PTT Public Company Limited (PTT) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Shall we continue with the second part of today, which is the performance of first Q 2021? We will start with the presentation and we will have Q&A. You can use Raise Hand function for Microsoft Teams and use the checkbox to type in your questions. Now I would like to invite PTT's CEO, Khun Auttapol Rerkpiboon; our CFO, Khun Pannalin, please.

Good afternoon, dear analysts, investors. We meet again. We are going to present the performance for the first quarter 2021. We are meeting online still. Towards the end, during Q&A, the management at the chief level will join us as well. It's our intention to project the message that whatever the circumstances, we continue to perform our duty as usual. Let's go through the presentation, starting with key activities in the first quarter of 2021 starting with PTT itself, gas business. From the 1st of January 2021, the NGV retail price for public sector has been adjusted to equal that of the private sector. That is good outcome for us, resulting in less loss by THB 757 million. We expect that the whole year loss will be reduced by THB 2 billion. Secondly, in January, we experimented the commercial LNG shipment. The intention is for us to be the LNG hub, so we do the break bulk importing LNG and then breaking the bulk and then exporting to China or truck loading and export it to neighboring country, i.e., Cambodia. And we also do the LNG reloading. That's big size. So we reload and sell to Japan, capitalizing on the time when spot price is so high and our contracted price is low. So on the basis of that, we reloaded the contracted cargo and then sold at spot at higher price, resulting in our preparedness in doing LNG and positioning Thailand as LNG hub. Another development is the establishment of Innopolymed Company Limited, a joint venture between IRPC, PTT through Innobic (Asia) in order to -- well, to produce nonwoven fabric. The nonwoven fabric is the material used in mask, the middle layer of the mask, which has never been produced in Thailand before. We used to have to import the raw material. But with the joint venture, we can produce nonwoven fabric. That is part of the life science venture. It's deemed part of the consumables segment. IRPC has this technology. IRPC holds 60%, Innobic holds 40%. And also, we established PTT MEA in UAE. If you recall, we reported earlier about the joint venture to set up a futures oil trading market in Abu Dhabi. So this is the vehicle in charge. We will explore other opportunities going forward. PTT is one of the founding members for this futures market that was inaugurated 2 months ago. Next development, we established On-I on Solutions. It's -- we hold 100% in this JV. Originally, it was meant for EV charging business, but we have adjusted to enable this company to look at the whole chain of electric vehicle. PTT is paying more attention to EV business. So within the next couple of months, we are going to launch a new business. So please monitor the development. It is going to be done through On-I on Solutions. So its scope is broader than EV charging stations. Now next, PTTEP has acquired a 20% stake in Block 61 in Oman. So this is acquired from BP. This is a major block, and it will reduce the average cost for PTTEP and gas and oil discovery in SK417 and SK438 in Malaysia and oil in SK405B. So that's offshore Sarawak of Malaysia. And in February, there is first gas production of Block H project in Malaysia. So that's the achievement of PTTEP's investment in Malaysia. Its investment in Malaysia is bearing fruit. Next, GC. GC has acquired 16.24% of Vinythai through -- so it will bring the total to 41.22%. And in the end, we will delist Vinythai from the stock market as well. The objective of the acquisition is to broaden the investment in downstream as well as strengthen GC's competitiveness. Next, OR. You know well that the first trading day on 11th of February, it is very successful both in terms of objective to distribute shares to retail investors while stabilizing the price. The price is stabilizing at THB 30. Also, GPSC has invested in Anhui Axxiva New Energy Technology in China. It's a battery manufacturer with 1 gigawatt per annum capacity using the 24N (sic) [ 24M ] technology, which PTT is holding share. And the factory itself is contracted to supply batteries to Chery model, which is China's own EV that is selling quite well. So it is a good opportunity for us to make headways into China's market, and it will serve as a foundation for us to partner with the Chinese companies in the future. And we -- by way of updating, I would like to report on several other key developments, starting with Innobic (Asia) acquiring shares of Lotus Pharmaceutical Company Limited in Taiwan, 6.66% stake. Lotus' core business is R&D, manufacturing and distributing generic drug covering different diseases from cancer to neuro. And the investment in Lotus will enable PTT to expand into onco drug market in ASEAN. And we will send our people to learn the know-hows in the company, and we will have the network to broaden our footprint in this business. And I understand that we are going to import remdesivir, the anti-COVID drugs, which Thailand is lacking. So we rely on the partner's network to import that. So that's import. And then we donate to the government as part of our contribution. Next, we established T-ECOSYS with the registered capital of THB 350 million with the objective to do the industrial digital platform under the cooperation with Ministry of Energy (sic) [ Ministry of Industry ], Industry Estate Authority, financial institutions. So that -- it's the platform for industrial companies wishing to digitalize their business. Not knowing where to start, it can use this platform. And thirdly, we approved Innobic (Asia) to work with Nove Foods, which is part of NRF. With registered capital of THB 300 million, Innobic and Nove Foods, 50-50 to do plant-based protein business, which is the emerging trend. And this company will set up a factory with 3,000-tonne capacity per year. That is the big scale of its kind in Thailand for a plant-based protein. We see progress in the direction of life science for PPT. I understand that you heard the presentation from [ Dr. Bernin ]. And next, we purchased shares of GPSC from GC, about 12.73%. PTT on a whole will hold shares totaling 44.45% in GPSC, and that will bring us on par with other flagships of PTT. So that's in the power sector, which is -- which has prospects for high growth both in conventional and renewable power business. Next, PTT approved Enco, which is a subsidiary, and that's the joint venture between PPT and PTTEP to bid and buy the call center of Thai Airways International in order to accommodate the expansion of PTT's business. I've been told that there's already demand for 50% of the space. So those are key activities happening in the first quarter of the year. Next let's take a look at key business drivers. First of all, oil price itself, Dubai. Q-on-Q, Dubai averaging up 35% over Q4 2020. So from $44 to $60 per barrel. As you know well, due to the fact that OPEC+ strict compliance and the early part of the year, you will hear that Saudi volunteer another 1 million barrel cuts, and demand is improving due to vaccine rollout in different countries. And there's also the demand constraints from polar vortex in the U.S., resulting in disruption in many production facilities. So year-on-year increase as well, 18% from $50 to $60 per barrel. Looking at fuel oil price. Q-on-Q, up 28% from $14.1 (sic) [ $44.1 ] to $56 per barrel on the back of rising demand in the shipping sector. And also, LPG, which is the renewable, has increased call dramatically during the period, year-on-year up 30% from $43 to $55 per barrel. Natural gas Q-on-Q, up 3% from $5.6 per million BTU to $5.86 mainly because LNG import up by 14%, whereas gas in the Gulf -- gas price was quite stable year-on-year. The price is down by 19% from $7.26 to $5 because of the decrease in LNG imports from Myanmar, down by about 20%, and Gulf of Thailand supply down by 15%. Petrochem, olefins up both Q-on-Q and year-on-year. HDPE and PP price, up also on the back of improving economy plus demand from China as they stock up ahead of Chinese New Year and constraint of supply due to container shortage and polar vortex in the U.S. Aromatics price improved as well, both Q-on-Q and year-on-year. PX up back of higher crude oil and naphtha due to higher demand on the back of recovering economy and downstream such as textile, PET, resin, plastic bottles, improving demand from PTA -- new PTA factories in China with 4.9 million-ton capacity per year. In addition, tight supply due to shutdowns/maintenance in China and the polar vortex in U.S., resulting in temporary shutdowns. Benzene price is up also due to higher crude and naphtha as demand became higher and manufacturers of food packaging. Let's take a look at FX. Q-on-Q at the end of Q1 our end rate baht is THB 1.3 weaker, resulting in FX loss quite significantly: PTT Group as a whole, about THB 10 billion; and PTT alone, THB 1.7 billion. Whereas, Q4 2020, baht was strong and average -- monthly average of baht in Q1 is stronger by 0.4 compared with Q4 year-on-year end rate for baht, THB 1.3 lower than Q1 2020 and resulting in FX loss. FX loss is less when compared with Q1 '20. Monthly average, it is stronger by THB 1.1. So those are the key drivers impacting Q1 performance of PTT. Next, performance itself, I would like to invite Khun Pannalin, please.

So based on what CEO has already said about the key drivers in Q1, you can see that everything, whether it's the oil price, petrochemical prices, they are better. As a result, in terms of performance, you can guess that the performance of PTT Group is better whether it's on a year-on-year or Q-on-Q basis. So if we go to slide -- Page 6, it's the overview picture. So based on that key drivers, whether it's revenue, EBITDA or net income, so everything is higher. In terms of revenue, I'm going to talk about Q-on-Q figures only. So revenue from our business increased by 17%, thanks to the price of the products as well as surging demands. EBITDA also increased Q-on-Q 44% from several businesses, from gas, oil business and P&R., and we also get the stock gain. And the spread of the petrochemical products are also better, whether it's coming from demands, as already stated, as well as higher price of products. In terms of E&P, average price are also higher, whereas the operating expenses are lower. At the same time, sales volumes also increased by 1% mainly from Block 61 in Oman and Bongkot project. In terms of the gas separation projects, sales volumes and sales price also increased. Trading and oil are also higher. So eventually, the net income also increased more than 100% Q-on-Q and -- as already explained. And besides the impairment in Q1, there was no impairment in Q1. And there's a profit from the PTTEP from the acquisition of its Oman businesses and net with the impairment of the assets as a result of the valuation of assets in the Brazil project. So eventually, the result is positive. However, factors that could affect the performance is the loss on negative -- loss on derivatives. So this is the negative factor. And there are also tax expenses which is higher as a result of the operating -- higher operating profits and as well as the loss from the FX, as the CEO has already explained. So now we are coming to each business. So in terms of E&P, as you have already heard, the sales price increased by 10%, the sales volumes increased by 1%. So the net profit of PTTEP on a Q-on-Q basis is more than 100%. So aside from the normal operating profits, they also have lower operating expense. They also gained profits. However, they have the higher expense in terms of exploration and also higher tax as a result of the higher profits. In terms of PTT, you can see that right now, they're our main businesses, which are natural gas and trading. So EBITDA in terms of Q-on-Q is higher by 39% both in natural gas business and trading business. So starting from the natural gas business, the EBITDA is increasing by 34% from every unit of business except the NGV. So started by S&M, you can see EBITDA increased by 71%. So this is a result of the sales volumes which increased by 8% and mainly is a result of the clients in the electricity business. The sales volumes increased by 12%. The gas separation projects increased by 4% because in this quarter, there was no shutdown. Industrial clients also increased by 2% as a result of the refinery projects. And you can see the NGV, the reduction is about 6% because cars using NGVs are down because they turned to other types of energy. Our average price for industrial clients also increased. The cost of natural gas also increased a bit by 3% mainly from LNG. Gas in Gulf of Thailand and in Burma is -- remained table. In terms of pipeline business, the EBITDA is stable. And regarding the GSP, EBITDA increased by more than 100%. As I have already said, the average sales price as a result of the increases of referenced petrochemical price. And the main increase is a result of the propane and ethane. And cost of -- the cost of GSP also remained stable. In terms of NGV, the loss increased by 39%. This is because of the decline of the income. Regarding others, you can see that the profit is also higher. However, in this quarter, the performance is coming from PTTNGD. And this is because of higher sales price as a result of the higher fuel oil. And sales volumes also increased. Trading business. The EBITDA of trading business is also increased by more than 100%, and sales volumes increased by 1% because of LNG and LPG out-out have been sold. And actually, there are also sales of petrochemical products, and that's why EBITDA of trading is increased by more than 100%. Now I am going to the oil business. So we try to present the information so that it aligns with the OR business that has already been listed in the SET. So we divided the OR group into oil business and non-oil business. Oil business performance is better because of the higher gross margin per liter, which is 27%. And there is also a higher stock gain. However, sales volumes of the oil business is down by 6% because of the new surge of COVID-19. In terms of non-oil business, you can see that Q-on-Q performance is declining. And mainly because of the sales volumes in terms of the number of cafés of Amazon, it is down by 1%, and this is largely because of the COVID-19 and some Amazon outlets in certain areas are temporarily closed, and we also reduced the rent for certain operators. And that's why its Q1 performance is a little bit declining. However, you can see that the net income is increased by 37% Q-on-Q and mainly from the stock gain. And if you can see here that the stock gain Q-on-Q is higher by 70 -- by 42% or about THB 1 billion. In terms of P&R business, Q-on-Q performance is also better, whether it's about olefin, refinery or aromatics businesses. Olefin is getting better because of the constantly increase of the products -- of the price of the products. Sales volume is also down a little bit. And you can see that from 110% to 105% because of the HDPE, 1.1 of HDPE. Aromatics performance is also better, whether it's benzene spread or other spread, whereas the utility rate remains the same, and this is because of the demands of the downstream products, which is increasing. In terms of refinery, the utility rate is slightly increased by 1%. And if you can -- if you see GRM, the market GRM is better from 1.2 to 1.92. However, what really affects is the stock gain, and you can see that it increased quite a lot from 1.9 to 5.1, whereas the hedging loss is also declining. And as a result, the accounting GRM is increasing -- increase. So all of this results in the increase of the net income of the P&E -- P&R business by 22% Q-on-Q or about THB 18 million. You can -- you may ask that, well, the net income is only 22% increase, right, which is not much. However, you can see that the record of the asset in Q1 compared to Q4 is down. And in terms of the GPSC, sales volumes are down by 1% and mainly because of the STP (sic) [ SPP ] power plant, of which their sales volumes is slightly declining. As a result, the gross margin increased by 8%. Sales volumes increased just a little bit, but they get it from margins, increasing margins from the industrial clients. And as a result, the gross profit margin increased by 8%. The net profit increased by 35% mainly from the increase of the gross profit margin together with other increase -- increase of either incomes. For example, the sales of GRP, 50% shares of GRP to PTT. And also, the increase of the tax because last year, they used the loss carryforward. And in addition, they also enjoyed the lower profits from the Xayaburi hydro power plant in Lao PDR, and that's why the record is lower. In the next page, you can see that in terms of operating net income, excluding extra items and stock gain, and you can see that the performance is better by 25% from THB 15 billion to THB 19 billion. However, in terms of bottom line, the net income increased by more than 100%. In terms of categorical products, you can see that the margin is nearly THB 20 billion. So every business is enjoying a great margin except our OR business. In terms of stock gain and loss, the -- we got the gain for about THB 7 billion. In terms of OpEx, it's a positive impact. So it's down by THB 3.9 billion, and this is mainly from the cost -- the decline of the maintenance cost. And in terms of depreciation and amortization, it's slightly increased by THB 200 million. Other income also increased by THB 5.8 billion, and mainly it comes from profit from the acquisition of the Oman project, which is lower than the book value, and we net it with the write-off of the project in Brazil. In terms of impairment, it's down by THB 9 billion. And if you remember, in Q4, we did the impairment of THB 4.7 billion in Q4 and from -- THB 3 billion from PTTEP and about THB 456 million in IRPC. And that's why that was -- that happened in Q4. However, this does not exist in Q1. In terms of the derivative loss, it's higher by the -- THB 50 billion, and this is divided into THB 13 billion loss of FX, whereas the derivative loss also increased by THB 2.8 billion, and this is the negative factor. And the last column is the interest and current income tax expenses plus NCI. It's also a negative effect by about THB 10 billion. You can see that NCI is also increased by THB 8 billion. Tax expenses also increased by THB 3 billion because of a better performance. At the same time, interest income also increased by THB 1 billion as a result of higher loan. And as a result, the net income result in about THB 32 billion. In terms of balance sheet, you will see that the assets increased by 8% or about THB 200 billion. The assets have increased. Mainly, you will see that PPP is up because EP's acquisition of Oman and construction work of CFP of Thai Oil. Recurring (sic) [ current ] assets up by THB 60 billion due to receivables and inventories that increased on the back of higher oil price. And nonrecurrent (sic) [ noncurrrent ] assets increased by about THB 35 billion, mainly because the outstanding tax and the acquisition of Oman. In terms of cash and short-term investment, higher because of investment in short term due to higher interest for deposits. Liabilities, increase chiefly because of interest-bearing debt, up by about THB 55 billion because PTT borrowed long term and the issue of debentures mainly from GC. Other debt and liability increase also due to receivables on the back of higher oil price. For equities, increase because the net income of THB 20 -- 32 billion and factors beyond control, about THB 40 billion, due to the capital increase of OR. Financial ratio, you will see that net debt-to-EBITDA has improved from 1.68 to 1.39. Even though net debt increased, but EBITDA increased at higher rate, resulting in financial ratio improving. For net debt-to-equity, it's equal to year-end 2020 at 0.29, within the policy benchmark of PTT Group. This slide on cash flows -- at the start of the year, we have about THB 333 billion cash in hand; towards end of quarter, THB 320 billion, slight decrease due to cash flow from operation higher by THB 50 billion, but we have investment activities to the tune of THB 145 billion due to EP's investment in Oman project and the payment of CapEx from various projects, be it Thai Oil, GC and PTT itself investing in the fifth pipeline and PTT LNG investment. All these result in free cash flow in red by THB 94 billion. But looking at financing activity, cash in of THB 84 billion because of OR shares and higher borrowing to the tune of THB 37 billion. So cash in of about THB 84 billion. All told, all activities, the cash out for the period is at THB 12 billion, resulting in quarter at end of quarter THB 32 billion plus short-term investment of PTT Group at THB 118 billion, resulting in towards end of quarter cash and investment combined are THB 438 billion, which makes us ready for investments. Next, I would like to present outlook starting with economic outlook, global economic outlook from IMF. So world economy forecast, 6%; U.S., 6.4%; Euro area, 4%; China 8%; Japan 3%; India 12.5% subject to -- but that figure came out before the latest outbreak. It has to be shaved off by 1% to 3% for India. Different drivers, we know well about the new round of economic stimulus, especially President Biden in the U.S., $1.9 trillion package approved in March. That will be a major booster. And vaccine rollout, many countries around are doing it. Now 600 million people are vaccinated. And adaptation to new normals. Of course, the negative factors to watch for, the outbreaks would not end soon. It can come back as soon as the guards are down. We have to watch for the variants and mutations. And recovery of different countries vary according to economic fundamentals of those countries as well as the government's management of the outbreak. For example, for Thailand, we -- well, our figures, our numbers are lower than world average. We -- our economy is projected to at just 2% because the Thai economy is very dependent on tourism, tourist arrivals. With the next -- with the new wave of outbreaks in Thailand, it really hits the economy hard. Last year, we contracted by 6%. So this year, the projection, from -- a range from 1% to 3%, but the latest projection is in the range of 2%. We don't see 3% any more, taking into account the latest wave of COVID outbreak. We hope that the global economic recovery will boost our exports, even though tourism is not back yet for the time being. In terms of vaccine rollout, we -- Thailand may start late. But hopefully, after June, as far the government data tell us, they are procuring vaccination -- vaccine dosages en masse. If well managed, the rollout will improve in the latter half of the year. And relief measures, the government continues. Factors to watch out for. The third wave is not over yet. If it is contained -- nobody can tell whether and when the fourth wave will arrive. As long as there is no herd immunity, the risk stay and it will impact the opening up of the country for tourism. And the scarring, the consequences from COVID to date, how these can be healed in terms of firms going under. Next petroleum and gas outlook. Let's start with petroleum product. We anticipate that prices will increase basically across the board, across items. Dubai Crude should be in the range of $60 to $65 per barrel. Last year, the average is at $42 per barrel. Demand is likely to increase on the back of recovery. It is forecast that demands for crude would be 96 million to 97 million barrels, up by 5 million to 6 million barrels per day over last year. And OPEC+, as we speak, it is still -- they are still working together well in cutting output. So hopefully, they will continue, they will stay on track and geopolitical risks still prevail in Libya, U.S. sanctions on Iran. These are positive factors for pricing. And the negative factor would be the resurgence of COVID in high-demand countries, India, Brazil, Japan and several other countries. In terms of products, gasoline, it's expected to average at $67 spread at $9 per barrel compared with $4 spread last year. Positive factors, light distillate inventory of Singapore is back to normal. And surely, come June and July, it would be the peak season. Gas oil average price should be tune of $65 to $75, whereas spread would be about $7 per barrel compared with $6 per barrel last year. Demand is anticipated to increase as industrial growth pick up. Supply remains high, so that's negative. And distillate inventory of Singapore is relatively high compared with MoGas. So that will be the pressure factor for pricing. High-sulfur fuel oil average price should hover at $54 to $64. Spread, minus $4 per barrel. Demand is expected to be higher due to power sector demand. And supply, as I said, it will be strained due to reduced capacity from OPEC+ producers. Lower-sulfur -- very-low-sulfur fuel oil, less than 0.5 sulfur. It should stay at $66 to $76. Spread at $8 a barrel. Bunker demand is likely to improve. Singapore GRM, this year, it should be in the range of $2 to $2.5, much better than last year at $0.4. Gas. Asian spot LNG should average between $8.2 to $9.2 per million BTU. Gas price in Europe increases due to severe winter. That will push up Asian spot price as well. But the range will be narrow because buyers in Asia in part have already procured LNG in advance. Henry Hub average at $2.5 to $3.1 per barrel due to steadily increasing demand. So that's the forecast for petroleum product. Next, petrochemical outlook. In olefins, the short-term supply remains tight due to U.S. plant outages from polar vortex and also limited export to Asia. In addition, the delayed startup of [ PRPP ], the RAPID project of Malaysia, to the latter half of the year. The capacity, PE, 750,000 tons per year and 900,000 per year for PP. And demand is expected to contract during various long holidays, off-line demand countries, ranging from the Ramadan period, labor holidays and pressure from additional capacities from Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, especially China. In the second quarter, the HDPE price is predicted to increase by about 30% to $1,120 to $1,170 per ton, and PP yarn to $1,270. For aromatics, PX benzene will equalize due to higher demand and economic recovery. And now the inventories in China are low. So that's positive factor. Whereas, negative factors, pressures will come from PTA and end products, where demand remain weak with new supplies in the pipeline of PX and benzene: from China's PX, about 4 million ton; benzene, about 1.5 million; plus Saudi's Aramco PX, 850,000; and benzene, about 200,000 in the latter half. Pricing-wise, benzene should be up by 60% from $485 to $785 to $835 per ton this year. PX, 39% increase from $577 to $775 up to $825. Naphtha, positive factor is supported by new petrochemicals to be COD-ed. And negative factors, supply remains high from refineries that will pick up their capacity. Naphtha is expected to increase from last year from $380 per ton to $550 to $600 in 2021. Next is PTT Group guidance, activities to come. The core business for PTT gas business, the natural gas demand will increase from 439 billion per day mainly from power sector. And sales in petrochemical sector will increase, resulting in utilization rate in the range of 92% to 94% compared with 87.8% of last year. The flat pooled gas cost is another factor. The -- through our subsidiaries for E&P business, crude oil price is expected to recover. As already mentioned, volume is anticipated to rise by 14%, well, from 340,000 barrel per day to 400,000 and more competitive costs as we manage to drive costs down by another 5% from $30.5 to $28 per barrel in unit cost mainly due to the acquisition of Block 61 Oman with low cost and can produce immediately. Oil -- OR is expected to improve in the latter half of this year. In 2021, we intend to add 192 stations into the portfolio, of which 110 inside Thailand, 82 outside. For non-oil, we aim to expand Amazon Café, adding 500, 400 or so in Thailand and 132 outside Thailand. P&R, the refineries are expected to recover from last year, Singapore GRM to improve and utilization rate is expected to be 97% to 99% compared with 96% last year. Petchem, the spread should increase across all items, as reported. And the production volume will increase, both olefins and aromatics. For the power business, GPSC, industrial sector demand, especially for steam for Map Ta Phut, should increase by 4% this year. For maintenance schedule for PTT Group, as shown in the slide, so that's routing maintenance and shutdown, for upcoming projects, mostly proceed according to plans. In Q2, 5 projects are expected for PTT itself. The gas pipeline Ratchaburi-Wangnoi stretch GPSC, the Rayong waste-to-energy plant in Rayong, consisting of waste separation plant and conversion to energy and power generation capacity of 9.8 megawatts. So that's expected to COD Q2. GPSC has a energy storage business, 30 megawatts using semisolid technology of 24M. GC,Map Ta Phut retrofit is expected to wrap up to improve olefins production, 750 kton per year. And GC increases capacity for PTA and PET. PTA, from 970 to 1,400 kton per annum; PET, from 147 to 200 kton. This is supposed to finish in Q2, latter half of 2021. Two projects are anticipated: the fifth pipeline of PTT and plastic -- high-grade plastic recycling project of GC. Capacity -- combined capacity of 45 kton per annum. So that's the picture ahead for 2021. So that ends the presentation. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]