SAF-Holland SE (SFQ) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the SAF-Holland SE H1 2022 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference call will be recorded and published on the corporate website of SAF-Holland SE. [Operator Instructions] Let me now turn the floor over to your host, Mr. Michael Schickling.

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everybody, to our H1 2022 results presentation. Joining me today are our CEO, Alexander Geis; and our CFO, Wilfried Trepels. Alexander Geis will start with the development of our regions, Wilfried will provide some more details on our key financials, followed by Alexander Geis again, updating you on our guidance and current development. After the presentation, we will be happy to take your questions. Today's call is limited to 55 minutes. Please note that management's comments during this call will include forward-looking statements which involve risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and the presentation and in our annual report. All documents relating to our H1 reporting are available on our website. And now without further ado, over to Alexander Geis.

Thank you, Mr. Schickling, and good morning, everybody. We can look back on a very successful second quarter of 2022, and raised the outlook for the financial year, which we already announced, as you might know, on July 28 as part of an ad hoc announcement. But first, let me start with the most important KPIs for the first half year of 2022. With EUR 773 million, we achieved record sales in the first half of 2022, to which all 3 regions contributed. With an adjusted EBIT margin of 7.2%, we were below the previous year's level of 7.7% at the half year point, but we were able to significantly reduce the EBIT margin gap compared to the first quarter of '22. The investment ratio was 1.4% in the first half year of '22, the same level as in the previous year. Due to the continued good business development and still tense logistics chains, the net working capital ratio increased from 14.8% to 17.4% compared to the end of last year, but Wilfried will give you more details later on. H1 cash flow from operating activities amounted to a positive EUR 18.8 million. Adjusted earnings per share improved by 21.7% to now EUR 0.84 compared to previous year. And I will come back to the increase in the forecast for group sales and adjusted EBIT margin for the 2022 year, at the end of the presentation. Let's start with group sales. Group sales in the first 6 months of '22 reached EUR 773 million due to higher demand, marking a significant rise of 27.2% compared to the previous year's EUR 608 million. After eliminating the effects of exchange rates and acquisitions, sales increased by 21.3% to now EUR 737 million. All 3 regions contributed to the strong increase in sales with the Americas and APAC over proportionately, and our aftermarket business continued to be very strong. In the second quarter of '22, group sales improved by 25.1% to now EUR 403 million. After FX and M&A effects, sales increased by 17% to EUR 377 million, and all 3 regions contributed to this. And also our aftermarket business, again developed very positively. Let's take a look on the different developments in the regions, and by customer category. From the 2 top pie charts, you can see that our sales in the Americas outgrew the other regions, making now a solid 36% of total sales. The 2 lower pie charts show you the development by customer group, especially in the trailer segment, we grew a strong 60% of total sales now. And this is mainly driven by a strong increase in air disc brake axle sales in North America which, by the way, is very good for our aftermarket business in the following years. And speaking of aftermarket, we were able to keep up the high aftermarket sales share with 27% of our total group sales. Let's take a look on the adjusted gross profit margins. In the first half of '22, the adjusted cost of sales rose by 30% compared to previous year to now EUR 645 million. And this was mainly driven by high steel prices as well as high freight and energy costs, which are passed on with the time lag. The decrease in the adjusted gross profit margin was caused by our EMEA region. Here, price adjustments and efficiency improvements could only partially compensate for the cost increases. And in the second quarter, the gross profit margin improved significantly compared to the first quarter. Adjusted cost of sales increased by only 25.9% to now EUR 334 million while the adjusted gross profit margin of 17.2% almost reached the previous level of 17.7%. The strong development of the Americas region, initial price adjustments in the EMEA region and the robust aftermarket business, we're already able to compensate for most of the cost increases. Now coming to the adjusted EBIT on the next slide. So we were able to increase our adjusted EBIT in the first half of 2022 by 18.4% to now EUR 55.6 million compared to the EUR 47 million the year before. This means an adjusted EBIT margin of 7.2% versus previous year's 7.7%. And this decline is due to weaker performance of the EMEA region. We will hear about that just in a second. The significantly lower admin and research and development cost ratios were able to naturally compensate for the higher cost of sales ratio. And specifically in the second quarter, significantly lower admin and R&D expense ratios more than offset the higher cost of sales ratio. The strong performance of the Americas and APAC regions, a robust aftermarket business and price adjustments in the EMEA region contributed to the improvement in the adjusted EBIT margin from 7.8% to now 8%. Let's speak about EMEA. Sales in the EMEA region improved by 17.3% to now EUR 423.5 million in the first 6 months of 2022 driven by a strong trailer OE business and our aftermarket. Adjusted by FX and acquisition effects, sales growth of 15.7% to now EUR 417.6 million was recorded. I would also like to mention that after a successful test phase lasting several years, with over 500,000 kilometers in a wide variety of climate on several continents. Pre-series production of our SAF TRAKr recuperation excellence successfully started in June 2022 at our plant in Bessenbach, and series production will also start this year. In the second quarter, sales improved by 11.6% to now EUR 250 million. Adjusted for exchange rate and acquisition effects, sales growth of 7.9% to EUR 208 million was achieved. In addition to a strong trailer OE business, the aftermarket business also developed very positively. Coming to the adjusted EBIT on the next slide, high steel prices as well as high freight and energy costs, which are passed on with a time lag had a very strong impact on the cost of sales ratio and boost on the gross profit margin in the first half of 2022. The lower share of admin and R&D costs could only partially compensate for the higher costs. In total, this led to an adjusted EBIT of EUR 23.5 million or 5.5% EBIT margin. So coming to the second quarter, even higher steel prices as well as higher freight and energy costs continue to weigh heavily on the cost of sales ratio, and on the gross profit margin. The initiated price adjustments showed their first positive effects in the second quarter. The lower share of admin and R&D costs could again only partially compensate for the higher cost of sales ratio. So in total, this led to an adjusted EBIT of EUR 13.4 million on adjusted EBIT margin of 6.2%. Compared to the first quarter, this means an improvement of 1.3 percentage points. But nevertheless, and this is clear, we have to work on coming back and to recover our margins in the remainder of the year, and we already initiated some action plans. Now coming to a very good story, which is the Americas. So in the Americas region, sales increased by 42.8% from EUR 194.7 million to now EUR 278.1 million in the first 6 months in 2022. And here, adjusted for FX, sales improved by 29.3% to EUR 251.8 million. The trailer OE business achieved a clearly overproportional sales growth and market share gains, especially in the air disc brake axle segments. The aftermarket business again developed very solidly. And also to mention, in Mexico, the new assembly line for fifth wheel for aftermarket fifth wheel went into operation, enabling us to further expand our aftermarket business in North America. Coming now to the second quarter of 2022, I can report that sales increased by 44.6% from EUR 104.5 million to now EUR 151.1 million. Or the year adjusted for currency effects, revenues improved by EUR 28.2 million to now EUR 134 million. And here also, the sales growth was driven by a strong OE business and our aftermarket. And in order to meet increasing customer demand, we expanded production capacities for our trailer axles in the U.S., and we are already fully booked for the remainder of the year. Americas adjusted EBIT, you can see that the cost of sales ratio in the Americas region improved significantly due to lower material and personnel expense ratios as well as price adjustments. In addition, a significantly lower share of admin R&D had a margin-enhancing effect. So in total, this led to an adjusted EBIT of EUR 24.8 million or an adjusted EBIT margin of 8.9%. And the improvement of the adjusted EBIT margin by 3.4 percentage points is due to the strong business development, efficiency improvements and our strict cost discipline. Our adjusted EBIT margin improved by 2.1 percentage points in the second quarter compared to the first quarter of 2022 due to higher volumes and the robust aftermarket business, and this is a great development for us. Now coming to our APAC region, starting with sales again. So our APAC region generated revenues of EUR 71.8 million in the first 6 months of 2022, strong growth. Adjusted for exchange rate effects, sales increased by 30.7% year-on-year to EUR 68.5 million. The main reason for this significant increase in sales was the strong growth in the trailer OE business mainly in India, but also in Australia. The pace of growth accelerated again in the second quarter of 2022, as you can see, the APAC region achieved revenues of EUR 37.5 million in Q2 which correspondence to growth rate of 48.2% compared to the same quarter of previous year. Also here, adjusted for currency effects, sales increased 39.3% year-on-year to now EUR 35.3 million. And in order to meet the increase in customer demand in India, production capacities will be increased by 50% in the first step. We already reported during the last couple of Q announcements. And the new production facility in Pune will start its operations during the first quarter of 2023. Last but not least, coming to the adjusted EBIT of the APAC region with more credit news. So compared to the strong increase in sales, the increase in cost of sales was quite low. The significantly lower sales and admin cost ratios also had a margin-enhancing effect. And therefore, our adjusted EBIT improved from EUR 0.9 million last year to now EUR 7.3 million, or to now an adjusted EBIT margin of 10.2%. Also here, the margin improvement of 8.5 percentage points is based on the strong business development, efficiency gains and also here a strict cost discipline. The stable margin development in the second quarter of '22 was based basically on the same factors. So basically, we clearly mastered the turnaround in APAC now. And here, we'd like to pause for a second and hand over to Wilfried for a detailed walk-through of our financials. Thank you.

Yes. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Coming now to the profit and loss statement with the adjusted numbers. First of all, what were the adjustments. The adjustments in the first half of 2022 were EUR 6.9 million compared to EUR 21 million, where in the first half, it was EUR 5.7 million. So what is the content and what's the difference? So first of all, it is EUR 1 million, more or less the same for restructuring cost as it was last year. Furthermore, the EUR 4.6 million, which was also the same number in 2021 for depreciation of purchase price allocation. And in addition, in 2022, with EUR 1.3 million, that was due to the valuation of the put option the acquisition of the outstanding shares in PressureGuard, which is a company which we will take over fully within the next couple of months. So Alex has already elaborated a lot about sales and gross profit. So let's have a look here at the SG&A cost. The SG&A costs were, in percent of sales, very favorable. It was 9.5% compared to 11% in the compared 2021 first half. But if we look a little bit more in detail, we see EUR 73.2 million compared to EUR 66.9 million, which is a significantly increase of 9.4%. And even higher, the increase was in the Q2 2022. If you look to the right-hand side of this sheet here, then you see the 16.1% increase. So what's the reason, therefore? If we go back to the first half and the 9.4%, you can easily calculate this through. And you will find out that with round about 1/3 of the cost in the U.S. dollar region, we can calculate around about 50% of the 9.4% are due to the U.S. dollar effect, which was just, by the way, EUR 1.093 in the first half 2022. And in the first half 2021, it was EUR 1.205, so significantly increased. And the other 50%, which is 4.7%, is the real increase when we compare the first half 2022 with the first half of 2021. So the next slide shows the share of net profit of investments accounted for using the equity method. This is our joint venture, [ FWI ] in France and in Mexico we have this cooperation now since decades. And you see also here good development also, there they are doing nice profit here in a good environment. All of this leads to the EBIT, the respective EBIT, which was already discussed by Alex in detail. So what about now the financial results? You find it 2 lines below. Financial result is EUR 3.3 million, significantly lower by EUR 1.1 million compared to the first half of 2021, where it was EUR 4.4 million. And all of this is coming also out of the Q2 numbers. If you have a look on the right-hand side, you see EUR 0.5 million compared to EUR 2.7 million. So the difference is EUR 2.2 million, and this is mainly due to FX profits, 50% realized, 50% unrealized. So then this ends in the results before taxes. And then let's have a look to the income tax. The income tax is quite stable to 26.8% compared to 26.7%. Turning now to the next slide. We see the equity development as well as the equity ratio. Let's have look first to the numbers in euro before we get to the equity ratio. You see that the equity was increasing since December last year from EUR 371.1 million to EUR 431.1 million end of June this year. This is an increase of 16%, respectively, EUR 60 million. Where does it come from? EUR 31.1 million are coming from the usual profit contribution of the period, EUR 34.4 million from the difference from translation because of the FX situation, and another EUR 10.2 million of other comprehensive income. Let's have now a look to the balance sheet. So the balance sheet went up from EUR 115.3 million to EUR 156.4 million end of June. This is an increase of 14%, and this is mainly because of the acquisition of the Haldex shares to prepare the merger and to further increase in net working capital. Coming now to the equity ratio. You see that the equity ratio went up from 36.6% end of December last year to 37.3% end of June, which is only an increase of 0.7 percentage points. And this is due to the fact that, as I said before, the equity increased by 16%, but unfortunately, the balance sheet increased also by 14%. Coming now on the next slide to the net debt EBITDA ratio. So first of all, I would like to address the question to myself, where do I feel well as a CFO of a company. And I need to say that this is if the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio is below 2. And we have achieved this now since a couple of quarters. And this is, however, a good development. Having said this, I also -- I'm also a strong believer that this target should be reached also after a potential acquisition of Haldex of the combined group. Also, the combined group has to be at a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2 or below in 2024. So where are we today? Today, if we look to the numbers, the EBITDA went up from EUR 114.3 million in Q2 2021 compared to the Q2 2022, with EUR 131.6 million. This is an increase of 15.1%. And on the other hand side, the net debt increased from EUR 200 million end of June 2021 to EUR 238 million, which is an increase of almost 19%. So overall, the company has a strong gross liquidity position, and we have sufficient financial headroom for further growth. Coming now to the elements of the net working capital. Starting with the inventory. The inventory, as the stocks are going up due to higher volumes in the business, accompanied by higher safety stocks, and this was leading to higher days inventory outstanding and higher stock levels of now EUR 237 million. But a further more details to this number. We see a big potential here because we have achieved in the years before, better numbers. Why were the numbers in 2021 and 2022, not as they should be? Because we had a really difficult situation in the supply chain. And now we see a normalization of these supply chain issues, and therefore, we need now to work heavily on the reduction of the inventories. And our target is clearly to come to numbers which we have achieved before. And if you look to the bar, the first bar in the inventory chart here, you see the Q4 2022 level, it was 58 days. Assuming we would have achieved 58 days also in Q 2022, we would have at least here a potential, which is a little bit below EUR 50 million, exactly calculated EUR 46 million, and we would like to achieve here at least more than 60%, which we would like to realize until the end of December of this year. If we look to the trade receivables there, we see not a very specific development. They are in total with EUR 184.6 million up due to higher business levels. But when you look to the days of sales outstanding, this is a good development. Last view here to the trade payables. The trade payables have been above 60 days, which was always a good number for SAF-Holland. We are now down to 51, 58, 53. And we are now going to achieve a better number, back to the 60 days. Why is it now, not in our favor? Because we have also paid our liabilities a little bit earlier due to the situation that it was difficult to get the material in as we wanted. So consequently, we find on the next slide, the development of the net working capital. Net working capital is too high, and it reached an on-time high level of 17.4% in percent of total sales. I talked already about the developments here. Just what I want to say is that we have now in our cash scheme program, a continuation with a strong focus on inventories to reduce the days of inventory here and the days -- inventory outstanding. We have defined in July the targets for each legal entity and for each plant in a legal entity, and we have done this for OE as well as for the aftermarket business. So coming now to the results of what we have seen before on the next slide, the cash flow. The cash flow was EUR 18.8 million compared to last -- first half in 2021, not so bad with EUR 18.8 million compared to EUR 15 million. But the question is, why do we not get more cash out of an EBITDA of over EUR 70 million, and how to measure this. The cash conversion rate of today and compared last year is 26%, and 22% the year before. If we are able to manage our net working capital better, we would get clearly a better cash conversion rate. And I think that it is necessary to do because we are today hiding our cash flows in the inventory. So the target should be here to get to a conversion rate to 60% to 70% as a potential. Looking now to the free cash flow development. So the difference here is CapEx as well as the acquisition of the Haldex shares. And therefore, from a positive EUR 18.8 million net cash flow from operating activities, it turns down to the opposite of minus EUR 18.7 million for the free cash flow. And the difference is -- CapEx was EUR 10.1 million and the acquisition of Haldex shares with EUR 28.4 million. And the same is -- when you look to the quarterly development, EUR 24 million was positive, looked quite well, but it also turned down to minus EUR 8.7 million due to EUR 5.3 million CapEx and EUR 28.4 million for the acquisition of the Haldex shares. And I would like now to hand over back again to Alex for the outlook 2022.

Thank you, Wilfried. So now let's have a look on the market expectations for full year 2022. So basically, in the commercial vehicle markets relevant for us, as SAF-Holland, the outlook in 2022 remains favorable. Clearly, industry experts expect a 7% decline in production for the European trailer market as a whole due to weaker production figures in Eastern Europe, which still would be on an all-time high. Heavy truck production is likely continue to be affected by limited semiconductor availability and some supply chain interruptions. But we have not seen any major order cancellations in EMEA, and I can report that our fabs in Germany are fully booked into Q4, and Turkey is fully booked into the year 2023 already with a continuous high order intake. For North America, ACT expects trailer production to be robust for the full year, which we can confirm, while truck production is likely to continue to be impacted by the limited availability of semiconductors for the remainder of the year. However, also on a very high production rate. Brazilian truck market with no further growth to be in 2022, but also here remains on a very high level, which is good for us. The Indian trailer market should grow by 69% -- another 69% according to estimates by SIAM, which is also a very positive development for us. Since, as you might know, we are the clear market leader in trailer axles and trailer suspensions. As said before, we are increasing our capacity there, specifically India as reported before, to keep up with the high demand we see there. So now coming to the outlook, what does that mean for the full year of 2022. So based on preliminary figures for the second quarter of 2022, with the Management Board of SAF-Holland SE has decided on July 28 to raise the guidance for group sales and adjusted EBIT margin for the financial year 2022. The implications of a potential massive energy shortage in Germany have not been considered as these cannot be reliably determined or quantified at present. Based on the current order backlog and the projections for both the macro economy and the industry, the Management Board is forecasting after weighing up potential risks and opportunities that group sales for the full financial year of 2022 will be in a corridor of between EUR 1.4 billion and EUR 1.5 billion. And based on these assumptions, SAF-Holland now projects an adjusted EBIT margin of somewhere between 7% and 8%. To support our strategic objectives, we are planning investments of 2% to 2.5% of sales for the 2022 financial year as well. The focus of investments is to increase existing production capacities in Turkey and India as well as a new greenfield operation in Mexico. Furthermore, the company plans to keep investing in efficiency enhancing measures mainly in Germany and in the U.S. And with this, we close our presentation. Thank you very much for listening, and we are delighted to take your questions. Thank you.

[Operator Instructions] And the first question comes from Jorge González Sadornil, Hauck Aufhäuser.

So my first question will be around your expectations for trailer in EMEA for the full year. In the table that you have shown us, it is shown at all for the region of 7%. But I was curious what is the expectation for your production? Which range are you taking into consideration? And in connection with this question, if you can comment us a little bit on the difference between the assumptions of your low rents, and high rent guidance for 2022, please.

Okay. I'm going to take the first question with the trailer development in EMEA. Well, yes, basically, the forecast is a minus 7% for the whole year of 2022, but please take into consideration that 2021 already, at least, for us was the absolute record year with the output of trailer axles being supplied and produced, and being supplied in the EMEA region, mainly the European region, of course. So we are coming from a very, very high level. We saw a good trade Q1, also Q2 was pretty good. We reported already that we are fully booked until the end of the year into 2 German production plants, the axle production facilities we have. And Turkey is already booked into Q1 2023. And there specifically for the Turkish plant, we see a quite high and stable order intake, specifically for our excellence for Europe. This is 1 thing I can report. So basically, to summarize it again, the 2 plants in Germany are booked until end of the year. Turkey is booked into Q1 2023 with a very high order intake. From a personal perspective, and what I get in talks from [ fleets ], they're waiting a little bit for further investments. Order intake is coming in, but don't forget there was really a shock in the second quarter. All the prices increased dramatically, steel, scrap, flat steel, rubber, freight in out everything. So everybody was a little bit nervous, and we see orders are coming in. Yes, not at the pace as we saw it last year in Q1. But again, to summarize that, we are booked out, and we see a very successful 2022. Does that help?

Of course, yes. Yes, my second question was around the assumptions implicit in the guidance, especially between the 7% and the 8% EBIT margin. And it also -- just a final question. If you can give us your opinion on next year outlook for trailer, especially in U.S., what are your expectations if you think we might see a couple of softer quarters, with the economic slowdown or in the same way then with the truck industry, if you think the aging is going to help to see business at the same levels that we are seeing now. Thank you very much.

Okay. Your question regarding the spread of 7% to 8%. If we look to the numbers of today, the first quarter was showing 6.4%. Second quarter is 8%. So overall, we are now at 7.2%. We have seen very strong development, as Alex explained to you, in India, Australia, but especially in the U.S. top line as well as quality of earnings are quite good. And as Alex also said, our books are filled. Also the books of our customers are filled in the U.S. So there is no doubt from our side that you -- that the Americas will run further good also supported by the Brazilians. You might remember that we have bought KLL a couple of years ago after a certain time of integration. They are now on a very, very good level. And they are producing good turbine, and also excellent profits. On the European side, we have seen also that was shown by Alex, that the poor Q1 EBIT margin was 4.9%. We were able to increase to 6.2%, and we are hoping that this is going further due to 2 aspects. One aspect is the further positive top line regarding the quality because we have increased prices, and the price increases are coming through. On the other hand side, we hope that the supply prices go back. So we saw a slow down in the price increase. We hope that it will turn into further decrease of prices for materials. And -- so from this perspective, we believe that we can do 7% to 8% for the total year in 2022.

Jorge, let me add, before I come to your question specifically to the trailer industry in the U.S., also add some more light here. You can see from our figures that we clearly now achieved a turnaround in the Americas. If you go back many, many years like '15, '16, you remember that we were at always like 8% to 9% margins in the Americas. And this is a margin level we would feel very comfortable with. Internal issues. We struggled a little bit '17, '18. Now we did the restructuring. The team is doing a great job over there. And as you can see, the reported Q1 and also the Q2 result is really favorable. So check mark, APAC. Losses last year. This year, first quarter 10-ish percent. Second quarter, another 10-ish percent. So also a good development. And please don't forget, we still struggle a little bit in China. We reduced the losses heavily, okay? But we are not happy with our China operations. What we did, we took some new experts on board, and they are gaining momentum. So we've got some bigger deals, specifically for air disc brake axles. They won some special projects in China. We restarted some export activities, so the clear target is for next year to get better to reduce the losses further and achieve breakeven. And if we would be doing this, then there is a big potential to go back, but to even increase the margin. So possibility is there. But the biggest trigger is EMEA. Go back the last couple of years, '16, '17, '18, '19, even '20 double-digit. We struggle now this year because this massive increase specifically in Q1, and then another massive increase in Q2 in all kind of costs, and the time lag of passing on this. This is a big burden. And I think this is a big burden, not only for us, but for everybody in the industry because you cannot increase prices from one day to the other. You have contracts. There is a delay in the quarter, 6 months heavily working on that, but there should be the clear target, of course, to come back to normal margin levels in EMEA. And if you would be doing this, EMEA, back to normal levels. turnaround achieved in Americas, as you can see now with the 2 good quarters, the 2 good quarters in APAC then we should be really successful going forward. So this is 1 comment from my side. U.S. I'm very much involved myself in the trailer development in the U.S., not only for existing business, like for mechanical suspensions, air suspensions, but specifically for the air disc brake. Why is that the case? There is room for improvement. The market is growing. We want some more tenders. Big tenders for air disc brake axles equipped on trailers. And we, for sure, think that the air disc brake will further increase the share of air disc brake in the future in -- specifically in North America. We can see this. We are a market leader in air disc brake. We want to keep that leadership and grow with the whole market. So therefore, we already now in summer in July. And now in August, increased our capacity in our existing axle plant in Warrington, which is close to St. Louis, to keep up with the demand. Here, we are fully booked until end of last year. And from talks with the trailer manufacturers, some of them are booked in Q1, some of them already in Q2, and especially trailer manufacturers until middle of next year. So I don't see a huge drop -- possible huge job specifically in that industry because you still have the tariffs for China imports which boosts the economy in the United States or in North America, specifically in our industry because of the 25% import duty and there is another big, big hurdle for container chassis export from China. In the U.S., it's basically came to a standstill because you have to pay more than 250% import duty. So all the North American trailer manufacturers picked up this additional business, and now building the own trailers. So I'm very happy and keen to get more orders also for 2023, and this is why I said we increased slightly our capacity to match the demand, which comes in with a good satisfying margin. Plus air disc brake population creates a much higher, better aftermarket business, not only from a sales perspective, but also from a margin perspective. And this is why, historically, Europe was better in margins because we had this really high volume and good margin on this aftermarket with a good margin. So I'm optimistic and positive for the trailer development in the U.S. or North America for next year.

The next question comes from Philippe Lorrain from Berenberg.

I've got like a few. If I can come back to the comments that you're making on the trailer market. And you were saying that 2021 was an absolute record year for you, perhaps you can put a bit in context like the overall market with regard to historical levels, and also past levels.

Well, what I can say, Philippe -- this is Alex again. What I can say, it was a record year when you speak about the European output, okay? The best output year before in terms of numbers of actually was 2018. So in 2021, we increased by another roughly -- yes, close to 7%, 8% on top it comes to total axle output or production, that was really, really good. We already now in the first half year, increased it further, okay? Another record levels in total output. Even if now -- and this is what I said before, the market would be going down by 7% in the whole year of 2022. This would be pretty good and still on a very, very high level. We are planning with that. Our plants are running, as I said, booked until end of the year or Q1 next year. We run 6 days a week, 24 hours. So happy to do so. Meanwhile, the supply chain constraints are a little bit better, okay? So we have more access and better access or timely access to our components, which makes our planning much better. So the efficiency should come back also in the second half year. And this is why I said before, even with a negative 7%, or a decline of 7% to be expected for Europe this year. This is still a very satisfying number for us, and you can see that from the numbers. Now we have to work on the EBIT. I explained it before, but I could face that we come back to normal levels as we showed the last couple of years as well.

It was just to try to understand as well how the volumes could develop perhaps into next year because you were speaking about the fact that customers have been perhaps like a little bit on a wait-and-see mode. However, it seems overall like the mood would be relatively cautiously optimistic, if I understand your wording. So I was wondering whether we like peak, and perhaps like facing a more significant contraction or whether we could be at peak and perhaps just plateau or even expect increase over the following years.

Well, I don't have a crystal ball and speaking of 2023, specifically trailer in Europe. We do our planning. As I said, we are booked [ 6, 24 ] in both -- in the 2 both German plants. Order intake is okay. We have a high backlog of order on hand. That's a good thing. And I have to say, everybody was shocked in the second quarter after this Ukraine conflict, war started. And all the raw material prices just skyrocketed. So the whole industry was really shocked, and it was crystal clear that also the [ antis ] and the ultimate user is the fleet. They are shocked as well because they had to face all of a sudden price increases in a double-digit region, and this is a big pill to swallow. The market is there. Transportation goes on. The volumes are there. Infrastructure projects are going on. So -- but if we would only see a plateauing in '22 and '23, we would be really happy to see this.

Perhaps we can also have a look at the situation in Russia, respectively, Ukraine. The impact was here, especially for the standard trailers, curtainsiders. And when we look who is mainly impacted we can see that these are the big ones who are producing these massive numbers of curtainsiders as [ Swedes], for instance, or [ Holland ]. And as you might know, our share in both customers is quite small. So it's also a question if you look at it from a little bit more detailed perspective, then we are, let's say, in this moment, benefiting from this. So on the other hand side, to say we are not so much influenced by this minus 7%.

That's a very, very good add-on actually. And just to follow up, like a little bit on that. So did I understand that correctly that you were mentioning a second price increase in the double digit in EMEA on your side for the product.

No, I didn't say that. I said that due to the shock of the markets and the heavy price increases when it comes to raw materials, specifically in the second quarter of 2022, the end customer, the fleet had to face a double-digit increase in the cost of a truck, for instance, or of a trailer for instance. Our big failure in EMEA, Philippe, is the time gap. We are not destroying our good relationships with long-term customers just because of 1 quarter, okay, we stick together. We are partners. We want to go into the future with them. So basically, there were talks. We found solutions suitable for both sides, and this comes with a time lag. You see that our Q2 numbers in EMEA were already much better than the Q1 numbers. So let's hope -- and we are working very hard on this that we can increase further our margins for Q3, and then for Q4. And then ultimately, in a timely when I come back to a normal margin level in the EMEA, like we have seen in the last couple of years.

Okay. Sure. Would you agree on the statement that perhaps the pass-through of the input cost inflation is much quicker in the Americas and APAC than in EMEA? And if yes, why is that?

Can you say it again, please?

I was wondering if you could confirm that the passing through of the cost inflation happens quicker in the Americas and APAC than in EMEA. But -- and in EMEA -- and if yes, why is that?

No, I cannot confirm that. That's basically the same timely per bit in between, but this massive increase in inflation already happened in Americas in 2021. It didn't so much happen in the full year '21 or beginning for '21 in EMEA. It really accelerated the last quarter, inbound, outbound freight, materials, steel, flat steel. So it was basically starting Q4 2021 in EMEA. It already started beginning of '21 in the Americas. So the team -- and our team in Americas had basically a 6 to 9 months gap, and they started much earlier than we needed to start in the EMEA region. Now we are back on a really good level in Americas, as you have seen, with a high single-digit EBIT numbers. And now, as I said, we are working heavily, and we are -- were already working since Q1 on this in the EMEA region, but then Q2 came. And there was another acceleration in cost inflation popping up.

Okay. Perfect. And also like following Wilfried's comments on the margin target for this year, the 7% to 8%. So do I understand correctly that you are backing in the guidance that some of the input costs are coming down? Or are you just anticipating stabilized, let's say, input costs for the purpose of the guidance, but you hope, of course, in order to reach a even better numbers that costs would come down?

Yes. What we are seeing is that actually the price increases are still there, but they are going down, so they are not increasing further. We see that on the steel side significantly, but it takes also time that it is passed into our components in our products. And that is the reason that we are expecting that this will go down because it's a simple consequence. Also as we have time delays on the customer side, we have also time delays when it goes down on the supplier side. But anyhow, yes, we are hoping that this is going down. And it has a certain effect -- not a huge effect, but it will have a certain effect to get to the 7% to 8%. Yes.

Okay. And I guess the fact that energy prices are still on the rise. It's just perhaps like a smaller portion, of course, of the component price on your side.

Yes.

Okay. Good. And then the last question for you as well. You were mentioning a 60% to 70% cash conversion target. But I think that was when you were more focusing on the operating cash flow. So what metrics are you looking at, when you speak about the 60% to 70% cash conversion target?

I look to the adjusted EBITDA, which we are reporting, and this was around EUR 70 million. And cash conversion rate should be 60% to 70%. Look, if we would not have spent all the money into the inventories, there is a potential of EUR 30 million to EUR 40 million to be added to the cash flow, and then you come easily to such a number where we also have been in the past.

Yes. Yes, sure. So I was just making sure that I was looking at the right metrics. So it's adjusted EBITDA versus operating cash flow.

Yes.

There are no further questions. And so I hand back to Michael Schickling.

Thank you, operator. This concludes our Q&A session. The next following call will be on the Q3 results on November 10. Thank you for joining us today, and goodbye.

Thank you.