PTT Public Company Limited (PTT) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon, the analysts, the fund managers, management executives and other staff of PTT. I guess we have enjoyed our ice cream, right? We have 2 flavors altogether, and it's still available outside. I'm [indiscernible] from the IR of PTT. And I would like to welcome everyone to PTT Analyst Meeting for Q4 and for 2023. We have conducted physical meeting today so we can meet each other face-to-face among the fund managers and the analysts. So this is the first time of the year, so we just hope that you get a lot of insights from this analyst meeting. The first session would be the declaration of the performance of PTT for Q4 and 2023 by the CEO and the CFO. The second session would be the Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] May I now introduce our executives attending the analyst meeting with us today. May I invite Dr. Buranin Rattanasombat, Chief New Business and Infrastructure officer. May I invite Khun Noppadol Pinsupa, the COO, Downstream Petroleum Business Group. May I invite Khun Wuttikorn Stithit, the COO, Upstream Petroleum and Gas Business Group. May I invite Khun Pannalin Mahawongtikul, the CFO. And may I now invite Khun Auttapol Rerkpiboon, the CEO and President. So we have 5 executive officers together with us to meet the analysts. In the first session, it would be the announcement of the performance of Q4 and 2023. May I now ask Khun Auttapol.

Good afternoon, the fund managers and the analysts. Today, we have the physical meeting so that we can meet each other. I don't know whether you are going to be happy with our performance, but let's have a look. May I now start with our key activities in 2023. Our PTTEP, they are quite successful in finding the gas and natural oil for 3 more discoveries in Malaysia. So this is quite a very good and lucrative sites after we have discovered from somewhere else. PTTEP also was awarded to fields in Gulf of Thailand, and that's G1 and G3 of 65 in Thailand. For PTT LNG, we already finished the construction of Terminal 2 in 2022 and then we started the operation fully. So we started recognition of revenue in 2023. For Project One, which is the project between PTT Group, downstream business, we exchange products to buy and sell together as one voice to the market to gain more level of negotiation internationally. So we were quite successful with that, and we can create synergy value among PTT Group, about USD 180 million last year. For PTT, the secured spot LNG import, and that's 5.9 million tons and that's 87 cargoes out of total number of 92 cargoes. The remaining was imported by someone else. So this would increase the energy security for Thailand. For PTTGC, we had Olefin 2 modification, COD already started Q3 of last year. So for Olefin 2 modification of GC can use propane more in the production, so that's feedstock flexibility and to increase the level of competitiveness of GC. For top, they have the CFP project prepared for first unit commissioning in order to produce Euro 5 standard products in Q1 of this year. For UFC, some phase is already up. For IRPC, ultra clean fuel project, this is also to increase the capacity and the quality of the refinery in order to be in line with the Euro 5 standard expected to be finished Q1 of this year. For new growth, renewable energy, last year, PTT Group adjusted our RE target of 2030 from 12 gigawatt to be 15 gigawatt. So it's according to the world trend. We see that renewable would be fully more than expected. For Avaada Energy, GPSC holds 42% through GRSC. Last year, they were awarded additional solar projects in India with total capacity of 4.8 gigawatt. So total capacity of 9.5 gigawatt. Equity capacity of GPSC is 4 gigawatt. Why India? India has quite a high capacity because India itself, they targeted their own target with renewable megawatt at 500,000 megawatt or 500 gigawatt. So that's quite a high number. So with that target, the infrastructure invested by the government of India would be facilitating the production of RE in India. Right now, they can do 180 gigawatt already. So with a target of 500 gigawatt, it's very practical. So when we invested there, we can reap the benefit from the infrastructure. Now to the EV value chain, NV Gotion, which is a JV between [ Euro Plus ], the subsidiary of Arun Plus 51% and Gotion by 49%. So NV Gotion, which started the production of battery for EVs, the [ model ] and the ESS, or the energy storage, including the battery for EVs so they can deliver lithium-ion battery starting with a 2 gigawatt hour per year to be expanding to 8 gigawatt hour per year in the future. This would be feed to Hozon Auto, which is the auto manufacturer of Neta. So Neta EV would use battery packs of NV Gotion. It's the battery lithium iron phosphate of 38 kilowatt and expected to deliver in the first quarter of this year. For Arun Plus, the established AC Energy solution to operate Cell-To-Pack Battery assembly using the technology of Cell-To-Pack to serve the expansion of EV in Thailand. COD target is by 2025 with 6 gigawatt hour per year. So Arun Plus has a plan to joint venture with experienced company in battery. So they are on the top list of the world. So for more detail, we would let you know afterwards. Arun Plus also establish Aionex, a JV company with KYMCO Group. Arun Plus hold 51% and KYMCO holds 49% for sale and the production of two-wheelers -- E-2-wheelers with the target of 5,000 vehicles. For Life Science, Lotus Pharmaceutical sold Lenalidomide, the leukemia medicine. They're already successful in the launching in the U.S., and they already marketed the expansion in the U.S. and South Korea. So this is quite a lucrative business for Lotus Pharmaceutical. For Nutrition, Plant & Bean factory, we already completed the construction and COD in January this year with a capacity of 3,000 tons per year. They can expand to the maximum capacity of 25,000 tons per year. So this is a JV and using the technology from the U.K. For the clean growth, PTT already exited the coal business in February last year. So this is according to PTT's strategy to move towards more green portfolio and to focus in oil and gas and future energy. For the last year, we get support in our reforestation. Last year, we got 68,000 rais in 25 provinces from the target of 75,000 rais. So it's according to our plan of clean growth, we would declare the Net Zero in 2025. And one of those strategies to reach that target is for the reforestation for PTT portion at 1 million rais. So we would do it gradually to reach our target in 2030. So up next, the key drivers. For Dubai price, average in Q4 is at $83.6 per barrel. Q-on-Q, it's down by 4%. But year-to-date, it's down by 15% from $96.3 per barrel to $82.1 per barrel. Like we all know, that's concern with the economic recession in the U.S. and China and also the inflation problem in OECD countries. So we see a slowdown in economics. For the Pool gas cost of PTT in Q4 is at $8.8 per million Btu. Q-on-Q, it's down by 0.6%. But if it's the average price of the whole year of last year, it's down by 15% from the previous year from $11.1 per million Btu to $9.5 per million Btu, mainly from decreased LNG import price, petchem price, olefins. HDPE Q-on-Q is down by 1%. Aromatics, PX Q-on-Q is down by 5%. For the average for the whole year of 2023 price, HDPE down by 13%, PX down by 6%. So this is according to the oil price and Naphtha price, which is down trend because of the economic slowdown. For the key performance, net income of PTT grew. In Q4, that's THB 32.7 billion, so that's up by 5%. For the year-to-date, net income increased by 23%. Net income equals to THB 112 billion. For the details of the performance, may I ask the CFO to give more details. Khun Pannalin, please?

Just now you heard the CEO talk about key drivers. Pricing factors have decreased across the board, definitely impacting PTT's performance. However, looking at net income Q-on-Q, year-on-year seem to improve. I will explain other factors that support PTT Group's bottom line starting with revenue. Revenue Q4 compared to Q3, it's up by 1%, slightly higher, mainly due to trading, which has gain on the back of higher product prices despite lower volumes. On the contrary, trading income more but E&P and oil business revenue increased from volumes. Whereas pricing was down, it's up, but different factors for gas business, less revenue mainly due to S&M. Because sales volume to power sector decreased seasonally, year-end and less demand, even though average selling price was higher due to pool gas. Gas separation plant, less income as well due to less demand because in Q4, some clients have done maintenance shut down according to plan, whereas average selling price is up in line with petrochem benchmark prices. P&R less due to less refining revenue on the back of lower prices. Sales volume is up. NBI, new business income, was down mainly GPSC both on volume and less selling price for both outputs and steam. EBITDA Q-on-Q less as well by about 38%, mainly because of P&R because refining business EBITDA is down because Q4 featured recognition of stock loss, but Q3, there's stock gain. So it impacted EBITDA of refining business. Besides market GIM also decreased from $11.3 in Q3 to $6.2 per barrel in Q4. And this affected EBITDA due to the spread of benzene, diesel and jet fuel versus lower pricing of crude oil and even crude premium, and these affects refining business. Now for Petrochem business, EBITDA is down also due to less sales volume. In olefins trading, EBITDA down to less profits and less sales volume. Oil business, EBITDA is down because gross profits from benzene and diesel was down and higher expenses. New business, less EBITDA from GPSC on the back of less SPP due to less FG and less sales of electricity and steam. Gas business is down also because of gas separation plans that decreased on the back of volume and higher unit cost on the back of Gulf of Thailand price. And gas pipeline higher cost because of maintenance -- pipeline maintenance costs. NGV in Q4 compared to Q3, more losses due to higher gas cost, even though average selling price is higher. For net income Q-on-Q increased by 5% despite less EBITDA. We will discuss details in the cash flows. Next slide. Now year-on-year performance 2023 versus 2022, starting with revenue, revenue down by about 7% across all businesses, mainly due to selling prices as the CEO mentioned. EBITDA decreased by 13%. The main one is P&R both refining and petrochem refining business down GRM from $10.7 to $7.5 per barrel, even though crude premium was down. And 2023, we had -- we recorded higher stock loss according to oil price trend. Petrochem is down, both Phenol and Olefin and special chemical products. PTTEP, less EBITDA both because of selling prices and volume higher unit cost due to G1 and G2 projects. Other businesses, EBITDA is also down because we have divested coal in Q1 last year. Whereas in 2022, we recognized core performance the whole year and therefore, EBITDA of other businesses decreased, higher EBITDA because of new business consisting of GPSC, higher EBITDA according to higher FG and less energy cost as well as higher energy sales. PTTGM, EBITDA higher. As CEO mentioned, pharmaceutical, we have delivered the products consistently in the U.S. market and therefore, boosting performance of GM and contributing to higher profits for PTT Group. Gas business, higher EBITDA, both because of S&M and JV due to higher gas costs and pool gas and PTT LNG had higher booking volume for terminals following COD of Terminal 2. Net income for 2023 compared to 2022 is 23% plus despite lower EBITDA, mainly attributable to 2023, we have less derivatives loss in the tune of THB 10 billion. If you remember 2022, PTT booked derivatives loss quite high, and then we adjusted our management approach in managing derivatives, resulting in less loss. And we gained from FX by about THB 17 billion because in 2023, baht appreciated significantly whereas baht was weak in 2022. And hence, higher FX gain. For income tax, THB 9 billion down, again, reflecting lower performance. Higher financing costs as PTT borrowed more and higher interest rates for floating rates resulting in higher finance costs. And in 2023, we had nonrecurring -- we have less nonrecurring items. So less by about THB 5 million. In 2023, we impaired more than big goodwill of PTTEP about THB 2.8 billion. And we wrote-off by about THB 1.2 billion. These are negative factors, whereas positive factors nonrecurring, we recognize gains from the sales of Cash-Maple of about THB 1.7 billion and recognizing gains of changing GC investing status and gains from GC sale. So these are nonrecurring items for 2023. Whereas 2022, recognition of nonrecurring items in lost terms of about THB 12 billion, quite high. For the next slide, let's take a look at waterfall of Q4. Net income was higher by about 5%. Details consisting of the margin was down, excluding stock gain loss. Margin of PTT Group decreased by about THB 16 billion across almost all business groups. As mentioned earlier, stock loss higher on the back of lower crude prices. In Q3, we had stock gain. OpEx Q4 higher by about THB 4.9 billion because of higher staffing costs. Depreciation increased by about THB 1.5 billion, mainly because of G1/61 and B8 of PTTEP according to sales and assets. Other income positive to net income in the tune of THB 6 billion because of recognition of nonrecurring items. As reported, impairment loss higher by about THB 4.5 billion because of the goodwill impairment of Mozambique of PTTEP. FX and derivatives gain improved by about THB 47 billion, consisting of higher FX gain '23 and derivatives gain up by about THB 22 billion. Interest, corporate income tax and NCI less by about THB 9.4 billion. So that's a positive factor to net income because of less tax and less NCI. And this slide shows key drivers of PTT's own business consisting of gas and trading. Let's start with gas key drivers. Starting with Q-on-Q, we mentioned a little bit earlier on that natural gas key driver, the sale volume Q-on-Q down by 7% as seen in the graph because of power plant sector. Power sector decreased by 12% on the back of overall less demand from the household sector seasonal factor. NGV less by 6% because of higher selling costs and less numbers of NGV costs as we try to disincentivize NGV use. And we encourage taxis to switch to EV. So in the future, this portion should be less. Industry clients, down by 2%, mainly in the [indiscernible] some clients have unplanned shutdown toward TM, even though industry clients have higher gas demand. Gas separation plans take in more by 2% according to higher Gulf of Thailand supply and less shutdowns than the previous quarter. Gas costs increased slightly by about 0.6% from 8.7% from higher gas costs, even though less spot LNG price. Separation plan, sales volume down by 11% due to less demand. Feed costs higher by 3% from $288 per ton to $298 in Q4, reflecting Gulf of Thailand gas price. Average selling price higher according to benchmark prices year-on-year. Natural gas -- pool gas price was 15% down due to less spot LNG price and higher import volume. Also Gulf of Thailand and Myanmar gas price decreased. Sales volume up 6% year-to-date due to power plant sector up by 12% due to higher demand because gas price is so much cheaper compared to the energy crisis period. And overall, power demand in Thailand increased on the back of improved economy. GSP volumes stabilized. So they did not really take in much more than before. NGV, less dispatch by 3% for industry clients, down by 4% as demand fell and products price fell and they produce less. Even though [ Cogen ] improved. For key drivers of gas separation plants, average selling price is down according to petrochem prices, and sales volume decreased by about 1%, mainly propane due to less client demand. Feed costs also down by 4%. So therefore, gas EBITDA Q-on-Q decreased and gas separation also decreased. Gas pipeline down also Q4, there's higher maintenance cost affecting EBITDA. NGV, higher loss. S&M increased slightly for recognition of higher shortfalls. Other business also decreased PTT NGD, for example, less selling volume, higher cost. LNG, better. Year-on-year EBITDA of gas is up by 8%. S&M better performance due to low ARPU gas average selling price, less higher volume, NGV better. GSP EBITDA less both on the price and volume and pipeline. EBITDA was down due to pricing adjustment in August 2022. So full impact recognized 2023, LNG increased and NGD less cost even though selling price increased. Now trading business, Q-on-Q EBITDA decreased significantly from plus [ THB 2,351 million ] to loss of [ THB 420 million ] due to a significant fall in margin from THB 0.07 in Q3 to THB 0.03 per liter in Q4 because of international trading and mark-to-market loss recognition of inventories. Sales volume down 18%, resulting in EBITDA of trading in Q4 decrease. And year-on-year, EBITDA increased by 9% due to 48% increase in selling volumes from crude and LNG imports. That increase to meet domestic demand and the out-out trading business also increased. However, looking at margins, it's down 20% from THB 0.10 to THB 0.08 per liter. Now let's take a look at financial position. If I look at the total asset, it's a little bit increased by 1%. Cash and short-term investments increased by THB 97 billion, while the AR and other current assets is down by THB 50 billion. At the end of last year, the oil fund of PTT at about THB 7 billion. So the figure is down to the normal operation. And for the assets for sales, it's down because we divested core businesses in 2023. For the noncurrent asset, it's down by THB 38 billion, mainly from the reclassification of the asset of PTTEP. So that's become PPE. So mainly, it's with PTTEP. PP&E is increased by THB 42 billion according to the reclassification of the items and also for the construction of Thai Oil. Its increased so that's why PP&E increased. To the group of liabilities, AP and other liabilities is down by THB 14 billion, mainly from the decrease of derivatives and AP. Interest-bearing debt is down by THB 32 billion. As we repay our loan, the long-term loan of PTT Group and also the liabilities loan, that's also down. For the equity -- for the noncontrolling interest, it's increased by THB 32 billion. So that's the profit from our subsidiary. To the right, the financial ratio, you would see that net debt-to-EBITDA and net debt to equity, it's improved and in the policy. For the cash flow, you can see that this cash flow at the end of 2023, starting from the beginning, we have the cash of THB 340 billion. We have the operating figure, that's THB 382 billion, and we have the investing, which is the outflow from the investment in PTT, TOP and PTTGC, so that's minus THB 161 billion. For the financing category, that's outflow of THB 142 billion, mainly from dividend payment, payment of financing costs and interest. So at the end of the cycle, it ended at THB 449 billion. Thank you.

Now we are coming to the PTT Group guidance starting from the world economic outlook. In 2024, GDP is expected to be 3.1%, which is closed down from the previous year. So for the increase of interest policy, from all of the -- almost all of the countries is still there. So it would affect the world economic. In China, still there is the slowdown in the real estate sector. For the geopolitics, we still have the problem of the war from -- between Russia and Ukraine and the war between Israel and Hamas Group. Anyway, we expect that the interest hike would be about to end. And for the economic and fiscal measures, it would be relaxed for the second half of this year. For the Thai economic, we expect it to grow by 4.4%. For the last year, it's expanded by 1.9%, which is lower than expected. So we just think that for this year, the Thai government should have some kind of measures to stimulate economy. For Thai tourism, it would be stimulated more this year for the export and the investment from the private sector, it would be expanding this year. BOI just declared that they already approved many investment projects, probably the highest number this year. Now to the LNG price, Henry Hub 2024, we expect that it would be a little bit down as we expected that the U.S. would produce gas more. For the Asian spot LNG, JKM, this year, it would be down by 31% and to have the average price at about $9 to $10 per million Btu because the consumption would be less as we have more production from the wind farm and RE in Europe. Still, the measures from the European Commission, they would extend the gas consumption reduction that would be extended from 31st of March last year to this year. Still, the reserve of natural gas in Europe and Asia is still high because the weather is not so cold. So we have to keep a look at this coming March whether there would be cold snap. If not, then the situation would be quite safe. For Dubai oil price, this year, we expect that it would be down by 4% to be around $74 to $84 per barrel. The demand still is pressured with the concern on economic slowdown. For the supply from OPEC, it's higher. And at this price, it is still considerably good. For the production of non-OPEC countries, it would be more, especially from the U.S., Canada. For the tension in the Middle East and also for the supply, which is quite tightened from the OPEC Plus, this would help maintain the price of oil. For the fiscal measures, all the central banks from almost all over the world and in the U.S., they would relax the interest policy measures. For fuel oil, the price would be a little bit down in line with Dubai oil and that's about 1% to 2%. Singapore GRM this year, it would be down a little bit by 12% to be at around $5.5 to $6.5 per barrel. For the refined products, supply is pressured with more new startups, especially the start-up in Nigeria with the total capacity of 650,000 barrel per day. And with the concern of economic slowdown, that would bring down the market GRM. For the petchem price, this year is going to be quite challenged for us as the demand would be picked up but very gradually, while new supply would come in into the market. Anyway, we just hope that for the second half of this year, economy would pick up. For the price, HDPE, it's around $990 to $1,090. PP would be up by about 2% to be around $975 to $1,075. PX down by 2% to be around $965 to $1,065. Benzene down by 1% to be around $840 to $940. Now to the business outlook of PTT Group this year. For the PTTEP, we just hope that the volume would be increased from G1 to be at 800 million square cubic foot and PTTEP still can maintain their competitive unit cost and that's around $28 to $29 per barrel. For the average selling price, we expect that it would be a downtrend according to the price of G1/61. And also for the crude oil price, we just hope that -- we just think that it would be downtrend. For the gas business, the consumption would be more. We can produce more from the Gulf Gas. Now for the GSP's new rate, it can increase to more than 85% in this year, which is in line with the increased supply from Gulf Gas. For the gas cost, it would be quite challenging after the single pool price adjustment. We expect that spot LNG this year would be down because we have more gas from the Gulf and also spot LNG price is downtrend. So this would help us see that a single -- the effect from the adjustment of single pool price would not be much. Downtrend oil, we would see the increase in demand for refinery and petchem. P&R refinery, it would be pressured from softened economy and softened Singapore GRM. Lower utilization rate, it would be down with the planned shutdown. Petchem product spreads would be downtrend. For aromatics, for olefin, so there's a challenge with the product spread. It would be the same, but we have to monitor quite closely. For power business, GPSC domestic electricity consumption would be recovered. For the margin, it would be better because of the downward trend of fee cost. When we have the single full price PTT would be affected because the cost of GSP would be higher. But for the power business of PTT, it would be better because the pool gas cost would be lower. For the future energy, that would be the expansion of renewable energy, as I previously explained through GPSC, the expansion of EV value chain. And for other business, it would be coming into our pipeline continuously. For beyond business, we would recognize higher contribution from upcoming projects like the plant-based protein, which is under our nutrition category and also Lotus, we have quite a good momentum for more expansion and growth. We are sitting in the Board and we send our people into the management. And we see that they have more medicine to be launched as the market fits. For the upcoming projects this year, for the pipeline #5, Phase 1 and 3 already completed. Phase 2, it's under construction, to be finished and up in first half of this year. For GSP #7 to replace GSP #1, which is more than 30 years old. They have the capacity, which is quite similar to the old one at 460 million square cubic feet per day. GSP 7 would be replacing GSP 1, the margin unit would be better and also to cut down on the emission because it's quite new with newer technology. We expect it to be -- to have the COD within this year. For ultra clean fuel, which is belonged to IRPC, COD is expected by Q1 of this year. CFP, they would be up phase by phase from the first quarter of this year and then the next phase would be followed up from this year till next year. The capacity -- full capacity would be increasing from 270,000 barrel per day to 400,000 barrel per day. So this would help in the number of product yield when fuel oil price is not so good, then they would have leased fuel oil as possible, but we would enhance the capacity of a more higher price like diesel oil and jet oil. So they can receive the heavy crude more and heavy crude is less pricey than the light crude oil. For EV value chain Cell-To-Pack battery production plant, this one use CATL technology, which is high technology. So we don't need to pack it in the model. We would cut down the redundancy of production and the production costs with the capacity of 6,000 megawatt hour and COD is next year. For the EV manufacturing plant in Thailand, we talk to the clients. And the completion is very, very near. But according to the plan, COD is in 2025, which is next year. With the initial capacity of 50,000 cars per year for renewable, India was awarded quite a bigger portion of megawatt. And also, we have the offshore wind farm in Taiwan. Now we are installing the WTG. COD is first half of this year. For the maintenance schedule in this year, according to the slide, we would have the turnaround of GSP #1, #5, #6. GC, we have Ole 2/2, that's major turnaround of about 60 days. And PE Plants turnaround, that's around 70 days. So this is all for my part. Now the Q&A, please. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]