our WACC even given current financing situations. In the short term, free cash flow is obviously negative as we invest on our own balance sheet and commence the ramp-up of equity injections to support the joint venture build phase. And although the monetization is going really well as we migrate and win share, as Jim alluded to, this does not outweigh the initial investments in the period '22 through '25. In the medium term, we will deliver positive free cash returns, thanks to a more commercialized fiber network, higher network utilization and an on balance sheet CapEx has started to reduce materially. Long term, we will see significant free cash flow contribution as the fiber network is fully commercialized, investment period is behind us and no additional equity injections are required and the dividends start to commence from the JVs. In conclusion, we are building the best fiber network in Belgium efficiently, effectively in a pace. We'll take advantage of that network by using multiple levers to monetize the top line, but also to realize the efficiencies that come along with being a fiber-only network in the long term and resulting in a long-term value accretive investment for our shareholders. I'll conclude there, and I'll hand over to Anne-So to take us through the business section of our bold2025 strategy.
Anne-Sophie Lotgering
executiveSo good afternoon, everyone. I'm extremely pleased to be able to share with you some insights on our business activity here at Proximus. So what we'll do is I'll first give you some realizations, but most importantly, I'll give you some insights as well about our growth ambitions for the years to come. As you probably remember, in our 2020 CMD, we took 2 commitments. We said we would be back to growth in 2023. Indeed, we had foreseen to be flattish for '21 and '22 and that we would grow our share of IT revenues. I am very happy to stand here today and say that those 2 promises were not only delivered but over delivered as we returned to growth 1 year earlier than planned. Indeed, our business revenues remained stable from 2020 to 2021 and grew from '21 to 2022 in a challenging environment. The drivers behind the strong top line performance, both telco and IT. On telco, we were able to successfully grow mobile and fixed data, and we also experienced a positive impact on our fixed voice business because of the sanitary crisis. In IT, we witnessed a very strong performance in cloud and managed services, which help organically grow our IT revenues. In 2022, we also witnessed the positive impact from the partial IT products backlog being delivered. When you also look at the proportion of our telco versus IT in our total revenue, what you see is that we've been able to keep the proportion of telco revenues flat whilst growing our IT share in total revenues which is fully reflecting our ICT convergence strategy. You may ask, how did we realize this success? There's 5 unique assets that I thought I could give you some insights on First of all, our strong brand. 70% of the business customers know us for our ICT solutions according to the ICT awareness study that we run on a regular basis. This study also indicates that half of the corporate customers prefer Proximus as their solution provider. We've also been able to establish a very broad and deep customer reach. We've established relationships with 88% of the B2B decision-makers through our direct sales force but also through our wide indirect partner channel of 100-plus indirect partners. These indirect partners are a mix of telco, IT and ICT expert partners. And they offer a personal touch and ensure Proximus' local anchoring and service, essentially for our high small enterprise and SMB customers. Third asset is our full-scale partnership ecosystem. It's particularly important for us for 3 reasons. First of all, it provides an end-to-end offering for customers by strengthening our core complementary solutions such as Microsoft, for example, or HCL for our cloud offerings. It also provides us with learning and scaling opportunities, such as, for example, the sovereign cloud that we're building with Microsoft's Confidential Compute. And three, it enables us to tap into revenue pools of adjacent domains. The fourth, I would say, unique asset is the fact that we've also been investing and we house a rich pool of scarce and very much so after expertise, which we build to our customers, either through 1 shot consultative services or through our managed recurring services portfolio. Now these are industry-leading experts that drive today's innovation within ICT with our customers. Last but not least, our portfolio. Our portfolio combined solutions with exhausting services offerings and built as our unique ICT value proposition. For example, if a customer wants to think about its cloud strategy, we're able to provide consultative services, telling them which data should go on which cloud, whether private cloud or public cloud, how we're able to orchestrate it and how we're able to develop a technology road map that enables that. The installation services enabling that deployment road map. And last but not least, if the customer wishes to do so, we're able to actually manage and optimize those services through the life cycle of the contract. Where are we going next? Our ambition for the next 3 years, we aim to continue to grow our revenues driven by the growth in IT revenues whilst managing the Telco decline and this whilst maintaining a stable contribution margin. So let me dissect a little bit here. First on IT, we aim to increase our revenue proportion to more than 35%, driven by growth in strategic domains, such as cloud and security. This will be realized by our industrialized portfolio and our partnerships with HCL and Microsoft for sovereign cloud and others. We also do not only want to grow, but we also want to grow, increase our own market share. So we have the objective to grow faster than the market. Then from a telco perspective, we continue to monitor the declining market. But thanks to our convergent IT and telco strategy, our objective is to decline less than the market. And as a result of this convergence, we aim to have a stable contribution margin. Contribution margin is your revenues minus your cost of goods sold minus your direct OpEx. And your direct OpEx is the OpEx that you build to your customers whilst working with them on specific business projects. We mainly use the contribution margin for IT as direct OpEx is more than 80% linked to IT versus a capital-extensive telco business. Our future growth will 0be fueled by 3 strategic pillars. We will continue to drive smart telco value management. We are historically a telco player, and we will continue to manage our connectivity assets with excellence. Second, IT is our growth engine. We will strongly focus on cloud, on security and on our services. If you take our full security and cloud value chain end-to-end, it will drive more than 60% of our IT growth by 25%. And finally, by combining our technology-driven portfolio, our expertise and our open ecosystem of partners, we continue on innovating together with our customers. Indeed, thanks to our platform-based ICT building blocks, we co-create tomorrow's business models. So let me go through each of those pillars one by one and give you a little bit more insight in detail as to actually how we operationalize them. So first of all, smart value management within telco. We've shown extremely good resilience, thanks to smart pricing. For example, we actively stay above our contract value. We smartly monitor and optimize the value of the contracts through its life cycle. Let me give you an example. When we renew a mobile contract, we might see discounts in pack downgrade. However, 9 months later, we might be selling a packing extension. Two months later, we might decide to -- with a customer to upsell to an engaged pack, which is the leasing of mobile devices, which again is threefold revenues. So here, as you can see, through the life cycle of the contract we're actually able to stare the value of the contract for the customer. Our data-driven pricing algorithms are also helping us to maximize our ARPU, how it provides us with customer usage patterns, historic contract data, discount pair pricing, et cetera, and that enables us to provide proactive pricing in a data-driven manner to each of the different verticals that our customers belong to. And then smart price increases. We've successfully increased 70% of our telco revenues in mobile and fixed. Second is the value-accretive migrations. What does that mean? Well, first of all, we proactively migrate customers. For example, in the fixed voice market, we see the fixed voice market declining, yet we show resilience, thanks to proactively migrating our customers to new voice solutions in the cloud, such as Microsoft Teams or Operator Connect. Our fiber is also critical for our enterprises. Why? It enables them to do process automation, it enables them to do hybrid working, drive operational excellence, et cetera. And today, 70% of the earnings is covered with fiber. Customer delight. The quality of our telco solutions and customer self-serving web and app options drive customer delight across the board. Let me give you maybe a few examples. Our MPLS solution, which is commercially known as Explore, has historically speaking, been able to have an NPS which is higher by 11 -- plus 11 points of other telco solutions. Also, what we're able to see is that we have a contained uptake of SD-WAN because there's a limited opportunity of customers to optimize cost in Belgium. The ratio being much lower in Belgium versus other countries. Last but not least, we've also enriched our digital web and application portal with plus 56% active users versus 2019. And our new self-servicing capabilities resulted in 6x more admin self-service request, and it doesn't stop there. For the future, we aim to have a higher share of our active users and self-servicing requests. We've also a boost of our e-sales shares and e-billing, electronic billing to drive sustainability. Upselling. As I've mentioned before, we have a wide variety of professional services where we provide strategic advisory and technical consulting to our customers, such as the cloud services portfolio that I've mentioned earlier. But as we are an ICT service provider, we complement our telco solutions with IT solutions either in an end-to-end convergent or in an OTT manner. Next, if we look at our IT, our growth engine. I think here are 4 topics that I wanted to focus on. First of all, expanding our IT reach. We want -- we ensure that we have the IT solutions that are tailored to our various segments, including our smaller customers. Here, we provide a standardized solution, enabling our small customers to access simple security solutions such as manage, detect and response, but we also aim to provide SMEs with a digital security adviser that guides them in improving their cybersecurity maturity and resilience. We also enable SMEs to run their applications in the cloud. Second, and to give you an example, we have what we do here with the Federation of notaries in Belgium, where we offer modular packages that notaries can then build depending on their size and needs, their size and needs on connectivity, on security, what teleworking solutions do they need. And these solutions are supported by a dedicated help desk. 95% of notaries in Belgium are already implemented this solution. Second of all, partnerships. I alluded how valuable partnerships are in our strategies for the last 3 years, and they continue to be very much so in the next 3 years. First of all, we will be launching our sovereign cloud offering with Microsoft. It's very critical for the Belgian end market, but also in Luxembourg. It aims at providing customers with full sovereignty while giving access to features usually available only on the public cloud, such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, et cetera. We will also be continuing on working with HCL, where the partnership doesn't just touch cloud, but also other areas such as workplace and housing. To give you an example of what we do here with the customer, I've -- we have the log of BAM Interbuild, which is the biggest construction company based in Antwerp where here, we've migrated them to our Fusion cloud hybrid offering. And we host our IT in a pay-as-you-use manner whilst providing as well the security and the connectivity to their clouds. Next up, portfolio innovation. Here, there's 2 major technological changes that I thought I would inform you about. First of all, from an on-premise security to security in the cloud. SecaaS, security as a service offering in the cloud, means that we replace currently on-site protection by cloud-native protection solutions and extend the protection from on-site and Proximus data centers to public data centers. Also from SD-WAN to SASE. With SASE borders between network and security blur. It's an emerging offering that combines connectivity capabilities with comprehensive network security functions in a cloud-based approach. Here, we have the example of a banking customer in Belgium called Argenta. Here, we've delivered the most important and the largest security managed service in the cloud solution with managed tech response and vendor management services, both residing in the Proximus cloud, and we also provide professional and managed services. Last but not least, [ SecaaS ] we, of course, are always looking at upselling in our existing customer base, whether through our consultative services portfolio, through security as a service, which is a worry-free as-a-service outsourcing model or cloud as a service or many others. Here, you have an example of Sibelga, where we provide full care security support solution with complementary engineering services. Three is the fact that we also differentiate by providing selected ICT services on top of our gigabit network. This is what our strategy looks like. The foundation of all our services is our gigabit network for 5G and fiber. On top of this connectivity layer, what you see is we offer ICT products and solutions, IoT, digital workplace, analytics, AI, cloud and security. We offer these services both in a convergent way by combining IT and telco blocks, such as, for example, 5G edge and IoT. And we can also offer them independently from the underlying infrastructure, and that's what we mean with over-the-top, i.e., we deliver security and network control completely independently of the connectivity layer. To help our customers build use cases of the future, leveraging our gigabit network, we set up innovation hubs. These enable our customers to co-create and test use cases leveraging 5G. And we've set up different hubs with different partners such as A6K, Fabric Logistic [indiscernible] enabling us to have concrete use cases in the areas of logistics, manufacturing, et cetera. In the video on the next slide, what you will see is what we've done in Fabric Logistic. Fabric Logistic is a demo center in Ghent, which enables us to, via mobile private network, ask our customers to come and test different use cases in the e-commerce area or actually in the warehousing area. And here, what you will see in the video is a proof of concept that we've done with DroneMatrix, where thanks to image label recognition and the 5G MPN, a drone is able to navigate within the warehouse and manage stock. This example shows how we, as a company, can combine various ICT building blocks, the 5G network, the cloud, the analytics and the artificial intelligence. So I'll run the video for you. [Presentation]
Anne-Sophie Lotgering
executiveSo this smart, I would say, use case shows not only that we can apply this for the logistics center, but we can also use drones for all sorts of different use cases, thanks to our 5G technology. Whether actually in the Port of Antwerp, we also do things like inventory maintenance, but also in health. This is a very important use case for us, but you see that we don't only look at logistics and warehousing, we also look at other verticals where we see the need and opportunity to unlock new opportunities and drive a smarter, more connected and data-driven world. You will see here the entertainment industry first. With this example, we won at the broadcast and media project of the year and international recognition for video contribution next-generation network. We delivered the first rate connectivity setup, thanks to our fiber and 5G network, where we also equipped our mobile cameras with 5G. And for the sporting fanatics amongst you and specifically football fans, what did it mean for them? Well, it meant that they could experience a live football match with very high-quality images whilst the video-assisted referees could actually look at the video recordings during the match and make sure that the penalties were the correct ones. In another vertical, we use 5G and we test 5G in health care and everything that's linked with public and safety services. Here, you see an example of where -- with the University Hospital of Brussels, we created the connected ambulance of the future as inter-hospital transport compose a challenge. We built and tested a fully connected and well-equipped ambulance with IP cameras to deliver the best aid in challenging circumstances. What does it mean? It means that assistance or telemedicine is made possible through the Proximus 5G connectivity, where from a distance, a doctor who is at the hospital, can actually view the situation that's happening on the field with the first-line support. They can assess the situation and assist the first aid, e.g. check vitals. And this success -- this is a very successful use case as used at Brussels. We will organize a launch event in 2023. Hopefully, those examples have shown you how much we've been able to cocreate and build with our customers using the 5G technology of tomorrow, but mainly also of today. If I were to summarize what are the 3 takeaways I'd like you to keep on top of mind. First of all, we will continue to manage our Telco value in a smart and sustainable way. Our DNA connectivity will be the ground layer for us to innovate together with our customers as we create new cases and enable new technologies such as Internet of Things, cloud integration, security as a service, edge and so much more. Second of all, IT is our growth engine and will be strongly driven by our cloud solutions, a field in which as we've hopefully been able to demonstrate we continue to pioneer scale innovation and grow our share but also our security solutions in which we already lead today and will continue to leverage our [ wild ] pool of experts and end-to-end value proposals with complementary service. Last but not least, we will continue to excel by executing on our rigorous transformation plan. And that transformation plan touches upon the transformation of our people our portfolio, our tools and our processes. With all of these, we will continue to be the leading Benelux ICT service provider. And this being said, I will hand over to Guillaume, who will introduce the next session on our international expansion with TeleSign and BICS. Thank you very much.
Guillaume Boutin
executiveThank you. And so we still have 2 sessions before wrapping up and the next one covers our international expansion, as already said by Anne-Soph. And so I already entered on this topic to mind. Let's now deep dive into how international allows it to evolve fully the profile of the Proximus Group. That perspective, Joe and Matteo in that order will provide insights into the 2022 performance of both businesses, both Telesign and BICS. And I will then conclude this session with a few words. Joe, I think the floor is yours.
Joseph Burton
executiveGreat. Thanks so much, Guillaume. I'll spend a few minutes talking about the road ahead at TeleSign and a little more about what we do. Before we go there, though, I'd like to do a quick recap of 2022 and some of the great progress we've already made at Telesign. It was a very strong year that created a terrific foundation for the future at Telesign. Our expected revenues for 2022 in excess of EUR 450 million. Very stable net revenue retention of about 124%. So once our enterprise customers, I'll talk more about in a few minutes, sign up for Telesign, they tend to stay and they continue to -- they tend to spend more year after year. Direct margin was over EUR 100 million for the year. And our sales bookings, I was extremely excited about. We're actually up about 81% year-over-year with more than 60% of our bookings coming from our higher-margin digital identity business. So very exciting. Number of employees at Telesign continue to move up from about 507 to in excess of 700 employees as we're really finding those data scientists and skilled sales people across the world that we need to fuel our growth. Some of the highlights that I was particularly proud of were some great mentions in worldwide analyst reports from Gartner, Forrester and some of the others rebranding of Telesign around continuous trust in the digital economy being a big part of what we're doing and I was extremely pleased that Telesign was named one of the great places to work in the United States in 2022. Just a very, very nice achievement. New product innovations as we launched our self-service product that Guillaume mentioned earlier. So an actual ability for a smaller, small- to medium-sized business or even an individual developer to access the same digital identity and customer engagement tools through a self-service portal that we offer to some of the biggest customers in the world. Silent verification, age verification and Telesign health care the ability to actually interact with health care customers in support of U.S. and many other regulatory environments around the world safely and securely. Just something that really is helping a lot of our customers. And you see some of our new major customer wins across the bottom of this slide, from Alibaba, Gojek and many, many others. Okay. So what does Telesign do? I know we don't talk too much about it here. So I wanted to give a brief tutorial on some of this before we go back to some of the growth vectors for the future. You probably interact with Telesign multiple times in a day if you know it or not, as you're living your life online. So on social media, interacting with financial services through your mobile device, online gaming, enterprise software and beyond Telesign is there, connecting, protecting and defending all of the interactions you have throughout your day. So when you're signing on to social media, Telesign is there in the background, making sure that it's really you, really your mobile phone and not a bot or someone that's stolen your digital identity. Same thing when you're signing in through fintech, where they're making sure that it's really you, not someone who's stolen your SIM card or has created some other kind of cyberattack. So going down, down, down through each and everything that you do online, Telesign is there in the background, making sure the biggest brands and their consumers are protected and yet easy. So how do we do all that? Well, I think of it very much across these 4 use cases. Any time an enterprise, an application or an e-commerce site wants to have a relationship with a consumer, with someone with a mobile phone or with a web browser, 4 things have to happen during the life cycle of that relationship. Starting down on the bottom left, first of all, when you go to sign up for an account, when you download a new application or you go to a site on the web, there has to be a secure onboarding. So we have to actually make sure that it's really you really your mobile phone, not someone with your digital identity and yet we've got to do that very, very easily. If we have to ask the end user, 10, 15 questions to establish their identity, they'll simply abandon the process. With Telesign and our worldwide information and artificial intelligence, we're able to be sure with just a couple of questions that it's really you making it easier and safer than it is with many, many other systems. Now once you've established an account, we need to make sure that we have account integrity. So every time the end user on their mobile phone or from a web browser wants to reach out to the website or the website wants to reach out to them, we need to make sure that it's really still Joe, it's really still Joe's mobile device. Once again, no account takeover attempts. Telesign once again, does this extremely well for users in over 190 countries across the world. Once we have identity fully established, we have to be able to engage the customer. So the customer needs to be able to securely message the enterprise. The enterprise has to be able to message the customer over text messaging, voice, WhatsApp, Viber and many other systems. Once again, Telesign has them covered. And then, of course, lastly, anytime something of value is being exchanged through the mobile device. So this could be paying for a taxi, paying for lunch or exchanging a digital good on a gaming platform Telesign is there to help in the background, ensure that both parties and both mobile devices are really who they're supposed to be. So who are some of the people we do it for? Well, once again, while we deliver to consumers in virtually every country around the world, we're doing this on behalf of enterprises. The enterprise companies that actually buy from Telesign are global, over 65 different countries that we have paying customers in. About 30% of our revenues come from outside the United States. And I already mentioned we have about 700 employees around the world, making this happen. Blue-chip customer base, Guillaume mentioned earlier. So 8 of the 10 largest brands on the Internet are using Telesign at scale every single day, along with about 1,700 other companies that are paying Telesign every single day. 137% net revenue retention on average, 124% the last year or 2. And we have a strong technical moat to keep us out in front. About 35 patents in digital identity and multifactor authentication, and we're verifying over 21 billion identities per year at this point. So the market opportunity for Telesign remains large, protecting end users. One of the things that I'm so passionate about, about 1 in every 4 account creation attempts last year was a fake. Without Telesign there, those are needless account creations where enterprise resources are being stolen. The attempts to actually log on as a legitimate user are up 300% over the last couple of years and 86% of us have been a victim of some level of identity fraud or another. So with Telesign, we can connect, protect and defend all of these interactions and make the digital economy work the way we'd like it to. Communications fraud is becoming a huge problem. So IRSF fraud attempts. International revenue share fraud is now an $8 billion a year problem. Each and every attack averages about $50,000 in losses for vendors around the world. And this has gone up 6x over the last 10 years. Once again, Telesign can integrate massively reduce all of this and restore safety to communications. Messaging efficiency, another huge use case for Telesign, about $3.5 billion of messaging is being paid per year by vendors for messages, they're asked to deliver, but they're actually either fake or undeliverable. With Telesign, we can make sure those messages are deliverable. They get to the right person in every country around the world by actually checking their identity in the likelihood that they're deliverable before we ever even try. So our strategy going forward is underpinned by 4 growth pillars. First of all, it's a growing market for us. So as we all continue through digital transformation using our mobile devices and using online services for more and more of what we do. The market grows very, very well, and Telesign is going to continue growing with the market or even above. Value chain expansion. We find even more places that Telesign can get involved to protect every interaction that we're doing. So there's new use cases around privileged access management, document verification. Literally, every place somebody is accessing a service from their mobile device, there's a role for Telesign to play in making sure that it's secure and easy. I already mentioned, moving into new use cases and new customer segments. So with our self-service tool that's allowing us to quickly get into the -- to quickly get into smaller businesses, other verticals like Healthcare that I mentioned earlier, just a great expansion. We're also expanding geographically. So we're rapidly building out our sales teams worldwide to continue capturing more and more business outside of the United States. So I mentioned the self-service portal. This is really exciting. So we were already offering all these services to the biggest companies in the world, but we launched in December of last year. So 60 days ago, the ability to have these very sophisticated messaging and security products through a self-service for small- to medium-sized business. We've already had more than 2,800 trial accounts and 130 smaller paying customers sign up. This really, I think, is a validation that this is going to be a very nice addition for us going forward. It enables people to try and -- to try very quickly and then actually purchase SMS, phone ID, all these different products to make sure that we have the right stuff that we have the right people each and every time somebody signs on to a website. So expect more to come on this as we add more features to it and really scale this through 2023. So we feel like we're on the right track to deliver our ambitions and to really shift towards digital identity. Our mix is already moving from the core messaging business that is still very important to us towards digital identity. Just a year or 2 ago, we were at 47% digital identity that our customers were purchasing already in the third quarter, this was up to 62%. So we feel like our revenue growth and our margin growth is right on track for where we were trying to go. And with that, I will hand it over to Matteo.
Matteo Gatta
executiveGood afternoon, Happy New Year to all. Thank you, Joe, for handing over to me. So my objective today is to tell you a bit the transformation story around BICS. And the steps ahead, of course, together with our customer, our partner and our shareholder at Proximus. So in a nutshell, a few numbers. Of course, we're talking about an expectation of 2022, but some numbers are pretty clear. Just maybe a couple of comments. BICS as an organization is truly global. We employ 50 nationalities around the world for us, you know, the global footprint is also a cultural footprint. So we are very proud of that. Thanks to that, we're actually able to retain a lot of customers for a long time. Our customer relationships are very sound based on mutual trust. We often call them partners rather than customers. And this philosophy is also now moving with us towards the diversification in the digital enterprise. Another element, which I would like to flag, which some of you knew already, we are still talking about a fairly CapEx-light business, because we're highly transactional. BICS last year had about EUR 30 billion transactions, excluding signaling for roam. So it's a great platform of scale. One element which is new to you, that we have mentioned to you in the past disclosure is our revenue growth into the enterprise space, essentially for enterprise, we call digital players, hyperscalers, institutions and an enterprise that is going through the digital transformation. Not too relevant in terms of product innovation, as Guillaume already mentioned, we are very proud of making some interesting and important steps in the next generation of roaming, which we'll be dealing about not only among Telcos but among many, many other brands. Thanks to democratization of mobile technology. Also, we are probably on the eve of the massive IoT, thanks to also eSIM and iSIM, even more importantly, and of course, we are moving towards more software embedded into our communications. I'll come to that in a minute. First of all, just in a nutshell, so what is BICS? We are known to be, of course, Telco carrier's carrier, so very proud to be. Our business model is simply. So we capture -- we source connectivity and communication needs on a global scale. Those discrete elements, we are -- they are bundled together in capabilities that we sell to our Telco customers under different shape or forms, for instance, one-stop shop or entirely outsourcing propositions, but also more and more to new players because we package them to integrate into their processes and into their applications, whether these applications are on-prem or increasingly, and that is an excellent good news for BICS into the hyperscaler cloud. By doing so, we are automatically transforming our operations, making them future-proof because as more and more workloads moving to the cloud, our infrastructure, meaning our network our platform, also contain [indiscernible] or low latency, which is critical to handle communications on a global scale. Well, this slide might be new to you as probably a surprise. It was a surprise to me actually where if I look back at when I took the job, basically, the diversification of BICS is a fact already. Yes, we are a carrier's carrier. We are very proud to be one of them. We are a leader in that segment. we serve the best telcos in the world, even those that are operating in an environment, which is far less comfortable than this room. So I'm very proud of that. And our customers tell us that we are dependable, high-quality and they entrust business towards us as we have seen with the strategic deal announced this year with Ooredoo Group. At the same time, though, we continue our diversification slowly but surely, a stepwise diversification which does not impact our cost to serve, which brings additional externalities to our platform so that we continue to deliver superior cash conversion. So some examples, for instance, Everbridge we provide them the capability to deliver alert messages in disaster situation on a global scale. Another example, for instance, we are proud partner of Dish, which is about -- which is the new entrant in the U.S. We have recently partnered with Lynk to create satellite to phone direct connectivity bundled as our global roaming proposition. But more importantly, in the growth area, we are one of the -- we are a hyperscaler provider to upper-scale or the connectivity needs for, for instance, call center in the cloud, Operator Connect or Microsoft teams, mentioned by Anne-Sophie before on a global scale. Those players teach us more and more. So we learn from them, but we also grow our business. More importantly, we are getting into new ecosystems to be part of the foundations for the growth in devices, thanks to eSIM, but not only devices because eSIM is likely to change dramatically the mobile landscape. And on top of that, of course, we -- thanks to our scale, thanks to a number of transactions. We protect end users, and our customers are very happy with that, from fraudulent use of communications, which is a nuisance from a reputational perspective for our customers. Finally, just the last word on the real -- I mean, emerging trend that we see more and more enterprises as a part of the digital transformation, they are renewing their -- the way they do business and they have embraced, they are embracing mobile technology because they are perceived as more agile, more secure, and they are internalizing that. And we are there to interconnect those private network towards the public network on a global scale because no business is an island. Every business is connected. So with this chart, it's a fair attempt to give you an idea of our total addressable market. Of course, it's a composite because BICS is a transforming business. So through legacy, core and, of course, fast-growing markets. In legacy, of course, this is -- [ de facto ] is a declining market, but we are creating tons of value with that thanks to our superior scale and sophistication of our processes. At the same time, what we are seeing, thanks also from the COVID rebound, we are seeing that our core, which is essentially mobility and messaging is benefiting from 2 factors from more and more people willing to travel, but also more objects. So we have seen, based on our platform, about 45% increase in object roaming, okay? They were not impacted by COVID. This is really growth into the market. We are able today at BICS to distinguish roaming behavior from humans versus object. And this is very critical when it comes to creating use cases for our customers. The fast-growing market are essentially in the area of enabling CPaaS, UCaaS and CCaaS, okay? So because as I said, they need quality footprint on a global scale, certainly serving IoT players, players that come with use cases and so -- and on top of that private network. So we -- as the big transformation takes place, our exposure to market growth is very clear going forward, at the same time though, we are proud of what we are able to deliver today as well. Well, coming back, you may ask yourself, but what's your right to win? Why -- what is your -- what are your credentials? What's your -- on which basis is your story lying basically grounded. So I took back the -- well, the segmentation in legacy, core and growth to give you a bit of a perspective on that. So it's clear who we are today. We are a leader in value optimization of legacy traffic stream. This is really critical because those traffic stream are still very important, actually, when it comes to customer experience that really matters, but both the technologies and the competencies among -- within our Telco customers are de facto no longer there. These are expensive renewal investments they don't want to do. So more and more, they're entrusting this business towards us. They ask us to deliver predictable quality, predictable business performance. And this is what we do and thanks to our superior aggregation power as well as our sophistication of our trading floors, we are able to create economical benefits. We say that every 1 minute of voice generate 1.8x minutes of voice back, so you can create leverage through that. The core, if I were to simplify core with mobility, what we are seeing. Well, we have 20 years of experience of mobility and roaming. That is a tremendous advantage when it comes to offering these competencies to a broader set of customers out there, well beyond the traditional Telco operators because we see democratization of mobile services. There is spectrum given to enterprise, spectrum for rent, there is the entry barriers to deploying private network is lowering. And we are there to connect them basically. We are also there to manage legacy. So transition between 2G to 3G, we're outpacing our 3G, outpacing our 2G to embrace 4G. That's complexity of legacy management in terms of roaming agreements, creates opportunity for BICS because we can do these operations in a scalable manner. So we have built an advantage based on our 20 years of experience on that, the first mover advantage in services in enhanced mobility for enterprise, and we are able to deliver value, managing complexity. In the growth area, again, for simplicity, I focus on digital communication as a services. For us, IoT one day, it is already as a service, but we'll also -- object will also join the CPaaS conversation. For us, it's critical here. So we see clearly a downstream disintermediation, thanks to the workloads and the application moving towards the cloud. And as the application move towards the cloud, communication means go to the cloud. And that's where the opportunity for big slice. So what we are doing, we are rebuilding our services progressively through API so to enable players that are digital native, but also enterprises that embrace additional transformation to use our capability on a global scale. And this is important to stress no player out there can really be a global player. So there are plenty of opportunity for us. These value chains are still information and the market is still fragmented. So great opportunity for us. Thanks to what? What is our advantage? Our advantage is to have a dependable and cost-competitive footprint reach, which is also not only -- it's also based through local interconnect because they come with higher superior quality and lower latency to serve the application better. Finally, this takes to my last slide, but I'd like to recap for you, what are the 3 levers of the transformation story of BICS since Proximus bought fully BICS, we started a journey, the journey that basically is based on 3 pillar. Fundamentally, we are a leader. We want to grow the, leadership, we want to continue to scale, thanks to more traffic stream that we in-source. We also offer one-stop solutions for our Telco in managing their multiple legacies, which are becoming underperforming for them. At the same time, we have started and is delivering a step-wise diversification in the digital enterprise. This comes with -- this, in turn, brings additional externality to our platform, already at scale. We are repackaging our services, thanks to software and APIs, and we are offering our capabilities to a large number of players out there which they've identified in -- which have communication needs on a global scale. Finally, which has always been baked into the DNA of BICS to be -- to have operating margin with -- which are remarkable. And today, what most importantly, thanks to the additional business that we are getting, both through leadership in Telco as well as to diversification in enterprise. We continue to sustain and we intend to sustain this operating margin, thanks to operating leverage and efficiency and continuous adoption of new technologies such as also artificial intelligence in our trading flow. So in essence, we feel very comfortable in saying that we see direct margin growth with mix improvement based on what I said, thanks to the stepwise diversification and digital enterprise, and we will continue to sustain our operating margin. Thank you.
Guillaume Boutin
executiveThank you Joe and Matteo for -- this it's not working, it's working. So I think you understood that if you want to love Proximus, you have to love tech, you have to love -- move to software. You have to love platform-based businesses. And I hope that you understand that from what we just said since a few hours now. So I will now conclude this session on [ international ] with a few elements before handing it over to Mark for the financial outlook. Indeed, I wanted to reemphasize a few elements that I briefly touched upon during my intro. And in particular, the profound evolution of the profile of our group, now structured around 2 very different legs as summarized here on this slide. On the left, we have our domestic businesses or more traditional activities, where we focus on value management and need to cope with high CapEx requirements. And then on the right, we have our international assets just described by Matteo and Joe. This second leg is really Proximus secret sauce. It allows us to be exposed to fast-growing markets in different geographies. It enables us to create value creation -- to generate value creation from CapEx-light activities. And those are platform-centric businesses, which enables capability and as Matteo mentioned, operational leverage. And there, of course, the playbook is different. We focus on growth. And as it is the case for all tech players, we invest in IP. We innovate to capture more and more value. And as explained earlier, we know the playbook and how to execute on it. I think we have very, very strong proof points, thanks to the exceptional performance of BICS and Telesign over the past months and quarters. And I think we did create substantial value since full acquisition in 2021. I will not come back into the -- all the successes that has been shared by Joe and Matteo earlier, but I would like to highlight one specific number that really illustrates how we are really accelerating. In 2022 we increased our sales booking, and you said it Joe, for Telesign by more than 80% year-over-year, with more than half of this in the super fast-growing market of digital identity. And obviously, we don't want to stop here. We have high ambitions with a continued high single-digit direct margin growth for the next 3 years. More and more, we want to deliver high free cash flow conversion, driven, as I said, by low CAPEX intensity, a favorable OpEx base when we scale and importantly, less funding needs that initially foreseen for Telesign. Taking all of this together, 4 key elements to keep in mind for this international station. With the acquisition of BICS and Telesign at attractive valuation, we have a solid base to expand globally. Furthermore, this makes our group stronger, and that's super important. We can cover all the digital communication needs of our customers while building operational and commercial synergies. This international leg is also a strong value catalyst. We are exposed to fast-growing markets, while we keep strategic optionalities and finally, we improved our overall risk profile, thanks -- thanks to diversifying our product and regional focus and so a strong midterm cash generation for that's international leg. I think that concludes the international side of the presentation. I will now leave the floor to Mark for the financial outlook.
Mark Reid
executiveThank you, my dear colleagues. I think you've done a great job today explaining our bold '25 strategy. As you can see, the management team is super behind the strategy. And we've spent a lot of time thinking it put it together, and I hope you conclude with us that it's going to be a winning strategy. Let me -- I'm sorry, we got a little bit. Let me take you through a little bit now of what the financial strategy and outlook that underpins bold '25 but before I do that, let me almost wrap up '22 and the inspire '22 period. Inspire2022, we set out again some bold ambitions. Overall, we broadly met those objectives, and we wanted to reach between '19 and '22. Although the full year is not exactly closed. We're very comfortable ending 2022. And the guidance that we've provided with you in October of last year, we're very sound in. And so you can expect us to report on the 17th of February when we conclude our full year results officially, the domestic revenue for '22 will grow around 2%. Our domestic EBITDA will grow in the upper range of 0% to 1%. Our CapEx will close at EUR 1.3 billion. Our net debt-to-EBITDA will be 1.6x our EBITDA on approximate definition. And we will have sustained a 3-year stable dividend of EUR 1.2 per share and returned nearly EUR 1.2 billion to the shareholders over the Inspire '22 period. And so we're very proud of being able to execute that strategy. But now the future bold '25 as game set out and the team alluded to is a growth strategy that will create long-term value for our shareholders. Within that strategy, the ambitions, I think we've now set out are clear. We will grow our domestic revenue and return our EBITDA to the level of '22 by 2025. And we'll accelerate our international business EBITDA and aim direct margin of high single-digit CAGR growth. We will grow our group EBITDA as from 2024 and with '25 EBITDA slightly above the '22 level. Our CapEx will come back to normalized levels after the peak in 2023. And our goal is to maintain a sound financial position by rebasing our dividend coverage, and we commit to a long-term free cash flow growth trajectory. Let me start with the domestic perspective. We have a commercial strategy that the team set out today in place and has illustrated that we will deliver top line growth. In all customer segments: consumer, business, wholesale, in spite of the anticipated market landscape, which will impact some specific products. We expect to achieve that through a combination of measures. Firstly, fiber migration. Win back will drive growth. We explained that to you earlier today, we see strong results already. Secondly, we believe that smart value management pricing, combined with our convergent leadership, will continue to drive top line growth, both increasing ARPC and reducing churn. Our multi-brand strategy has us ideally positioned to meet the needs of our customers in all segments and all positions as well as to face any changes in the market landscape. Anne-Sophie set out how we will manage the value transformation of our telecommunications business, migrating customers to new technologies while sustaining value and keeping churn at a minimum. We also see strong opportunities to grow and further IT space, specifically cloud security, where we have some of the best capabilities and partnerships that put us among the best leaders in this space. Furthermore, we intend to achieve growth, somewhat prudent assumptions from a wholesale perspective. So that provides further support, especially on our fixed network side. And on the OpEx side, overall, I think we've done an excellent job in managing the inflationary pressures to date with an effective hedging strategy and cost savings programs that we have already delivered material savings of EUR 230 million between 2019 and today. We do foresee an increase in our OpEx base in the coming 3 years, mainly linked to inflation and fiber-driven customer connections, which will support the top line migration and win back that we mentioned earlier. Transformation, IT transformation costs will increase slightly, but the majority of the IT transformation is already behind us. To mitigate the impact of this, we'll continue to be laser-focused on cost and have identified additional cost savings in the bold '25 period that will allow us to increase our overall savings commitment from EUR 400 million to EUR 450 million, a further EUR 220 million from this point until 2025. And in contrast to the first wave of our efficiency program, we will realize those cost savings without a structural headcount plan. Now in a trajectory to a stable 2025 domestic EBITDA, we will cope with significant inflation impacts that the world has seen. The coming year, we expect to face the highest inflationary headwind. Wage indexations from '22, where we had -- we were impacted by 5 wage indexations throughout that year will flow into 2023 and a further 2 indexations are expected in the calendar year 2023. Our energy costs are now fully hedged for '23, but we will still face around a EUR 35 million year-over-year headwind from increasing energy costs. Other costs, other OpEx costs are impacted, but we continue to be protected by long-term contractual arrangements and optimization of those costs. Overall, these impacts of inflation will weigh on the domestic EBITDA trajectory of 2023,, which we estimate to be around a 9% headwind. We will, for a big part, be able to offset this by revenue growth and cost savings. But still, we do estimate the domestic EBITDA for 2023 will decline by around 3%. Turning to the overall plan to address these cost increases. Our execution of the first part of our cost savings program has given great confidence in the ability of Proximus and its management team to deliver the increased plan between now and 2025. And the '22 to '25 cost savings will come from 3 main buckets. First of all, workforce, we will continue to manage natural outflow [indiscernible] and contractor sourcing, third-party workforce. Secondly, our digitalization, IT modernization program will continue to reap benefits and deliver cost savings. And finally, network, energy and discretionary spend will represent over 30% of spend optimizations delivered through our overall savings program between now and 2025. This savings program, combined, will give us a plan that will get domestic EBITDA back to growth by 2024 and allow us to return domestic EBITDA back to the '22 level by 2025. And that's supported by the revenue growth that we illustrated with the commercial momentum, the targeted pricing measures that we will be able to put in the market and mitigating the inflationary impact by capturing substantial cost savings that I just mentioned. This all while managing the new market structure. Turning to the International segment of Proximus Group. And as Guillaume and Matteo and Joe highlighted, these businesses give us a unique pathway to growth both Telesign and BICS are exposed to and have been capturing double-digit direct margin growth in their markets. Overall, the international revenues will be greater than EUR 1.8 billion by 2025, reflecting nearly 1/3 of Proximus' group revenue. Direct margin for this business will grow high single-digit CAGR. What makes this business very attractive is the high cash flow conversion element. As the revenue and direct margin of these international businesses grow, the investment cycle, particularly from Telesign, will pass, and both Telesign and BICS will enjoy positive scale effects on their OpEx and a stable low CapEx base, and as a result, the free cash flow that grows in this business will accelerate faster than direct margin growth. So all in all, as I outlined before, after a short-term negative impact of inflation. The execution of our bold '25 strategy will be executed via fiber migration and win backs. Convergence leadership supported by our product superiority, multiband strategy, which will support growth, but will also defend against the new market structure. Value optimization across both residential and business, capture of new growth B2B markets in cloud, IT, security, advanced workplace and our ability to continue to deliver cost savings between now and 2025 and then finally, with the increased the proven ability of the international growth strategy, this will deliver group EBITDA plan despite the magnified inflationary impact of 2023 and the fourth entrant market structure change will stabilize and return to growth by 2024. Turning to our investments in CapEx over the next year and in line with what we said to you before, we are reaching our CapEx peak in 2023. Our own fiber build CapEx will start to reduce in the coming years. The build volumes will transition to the joint ventures as we illustrated in the fiber section of today's presentation. Customer CapEx will increase modestly, supporting the migrations and win-back volume supporting the top line growth and other CapEx will reduce as mobile 5G rollout will be completed by 2025 and our IT-related CapEx returns to a more normalized level. Our focus on IT deployment efficiency, long-term contractual commitments and program optimizations will allow us to return to CapEx levels closer to EUR 1 billion by 2025 despite the inflationary pressures on some domains. During bold '25, we'll continue to focus on leveraging our balance sheet and optimizing the monetization of noncore assets. Overall, we plan to realize over EUR 400 million of divestments during the period, including the receipt of EUR 143 million of cash from the sale of our Brussels headquarters. The remaining divestments will realize through the sale of noncore infrastructure and property assets, but does not include any monetization of our International segment assets or the Belgian mobile towers. Bold2025 delivers top line growth, EBITDA stability mitigated for market structure and inflationary impact whilst managing a return to normalized CapEx profile. The result in free cash flow profile of the business is supported in the short term by deploying the balance sheet in an optimized way in anticipation of the longer-term investment returns that will be delivered by the domestic fiber investment program and international growth trajectory. Overall, this results in free cash flow returns back to growth in 2024 and beyond. Given careful consideration to our overall bold '25 plan, the Board has approved that we keep for the year 2023, a stable dividend of EUR 1.2 per share, and we will rebase our dividend to a sustainable level for 2024 and 2025 to EUR 0.6 per share. The rebased sustainable level incorporates all our current known macro and inflationary headwinds, expected changes in the market structure and this will allow Proximus to keep a sound debt level, ensuring flexibility to further grow our business. The financial profile of bold '25 resulted in a net debt to EBITDA during the 3-year period between 2.5x and 3x EBITDA, which we would view to keep us in a solid investment-grade credit rating and continue to be comfortable range for a business like Proximus. Our longer-term considerations, the reconsolidation of the fiber JVs, we would still aim to continue to remain under 3x leverage. Our continued strong credit position provides us good access to the credit markets looking at our debt maturity profile, our refinancing over the upcoming '24 and '25 bonds have already been hedged at '22 rates. And overall, liquidity debt tenure and weighted cost of debt are in an optimized order given the current economic cycle. Now looking at Proximus Group over a more medium-term and long-term horizon. The impact of our investment story become evident. During the bold '25 period, the business stabilizes and begins to grow free cash flow as capital investments past the peak and the commercial momentum continues to be able to absorb the structural changes in the market and the inflationary pressures. From 2026, CapEx has returned to a normalized level. The benefits of the fiber network start to accelerate and the international free cash flow conversion deliver material operating leverage. Beyond 2028, when the fiber JV equity injection ceased, joint venture dividends commenced and the fiber monetization gets to full pace. The returns from the fiber become materially accretive all whilst internationally, the business have taken material market leadership positions. Now concluding the presentation and bringing all this together for the ambition of bold '25. I'll repeat how I started the presentation today with our midterm ambition. We will grow domestic revenue and return domestic EBITDA to the '22 level by 2025. We'll accelerate international EBITDA, including direct margin growth with high single-digit CAGRs. We'll grow group EBITDA as of '24 with group EBITDA of '25, up slightly above the level '22. CapEx will return to normalized levels after the post peak of 2023, and we maintain a sound financial position with net debt-to-EBITDA ratios between 2.5% and 3% by rebasing our dividend as of 2024. And we're committing to a long-term free cash flow growth trajectory. That's our mid-term ambitions. And with today, we are also releasing the specific 2023 guidance, where domestic revenue will grow between 1% and 3%, domestic EBITDA will decline by 3% being impacted by the inflationary pressures I illustrated in the previous slides. International direct margin will grow high single digit. Group EBITDA will also decline around 3%, and our CapEx will peak at EUR 1.3 billion. Net debt-to-EBITDA ratio will be around 2.6% and the S&P measurement and our gross dividend for -- over 2023 result will be EUR 1.2 per share. And with that, I would like to hand back to our CEO, Guillaume Boutin, for concluding remarks on bold2025.
Guillaume Boutin
executiveThank you, Mark. We now conclude with one last slide, I promise you before we take a short break and then go to the Q&A session. To wrap up, I'd like to share some final thoughts. And I will repeat again and again because it's all about pedagogy and also that we feel the commitment of the management here. Domestically, we will reap the benefits of our infrastructure investments. Fiber superiority will allow us to sustain current commercial momentum for consumer segment. At the enterprise level, we'll continue to drive smart Telco value management and capture the growth of the cyber security and the cloud segments. Finally, our second leg, international, will make us global leaders. BICS has a 2-sided communications platforms, and Telesign, has a reference in DI, digital identity. For all of those reasons, I'm convinced that bold is the right strategy for our group, a strategy that will allow us to grow and create long-term value. And I think this marks the end of our presentations. And I would like to thank you all for your attention and to be here today. Thank you also for those attending online. And I think now we will take a short break before beginning the Q&A session at what time Nancy? Next slide, at 10 past 4. Okay. Thank you very much. See you soon. [Break]
Nancy Goossens
executiveWelcome back, everyone. So now we will take the questions from the room. Please simply raise your hand so we can pass the mic to you. Please limit your questions, 2 at a time, maximum. And so if time allows, we will come back to you. So maybe, yes, let's start maybe with a first question from the gentlemen. Nicolas from HSBC, second row.
Nicolas Cote-Colisson
analystNicolas Colisson from HSBC. 2 short questions, please. The first one, you mentioned a win back and gaining market share strategy in the domestic activities. So I wonder how you assess the risk of a strong reaction from your competitors on the pricing front because they may not have the same product, but clearly, they can compete on pricing. So just curious to see how you think you can chase clients without taking the overall market value down. And the second question is on the dividend. Just wondering why you kept the dividend for 2023 at EUR 1.2 and cut it thereafter. What was the underlying reason for that?
Guillaume Boutin
executiveThank you, Nicolas. I will start with the -- with your first question on win backs and gaining market shares. So I think that historically, Belgian market has been super rational in the way the main competitors have entered value management. And I think the advantage of our ability to still have some pricing power on the market. Also, confirmed by recent announcements of Orange and VOO in the last week that will also increase some price points as of the end of this month, beginning of next month, following our latest announcement of increasing some prices as of first of Jan. Going forward, with the main competitors, I think that dynamic should remain. Again, because we will compete on our side on the premiumness of the brand, on the ability to upsell and cross-sell our customer base towards those fiber speeds that will deliver more value for our customers and not with price. Price competition is not what we want to see on that market. For the main competitors, I think we're going to have a different strategy, depending on the brand that you do consider within the portfolio of brands that we do have, as explained this morning. But on the main brands, I think we have enough differentiation in our product to avoid that we will compete on price on that brand. Others should follow because this is -- that market needs a lot of investments. All players need to invest in the transition towards gigabit connectivities. It's not only Proximus. This is also the rest of the market. For that, the need to fund that journey, that need to happen. So I don't think that the market will lose that ability to act rationally in terms of pricing. That's one. Second, for the new competition. I think there also, we've been super clear. We respect fully the ability of the new entrant to be successful because they have proved that in other markets, they have been successful with close to 10% market shares in other geographies, in Spain, in Italy. And that impact has been fully baked in our plan. We have a significant material but fair impact in our plan, in those numbers that you have seen this morning. From the change of the market share on the market. And despite that fair but material impact of the new entrants in our markets, we are still super convinced that we can get to that return to growth and to have EBITDA level of 2025, above 2022 levels. So that's also super important for you to have that in mind just like we have not respected the ability of DG to be successful. But also, as you've seen, this morning with the strategy that we are delivering and telco is all about product superiority for years. That's the DNA of the industry. When you have the best product, you win the market. And that product superiority is a key enabler of the story that we're going to bring to our customers that also will allow us to win shares in the north of the country. But also, we are super well protected with all the brands that we have, the portfolio of brands that we have today within the Proximus group to adapt or value proposition depending on the different segments of the market. So we'll be extremely prepared. I've been through this 10 years ago when I was working for SFR. So I know what it means to face a market disruption. So I'm going to learn from my mistake at that time, also learn from what works at the time. And I think the team has prepared a plan that I'm not going to disclose today, but that allow us to protect, but also to regain additional market shares going forward on the market. And that is fully baked in the plan that we have presented today. So it shows the confidence we have to get back to that -- the level of '22 at the EBITDA level as soon as 2025 and even to exceed that at group level because then we have the fuel and the firepower of the international assets. So that's little bit your first question. Second, the dividend equation. I think this is a balanced approach. I think we have with that dividend policy that we just announced, we are protecting our ability to create long-term value creation with the fiber plan. That first mover advantage on 3 to 5 years, first time mover advantage, but also the growth and the investment we have to do in the growth of our international assets. That is that protection. But also balance between that and shareholder return. And when you look at the fantastic momentum we have in 2022, when you look at the balance sheet, which is super solid, also at the end of this year. I think we can pay that EUR 1.2 per share dividend without jeopardizing our ability to be at full throttle for the fiber investments. After that thereafter, then we get the dividend to EUR 0.6 per share. And here again, and I said that several times, I think it is super important to protect also the very solid investment-grade balance sheet that we have today. And that's in current time, that's super important that we maintain that ratings for our balance sheet. While again, ensuring that we can continue investing in that fiber growth plan and continue to try to accelerate even more what we are doing for our international assets. So I think this is the right balance, protecting long-term value creation and enabling also some share return for the short term.
Nancy Goossens
executiveMaybe Martin here on this side?
Martin Michael Hammerschmidt
analystMartin from Citi Group here. On the EBITDA, to come back to that, could you maybe help us understand sort of what are the building blocks on how you get from sort of dip this year into sort of the flat in 2025. For example, how much is energy going to be a tailwind next year compared to this year? And then on the second question is on the free cash flow. So with EBITDA sort of growing on a group level, CapEx declining? And then as far as I understand, the free cash flow guidance, does that include the divestments or ex to the divestments? So would underlying free cash flow excluding those investments still grow in 2024? Or would that be -- would that need the divestments in order to grow?
Mark Reid
executiveSo let me take the first question on EBITDA first. So I think, again, maybe just goes back to Jim's first point about product superiority. And I think we've been super clear about our commercial strategy specific on the residential side. And so the momentum that we will deploy, and we have -- we've seen evidence of that as we exit '22. We'll continue our ability to drive the right mix and put in the right pricing, we'll continue to be supportive as we go through '24 -- '23, '24 and '25. So that's the first thing. And then in terms of the overall so we'll get pricing and volume benefit from the top line. Anne-Sophie clearly illustrated that the enterprise transition continues to progress well. We've got the balance of the telco business, with the growth in the IT space in cloud and security. And so that will be, again, broadly supportive of the overall top line trajectory. And then wholesale is the other one. So again, wholesale as we illustrated, we have very little wholesale customers on the fixed network. We continue to deploy JV services or services or joint venture through our wholesale enterprise business. And so from a top line perspective, they're all supportive to the return on EBITDA. And then the pricing, clearly, across all of those specifically on the residential side is specifically supportive of the top line. You then come to the overall operating cost, and as I alluded to, effectively, yes, we've got some inflationary headwinds, and you'll see that. You see that clearly in 2023, where it's pushing pressure on our EBITDA. But those will alleviate as we go through '24 and '25. And we've accelerated our cost savings program to allow us to offset a significant portion of those operating headwinds. In terms of energy, energy, in fact, I think we mentioned in 2023 continues to be a headwind. '24, '25 it's -- the market is still very volatile. But clearly, since we -- since over late December into January, the prices have actually become more supportive of '24, '25, and therefore, that actually could become a tailwind for '24, '25. So that's really the kind of main building blocks for EBITDA story. In terms of free cash flow, the question for free cash flow. The divestment, the EUR 400 million divestments is included in that free cash flow profile. And therefore, the timing of those free cash flow, we're not going into the detail of that today, clearly, one of the items is public, which is the sale of our headquarters in 2023. So that's a number that you can use. But overall, the period free cash flow ex the investment will be growing.
Nancy Goossens
executiveNext question may be from Nawar in the back.
Nawar Cristini
analystNawar Cristini from Morgan Stanley. My questions are related to the equity injections on the fiber JVs. Could you please talk about the trajectory of these investments? When will they peak? And also if you could isolate the last JV that you are planning to go from 70% to 95%, would it be possible to talk about the quantum there and also the trajectory, when are you expecting to see impact from the JV? Just some rough math, given that the investment is around EUR 4 billion, so quarter of that will be EUR 1 billion, so maybe EUR 500 million of equity injections over 10 years, that's maybe EUR 50 million per annum. How should we distribute the EUR 50 million over the period.
Mark Reid
executiveSo let me start with the equity injection and the question of the phasing, again, we haven't been specific about the phasing, but clearly, we illustrated what we expected in 2023. And so the way that I would think about that is you can see the joint venture build pace is clearly linked to that. In terms of the overall free cash flow peaking, I think you can probably think of the joint venture's peak equity injections in the kind of outside the bold '25 period. So later '26, '27, '28 is more likely where you would see the -- I would model the peaking of that equity injection flow. And then when it comes to the overall bias or the overall fiber consortium program, as I said, the negotiations and discussions there are going very, very favorably. We intend to come to conclusion with those probably by the end of the summer. And as you say, the overall number, we're still in that range of EUR 4 billion. In terms of how I'd model it, I would probably think, again, late -- the first investment period will not be hugely material in the bold '25 period in terms of the injection. So it's going to be later in terms of where you start to get some significantly material numbers from a fiber construction perspective in equity injections.
Nancy Goossens
executiveYes, maybe if you stay at the same, Roshan on the back.
Roshan Ranjit
analystIt's Roshan Ranjit from Deutsche Bank. Just thinking about the open investment thesis around the fiber network. I guess the environment has changed over the last 12, 24 months, it may continue to change, let's say, over the next 12 months. How is your thinking changed around that? Clearly, as you highlighted, everyone's invest in, everyone wants to make a return. But does that move the bias towards a new partners looking to use your network, given that's so competitive? And maybe tied to that, secondly, in terms of the kind of demand for people building out networks, what has changed if anything in terms of pricing from your side? You highlighted long-term contracts and that protection against inflation. But is there a kind of supply/demand constraints on labor or materials? Anything you could say there would be good.
Mark Reid
executiveSo maybe if I take the build one in terms of pricing. So you're absolutely right. The environment inflation has changed. The interest rate environment has changed. In terms of how we've reflected that in bold '25, that is in our current numbers. But again, as we kind of discussed in several occasions, the fact that we've built a machine to build fiber from a Proximus perspective, secure those contracts, secured those relationships, they have effectively helped us in terms of being able to scale with our JV partner. So we get similar type scale from that. We effectively have secured capacity and the ability to move capacity from our build to the joint ventures is also something that we benefit from. So I think overall, from a contractual perspective, a capacity perspective, we feel very confident in terms of the build security. In terms of mitigating inflation and interest rate, again, I think you talked about the overall, we continue to get smart and smart in terms of how we deploy. And in terms of how we put fiber into the ground or on poles, effectively, the efficiencies and effectiveness of how we deploy that network is another key lever of us being able to manage the overall economics of the joint ventures. So I think -- and those are fully reflected in our bold '25 outlook. Anything else you'd say on that?
Guillaume Boutin
executiveYes. Just on the what changed between now and 12 months ago, a lot of elements have changed indeed. And those elements are rather supportive of being the first to roll out the network. If you look at the condition to which you can have access to capital today to the condition to which you can access to workers today, to the conditions to even to beat a mobile network, which is not your question, but everything is different today compared to where it was one year ago. And I'd rather be in a site in which Proximus is having started that journey, having long-term commitment with suppliers. I think the ability is expertise and also that cost expertise. We know how to be fiber in Belgium. We know what it takes to roll out a point to multipoint or point-to-point technology. We know the benefit and sometimes the change to roll out a point-to-point network in dense areas, especially in Belgium, that we have that expertise in-house that others do not have today. And I think this is a way to probably to look at the Belgium market a little bit differently compared to probably what -- today most investors are looking at the Belgium market because of a bit in dense areas or mid-dense areas. Not likely, not likely due to the fact that the cost to roll out fiber in Belgium is that high. Market structure. Today, there is no framework. There is no regulatory framework to say whether we have the right to have one network, less dense areas or there is a push for competition through infrastructure in the dense areas. That framework will be probably designed this year by the BIPT, the regulator of the country. Then we're going to have more clarity what the cost to access the passive network in Belgium. And probably those conditions will reflect the cost of all the networks, not only the cost to roll out the network in Brussels but the cost to roll the network on the national level, including the 95% that we have committed. So that will also create some -- a new way to look at the Belgium competitive environment as well because then you show the condition to access the fixed passive network of Proximus or our partners, then you need to make a living on the retail side as well. So probably it will also help us and help you understand what is going to be the future of the retail dynamics going forward because it would be completely impacted by the way, the framework -- the regulatory framework around accessing our fiber network will be designed and reflected upon by the better regulator. So that's a second element. And then of course, then if you look -- if you take all this into consideration, then you have that framework. You have probably also you need the deal of Orange, VOO to land, the deal between previous internet to land as well, but it's complex, it's not that easy. Otherwise, they would be already announced a few months ago, a few weeks ago. That is -- because as you said, the environment has changed. It's way more difficult today to -- even to overbuild a coax asset with the fiber asset given the new economic situation, that's a difficult decision to take. It's not the decisions, of Proximus of course, it's decision of our competitors, but it's a tough decision to take in a current environment. So then once you have the framework, you have our colleagues, they land on the different deals, then you can start to discuss. But we cannot discuss first and then have the framework being decided and then have the EU approval processes getting done. So we need to do first things first. First, work with the BIPT to create that framework. Second, have those deals land. And then I think the business discussion between the different players of the market, there should not be that difficult because if you want to create the conditions to get some return on your investment, then probably in the less dense areas, you're going to have to find ways to have a rational approach to that change. And if I look at all that, I think that the position of Proximus as a first mover player to roll out -- we have a first mover advantage when we roll out the fiber network in Belgium, 20% today, 50% by 2025. I think that position is a fantastic position to be in and to capture really the opportunity. And Mark mentioned the fact that today, wholesale revenue for us is almost nothing. Tomorrow might be more significant. So that's why if you look at longer term, of course, there are still some uncertainties, what will be the framework, what will be the decision of the regulator. What would be the way DG will look at the Belgium market. But still, if you take a bit of distance, step back a little bit, probably you like come to the conclusion that we are super well positioned to capture the value of the connectivity market in the country. So that's the strategy that we are really delivering on a daily basis. And probably we have 5 years, 3 to 5 years, let's start. And that -- it will be super difficult for others to catch up. So that's why we are such -- so confident in our ability longer term to drive that free cash flow recovery and to win that fiber story without disrupting the ability of others to make your living in the country. It's not the approach because we are going to really, again, that's super important, build our marketing story around product superiority and value management in between all different brands. That's the playbook we're going to put forward in the Belgium market.
Nancy Goossens
executiveDavid, a gentleman in the middle, yes.
David Vagman
analystDavid Vagman from ING. First question is on the free cash flow and the outlook actually beyond even -- sorry, beyond the plan, the bold2025 plan. A bit of a simple question is what is the accounting assumption that you have modeled for free cash flow. I don't remember the number of the slide, but for 2026, 2028, and so forth. So have you modeled that you would like reconsolidate the JVs. So that's my first question. Second question on the I4B plan, what are the strategic actually assumptions? So you discussed, and I think rightfully say about the regulatory framework. So is it that you basically think that we will have quite a dramatic change for -- you mentioned the less dense area. So I want to understand if you was talking the 25% or is it 5% or 10%? Could it move and also, when I'm talking to strategic assumption, do you start from the point of view that you can work with Telenet. It seems that for instance, Telenet. It seems that they think that they can do -- sorry, FTTH [indiscernible] for 100% of their coverage.
Mark Reid
executiveKind of question on the free cash flow question, David. So I think it's fairly straightforward. It's on an ongoing basis, like-for-like off of the base of the '25 plan. The adjustment that you talk about is effectively the joint ventures and get reconsolidated at the point where we take ownership. And in the deck, you can clearly see the dates when we take prospective ownership, it was '28 to '30 and '31. And effectively, we would reconsolidate the full joint venture at those points, including the revenue, the COGS, the EBITDA and the free cash flow and then the minority interest would be paid out. So that's the assumption that we've got in the long-term free cash flow.
Guillaume Boutin
executiveOn the I4B for others, I4B is infra for Belgium. This is the fund that is leading the consortium of partners to help us deliver the fiber network beyond the 70% -- between 70% and 95%. That's just for -- to explain your question to the broad audience. So as I said, beyond 70%, probably, I cannot speak for the regulator, but probably that areas where the risk of the bid is going to be super limited. But again, it's not because the region is going to frame something that competition with inflation cannot happen. So framework is different from what is going to happen on the ground. But beyond 70%, we are really in the areas where the risk of the build is going to be super limited. Once you're going to have a Proximus flag or I4B flag in those regions, the ability to get another fiber network is probably to get -- sorry, another fiber network is super limited. And you are talking about coax for that part of the country. But coax is not solving the equation of upload speed. And here, we are talking about 2028, '29, '30, '31. In that time frame, upload speed is going to be the key element of differentiation for connectivity. No more down speed. Down speed is going to be something that everyone is going to experience because of 5G, because of fiber being there and also some customers probably they're going to be happy with the down speed they have today, but upload speed is going to be everything. And there is no scenario where you can live in a region without upload speed being not symmetrical, but at least at the 1 gigabit per second level. That's not going to cope with the needs that people are going to -- enterprises and people are going to have, if you look at 5, 6, 7 years from now, I'm not talking only about the metaverse, but a lot of 2 important services will need that level of upload speed, if you look at the midterm. So coax is not going to be a solution. Copper neither, but coax is not going to be a solution for people. So the thing that you see based on the marketing you see today on download speed is going to switch progressively on upload speed and latency. Those 2 elements -- coax -- even if you -- great coax, cannot deliver.
Nancy Goossens
executive[ Rick? ] in the back.
Unknown Analyst
analystI understand your dividend cuts. But if everything is going according to the plans you have today, after the difficult period, after high moments of higher CapEx, free cash flow will return to a normal level. So could you give them some hope that, that certain moment also dividend could go up again? That's my first question. Second question. You have some plans with TeleSign before. You just missed the opportunity. If the gate of the markets will be open one day, will you reconsider to come to the market under one or another possibility? Or is it buried forever? And will you take the company into your hands and make a great company of it?
Guillaume Boutin
executiveOkay. So on the first, I think we don't guide beyond the 3-year period that we usually take for dividend policy, but I think we have been quite transparent in willingness to continue to grow our free cash flow at levels. It was a slide that has been shared that are above, way above the level that you see today that's the only answer I can make at this point. But then we'll see what we have to do. On TeleSign, it's not only TeleSign, international businesses because, again, intentionally BICS and TeleSign both assets are on the growth trajectory and will generate a lot of value for the group. Here, again, we can have strategic optionalities of course. But today, I'm super happy not to be listed for TeleSign because my competitors of the TeleSign market, most of them are having some difficulties because they cannot find investment money to continue the growth trajectory. They are showing -- some are showing with a share price that has been slashed by the market. And probably, we are one of the only players that can continue to invest for growth. And during the next 2 years, going to win a lot of share in the market. We're going to be probably the one of the rare players in that domain to be at full speed in terms of innovation, go-to-market development and also to attract the best talent because we are on the run. So that's 2 years, 3 years that are in front of us are key to make the difference on the CPaaS market on the DI market. So I think for the next 3 years, probably the focus is going to be take advantage of that current situation to create that worldwide leader in DI. And the same for BICS, make sure that BICS become that leader, worldwide leader in terms of digital com for the group. And then if we do that, if we take advantage of the difficult situation for others, I think we're going to be in a way better situation with a base which is going to be way higher to the base that we used to have 12 months ago. And then, of course, we can decide whether we have to crystallize that value or to continue because you're going to understand more the effect of those assets for the group to continue in that -- in the current context. But at least, it gives us strategic optionalities to continue to accelerate organic -- not organically, but within the umbrella of the group or to crystallize in other ways, the value of the group, but the value of those asset for the group. But today, I think the -- for the next 2, 3 years, focus is going to be on scaling, accelerating and taking advantage of the -- of other struggling to take winning position in the markets of DI and CPaaS and in digital income for BICS. So that's the plan. I know if you want to add something, Joe or Matteo on this, but that's really the plan we have.
Nancy Goossens
executiveThe first one here in front?
Guillaume Boutin
executiveTaking too much. One last comment also, it's a very sound balance sheet that we have also allow us to have some fire power in case of synergistic M&A that could also fuel the growth of both TeleSign and BICS that also important. This was also related to your dividend question.
Russell Waller
analystIt's Russell from New Street Research. Just on the energy costs, I think you said 35 million delta for this year, which is the same at Q3 and yet the future rates for '23 are down quite materially. So does that mean you're 100% hedged for '23, so there's no variability? And then what's the variable component for '24, please? And then the second question, I think you said for the new entrant, you had fair but material, I mean DG has publicly said it wants to gain 10%. So have you got 10% factored in? Or is it 5? Or what's the number?
Unknown Executive
executiveThank for the question. On the energy, 35 million indeed, is the year-over-year for 2023, and that is fully hedged now. And I think, again, we took what we think was a pragmatic decision on '23. So that's -- the numbers have moved out since late December. '24 and '25, we are not -- we don't have a significant amount hedge and a little bit to Matteo's point that, I think, will now pose a tailwind depending on what -- how the market evolves from here on in. So I think that's the way that I would think about energy costs on '23, '24.
Guillaume Boutin
executiveSo to come back on DG, indeed fair but material impact in our numbers in 2025. They claim that they want to reach 10%, we'll make sure that it's not happening. But as I said, with respect their ability to gain some shares. And I think more than 5% is probably something we could also have backed into our numbers. So they will -- we'll do the max for them not to get to 10%, but we are probably -- because we are cautious, we are probably taking a worst scenario in our numbers. So above 5%, probably. But not by the 2025 though, not by 2025. Over time, not by 2025.
Nancy Goossens
executiveQuestion from Yemi in the back?
Yemi Falana
analystYemi Falana, Goldman Sachs. Thanks for the helpful presentation. When I think about the main difference between the outlook you've presented today and broader market expectations, I think the key differentiator is your outlook at the EBITDA level through to 2025. And there seems like quite a bit of an inflection into 2025. So could you maybe kind of double-click on what you view as your -- the key difference between your expectation and the market expectation into 2025? Is that reaping some of the benefits of the investments you're making on the international side? Is that the benefit of a leaner, more fiberized network. Kind of what are the swing factors there? Is it the energy cost tailwinds? It would be really great to hear or any kind of color you can provide on that front?
Mark Reid
executiveYes. So yes, I mean, I think it's a little bit how we answered the question earlier in terms of the overall EBITDA, right? I think the pricing element, I think, is possibly one in terms of -- I think we've demonstrated -- we're very good at putting pricing. So I think we demonstrated a very good value manage both enterprise and on the consumer side in 2022. We've announced, and we're in the process of going through the first build run of 2023. The market has also [ fault ] us to a certain extent. And so I think our ability to keep that pricing and not be affected by churn is significant. And I think the pricing, we still believe there is pricing going forward, right? So I think that's one. I think Guillaume talked about the other one in terms of I think the market is maybe taking the view that you saying we -- as Guillaume said, we have a super respect for them. We are spending a lot of time making sure that we have the plans, we have the structures in place to make sure that they do not achieve what they've said publicly. And so that -- I think that possibly is another one. And the third one, I'd probably point to is, again, something that we have super confidence in. We've delivered significant cost savings at this point. We effectively redoubled down on the overall OpEx execution. And we think that's probably the other part that gives us the inflection from what the market was thinking. I think those are probably the 3 that I would point to, but hopefully that's helpful.
Guillaume Boutin
executiveBut to your point, it's is not only because of the success of the international assets that would be driving that recovery. I think domestically, we also see that recovery, as Mark explained, thanks to operational efficiencies but also our ability to continue to value manage and to develop our customer shares. So domestically, you're going to see that inflection also happening. So it's not only Joe and Matteo, but it's a full entire team here that we deliver that back to growth story and deliver those 2025 level above 2022 level for the EBITDA. So it's not only internationally that we would be able to grow that acceleration going to see even after the 2025 period. But no, no, that's both legs that are going to be supportive for the growth.
Nancy Goossens
executive[ Louis ] in the back?
Unknown Analyst
analystI just wanted to follow up on the EBITDA projections, and I would like to understand from the 1 million active lines on fiber on 2025. How many of those are you expecting to have on the off-balance sheet JVs, I just wanted to understand a little bit what are the impacts from the fixed network costs, access costs on your EBITDA for the next 3 years? The second one would be following up a little bit on the fiber framework agreement that is expected in 2023 and considering all the capital deployment announcement by all the Belgian operator participants and the capital needed to actually cover 95% of Belgium, that will imply that there is going to be a significant overbuild in Belgium. Are you considering or would you be open to reach a compromise with one of your main competitors on avoiding overbuild?
Guillaume Boutin
executiveI may start with that one so that you have more time to reflect on the first one. On the -- again, on that, we had that phase where everyone is announcing plan to roll out gigabit infrastructure, which is a normal phase. Given the fact that there is no for us, we are in that journey, but others have not started. So they need to announce something. Can we today be sure that it's going to be a rational approach? No, we cannot be sure of that. But I think we always stated that we want ourselves to be rational in the way we are expecting that rollout of the network, and I think that others also say the same. For those discussions, for that rationality to be crystallized in discussions. We need -- again, I will repeat it. We need first the framework to be created. And that framework needs to be created by the regulator and the BMA, so the competition authority of Belgium. And that will happen probably in the course of 2023. Second, we need to be able to talk to entities. And today, entities, those entities are not being approved, neither Orange, VOO nor Fluvius, Telenet. So let's make sure that there are entities that are being approved by the European Commission. So first framework, so approval of the different deals being announced and then the discussion could occur. And again, those discussions should be the easiest part of this equation because we are all in favor of having a return on the investment we are putting the ground. And -- but for that, we need first the 2 steps that I just mentioned to happen. So to be super clear on your question, we are open when there is no economical sense to roll out 2 networks to discuss with partners, strategic partners, but it's not a new thing. We already stated that we were open to discuss. That's one. Second, we are not going to wait for everything to be designed to roll out a network. So that's why accelerating, acceleration is super important because once everything is going to be settled, I don't know when it will be the case because regulatory should evolve this year, but agreements of VOO, Orange and Fluvius, Telenet might take some time. So I don't want to be slowing down my investment because I think it's a key competitive advantage and that first mover advantage is also driving value creation first on the long term. So the more I have rolled out in terms of fiber network, the better it is for Proximus shareholders. That's why we are accelerating. And as you said, we are today and for the -- probably for the next 6 months, we're going to be the only one rolling out fiber in the country, taking again, reinforcing that first mover advantage that I shared with you, and I think you understood that message fully during this morning -- during this CMD session.
Mark Reid
executiveI think on the joint ventures ramp-up, I think Geert alluded to, and we gave numbers. Clearly, the build is progressing well, and we're super pleased with that. And you can see from the presentation, the pace of the build. So I think you can pretty much infer the type of number of customer buildup. You can see what take up that we get after 12 months. So I think the overall number of customers starts to be meaningful by the time you get to 2025. In terms of the overall -- your question about how does that flow into our overall P&L at the end of the day, the question again, we haven't disclosed that, but you can broadly think of low double-digit millions in terms of -- by the time you get to 2025. But again, that's fully in our guidance for 2025 in terms of EBITDA. That's probably the way I would think about it.
Nancy Goossens
executiveWe have time for one more question, I think and yes, maybe you are first.
Unknown Analyst
analystThe one is -- the first one is on towers. I mean, we've seen it in the presentation. So I mean, you must have clearly think about it, given my multiples sort of what Deutsche Telekom sold the towers for and you are, I think, probably the only ones who still own the towers fully. So what are your thoughts on sort of the tower landscape at the moment in terms of multiples? And then the second one is just a clarification question. So on the energy possible tailwind. Is that already included in the business plan? Or would that be upside to the EBITDA growth in 2024?
Mark Reid
executiveSo maybe I'll give my take on the first one. I mean the energy one is fairly straightforward, right? We spent before Christmas during the Capital Markets Day presentation. The energy costs have really come off since then. So theoretically, '24, '25 at today's prices would be a tailwind for us, it's not included in the numbers. So I think that's the first one. Towers, shall I give you or you want to give your view? So I think we've talked about towers for -- on several different perspectives. I think we clearly don't have that in the numbers. So I think that's a plan. We've run the numbers in various different ways. I think the way that we look at it at the moment, specifically on the Belgian towers, given the market structure on towers and our specific position in terms of our financing, our balance sheet, we just don't think it's the right time strategically to make that decision. We think it's a key asset that we continue to have on our balance sheet. And so again, we see it as a position of strength. Do we think there's economic conditions that could arise that would make sense to examine that? There could be. But certainly, in the plan, we don't have that in our numbers at this point.
Guillaume Boutin
executiveI think the attractiveness of our towers will continue to be there. Also next year and the year after. So it's not like the ability to monetize if needed, that asset will disappear. To the contrary, probably it will probably increase in value if we wait more because of the scarcity of this kind of assets going forward in -- on the European market. So that's why we are confident but currently we don't need that at the moment. And that's a bullet we can keep for the moment because with the balance sheet we have, we don't have -- there is no obligation for us to dispose those assets. And there is -- as you know, there is no free [ range ]. So there is a cost associated to it. If we do that, then we have to lease back. So why be in a rush when we know that the value of those tariffs will continue to be there over time and that we don't have to do it because we can finance our development at our rates. So that's why today, we are really value manage, assessing the capital allocation of the group, having that in mind.
Nancy Goossens
executiveWith that, we have answered our very last question and our time is exactly up. With this, I think we can conclude the CMD for today. So I thank you all here in the room as well as online. Thank you.
Guillaume Boutin
executiveThank you. Bye-bye.
Mark Reid
executiveThank you.
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