PTT Public Company Limited (PTT) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon, analysts, fund manager, and management and employees of PTTEP. I'd like to welcome you to the analyst meeting for Q3 and 9 months of 2023. So we still organized this event for -- as an online -- on an online platform, and we broadcast live through Facebook for PTT IR for Thai language and PTT and IR for English language, and we also provide interpretation for equal access to information, whether stakeholders are Thai or foreigners. The second broadcast is through Microsoft Teams. And during the event, if you have any question [Operator Instructions]. So before we go into our core session, I would like to introduce the PTT's management who are here today. The first one, Khun Auttapol Rerkpiboon, CEO, Chief Executive Officer; Khun Pannalin Mahawongtikul, Chief Financial Officer. In addition, we also have other management who will answer your question during the Q&A. Khun Wuttikorn Stithit, Chief Operating Officer, Upstream Petroleum and Khun Noppadol Pinsupa, Chief Operating Officer, Downstream Petroleum Business Group. Without further ado, I would like CEO and CFO to announce our performance.

Good afternoon, analysts, finance manager, fund managers. So for today, we are going to inform you the -- our performance for Q3 and 9 months of 2023. So I will start by highlighting the key activities in Q3. So we have 2 sections, the core business and future energy. For core business, the retail NGV price will -- up to 31st of December 2023. For taxi, we -- the price was increased from THB 13.62 to THB 14.62 and for public bus from THB 17.59 to THB 18.59 and for general cars or general vehicle, the price was increased to THB 19.59. So about THB 1 was increase. And in addition, we also paid an interim dividend for THB 0.80 per share, altogether THB 20.851 million (sic) [ THB 22,851 million ] and the payout ratio is about 48%. The payment was made on October 28 (sic) [ October 20 ]. For GC, we did the Olefin 2 Modification Project and COD started already on -- in Q3. So it means that GC will be able to increase olefins use such -- to enhance feedstock flexibility and long-term competitiveness. In addition, but PTTEP also signed an agreement to acquire 33.33% in block G12/48 from TotalEnergies, and this should be complete by the end of this year which means PTTEP will have 100% investment in the block, and this is according to PTTEP's investment plan to invest -- to expand its investment in Thailand for future energy and beyond. Arun Plus has established a joint venture company with KYMCO group. And in this company, Arun Plus holds 51%. The rest is held by KYMCO, and this business will sell and produce 2-wheel electric vehicles and to provide battery swapping service, and this 2-wheel EV will be commercialized by next year. Another thing is the Plant & Bean factory, and this is a joint venture between NRPT, which is PTT's joint venture through Innobic as well as the Plant & Bean U.K., and the plant will start its first phase commercial operation in Q4 this year with a production capacity of 3,000 tons per year. So the factory will produced fully integrated plant-based protein food. And Avaada Energy, which GPSC holds 42.93%. So this company, Avaada Energy, won the award for additional solar projects in India with a total capacity of 1.4 gigawatts. So it means that the renewable capacity portfolio of PTT already increased to 4.5 gigawatts from the target of 15 (sic) [ 12 ] gigawatt by 2013 (sic) [ 2030 ]. And regarding our awards and recognition, so we won 2 awards. So the first one is the Sustainability Awards of Honor. So -- and this award means that you have to at least win 3 sustainable -- sustainability award for 3 consecutive years. And in addition, we also win the Innovative Company Awards of Honor and our rating is at the highest, which is AAA. So that is the activities highlight. Regarding the key driver, so the average Dubai price for Q3 is $86.7. So this represents 11% Q-on-Q increase, and this is a result of increasing demand, especially from transportation sector where supply remains tight. This is because the OPEC [indiscernible] reduces production yet compared to the first 9 months of last year, which was 2022, it means that the price was down by 19%. So the first 9 months of last year was USD 100 per barrel to right now, $81.6 and last year, the main concern was the war between Russia and Ukraine. But right now, that concern was weakening. And besides, demands were also lower because of the weakening recovery of the global economy. So regarding the pool gas cost in Q3 and this stands at USD 8.7 per million -- mmbtu. So this was a result of the lower import of ING (sic) [ LNG ] and lower price of Myanmar gas and for the average price for the first 9 months, it was down by 14% Q-on-Q (sic) [ year to date ]. So from $11.3/barrel to $9.7/barrel, and this was a result of lower LNG spot although the imported LNG spot increased. The first 9 months of this year is about 72 vessels compared to last year of 51 vessels. For petroleum price -- reference price, so in terms of Q-on-Q, it was down by 0.4%. HDPE price was down because of the high inventory and the PX price also increased as a result of the crude oil increase as well as the demands of Downstream, whether it's in term of PTA or polyester, which were increased. So the average price for the first 9 months for HDPE and PX, the price was down by 17% and 9% consecutively compared to the first -- to the same period a year before, and this was a result of the lower price of crude oil and naphtha because of the slower recovery of the Chinese economy. So the net profit of PTT Group in Q3 stands at THB 31.2 billion, and this represents an increase of 56% compared to last -- the previous quarter, and this was a result of the strong operating performance, higher stock gains, although there was an increased loss of derivatives for the first 9 months of this year. Net profit increased by 9%, mainly from the low loss of derivatives and higher foreign exchange gain.

Thank you very much. The CEO has just mentioned about the key drivers that will affect the performance of PTT Group. Well, actually, we have reported our financial statements from the [ 13 ], and we had a conference call once so you might have encountered this kind of information already. So I'm going to go briefly on the information for ones who have not access to the information yet. Starting from quarterly information. Q-on-Q, if you look at the revenue, Q3 increased the -- revenue increased by 3% or THB 25 billion, mainly from the price of Dubai oil last quarter is USD 78 but Q3 is USD 83. Mainly, it's from trading and E&P, revenue increased due to the higher price of petroleum and also for the sales volume, which is higher. For P&R and oil, revenue increased in line with the higher average selling price. Even though P&R and oil, the sales volume is lower. For the gas business, revenue dropped mainly from S&M which decreased as we sale less gas to the power plants as the demand is lower. And also for the hydro power plant, they can generate more power due to the seasonal water. And also, the average selling price is down in line with pool gas price. For the GSP revenue increase as we can produce more in line with the higher volume of gas production from G1/61 of PTT. For NBI, new business, revenue is down mainly from GPSC as the price of power and steam is down, even though we have sale higher. PTTGM revenue increased due to the medicine business, especially in the U.S. and in South Korea. EBITDA Q-on-Q increased quite significantly by 58% or about THB 53 billion, mainly from P&R business, business increased in Q3. Refinery business is quite good due to the higher market GRM from USD 4.1 per barrel in Q2 to USD 11.3 in Q3, mainly it's from the spread of the diesel, jet fuel and crude oil price. So the revenue of Thai Oil is getting a lot better from the higher crude oil price. Also, for the stock gain, it increased in Q3. Petrochemical business EBITDA increased mainly from olefins because of higher sales volume, while the EBITDA of aromatics decreased mainly from the spread of benzene and PX is lower. For E&P, EBITDA increased from the average selling price and sales volume even though expenditures is higher. Oil business unit margin increased even though we have lower sales volume, NBI increased from GPSC from the higher sales volume of power and steam. The margin of SPP also is higher. For gas, EBITDA increased as NGV is getting better as the CEO has just mentioned. Pool gas cost is lower, in line of the pool gas. But for the average selling price it's shooting up. So the loss of NGV is lower. For the GSP, EBITDA increased following the higher sales volume, but for S&M, it decreased both from the lower average selling price and the lower sales volume. Net income Q-on-Q is up by 56% or about THB 11 billion, mainly because of the lower FX loss, about THB 6 billion because for the Thai baht, it depreciates less compared to the previous quarter. But the negative factor, there is derivative loss, which increased because of the GRM in Q3. GRM of the refinery is quite good. We already locked the derivative. So the derivative loss is higher. But because we did the hedging, it means we have the physical gain. Normally, for the hedging of these derivatives, it is quite a small percentage so for the physical gain is a lot bigger. For tax -- income tax, it's increased because of performance of TOP and E&P. Nonrecurring, compare Q-on-Q, there's not much change. Now to the 9-month performance. This year compared to last year, revenue is down by 9% or about THB 230 billion, mainly from Dubai price. 9 months last year, it's about USD 100 but now it's only USD 82. So it affects the revenue. For trading -- for all of the categories, it's down, starting from trading, revenue is down due to lower average selling price despite higher sales volume. P&R revenue is down mainly from the refinery business because of lower average selling price despite higher sales volume. For petrochemical business, revenue is down both for olefin and aromatics, due to lower average selling price and sales volume. Gas revenue is down mainly from S&M in line with pool gas price and also for the selling price to industrial clients is down due to the reference formula. For TM, the transmission business, revenue is down as the transmission rate is down according to the ERC resolution since last August. GSP revenue is down also as all of the average selling price of our products of -- petrochemical products is down and also sales volume is down. For other businesses, revenue is down as we already divested coal mining in first Q of this year. EBITDA is down by 18% or about THB 73 billion, mainly from P&R business. Refinery EBITDA is down with lower market GRM from USD 11.4 to USD 7.9 per barrel in 9 months this year. Even though the crude premium is down, still it doesn't offset the amount. And also for the stock gain, it's down as the crude oil price is less than last year. Petrochemical business is down mainly from the spread -- smaller spread of olefin. For aromatics it's up due to the better spread of PX and feedstock. However, all of the sales volume of all products is down, in line with the turnaround of aromatics and olefins this year, which is more and longer than last year. For other business, mainly it's from the divestment of coal business. E&P EBITDA is down as the sales volume is a little bit up, but for the average selling price, it is a lot down. And also, there is more expenditures from G1/61 and G2/62 expenditures with higher sales volume. For the gas business, EBITDA is down mainly from GSP transmission, also EBITDA is down, as previously explained. For the net income, it's higher by 9% or about THB 6.7 billion. For the positive factors, apart from the business factors, we have a lower derivative loss by THB 52 billion because last year, PTT grew -- has quite a lot of derivative loss. And this year, we changed the management of derivatives management. So this is a positive factor for us this year. For the FX gain, it's increased by THB 27 billion as baht depreciates less. Last year, it's about THB 4.48 but this year, it's about THB 2. So it's almost 100% better. Tax income, it's down by THB 11 billion. But the negative factor of financing costs increased by THB 7.5 billion, mainly from the loan and debentures, which is bigger and also for the interest rate in the market, which is higher, and we have higher interest burden. For the nonrecurring items, 9 months this year, we have not material items. For example, the amortization of the expiry of Bongkot Project, that's THB 500 million. The impairment of PTTGM, [ THB 80 million ]. Positive factors is the discount of gas shortfall of PTT, that's THB 110 million and the compensation from BP Singapore, and that's THB 560 million. Compared to last year, the nonrecurring items, we have the negative factor of THB 2.6 billion, mainly from the impairment of assets for sales of PTTEP. For the waterfall, this is the breakdown of each category, how it affects our net income. If you look at the margin, it's higher, almost THB 30 billion. So that is up for all of the business units compared to Q2. GRM is -- market GRM is better, petrochemical. Olefin is better. E&P, the margin is higher. For oil business, margin unit is better. NBI is better from GPSC and for the gas, it's better from NGV. For the impact of stock gain, we have positive impact. That's about THB 24.5 billion. For the OpEx, it's a little bit up by THB 500 million from the loyalty fee of PTTEP in line with the revenue of the projects in Thailand and Malaysia, which is increasing. DD&A, it's up by THB 7.348 billion, mainly from PTTEP's project G1/61 which has higher sales volume and assets for use. So we would have more DD&A. For other income, it's higher, that's positive impact, THB 246 million with more interest received. And for FX and derivative loss, it's higher by THB 13 billion as previously explained. If we split it into category, derivative loss increased by THB 19 billion but for FX loss, it's lower by THB 6.1 billion because baht depreciates less. And the last column, the interest, corporate income tax and noncontrolling interest, it's a negative impact to net income. That's about THB 23 billion, mainly from more tax, that's THB 10 billion. NCI increased by THB 8 billion in line with better performance. So on the next slide, this is the details of the volume. And I think you have already received the information. So I'm going to skip it and to the balance sheet, the financial position. You can see that the total assets for PTT has been increased by 4%, and this is mainly from cash and short-term investment, which increased by THB 93 billion, and this is mainly from the operating activities and the PPE, property, plant and equipment increased by THB 54 billion, this is a result of the [ access ] of PTTEP in G1/61 and G2/61 and Thai Oil's construction projects as well as the stations and the port projects. And the noncurrent assets increased by THB 1.9 billion and this is a result of the increase of the capital of Avaada in India and deferred tax liability also decrease and there's also the spread from the conversion of financial statements and for liabilities and other current accounts, it was down by THB 27 billion, and this was because the decline or [ default ] of other receivable. And right now, we got a repayment from the fund, and that's why receivables are down as well as the trade receivable was increased. And for payables and other liability this in -- and for the community derivatives was also down, the interest-bearing debt also slightly increased by THB 1.8 billion. This is because [ PTT ] has already repaid during the period rather than borrowing. The shareholders' equity also increased because of the profit by THB 50 billion. And in addition -- and also for the NBI, we have about THB 26 billion. For the NBI, net debt to EBITDA is increased by 1.71 to 1.79. IBD decrease, but the proportion of the decrease is smaller than the decreased rate of EBITDA. So it's improved a little bit. Net debt to equity is down from 0.55 to 0.46x from decreased net debt while increased equity. So for the rating, it is still the same at a country level. For the cash flow, as at 30th of September -- so at the beginning of the period, we have cash of THB 340 billion, free cash flow also increased by THB 155 billion, and this is a result of the operating cash flow. And this is almost about THB 295 billion and also, we -- the financing activity is about THB 103 billion, and this is a result of the PTTEP's investment as well as investment of other companies within the group such as Thai Oil, TOP, and IRPC for the financing activities. So it is mainly of the dividend payment of PTT and PTTEP as well as paying and repaying of PTT's loans and therefore, the cash between the period increased by THB 61 billion, and this stands at THB 401 billion.

So I'm going to talk about the outlook. So we will start at the global economic trend. So we think that next year, the global trend will grow by 2.9% compared to this year, which is about 3%. Negative factors is a result of the increase of the interest policy, the policy interest rate of central banks. In addition, the Chinese economy also recovered far later or far slower than expected because of its problem in the property sector. And -- however, it is forecasted that the increase of the interest in rates in developed countries should be probably at the end of it. And for example, several countries such as the U.S., the labor, its labor market remained strong. So this is going to propel the expansion of the economies next year. For the Thai economy, in next year, it is expected to grow by 3.2%, and the growth is -- we will continue from this year to [ employ ] 7% positive factors, the growth of export market, whereas the tourism sector also expand continuously. In addition, there are drives or support from the public sector, especially in terms of the digital wallet policy. Negative factors are demands where the commodity price may be higher and the cost of food could be higher, and this is a result of the El Nino situation and could pressure the inflation besides the higher debt -- household debt level will put pressure to the spending of the household sector. In terms of commodity price, LNG price, Henry Hub for next year should be down by 4% to remain at [ $2.5 to $2.9 ] -- million btu and this is because demand from the U.S. remained stable due to the economic condition besides the more use of renewable energy and in the U.S., it is expected that the production of gas will be transformed into LNG for export. For ASEAN spot LNG, we expect that next year, it will be down by 11%. Average price will be around $11.5 to $13.5, and this is a result of an increasing use of renewable energy. In addition, the European commission's policy also expand the period when the target to reduce the use of gas by 15% from the -- this year, at the end of 31st March to 31st March next year. And besides the resources of natural gas in Europe and Asia remains high. So this will put pressure to the export price of LNG. However, positive factors are LNG export volume of [indiscernible] is expected to be down and demands of the global economy will probably increase as a result of the GDP growth. Regarding the oil price, Dubai oil price is expected to be down by 5% and will be around to $76 to $81 per barrel. And this is a result of the concern of the economic recovery. And in addition, there will be pressure from increasing supply from non-OPEC countries and other positive factors include the fewer concern of the geopolitical factors such as the war between Russia and Ukraine and conflict between Israel and Hamas. And the Chinese economy should be better, thanks to its -- the government's economic stimulus package. And however, the OPEC plus countries remain strong in terms of reducing its products. For FO price, the price should be down by 2% in line with the Dubai direction. The bunker oil, its prospect is better. It is expected that demand for bunker oil will increase because most ships will be equipped with scrubber and these ships will be out by next year. So for Singapore GRM next year, is likely to be down by 26% to remain at $4.4 and $5.4 barrel -- $4.4 and $5.4 and this is a result of the weakening economy whereas the supply will increase as a result of the start-up of new refinery especially in Nigeria. For petrochemical products price in next year, this is quite a challenge because of demand for Downstream products, which gradually recover and because of the new -- because of the pressure of the new supply. And so we think that the latter half of next year, it should be better, and we have to monitor it. Regarding PTT's -- the operating performance of companies within the group. For PTTEP, we think that next year's sales volume will increase, and this is thanks to G1/61 sources where we think that the ramp-up production will be up to its full capacity at 800 mmscfd in April 2024, whereas PTTEP is also able to maintain its unit cost at the competitive level. For the gas business, we expect that the demand for natural gas will increase in line with the better economic condition, the gas volumes in the Gulf of Thailand, production is higher and production capacity of the GSP will be around 80% to 85%. And for cost of pool gas, we expect it to be down due to the lower spot LNG and the price -- the market price is also expected to be down because of the higher volume of the gulf gas. And for the OR business, we think that sales volume will increase in line with the more active economic condition and for the P&R, we think that this will be pressured the overall economic condition, as I said before, GRM is expected to be down for utilization rate. We expected it to be up because of the higher demand for domestic oil. For petrochemical business, we think that the spread between products will be down, which is in line with the global economic outlook. And also, because of new supplies for GPSC, demands for domestic power will increase and the margin is also increased because the price of the fuel for its production is down. For the future in energy. Right now, there are so many expansion, whether it's in the renewable energy through GPSC, the expanding -- expansion of the ecosystem of the EV value chain, whether it's through EV charger batteries and the sales and distribution of the 2-wheel EV. So all of this will generate income to the business. For the beyond business, we expect to receive the income from various projects which we'll start to launch commercial -- we'll start to complete its project and start its commercial activities. So products will be gradually enter the market. For example, the plant-based protein, nutritions and so on. Now for our future business. We have projects like pipeline, #5, Phase I and Phase III, that's completed. For Phase II, it's expected to be done within next year. So that -- this will help for the energy security and the distribution of the gas from the east to the west. Gas separation #7 to replace #1, which is 30 years old already. Capacity would be quite the same at 460 million mmscfd (sic) [ 460 mmscfd ]. Technology is designed to manage gas -- carbon dioxide gas so capacity would be better than gas separation #1 expected to be done by next year. Ultra Clean Fuel, UCF which belongs to IRPC, this is to upgrade the refinery and to increase the quality of diesel oil to be in line with Euro 5 standard expected to be COD in Q1 of next year. CFP of Thai Oil, COD is expected next year or to 2025. So the units would be up separately. For the full phase, capacity, refining capacity would increase from 275,000 to 400,000 barrel per day. So they will cut the production costs and also increase the level of flexibility to receive crude oil like they can receive a more heavy crude oil, which is cheaper. They also can increase the product yield to change the fuel oil to jet oil and diesel oil, which is of higher price so this would increase the level of competitiveness of Thai Oil. For the new business, future energy and beyond, there would be projects in the pipeline. For EV value chain, battery plant co-invested with NV Gotion to produce lithium-ion battery model. This can be used as energy storage and for EV with a capacity of 4,000-megawatt hour expected to be done in Q4 of this year. For the assembly plant of battery lithium-ion cell-to-pack technology, we use the technology of CATL, which is of world-class technology. So we don't have to use the model anymore, and it will increase the battery sale and also cut down the production cost. The capacity is 6,000-megawatt hour expected to be done next year. We also have the manufacturer facilities of EV, co-invested with Horizontal (sic) [ Horizon ] Plus and Foxconn with a capacity of 50,000 vehicles per year, COD next year, we already have the land, and now we are looking for the construction company. For renewable energy that was already awarded, it would be constructed and coming up, mainly in India. We also have the offshore wind farm project in Taiwan, COD by next year. For the shutdown plan, starting from the gas separation plant #1, turnaround for 11 days. 5, 6 is about 45 days and 35 days. And for GC Ole 2/2, major turnaround is 19 days, and all the others are like ranging from 15 to 34 days. Looking at the turnaround plan, it would be shorter than the previous years so the production rate would be higher. So this is the performance of PTT for Q3. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]