PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk (BNGA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

October 26, 2022

Indonesia Stock Exchange ID Financials Banks earnings 63 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. My name is [ Tagusnioto ] and I will be moderating this session. Before we get started, I would like to remind you that today's presentation may contain forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actually some may differ materially due to variety of factors. On the call with me this afternoon is Ibu Lani Darmawan, our President Director; Pak Lee Kai Kwong, our Strategy Finance & SP APM Director; Pak John Simon, our Treasury and Capital Market Director; we have Pak Pandji Djajanegara, our Sharia Banking Director; Pak Rusly Johannes, our Business Banking Director; Pak Henky Sulistyo, our Risk Management Director; and Pak Noviady Wahyudi, our Consumer Banking Director. We will begin to this session with a presentation from our CEO, Ibu Lani Darmawan, who will start with some remarks about the company's progress and results. And then our CFO, Pak Lee Kai Kwong will provide a more detailed review of financial performance during the quarter. [Operator Instructions] Now without further ado, I would like to turn the presentation to Ibu Lani for her remarks.

Lani Darmawan

executive
#2

Yes, thank you [ Tagu ]. All right. So good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. [indiscernible], thank you for joining our session today. I hope all of you are all well and healthy and wealthy. So today, we will be presenting our first 3 quarters 2022 results. Then to kickstart the presentation, let's turn to Page 3. Sorry. All right. Okay. So I'd like to share a brief updated information. I think you're all very familiar with this page about CIMB Niaga. So we aspire to be the bank of choice for targeted Indonesians business and consumers with our presence almost in 100 cities across Indonesia, supported by 418 branches, including our digital branches. So we serve customers from various segments, including consumer, SME, corporate and also commercials. On the digital side, our digital capabilities continue to strengthen. So also the number of digital users continue to grow. Currently, around 97% of our transactions are done through branchless banking channels. And let's go to the next page for a little bit on the macroeconomic updates. Right. So we can see that our domestic economic recovery remain strong despite the challenging global macro environment. Some early macros, such as our consumer confidence and manufacturing PMI Index confirm that the domestic economic recovery process remain intact. And externally, solid export performance is expected to continue in line with the still strong demand and high commodity prices. And accordingly, our domestic economy is expected to continue expanding next year in 2023 on the back of a strong domestic demand, given the -- coming from the increasing mobility, resilient external demand for export and also the completion of structural national strategic projects despite something happened and anything happening in the global economic cooperation. I think in overall, we remain positive, but also cautious on the progress which we are also monitoring. Next page. All right. Moving on to the banking industry update. As we can see here that the industry continued to grow both the assets and liabilities, in line with the improving economic and business activities, like I explained earlier. So overall banking liquidity remains quite ample to support future loan growth, even though we start to see the downtrend on deposits in the market, now. And meanwhile, our lending rates and funding costs in the banking industry are experiencing some level of -- in elasticity in line with loose liquidity conditions, the -- prolonging the lag effect of policy rate transmissions. So let's turn to the next page for our performance highlights in Q3 2022. Now our loan portfolio mix evolutions, as we continue accelerating growth in loan in consumer and SME segment to maximize long-term risk-adjusted return on capital, we call it RAROC, our consumer segment booked a robust growth of almost 15%, 14.7% year-on-year to be exact, on the back of solid and faster than industry growth in mortgage as well as auto loans. Meanwhile, our SME segment also expanded the growth momentum and reported a healthy growth, almost 9% is 8.8%. And our corporate segment also posted a solid growth of 12.8% year-on-year, showing the continued benefits from the improvement and macroeconomic trends. On the other side, our commercial segment continued showing performance improvement, as you can see here, as we are repositioning our commercial loan portfolio to focus more on ME or medium enterprise, which offers a better risk adjusted return for us. So in overall, bank-wide, our loan grew about 10% year-on-year, in line with our expectations. On consumer and SME combined now representing 46% of our loan book, which is actually up from 44% last year in September. Next, page. I just would like to highlight the fastest-growing segment in our bank, which is auto loans. Through a very good synergy with our multi-finance subsidiary, which is actually with the CIMB Niaga Finance or CNAF. We managed to achieve a solid loan growth in the past few years, while also maintaining a good level of asset quality in auto loan. As a result, market share in our auto financing has been consistently increasing, as you can see here, from 2.5% market share in 2019 to 5.1% market share in August 2022. So as part of our strategic choices to play to our strength in the consumer space, we will continue to accelerate the profitable growth coming from this business segment, which is the auto financing. Next page. On CASA, I think our mantra of CASA, CASA, CASA will remain. CASA ratio has been improved to 67.7% in the quarter 3 this year. And a decline of deposit cost of funds to 1.77%, while our LDR and the PBT remains healthy. For us, the low-cost funding CASA has always been our priority. Accordingly, our CASA ratio, also the deposit cost of funds have been consistently improving for the past few years. And moving forward, we will continue our focus in increasing the CASA growth, both in retail as well as in business banking space. Next page. Now the other very important part of our business performance, the cost management discipline. This has been embedded in our day-to-day work in CIMB Niaga. So our constant effort in cost discipline and cost management have been resulting in continuous improvement in CIR or cost to income ratio. Meanwhile, our productivity indicators is also measured by revenue per employee, PBT per employee have also been improving. And going forward, we will continue optimizing the investment that we do in the area of efficiency as well as productivity by leveraging our capability on technology and digital. The next page. Now customers' adoptions of our digital channel also continued to raise a number of financial transactions through our OCTO Mobile, super app rose 87.2% year-on-year in quarter 3, 2022. Meanwhile, transaction volume done by our business banking client through BizChannel@CIMB also growing 16.1% year-on-year. Correspondingly, digital acquisition and transaction penetration also in a rising trend. Around 96% of the credit card installment now completely processed through digital. Time deposit opening 90%, mutual fund placement 85%, saving account opening 35%, and also mortgage acquisitions, 33%. So we can also see from this chart that the improvement of digital penetration versus last year's, right? Customer digital adoptions for us plays a very critical role in the efficiency improvement. For instance, cost per transactions through our various branches' branchless banking channel, including digital channels has been decreasing substantially. So we're practically because customers choose digital channel more versus the conventional brand channel due to the fact that the customer experience in terms of the expectation versus the actual is actually better mainly coming from OCTO Mobile, OCTO Click and also the BizChannel from -- for nonretail. Next page. So I think, ladies and gentlemen, so I'm just happy to share with you that in the first 9 months of 2020 we posted double-digit loan growth, driven by a solid growth in our focus segments, consumer, SME as well as the corporate. And on the funding side, CASA ratio has been improved to 67.7%. This is as a result of a strong customer relations and customer experience, especially through our digital touch points. Cost efficiency indicators are consistently improving as a result of cost discipline and cost control and also optimization strategy that we have been implementing. We maintain ample liquidity positions, strong capital positions, which also provide sufficient room for us for future growth. And finally, we continue maintaining a prudent provisioning and strong coverage level. So with that, I will hand over the presentation to our CFO, Pak Lee Kai, to share more on our financial result. So Lee Kai?

Lee Kwong

executive
#3

Thank you, Ibu Lani. Very good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us for the 9 months 2022 results announcement. As usual, I'll start with our balance sheet where we saw loans grew 2.6% in the quarter and achieved a double-digit growth of 10% year-on-year. Total assets was however down 1.3% versus the previous quarter, mainly attributed to lower cash and short-term funds holdings with our bonds investment remain relatively unchanged. For the year, however, total assets grew to 3.9%. On the liability side, total deposits declined 4.4% in the quarter, largely attributed to a 9.9% drop in time deposits. However, the combined total of CA and SA was down about 1.5% in the quarter but grew 6.7% year-on-year. If you look at it in totality, the total CA at about IDR 150 trillion and together with our equity or shareholders, one, we are now more than sufficient to fund the entire 100% of our total loans with these 2 funding sources. Our next page on the P&L. On our P&L, we saw net interest income really turning the corner already growing by 3.2% for the quarter, led really by higher interest income, which is turning positive. And now also continued lower funding expenses by 3.5%. For the first 9 months, overall interest income is up 0.9%. Noninterest income for the quarter was lower by 26.7%, but still achieved close to 20% better compared to the first 9 months of last year. And as a consequence of our lower fee income, total income was down 5.9% compared to the last quarter, but still higher 5.7% from a year ago. Operational OpEx or operating expenses continue to be managed judiciously, down 0.4% in the quarter and up by 3.6% for the year. Loan loss provision expenses was significantly better by 25.6% in the third quarter and 9.3% lower versus last year. This really offset the weaker income for the quarter and helped narrow the PBT decline to 1.5% for the quarter. But on a year-on-year basis, PBT closed much higher, close to 20% improvement. Next, key ratios. Here, we share some encouraging key ratios with now ROE meeting the 2.2% level and ROE above the 13% level for the second consecutive quarter. NIM continued its improvement, reaching 4.77% for the quarter and with a year-to-date average of about 4.62%. Like I said, we saw fee income ratio come down and the fee income ratio decline in the third quarter. But for the year, they still represented about 29.2% of our total income. With lower income in the quarter, cost-to-income ratio was up versus the previous quarter, now at 46%. For the year, we remain a steady 44.4%. CASA ratio reached 67.7%, while loan-to-deposit ratio increased to 86.9%. NPLs grew slightly at 3.6%, with net NPL improving to 0.9%. Impairment ratio was better compared to the previous quarter and the previous year, improving to 6.2%. Our credit cost also came down with CoC now at 1.3% for the quarter and 1.8% for the first 9 months really and it's continued to provide a prudent loan loss coverage at about 208% on NPLs and 118% on our impaired loans. Next, go to the quarterly earnings to compare the quarter-to-quarter numbers. So here, we show you compared to the same quarter from a year ago, income was up 4.8% compared to 3Q '21. Pre-provisioning operating profit is up 5.9%. PBT is up 27.4% in the corresponding quarter. In the next page, on the NII. NII improved 1% despite the NIM compression compared to a year ago, driven really by lower funding costs and now with a much more robust loan growth, which is showing a 10% increase. Loan yields softened for the quarter as a result of higher reversal on NPL interest for this quarter, while we continue to manage the cost of deposit lower. All in all, NII achieved a 5 quarter high with NIM returning to the 4.77 level in the third quarter. Next one on the noninterest income. Noninterest income or -- I don't know its fee income declined 26.7%. With our core fee and fee income and commission down 2.2% in the quarter, but for the year, up 2.6%. Much of the quarterly decline was attributed to lower gains in the treasury risk taking business with our FX and derivatives and trading and marketable security of bonds down sizably. Bad debt recovery was also lower compared to a year ago -- from a quarter ago for but a quarter ago we did have a loan sale, which gave us a little bit of a lift in NoII. Next, on operating expense. This is -- we -- where we want to be right now, keeping costs lower at 0.4% in the quarter and are managing it to about under 4% growth level at 3.6% for the year, taking our cost-to-income ratio to 44.4%. Attribution of that cost increases came from personnel costs, which is up 3.6%. But the bigger expense really came from our investment in technology, which was up close to 20%. However, we will continue to fund these investments by controlling our other expenses, including establishment costs, admin and general services costs, which on a year-on-year basis showed a 3.6% decline versus the first 9 months of last year. Next page, please. Okay. Customer deposits on deposits from the start of 2022, we really set out to manage our funding and liquidity at a more efficient level. LDR is now at an optimum level, at 87%. Remember, we started the year at about 74%. So PD was somewhat managed down as we continue selectively attract high rate hunters and seek out more stable funding. For the quarter, saw time deposit down 9.9% and year-on-year 17.7%. Our funding plan is primarily focused on growing our main operating current account, also known as MOCA in CIMB Niaga and really growing our savings deposit. Current accounts continue to grow at a 12% level and saving was up 1.7% year-on-year. Next, on loans. The demand for loans continue to be strong, led by Consumer Banking, improving 3.3% in the quarter and 14.7% year-on-year. Corporate Banking is not far behind, up 3% in the quarter and almost 13% for the year. Also, our SME or EVV loans grew -- growth continued and continued resurgence actually up 1.8% versus the last quarter and 8.8% for the year. We also saw Commercial Banking gaining 1.1% in the quarter with our targeted segment growth approach to rebuild this business. Particularly, on the asset quality, gross NPL closed at 3.6%, pretty much the level where we have been over the last 5 quarters between 3.4% to 3.6% level. Loan loss provision showed much improvement in the third quarter at IDR 715 billion, bringing cost of credit level to 1.3% for the quarter and for the year 1.8%. Loan at risk or LAR ratio continued to improve, down to 10.8%. And when included the COVID-19 stimulus repayment assistance loans, loan at risk is at 13.4%. Total COVID-19 repayment assisted loan right now is at the IDR 5.3 trillion level, representing only 2.7% of our loans portfolio. Over to the next page, liquidity and capital. Liquidity wise, we are in a very strong position with the 3 key liquidity indicators, LCR, LDR and NSFR at healthy levels. And there was really no concern in our part to let go some of the expensive time deposits I mentioned earlier. Capital adequacy remained at 21% level. We're further signaling our ability to support more asset growth if we want to, with RWA now at IDR 198 trillion. Before I close out this financial performance review, maybe next page, please. I just want to recap our guidance for 2022. For loans growth, we will likely come in at the higher end of this range at about between the 8% to 10% range. With our NIM at already 4.77% in the third quarter and a likely repeat of that in the fourth, we will see our NIM end closer to that 4.7% range for the year. Cost of credit is now below this range, but year-end is coming, but we have to wait and see if any of this macroeconomic factor refresh to our provisioning models, we have any impact to our provisions. So we are guided unchanged for now with a tinge of optimism here. Cost-to-income ratio, we can comfortably meet the below 45% level. And just another quarter to go before the end of the year, we are confident that we can. We would likely come in, in the upper end of our ROE range. Okay. That's for me -- from me for now. I'll pass the session back to Ibu Lani for her final remarks before we dive into the Q&A. Ibu Lani, the floor is yours?

Lani Darmawan

executive
#4

Yes. Thank you Pak Lee Kai, so ladies and gentlemen, before we go to Q&A, let me just share with you several remarks on our results. So we achieved a strong result in this first 9 months, 2022, thanks to the positive performance of revenues coming from strong business growth, excellent cost control and also improved underlying asset quality trends. We have a positive view on the remaining 2022 with a strong growth in our key focus, practically in the segment of retail coming from auto, mortgage, SME as well as corporate. We maintain our conservative positions on capital, liquidity as well as asset quality. And finally, as our strategy execution is progressing quite well. The strong results reaffirm our confidence that we will be delivering the targets in 2022. So [indiscernible] with that, I end the presentation. Again, thank you for your attention, and we can take the Q&A. Thank you.

Operator

operator
#5

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from [ Joseph Sinai with True Price ].

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#6

Congratulations on the continued strong performance. My question relates to the auto loans. Can you help me understand, first, how much of the loan growth here is pent-up demand maybe perhaps from the chip shortage? That's the first question. #2, what is the basis for competition here? And then how is the bank able to maintain market share gains? And third is, how are we managing or thinking about risk, right, because previous asset quality issues were also driven by really high growth in certain segments. So those are my 3 questions.

Lani Darmawan

executive
#7

Well, thank you, Joseph. Let me answer the questions. So this is a part of the strategy that we improve the productivity. That's one thing for sure. But in terms of strategy, the growth strategy in our auto loan, which is actually presented by our multi-finance subsidiaries CNA is actually coming from the 3 pronged segments for new cars, used cars as well as refinancing. So particularly CNA is making use of the current situation. They are very flexible. You're right that in terms of new car sales, there is a little bit challenge related to the availability of chips and et cetera. So delivery is delayed. However, this is opening new opportunities on the other segment, which is actually the used car. Yes. And refinancing has been increasing tremendously, accordingly. If you are monitoring the market, multi-finance company who is actually focusing on the auto loan, usually, they take whether the new cars or somebody like [ Astro ] for example or a used car like [ BFI ]. But for CNA, they are going on those 3 segments, used, refinancing, as well as the new. So in terms of growth for the past 1 year, especially, it's more to -- in terms of portions of the new portfolio coming in, majority coming from the refinancing, which is good because refinancing is coming from the existing good customers top-up using the same collateral. And the second is actually for used car, right? And we don't only see the deteriorations in terms of customer segment when they take a used car, is completely because it's like you said, there is non availability of the new cars in the market because of chip issues and the other issues. So the same type and segment of our customers coming in to purchase -- to take loans on used car. So that strategy on CNA without declining the risk appetite, but mostly targeting to the available and growing sales segment in the market. Second, in terms of asset quality, it's pretty much very content. And even if we are comparing the asset quality of CNA compare to market much better, and we don't really see the deterioration. Actually, there is slightly in terms of gross NPL. However, if with 0.93%, if you are comparing it to the market, CNA is completely lower than average market. So you are still confident on those growth. And we are coming in from a very low ENR. We have been restructuring the way that CNA works. So I think I really think that in terms of the overall CIMB Niaga asset quality is definitely not contributed by CNA. So yes, in terms of competition, I think it's how flexible and how agile that the business can maneuver looking at the current situation because, again, auto loans is a very short tenure, averaging about 3 to 4 years, relatively overall is more ticket size. So I think the agility and how quick the management can really follow the trend, but yet keep the underwriting as well as portfolio management healthy. I hope that one answer the question, Joseph?

Operator

operator
#8

We have the second question here is -- the next question is from Jayden Vantarakis from Macquarie.

Jayden Vantarakis

analyst
#9

And well done on the continued improving performance. I have 2 questions. One is related to Joseph's question before. Do you do 2 wheel financing or is the finance business only related to 4 wheel because I think related to the risk some banks have faced more on the 2-wheel side? And my second question is on the funding. If I look in the quarter that just passed, there was a little bit of a reduction in savings in [ Carnik ] well, I think Carnik cap balances were flat, but savings were down. How does CIMB Niaga plan to sort of continue growing savings accounts? Will there be any pricing-led strategy? Or do you think this is just a blip? Those are my 2 questions.

Lani Darmawan

executive
#10

All right. So I think I'll answer that as well, Jayden. So no, we don't do 2-wheel financing for the time being because, again, just like you said, looking at the cost and risk and return and our capability as well. So we will be focusing still on the 4-wheelers. Second question actually is on the funding. Yes, there is some reductions. But if you are looking at the peers as well and market, we -- just like I explained in my presentation, we also see the decline related to the deposits in the market. But in terms of time deposit, for example, is conscious because we want to manage the cost of funds. But if you can see the growth in CASA is still growing. But yes, the growth is actually less this year compared to last year. But we are also comparing all those deposits as a basis of liquidity through our LDR and NSFR. So we are still very ample related to it and confident. But there is quite a lot that we continue to do. One is the digital, not only within retail, but also nonretail, which we see a lot of potential in those areas, payroll and even nonpayroll, including MOCA, the operating account. I think the nonretail has been doing it quite well. As you can see, CAR year-on-year is still growing plus 0.1%. Saving account some of the decline is actually because of some churn, some churning coming from our wealth customers going on bancassurance and the other wealth products that they take. But thank you for the questions as well. But we remain vigilant on the liquidity, but there's quite a lot that we continue to do in terms of CASA.

Jayden Vantarakis

analyst
#11

Just to follow up, that means that we're comfortable that CASA will grow even if we leave the pricing the same. We think the product is obviously very good, and we should see that grow organically? Or do we think that there may be is a reason to revisit pricing for some of these accounts?

Lani Darmawan

executive
#12

Well, thank you for the question, Jayden. I know you are right because I think sooner or later, we like it or not, we will need to increase both deposits as well as loan pricings, right? It seems that there is a consensus for the time being for the big bank, at least for the top 8 to 10 banks that regardless several times that Bank Indonesia increased the rate. We try to maintain because we also want to maintain the loan rates. But you're right, we need to start pricing it up, for both, actually. And looking at the discussion that we have in the market, it seems that November, we still -- we need to increase both lending as well as CASA. But the beauty of the progress that we have in terms of CASA is actually the digital channel plays a big role, which is actually nonprice sensitive. So that's why in this condition, we are still able to maintain a low cost of funds and even declining, it's only about 1.7% right now, right, even year-on-year, it's still declining. So yes, I think the rate -- I am not going to say [indiscernible] market will need to raise it up. And cost of fund will be increasing, but we need to also pick up some of those impact to the loans as well.

Operator

operator
#13

Next question is from Ben Shane Lim with Macquarie.

Ben Lim

analyst
#14

I just wanted to get a sense for the trajectory for your NOI into the next quarter. Do you think it's self stabilized at this level just direction-wise, do you think it's got a bit more to correct downwards?

Lani Darmawan

executive
#15

Okay. Ben, I think on NII currently, I think there's a challenge. If you are looking at the treasury, I think John can add as well earlier. But I think we put a bet on our details as well as our wealth management and even coming from administration fee, et cetera. And credit card fee is also increasing. As you can see, we start to grow credit card by 6%. We are #3 to 4 players in the market, so we are quite large. And credit card outside of the NII, this is also NII play for us, the merchant fee and then the credit card fee for us. That's one thing. And the other part is actual wealth management. But in terms of our treasury products, you're right, that's a challenge in it. John, do you want to add on that?

John Simon

executive
#16

Yes, Ben, I guess things are not things -- things have been quite unpredictable for the past few months. I mean we did not expect U.S. inflation to continue creeping up. It was at around 5% plus/minus last year, now it's close to 8% and despite the increase of Fed fund rate from 1% to 3.25% and maybe going most likely to 4%, it is as if that the fed couldn't really tame the inflation, right? And the rest of the world is pained, including Indonesia. So here, it's catching up, although not as much. Now the interest rate differential between the [ i-rate ] and U.S. Fed fund rate is about 325 and 475, 450 basis points, but looking at what the FYMC will do increasing it by 75 November that's going to be 75 basis points difference only which is record low. I think the average for the past 5 years is around 5%, 4%, 5%. So uncertainty will remain. Fortunately, I guess, if I may guide you to look at the overall FX derivative and gain from marketable securities as the way to look at things because we do play this together, the bonds position, which is the marketable securities, we do hedge them with our derivative position. So although, say, for example, the third quarter, although on the market for securities itself it is in the red but overall, if you were to add the 2, we are still positive. So that's how we see it because it's like the brake and the gas paddle kind of thing that we have to manage all the time. But I do have to agree that it is going to be something that will remain unpredictable. It's a matter of where we think the terminal interest rate will be for U.S. dollar and hence the rest of the world will also be able to stop having to worry about having to keep on adjusting the interest rate.

Lani Darmawan

executive
#17

In terms of the level, especially by year end whether -- are we still okay on NOI and I think we are still confident...

John Simon

executive
#18

Yes, we're still hopeful. I think the year-on-year for overall, if you have to look at the FX derivative and the gain from [indiscernible] securities, if you have to combine the 2, we are still on the positive side, despite market being a lot more difficult to maybe get this year versus last year. So yes, we're hopeful. We have not added the position to our book quarter-on-quarter as a matter of fact, we reduced our book a bit. And region also, we are reducing a bit. So we are taking it easy. But where we are now, it's a matter of how low can it go, right? And hopefully, we are going to be able to enter at a level not too far off the pivot point and be able to gain from there.

Ben Lim

analyst
#19

And just one last quick one. I want to check. I recall you guys still had some overlays, if I'm not mistaken. Is there any more that you're sitting on? And how does that factor into your credit cost guidance?

Lani Darmawan

executive
#20

Yes. I think, again, we remain conservative on that one. We still put some overlay. So in terms of, I think it's about 10% to 11% will still be there in terms of [ OKLY ].

Ben Lim

analyst
#21

Sorry, 10% to 11% of what?

Lani Darmawan

executive
#22

Provisions.

Lee Kwong

executive
#23

Of our provision balance.

Lani Darmawan

executive
#24

Our provision balance is actually OKLY.

Operator

operator
#25

The next question is from Danny Goh with Credit Suisse.

Danny Goh

analyst
#26

Just staying on NOII, I was just curious, you lumped the FX and derivative under the same line item. Can we assume that the FX number is relatively stable quarter-on-quarter? I mean if we were to try and separate out the FX versus the derivative number. I think it was mentioned earlier that the derivative side is used as a hedging instrument, and that's a positive number. But just curious about the FX side of it.

Lee Kwong

executive
#27

FX is relatively smaller compared to the derivative then -- so FX year-on-year, we are somewhat stable. I can -- I can share with you the number, quickly, I'm not sure whether it's here or not, but I can pull out the data shortly. But FX is somewhat more stable, but it is the derivative -- the majority is the derivative.

Danny Goh

analyst
#28

So the number is predominantly derivative and rather than FX.

Lee Kwong

executive
#29

Yes.

Lani Darmawan

executive
#30

Correct.

Lee Kwong

executive
#31

I think this is the way it is -- the format that we are supposed to subscribe to locally, I think that's -- it has been like that forever, as far as I remember.

Danny Goh

analyst
#32

If you could share the number at a later stage when you have it, that would be great. The other question related to NOII. I remember in the briefing conducted by CIMB Group that there was a mention that loan recoveries is very much linked to sale of NPLs that have been fully written off. And it was mentioned that there's quite a large stock of NPLs that have been fully written off that can be sold off. Would you be at liberty to share that number? How much NPLs you have that have been written off that you could potentially sell?

Lani Darmawan

executive
#33

Yes. I think -- Danny, I don't have the numbers with us right now. But some of -- one of the objective -- one of the initiatives that we have, the other one is actually is the loan sale. But -- right, is one of the -- just is one of the objective and one of the initiatives are only.

Danny Goh

analyst
#34

Because we -- from what we understand, there's a fairly large stock of it, and that is something that can be used as a stabilization mechanism.

Lani Darmawan

executive
#35

It is correct. I think there is a different treatment related to the recovery between the one that you heard from CIMB Group and asked right, Lee Kai, you want to add on that?

Lee Kwong

executive
#36

Yes. So a slight treatment accounting-wise, if it's a loan sale, yes, it goes into the NOII line. I think this is what the Group was referring to. But for our local number, even recoveries from NPLs also get into the NOII number. So the numbers that you see in the Group and locally may look slightly different. In terms of the total stock of written off loans or written of NPL, what you call bad debt, yes, we do have quite some opportunities if we can find the right buyer at the right price, essentially, yes, we have a portfolio of loans like that, but we want to get the right price for it. And in Indonesia, not as easy as let's say, compared to Thailand to find asset management company to take over bad debt. We have done the loan sale before -- but loan sale before, but really not at very high ideal price. So for us, I think if there's still opportunity for us to exhaust our effort to get better pricing from the sale, we will continue to do it in-house first.

Danny Goh

analyst
#37

If you can just bear with me, I've just got 3 quick questions. Net interest margin sensitivity, are you able to share with us what that sensitivity is for every sort of 25 basis point policy rate hike, how does that impact your margins?

Lee Kwong

executive
#38

I don't have the PVPB number off hand, but it's a positive PVPB, which means that any rate hike will give us the positive impact on the NII. I'm not sure, John, you have that PVPB off hand or not I didn't -- I don't have it with me right now. But it's still positive. But ultimately, it also really depends on how we transmit the rate hikes, right, our interest rate increase to our customers. Ibu Lani mentioned it that yes, consensus wise, the big banks, big 8, the 10 banks, they are not raising interest rates on loans yet, but deposits, there may be some pressure coming in right now. We think that maybe 30% of our existing balances may need to be repriced deposits may need to be repriced. And when we reprice our loans, we have, I think, 60% of our loans or over 60% of our loans are floating rate loans, we can reprice a lot more of our loans that need to be priced our deposits because some of our savings and CASA, we have actually invested what we call a regular savings plan that does not change rates immediately until they fulfill their tenure. So overall, I think we have -- it should be pretty neutral even though it's present value per basis point of rate hike suggests that we may get better NII.

Lani Darmawan

executive
#39

Yes. I think just to add to what Pak Lee Kai is saying is that I think ideally, that's what from a CFO point of view, right, if we can really gain I think the neutral, my view is that we can really set it up into neutral because some percentage of our book, both in lending as well as in funding is actually repriceable, so currently we are focusing on transmitting those rate hike to both practically. So the aim is that if it can really get into neutral, I think that's the best stage, Danny.

Danny Goh

analyst
#40

Because I remember that for the longest time, it used to be neutral, but your CASA ratio is now at close to 67%. So it's -- I guess the dynamics of it has changed quite a fair bit.

Lani Darmawan

executive
#41

Yes.

Lee Kwong

executive
#42

[indiscernible] is a very good position because people really have to reprice CASA as aggressively around. If rates go up 50 basis points like last week, we probably had maybe 50% of the book, we don't have to reprice. And for those we need to reprice, we don't even need to move up 50 basis points. So it will give us a little bit of room on the loan side, not to transmit all the rate hikes into the loans continue to maintain a strong relationship with our borrowers.

Danny Goh

analyst
#43

And just 2 very quick straightforward questions. On the credit cost side, I mean, 1.3% for the quarter is the lowest we've seen for a very long time. I mean how sustainable is this number?

Lani Darmawan

executive
#44

You'll see. Okay. So again, this is the -- as you know, Danny, that you have been following CIMB Niaga for years as well. You're right. This is one of the -- one of our focus for a couple of years. So we can see the light now. And well, if you're asking for a better target, we want to definitely still go down. So yes, I think with the loan growth and our ability to grow loan as well and then the CASA franchise has been very good. So I think we are confident that we are still be able to manage the portfolio in such a way as well as in terms of our risk appetite and credit processing, which is in preference by our customers, not only retail but also nonretail. So I think we are still confident that we still reduce CoC further.

Danny Goh

analyst
#45

And where do you see that going? I mean, at a normalized level, I mean the stable state credit cost?

Lani Darmawan

executive
#46

Well, Pandji you want to add based on your…

Danny Goh

analyst
#47

He has a target, by the letter…

Pandji Djajanegara

executive
#48

Okay. So thanks for the question, Danny. Yes, maybe before I answer that, I also want to add what Ibu Lani mentioned that in CIMB Niaga in the last 3, 4 years, we have also done a lot of improvement or transformation in terms of credit underwriting across segment, not only on nonretail and that also contribute to the stabilization of CoC. And actually, pandemic is the acid test, right? And after now 2 years going to the pandemic, we could see our CoC can be reduced. And hence, that is also in a way for forward-looking. So to answer your question, yes, we have done several simulation in terms of what they call maybe steady state of CoC for CIMB Niaga. And maybe just big one of the simulation is I think we're quite confident or foresee at least in the next 3 to 5 years, that our CoC can be stabilized between 1.5% to 1.9%. So it would be a steady state of our CoC. Of course, we would like to be at the lower end of it.

Lee Kwong

executive
#49

Also, when we look at it together with the coverage, right? So the lower the NPL we have, then we will not need to provide as much also. So as long as our coverage, we are comfortable between the 200% to 215%, 220% level, I think we are being prudent already in terms of provisions. So even at 1.3% provisions cost of credit in the previous quarter. We still see our coverage above the 200% mark, closer to the 210% mark right now.

Danny Goh

analyst
#50

Is the 1.3% a gross number? I mean, were there recoveries that brought that number lower? I mean, if you're looking at a steady state of 1.5% to 1.9%, it would seem to suggest that there was some one-off sort of recoveries.

Lee Kwong

executive
#51

Not in the way we report it in Indonesia because I mentioned earlier, recoveries goes into NOII. Or Indonesia accounting reporting. In the Group, yes, it's a net of number when we -- we submit 2 separate books actually, one for the group reporting and one for local reporting.

Danny Goh

analyst
#52

And finally, just on LDR, is there an optimal level of LDR that you'd like to see yourself at?

Lee Kwong

executive
#53

Maybe Ibu Lani.

Lani Darmawan

executive
#54

Yes. Well, we can see it for a couple of months, actually, not only CIMB Niaga, but the market LDR is actually increasing. Ours currently with 78%, 79% to 80% is actually rather in the lower end in the market. But if you are looking at the efficiency that we have, I think 85% will still be ideal.

Danny Goh

analyst
#55

Okay. Those…

Lee Kwong

executive
#56

Yes. 85% -- we can optimal, maybe 85%.

Lani Darmawan

executive
#57

90%.

Lee Kwong

executive
#58

Because statutory reserves in Indonesia is about -- for us, we pay about 8%, right, or 7.5%, we combine Sharia U.S. dollars and rupiah. So we still need about 1% to 2% that need to -- or cash on a daily basis. So up to 90% is fine. Now we are 87% pre-ideal already, close to ideal at least.

Operator

operator
#59

Next question is from [ Baramento ] from Stockbit Sekuritas.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#60

I would like to ask about 2023 target because what I saw from the presentation is only for full year 2022 was about the loan growth target for 2023 and the net interest margin. Also, I would like to ask about the split offs unit Syariah because from what I understand is that from [indiscernible] authority or OJK that it needs to be splitted in 2023, maybe also the target for dividend plan in 2022 full year book year.

Lani Darmawan

executive
#61

So well, today's presentation is actually our report on Q3. So we haven't really published our target for 2023. But [indiscernible] we will invite you as well, Baramento, so sorry about that. So I think -- so we wanted to target a NIM 2022 to give that overall, for 2023, we remain positive. So definitely, we target ourselves for our business growth in all-in, including your profitability, loan growth and et cetera, deposit growth, fee and IR, et cetera, with better asset qualities as well. In terms of spinoff on Syariah. So it's not only regulations, but the law. So I think we will follow the law. Even though just for your information, there's also some discussions right now related to the [indiscernible] so the change of law [indiscernible]. Yes, which is one of them is actually -- currently, there is a request from the banking industry and from several associations to -- not to make the mandatory in terms of Syariah spinoff. However, whatever it is, where it is the regulations and the law we'll follow the law. And currently, CIMB Niaga is preparing ourselves as well for a spinoff.

Operator

operator
#62

And the last question for -- to the session is from Andrey Wijaya with RHB Sekuritas.

Andrey Wijaya

analyst
#63

Congratulation to the very strong piece of in the 9 month. I just want to have one question on the NPL. As we said on the NPL number, it certainly increased -- slightly increased to 3.6% from 3.5% in the previous quarter. So what is the main driver on the increasing on the NPL? And if you give like some color on what do you see NPL numbers going forward considering like next year maybe with a challenging situation because of the inflation and this thing?

Lani Darmawan

executive
#64

Let me answer this and probably on the NPL guidelines, if I had given that as well. So NPL drivers definitely is one of them is actually our calculation based on the -- especially coming from the profit restructuring, mostly coming from the nonretail. So practically, this is the reality base that we want to take into the calculations because again, whether -- how much you want to take the restructuring to continue because that can still be allowed until next year 2023. I think we just picked the reality. So that's why majority is still coming from the profit restructuring area, especially coming from nonretail, mostly from commercial as well as some are coming from our SMEs. Related to the guideline -- the guidance on NPL, Pandji, want to add.

Pandji Djajanegara

executive
#65

Yes. Yes. Okay. So we foresee -- I mean, of course, [indiscernible] all this will depend on OJK whether it will extend or selectively extend profit relaxation in March inventory. But our outlook is if whatever will happen, I think we could maintain our NPL ratio right now and improve in next year and maybe in -- still around the 3.5% plus/minus because we will also, again, like I mentioned earlier, we will do in managing this in the most optimum way. Of course, I mean, the issue is just bad loan sale, but that is also not good. So as mentioned by [indiscernible]. So we will exhaust all of the effort to get the most optimum recovery and also in managing our NPL ratio.

Andrey Wijaya

analyst
#66

Are you saying, if we include the profit NPL, do you see right now the NPL is not improving after the government introducing subsidiary or still remain stable until now.

Lee Kwong

executive
#67

Maybe I'll give you the chart. Yes. So you are seeing the increase year-on-year from between 3.4% to 3.6%. That's because of the early actions that we took last year to remove all the stimulus, right, especially from the consumer and [ EBB ] segment. So some of these accounts deteriorated hence, even with the loans growth, we did not see the NPL improve so is deteriorating. So that's because we took early actions to really start taking away the stimulus. So the next point is whether it gets better from now on, I would say that maybe it gets a little bit worse before it gets better because one of the unknown is really for some of these loans that are still under stimulus, COVID repayment assistance. If there's an opportunity for OJK allow them to continue maybe for another year or 2 to really ride through this difficult period, especially the hotels in Bali and all that then maybe the NPL numbers can begin to come down. Right? But if stimulus is taken away altogether, we may not see it coming down as fast as we want. But ultimately, yes, we aim for it to come down.

Operator

operator
#68

And that would be the last question. Before we end this call for, I would like to turn the call over again to Ibu Lani for closing remark. Ibu Lani.

Lee Kwong

executive
#69

Sorry, Ibu Lani, just a quick one, so that I don't owe anything to Danny. With regard to his earlier question about the breakdown between FX and derivatives, the FX portion for year-to-date is about IDR 240 billion out of the IDR 1.37 trillion, IDR 240 billion. And for third quarter, out of the IDR 317 billion, the FX is about IDR 95 billion. 20%.

Lani Darmawan

executive
#70

Okay. All right. Thanks, Yes. So ladies and gentlemen, again, thank you so much for attending the sessions today and also for your support to CIMB Niaga. And again, I just wanted to reiterate that our strategy is executed by the team [indiscernible] very well and progressing well as well, and we are confident that we will hit our budget in 2022, and we remain positive as well for 2023. Of course, with some cautions as well related to the unknown that we will face actually next year. So again, thank you. And I hope to end this year well and also for you, all the best for all of us and for all of you as well. So again, thank you.

Operator

operator
#71

Ladies and gentlemen, with that, we end our session for today. Thank you for attending the call. If you have any follow-up questions, please reach out our Investor Relations teams. Have a good day.

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