Repligen Corporation (RGEN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
November 19, 2020
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Jacob Johnson
analystAll right. Good morning. Unless you're on the East Coast, then I guess it's good afternoon. Welcome today for the Stephens conference. I'm Jacob Johnson, life science tools and diagnostics analyst. As always, very excited to be joined by Repligen. Today, we've got CEO, Tony Hunt; CFO, Jon Snodgres; Global Head of IR, Sondra Newman; and Manager of IR, Steve Chehames. Before we get started, if you would like to submit a question during the presentation, there's a button on the top left of your screen where you could submit questions. You can also e-mail me at jacob.johnson@stephens.com. With that out of the way, Tony, maybe to kick things off, if you want to spend a couple of minutes giving us an update on all of the exciting things going on at Repligen right now.
Anthony Hunt
executiveYes. Thanks, Jacob. And maybe as a kickoff on this, obviously, everybody knows, and they've heard us, over the last few weeks, talk about our overall earnings where we just came off a very strong third quarter for the company with $94 million in revenue, up 31% year-on-year. Obviously, benefiting from all the activity going on in COVID, our direct product or orders were up 100% in the quarter, so with half of that coming from COVID programs, the other 50% coming from non-COVID programs. In general, we've executed across the board. We've been able to do 3 deals now in 2020, all focused on the system side of our portfolio, really trying to double down in terms of what we have for our systems, for our filtration products, chromatography products. We've also done some vertical integration with our -- with fluid management. So the EMT, NMS deals definitely give us further supply chain strength and also gives us a stronger portfolio in what we call fluid management. Our deal from 2019 and C Technologies has had a really good year. We were able to build out the commercial organization. We've been able to really do a nice job this year of executing on bringing new accounts into the fold, expanding the applications for the C Technologies portfolio into gene therapy and a little bit into COVID as well. So that's gone very well. The other initiatives this year has been continued traction in gene therapy. We formed a core business development team that's really worked with the sales force. We expect gene therapy for the year to be up over 30%. And then finally, we've been working on new products, right? And so we've been able to get our TFDF technology out at the beginning of the year. That's gone well. We've got next-generation FlowVPE launching at the end of the year. Our new controllers for ATF are out. We've got some ligands coming through. We did a nice job with Navigo on getting a spike protein ligand done for COVID. So I think we're really well positioned for the future. And I'd say the last piece of the story for this year has been around our investments in capacity. So we look at capacity in a number of ways. We look at it from a people point of view where we've increased the number of employees in Repligen by 30%. Obviously, some of that's coming from M&A. We've done a really nice job. Jon has led the way on this in terms of the SAP Phase II implementation, really important that we got that done. That's gone well. And then, obviously, we're adding in building out physical capacity. Last year, it was all about OPUS and ATF. This year is more around our filtration portfolio. We'd like to be in a position where we can titrate people in as opposed to building large facilities. So that's kind of the goal. As I said, I think we're really nicely positioned heading out of 2020 into 2021 and ahead of our long-term goals that we set back in the 2016 time frame, as you know.
Jacob Johnson
analystPerfect. A lot of things to follow up on there, but let's maybe start with COVID-19. Can you just walk through where you're seeing demand for COVID-19 vaccine and therapeutic work within your portfolio of products. I think it's largely filtration but also chromatography and proteins, but if you could just unpack that a little bit.
Anthony Hunt
executiveYes. So maybe what we'll do -- maybe as the year has evolved, I think when we started off in Q2, our proteins business definitely benefited mainly because I think customers started to -- on the Protein A resin side, which has a -- which flows all the way through to our ligands business, people started to increase their inventory levels because of just concern on product availability in the long term. And then that business has also continued to do well as the therapeutic molecules begin to come through for Phase I, Phase II, Phase III. So that's definitely the driver on the protein side. You're right about our filtration business being probably the one part of our portfolio that has benefited the most from COVID. And that's across the board. It's our, call it, fiber business. It's our flat sheet cassette. It's our systems. And it's been pretty consistent really Q2, Q3, Q4. And then we saw in the middle of Q3 that customers started to ramp up on prepacked columns. We haven't seen that. Prior to that, we had definitely had some orders for prepacked columns for COVID, but we definitely saw a significant uptick in activity around prepacked columns starting mid-summer, mid-August, heading into September. That's kind of maintained over the last few months. So most of what we're working on is vaccine related. Definitely, activity in the therapeutics as well. But I would say the majority of our projected $35 million for the year will probably be related to vaccines. And obviously, that includes some of the protein stuff as well that's from our proteins business.
Jacob Johnson
analystGot it. I mean I think maybe the logical follow-up to that is we've had some questions about which of these vaccine programs you're tied to, especially, I think, as we're starting to see data read out on these. I know you don't talk specifically around customers or programs, so maybe I'll ask it this way, given what you're seeing in terms of COVID-19 demand, is it fair to say you're working with a variety of customers on both therapeutics and vaccines right now?
Anthony Hunt
executiveYes, absolutely. And the majority of our customers are clearly on the vaccine side that were involved in COVID. And we are working on mRNA protein and viral vector-based vaccines. So as those modalities do well, it's a positive for Repligen. We're not in every single one of them, but we are working with a number of players in this space. So -- but we expect that next year our COVID revenue will come from companies that are still scaling to companies that will come through and get commercial approvals.
Jacob Johnson
analystGot it. Maybe a follow-up on that last comment, just on COVID-19, at a high level, where do you think customers are in the process of scaling manufacturing? It seems like it's early innings. And if we get some of these approved, then there's an additional ramp from here. But as always, I'd be interested in your perspective on that, Tony.
Anthony Hunt
executiveNo, I think that's the right perspective that you have. I think it's early innings. People are clearly scaling and ramping, and people are assuming success. But depending on how many companies have therapeutics for COVID or have vaccines for COVID will determine a little bit of the demand profile that those companies will have to manufacture against. So we have 2 players who are in the vaccine space that's going to create a very different demand dynamic for Pfizer and Moderna versus if there are 6 or 8 or 10 companies who are producing vaccines. So I think we'll know a lot more through the first quarter of next year. And I think for Repligen, when we get to our earnings call at the end of February, we'll have a lot more insight into what 2021 could look like.
Jacob Johnson
analystMaybe just one quick follow-up on that. I mean I think -- I've gotten the question what does it mean -- what does the Pfizer and Moderna data mean for activity for others? My sense is nobody is slowing down activity right now but would be interested if you have any thoughts on that.
Anthony Hunt
executiveNo, we haven't -- the players we're working with are all forging ahead, right? And I think if you're already committed to a Phase II or Phase III, you're not going to stop it because somebody else is getting to potentially emergency use, right? I think companies are moving forward. They want to see what their vaccine or therapeutic program is going to yield. So that's why I said -- I think when you get to the end of Q1 next year, I think the playing field will be a little clearer.
Jacob Johnson
analystOkay. That's interesting. So when you reported third quarter earnings a couple of weeks ago, you talked about 100% order growth in your direct product portfolio. Can you just talk about the lead times for these orders? And maybe how we should think about those orders translating to revenues over the next, I guess, several quarters probably?
Anthony Hunt
executiveYes. I think if you went back a couple of years ago, we would typically, in a quarter, your -- by the time you hit the middle of a quarter, your -- the sales team is working to get all the orders for the following quarters. So they're beginning to pull those into our sort of order bucket. What's changed this year is just the whole dynamics of COVID, right? And we've seen a step function change on the order side since -- as Q2 was kind of winding down, it's really ramped up in Q3. And so that -- and you're right, 100% order growth for our direct products, I think 80% for our total portfolio in Q3. In terms of timing, I mean there are orders that are going out into -- clearly, in Q1 and some even in Q2. So there's a little bit of customers. Depending on whether you're a COVID customer or a non-COVID customer, I think there's a clear demand cycle for the COVID customers. They know what they need, and they know what they need by when. For the non-COVID customers, I think there's a little bit of fear that all the demand is going to get sucked up and there's nothing left for anyone else, right? And I'm talking about the bioprocessing industry in general; or the lead times go out. So I think people are ordering a little further out than they normally would. It's not stockpiling. I think they're just placing orders knowing that, hey, if we need this at the end of Q1, why shouldn't we place the order now. So there's definitely some of that going on as well.
Jacob Johnson
analystGot it. And then with all of that demand, you mentioned adding capacity. Can you just remind us where capacity stands today? And then as you look out the next couple of years, where do you think the key areas are for adding additional capacity?
Anthony Hunt
executiveYes. So it's a journey, honestly. We'd like to be in a position where we've built a lot of the physical capacity that we need to build for our product lines and really more -- become a little bit more focused on a people titration issue rather than, oh, we got to build a brand new plant to be able to double or triple the capacity of our product line. So we started that journey, honestly, well over a year ago, 1.5 years ago. And as we saw the ramp-up in prepacked columns, we knew what we needed to do there. So we focused last year on doubling down in our Waltham facility and getting a lot more capacity in place for our prepacked columns. We're continuing that journey this year, but it won't come online until next year to have a European facility for prepacked columns. So I think we've done a good job there. We did a very similar exercise for our ATF single-use product line last year and built -- we transferred it out of Waltham, moved it into our Marlborough facility where had more space. And so we've got a lot of the physical capacity there. This year, we just took the -- a lease on another 64,000 square feet. That's right -- adjacent to the 64,000 that we have right now in Marlborough. So that gives us a much bigger footprint, frees up -- it'll free up space next year to continue to expand our systems portfolio. It will allow us to expand ATF. It will allow us to expand a lot of our filtration product line. So all of that is really positive. We're -- on the other filtration products out in Rancho, we're continuing to -- we have started last year to build out excess -- not excess capacity but built out more capacity. That's kind of executing right now, but we're actually increasing what we want to do in our hollow fiber portfolio. Again, that's going to take probably until the middle of next year for us to take the -- get the physical capacity and equipment in place that we need. And then from there on, it becomes sort of a people -- how many people do you add and when do you add. And we get asked a question a lot about are you -- if you ramp too fast, is that something that you're going to be concerned about down the road if COVID happens to be a 9-month, 12-month spike. And I think the answer to it is we're not. We just think that the industry is really growing at a good rate. And there's -- even if we build capacity and we have -- it takes us a few years more to fill that capacity, we don't see that as a bad thing because we think the industry is doing really well.
Jacob Johnson
analystYes. I want to get onto some non-COVID stuff at some point because, to your point, Tony, there's a bunch of interesting things going on outside of COVID. But maybe one last one on COVID, you've got this ligand with Navigo for COVID-19. I think this is probably an opportunity maybe in next-generation vaccines rather than as first wave. Can you just comment on that?
Anthony Hunt
executiveYes. That's exactly right. I mean we're in the middle right now of scaling that ligand and making the resin, and so it's going to take until -- we expect to have that available in Q1. It's unlikely it's going to get into anything that's going on right now in COVID vaccines that are protein-based. But next-generation versions, we expect there will be some interest. So not a huge amount, it's not a lot of revenue next year, but I think in future years, it's a great product to have because I think it's going to make a difference.
Jacob Johnson
analystAll right. So we've done COVID, maybe talk to me about some more interesting things. Your opportunity for COVID is interesting. Tony, you've done 3 deals this year: EMT, NMS and ARTeSYN. Can you just maybe just set the table, talk through those deals and what they brought to Repligen?
Anthony Hunt
executiveYes. So in general, we really looked at our strategy. I would say, it really evolved from what we did with Spectrum, right? So once we did the Spectrum deal, we saw what they were doing in terms of systems and consumables. And as we built a whole business last year around the people that we needed to add in to drive the business, and we built out our manufacturing capabilities in Marlborough, all of that has been very positive. But we also realized that we were only really addressing the hollow fiber component of what we were doing. And so as we sort of started off 2020, we had kind of a game plan, could we execute on the ARTeSYN deal because we've been working on it for a little while. If we could, that would give us systems in both filtration -- downstream filtration. It would will give us systems in chromatography. And then by doing the EMT, NMS deals, we were able to get the fluid management piece. And people don't really think about consumables in the same way. If I say consumable to you, you would say, oh, is it resin or is it a filter. And people forget about the fact that what we call ProConnex or fluid management is also a consumable. And so what ARTeSYN brings to the table is single-use filtration and chromatography systems. So not stainless steel piping but silicon tubing is the piping. And now we have the ability to make that silicon tubing through EMT. We can put all the assembly, the collection vessels and bottle-top assemblies through what NMS does. And then ARTeSYN itself, you have all that fluid management for flat sheet cassettes, for chromatography. We've already got the fluid management for hollow fibers. So it gives us a consumable plan. So when we think about chromatography where it's much harder to go out and acquire a company right now that is a true chromatography resin company because there's very few that are left, we felt like a way for us to play even further in chromatography and build off the success of OPUS was to have chromatography systems and fluid management consumables that would give us some additional leverage in that market. So that was the thinking. That was how -- why we executed the way we executed. And I think it puts us in a good position as there are some really important trends coming through in our industry. Whether it's semi-continuous or continuous manufacturing, ARTeSYN brings very accurate gradient systems into play for chromatography. They have very low hold-up volumes so you don't have a lot of yield loss on your product as people process their production stream using their system so, all in all, I think a good place for us.
Jacob Johnson
analystSo you mentioned these deals build out your system strategy. I think this is something you've been pretty clear about in recent years. But it's always helpful to be reminded, why is having these systems so important for your customers and such a priority for Repligen?
Anthony Hunt
executiveWell, I think from -- I think if we had gone back a few years ago, maybe we would have said we're not going to be able [ to do ] the consumable, let somebody else deal with the system piece. But after we solve what we were able to accomplish with the Spectrum systems from benchtop all the way to production scale and having the fluid management component, it became clear to us, you get multiple touch points with the customers. So you're not only in talking to them about the consumables, but you're also talking to them about the system. You're also putting benchtop systems into the process development lab, and so you're training people to use our technology. So for me, it's around the touch points with the customer. It's around, in a positive way, influencing the customer on what we bring to the table. It gives you more shots at goal. Why not have the razor and the razor blades, right? We've had a lot of razor blades, but we haven't got many razors, so why not have that? And the piece that's most important here is what we're doing isn't me-too, right? So ARTeSYN is not a me-too portfolio of products. It's actually the market leader in high-end filtration, chromatography skids. And they're highly differentiated versus what other players have. So for us, it builds on our core strategy of technology innovation, technology differentiation. And I think the more customers see of us and interact with us, the better it's going to be for Repligen longer term.
Jacob Johnson
analystSo I guess the follow-up there, you did these 3 deals this year that kind of beef up your systems capabilities, do you think you now have most of the critical elements for a system strategy in place? Or are there any other kind of gaps here that you could look to fill in at some point?
Anthony Hunt
executiveI think we have the majority of what we need, but there's always gaps, Jacob. And we've talked about what's our strategy around M&A. And honestly, we have a strategy in our proteins business. We have a strategy in analytics. We have a strategy in filtration. We have a strategy in chromatography. So if you do a deal in filtration, it's probably going to have an impact on what you do with systems down the road. So you would probably have never -- we would never have made the connection between C Tech and ARTeSYN 2 years ago. But now that we own both -- or once we get the ARTeSYN deal closed out completely but, in 2021, all those assets are in place, you can start to see how you can connect the dots. And I don't know if you would have -- we would have looked at the playing field 2 years ago, 3 years ago and said, oh, yes, if we do this in C Tech and this in ARTeSYN, we can have an even more integrated chromatography or filtration skids.
Jacob Johnson
analystMaybe on the ARTeSYN side of things, I think you called out $10 million of synergies over several years on that deal. I don't know if Jon wants to address this one, but maybe could you walk through how we should think about the timing of those synergies and maybe what they include?
Anthony Hunt
executiveYes, the only comment I'd make on it is, look, the most of it is channel because they have no sales team. But the big kind of winner, I think, from a product line point of view will be our flat sheet cassette business. So it's a combination of channel and flat sheet cassette synergies that are going to come. And I wouldn't expect anything in 2021, but it will be sort of 2022 and beyond.
Jon Snodgres
executiveJacob, maybe I'll just add to that since you called me out on it, too. I mean a great example is where we're selling OPUS columns, right, into the customer, that's a really great opportunity to leverage those touch points and our promise in OPUS columns and be able to sell the systems and bring those through as well. So that's an example of where that selling takes place.
Jacob Johnson
analystThanks for that, Jon. And then also, I think on the opportunity at ARTeSYN, Tony, if I'm not mistaken, there's an opportunity -- they've got a really good technology, but there's an opportunity to invest in their sales force and also leverage your existing sales force. If that's correct, it seems like a playbook you've used before but maybe kind of comment on that opportunity as well.
Anthony Hunt
executiveYes. We like assets with no sales team, with really good revenue and margins. So if we can find those, it's -- it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out, oh, this is the investment that should really help us. So look, in the case of ARTeSYN, I think it's a little bit like C Tech in the sense that the technology is really well reviewed, and customers really like what they've been able to do. I think maybe ARTeSYN is much earlier in the adoption cycle. So C Tech had the SoloVPE, and it was really the gold standard in the quality control labs whereas ARTeSYN is working with a handful of accounts that have really started to adopt their technology. I think by bringing them under the Repligen umbrella, there's a little bit of less anxiety maybe at the customer level that they're kind of jumping in bed with -- that is a small company and if they don't survive, what happens with the technology. So I think that's a positive, that it's part of Repligen. They've been successful through word of mouth as opposed to really sales commercial strategy, so we do need to look [ in where we have ] our specialists, and this has been the nice part, is we've been making the investment in systems and system specialists over the last 1.5 years, 2 years. So we'll look to add a few more specialists so we have the right coverage in Asia and North America and Europe. And then the rest of it is really around funnel management, funnel development, the consumables that would come out of EMT because EMT is one of the biggest suppliers into ARTeSYN on their consumables side. And then just spending first half of next year getting the funnel straightened out and then similar playbook to what we've done with some of our other deals.
Jacob Johnson
analystAnd maybe one other kind of strategic question about these deals. You bought EMT and NMS, you're a customer of both of them. You've done some vertical integration here. Just what was the thinking behind the vertical integration? Is this ensuring supply to some of these components or something else?
Anthony Hunt
executiveA little bit of that around supply, but I think more importantly is the fluid management strategy, right? So even in our ProConnex business, you have to get other companies to make the silicon tubing and the overmolded connection. So having the capability in-house now to do that manufacturing ourselves gives us a lot more control over our own destination. It also should eventually drop lead times down to be significantly lower than what might the industry average be. But to get there, we have to invest. We have to invest more in EMT. We'll be investing in NMS. So it's a combination of really making a bet on fluid management as opposed to any sort of vertical integration. We just think it's a smart move for us.
Jacob Johnson
analystAnd then maybe just a bigger picture question on this, in the past, certainly, with some of these larger deals, you said, "We want to take our time to integrate these before we look at buying something else." You've done 3 deals this year now, 2 of them were, I think, relatively smaller. Can you just talk about how intense this integration process will be maybe compared to some of the historical deals? And could you do additional M&A sooner rather than later? Or should we think that you'll maybe take your time integrating here before we should expect another acquisition?
Anthony Hunt
executiveI'll be the good politician and say we'll take our time and make sure we integrate well. But no, we have to do that. I mean that's -- we can't lose sight of what's gotten us here, which is having a good integration plan. We need to do it, as you and I were chatting before this call. I spent time last week really working with the ARTeSYN team thinking through how our integration should play out, having a game plan, it's a little bit like the Super Bowl where you put all -- your first 20 plays are kind of laid out. We try and figure out what are the top 10, 15 things we need to do in a 3-, 6-month time frame, and let's focus on those. We're always talking to companies, Jacob, you know that. And look, of the deals we've done this year, ARTeSYN is a medium-sized deal. It's got 5 sites, so there's plenty of integration. It's going to be, I think, commercially, maybe a little easier to integrate. Operationally, it's going to be plenty to do for our operations team. So I think those are the things that Jon and I look at when you look at a future deal is who does it impact, who are we stretching right now, can we stretch somebody even further if we did another deal in this space. So I think they're important parameters as well in terms of looking at what we might do in the next 12 to 18 months. But I expect that -- I don't think we're going to be any different in 2021 and 2022. Expect a deal every -- a reasonable-sized deal of kind of the ARTeSYN scale every kind of 12 to 18 months.
Jacob Johnson
analystGot it. So cell and gene therapy, probably what we would have first talked about if not for COVID-19 and the acquisitions this year. Maybe first, can you just remind us the -- really your key products for this end market where you're seeing the most demand?
Anthony Hunt
executiveYes. So it probably falls into 2 buckets. I think the easier side for us is our prepacked columns. The gene therapy customers really like the convenience of the service that we offer there. So that's always been sort of a staple for us. Then on the filtration side, it really is, believe it or not, our hollow fiber portfolio. And when I say hollow fiber, I mean ProConnex and modules. Our flat sheet cassettes have done very well in gene therapy, on our systems. And I think the systems business has really benefited because their -- our hollow fiber systems are pretty straightforward and simple. People like it. They're easy to use. So that whole portfolio has done quite well. I think what I'm probably really proud of this year is that we've worked really diligently with our C Tech team and trying to expand the applications for Solo and FlowVPE because up until now it's been a monoclonal antibody recombinant protein concentration measurement tool. And I've always felt that there's lots of other measurements that we can be doing. And I pushed Craig and the team to say, can we develop applications in gene therapy. And so we started to do that, and we picked up some nice revenue in Q3, looking at viral vector concentration, looking at -- one of the biggest technical challenges is empty versus full capsid. So we're beginning to make some inroads there. Plasma concentration is another one that customers really want to know. So by having those applications and then getting it -- getting that message out to the market through our marketing team and through our technical seminar, those are the wins that are going to help us in 2021 and 2022.
Jacob Johnson
analystGot it. So you talked about, I think, 30% growth -- 30%-plus growth from that end market this year. Can you just talk about what's driving that growth at Repligen? Is this a lot of new customer and new process wins? Or is this people scaling it up or it's probably both?
Anthony Hunt
executiveIt's both, it's both. I mean, clearly, a benefit from customers scaling. And every year, we're adding in new customers, so it really is both. As long as we -- as long as the industry for gene therapy stays healthy, I think it's a good place for us to be.
Jacob Johnson
analystSo I mean when you think about the growth from this end market going forward, and I think back to your comment about adding capacity maybe for COVID-19-related things, that cell and gene therapy is something that could come along in a couple of years and utilize a lot of the capacity that COVID is using today, I mean, what's the most key for Repligen on this end market? Is it just this activity, which just seems to be extremely high right now continuing? Or do we really need to see some commercial approvals at some point for the bioprocessing industry to continue growing as strong as it could from this end market?
Anthony Hunt
executiveYes. I mean that's the -- I mean commercial approval will be huge. Remember, we were talking a few years ago about biosimilars. And once biosimilars started to get approved, then it really feels -- everybody else is thinking about doing biosimilars, how fast they want to move into, which biosimilars are they going to go after. Gene therapy is kind of the same thought process, right? There's a lot of drugs that are moving through the pipeline, right? We have to see what the FDA does. There's a number that have already been approved. And I think just like some of the earlier comments -- I think the next couple of years is going to tell a lot around our work around gene therapy. I believe it's absolutely here to stay. I mean I think [ it's something like 700,000 molecules ] in development. So that's a really healthy place to be.
Jacob Johnson
analyst[ You talked about ] C Tech a lot and it -- there seems to be -- you sound very positive on it right now, maybe it's hitting its stride. Can you just remind us what it is that -- what are analytics and what does C Tech do?
Anthony Hunt
executiveYes. So the analytics piece -- and so what we're focused on is what I would call kind of at-line and in-line analytics, so you want to be able to measure, on the manufacturing floor what's going on in your operation. And I've had a lot of experience in that area. At Life Tech, I built out a business that was very focused on process and product contaminants with using qPCR technology. And so when I really first started talking to Craig who is the owner of C Tech, I mean you could really see that people were -- would love to get protein concentration measurements. And I'm using just protein as an example, but it could also be nucleic acid, it could also be any other entity that has an absorbance in the wavelengths that you can use the tools with or the system with. But in essence, if you're a monoclonal antibody, a recombinant protein manufacturer, you would really like to know what is the concentration of my target drug as it moves through the manufacturing process. And today, that's all done off-line, and you have to do various dilutions of your sample to get an actual result. What C Tech has is a technology that requires no dilution, it gives you results in a couple of seconds, and it can get you all the way up to 250 mgs per ml. So it doesn't matter whether you're doing chromatography, filtration or funnel formulation, you're going to be able to get a result very, very quickly, either at-line or in-line. And that -- just like you talk to customers who are looking at bioreactors or looking at chromatography columns and they say, oh, what's the sensor technology that we're -- what are we measuring? Well, we're measuring pH or we're measuring conductivity or UV, which is a proxy for protein concentration. But no one's really doing true protein concentration in real time. And I think that's what C Tech brings to the table. And we think that there's a real opportunity to build that franchise, expand it with new applications and then start to integrate it into the systems that we have today and that we're -- and we've just acquired.
Jacob Johnson
analystGot it. I will inevitably mix up Solo over Flow, so I'll ask the question this way. I think C Tech's largely at-line today. But in-line, there's an opportunity there, just trying maybe the mix of those today. And then as we look out a couple of years, which do you think will be larger?
Anthony Hunt
executiveYes. So 90% of the system revenue today or at least last year came from Solo. So the at-line or our quality control off-line analysis of proteins, our protein concentration. On the Flow side, it's a couple of years old as a technology. We've seen huge traction this year in terms of implementing or looking to implement FlowVPE into clinical manufacturing. And I think also people are seeing where C Tech is going with the next-generation technology. And I think that combination of it works. Two, there's a better product coming. And three is it's something that everybody really wants to do, right? There's no real resistance around, oh, would you like to be able to measure your protein concentration in real time or your nucleic acid concentration in real time or measure empty versus full capsids in real time. The answer, of course, is yes. The difficult question is what do I have to do, how long does it take and how easy is it to implement. And they're the things that we're working on but expect that FlowVPE will be as important as TFDF technology in the future. So it's in the same ballpark of importance to customers.
Jacob Johnson
analystAnd I guess one follow-up on that, I mean is this a situation where you still need to maybe improve FlowVPE a little bit to drive adoption? Or is this customers just needing to kind of jump in with both feet and to real-time monitor?
Anthony Hunt
executiveYes, it's a bit of both. I think the current product is -- I think people like it. They'd like to see the software be a little bit more GMP. They like to see a smaller footprint. So we're working on all of those things, that's what you get with a next-gen version of the product. So I think kind of Gen-2 Flow is just going to lower the barrier for people to try and adopt almost the same way as -- do you remember when we were talking about single-use ATF a few years ago, and we were saying, hey, when people go from stainless to single use, the -- you don't need an autoclave, therefore, the barriers to trial and adoption are going to go down. And that's exactly what happened. And I think with this next-gen Flow, the barrier for trial and adoption is going to go down, right?
Jacob Johnson
analystGot it. So 5 minutes left, I've got maybe 2 questions. First, maybe for Jon, I think pretty strong gross margin performance thus far this year. But I think, given all of this demand you're seeing, you're bringing on some capacity, so could you kind of remind us how we should be thinking about gross margins maybe at least in the fourth quarter or maybe into next year a little bit, too?
Jon Snodgres
executiveYes. Sure. So I think thus far this year, the revenue growth has a little bit outpaced our additions of head count and capacity. But I think in the fourth quarter, we're going to see a bit more on the hiring front as well as some of these fixed assets, including our Phase II SAP coming through and starting to be depreciated, along with more people on the payroll. So we'd expect a little bit of a catch-up there on the cost side. And so we're looking, in the fourth quarter, somewhere in the range of 56% to 57% gross margin while we've been right around and slightly above 58% thus far this year. So I think that's -- kind of take that and look forward on that. That's probably a good starting point for looking at the business next year. And then I would also factor in the fact that we pulled in ARTeSYN, NMS and EMT as a combined effect there, we're going to be -- those are going to come in right around a little bit north of 50%. There's going to be a little bit of dilution on that gross margin percent going forward. So call that 0.5 point to 1 point. So you're going to be somewhere in the range of that kind of 55% to 56%, 55.5% to 56.5% range starting the year. And I think we'll expand it as we go forward out of that.
Jacob Johnson
analystAnd then maybe last question, kind of big picture and boiling all of this down to numbers, I mean, Tony, clearly really strong backdrop for bioprocessing right now. You've long talked about 10% to 15% organic growth and obviously put up much better results than that. But I think at the beginning of this year, if I'm not mistaken, you kind of put out $500 million to $600 million of revenues by 2023 as how people should be thinking about the long term. I'd just be curious if you have any kind of updated thoughts on that.
Anthony Hunt
executiveYes. And that's something that we're actually looking at as we speak. And I'm sure when we get to our February earnings call, we'll give a little bit more sort of guidance on sort of long-term trajectory for the company. But clearly, we're ahead of where we thought we were going to be, right? So in 2016, we said $200 million, $250 million by 2020, with 60% gross margin, mid-20s on operating margin. You can see we're at $350 million, if you take our midpoint of guidance. I mean you just don't know the deals that you're going to be able to execute. So I think deals have helped, but we've also grown our core business at a faster clip. So when you look to the future, I mean, clearly, our 2023 numbers should be higher than $400 million, $500 million, right? So that's a given. We just need to think through exactly where we think we're going to be 2, 3 years from now. But you can see the trajectory we're on. And we continue to execute, stay differentiated with our technologies that we brought to market, get these new products out the door and also continue to do the selective M&As and find some of these gems that we've been able to find over the years. I think the future is really bright for us.
Jacob Johnson
analystWell, on that note, Tony and Jon, always good to get to spend some time with you. Thanks for joining us today, as always.
Anthony Hunt
executiveThanks, Jacob.
Jon Snodgres
executiveYes, thank you.
Anthony Hunt
executiveAppreciate it.
Jon Snodgres
executiveIt's a pleasure.
Anthony Hunt
executiveYes.
Jon Snodgres
executiveBye, everybody.
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