Realty Income Corporation (O) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

So welcome to the Realty Income presentation. Thank you for being here. With me all the way to the left is Kelsey Mueller, she is VP in Investor Relations for Realty Income; Brad Heffern, who is an analyst and covers net lease and covers us from RBC. I'm Sumit Roy, the CEO and President of Realty Income. And to my right is Steve Bakke, who is SVP in Capital Markets. So with that -- the light did come on, right? I guess I front-ran that. So with that, I'll just give a few comments, and then I'll have Brad facilitate the Q&A session. I'd also like to remind you that certain comments I'm about to make may be forward-looking. Please refer to our SEC filings for a discussion of the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially. At Realty Income, our platform is built to deliver durable income and growth, a combination, we believe, is especially valuable in today's environment, where capital markets remain dynamic, inflation is proving sticky and high-quality predictable income is increasingly scarce. Over the past 30 years as a public company, we've executed consistently through all types of market cycles, delivering an average total operational return of 11%, which combines our AFFO per share growth and our dividend yield. Notably, this annual return has never dipped below 5% over that time frame. These results benefit from an average 6% dividend yield, aided by 110 consecutive quarters of dividend increases, equating to a 4.3% compound annual growth rate. Overall, these outcomes are a testament to the historical resiliency and low volatility of our operating model. This level of consistency is the design of our business model targeted at delivering predictable cash flows with the flexibility to allocate investments across geographies, verticals and capital structures based on where we see the most attractive risk-adjusted returns. To that end, our recent first quarter results shines the light on the power of our platform. First, we deployed $1.4 billion of investment volume in the quarter, which included 65% stemming from Europe. And second, 65% of our global portfolio comes from U.S. retail, consisting of high-quality tenants. In our view, this insulates our business model from potential tariff impacts. This performance further benefits from the breadth and maturity of our platform, which we've honed and developed over our 56-year operating history. The scale and diversification of our portfolio, supported by our talented teams and data analytics capabilities underpin consistently high occupancy, low bad debt expense and durable cash flow across market conditions. Importantly, we are continuing to enhance the value of our platform by solving for more of our clients' needs, whether this be through repeat transactions, development partnerships or credit-based solutions. Looking ahead, we believe our track record and distinct advantages positions us well to meet the increasing demand for consistent and growing income. In short, we are confident in our ability to navigate the evolving macro backdrop and to continue delivering reliable income and growth over time. Brad, with that, I'll turn it over to you.

So Realty Income often talks about the optionality embedded in the platform. From your perspective, how does that strategic flexibility across sectors, geographies, capital solutions enhance the company's ability to drive long-term value, especially given we're in such an uncertain environment?

So embedded in your question was part of the answer is the fact that we are looking for the best risk-adjusted returns. And the fact that we are not tied to any one particular sector, we are not just retail, we happen to be in industrial, we happen to be in data centers, we happen to be in gaming. We're not tied to one geography. It's not just the U.S., though this is where we started. We were founded here in 1969, and we have now grown into 8 other countries, including the U.K., and 6 other countries -- 7 other -- 6 other countries in Western Europe. And we have also expanded our ability to invest across the balance sheet. So not only do we do sale leasebacks, which is the traditional way of how we've grown this business, but we do development funding, we do credit investments for clients that we have a long-term positive view on, where it makes sense. And all of these various different avenues of growth that we have created for us allows us to go where the puck is, go where the value is. And based on what you saw, we delivered in the first quarter, 65% of where we invested that $1.4 billion was in Europe. And that's because that's where we saw the value. That's the reason why we believe that we have a platform that is very uniquely positioned to take advantage of this -- the environment that we are faced with today. Along with that, I'll say that there are certain things that we've developed within the platform that is very unique to us. We have a predictive analytics tool that is utilized across the spectrum of everything that we do in the business from sourcing to underwriting, to helping us make asset management disposition -- decisions, along with disposition decisions and is very much part and parcel of how we negotiate leases, et cetera with our clients because of the information and value that it generates for us in terms of what is the expectation of that particular location to continue to generate favorable outcomes for the operator. And by the way, these models are very much geared by the industry that they happen to be in. So a grocery operator is going to have a very different algorithm than somebody that's a discount store operator or a convenience store operator. So these models have been honed over the last 6 years to give us a very high level of predictability in terms of who's going to stay and who's not going to stay. And so when you have that level of intelligence built into the platform, we are able to generate the kind of results that we've been able to generate, i.e., north of 105% in re-leasing spreads with very little capital involved in being able to attract those renewals and re-leases. That's the beauty of this platform. And that's what allows us to generate the total operating returns that we've talked about generating.

Okay. You brought up Europe a couple of times now, certainly part of the breadth of the platform, and it was the majority of the investment volumes in the first quarter. Can you just talk about how you're thinking about the opportunity in the U.K. and in Continental Europe going forward?

Yes. Just a brief history lesson in the U.K., and it will put it in context in terms of why we feel like Europe is such a fertile ground for additional growth for us. In 2019, April 1, we had zero investments outside of the U.S. We did our first sale leaseback with Sainsbury's, #2 grocer in the U.K. It was a $0.5 billion deal, and that's how we got into the net lease business in the U.K. Fast forward to today, we have a $10 billion investment in just the U.K. itself. And we've been able to do that in a very short duration. And the reason why is the portability of our ratings, the strength of our balance sheet, the kind of underwriting we do which is equal parts, real estate and credit; and being able to lean in when others are perhaps taking a different bet. Think about what was happening in 2019 in the U.K. Brexit was in full flow. They were going to leave the EU. How is that going to impact? Nobody wanted to invest in retail, and we chose to lean in. And the transactions that we have done in the U.K. and how we established our name is what's allowed us to be very successful as we have been. And we believe that same blueprint is allowing us to make headway in Europe. Today, our European investment is circa $2 billion, but that's where we are seeing a lot of growth.

You've always been interested in finding new verticals, and maybe people haven't examined before going all the way back to the wine investment, 10-plus years ago. How are you thinking about your newer verticals like data centers, gaming? And then, are there any others that you would call out?

Yes. Data centers is obviously an area of interest across the spectrum. But I just want to be very precise around where we are choosing to play. A lot of the demand that we see in data centers is with hyperscalers, who want to enter into 15-, 20-year leases. The lease tends to be a lot more net leasable, i.e., most of the responsibilities of maintaining that particular asset, the property taxes as well as the insurance, all resides with the client. That's a model that appeals to us. Especially given the growth drivers in this industry with cloud computing and AI and machine learning, et cetera, requiring that level of computing, we believe that this is a natural area for us to continue to grow into. But we are very specific about defining the sandbox within the data center space that we want to play in. And it's along the lines of what I've just described. But in addition to that, it is also making sure that we are partnering with the right operators. Our first deal that we did, we partnered with Digital Realty, a very well-established name, where they brought in certain benefits, we brought in certain benefits, i.e., our long-term capital hold. It's the same mantra we've used to make our second investment, which was a credit investment we made with an operator, very well established in a facility in Virginia with one of the top hyperscalers on a very, very long-term contract. And the goal here is through this particular investment to get to the equity of owning these real estates. So we just think that this is a growing area. The product lends itself to net lease investing. And given the duration of our investment cycle, we believe we have a natural house for some of these investments. But we are going to be very selective. In terms of gaming, it is much more episodic, I would say. We've made two investments, where we own 100% of the Encore Boston Harbor, which is obviously operated by Wynn, one of the two premier operators. And then the second investment we did was with Blackstone in Bellagio, where we own 22% of the business of the real estate there. And we continue to look in that particular area. But like I said, we are very selective in terms of who we want to partner with and what investments we want to make on the gaming side.

Okay. Can you provide an update on tenant credit trends? How you're thinking about bad debt expense? And then are you seeing any exposure impact from tariffs or shifts in trade policy?

So this is -- again, we were very deliberate in how we constructed our retail portfolio here in the U.S. And if you look across the names that we have in our top 20, which by the way, we post on a quarterly basis; it will give you the confidence that a lot of these retailers have the ability to either absorb the cost of the tariffs or pass-through a majority of these costs if and when they ever get implemented. So we feel very good about the environment that we find ourselves in. Yes, it is very volatile. Yes, it will impact discretionary income with the consumer base. But I believe that we have created a portfolio that can withstand some of these potential headwinds in the near term. And it's basically proven out to be the case. If you look at our bad debt expense, it has never been more than -- on average, it's been 40 basis points. And though we have forecasted a slightly higher number than that for this year, we feel very good about being able to absorb the uncertainty that exists. There were three names that we discussed during our first quarter call, it was At Home, Zips and Party City. Again, these are very nominal exposures, all in basis points in terms of our exposure to these names. Zips has already resolved. We got 100% of our assets, were assumed through the BK process they've emerged. We had a circa 94% recapture rate. So of the three names that we were tracking once being resolved, and that was the biggest name that we had in the portfolio. So we feel very good about these other two names and the ability to continue to operate and keep that bad debt expense as low as it has been.

Okay. We've obviously been talking about the value of the platform. You recently announced the move into private capital. Can you give us an update on where that stands today and how you're thinking about that from a strategic and financial standpoint?

Good question, Brad. This is obviously a very big focus for us. We've been giving you quarterly updates. It's not really a whole lot more to add than what I shared a few weeks ago during our first quarter earnings. We are well underway. The data room is open, the conversations we are having is very promising. And this is all despite the backdrop of capital raising, not being as frothy and as [ rebicious ] as it has been in the past. This again goes back to the sponsorship that we bring to the table and the desire by the capital sources to want to align with somebody like us and take advantage of the kind of investments that we make. So, so far, so good. And during our second quarter earnings, we'll give you a further update.

Can you talk some about the strategic rationale for the push into private capital?

Yes, that's a great question. It goes back to why are we doing this. Our platform is built to invest circa $20 billion a year. We've done it 2 years out of the last 5. If you look at what we did in 2021, it was circa $23 billion. What we did in 2024 in terms of announced transactions and completed transactions, it was almost $20 billion. And today, we've announced that we are going to do $4.5 billion this year. So this is a very scaled platform, ready to make investments. And when you have disruptions in the capital markets like the ones that we are seeing where our cost of capital is not where it has historically been, then having an alternative source of capital becomes very important for us. The way we think about private capital is it's going to be a complementary to our public shareholders. There is plenty of opportunities. And I mentioned this in my fourth quarter call when we were talking about private capital that we had foregone about $2 billion of transactions. And the only reason for that was the first year spreads were not there. And so I couldn't make the investment on balance sheet. But in terms of IRR, in terms of total return profile, in terms of risk, these are transactions we should have done, had we the cost of capital. This is where private capital comes in, in a very big way. And to be -- to fully monetize our platform, to fully utilize the scale that we've developed, we need additional sources of capital. And for us, the private capital open-ended, perpetual life, again, is a perfect conduit to provide that complementary form of capital. And that's why we are very excited about it. And we hope that, that channel does become a very large component of how we do business going forward, which, by the way, the benefits of doing that accrues to our public shareholders. All of the management fees helps us generate additional sources of income without having to lean on public sources of equity to generate that income stream. So every investment that the public equity is going to make as part of the co-investment into these funds will be further leveraged by the management fee structure that we have. So we're very excited about being able to do this.

You mentioned valuation. Obviously, O has the long track record of steady returns, low volatility. But at the same time, the valuation is certainly below where it has traded in the past. How do you see the company fitting into people's portfolios? Is there a chance that maybe a more income-oriented investor might be more interested now? And then what could deliver re-rating over time?

Yes. For us, I think it's a very strange time in terms of look at what's happening with the tenure, where is the tenure going to settle out. We have become a proxy for the tenure. But what I continue to tell our investor base is, yes, we have the predictability of a bond-like investment, but a growth like an equity investment. So you are able to get bond-like predictability with growth, that requires and warrants a much higher valuation than we -- than what we currently have. And for me, it's just a matter of time. The profile that we've generated, the history of that profile that we've delivered over the last 30 years as a public entity is there for everyone to see. We just posted earlier today a presentation, where we're putting the S&P 500 REITs and us side-by-side over a 1-year, 3-year, 5-year time frame and showing how much more consistent we've been in terms of total operational return than that particular group, yet they trade at a 3 turn multiple higher than we do. And even if you compare it to the historical multiples, we are trading off of where we've historically traded. And so this is just a matter of time, I believe, where we will get re-rated. But what we have to do is we have to go after a pocket of capital that has close to $44 trillion, which is this income-oriented investors that's looking for the profile of investments that we produce day in, day out. So how do we tap into that? There's about $3 trillion in Europe that is also looking for that dependable income stream that grows over time. That's the pockets of capital. Part of it, we are going to get through the fund business. But the other part, we hope we'll get to invest in our public security.

Okay. That's all I had in terms of prepared questions. Any questions from the audience?

It's $4.5 billion. I'm being corrected by Kelsey. 4.0 billion for 2025 investment volume.

One of the things I know you all value is the fact that you are a dividend aristocrat and have the consistency of the dividend growth over 30-plus years. How does that factor into the decision-making when it comes to how you all manage your business, making sure that, that dividend can continue to grow without overextending yourselves financially?

That's a great question, Rob. I mean if you look at our payout ratio, it's in the mid-70s. And we are a dividend aristocrat by design. We -- when we first started investing, 100% of our shares were held by retail investors like you and I. And when we went public, I think, 10 years into being a public company, we were still 100% retail owned, which is saying something. So our DNA and obviously, we were -- prior to going public, 25 years, we were a private company. And we came up with this concept, our founders did, of making sure that the dividends were being paid out on a monthly basis because we felt like our investors had expenses on a monthly basis. So when their investments in us are making a particular return, that should be distributed on a monthly basis. So we trademarked the name the monthly dividend company. So our entire ethos, net lease investing is predicated on generating dividends. And the fact that we've been able to grow the dividends 110 consecutive quarters, so you can do the math, north of 30 years, every quarter, regardless of what is happening in the market; is a testament to the platform we've built, the type of personnel that supports that platform we have and the decisions we've made around where do we want to invest capital that creates this durability, this long-term duration that grows over time. All of that has been done by design. And so it's taken us -- in order to be part of the Dividend Aristocrats Index, you have to have grown your dividend 25 consecutive years. We've done it north of 30. So when you take so much time to become part of something you don't ever want to lose it. And the confidence you should get is we are an A-, A3-rated balance sheet. So are we going to suddenly start playing the leverage game to generate those returns? No, we are not because we weren't -- we didn't start off as an A-, A3 credit rating. We started off as sub-investment grade, became investment grade, and now we are in a A-, A3-rated company. So it's been a very long journey for us, but one that we know we're keeping our eye on the ball, and it's the retail investors that have allowed us to be as successful as we have been. And while we've done that, we've been able to attract institutional capital into a business where we say this level of predictability in terms of total operating return should have a place in one's portfolio.

Anyone else?

Can you talk about how you've been able to make -- continue to make sustainability progress, just given the challenges in that business model?

It's having great relationships. You're absolutely right, given the type of leases that we have in place, it's very difficult to impose rules on how a particular real estate should be run. That's largely done by the tenants, by our clients. But having great relationships, knowing that we are all trying to do the right thing, when you control as many assets as we do of particular clients, the kind of conversations we can have is very different when you're a landlord that controls one asset with one particular client. So we've been able to influence our client base. But I wouldn't even use the word influence. It's like get them to share information with us because everybody has been on this journey together. And I think we are now up to over 50% of our clients who are sharing their information about their carbon footprint, et cetera, with us. And that number will continue to grow. And in buildings that we do control 100%, i.e., our headquarter buildings in San Diego; you should come and take a look. I mean, as soon as you walk in there, you'll know that we are very focused on our carbon footprint, et cetera. So that hasn't changed.

Any other questions? Please.

[indiscernible]

Yes. For us, we are total return-focused investors. And when you are making an investment, you're figuring out what is the cost of capital that you're using to make that investment? What is the return profile? What is the duration of that investment profile? And if it meets those investment hurdles, we are agnostic as to whether it comes from Europe or from U.S. or from the U.K., et cetera. We are agnostic as to the asset type that it's -- that these returns are being generated from. And it just so happens today that in Europe, there's less competition, we have even cheaper forms of capital. The tenure, that bond issuance that we can do in Europe is 130, 140 basis points inside of what we can issue here in the U.S. So obviously, the cost of capital is more attractive. And the fact that despite the fact that Europe is in the early stages of sale leaseback becoming mainstream, we are able to take advantage of the product that is available, given the presence that we've created in the U.K., the scale that we've created in the U.K. and being able to leverage that U.K. to make investments in Europe. So all of that is coming together for us at this point in time in making more investments in Europe than here in the U.S. Good question.

Any other questions? All right. Thank you very much.

Thank you.