SAF-Holland SE (SFQ) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Dear ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the SAF-HOLLAND SE H1 2025 results. Today's presenters are CEO, Alexander Geis; and CFO, Frank Lorenz-Dietz. The presentation slides are available on the SAF-HOLLAND corporate website. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this conference call will be recorded and published on the corporate website of SAF-HOLLAND SE. Everything spoken through the unmuted microphone will be processed during the online meeting and published on the website of SAF-HOLLAND SE. If a participant does not wish to be recorded, they should refrain from participating in the Q&A session and keep their microphone muted. The Q&A session is exclusively for institutional investors and analysts. All other participants of the conference call are kindly asked to contact the Investor Relations team directly if they have any questions. Mr. Geis, the floor is yours.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our conference call and our Q2 '25 results. This is Alexander Geis speaking. And please let me begin with the Q2 '25 financial highlights on Page 3. The past quarter was characterized by continued weak end markets. In figures, this means that our group sales fell organically by 11.7%, which was partially offset by acquisition-related effects and ultimately reached EUR 442.2 million, which is around 13% below the prior year. Nevertheless, despite much weaker OE market environment and additional tariff-related costs, we were able to maintain a solid profitability of 9.1%, while the adjusted EBITDA margin amounted to 12.8%. Operating free cash flow amounted to EUR 0.9 million due to the lower top line development and higher working capital needs also linked to tariff uncertainties. Leverage increased to 2.4x due to the cash outflow of the dividend payments, M&A and additional lease liabilities for our new Texas plant in Rowlett. While order intake in Europe continues to improve, the North American market remains soft and also continues to affect our business in the APAC region. As communicated last week, we have adjusted our full year '25 outlook accordingly. Let me continue with the group sales and adjusted EBIT development on Page 4. Group sales in the second quarter of '25 continued to be impacted by muted commercial vehicle markets in all 3 regions, especially the North American as well as the Asian OE markets were affected by the uncertainty caused by the trade policy discussions, especially post the U.S. Liberation Day in April. Accordingly, OE sales were 16.2% below the previous year's level, which ultimately resulted in an organic sales decline of 11.7% year-over-year in Q2. Moreover, FX effects caused group sales to decline by 2.7%. And in contrast, acquisition-related sales from Assali Stefen contributed a high single-digit euro million amount to top line. Sales in the second quarter declined by 12.8%, and in the first half year was, therefore, 11.9% below the previous year, while group sales declined organically by 12.8%. Between April and June, adjusted EBIT was impacted by additional tariff-related costs in the mid-single-digit million euro range, which we aim to offset as much as possible until year-end. Additionally, the profitability was impacted by a higher level of depreciation and amortization. Hence, adjusted EBIT decreased by 25.7% compared to the previous year's level, resulting in an adjusted EBIT margin of 9.1%. However, keep in mind that profitability in the prior year strongly benefited from special sales campaigns in the aftermarket segment in EMEA and Americas. Overall, during the first 6 months of the year, the adjusted EBIT amounted to EUR 83 million and resulted in a solid margin of 9.3% of sales. The adjusted EBITDA margin reached almost the prior year level and amounted to 13.1%. Moving on to the sales split by region and customer category on Page 5, please. The overall distribution of group sales by region and customer segment was strongly influenced by the investment hesitation of truck and trailer customers in North America and Asia. Accordingly, the EMEA region performed in comparison stronger and achieved a sales share of just over 50%, also due to the acquisition-related sales effect of Assali Stefen. The Americas region, in turn, contributed 38.4% to group sales. Moreover, due to the soft demand in the APAC region, the APAC share decreased to 11.1%. And now looking at the split by customer groups in Q2. Sales in the OE business declined by 16.2% year-over-year to EUR 261.8 million. This decrease was driven by the previous mentioned weakness in global CV markets. Accordingly, the trailer OE segment accounted for 47% of the second quarter sales, representing a decrease of 1.5 percentage points. The truck OE segment, of which a large portion comes from the Americas region, was negatively affected by uncertainties surrounding the U.S. trade policy. And in contrast, sales in the aftermarket business declined by only 7.2% to now EUR 180.6 million. Also here, please keep in mind that the prior year benefited from special sales campaigns and it continues to be a resilient pillar of the SAF-HOLLAND business model. As a result, the aftermarket business accounted for 40.8% of our sales. So next page, please, to speak about the EMEA region. As you can see, top line development in the EMEA region in Q2 remained subdued due to the ongoing softness in the trailer market, which is estimated to have declined between 10% to 15% year-over-year. As a result, sales decreased organically by 8.4% in Q2. Despite this, the aftermarket business remained robust, although it did not reach the strong level of the previous year. For the first half of '25, total sales were 7.5% below the prior year level, including an organic decline of 12.3%. And looking ahead, we continue to observe a slight improvement in order intake for both truck and specialty trailer segments and expect this trend to continue, which should provide a solid foundation for the second half of 2025. Looking at the EMEA earnings due to the lower top line development and despite strict cost discipline, the adjusted EBIT margin declined to 7.9% compared to a strong Q2 '24 that benefited from higher-margin aftermarket sales. As a result, profitability in the first half year amounted to 7.7% and includes a onetime FX valuation effect from Q1. Let's speak about on the next page about Americas. In addition to the cyclical downturn in the North American commercial vehicle market, demand for both truck and trailer was further dampened by the uncertainties caused by the U.S. trade policy. In contrast, the aftermarket business remained robust and resilient. As a result, organic sales in the second quarter declined by 13.3% year-over-year. And furthermore, negative currency effects reduced sales by additional 5.3% year-over-year. Overall, second quarter sales in the Americas region was 18.5% below the previous year, leading to 14.7% decline for the first 6 months of '25. In addition to the decline in earnings caused by lower top line in the second quarter, we incurred additional costs related to the U.S. tariff issue amounting to a mid-single-digit million euro figure. As a result, adjusted EBIT, therefore, decreased by 31.7% compared to the previous year, leading to a still solid double-digit adjusted EBIT margin of 10.2%. Despite the challenging market environment, this marks the 10th consecutive quarter in which we achieved our strategic target of maintaining double-digit margin in Americas. Looking ahead, we expect that the additional tariff-related costs on the procurement side can be largely compensated. For the first half of '25, the adjusted EBIT amounted to EUR 37.5 million, which equals a margin of 10.8%. Last but not least, coming to the APAC region on Page #8, where the market momentum in the APAC region remained muted in most of the countries, partially due to investment hesitation in course of the discussions of the U.S. trade tariff policy and especially in Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam and Thailand, they paused their trailer activities for the U.S. market. Moreover, the [ Indian ] trailer market remained soft due to the [ post ] economic expectations, also difficult financing positions for fleet operators and trailer manufacturers as well as continued weak mining business in [indiscernible] Asia. Accordingly, sales in the second quarter of '25 amounted to EUR 49.2 million and was 24.3% below the previous year, which means an organic decline of 18.4%. Moreover here, negative currency effects reduced sales by 5.9% year-over-year. Looking at the bottom line, the decline in earnings was mainly driven by a lower top line in higher-margin markets such as India and Australia. Despite ongoing market softness and uncertainties related to tariffs, we achieved a solid profitability level of 10.8%, marking also the 10th consecutive quarter with a double-digit adjusted EBIT margin in the APAC region. Overall, we closed the first half year with adjusted EBIT margin of 11.1%. And having said this, I hand over to Frank for the key financials in Q2.

Yes. Thank you, Alex, and hello to everybody on the line. As usual, let me start with a short overview on the EBIT to adjusted EBIT reconciliation for the group on Page 10. As previously mentioned, our reported EBIT for the second quarter of 2025 declined by 25.6% to EUR 34.5 million, primarily due to a lower top line and additional tariff-related expenses. Total adjustments for restructuring and transaction costs amounted to just EUR 0.2 million, which is mainly related to integration expenses from recent acquisitions. Depreciation and amortization from purchase price allocations were as usual adjusted accordingly and in total, EUR 5.6 million. Consequently, adjusted EBIT fell proportionately, resulting in an adjusted EBIT margin of 9.1% for the second quarter 2025. Despite the additional burden from tariff-related costs, the adjusted EBITDA margin for the first half of '25 nearly reached the prior year level with 13.1%. Moving on to Page 11, where you see the bridge from EBIT to basic earnings per share. As mentioned earlier, reported EBIT amounted to EUR 34.5 million for the second quarter of 2025. Within the finance results, the interest expense reduced due to improved financing structure, overall debt reduction and in general, lower interest rates. This was offset again by unrealized foreign exchange rate effects as in Q1, mainly due to the weaker U.S. dollar against the euro. While this presented a temporary headwind, these are noncash effects that may reverse in future periods, and I will provide you a more detailed explanation on the next page. In addition, income taxes declined in line with our top line development, but were adversely affected by noncapitalized deferred tax assets on interest and loss carryforward. As a result, the overall tax rate stood at 38.9% for the second quarter and 36.8% for the first half of the year. Overall, reported EPS was negatively affected by both the weaker top line and the unfavorable currency development. Moving on to a more detailed view on the financial result on Page 12. The financial result for the second quarter amounted to minus EUR 17 million and benefited from a significant reduction of interest expenses of approximately 28% compared to the prior year. This positive development was mainly driven by a general decrease in the average interest rate, improved refinancing conditions as well as a slight reduction in gross financial debt despite recent M&A activities. However, the continued weakness of the U.S. dollar related to the euro led to negative unrealized foreign exchange rate effects, primarily on intercompany loans. The U.S. dollar alone accounted for an unrealized FX effect of minus EUR 8 million in the second quarter 2025. Additionally, other currencies contributed to a further negative impact of around EUR 0.7 million. As announced during the Q1 call, we have initiated several mitigation measures to reduce the impact on these fluctuations and aim to complete the implementation until year-end. The first positive effects are already reflected in the Q2 financial result. That said, we recognize that these currency issues negatively affect our underlying profit for the period. Therefore, we will make the following adjustment to our future dividend calculation. I'm on Slide 13. We are going to adjust the profit relevant for distribution under our dividend policy to the extent that the available profit will be adjusted by unrealized exchange rate effect in the financial result and its related tax effect based on the overall group tax rate of the relevant period. To say that pretty clear, the payout ratio remains unchanged at 40% to 50% of the distribution relevant available result for the period. On this slide, we provide an exemplified calculation on the potential impact based on half year numbers. With that new calculation, the distribution-relevant EPS changes from EUR 0.50 per share to EUR 0.77 per share and reflects a reasonable base for dividend calculation. Moving to Page 14, where you see the development of the equity ratio. Compared to the year-end 2024, equity decreased by 11.8%, respectively, EUR 62.4 million to EUR 464.7 million despite the result for the period due to the dividend payment of around EUR 39 million as well as negative FX valuation effects amounting to around EUR 36 million. Since the balance sheet total declined by only 2.2%, the equity ratio declined to 27.7%. As communicated already in past presentations, our internal target related to equity ratio remains higher than 30%. With our solid profit-generating business case, we will reach this again in due time. Turning to Page 15. I would like to speak about net working capital development. Net working capital at the end of June 2025 was impacted by several effects. As long as the OE business remains weak, the aftermarket business with its generally higher inventory requirements will remain relatively strong. Furthermore, we were trying to maintain higher stocks in markets where we expect short-term opportunities in order to be able to react quickly if chances arise. In addition to the seasonal-driven increase of inventory between December and June, we adjusted our net working capital levels as a precautionary measure due to uncertain trade policy. As a result, net working capital increased by 9.9% to EUR 320 million compared to the end of December and included factoring in the amount of EUR 40 million. As a result, net working capital ratio stood at 18.2% of sales, also reflecting the overall top line development. And now let me address the cash flow development on Page 16. The net cash flow from operating activities in the first half year amounted to EUR 30.5 million and was impacted by the market-driven decline in EBITDA as well as by net working capital developments, as just explained earlier, and it's comparatively higher cash outflow compared to the prior year. Paid income taxes declined, reflecting the lower top line development in previous periods. Moreover, investment in property, plant and equipment and intangible assets totaled EUR 22.2 million, equivalent of 2.5% of sales. These investments were primarily directed towards further automation and modernization of production processes, preparations for the new plant in Rowlett, Texas and capacity expansions for ADB and fifth wheels at the Düzce in Türkiye. Overall, we achieved a solid positive operating free cash flow of EUR 9.1 million in the first half year with room for further improvement in the upcoming quarters. Moving on to an overview of the leverage development on Page 17. The net debt-to-EBITDA ratio rose to 2.4x at the end of June. This increase was primarily driven by rise in net debt, including almost EUR 20 million in lease liabilities, mainly related to the new Rowlett factory, which is scheduled to open in the coming months. In addition, net debt increased due to a lower cash position resulting from various payment obligations, most notably the dividend payment and the acquisition of the remaining 40% share of the Haldex India joint venture. EBITDA also fell to EUR 235.3 million, reflecting lower sales due to current market conditions. However, based on further improvements on net working capital as well as potential business recovery in EMEA and APAC, we target to improve leverage stepwise in the upcoming quarters as our leverage should be below 2x. And now also, let's take a quick look at the maturity chart on Page 18. With the successful placement of a strongly oversubscribed promissory note loan, which attracted demand more than twice the offering volume and secured interest rates at the lower end of the marketing range, we are now in a position to fully redeem the tranches maturing 2025 and 2026 as well as repay the outstanding drawdown of the revolving credit facility. In total, the transaction generated proceeds of EUR 330 million. This strengthens our maturity profile and positions us well for future M&A opportunities. Having said that, back to you, Alex, for the outlook and closing remarks.

Yes. Thank you, Frank. I'm on Page 20, showing the full year '25 forecast for the trailer and truck markets. So during the first half of the year, the truck and trailer markets have been impacted by investment hesitancy due to the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the U.S. tariff policy, especially in North America and also in Asia. Accordingly, we currently anticipate both truck and trailer markets in North America to be 20% to 30% below the previous year's level. Following a strong performance in '24, the Brazilian trailer market developed weaker during the first half of '25 and is expected to remain soft. We now forecast a decline of 10% to 20%. However, our strong focus on steering axles and trailers equipped with such components means we are less affected by that general market development. So for the Brazilian truck market, we revised our outlook downward, we're expecting a decline in the range of minus 5% to minus 10%. In contrast, in China, the commercial vehicle markets have regained positive momentum. We now expect a stable or moderately growing development for 2025. Our outlook for the Indian trailer market remains unchanged, with an expected development in the range of 0% to minus 5% compared to 2024. However, we expect a recovery towards the end of the year. Our market expectations for EMEA remain unchanged. In EMEA, we saw a positive order momentum in both truck and trailer and expect the continued demand in the second half of the year. Overall, as you have seen last week, these expectations led us to adjust our 2025 guidance, which brings me to Slide #21. In light of the market developments outlined before, we have revised our group sales guidance and now expect group sales of around EUR 1.8 billion and expect a positive impact from the recently announced order to supply swivel axles for military transport equipment and improving momentum in Europe and towards year-end also in APAC. Furthermore, due to the weaker performance in our high-margin regions, Americas and APAC, and the higher relative contribution of the EMEA region to adjusted EBIT, we have also revised our forecast for the adjusted EBIT margin, which is now expected to be around 9.3%. And last but not least, the CapEx guidance remains unchanged at up to 3% of group sales. Ladies and gentlemen, let me conclude the presentation with some key takeaways on Page 22. So the uncertain global trade policy environment weighed on our top line performance year-to-date, which is evident in North America and Asia, where market conditions for trucks and trailers were impacted negatively. Unfortunately, these external uncertainties continue to cloud visibility and undermine the market outlook for the remainder of the year. On a more positive note, excluding additional tariff-related costs, our underlying profitability developed solidly, which underscores the strength of our operational fundamentals even in a volatile external environment, and we are going to largely compensate these additional costs until year-end. Despite lower absolute earnings, we achieved a positive operating free cash flow and remain focused on further optimizing our net working capital management in the coming months. Looking ahead, we expect gradual positive momentum in Europe and India to contribute to more favorable second half. In addition, our aftermarket business continues to perform robustly and will remain a key stabilizing pillar of our performance in the coming quarters. So ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the presentation, and now we can start with your questions.

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Nicolai Kempf of Deutsche Bank.

It's Nicolai from Deutsche Bank. A couple and maybe I'll take them one by one. The first one, you've stated that you expect the leverage to be again below 2x. Is this going to happen until the end of the year?

No. The leverage of 2.4, we have this lease, as I mentioned, the Rowlett topic with EUR 20 million lease liability in addition, the work on improvement on net working capital and net debt, and it will take some quarters to improve below 2, but it remains our target.

Okay. Understood. The second one would be on the guidance, which basically implies that H2 will be a bit stronger, I think it's 2% versus H1. And you said that Europe is improving, APAC is improving. I just want to make sure that these 2 regions are enough to offset the very soft market in North America.

Yes, Nicolai, you are totally right. We are totally unhappy with the development of the market in the U.S. But still Canada and Mexico are doing good, South America. Also for us, it's basically just the U.S., which is our biggest CV market. And then it's also the truck business, which is unfortunately getting softer. But I can tell you that the order intake for -- specifically for axles but also for fifth wheels on the truck side for Europe is getting much better. So basically, we shifted -- we are fully booked here in Bessenbach with 2-shift operation now. We shifted really a lot of orders to our Turkish plant, which is also booked now in 2 shifts, which is good. So we have to bring all the material out. So Europe alone will compensate the North American or U.S. decline. And then also from Australia, we see positive signals in the mining there. Southeast Asia is getting slightly better, and India is our biggest market from a sales perspective. We are waiting for the monsoon to be over, so late Q3 and beginning of Q4. Here, we got the hit specifically due to the U.S. tariff situation. So internally in India, the market is okay, but we also did a lot of export business, as I outlined before to customers in Southeast Asia like Vietnam, like Thailand, they were manufacturing trailers for the U.S. market and they have now duties of 46%. So they stopped rapidly in India, and we have to get the market back specifically in India. So this then overcompensates the losses in North America. But the positive signal is the order intake here in Europe, which continues. We are fully booked until October now, which is okay.

Understood. And my last question is also again on the guidance. And basically, I am a bit wondering why you are guiding to narrow. Basically, last year, you had to adjust the guidance 3 times. Now we also adjust the guidance and it's August, there's still a couple of months to go. And with this new U.S. administration, everything seems possible. So I'm wondering why are you guiding to narrow? And why didn't you consider a wider bandwidth of guidance here?

I think this is a bit of a philosophic question. We are in July. We have now basically 7 months in the books, guidance taking sales of EUR 1.8 billion is reflecting a range from [ EUR 1.750 billion to EUR 1.850 billion ]. This is the EUR 100 million range. I think this is a quite solid guidance. Doing it in a broader range, one could do this, but then the question is if we have any idea how our business is developing. For sure, there is always in every guidance where it's a risk and the market uncertainty this year is higher in terms of FX development, in terms of whatever happens in tariff restrictions and so on. But assuming to continue the year as it was running so high, I'm feeling quite good with this way of guiding our business.

The next question comes from Yasmin Steilen of Berenberg.

I have three, if I may, and I will also take them one by one. So the first one on the business environment in the U.S. So you have further cut your volume forecast for North America for the truck and the trailer industry. Can you share any early indications on the current trading? So have the OEMs extended the summer holidays? Or are there indications that they will do so? And might there be the requirement for you also to reduce the shift in the second half in the U.S.? That's my first question.

Yasmin, this is Alex. I'm going to answer your question. Well, there's only one reason. This is the President of the United States. He's shaking the whole world, but also U.S. I was traveling heavily in the U.S. this year, also in the second quarter and spoke to a lot of trailer manufacturers, but also truck manufacturers, but ultimately to fleet operators. They have a lot of cash. They are willing to invest. They have to invest because after 2 years of a decline in the market, specifically in the trailer market, they would like to renew the fleet, but they are -- they want a solid foundation of making decisions. And at the moment, they have no clue how it looks in the next 4 weeks because the tariff policy changes overnight every day. And so they cannot count on the fundaments of their decision-making. And this is basically -- this is the saying of 9 out of 10 fleet operators. They're saying we need to invest. We'd like to renew the fleet, we have the cash, and we're ready to go, but we don't know how it looks in the next month. And this is basically very uncertainty or a lot of uncertainties for these guys. So I hope that in the following weeks and months, the whole tariff discussions with all major countries in the world will be fixed also with EU, with India, with all the other big suppliers to the U.S. and then you can make up your calculations. And then from there, we expect the orders to come in. Nothing to do with pausing and not -- or the truck manufacturers not building anything. It's the fleet operators who make the ultimate decision, and they are just waiting to have the basis of making the decisions right.

Okay. Then maybe staying in the U.S. on the truck disc brakes business. So during your Capital Markets Day in March, you have mentioned that SAF received the certification by 2 U.S. truck OEMs, so besides the business you're already generating with the Scandinavian truck OEM. Can you provide more color on the development and if when we can expect additional sales from truck disc brakes to come?

Well, we already have a little bit of additional air disc brake truck business in the United States. We -- as I said, we started now to be spec-ed in the spec books of the truck manufacturers, but not of all the truck manufactures. So the team is working heavily on also get the specs in the books for the remaining truck manufacturers, specifically with the big ones. So as I said, the teams are working on that. This will not happen overnight because this is a like 3- to 4-year journey. We already started last year. We see first positive signs. And then also here, we would like to offer a fleet spec. So basically, we go to the fleets, we convince them our brakes are lighter, better, availability for rear axles in the trailers, but also the front axles in the trucks would be the same or nearly the same or some components will be the same, so they would have a benefit. They are available, and we are working on this heavily.

Okay. And then the next one on your military order you've announced just earlier this week. How should we think about the profitability of the OE business? And could you also talk a little bit about the competition in this segment?

Well, we would not speak about profitability of single orders, of course. But as most of you might know, military contracts come with a slightly higher profitability than the normal business. And then also speaking of swivel axles, that's a very special heavy-duty application. They typically come with also a higher profitability. So it's pretty good that we do that. We are going to start supplying in the last quarter of this year until middle -- at least middle of next year. We are also working on some more tenders for the same customer, but also for customers in Europe. So there are a couple of tenders out and to be out very soon, where the different countries in Western Europe demanding the transportation or the transportation builders of heavy-duty military trailers to quote. So they are out, and I expect specifically in '26 that more are coming also in the -- not even -- not only in the high 7 single-digit region, but also a little bit higher, so 8-digit region. There are some more tenders coming out, and we are ready for this. We have the capacity. We can build them here in SAF, but also can build them in the Tecma production facility in Italy. So more to come. And we are working aggressively on getting those tenders.

And with whom are you competing on, on these tenders? So are these the usual suspects? Or are there also some special companies involved in this?

There are only a few companies who can manufacture those specialties. On the U.S. side, basically, there is none and because we are spec-ed and on the European side, there's only like 2 or 3.

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from Jorge González Sadornil of Hauck Aufhäuser Investment Banking.

The first one is around the guidance. I would like to follow up on the question that Nicolai already did. And trying to understand the midpoint of this guidance of around EUR 1.8 billion. Can you share with us what are your assumptions, for instance, in North America for truck and trailer? Because I see in your Slide 20, I think now the ranges that you are providing are quite conservative, taking into account the data that other OEs and other companies in the sector have provided like [ more brands ] and other truck manufacturers. So I would like to understand if this EUR 1.8 billion is basically taking into account the worst of this new range or the midpoint of the new range, it is possible. That will be my first question, please.

Well, then we would have said we exactly will hit the EUR 1.8 billion, EUR 8.1 billion is just the middle we did in our new range. To be honest, we don't know how the U.S. will develop. This is all depending on the tariff situation. We got so much shaking in the second quarter in the U.S. We got also hit, where we imported some components from areas where the U.S. put some tariffs on starting from April 1, okay? I told you that it's in the middle of a -- well, it's basically EUR 4 million to EUR 5 million where we got the hit with the tariff situation. And we also supply to OE manufacturers, both trailer and truck, and we have to pass it on, but you cannot do that within 1 day. So we are in discussions with some. We already found agreements with some, we are still in discussions. And as I said before, we would like to get the margins back. So our burden we got from the tariffs in the second quarter within Q3, latest Q4. We're working on that. And ACT currently is at around 25% minus for both truck and trailer. So this is why we said minus 20% to minus 30%. ACT is minus 25% in both in average. It all depends, as I said, on the tariff situation and how quickly the U.S. administration is finalizing the tariffs with the major import countries or supplying countries. And then our customers, which are the fleets will restart immediately with ordering new trucks and trailers.

Okay. Thank you for the color. My thought here is that with such a low comparable the second part of last year, you are more cautious also because of the FX and you are not -- I mean, as negative as, for instance, ACT for -- especially for trailer. I think I know truck is completely impossible to predict. But in terms of trailer, we are not at already really low levels of production because to me, 20% to 30% taking into account the levels of last year, it sounds, I mean, like you can go on holiday at this point already. Like it's really low levels, taking into account the numbers of other players. It has to do with maybe also a better development from your site last year in the second part of the year compared to the market. I mean do you have any higher impact than other players because of your highest exposure to disc brake or has nothing to do with just to be on the safe side?

Well, we always would like to be on the safe side, as you know us, a little bit on the conservative side. But also please keep in mind that we have a relatively high aftermarket share of sales in the Americas, okay? So that share is a little bit higher than we have it in Europe versus OE due to the Haldex base sales we are having in the aftermarket and also our [indiscernible] business in the United States with 3 dedicated plants doing so. So yes, we are dependent on the trailer market in North America. But if you see aftermarket is the biggest contributor, then we have the truck business and then the trailer business. Trailer is really bad at the moment. Nobody is buying anything. Container chassis is down by 95%. And as I said before, I repeat myself now the third time, everybody is waiting on decisions by the U.S. government and then they can do their planning and then they can reorder. And they have to reorder because the trailer market is down now for nearly 2 years. So everybody needs to reinvest as they have to reinvest in Europe because the peak was in '22. So '23 was okay, '24 wasn't a good year. And '25 so far, the first half year was also look good, and this is why we see now a big increase in orders for trailer OE here in Europe, but also in Turkey. We shifted a lot to Turkey. But again, for North America, we never had an impact like this coming from the tariffs. So we will see. We are cautious. If it's getting better, let's say, in Q3 and then in Q4, it would be even better for us. But the dominant sales contribution comes from the aftermarket in Americas for us, which is very stable.

And taking your look at the situation from a positive angle that I think it makes sense now as you were mentioning, the down cycle have already extended for longer than usual in U.S. and also in Europe. So I'm wondering, in Europe, so for next year because I imagine that also in your assumptions, you are considering rather stable demand still for this year. But next year, what we can expect with these investment plans supporting demand potentially in Germany and in other countries in Europe? How do you see the pickup of demand in Europe? Do you any view on how the market can grow compared to this year? Because we were -- I think if I'm not wrong, we were last year like 20%, 30% below the typical average demand in the last 3 years. So how do you see the improvement in a gradual way? Or do you think we can see a strong jump at some point because the low...

First, I think that the market is going up. It needs to go up because, as I said, the last 2 years, the markets were really down. So the trailer builds in Europe were really down and the markets have to go up. Everybody wants to invest. The money is available and interest rates in Europe are much lower than in the rest of the world. Take interest rates like in South America, now they are at 15%. This is crazy, like India, 10% to 12%. Turkey, you cannot even get a credit. But in Europe, specifically in Western Europe are still very, very good to get credit lines at a low interest rate and also the fleets would like to renew it and they have to renew the trucks have an average age, which is higher than normal and specifically the trailers, they are higher. So as I said now, in the second half, we see already an increase in orders coming in. And talking to the fleets, they would like to get more trailers in their fleets back in to renew the fleet. So I personally think that 2026 will be a better or even a much better year than the last 2, 2.5 years, like second half of '23, '24 and the first half of '25.

And I think the demand in defense equipment and so on that gives us some orders related to heavy-duty transportation, it's a signal that as well as the programs, the money the government, the European government will put into defense, we will also benefit from that. And if then this is -- if it is in Germany can take a bit more time. We start to invest in infrastructure. This goes again into construction companies, to business where we are really strong in the market. So there is a lot of positive opportunities in front of us. The question only is when will it really kick in.

And when will the money be released. The government, they have to do the tenders. Tenders take time. As we can see now with the military business, they already announced that last year. It took now nearly 1 year until the tenders were finished and we start shipping. So it's a little bit of time delay, but I think 2026 in Europe specifically will be a good year.

And very quick -- 2 very quick ones. On the remedies for the tariffs, this extraordinary cost that you had in North America has to do with materials you need to buy from different sources? Or it's more about moving production? I mean there is a risk that you cannot recover this? Or it is a question of time?

You mean the tariff implications we had in the second quarter?

Yes. This extraordinary cost that you have around EUR 2 million, I think it was.

EUR 4 million to EUR 5 million, we said. And basically, we have always a dual-source strategy, okay? So we need at least 2 suppliers for 1 component to not be dependent on 1 supplier in case something happens or to get the huge pressure from the supplier to increase prices on their end. So always dual or, if possible, a triple-source policy, and we also buy from low-cost countries, of course. And then April 1, the U.S. administration came out, okay, we're going to put now 55% tariffs on China, for instance, or more on India or Brazil or some other areas of the world. So we had to -- on this day, if we imported stuff and there was still stuff on the water hitting the ports after April 1, we had to carry the additional tariffs, so the customs duties and you cannot pass on to the customers immediately within 1 week or 4 weeks. Most of the times in the aftermarket, we have a delay of 6 to 8 weeks. That's a contractual thing. And with the OEs, that's a minimum of 3 months. So basically, as I said before, we solved some of it. Aftermarket is easier to solve than OE. And with OE, now we are working on that. But as I said before, we are very confident that the majority, I think not everything, but the majority of those extra costs related to the tariffs in the second quarter, but also in the third quarter now will be passed on to our customers in Q3, so latest in Q4 for Q2 then.

Perfect. And very last one on APAC. Obviously, we were -- I mean, we were not probably conscious of the share of exports that APAC was having into North America through the Southeast client, Asia clients. So I'm wondering if you can give us a rough range for how much this sales represent? And is -- what was the contribution in Q2 just to understand if we are already at the -- potentially at the floor of the revenue in APAC or if there is still some potential additional impact in the following quarters?

Also here, Jorge, I have to say it again, the U.S. administration is still discussing with a lot of Asian countries to fix the tariffs. The only one they fixed now is Japan. And -- but they didn't fix Vietnam, Thailand, India. India is still a big hassle because they said this is a secondary tariffs due to the Russian conflict we are having. They are still buying a lot of oil, and they said last week, it's going to be 25%. This week, they said it's going to be 50% if they don't stop supporting Russia. We can't count on this, and our customers also do not count on this because imagine you manufacture trailers, you got to ship it over to the U.S. And then after 6 weeks, your products hit the port and the day before, the U.S. administration says, now it's 50% tariffs. So nobody is bringing anything on the water right now until everything is settled and fixed and they can calculate. So we have to wait for this. And we have quite some export share from India, as I said, to those South Asian countries, manufacturing trailers and components for U.S., but we also have now developed axles for the U.S. market made in India because China with 55% tariffs is very high. We have the products ready. But now with the 25% or maybe 10% or maybe 50%, we paused all the activities. We didn't ship anything to the U.S. right now because, as I said before, we face the risk. The day we hit the port, we get 50% tariffs. So we don't do that at the moment. We are waiting until the final decision has been made by the U.S. government. Not gambling [ it all ].

[Operator Instructions] There seem no more questions to be incoming. So with that, I close the Q&A session and hand over to CFO, Frank Lorenz-Dietz.

So thank you, everyone, for the questions. The Investor Relations team is available in case of any follow-up questions. And we will be, as always, on the road and attending conferences in the coming weeks, and look forward to seeing you there. Thank you.

Thanks, everybody.