Ridley Corporation Limited (RIC) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
August 18, 2022
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorThank you for standing by, and welcome to the Ridley Corporation Limited full-year results. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Quinton Hildebrand, Managing Director and CEO. Please go ahead, sir.
Quinton Hildebrand
executiveThank you, Renan, and good morning to everyone, and thank you for joining us today. With me is Richard Betts, Chief Financial Officer; and Kirsty Clarke, General Counsel and Company Secretary. The results presentation that we're going to be through today was published on the ASX platform this morning, along with other financial disclosures. And you'll be able to access the presentation through this Open Briefing platform. However, before we start today, I just want to bring your attention to 2 other disclosures made by the Ridley Chairman, Mick McMahon, in the last 24 hours. Firstly, an announcement involving Board's succession with Julie Raffe joining the Board effective from the 1st of September; and David Lord announcing his retirement from the Board after the AGM in November due to his increasing commitments elsewhere. Secondly, the announcement that Ridley will be undertaking an on-market share buyback in FY '23 for up to $20 million, commencing around the 13th of October 2022. And if you'd like further information on either of these matters, please refer to the announcement on the ASX platform. I'm now going to commence with the results presentation, starting at Page 2 with the FY '22 financial highlights. I'm very pleased to report our third success of strong performance. A net profit after tax of $42.4 million and an underlying EBITDA of $80.1 million. This is a 16% year-on-year growth in our underlying EBITDA and represents growth in both reporting segments. In addition, the balance sheet was substantially strengthened in the year with a net debt reduction of $60.2 million, following the sale of the Westbury extrusion plant and the disciplined capital management within the business. This has taken our leverage ratio to 0.29x. And from this position of strength, we've opted to fund the larger inventory position at the year-end as we proactively ensured that we meet our customers' demand in spite of fragmented supply chains. This performance has culminated in an underlying ROFE of 10.9%, which is being recognized in the movement in our share price, having demonstrated a 62% lift in TSR for the period. Reflecting the confidence in the sustained performance of the company, the Board has opted to declare a $0.04 dividend, up from $0.02 in the prior comparative period, and the intention to commence an on-market share buyback of up to $20 million commencing this half. Behind these financial highlights and moving to the next slide, FY '22 has been another successful year for the company, during which we've completed our first ambitious 3-year growth plan. We operated safely through the COVID-19 challenges, met our customers' needs despite the disrupted supply chains, proactively managed through some pretty volatile commodity markets, including the implications of the Russian invasion into Ukraine. And through this, we've increased our asset utilization and added market share and grown earnings, generated cash and reduced debt. Whilst performing in year, we've also been developing our capability for future growth by investing in capital and profit improvement projects and capacity upgrades, recruiting specialized capability that will differentiate our future performance from our competitors. Richard established a protective cell captive in Guernsey to access the reinsurance market more directly, and that's enabling us to actively manage our risk and to lower our insurance premiums. And we successfully went live with our ERP upgrade and have been deploying NIRS technology more extensively across the business. And at the same time, we've developed our sustainability pathway. And all of this is creating a solid platform for the launch of our FY '23 to FY '25 growth plan that we shared with you on the 31st of May and which I'll refer to later in the presentation. Moving now to Slide 4 with the reporting segments. The Packaged and Ingredients segment delivered an EBITDA before significant items of $58 million, up 25% on the prior year and an EBITDA ROFE of 28.5%. Our Ingredients Recovery business, which we formerly referred to as Rendering, improved its returns as we benefit from our ongoing capital investments and product premiumization. And we've also been enjoying higher selling prices for tallows and oils, some of which is shared with our suppliers. As you know, we have -- the feedstock is indexed to the finished product prices. So we share those gains with the suppliers. We've also achieved strong volume uplift in our branded packaged sales business in both the traditional rural distribution channels and we've been increasing sales in the urban pet food markets. In the year, we had lower Aquafeed volumes following the sale of the Westbury facility as the sales to our salmon customers were curtailed with production allocated to maintaining our supply to the growing prawn and barramundi markets in Northern Australia. Our Novaq operations in Thailand broke-even, However, there was a small loss incurred within this segment due to the costs of the R&D site at Yamba prior to us closing that facility in May 2022. So that's the sum-up of the segments. I'll now hand to Richard -- sorry. Skipped a page. Moving on to the Bulk Stockfeeds segment, which is Slide 5 of the presentation. This segment delivered an EBITDA of $32.4 million (sic) [ $34.4 ] and an EBITDA ROFE of 29%. Pleasingly, we increased the market share across all major species in Bulk Stockfeeds and the most significant growth volumes coming from poultry and dairy. These volume gains have improved our mill utilization and lowered the costs, and this is the flywheel effect that we have referred to before. We've also leveraged our competitive advantage in raw materials procurement, and that's assisted us in succeeding through what's been a pretty choppy commodity market period. I'll now hand over to Richard to run through the financials in greater detail, as well as our capital management.
Richard Betts
executiveGood morning, everyone, and thank you, Quinton. Turning now to Slide 7, the profit and loss summary. As Quinton has already walked you through, the operating segments delivered a combined EBITDA of $92.3 million, which represented an improvement on the previous corresponding period of $13.3 million or 17%. The corporate costs increased by $2.3 million to $12.2 million, with the underlying costs remaining well-controlled. The increase is related primarily to the higher accruals associated with the employee incentive schemes, which are aligned to the increase in the performance of the business. During the period, the business reported a net significant gain of $8.9 million or $6.2 million after tax. The gain's related primarily to the sale of the Westbury extrusion site in August 2021, the sale of 3 non-core sites and the reversal of related excess business restructuring provisions created back in FY 2020. During the period, the business successfully implemented D365, and as a result, incurred a further $2.3 million of costs associated with the provision of Software-as-a-Service. No further costs in relation to the implementation are expected to be brought to account as individually significant items. Depreciation for the period was $25.8 million, representing a decrease of $3.8 million, which is related primarily to the reduction following the sale of Westbury facility. The increase in income tax is $7.9 million. It was commensurate with the increase in underlying profit and the net significant gain. Pleasingly, the net impact of the above was an increase in net comprehensive income of $42.4 million, representing an increase of $17.5 million or 70%. On Page 8 is an overview of the balance sheet, which shows an increase in net assets of $28.5 million. This included the benefit from the retirement of net debt of $60.2 million, which was partially driven through the sale of the Westbury facility and the other surplus assets, which were held for resale in last year's balance sheet. The net working capital increased by $17 million, which related primarily to the strategic decision to hold additional inventory to help support our customers and maintain our margins, given the challenging supply chain and commodity conditions that prevailed during the financial year. These challenges are expected to remain at least into the first half of FY '23. However, the business is well positioned to react to these. While the net increase in working capital was in line with expectations, the movement in individual line items was significant, reflecting the impact of large increases in the cost of raw materials and higher supply chain costs, resulting in increases in both inventory and creditors at year-end. Pleasingly, the robustness of our business model has been demonstrated as the increases were largely able to be passed on to customers, which is also reflected in the higher trade receivables. Property, plant and equipment remained in line with the prior year, reflecting our commitment to reinvestment economics. The implementation of some of our improved growth capital was however delayed due to COVID and supply chain-related issues. Turning now to Page 9 and the group's cash flow. The business reduced net debt by $60 million during the period and currently only has net debt of $22.9 million. The total reduction in debt over the last 2 years has been $124 million. The net cash flow for the year was achieved on the back of strong earnings performance and the proceeds from the sale of surplus assets of $60 million. The cash flow was negatively impacted by the increase in the working capital of $16.9 million. And while affected by rising costs of raw materials, as previously discussed, the primary reason for the increase was the strategic decision to hold $21 million of additional inventory. CapEx during the period was $24 million, resulting from our continued focus on reinvesting in the quality of our assets, with $13 million or 54% of our total CapEx spend relating to maintenance or [ sustenance ] capital. Pleasingly, the strong earnings growth over the last 2 years resulted in the return to paying of dividend. During the period, a total of $17.1 million was paid to shareholders by way of fully-franked dividends. The increase in the net tax payments are reflective of the improved operating performance. The prior year was reduced on the back of the large restructuring costs incurred in the FY '20 financial year. As set out on Page 10 of our presentation, the reduction in net debt from $83.1 million to $22.9 million has meant that the company has a very healthy balance sheet and is operating well within our key metrics, with gearing falling from 28.9% to 7.2% and the leverage ratio falling from 1.2x down to 0.29x. The strength of these ratios and the low level of net debt has enabled the business to announce its intention to complete a share buyback of up to $20 million of issued capital. This initiative will be funded through existing facilities and still leaves the business with further capacity for investment in growth. Turning now to Page 11 and the capital allocation model. This model was implemented at the end of FY '21 and used to support the prioritization of our available capital by aligning the returns from the investment in the business and the desire to return -- to make returns to shareholders against our communicated metrics. During the period, the business delivered strongly against the model, with the following key deliverables achieved: The business used its strong balance sheet to carry in excess of $20 million of strategic inventory to help minimize the impact of supply chain disruptions. Invested appropriately in maintenance capital despite the challenge of COVID-19-related delays. Increased dividends, both paid and determined, from $0.02 per share in FY '21 to $0.074 per share in FY '22, including a final dividend of $0.04 per share as announced today. The $0.074 per share in FY '22 is at the top end of our stated range. These results have helped deliver a total shareholder return of 62% in the year. And finally, the combination of the strong operating performance, our improved balance sheet and strong outlook has enabled the announcement of our intention to complete a share buyback of up to $20 million of issued capital. That concludes the financial component of the presentation. I will now hand back to Quinton to run through the growth strategy.
Quinton Hildebrand
executiveThanks, Richard. If I can refer you to Page 12 of the presentation. I don't intend to go through the growth strategy in detail today as we did outline that back in May, and we can elaborate that as we go through on the roadshow in a few weeks' time. But I do want to just summarize the plan as we have it. This is a plan that's been developed by the team, and we have growth expectations from each business unit within the portfolio. If we just go to the next slide before we get into the new growth plan and we look at Slide 13, this is just a summary of the FY '20 to '22 growth plan. And some of you will be pleased. This will be the last time you'll see this, but this is the first time we've been able to put the financial results for that plan up. And that shows the EBITDA growing from $48 million in FY '19 through to $59 million, $69 million and $80 million this year. And with this momentum, we've set the growth plan for the business units going forward. So moving to Slide 14. And this is the Bulk Stockfeeds reporting segment, where Ridley has got a market share of about 20%. And our strategy is to continue growing our -- improving our customer experience in winning business and getting higher utilization through increasing volumes. We'll have plans to debottleneck our sites and increase capacity. And all of this will add to the flywheel effect that will grow earnings for the business. If you move to the next slide, 15, the Packaged and Ingredients reporting segment, which consists of 4 business units. And each one of these has a different strategy within them. Within our Ingredients Recovery business, the plan is to continue climbing the wall, and that's premiumizing our end product. And that will continue to lift our margins in this business as well as give us the capability to pay more for raw materials and continue attracting the supply. In the Packaged Product business, we look to continue growing our market share with a particular focus on companion animal. And then in the Aquafeed Business, our focus is on securing the tropical aqua species shares and making sure that we can differentiate our offering on a number of sustainability solutions that we have developed. And finally, our plans to commercialize NovaqPro and to make sure that we continue the scale-up in Thailand as well as shifting sales from -- which have historically been domestic, to penetrating the international market. We move to Slide 16. Just repeating here the importance of our sustainability pathway to our 3-year growth plan as we see this as a real opportunity for us to differentiate ourselves from our competitors. And we've landed on 4 key pillars here: sourcing smarter ingredients, optimizing production, delivering effective solutions and enhancing the meaningful partnerships with our customers, staff and communities. And this pathway is designed to deliver better outcomes, both environmentally and financially, and to present further competitive advantage for Ridley. Moving to Slide 17. And no surprise here that the sustainability pathway is a key foundation stone for the FY '23 to '25 plan. And so it's embedded at the base. And on that foundation, we've identified key optimization and growth initiatives in both Bulk Stockfeeds and our Packaged and Ingredients segments. And these key initiatives are labeled on the right-hand side of the slide. And our teams will be focusing on executing these initiatives over the next 3 years. And we believe that we can continue to extend the growth that we've achieved in the past 3-year plan. And so as we go forward, we'll be reporting against our performance on this growth plan. So that takes us to Slide 18, where I just wanted to summarize why we're backing ourselves to continue this growth momentum. Firstly, the macro demand outlook is positive. The Australian farm gate output is forecast to continue increasing. And Ridley, as a market leader in the animal nutrition sector, has a number of scale benefits that we -- differentiate ourselves on a cost basis, and we have the capacity to employ specialists and adopt technology. So that can assist us in continuing to differentiate our offering to customers and support our margins. Ridley's got a competitive advantage in the sector within sustainability. And as expectations rise from consumers, we think this remains a real opportunity for us. Ridley's got a geographical spread and we supply multiple -- multi-species across the range and have a broad spread of customers. And this, together with our risk management discipline, we believe, protects our earnings resilience through weather, disease and market cycles. And finally, we've got a well-defined growth plan and a strong balance sheet. And so sticking to our disciplined approach to capital allocation, we think that we're well positioned to continue to drive growth and take advantage of opportunities that will create shareholder value. And lastly, moving to the outlook on Slide 20. Ridley expects to grow earnings and cash flow in the year ahead by increasing sales as we support the growth of our existing customers and win market share, by implementing cost savings and efficiency initiatives and by executing on the growth plans in place for each business unit. With the cash generated from operations and a strong balance sheet, we expect to support the ongoing investment in the business and to pay the dividends, leaving capacity for us to undertake the announced on-market share buyback and to pursue growth opportunities. So thank you to you all for staying on to this -- the end of the presentation. I'll now hand back to the moderator, who will field your questions. Thanks.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from James Ferrier with Wilsons.
James Ferrier
analystCongratulations on the results, and thanks for your time. Can I ask about the Packaged and Ingredients segment first? Second-half EBITDA was up a few million dollars on the first half. So there's obviously some good drivers there of the full-year growth that you've referenced in the presentation. But can you give some color on the half-on-half increase, please?
Quinton Hildebrand
executiveThanks, James. Yes, half-on-half, seeing growth in the Rendering business. So that's the Ingredient Recovery business. And so that's ongoing strength there, a number of key projects completing at the start of the second half and contributing to the earnings and then ongoing price support. The other -- we're half-on-half in terms of Packaged, a pretty steady performance. The -- a marginal improvement in the Aquafeed business unit post the close -- really exiting Westbury. And then importantly, Novaq, you'll recall at the half, we indicated that there's a timing in the first half of the year, we have work in progress. We're making the Novaq in Thailand. And in the second half, we dispatch it from Thailand to Australia and account for that. So those are the contributors to the half-on-half.
James Ferrier
analystExcellent. That makes sense. Secondly, on the Bulk side, it's sort of the opposite. We saw second-half EBITDA decline on the first half. And again, some really good drivers of the full-year growth in that segment. But can you give some color there on the half-on-half decline?
Quinton Hildebrand
executiveYes. So in terms of volumes, we saw a marginal increase half-on-half in the Bulk Stockfeeds segment. There was a fair amount of volatility in the raw material side. And so we -- and that was following the Ukrainian war and subsequent movements in commodity prices. And as you know, we are successful in passing that through -- onto the customers and in the marketplace. But there can be a lag in that process. And so just during the second half, we did -- we withstood some of that volatility. I don't see any structural issue to our margins, going forward.
James Ferrier
analystGreat. And the third and final question from me, just on the growth initiatives. Can you give us a bit of flavor for what sort of contribution to earnings you achieved in FY '22 from Project Boost and any other initiatives in play and what you'd expect to fall into FY '23?
Quinton Hildebrand
executiveI'll let Richard answer this. Yes.
Richard Betts
executiveYes. So James, just in relation -- and for those who are not aware, Project Boost was a project that we announced in excess of 12 months ago, which effectively is a consolidation of small projects, totaling about $15 million of capital spend, with an expected benefit of around $9 million. So high-returning projects around the combination of efficiency, debottle and debottlenecking initiatives. It'd be fair to say that some of the challenges in relation to the supply chain and the issues with accessing particularly products such as steel and the like and just accessing equipment from overseas has meant that where we were expecting our first year of contribution from Project Boost in FY '22, that's now being delayed into FY '24 just due to the delay in spending. However, we've now had a combination of $11 million of capital that has either now started to be implemented or has been approved. The expectation is that, that $9 million would deliver a full contribution in FY '24. And then I guess, subject to the timing delays and issues that we're seeing in terms of just putting capital on the ground, we would expect it somewhere in the range of sort of $2.5 million to $4 million of improvement in FY '23 as a result of Boost.
James Ferrier
analystAnd just to clarify, you mentioned FY '24 there a few times. So effectively, full run rate in FY '24 and then you quoted that $2.5 million to $4 million would be the FY '23 benefit?
Quinton Hildebrand
executiveThat's right. Yes.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from Paul Buys with Credit Suisse.
Paul Buys
analystFirst one, a follow-up, if I may, please, on that commentary on the Bulk side. And I don't know if I'm sort of overemphasizing it. Just Richard's comment, I guess, earlier in the presentation, talking about the parts you said kind of largely passed through. And then Quinton, you were talking about the lag there. I just want to understand that, does that mean the parts that aren't passed through? Or does it mean it was largely passed through in this period and you will get the rest of it at a later stage? Just trying to understand that. And with reference to the fact that the second half was down in Bulks on both first half and PCP. Just trying to understand as they kind of catch up that comes in first half '23, or just trying to put that momentum in context.
Quinton Hildebrand
executiveYes. Good. So the pass-through should be achieved into the market in full over time. So it's just -- to answer your question, it's a timing matter. Just to give you some context on that, you'll recall we've got some large monogastric customers, who take their own price risk on commodities. So in those cases, they bear the impact of rising raw materials immediately. So they're sort of excluded. Then you've got a category of customers that we have and the example being dairy, where when prices go up, we need to pass those through, and that can take a couple of weeks. And we've obviously got to be mindful of what's happening with our competitors as well. And so there's a short -- there's a short lag on that category. And then the third sort of category would be our Packaged products, where we're supplying through distribution networks. And those require us to change distribution prices and price lists. And that can take over a month to work through. So those -- that's sort of the color behind the raw material impact. But the -- ultimately, as our competitors are facing the same underlying cost pressures, those have to be passed through.
Richard Betts
executiveSo just a little bit further to that, James, just to be clear, the use of the term primarily in mine was in relation to just the delays in recovery rather than a shortfall in terms of recovery.
Paul Buys
analystYes, I was going to say, that was me being picky, not James. All good. Okay. And then just -- so with your broader outlook comment then on expectations for further growth into FY '23. Just for the sake of clarification, presumably, you would be expecting both divisions to grow underlying profit in Q3?
Quinton Hildebrand
executiveYes, that's correct.
Paul Buys
analystAnd then just, I guess, on the Rendering, Ingredient Recovery side of things. I guess just keen to get a sort of updated market outlook or market expectations from you guys in terms of those selling prices, which has obviously been a favorable tailwind for the last little while. Just want to get an idea of what you're seeing in terms of momentum and expectations into next year for those selling prices.
Quinton Hildebrand
executiveYes. We don't see any softness in the price outlooks going forward. In fact, price expectations on tallow and oils in the short to medium term are actually stronger. So that's, again, driven by the demand in the U.S. and the government policy, both state and federal, for the biofuels industry. So recent announcements that had just been made by President Biden have just supported that further. So the outlook on tallows and oils is for ongoing strength. And meat proteins, we see those prices supported as well.
Paul Buys
analystGot it. And then kind of also an extension, I guess, to James' question. You just touched on Project Boost. Supply chain rationalization, I think you said at the half-year results, which might have been something you would have done this year. You've spoken about pushing that into FY '23. I'm just wondering, given, I guess, ongoing disruption to supply chain, if that still -- that rationalization is still something you expect to do next year or if that's perhaps pushed out?
Quinton Hildebrand
executiveWe've just started with some of that implementation on a phased basis. Just in terms of some of our transport contracts through a tender process a few months ago, we've consolidated a number of contracts on the Bulk Stockfeeds side. And with some benefits there that will start to contribute in FY '23. We've also, just from a procurement -- sort of a non-raw material procurement process, we've got some new capability within Ridley and driving a bit more overseas direct procurement. And so some small wins have started there. So the way I would view that is the supply chain initiative, you can see that it was in the first 3-year plan that we had, and it's now pretty prominent in the second 3-year plan. So it's likely to come to the fall through '23, '24, '25 on a phased-in process. So we're probably a little bit more conservative as to how we execute, just given the environment we're in, but we've commenced that.
Paul Buys
analystAnd then last one from me, pushing my luck a bit here. But just wondering if you have any comments on a new side item that's been prominent in the last month or so, which is a foot and mouth seems to die down and certainly in terms of news coverage. But just interested in any comments that -- in terms of how you see that playing out. And any potential impact or otherwise to your business?
Quinton Hildebrand
executiveThanks, Paul. Yes. We're taking the foot and mouth threat very seriously, and we do that for all biosecurity matters. Within our operations, we're very focused and set up for biosecurity risk, and we have very disciplined operating procedures. We have formed a separate sort of oversight group to manage foot and mouth internally. And that's just working through the operational aspects. And we've done audits of the sites and those kind of things, just to make sure we're ready to deal with any risk. And we've also engaged -- we're engaging with externals, both the regulators as well as our customers as well, just to make sure that we're all aligned. We've appointed an external epidemiologist, Mark Stevenson, who's from the University of Melbourne, and he's very involved in the different government bodies. And so he's just assisting us to review our plans and make sure that we're doing the right scenario planning. But as a company, we're well positioned for these sort of biosecurity risks through our geographical spread and through the fact that we have different species as well as we have a broad range of customers, a broad portfolio of customers. So we're as well positioned as we can and -- relative to others. But nevertheless, there's just no room for complacency.
Operator
operatorThe next question comes from Paul Jensz with PAC Partners.
Paul Jensz
analystWith the mixed growth phase, Quin, it does depend on that nutrition discussion with customers. Could you go through a little bit about how that discussion is going to premiumize the product that is going to customers?
Quinton Hildebrand
executiveSo I suppose, Paul, the -- it's different in different segments. So where we're supplying feed, say, through Bulk Stockfeeds and through Aqua, our capability, both having species-specific nutritionists with international networks and making sure we're leveraging the latest thinking on nutrition. Plus our global mix software, which is pretty -- which we're the only ones who operate at that level of sophistication in the country. Plus linking our laboratories on both measuring the ingredients within -- coming in, in the raw materials and then the finished feed product. We're able to hone down our nutritional inputs from both a cost effectiveness point of view as well as to meet the specific needs of the animal. You want to get it spot on. You don't want to be overallocating ingredients because it's costly, and the animal doesn't need it, so that's environmental wastage. So -- and you don't want to be short on any ingredients or nutrition because the animal will underperform. So that capability is important. Our -- we've got, particularly in the newer mills, that technology in our mills, and we've got the capability in our people in the nutrition system setup. That's a key area for us to continue to invest and to differentiate ourselves because that's our value proposition. In the Ingredients Recovery business, where we are premiumizing our meat protein meals and tallows, and that's coming from, again, using our laboratory and NIRS technology and honing our capability there, but also working quite specifically with some of our end users. And this might be in Aqua. But also, a key market for us is the pet food market, where they're wanting specific digestibility. And as you know, we've spent some capital to give us the capability to be able to meet higher value products that are high spec for niche markets. So those are -- it's slightly different in different parts of the business, but making sure that we're driving the science is part of our future success.
Paul Jensz
analystExcellent. And maybe a question for Kirsty then. With the changes that Ridley has made and you've initiated in the last 3 years with relationships with customers and contracts and the value at risk, I'm interested in versus experience with contracts and with the way that risk is managed within Ridley and how that's on an improving pathway.
Kirsty Clarke
executiveWell, we do have standard templates that we use with customers that are tailored to [ order ], are designed to capture the key risks that we have at Ridley in terms of supply. So I'd say that we're mature in that area and that we -- particularly when we're renewing contracts, we make sure that we're using contracts that are based on the key risks that we have here at Ridley and that we have an understanding of where the liability lies and how that liability is controlled contractually.
Paul Jensz
analystIt's just we've seen a change, I think, in the last few years and that we've gone from sort of a confrontational type thing 3 years ago to a more commensurate and collegiate and respectable approach, Quinton.
Quinton Hildebrand
executiveYes. I mean, that's absolutely true. Having a contract that can manage the risk and the liability is important. Equally important is to have that understanding and relationship with your customers that you resolve issues as they arise and they don't become legal matters. And so I think that's on top of the contractual component. It's that proactivity and approach, which is important for us.
Paul Jensz
analystMaybe switching to Richard for my final question then is just this whole value-at-risk approach and I suppose the longer-term nature of inventory. How mature are you now with that sort of process? Is there another iteration do you think, Richard, to ? Or do you think you've got that mature value-at-risk model [ out ] now?
Richard Betts
executiveI'd never say that we had finished in that space, Paul. I think the very nature of our industry and the opportunities that arise at various stages and the risks that come about means that we're constantly happening to look at the nature of our model and how we react. I mean I think you only have to look at the events of the last 6 months to indicate when we thought we'd seen it all, you get thrown something else. So I think we continue to look many of those at the moment. Quite often how we react to that is through a manual process. And I think one of the things we'll be looking at through D365 and the implementation of the system, and then in further enhancements is how we get a more automated view of those things. We'll still never take away from the fact that you need to react and react quickly to changing events. But I think there's certainly more work that we will continue to do and need to do in that space. But in terms of the -- I think the maturity level we've got at the moment, it's strong, but I would never say that, that work is finished.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from Apoorv Sehgal with UBS.
Apoorv Sehgal
analystQuinton, Richard, congrats on the result. I just had a few follow-up questions actually from some of the previous questions that were already asked. Quinton, you made a comment earlier that you expect both divisions to obviously grow in FY '23 in EBITDA terms. Is that comment consistent for first-half '23, specifically, as well on a year-on-year basis, I guess, particularly as the pass-through in that Stockfeed business start's to come through in the first half?
Quinton Hildebrand
executiveYes. We do expect volumes in Bulk Stockfeeds to continue to grow. And we've -- it's hard to know what's going to happen to commodity pricing, going forward. But the pass-through cycle of the first half has realized in the pricing that we have today. But that's subject to what happens from here onwards.
Apoorv Sehgal
analystGot it. And then just to clarify on Project Boost. Did you say the contribution there was zero in FY '22 before, hopefully, 2.5 to $4 million EBITDA in '23 and then the full $9 million in '24? Did I hear that right?
Richard Betts
executiveYes, it wasn't zero, but it was not significant. So it was -- I think we saw 4 projects that were completed in the last quarter, and the contribution was sort of in the range of about $100,000 for the year.
Apoorv Sehgal
analystClose enough to zero. Okay. And then just on the supply chain rationalization piece. Again, just sort of clarify that I got it right. Was that zero in '22? Hopefully, a couple million contribution starting in '23, but maybe you're seeing the full benefits that have come through across '24, '25. Is that right?
Quinton Hildebrand
executiveYes, that would be a fair summary.
Apoorv Sehgal
analystOkay. And just on Novaq then. So you said a breakeven result in EBITDA in FY '22, which is consistent with what you called out in the first-half results. So we're going to '23 then. Should we expect like some sort of low single-digit-positive-type EBITDA number for Novaq?
Quinton Hildebrand
executiveYes. I suppose if we go back in -- so this year, excluding Yamba, was breakeven. The prior year, we indicated it was a minus $2 million contribution from the business to support the growth of Novaq, and we're hoping to keep that sort of trajectory going forward as we grow the -- as we increase sales and reduce our costs to grow margin.
Apoorv Sehgal
analystPerfect. I was going to -- while I got you, Rich, just on inventory and cash conversion into FY '23, I mean, should we generally expect some sort of normalization over the next 12 months?
Richard Betts
executiveYes. I think -- look, I don't know that we would commit to that because I don't think we -- in the current environment, we know what the new normal is. But having said that, I think as we're starting to see some of the highs of particularly some of the commodity cycles start to come off, we're starting to look towards our bias being towards a reduction. But I think we would -- I think I'd be reluctant to commit to anything, other than to say, the quality of our balance sheet allows us to take advantage of the movements in the cycles in terms of both holding more inventory. However, I will say that our current thinking is if conditions continue as they have, it would be fair to assume there will be some sort of reduction in FY '23, based on where we sit today.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from Mark Topy with Select Equities.
Mark Topy
analystFirst question just around, I suppose, the capital use and obviously, announcement of the buyback. I suppose there's a little bit of a signal on capital management use. But I'm just trying to put that in context, perhaps, of any acquisition opportunities that are out there you might see or just how you think about that? And I suppose it's been, over time, rationalization consolidation in the industry. But is it fair to assume that you think you might be able to, if you like, gain market share, pick up customers that are long-standing customers with existing operators in the business as opposed to perhaps making acquisitions that might bring in customers like that? And just more generally, how do you see the acquisition opportunities out there relative to your balance sheet strength now? Sorry, long question.
Quinton Hildebrand
executiveThat's good. And you -- it's a pretty broad one. So if I can start at the back end of your question and then work back, as you summarized, first prize for us is to gain market share through our existing assets and get the asset utilization up. And we've absolutely been doing that over the last 3 years. So we're growing in market share, and our mills are significantly fuller than they used to be. And part of the growth plan is, we've got 4 debottlenecking projects underway as we speak. So we see ourselves continuing to grow in volumes, grow in market share and attract new customers. So that's the first prize. Obviously, there is a transport economics equation in here and a certain distance from your feed mill doesn't -- won't pay for us to -- we won't be competitive into a new geography. So we will continue to look at acquisition opportunities. We have been and we haven't made any in those -- in that area. And the reason for that is just taking a disciplined approach to returns. And in some cases, some of the assets that have changed hands, haven't been -- haven't had the quality of earnings or the quality of the asset. And so it just hasn't warranted us making an acquisition. So our returns are coming right now from us investing back in our own assets, organic growth, and these are just debottlenecks with pretty good paybacks. So that's what's getting the priority at this point. But we will continue to look at other acquisition opportunities, which given our -- the debt reduction that we've achieved and the current level of our borrowings, it's sort of $20-something million, means we're in a very strong position. And we still want to be -- we want to keep options for M&A opportunities going forward. We want to remain with a conservative balance sheet just due to uncertain times. But the buyback is at up to $20 million, really is -- would move us from $20 million to $40 million in debt, still have a very low leverage ratio and leave the opportunity for growth and for -- and buffer. So we think that the Board made the decision based on this being a happy hybrid. And we've obviously increased the dividend payments as well. So that's sort of a summary on our thinking on capital management. But I hope that's satisfied your broad question. Otherwise, happy to take a second on that.
Mark Topy
analystAnd probably as a follow-up, can you maybe just expand a little more on how much market share you've taken? Or how do you see the opportunity there? It's hard to put a number around the thesis, a 5%, 10%, just to give us some quantum to understand that in terms of, say, the Victorian, New South Australian market or however you sort of segment it.
Quinton Hildebrand
executiveYes. So -- and again, different parts of our portfolio. But if I get your questions are more on the Bulk Stockfeeds side. In Bulk Stockfeeds, we would be about 20% of the market. And just based on our volumes and using some data, we would think that going forward, as we put on some -- with the debottlenecking, some additional capacity, we think that we would be growing at sort of 1% of the market per year. That would be a sort of a target. But I would hope we would achieve and would support our growth plan.
Mark Topy
analystRight. Okay. That expands it. And just on that cost side and the ability to pass-through costs on the Bulk, can you -- there's obviously been a range of cost increases in addition to raw materials? Does your rise and fall in the contracts permit you to increase on the range in sort of cost input, low-price energy or other cost inputs as well?
Quinton Hildebrand
executiveYes. Good question, Mark. And we're feeling the same pressures as everybody in terms of the inflation drivers we're probably a little better to manage some of these in different areas, just given scale and given some of our arrangements that we have and the fact that we're growing in volume, which also helps offset that, and we've got a number of cost-out initiatives across the group. So all of that helps to offset. But specifically, do we have pass-through mechanisms? And those depend on the different contracts that I've sort of indicated. But there are contracts that would have a specific material-change clause. And yes, we've initiated some of those. That -- and those would be on the term contracts that we have, where we've got a multiyear contract in place. In some parts of the business, where I talk about that -- the 2-week price increase process, that's really just our position relative to the rest of the market. So the fact that these cost pressures are widespread and our competitors are [ wearing ] the same, we're competing in the end market. And we need to recover and pass through some of those cost inflation aspects, and I suppose, so do our competitors. So our focus is to make sure that our relative position is better. And we're working hard to work on those cost reduction opportunities and to grow the volume, which will sustain that for us.
Mark Topy
analystGreat. And just lastly, I suppose, again, in general industry, we've seen most recently, foreign companies come in and buy Australian food companies and most recently, yesterday, in the agriculture space. So I suppose my question is, do you think that is a positive in terms of potentially the expansion of Tassal via the Cooke acquisition? And also, is there any risks that you see that with the multinational coming in, that they might have preferred supply agreements that might disturb existing relationships, if you like? So is it a positive or negative in terms of foreign companies coming in and making these acquisitions?
Quinton Hildebrand
executiveWell, [ it might be true ] but just -- yes. Sure, sure. Just answering that generically, I think we're seeing a trend in -- where we are seeing the trend ongoing in Australian agriculture, where we've seen consolidation and larger production facilities attracting the capital and the technology deployment and those kind of things. And by and large, I actually see those as advantageous for Ridley because with these larger, well-capitalized players comes higher expectations and more is expected from suppliers. And Ridley is well positioned to meet those expectations and to partner and integrate with those larger operating units. So I think, at a sort of generic level, that's very positive. You referred to the Tassal arrangements and the announcement by Cooke yesterday. I think our sales to Tassal are more around the prawn business as we're not prominent in salmon anymore. And so our location to their facilities, the products that we have with Novaq and the like, I think that's how we've got to differentiate ourselves. And I think, that will be our value proposition to Cooke as well. So yes, we'll engage with that go-through. We will engage with Cooke on those opportunities. So that might open up other opportunities for Novaq internationally. So by and large, I see consolidation and greater technology and sophistication as a plus for Ridley. It helps us partner and extract -- support the extraction of value up the supply chain.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions]
Quinton Hildebrand
executiveRenan, I'm assuming that there are no further questions then.
Operator
operatorThank you, ladies and gentlemen. There are no -- sorry, sir. We have a new question from James Ferrier with Wilsons.
James Ferrier
analystI thought we're going to wrap up there. I did have one quick one for Richard, if I may. Just on the depreciation, Richard, it dropped a bit into the second half. We can understand why it declined year-on-year for the full year with the exit from Westbury, but declining second half on first half. What are you expecting for the year ahead, given that run rate?
Richard Betts
executiveLook, I mean it would be -- we're expecting it pretty much to be around the same level into the next year. We only -- the reduction within reality was only 1 month extra of depreciation on the basis of -- because we obviously sold Westbury in August. So it's 5 months versus 6 months. But obviously, there are some growth initiatives that are coming through as well. So I don't see that the depreciation charge will be too dissimilar to what we saw in FY '22.
James Ferrier
analystThat's helpful. And then on the tax rate, what tax rate do you think we should apply to normalize in FY '22, given the big items there? And what's the rate you would expect for FY '23?
Richard Betts
executiveYes. Look, I still expect that in terms of this year, we're at about $29.8 million. So at this point, I'd expect it to be sort of somewhere in the range of $29.5 million to $29.8 million, would be the range that I'd be working towards, James.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from Apoorv Sehgal with UBS.
Apoorv Sehgal
analystJust had a question on EBITDA SKUs. Just if I look at FY '20, second half is about 54% of the full year. FY '21 was about 53% in the second half. FY '22 looks like it's 51%. What's sort of the right EBITDA [ SKU ] first half versus second half we should generally expect for this business, going forward?
Quinton Hildebrand
executiveSo Apoorv, when I've looked at historical, and hard to normalize always, but typically, the first half is sort of 50% to 52%. So typically slightly stronger first half. And that's just to do with some of the different cycles. Aqua, et cetera, coming in, in the first half. And a small amount of seasonality within the Bulk Stockfeeds as well. So that would be the historical. In recent years, we've been growing. And so that's sort of offset that to some extent. And then now, we've also got a little bit of a difference that will happen with Novaq. So -- but that's a relatively minor player. So I don't know if that's given you any sort of context, but marginally strong for the first half is the sort of seasonality event.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from Paul Jensz with PAC Partners.
Paul Jensz
analystSo the follow-up question was for Richard on the insurance side, where the insurance cost's going up quite a lot. I'm interested in order, this move to phase that in Guernsey is a material issue? Or is it something that just is not minor in these kind of things?
Richard Betts
executiveLook, I mean that's been done for two reasons, as Quinton said. First is from a risk management perspective to broaden the scope of the insurance pool. But the other side of it is we -- obviously, everyone's experienced cost pressures. And so it is about managing cost for us. The reality is, by moving to this model, though, that has helped us to keep our insurance at the current levels. And we would expect that as we continue to focus on using the captive that hopefully, it will be a tool that will enable us to take out any of those big cost increases that have been seen in the past. So certainly, it's been very successful this year in terms of -- in a challenging insurance environment of ensuring that we've been able to remain where we were, in fact, with a very slight reduction.
Operator
operatorThere are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Hildebrand for closing remarks.
Quinton Hildebrand
executiveThank you, Renan, and thank you to everybody. I would like to acknowledge the shareholders and the analysts who are supporting Ridley as we go through this journey to deliver the potential of the company. And thank you for your questions today and for your attendance. Thank you very much.
Operator
operatorThat does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect your lines.
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